SB Nation User Blog: Lifelong

Try to S & T for Lee? Do the W's even have a shot?

Lifelong — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:08:49 -0000

Obviously, David Lee is the top FA out there and would be an excellent fit with the Warriors. Just ask Bucher:

16. David Lee, PF/C, Knicks (RFA)

His game: Energy and defense without needing plays called for him. Will sacrifice his body on screens and charges. Undersized but athletic, hard-nosed and low-maintenance. Rebound and loose-ball fiend. Good hands and decent with putbacks and finishing around the rim off pick-and-roll. Not much of a threat beyond 15 feet or on post-ups. Willing help defender, but not a shot-blocker.

Right system: Up-tempo is ideal because he'll outrun most bigs in transition. Need at least three scorers, ideally four, so he has room and reason to chase down rebounds and putbacks. Can't play off an offensive post threat because he doesn't have the jumper to space the floor. Mobile enough to show on the guard in pick-and-roll defense and get back to a rolling big.

Wrong system: A methodical half-court set with a dominant scoring center who is not a shot-blocker.

Best fits: Suns, Blazers, Jazz, Rockets, Thunder, Warriors

I'm sure nearly everyone on this site would love to have him on the W's and there has been a lot written about the possibility in the comments of several posts. The question is would we have a shot and what would we have to give up to make it happen? (warning: long post with lots of analysis)

It's pretty obvious that NY is focused primarily on shedding salary for next summer's free agent class.

IIn order to preserve cap space, NY is unlikely to match a large contract offer for Lee and that's why he's widely seen as available despite his restricted free agent status. Of course as a FA, restricted or not, he can choose where he plays next year. As has been dicussed and proven to with depressing regularity, Golden State is not a very desirable destination for players right now ( front office uncertainty, Nellie being Nellie, etc.). However, let's pretend for the sake of optimism that Lee is a big Bucher reader and wants to play for a team he is ideally suited for and, for some unknown reason, would be willing to play here. With Portland being the only team in that group that has the room to sign him outright, and with their reported reluctance to sign him to an offer sheet, it seems a sign and trade is most likely.

Ignoring Lee's preference as to where he plays (still totally unknown other than his supposed desire to stay in NY which won't happen), let's think about who, limiting it to those 5 teams, could offer the best S & T package.

All those 5 teams can offer around or more than the $9M Lee's contract will most likely start at. If, though, all NY wants is the most expiring money they can get, Houston, Phoenix and Utah all have the W's beat. T-Mac is a $23M expiring, Ben Wallace has a $14M and Boozer has a $12.6M expiring. Each offers an advantage that we can't match. All 3 contracts would allow Lee to sign for a starting contract of, let's say $9M and still leave room in the deal for NY to send out another bad contract. Obviously, Houston has the most to offer in that category with T-Mac.

While Wallace is pretty much done and T-Mac is a big question mark right now, Boozer is still potentially an All-Star level PF and would be the only player out of those 3 big expiring contracts that would be a significant contributor this season. Of course, NY would want nothing to do with him after his deal expires because they have their eyes set on 'Bron and Bosh in 2010.

This is where I see the one advantage that GS could offer: we can trade young, high upside players who also have expiring deals. Wright would be expendable if we got Lee since Wright already wasn't getting minutes at PF and would certainly get less if Lee was here. Belinelli is totally expendable with our glut of shooting guards.

Both Belli and BWright have one more guaranteed year and then a player option for 2010-2011. This would give NY a no-risk opportunity to assess them for one year. They could then let their contracts expire or pick up their options. Again, the one advantage the Dubs have.

Including Wright and Belli is the easy part. The hard part is what other salaries do you add to make it work. Law and Claxton can't be traded in combination with another player until 60 days after their trade to GS. There's no way Lee is still available in fifty something days so they're out. Assuming NY would only be willing to take on non-expiring salary if it was 1) a small amount and 2) young talent, that leaves 3 players the W's could add to make the numbers work: Buke, Morrow and Curry. Buke, Wright and Belli makes the numbers work (BTW I did it just using a calculator and salaries listed on Hoopshype b/c ESPN trade machine is using last year's numbers so I don't think it's accurate). But I don't think NY would want Buke's $3.6M on the books in 2010-2011, unless they see Wright and/or Belinelli as worth it (unlikely).

Curry's salary will be about $2.4M in 2010-2011 but NY obviously loves Curry and would be happy to pay it. Problem is, a package of Wright, Belli and Curry only allows us to take on $8.2M in salary, which will not get us Lee unless we structure big raises into the deal to make up for a low 1st year salary. Plus, Nellie has been pretty clear he doesn't want to give up Curry.

Morrow will make significantly less than Curry so Wright, Belinelli and Morrow definitely doesn't get us there. A package of Wright, Belinelli, Morrow AND Curry gets us there, but that's a lot of young talent to give up, plus Morrow and Curry would each still have at least one year on their deals after 2009-2010 so that might make them slightly less attractive to NY.

All in all, it seems like the only deal that NY would take from us would be Wright, Belinelli, Morrow AND Curry. I can't see Nellie wanting to do that. Let's call that deal #1.

The one other shot I see is if we did a package of Wright, Buke and Belinelli for Lee. Then, in a separate trade, sent Claxton to NY for one of their bad contracts. We could take back Jared Jeffries, who is on the books for $6.4M next year and a 2010-2011 player option he'll likely pick up for $6.9M. That would offset Buke's salary in 2010-2011 and then some. It would give them young talent they have team options with and give them a solid role player in Buke. Let's call that deal #2.

Is Lee worth all that? On the one hand, he's a double-double machine and would seem to be a perfect fit, other than he isn't the protoypical "shooting big man" that Nellie dreams about. On the other hand, losing a LOT of young talent (deal #1) or adding more salary to our already ridiculous payroll (deal#2) seem like big risks. What do you guys think?

Nellie now sees Curry as the best PG on the team

Lifelong — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 20:42:41 -0000

http://www.ibabuzz.com/warriors/2009/06/26/curry-pg-of-the-future/

I didn't see this posted yet though I'm sure many people have read MT-2's blog. If you read the quotes from Nellie it seems pretty clear that he now sees Curry as the PG of the future.

Here's what Nellie said about Curry playing point:

Nellie: “He’s a heck of a player. We drafted him because we think he’s going to be a great point guard. Maybe not his first year. It takes a while for point guards to mature and feel comfortable. I always saw Steve Nash in him, and he is the greatest player I’ve ever coached,” Nelson said. “I’ve been looking for another one for a long time and this is as close as I’ve ever seen in a young player. He has that same ability that Steve had. Shooting, passing, knowledge, just the natural things he’s done that he’s worked on his whole life.”

That is some gushing praise. Granted, this could all be mind games and/or general BSing on Nellie's part. If I remember correctly, Nellie had an interview Ralph and Tom a few years ago where he heaped praise on Wright and Belinelli and we all know how that turned out.

Also, it could very well be Nellie trying to strengthen his position in a potential trade with Phoenix by demonstrating just how valuable Curry is to the W's.

If it is true, however, it seems like Nellie has made yet another total 180 on the question of Monta playing point:

After all that coddling and plotting based on Monta Ellis being the point guard, Nellie said Monta will (eventually) move to shooting guard and Jackson to small forward.
Remember, Monta has been deemed the point guard since late last season. They were so dialed into this Monta-at-point experiment that they traded away Jamal Crawford and flew to see Monta and “get on the same page” with him. Now, they may be back to the Baron days.

Nellie: “Yes, Jack is going back to 3. I emailed him that today, that ‘I moved you to 2 and you’re back to 3.’ We like Morrow very much, too, as a player in the backcourt. Jack said, ‘Wherever you want me, that’s where I’ll be.’”

Nellie makes it pretty clear that he believes Curry is already a better PG than Monta:

Check out his response when asked if Monta and Curry can co-exist.

Nellie: “That’ll be fine. Monta still has to work on his point guard skills as well and his passing skills. That was part of his program to get better at. This guy already has that. Monta has some work to do in that area but they’ll be fine together.”

Saying that an untested, albeit impressive, rookie already has greater PG skills than Monta does kind of seem like the typical Nellie style of motivation. It's also his style to simply call them like he sees them (and some might say be a cantankerous old prick). Though, if Monta is even half as angry as has been reported about his perceived insecurity at the PG spot , I cannot see him being very happy with the W's right now.

This wouldn't seem on the surface to be the best way to "motivate" Monta and Nellie had to know everything he said would be known by Monta and would not be received well. It sort of puts the thought in my conspiracy theory loving mind that Nellie maybe orchestrating a trade involving Monta. If he was, he would certainly be decreasing Monta's perceived value around the league by somewhat criticizing his potential at PG, then again that doesn't seem to have concerned Nellie before (see Harrington and Crawford). The other thing he could be doing is trying to inflate fans' perception of Curry and prop him up as potentially a worthy replacement to Monta if Monta were to be traded.

Like I said above, this could all be BS on Nellie's part and might not be worth paying attention to. Then again, it could have hidden implications for Nellie's plans. Either way, it'll be an interesting summer.

Fantasy league for 2nd half of season started

Lifelong — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 02:22:29 -0000

I went ahead and started the Golden State of Mind League for Season 2 (that is what sportingnews.com calls the 2nd half of the season).

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/hoops/season2/basic/home_good.html

League name is Golden State of Mind.

Everything will work the same as it did for the first half. For those of you who haven't played, check it out. It's a salary cap league. Each player has an assigned value and you are given $35M to buy 6 players of your choosing- there's no draft.

Props to back2back51's (Adonal Foyle Dot com) if he pulls out the win. If....

A Cal Poly grad could meet Rowell in person and represent for GSoM

Lifelong — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:58:23 -0000

First of all, please leave this up for people to see. This is an awesome opportunity for someone and for W's fans everywhere. This is no different than that guy (sorry I can't remember your name, man) who gives away the tickets (except I'm not giving anything away).

I just received a message on Facebook (stay w/ me here) from "Cal Poly Bay Area Alumni" group. Apparently there is a private reception for CP alumni before the game on Jan. 25 with esteemed Cal Poly alumnus- you guessed it- Bobby mofo-ing Rowell.

http://www.calpolylink.com/s/699/index.aspx?sid=699&pgid=539&cid=1326&gid=1&ecid=1326

I cannot go to this but I think it would be SICK if there is some other CP grad on GSoM who would go represent and let Big Bobby know just how the fans feel about what has gone on in the last 6 months. You have to be a CP grad but, I mean, like 10% of my HS class went there so I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one on GSoM.

I think we should find someone who can go and GSoMers could pay their way. I got five on it (or more), anyone else?

How do the W's improve the salary cap situation?

Lifelong — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 02:17:47 -0000

So, I have been torn between writing another post to throw on the heap of bitching, moaning, condemning posts or writing some forward looking post, like so many members suggest as they complain about the people who...complain.

Luckily, I didn't have to decide (it takes me half an hour to pick which 6 pack I want at BevMo so deciding is not a strength of mine). I found a great way to combine both urges that I think we all have as W's fans, to bitch and to look ahead- because, what the hell else do we usually have?

(WARNING: Long, thought out post ahead. Sorry, I guess?)

Anyways, here it goes: Rowell is an egomaniacal deusche who has destroyed the team's credibility and functionality(in terms of management). Yes, I trust Kawakami too, much- I'll save you the typing. Rowell was assistant AD at Cal Poly when Cohan met him and took him under his wing- fellow Mustangs, you know that is nothing that qualifies you to run an NBA franchise. He is wholly unqualified to make the decisions he is making and it is completely destroying the salary cap flexibility the W's had gained under Mullin (well, lost and gained back under Mullin, but still).

BUT...

Let's look forward as so many people rightly suggest and try to figure out ways to shed some salary in hopes of being able to improve this clusterfuck of a roster both by subtraction and addition.

Step 1) Identify the problem: (have a bucket to puke in handy)http://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state.htm

We have one expiring contract that can be traded and it's Williams' whopping $1.2 million.

Contracts that would easily qualify as exorbitant (or just stupid) Jackson

Maggette

Crawford (if he doesn't opt out, which he won't)

Step 2) Identify the options for each

Jackson: a 31 year old who is owed $42 M over this and the next 4 seasons. As Saint Tim of merc.com has pointed out, giving Jax a completely unnecessary and premature BY 2 YEARS extension, Rowell basically ruined any trade value Jax had. Seems like we could only include him (and his deal) if the other team was getting someone else along with him that they covet highly, most likely one of the young guys or our lottery pick next year.

Maggette: Obviously, he had some interest from other teams this summer, but not at $10 M per and not for 5 years. If he had (or currently was) giving teams who previously balked at the price a reason to reconsider, he would be an easy asset to move. Since it's fair to say that he hasn't been playing like a $10M player, he would likely have to be moved with another player/ pick of value. If he steps up his game in the next few months, you could kind of imagine a team who was both in the hunt and has a "luxury tax friendly" owner taking him on as a way to load up on scoring before the playoffs.

Check out my post this summer about the Maggette signing. Skip to the bottom where I compare his and BD's stats. It could make you cry, sorry if it does. http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2008/7/8/567614/faith-lost I admittedly rip Mullin, but this was way before anyone knew what really happened with BD. I, foolishly, thought the GM was making basketball decisions- silly me.

Crawford: Since his contract ends two years sooner that Mags or Jax, he is obviously more attractive in a trade. If someone has another guard to pair with him who actually plays D, allowing Crawford to just be a scorer/ distributor, you could see someone giving us something in return.

As I see it, we have three decent but completely non-essential and overpaid players. Did I mention they're all wing players?

How do we get rid of some/ all of them? What are some realistic targets, both in terms of destination and in terms of what we could realistically get back, realistically?

Mullin and BD had agreed to extension but....

Lifelong — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:15:35 -0000

For those of you who aren't already all over this (I'm sure, love or hate it, a lot of GSoM'ers are daily Talking Points readers):

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2008/09/29/for-the-record-baron-davis-and-mullin-had-a-tenative-39m-agreement-until-rowell-vetoed-it/

Whether or not you wanted BD to get that deal, this has interesting implications for our team. Obviously, Kawakami gives a way better analysis than I ever could but it seems to me that the most important point for the future is that Mullin got uver ruled on something as big as this. That combined with the complete lack of any meaningful extension talk would seem to suggest that his influence is decreasing and this will be Mullin's last season w/ the W's.

Kind of a bummer if you ask me but I'm just some dude. Let's go way off the hypothetical deep end and assume a) this is Mullin's last season as GM and b) that he completes no major moves between now and his exit. Assuming those two ideas, what move/ combination of moves define Mullin's tenure as GM to you? Peep the poll...

Poll

If it ended up being true that a) this is Mullin's last season w/ the team and b) he doesn't complete any major moves during the rest of his tenure, what move or combination of moves would define Mullin's job as GM to you?

Extending Foyle at about 10x his worth

16 votes

Extending the DunMurphy sisters.

14 votes

Trading a 6-pack of beer and a mop for BD

68 votes

Trading the DunMurphy sisters for SJax and Al

85 votes

Trading JRich for BWright

31 votes

Locking up the (pre Moped-gate) future by re-signing Monta and AB

15 votes

229 votes | Poll has closed

GSoM Fantasy Hoops is here!

Lifelong — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 21:03:11 -0000

I had 5 minutes to kill so I went ahead and created the fantasy league for this year. Just like last year, it's the salary cap league on SportingNews.com and it's all free.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/hoops/season1/basic/home.html

Create a team name then go to "join an existing league":

League name: Golden State of Mind Password: 1975

Since it's a salary cap league, there's no exclusive ownership of players which means there's no draft. We can all have Kobe if we want to. Also, there is no real limit to how many people can join the league since an infinite number of people can own any given player.

You start with $35 million to buy 6 players: 2 guards, 2 forwards, 1 center and 1 "6th man" (which means the player can play any position). You have to maintain that type of roster all season (w/ those positions, not the exact players I mean). Some players have multiple positions they can play on your roster (G/F or F/C).

Players' values go up and down during the season based on how many people are buying and selling them, like the stock market. Players earn fantasy points through points, boards, assists, etc. and most points wins the league, regardless of franchise value.

You get two trades every, I think, Tuesday night. The trades aren't actually trades you complete with other members of the league; a trade is really a right to sell a player and replace him by buying another.

Season 1 ends at the All-Star break and then season 2 goes from after the break until the playoffs. Hope some people join this year. Last season was hella fun.

GSoM Fantasy League this year?

Lifelong — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 02:24:11 -0000

I know it's way early to be asking this, but Adam at FastBreak got me thinking about fantasy basketball w/ his latest post . I'm wondering if the folks who set up the GSoM fantasy basketball league at SportingNews.com last year were planning on repeating that this year?

I loved the version of fantasy basketball that sportingnews.com used and GSoM had some good fantasy managers and some close contests. I hope it happens again.

Faith lost

Lifelong — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:24:02 -0000

Mullin started off his tenure as GM, well, sucking big time (see his first 5 major contracts and most of his drafts).

After the Indiana trade, I had finally gained some faith in Mullin's ability to evaluate talent and make deals accordingly as GM.

I reluctantly saw the J-Rich deal as necessary. It seemed the W's were finally giving us reason to be optimistic.

Now, first, we lose BD, the heart and soul of our team, not to mention the best Warrior in a long time, and gotten nothing for him. The losing him probably wasn't as much Mullin's fault as it was his design, but getting nothing for him was his fault.

What does Mullin do? After he finally got our from under the horrible deals he gave to Murphy, Foyle, Dunleavy and to a lesser extent J-Rich- what does he do with that cap room? Give $10 M per year to a 6th man who to a degree duplicates two of our best players in Monta and SJax?

$3M more a year on that deal could have gotten us Josh Smith or Baron. I'm not saying either of those sigings would have been the wisest, but if you are going to spend $50+ M on a player over five years, get something better than fucking Maggette!

This stinks of PR desperation by the W's front office: they missed out on BD (or what they could have got for him), Gilbert and Brand all in a very short span. So, they decided they would just sign the next biggest name left on the market.

Gee, where have I heard that one before? Oh yeah, two years ago when the Giants tried to sign Gary Matthews, Jr., Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano and missed on all 3. So, they signed the next biggest name left on the market: Barry "shit, look who's pitching today" Zito.

I by no means am saying Maggette is going to become a headcase and have the sharpest decline of his career, BUT he sure as shit is going to end up as a severely expensive PR move 3,2 or even 1 year down the line.

Plus, here are some interesting comparisons:

Baron Davis DOB: April of 79 Career avg. games/season: 60.8

Corey Magette: DOB: Nov of 79 Career avg. games/season: 65.4

So, if you buy the logic of not re-signing Baron b/c he was "old and injury prone" as I and many did, why the fuck would we give almost as much $$ to a player only 6 months younger and nearly just as likely to miss a significant amount of games each year?!

Idiotic, this was an idiotic move by Mullin and he no longer deserves my faith as a fan in his abilities as a GM.

Monta: blessing or curse? (hear me out)

Lifelong — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 01:47:48 -0000

First of all, let me say that this post has nothng to do w/ Kawakami's blog entry. It is two completely points.

Moving on... I know it is sacreligous to come on GSoM and post that Monta might be a "curse". I'm not saying he is, just asking and playing devil's advocate.

So, here's my point: how many times have you read a string of comments that goes like this:

"Point guard X is a solid young PG and has x, y, z going for him and the W's could get him by offering (Al, TPE until a onth ago, a washing machine, whatever)."

Reply:

"Yeah, Point guard X is awesome but he's only 6'1" and can't guard the opposing 2 guard. That would be a real thin/small backcourt with Monta."

Our problem isn't finding a PG, it's finding one who is the size of and can cover a 2 b/c Monta isn't and can't.

I by no means am suggesting the W's should do anything less than sign Monta to a monster contract b/c he is/ will be an elite scoring guard in the NBA and he's like 15 years old.

Just wanted to point out that building around Monta at the 2 spot is going to be a hell of a lot more difficult than if we had a bigger (read "normal sized) 2 guard.

If by some random miracle we were able to acquire a nearly as good, young 2 guard w/ more size, it might be something worth looking at (read "Iggy"). I realize that's a "no shit" type of idea, but still.

It may be risky hitching the W's train to Monta, that's all. It may be the greatest move the franchise ever made, too (though it seems to be getting easier and easier to top that list).