Yankees Get: Homer Bailey, Bill Bray, Juan Francisco

Reds Get: Rafael Soriano, Brett Gardner, rights to Hiroyuki Nakajima, $6 million

For the Reds: The Reds are in a good position to contend in 2012 and they know it. The NL Central has been weakened, having lost arguably its two best hitters in free agency, and, regardless of the ridiculous package they gave up to get him, Cincinnati has improved with the acquisition of =Mat Latos.

One thing the Reds lack, assuming they’re smart enough to realize hat Aroldis Chapman belongs in the rotation, is a closer. Francisco Cordero and Ryan Madson are old and pricey, which could make the shorter commitment to Rafael Soriano attractive. He pitched well in the 2nd half of 2011 and the Yankees eating about 1/2 of his 2012 salary would sweeten the pot. The Reds would be betting that he’d pitch well enough that he’d decide not to cash in on his 2013 option, but that’s a fairly decent bet, especially if he’s adding to his value by collecting saves, which general managers care about for some reason.

Brett Gardner is a great fit for the Reds. He’d be a high quality table-setter in front of Phillips, Votto and Bruce. He’d also improve their defense in center field by pushing the below average Drew Stubbs to left.

As of now, Cincinnati would go into the season with Paul Janish or Zack Cozart as their starting shortstop. If they can sign him and if he can field the position, Hiroyuki Nakajima would probably be an upgrade over either of those two.

For the Yankees: I thought about asking for Mike Leake instead of Homer Bailey, but I can’t imagine the Reds doing that. At any rate, with Latos, Johnny Cueto, Leake and Bronson Arroyo locked into rotation spots, Bailey seems like the odd man out if Chapman pushes his way in. That’s a shame, because Bailey can pitch. Despite being labeled a “bust” so far, he’s shown steady improvement the last couple years (3.75 FIP/3.74 xFIP in 2010, 4.06 FIP/3.77 xFIP in 2011), and he’s still only 25. His health remains a question mark and “Homer” is a pretty terrible name for a pitcher, but he’s got swing-and-miss stuff that could get AL East hitters out.

There are two ways to solve the Yankees left-handed relief problem. The first is to abandon the LOOGY concept entirely, but since that isn’t happening, the next-best bet is to get lefty relievers who can actually get lefties out. Despite struggling with his control, Bill Bray held lefties to a .557 OPS in 2011. With Sean Marshall on board he’s fairly expendable for Cincinnati.

Finally, Juan Francisco’s a decent 3b prospect who could serve as A-Rod’s caddie and get more and more time there as the Centaur transitions to DH over the next couple years. Francisco’s played a few games in the outfield in the minors, so he’d be worth a look there as well.

This trade would be a gamble, but if the Yankees want to avoid high-end free agents and still preserve the farm system, they need to start gambling.

Yankees Get: Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing

Twins Get: Eduardo Nunez, Hector Noesi, Austin Romine and Kevin Whelan

For the Yankees: Without any impact front-end starting pitchers left on the free agent market, and with the asking price sky high on 2's and 3's like Gio Gonzalez and Jon Danks, the Yankees should be looking at low risk, high reward type pitchers who have something to prove. Francisco Liriano fits that bill nicely. While his results were mostly awful last year, his 4.54 FIP wasn't quite as terrible as his 5.09 ERA and he had an outstanding season in 2010. In his final year of arbitration, he's cost-effective, having earned under $5 mil in 2011, and should be highly motivated as he approaches free agency. He has the potential to deliver a #2 starter type season, as he did 2 years ago, and also the potential to flop. If he flops, though, he won't earn enough that the Yankees would stubbornly leave him in the rotation.

At 28, Brian Duensing doesn't have much of a future as a starter, but he does own a slash line of .203/.248/.263 vs. left-handed hitters in 430 plate appearances. Boone Logan isn't an awful reliever, but the Yankees need a lefty in the pen who can actually get lefties out. Duensing should be able to fill that role.

For the Twins: Having lost Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, with Justin Morneau's future uncertain and with Joe Mauer's future at catcher equally uncertain, the Twins should be in complete rebuild mode. They have so many holes that they should be somewhat willing to accept a package that edges more toward quantity than quality, especially for Liriano and Duensing who don't carry a ton of trade value.

Eduardo Nunez is a fit with 37 year old utility man Jamey Carroll currently penciled in as the starting shortstop. If Nunez can improve his throwing he should be a decent major league shortstop, which the Twins need as they wait for prospect Miguel Sano.

Hector Noesi would have a good shot at Minnesota's rotation.

With Joe Mauer's health always in question, the Twins could use a backup catcher who can hit better than Drew Butera and catch better than Ryan Doumit. The could also use one who might evolve into a starter if Mauer makes a permanent switch to firstt base when Morneau's contract expires after 2013.

Kevin Whelan seemed to finally get his stuff together in AAA last year. With the Yankees surplus of right-handed power bullpen arms, it's unlikely that he'd make much of an impact here, but he could ascend to the back end of Minnesota's bullpen pretty quickly.

With the World Series over and with while to wait before the hot stove league really kicks into full force, MLB will try to entertain us by giving out their yearly awards stretched out over a ridiculously long period of time. I'd love it if they did it all on one night at some sort of awards show the way the NHL does now.

Anyway, here's who probably will win and who should win:

AL Manager of the year

Will Win: Joe Maddon. They'll give it to him for the way they came back to catch the Red Sox.

Should Win Same.

NL Manager of the year

Will Win: Tony LaRussa. For the same reason as Maddon and also for getting his team to the playoffs without its ace.

Should Win: Kirk Gibson. I'm biased because I was a big fan of his as a player. Nobody really picked the D-Backs to finish over .500 let alone win 94 games. He got better performances than expected from his starters, but still they dominated a mediocre division.

AL Rookie of the year

Will Win: Jeremy Hellickson. He got his ERA under 3.00 at the end of the year which virtually guarantees him the award. He also had a strong 1.15 WHIP which voters will recognize.

Should Win: Same. I'd love for it to go to Ivan Nova, and the case can be made in that he had a better FIP than Hellickson did. However, Hellickson's lights out September as the Rays were reaching for the playoffs clinches it for him.

NL Rookie of the Year

Will Win: Craig Kimbrel. I don't think I remember a rookie closer having a better season. 46 saves and a Robertson-esque 14.8 K:9 make him a shoe-in. He faltered toward the end of the year, but only due to blatant overuse.

Should Wn: Same.

AL Cy Young

Will Win: Justin Verlander. Not much to argue with here.

Should Win: Same.

NL Cy Young

Will Win: Clayton Kershaw. Same as Verlander. Not much to argue with.

Should Win: Same.

AL MVP

Will Win: Justin Verlander. From what writers have been chirping this year, it seems like they really want to give it to a pitcher. I guess this would be the year to do it, since he did tie for the league lead in WAR. However, with Miguel Cabrera hanging around you could argue that he wasn't the MVP of his team.

Should Win: Jose Bautista. Tied for the league lead in WAR, led the league in homers and OPS. The fact that he was routinely pitched around kept his run production numbers down and he didn't play for a contender which is why old school voters will keep him from winning, but he deserves to.

NL MVP

Will Win: Ryan Braun. Really nothing bad to say about him. He went 30-30 and led the league in OPS.

Should Win: Matt Kemp. Again, nothing against Braun, and to me this one is really really close, but despite not playing for a contender, Kemp was the best player in the NL this year. He had a ridiculous 10.0 WAR which led the majors. He trailed Braun in OPS by .006 but played his home games in a much, much tougher pitcher's park. He also was far better defensively and played a tougher position.

Alright, I know it's a bit early for an off-season plan, but I just thought I'd jot down a few points that I'd like to see us pursue.

1. The Big Man - C.C. has to be re-signed but in a realistic way. I don't want to see us bid against ourselves the way we did with A-Rod. Yes, he will cost gobs and gobs of money and we need him but that doesn't mean we should offer double what any other team would even dream of. I think 6/144 is realistic. We'd he signing him through age 37 (a mistake) but not through age 40 (an uber-mistake). You have to overpay for greatness and despite his recent playoff struggles, C.C. is a future hall of fame pitcher who's still in his prime.

2. What Comes After the Big Man - I'm going to assume for these purposes that Felix Hernandez is not available and thus there is no reason to trade Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Nova, etc. That leaves Yu Darvish and C.J. Wilson as candidates for the gaping home at no. 2. As intriguing as Darvish is, the Yankees aren't in a position where they need to take the greater risk. Wilson has hardly any innings on his arm at age 31 and there's history of relievers-turned-starters being effective well into their 30's (Wells, Leiter, Lowe). Texas will want him back and he'll cost probably 5/100 or 6/115, but Darvish will cost more than that with the posting fee.

3. Wacky trade idea - A.J. Burnett for Jason Bay. I refuse to believe that Bay is done and he could slot in at DH and both corner OFs for the Yankees when necessary. Burnett has pitched well vs. the NL the past few years (albeit small sample size). It'd basically be a "it's not working here, lets try something else" swap but I think it would have  the potential to work for both teams.

4. I want Jesus Montero to catch. This means we should tender Russell Martin and trade him for something of value which I think would be highly possible. I'd think either a higher-end lefty reliever or a #4-type starter. In the meantime, sign a veteran backup catcher (a la Jose Molina, Jason Kendall) and keep Austin Romine in AAA waiting in the wings.

Right now, the AL rookie of the year battle is probably between four pitchers - Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, Jordan Walden and our own Ivan Nova. Objectively speaking, Nova's probably in fourth place out of the four, but the margin really isn't all that wide. A strong finish could make him the first Yankee to win the award in 15 years.

                                                               ERA           WHIP           FIP           IP

Nova                                                     3.97             1.38           4.18         129.2

Hellickson                                             3.01             1.16           4.16         149.1

Pineda                                                  3.73             1.11            3.51         147.0

Walden                                                 2.72             1.19           2.37           49.2

Nova trails his competitors in ERA and WHIP and he's thrown fewer innings than the other starters thanks to spending most of July in AAA, through no fault of his own. On the other hand, voters may be impressed by his win total. If he ends up with 16 or 17 wins, irrelevant to his performance as it may be, that's not something accomplished often by a rookie. Voters may also give Nova extra credit for the fact that he's now being asked to perform as the 2 or 3 starter on a playoff-bound team.

Hellickson's very good, but he's also pitched to some good luck this year, as evidenced by the fact that his FIP is right around Nova's. A .236 BABIP is probably not sustainable, especially pitching half his games on artificial turf.

Pineda's the statistical leader, but after a great first half he's started to struggle. In the six starts he's made since the all star break he's got an ERA over 6 and he's averaging 2/3 of an inning less per game. The Mariners may try and start cutting his innings further, since he's already over his career high in the minors.

Walden's 26 saves probably make him the leader in most of the voters minds for now. For whatever reason, relievers have fared better in rookie of the year voting than they have in Cy Young voting. He does have 9 blown saves, though, and he'll likely only end up with around 60 innings pitched.

There are a few position player candidates who deserve a mention - Mark Trumbo, Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley - but these guys have either not played enough (Ackley's only played in 59 games) or not set themselves apart enough (Trumbo and Hosmer are 1st basemen with OPS's under .800). The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year will likely be a pitcher, and there's an increasing chance that it will be Ivan Nova.

This past weekend my girlfriend and I drove 900 miles to Chicago to see the Yankees take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Here are a few things I picked up along the way:

1. Wrigley is great. Despite its age, they keep it in excellent condition, unlike a certain festering hole in New England. The place is clean and the seats have been replaced more recently than the Cubs last championship. You're free to walk around the stadium without being hassled by security guards demanding to see your ticket, and during batting practice you can go all the way to the front of you like. Cervelli was the only player who paid much attention to the many Yankee fans who were there at BP. Mariano was busy creating the heavens and the earth.

I wouldn't rank Wrigley as my favorite park, but it's a totally different baseball experience than anywhere else. There are no loud noises or gimmicks or giant video boards. It feels like you're watching the game the way people watched it 97 years ago, which is a nice change.

2. Cub fans are weird. They talk big but deep down they're very pessimistic.

"Let's Go Yankees" chant starts.

Cub fan: "Yankees suck!"

A-Rod comes up as the tying run.

Cub fan: "Here it comes. Tie game."

They also don't know when to get excited. On every line drive and on every lazy fly ball there's either a huge cheer or a loud groan depending on who hit it.

3. There are Red Sox fans EVERYWHERE. Much like cockroaches. I've never been to a game anywhere, no matter who's playing, where I didn't see at least one Sox hat, and in this case there were a lot more than that. I'm sure there's some Red Sox fan on a board somewhere saying the same thing about Yankee fans.

4. Ohio is big. And has many cows.

If anyone hasn't heard, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery and is out for the entire 2011 season. Bad news for St. Louis. Good news for New York. Why? Here goes...

The Cardinals have lost their no. 1 starter. They still have a decent rotation, but without much depth now. Jaime Garcia pitched well over his head last year. They have the best 3-4 punch in baseball in Pujols and Holliday, but their lineup is pretty barren otherwise unless you're a big Colby Rasmus believer. They also have the Pujols contract distraction to contend with. In the NL central they'll have to compete with the Reds who beat them at full strength last year and the Brewers who added 2 frontline starters during the offseason. I'm not writing the Cardinals off, but I think there's a pretty good chance they'll be hovering around .500 in July.

Chris Carpenter makes $15MM this year and he has a $15MM club option for 2012. $30 mil is pretty steep for a team that needs to pinch its pennies together to keep the best player in baseball around. If the Cards aren't in the race, there's an excellent chance Carpenter hits the trade market. The Cards' farm system is not strong, and trading Carpenter would be a step toward rebuilding it. He'd be a nice resolution to the Yankees' no. 2 starter dilemma.

There are some drawbacks...Carpenter wasn't very good in the AL East, he'll be 36 in April, and he has 10/5 rights, so the Yankees might have to guarantee the option to get him to accept a trade. I'd take on all of these risks. He pitched in the AL early in his career and he's done well in interleague since then. The $15MM option is reasonable, especially considering the lack of front end pitching on the free agent market next year.

What would you give up to get Chris Carpenter in July?

Ok, so the usual Yankee strategy of hurling gobs of money at the best free agent available at the greatest position of need didn't work out this time. It's OK. It's happened before. 18 years ago, Greg Maddux turned down Yankee for the kinder, gentler city of Atlanta. The Yankees instead signed Jimmy Key who was one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL in 1993 and 1994 and outdueld Maddux in game 6 of the 1996 World Series. Four years later Roger Clemens passed up his "lifelong dream" of being a Yankee to pitch in Toronto. The Yankees moved on the David Wells and had arguably the best team in the history of baseball within two years.

So while being spurned by top free agents isn't a feeling the Yankees of the 2000's are used to it's not like it's never happened before. And in these two instances it didn't turn out all that badly. With Cliff Lee donning red pinstripes instead of navy ones, it's time to figure something else out.

One piece of good news is that we don't need an ace. An ace starter is the hardest thing to find in baseball and we already have one. Sure it would have been nice to have two, but we don't necessarily need someone as good as Cliff Lee. We just need someone to pitch well enough to save the bullpen from the chronically short outings of Burnett and Hughes.

A few pitchers to consider. I'm leaving out Zack Greinke and Matt Garza because I don't think either one is all that realistic, and they've both been talked about enough already. I'm also leaving out guys like Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, etc. because those are pipe dreams.

1. Andy Pettitte. The timetable for him making up his mind needs to be moved up now. With Lee in the fold the Yankees could afford to wait until late January for Pettitte to make up his mind, but now his decision really affects the rest of the offseason. If Pettitte's back, the Yankees can bide their time, hold an open competition for the 5th spot, and possibly wait until July, when more pitchers are available, to make a move, if they even have to make one at all. They might not if Hughes shows some improvement and if Larry Rothschild is able to get something out of A.J. Burnett. If Pettitte retires, though, I think we all agree we can't go into the season with C.C., Hughes, AJ and two of Joba, Nova, Noesi and Mitre.

2. Brandon Webb. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball at one time, but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's a groundball pitcher - one with a high K-rate - but still a groundball pitcher, which isn't ideal with Jeter and A-Rod slowly fossilizing on the left side of the infield. I'd consider Webb a good risk in conjunction with Pettitte, but not as an alternative to Pettitte.

3. Wandy Rodriguez. I haven't heard his name mentioned a lot and I'm not even sure he's available. However he has the combination of being a FA after the 2011 season and being on a team that isn't going to compete, so I think there's a good chance that he would be. He's been extremely solid the last 3 years and he's very tough on lefties which bodes well when facing Boston's new lineup. He'd be my first choice out of this group.

4. Mark Buehrle. He's popped up in trade rumors the last few days. He's pitched 200+ innings 10 years in a row. You can look at that as being a sign of durability or as a sign that he's about to break. He did have his worst year in a while in 2010. I'd be interested anyway, but I just don't see the motivation for the White Sox to trade him to the Yankees. They have visions on the playoffs this year, and trading one of their most popular players to a team they'd likely face there doesn't seem all that prudent. I think if he goes anywhere it'll be to the NL.

5. Derek Lowe/Carlos Zambrano/Joe Blanton/anyone else with a bad contract. I can see the appeal here for Cashman. I can get a pitcher who will probably give me 200 OK innings without giving up any of my good prospects. The problem with that logic is that there's a reason these guys' teams are willing to dump them for nothing. When you take on someone else's problem, they are more than likely going to end up being your problem. These kinds of pitchers will all be there in July if nothing else materializes, so there would really be no need to make a move on any of them now.

I thought I'd take a break from Jeter and Lee to think about another Yankee area of need. I honestly never thought I'd utter the phrase "the Yankees really miss Damaso Marte." I said just that, though, during the ALCS when it became clear that Boone Logan couldn't get Josh Hamilton out and that Joe Girardi had no faith in him to do so. With Marte out for 2011, replacing, or at least supplementing Logan, with another lefty out of the pen has to be pretty high on the pinstriped priority list. Here are some of the options.

Scott Downs - A consistent middle reliever is one of the rarest things to be found in baseball, but Downs has been just that for the last four years. And he's done it in the AL East. As dominant as he is against lefties (.488 opponents' OPS in 2010) he's also very good against righties (.637) so he can be used for a lot more than just lefty match-up situations. Unlike most effective setup men, he hasn't been ridiculously overworked either. The bad news is that he's probably looking for something similar to the 4yr/18m deal that Joaquin Benoit got, which is too much for ANY middle reliever, especially one that's 34. The other bad news is that he's a type A, and no one in that role is worth giving up a 1st round draft pick for. Still the Yankees should keep an eye on Downs. It's possible that his type A status will drag his pricetag down, and if the Yankees also sign Cliff Lee, he'd only cost a 2nd rounder rather than a 1st.

Randy Choate - I never really thought he'd be heard from again after his uninspiring stint as a Yankee in the early 2000's. Surprisingly he's been pretty effective for the Rays the last 2 years (.569 Opp. OPS vs. lefties in 2010). He's just as bad against righties, though, to the point where you can't even let him face one unless it's a blowout. Choate would be worth considering for a 2yr/4mil type deal if nothing else pans out.

Pedro Feliciano - Basically everything that's true about Choate is true about Feliciano except that he's a bit younger and that he doesn't have AL East experience. Because of that last thing, I'd probably prefer Choate, but Feliciano would also be tolerable as long as it wasn't a big committment.

Hideki Okajima - Non-tendered by Boston today. The question to ask here is whether the real Okajima is the guy who was one of the better setup men in the majors from 2007-09, or if he's guy who couldn't really get anyone out in 2010. It's not a good sign that every year he's been in the majors, his ERA and WHIP have gone up, while his K:9 went down. Generally, I trust Boston's front office enough to say that if they don't want him, neither should we.

George Sherill - A virtual lock to be non-tendered today. Similar to Okajima in that he had a disastrous 2010 but different in that he's 2 years younger and his career's been up and down rather than having a consistent negative trend. Despite his overall struggles in 2010 he was still very good against lefties (.573 Opp. OPS). Unlike the other four guys on this list who are in their mid to late 30's and are all probably looking for as many years as possible, Sherill might be more willing to take a 1-year deal to rebuild his value. I would give him a Chan Ho Park type contract (although it'd probably cost a bit more), where if he stinks you can just eat the money and cut him.

The "28-year-old" ace of the Cuban National team who defected 9 months ago was cleared for free agency today. His stuff isn't as good as Aroldis Chapman but he's a much more polished pitcher. Supposedly he throws up to 94 and has a ton of pitches. The Yankees are said to be among the teams interested, but as always that rumor could be his agent trying to pump up the market.

I'm not sure what the pricetag would be. I was against throwing money at Chapman because he's such a project but Maya seems like someone who can contribute in the majors almost immediately. Given the Yankees lack of quality pitching prospects in the high minors and the fact that they don't have a viable replacement if a starter were to go down, they should be all over this one if the price is reasonable. Maya could be a swing man/6th starter for the rest of this year, possibly replacing Vazquez late in the year if he continues to struggle. He'd be a full-time rotation option in 2011.

I'm not sure if this is worthy of its own thread, but the Nats released Elijah Dukes and as of yet nobody's picked him up. The Yankees should get in on that. Dukes is a headcase, but he's also a very talented headcase and is still only 25 and the Yankees have absolutely nothing on the horizon prospect-wise in the outfield. If Dukes were to play like he's capable of he's better than Winn or Thames and probably better than Gardner as well. Being around the Yankee veterans might help him clean up his act, and if it didn't work out, he'd be easily releasable. Definitely worth a flyer.

First Exam - Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson. The Yankees got themselves a starting center fielder with a reasonable contract, something they'd been seeking ever since Bernie Williams got old. If Jackson ever panned out to be Granderson we'd have all been thrilled and Ian Kennedy would not have gotten a chance to pitch here, so the price was very reasonable. Grade - A

Midterm - Nick Johnson 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd. It's hard to like this move a lot when superior DH's like Hideki Matsui and Vladimir Guerrero signed for roughly the same amount of money. True, NJ has the added value of being able to play a position, and the Giants were going to give him the same contract or more, but that value is negated by the fact that the Yankees won't use him at 1st. The Yankees could have made better use of this position either by bringing back Hideki or signing Vlad, or by using it for flexibility as they originally indicated. Grade - C-

Final Exam - Melky Cabrera and Arodys Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez. It's easy to see why a GM would make this trade. Cashman got himself a pitcher who pitches 200 innings every year who, despite some struggles in the AL, has always had a high K rate and a solid WHIP. Vazquez greatly reduces the possibiity of Sergio Mitre and/or Chad Gaudin starting games in 2010 which is important. Still, although Melky will never be a star his trade left the Yankees lacking depth in the outfield, and Arodys may be a good prospect, though he is a long way from the majors. The other negative is that the acquisition of Vaz keeps Hughes, or perhaps Joba out of the rotation. Grade - B+

So putting all those moves together gives Cashman a grade of B for the 2010 offseason. Not bad coming off a championship and one of the great offseasons of all-time in 2009. Perhaps the greatest success this offseason was not getting entangled in any long-term albatross contracts. This will allow the Yankees to be major players in a much better free agent market in 2011.

Extra Credit - Johnny Damon is still out there and bringing him back would easily bump this grade up to a B+ or A-. Damon's return would create a lineup without any holes and it would put Brett Gardner back in a role where he can excel - defense and running.

It's really not that much of a debate when you think about it.

Point 1 - Joba threw 163.2 innings in 2009 (including playoffs). Hughes threw 111.1 (including playoffs and AAA). Based on the Yankees "40 inning rule" Joba can go 200 innings in 2010 while Hughes would be limited to around 150.

Point 2 - Joba's career as a starter - 12-7, 4.18 ERA, 1.48 WHIP - 43 starts
                Hughes' career as a starter - 8-9, 5.22 ERA, 1.43 WHIP - 28 starts

Point 3 - Joba's career as a reliever - 3-2, 1.50 ERA, 0.98 WHIP - 60 innings
                Hughes' career as a reliever - 5-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.85 WHIP - 51 innings

So Joba's been better as a starter, Hughes has been better as a reliever, and Joba can throw a full season in 2010 while Hughes would be on an innings limit. I feel bad for Hughes because I really think he can be a good starter if given the chance to develop, but when it comes down to one or the other it's a pretty one-sided debate. On the bright side, if Joba succeeds as a starter in 2010, he'd move up into the 3 or 4 spot for 2011, leaving the 5 spot open for Hughes to take some lumps as he develops.

Assuming the Nick Johnson signing becomes official we're looking at something like...

Jeter-Johnson-Teixeira-Arod-Granderson-Posada-Cano-Swisher-Melky

So basically we've replaced Damon and Matsui with Granderson and Johnson. Is that an upgrade? I doubt it. I'd be surprised if Grandy and NJ are able to replicate Damon and Matsui's numbers from 2009. although Damon and Matsui probably wouldn't have replicated that either. Still we're losing 2 guys who were proven in the clutch...2 guys who you really felt comfortable with being at the plate in bit spots. I definitely think that for the $1 mil difference, Matsui would have been a better choice at DH than Johnson.

But maybe this isn't a finished product. Damon/Matsui cost $26 mil last year while NJ/Grandy are costing around 11 mil this year. There's room to add another outfielder, although I have no idea who that would be, and still save money. Maybe they'd still bring Damon back if his asking price drops, although that means he'd be the full-time left fielder again now. There's also room to add someone mid-season if this lineup isn't working out.

That's my prediction for the Sterling home run call.  First on Granderson. I think you can make a case for it both ways, but I like the trade. Granderson's flawed, especially in his inability to hit lefties, but he's great in the clubhouse and he's a better player than he showed last year. I think the Tigers misused him a bit and I think he'll be mpre productive if we're smart enough to bat him 5th, 6th or 7th. Bottom line, if Austin Jackson turned out to be Curtis Granderson I wouldn't have been disappointed so its like getting the reward without the risk.

This tips the Yankees' hand that they're not in on Roy Halladay. I can't believe they'd give up 3 of their top 4 prospects in one offseason.

This move also means that the offers to Damon and Matsui are going to be below market value. It'll be up to them how much they want to stay. If we're really going to do the rotating DH thing we need to build up a pretty strong bench. Otherwise if a starter gets hurt we're looking at 2 weak bats every day. One advantage of not having a regular DH though is that it would leave the door open for Montero to come up and DH in August and September.

A few others have put theirs so here's mine. It may be a little dull, but stick with what works, right?

Rotation: C.C., A.J., Pettitte, Joba, Hughes. Non-tender Wang and re-sign him for 2.5 mil or so. Let Hughes pitch as a regular starter until the all-star break and then move him to the pen and let Wang take his spot. I'd rather not sign Lackey for a couple of reasons. First, I want Joba and Hughes to both get a fair shot in the rotation. Second, I like the free agent pitching market better in 2011. Halladay or Beckett anyone? In case of injuries we have Ian Kennedy and Zach McAllister in AAA ready to get a shot.

If Pettitte retires, which I hope he doesn't, I don't think we need a star, just a solid #3. I'm not a fan of Jarrod Washburn or Randy Wolf for multiple years, but I think the Royals would give up Gil Meche pretty easily and he's only got 2 years left on his contract.

Infield: We literally have the best all-around infield in the history of baseball. No changes necessary. Let Pena be the full-time utility guy.

Outfield: I'd like to bring both Damon and Matsui back, preferably for 1 year each. Unfortunately I think Damon will require 2, which is ok, but if someone offers more than that I'd let him go. Realistically: Damon 2 yrs/18 mil. Matsui: 1 year/6.5 mil. If either Damon or Matsui walk I'd bring back Xavier Nady on a 1 year deal rather than go for Halladay or Bay who I just don't think are worth the contracts they're going to get. I'd give A-Jax a chance to make the team in spring training and let him share time there with Melky.

Catcher: Yes, we'd all like to see Posada DH more but it's not going to happen because we don't, and won't have a backup capable of catching 60 games. Anyone who's good enough to catch 60 for us is good enough to catch 120 for another team given how weak catching is around the majors. I'd let Molina go and make Cervelli the backup.

Bullpen: It would be nice to sign a Rafael Soriano to set up Mo, but he's going to get a closer job somewhere so it's unrealistic. I think the combo of Robertson, Coke, Aceves, Marte can hold the fort down until Hughes joins them late in the season. Non tender Bruney. Non-tender Gaudin because it'd be silly to pay 3 mil for a long man, but try and bring him back for less in that role. Give Mark Melancon a shot to win the final bullpen spot.

So there you go. It wouldn't be a very exciting offseason, but we just won 103 games and the World Series. Do we need an exciting offseason?

All the Joba talk recently brings up an interesting question. At the beginning of the season, the Yankees' plan was to have Joba build up his innings and then move to the bullpen in August while CC,AJ,Wang and Pettitte manned the rotation. If Wang hadn't gone down Joba would be pitching in relief now instead of making 3-inning starts. But Wang did go down and now we're left wondering if Joba can handle game 4's after being messed around with for the last 2 months of the season.

So back to that question. Did Cashman make a huge mistake by not acquiring a compitent back-end starter before August 31st? Jon Garland is the obvious guy since the Dodgers got him for nothing but I'm sure there were other guys being dangled out there who weren't signed for 2010 as well. Hopefully Joba pitches a couple of good games in October and this doesn't come back to haunt us.

Why isn't Phil Hughes throwing 50-60 pitches in a minor league game today so that he can start for the Yankees on Tuesday? I can't understand the logic being used here, that we are going to have to suffer through Sergio Mitre with Hughes sitting in the bullpen. It's not an impossibility that Mitre would pitch well on Tuesday, but there will be starts beyond that before Wang comes back. In 52 major league starts, Mitre is 10-20 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP...in the National League. This is Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner all over again. Solid, but unspectacular AAA numbers at age 28 don't change that.

When the opportunity's there for Hughes to start I don't see why the Yankees wouldn't take it. He gives them a better chance to win and the more times he starts in the majors, the better in terms of his development.

Another bad roster decision.

On the game yesterday, Kay and Cone mentioned the discrepancy between Joba Chamberlain's home and road numbers a few times. They were mostly focusing on his inability to get a win at home, but as it turns out the contrast in his performance as a whole is pretty stark.

At home: 8 starts, 38.1 IP, 0-2, 5.17 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 40 K's, 24 walks
On the Road: 7 starts, 42.2 IP, 4-0, 2.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 33 K's, 16 walks.

So on the road you have a fairly dominant pitcher, averaging over 6 innings per start. At home you have a guy with a high ERA that averages less than 5 innings per start. Kay and Cone speculated that Joba may be nervous pitching in front of the home crowd, but I think there's a much better explanation here. It seems like Joba is bat shy at the stadium while he pitches a lot more to contact on the road. This is shown by his elevated K and BB rates at home. The job for Girardi and Eiland now has to be to convince Joba that the ball isn't traveling at Yankee Stadium like it was in April and that every fly ball he gives up isn't going to go out. On the bright side, I think these numbers imply that if he starts pitching agressively at home, Joba can be a top of the rotation starter this year even if he doesn't regain the 98 mph heat.

One of the most surprising things about Sunday's loss was that when the highlights were shown on a couple of the local sports shows, the headline seemed to be that Brett Tomko gave up 3 runs and the theme was "that Yankee bullpen blows another one." This has been going on all year with fans desperately searching for ideas to improve this supposedly horrible pen - move Joba back there, trade Cano for a reliever, and so on.

Tomko was in the game for one reason. The starting pitcher left after 1 inning. That is never a circumstance that lends itself to success, not even in the best bullpens in baseball, which, I'm sorry to tell the doubters, the Yankees have one of. Tomko stinks, but he is the last guy out there and he'll be gone soon. Look at the top 5 middle relievers right now:

Brian Bruney - 2.61 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 12.2 K/9.

David Robertson - 1.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14.1 K/9

Alfredo Aceves - 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.8 K/9

Phil Hughes (as reliever) - 2.08 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.1 K/9

Phil Coke - 3.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 6.7 K/9

That is pretty formidable right there. The pen looked bad early on, but because of the inconsistency of relievers in general, it's normal for it to take until June to sort things out. Jose Veras is gone. Edwar Ramirez is gone. Jonathan Albaladejo is gone. I'll take my chances with the unit the Yankees have right now, who are quietly becoming a pretty dominant force.

What we're seeing right now with Pettitte is the major downside of incentive-based contracts. If he wasn't pitching for an extra 750K for every 10 innings over 180 this year, I'm sure Pettitte would be on the DL right now instead of going out there every 5 days and looking brutal every time. I'm sick of seeing guys warming up in the 3rd inning every time he pitches because no one's sure if his back is ok. This isn't working. The Yankees need to take a stand and at least make him skip a start.