With Chone Figgins and Ichiro leading off, our team is about to get very annoying. I define annoying as "Hits for very little power while still contributing" - Basically a team of players that don't seem to get out, but without any power that would make them legitimate run threats any time they are up to bat.

On base machines that hit for power come in three categories:

1. Frustrating Badasses (Three True Outcome hitters that strike out often)
2. "Okay..." (Players that hit a crapload of doubles and triples, not a lot of homeruns)
3. Superstars

Frustrating badass players may annoy you, but they are not annoying players, so they are excluded. Superstars are obviously excluded. "Okay...." players don't bother anyone, so they are excluded. Players that suck are excluded unless there is no annoying alternative. Annoying players are those with the lowest ISOs while still contributing in some form at their position.

So, for fun, I decided to create a team of low ISO players with as high a wOBA as possible, using Bill James projections. The lowest ISO players were rarely contributors, but the high wOBA guys rarely had low ISOs, so there will be some debate to the choices. I also limited it to players that had at least 400 PA in 2009.

Players:

 

via farm3.static.flickr.com

 

And the results of such a team:

via farm3.static.flickr.com

 

These numbers assume a 650 plate appearances per player and a .335 league average wOBA. However, at minimum we can expect an additional 300 or so PAs team wide, so add about 35 runs, and more realistically about 500 PAs (about 60 runs), . Assuming all equal plate appearances and no injuries or substitutions, this team would score about 785 runs in a year if I did the math right, which I don't think I did because this team would have the 4th highest wOBA in the majors. Still, they would be at least the 9th most productive hitting team in baseball, if not the 4th, so not bad. If there were better Catcher/2b annoying options, those numbers would be a bit higher. Also, the defense of this team would be pretty spectacular, though not necessarily mind blowing.

Any substitutions? 

 

rLF

With all of the discussion about the value of defense recently, I decided to create a very rough and quick statistic to show its value in a way that even the casual fan can understand. I termed the stat "rLF" and the first test subject is everyone’s favorite third baseman, Adrian Beltre.

Adrian Beltre has often been a source of controversy between the Statheads and the casual fan. Although no one denies he is a good player, there is an argument as to whether or not he is worth his "value" – that is, the 11ish million he makes per year because of his (seemingly) low production offensively.

While much of the controversy lies in his basic stats, such as his batting average, slugging, HR’s, etc. – and I would argue his offensive stats themselves if you equate for his bad luck are already worth the contract – the other part of his game that is underappreciated is his defense.

As Jeff and others have pointed out of late, defense is not only underappreciated, it is also not hard to find. An ~average defender can be found in the minors for next to nothing. Finding a good defensive fielder with a good bat may be more difficult, but "average" is fairly easy to find, and you won’t have to trade the farm to get it.

Despite his error today, Adrian Beltre appears to have both. He has a good bat that has been unlucky of late, and a glove that may not have been the best in the American league last year (Screw You Brandon Inge) but was easily in the top 3. According to everyone that has watched him play, he is at least a 5 < X < 15 above average run saver with his glove. For the sake of argument, let’s split the difference and say that, with his glove, he prevents 10 runs from scoring on average.

As Jeff often says, a run saved is as important as a run scored. So what I decided to do was create a quick stat that shows the value of those runs prevented by converting it into offensive numbers.

Why offensive numbers? Because those are the statistics that make the most sense to the average fan. If you are trying to explain how much his defense positively affects his value, it would be far easier to say what Adrian Beltre would need to HIT to equal the same production if he was just an average defender.

I used average as the baseline because an average defender is not difficult to find. There may be a better way, but I’m not a stats guru and I don’t have a lot of time to spend on this… ever.

The Method

I entered Beltre’s basic stats into a spreadsheet (BB, Singles, Doubles, Triples, HRs). To find out the runs created by Beltre I used THT’s RC (Runs Created) stat. It was quick and easy, though there may be a better way to calculate these values. Again, if a run created is worth the same as a run saved, these two should be roughly equal in terms of overall value.

Next I added Adrian’s defensive runs saved approximation (10 runs, I termed it "Appx D" for simplicity) to THT’s RC, as an estimate for the total value of runs Beltre has contributed altogether (Defense+Offense). I divided the new number by the old RC, since the old RC only accounts for offense. Again for the sake of simplicity, I termed this value Ddif.

Finally, I multiplied this value by all of the core stats (this is where regression analysis would likely come in handy, in case he had an uncharacteristic amount of home runs, etc., but that’s not something I plan on doing). PA would not change because the purpose of this is to show what Beltre would have had to bat in order to equal the runs he saves defensively over average in the same amount of plate appearances. AB does change to account for the walks, but it is not multiplied by Ddif either, because it is based on PA.

(note: I’m still not positive if I should be including walks, but they will remain included for now)

I then found what the new and updated BA/OBP/SLG would be for Beltre. Assuming he saves 10 runs above average with his glove, if he was an average defender, he would have to bat .312/.359/.546 to produce the same amount. Or, if you want to put it in more positive terms, Beltre essentially had a .905 OPS in 2007 if he were an average defender.

(For those that are curious, at 5 < x < 15, Beltre is .294/.339/.514 < x < .331/.378/.579)

I’m positive there is a better way to do it, and I’m positive someone has likely done this before. But at least these numbers give you a very easy to calculate talking point if you are trying to explain why Beltre is worth the money. If he saves 10 runs with his glove above average, he was essentially a .905 OPS, rather than a .802 OPS.

I termed the stat rLF to stand for two things: Replacement Level Fan (as in, a number that casual fans can understand) and "Raul in Left Field." So, for fun, I’ll also address the latter of the two.

For Raul in 2007, if we assume he ONLY caused 20 runs to score below average (and I think it is possible it is more like 30 or more), Raul – as an average defender – put up a .231/.284/.380, or a .665 OPS.

So that is my quick stat using what little I know about [baseball] statistics. At the very least, it will make it a little easier to talk about the value of Beltre and other players to casual fans, and although I’m sure there must have been someone that has done this before, hopefully this works as an easier way to calculate it.

Edit - Jeff sent me Tango's RC. I like using the idea of Tango's RC more, since they are not dependent on the situation the player actually encounters, but an approximation of what each one is worth with the situation removed (much like defense). I'm not going to retype this whole thing, but you can find Tango's numbers here. And here is the result:

I like this result much better. Beltre becomes a 300 hitter with above average power and good defense. Ibanez is not god awful but for a left fielder he comes basically useless.

 

This is Matthew's(?) link from the USSM about comments Baker made about the interview that Felix "avoided." Geoff said that since Felix hadn't accomplished anything in baseball, he is not allowed to avoid the press, and that he was being childish and immature. The article at the bottom by Shannon Drayer was in response to that. The article itself is worth reading, but this was also nice to see [emphasis mine]:

That night I along with a reporter from MLB.com waited for Felix. When he came out he was surprised that there were only two of us left. I explained that the others had deadlines and Felix replied, “But it is early.” He then gave us the interview. From the interview I could tell that he wasn’t quite sure how to handle himself in this particular situation. He didn’t want to say that he pitched poorly. He spouted the company line on how they were struggling and how he believed that the bats would come along. He seemed a bit confused on just how he was supposed to answer the questions. He did give one good nugget, he said that he believes he has been throwing the fastball too much in his recent starts and needs to mix in more breaking balls. It was a decent interview, and while not as timely as some would want, no arm twisting was required.

I think we had a recent discussion about how some guys on the radio said that the M's blogs told Felix to throw more fastballs and I think that Blowers or someone also said that you can never throw enough fastballs. Good to see that at least Felix gets it.

Full Article

The Mariners make me unhappy. So here are things that make me happy!!! Please feel free and contribute your own cute and happy things, so that we may not only brighten our lives with sunshine and flowers, we also improve the tone of this community which has certainly been a negative nelly of late.

Kitten Cups, of course:

Baby Hugs:

via static.flickr.com

Coffee!!!

Ah, coffee. The feeling is mutual.

It is fun being positive. Hooray life!

From Baker's Blog:

Miguel Batista says a new discovery is what led him to toss 7 2/3 scoreless innings and strike out eight.

Batista won't say what the discovery was. He isn't sure it's going to work again. But he sounds excited about it. He should be. His velocity wasn't there today, but the Angels were still swining through his pitches all afternoon.

"I might have found something that I wish I might have found years ago in my career,'' Batista said. "I don't know if I'm right yet. It's going to take me at least four or five more starts to figure out if it's going to be able to work as good as I believe it might work.

"And if it does, I might be able to pitch another five years.''

Now, because he won't say what it is and it has only been one game, there is not necessarily any validity to this. I've also been told on this website and others that it is difficult/near impossible for a pitcher to learn something new (other than a new pitch) after throwing for so many years. But the thought of a pitcher - any pitcher, good or bad - figuring out a new way to pitch is something I find exciting. Here's hoping it exists.

And still going. Do they call these games? Because someone's arm is going to break. To put that Japanese game into perspective, however, the entire San Diego team coming into this inning is only at 249 pitches.

Because I'm fairly positive I'm not at 75 words, my addition to this temporary thread is: Start visiting pdb's site at www.niceguysfinishthird.com so that he writes there more often. The more baseball blogs not written by a doc, the better, amigo.