SB Nation User Blog: Librocrat

rLF - A Quick Stat

Librocrat — Sat, 24 May 2008 22:02:27 -0000

rLF

With all of the discussion about the value of defense recently, I decided to create a very rough and quick statistic to show its value in a way that even the casual fan can understand. I termed the stat "rLF" and the first test subject is everyone’s favorite third baseman, Adrian Beltre.

Adrian Beltre has often been a source of controversy between the Statheads and the casual fan. Although no one denies he is a good player, there is an argument as to whether or not he is worth his "value" – that is, the 11ish million he makes per year because of his (seemingly) low production offensively.

While much of the controversy lies in his basic stats, such as his batting average, slugging, HR’s, etc. – and I would argue his offensive stats themselves if you equate for his bad luck are already worth the contract – the other part of his game that is underappreciated is his defense.

As Jeff and others have pointed out of late, defense is not only underappreciated, it is also not hard to find. An ~average defender can be found in the minors for next to nothing. Finding a good defensive fielder with a good bat may be more difficult, but "average" is fairly easy to find, and you won’t have to trade the farm to get it.

Despite his error today, Adrian Beltre appears to have both. He has a good bat that has been unlucky of late, and a glove that may not have been the best in the American league last year (Screw You Brandon Inge) but was easily in the top 3. According to everyone that has watched him play, he is at least a 5 < X < 15 above average run saver with his glove. For the sake of argument, let’s split the difference and say that, with his glove, he prevents 10 runs from scoring on average.

As Jeff often says, a run saved is as important as a run scored. So what I decided to do was create a quick stat that shows the value of those runs prevented by converting it into offensive numbers.

Why offensive numbers? Because those are the statistics that make the most sense to the average fan. If you are trying to explain how much his defense positively affects his value, it would be far easier to say what Adrian Beltre would need to HIT to equal the same production if he was just an average defender.

I used average as the baseline because an average defender is not difficult to find. There may be a better way, but I’m not a stats guru and I don’t have a lot of time to spend on this… ever.

The Method

I entered Beltre’s basic stats into a spreadsheet (BB, Singles, Doubles, Triples, HRs). To find out the runs created by Beltre I used THT’s RC (Runs Created) stat. It was quick and easy, though there may be a better way to calculate these values. Again, if a run created is worth the same as a run saved, these two should be roughly equal in terms of overall value.

Next I added Adrian’s defensive runs saved approximation (10 runs, I termed it "Appx D" for simplicity) to THT’s RC, as an estimate for the total value of runs Beltre has contributed altogether (Defense+Offense). I divided the new number by the old RC, since the old RC only accounts for offense. Again for the sake of simplicity, I termed this value Ddif.

Finally, I multiplied this value by all of the core stats (this is where regression analysis would likely come in handy, in case he had an uncharacteristic amount of home runs, etc., but that’s not something I plan on doing). PA would not change because the purpose of this is to show what Beltre would have had to bat in order to equal the runs he saves defensively over average in the same amount of plate appearances. AB does change to account for the walks, but it is not multiplied by Ddif either, because it is based on PA.

(note: I’m still not positive if I should be including walks, but they will remain included for now)

I then found what the new and updated BA/OBP/SLG would be for Beltre. Assuming he saves 10 runs above average with his glove, if he was an average defender, he would have to bat .312/.359/.546 to produce the same amount. Or, if you want to put it in more positive terms, Beltre essentially had a .905 OPS in 2007 if he were an average defender.

(For those that are curious, at 5 < x < 15, Beltre is .294/.339/.514 < x < .331/.378/.579)

I’m positive there is a better way to do it, and I’m positive someone has likely done this before. But at least these numbers give you a very easy to calculate talking point if you are trying to explain why Beltre is worth the money. If he saves 10 runs with his glove above average, he was essentially a .905 OPS, rather than a .802 OPS.

I termed the stat rLF to stand for two things: Replacement Level Fan (as in, a number that casual fans can understand) and "Raul in Left Field." So, for fun, I’ll also address the latter of the two.

For Raul in 2007, if we assume he ONLY caused 20 runs to score below average (and I think it is possible it is more like 30 or more), Raul – as an average defender – put up a .231/.284/.380, or a .665 OPS.

So that is my quick stat using what little I know about [baseball] statistics. At the very least, it will make it a little easier to talk about the value of Beltre and other players to casual fans, and although I’m sure there must have been someone that has done this before, hopefully this works as an easier way to calculate it.

Edit - Jeff sent me Tango's RC. I like using the idea of Tango's RC more, since they are not dependent on the situation the player actually encounters, but an approximation of what each one is worth with the situation removed (much like defense). I'm not going to retype this whole thing, but you can find Tango's numbers here. And here is the result:

I like this result much better. Beltre becomes a 300 hitter with above average power and good defense. Ibanez is not god awful but for a left fielder he comes basically useless.

Hints of Good News

Librocrat — Tue, 20 May 2008 18:29:34 -0000

This is Matthew's(?) link from the USSM about comments Baker made about the interview that Felix "avoided." Geoff said that since Felix hadn't accomplished anything in baseball, he is not allowed to avoid the press, and that he was being childish and immature. The article at the bottom by Shannon Drayer was in response to that. The article itself is worth reading, but this was also nice to see [emphasis mine]:

That night I along with a reporter from MLB.com waited for Felix. When he came out he was surprised that there were only two of us left. I explained that the others had deadlines and Felix replied, “But it is early.” He then gave us the interview. From the interview I could tell that he wasn’t quite sure how to handle himself in this particular situation. He didn’t want to say that he pitched poorly. He spouted the company line on how they were struggling and how he believed that the bats would come along. He seemed a bit confused on just how he was supposed to answer the questions. He did give one good nugget, he said that he believes he has been throwing the fastball too much in his recent starts and needs to mix in more breaking balls. It was a decent interview, and while not as timely as some would want, no arm twisting was required.

I think we had a recent discussion about how some guys on the radio said that the M's blogs told Felix to throw more fastballs and I think that Blowers or someone also said that you can never throw enough fastballs. Good to see that at least Felix gets it.

Full Article

Open Cute Thread of Happy Things

Librocrat — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 21:34:33 -0000

The Mariners make me unhappy. So here are things that make me happy!!! Please feel free and contribute your own cute and happy things, so that we may not only brighten our lives with sunshine and flowers, we also improve the tone of this community which has certainly been a negative nelly of late.

Kitten Cups, of course:

Baby Hugs:

via static.flickr.com

Coffee!!!

Ah, coffee. The feeling is mutual.

It is fun being positive. Hooray life!

Batista's Change?

Librocrat — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 06:45:30 -0000

From Baker's Blog:

Miguel Batista says a new discovery is what led him to toss 7 2/3 scoreless innings and strike out eight.

Batista won't say what the discovery was. He isn't sure it's going to work again. But he sounds excited about it. He should be. His velocity wasn't there today, but the Angels were still swining through his pitches all afternoon.

"I might have found something that I wish I might have found years ago in my career,'' Batista said. "I don't know if I'm right yet. It's going to take me at least four or five more starts to figure out if it's going to be able to work as good as I believe it might work.

"And if it does, I might be able to pitch another five years.''

Now, because he won't say what it is and it has only been one game, there is not necessarily any validity to this. I've also been told on this website and others that it is difficult/near impossible for a pitcher to learn something new (other than a new pitch) after throwing for so many years. But the thought of a pitcher - any pitcher, good or bad - figuring out a new way to pitch is something I find exciting. Here's hoping it exists.

Thank Demetri Martin for this one.

Librocrat — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 05:00:59 -0000

Thank Demetri Martin for this one.

Temporary - SD at 5 hours, 18 innings

Librocrat — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 06:56:19 -0000

And still going. Do they call these games? Because someone's arm is going to break. To put that Japanese game into perspective, however, the entire San Diego team coming into this inning is only at 249 pitches.

Because I'm fairly positive I'm not at 75 words, my addition to this temporary thread is: Start visiting pdb's site at www.niceguysfinishthird.com so that he writes there more often. The more baseball blogs not written by a doc, the better, amigo.

Open Stephen Curry Appreciation Thread

Librocrat — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 21:04:51 -0000

Here's hoping Davidson upsets them all.

Gritty Bear

Librocrat — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 00:03:13 -0000

Gritty Bear

Random Baseball Stuff

Librocrat — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:30:24 -0000

These have been pretty good diaries lately, so I don't want to hijack them.

In the news:
1) The Yankees visited Virginia Tech to honor the students and teachers that were killed in the shooting last year. They then played an honorary exhibition game against the VT baseball team and wiped the floor with them, winning 11-0. Something seems somewhat assholey about that, but oh well.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080318&content_id=2442883&vkey=spt2008news&fex t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

2) Kerry Wood has back spasms :(.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080319&content_id=2444211&vkey=spt2008news&fex t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

3) "Ichiro has a very fine prefrontal cortex"
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2004291330_ichiro19.html

4) Coach is cheating on us.
http://www.halosheaven.com/2008/3/18/306695/i-hope-we-can-get-along-th

This is a photo for no reason:

$1.50 Betting

Librocrat — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 01:54:08 -0000

It's getting closer to the season, time to catalog this:

Originally I had bet $1.50 the A's will do better than the Mariners (based on nothing) - I'll stick with that bet, though I don't necessarily believe it anymore, only because I don't want to chicken out of it. I think Jeff, marc w., pdb and Sec 108 were all in on that bet. Betting is now closed.

I also bet $1.50 that Silva has a sub-90 ERA+, due to his awful pitching against lefties, the poor fielding outfield, and the fact that he was just signed for 4 years so, of course, it has to blow up in our faces. Betting is still open for that bet. Limited to 50 participants. I do have no job anymore, remember.

pdb bet $1.50 that Sexson will not have a comeback season. "Comeback" still needs to be defined by pdb before betting can begin. If .260/.350/.500 is a comeback year, I don't think he can hit that and I'm on pdb's side. But if a "comeback" is defined as .230/.325/.460, then I could be persuaded to take that bet.

I'm also considering opening up $1.50 betting for the Mariners being a sub-.500 team. Before anyone jumps on me, I fully believe they can beat .500, maybe even be competitive, but if even one thing goes wrong - like a Bedard injury - it would not be an unsafe bet. That bet is on hold for now while I decide whether or not to take the heat for making it.

So, any other $1.50 bets? And any takers for the bets already on the table?