After watching the NFL Replay of the Broncos-Chargers game, I came away with a different view of our offensive struggles. During the live game, I complained vigorously to my TV screen that the play calls were too conservative, and I formulated a strawman that Mike McCoy was a nose-picking buffoon with a play sheet shorter than a post-it note. However, upon further review, McCoy is only partly to blame for the general ineffectiveness of the offense. I'll break it down to a few problem areas, but the take home point is that a certain young QB for the Broncos needs to get better.

Run, Forest, Run!

Ok, so I think we get the point. With over 50 run attempts in each game since the Oakland game, the Broncos are going to run the ball a RIDICULOUS amount. I'm cool with that. It's incredibly conservative but reduces risk in turning the ball over....a critical area of improvement since Kyle Orton was starting. The problem is that defenses are stacking the box with 8 or 9 defenders at a time, making the efficiency of our run game decrease.

While watching the replay, I saw numerous run blitzes by the Chargers. In particular, when Tebow is under center in double tight end sets, the Chargers were very aggressive at crashing the defensive ends into the middle to clog up the running lanes and blitzing LBs or CBs to the edge. Several of these runs were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage simply due to the mess. To fix this, McCoy HAS to start calling play-action pass plays or naked bootleg rollouts from this formation. The edge of the defense has to play more honest, and there's nobody more dangerous than Tebow on the outside edge. Getting the tight ends to chip their blockers and release into the flat on a QB rollout out of this formation is going to be a high-percentage play.

Read option...Again?

The read-option is clearly the mainstay running play of our offense. To defend it, the Chargers played a lot of off-man coverage and stacked the box to prevent the run. They also primarily played the defensive ends in an edge contain when we lined up of the option formation. This asks the defensive end to set the edge and to make sure that nobody (read:Timmy Terrific) gets to the outside.

The defensive formation seemed to work well for two reasons:

1) Out of our read option, it's either a run or a long bomb. Typically, the wide receivers are set 3 or 4 wide and they run a go or post route to clear out the edge for any number of option runs. Even the TEs run down the seam once in a while just to clear out defenders. However, with the defensive end playing disciplined contain and the box is stacked, there's limited options for running success.

2) Tim Tebow needs to make better reads than he did against the Chargers. When the DE sits on the line, Tebow seems to be a bit lost on whether to keep it or hand it off. This is particularly true in short yardage situations, where his instinct is to either go wide or dive into the pile. In more than one case, there were was a guard pulling to the outside edge on the play which Tebow ignored completely. If he would have made better reads and allowed the play to follow the blockers, either he or McGahee would have busted off some BIG gains. On another play, a safety blitzed on the outside edge and if he had read the field, he could have exploited the blitz with an inside veer for another massive gain.

In order to make the offense more effective, McCoy and Tebow need to anticipate this formation from here on out and adapt to it. A most glaring weakness is the vulnerability to wide out screen plays or slant routes. Basically, ANYTHING that passes from 5-8 yards should be wide open on the strong side of the formation. On the back side, again, a TE or RB releasing into the flat will be wide open with the DE sitting on the edge.

Decisions, Decisions

Like everything else these days, it all comes down to Tebow. The most noticeable fault I found was his slow decision making process. It's not just passes, where he's reading the defense and waiting for a 1-on-1 situation (he will NOT throw into the middle with LBs dropped into coverage). No...it also apparent on the read option. On two occasions, the Broncos ran option pitch plays where Ball or Royal take the pitch and the defense is again in off man coverage. If Tebow pitches the ball early and decisively, each play goes for a BIG gain with nobody within 10 yards. Instead, he decided to either keep the ball for a small gain or pitched it too late, giving time for the OLB to get to the edge.

Basically, I came away from the game replay with a better understanding of Tebow's faults. He's clearly on the steep part of the learning curve right now. He's playing very close to his vest, biding his time to make the decision and often choosing the least risky option. That's a good thing for a rookie to do....and it leads to wins when the Defense can keep up. However, he needs to become more instinctive in his reads...even in his bread and butter read-option out of the spread formation. He needs to trust his teammates and coaches, follow the blockers up front, and see the gaps rather than the defenders. I suspect he does this more at the end of the game, which is when he's most dangerous. The sooner he speeds up his decisions, the sooner he can start opening up these stacked defenses and maybe start hitting short, high percentage routes that will be very effective.

Going forward

In conclusion, after a 4 game win streak, the amazing thing is that there is a lot of room to improve with this offense. Tebow can and should make better reads than he did on Sunday, and he'll need to in order to keep the chains moving. There are several possible high-percentage pass options that are wide open to be exploited on short routes. The Broncos should come in expecting to see a lot of the same defensive formations the Chargers used on Sunday, and they should exploit it.

While Coach Mike Nolan has been getting some much-deserved respect for the latest success of the Broncos defense, there is a less-well known coach that may have made a bigger impact than Nolan alone. That coach is defensive line coach Wayne Nunnely.  Not only has Coach Nunnely brought much needed coaching experience in the 3-4 system (or 5-2, as hoosierteacher details here), it may be what he isn't doing that will deliver the AFC West to the Broncos.  For those that didn't know (or may have forgotten in the mess of the offseason), Wayne Nunnely was the defensive line coach for the last 10 seasons with the San Diego Chargers. His acquisition not only bolstered the Denver defensive line, it also subtracted from the Broncos' most formidable division opponent.

For example, the Chargers averaged roughly 100 rushing yards a game last season while the Broncos suffered roughly 140 yds / game and became a constant weakness for opponents to exploit.  So far through the 2009 season, the tables have turned. The Chargers are letting opponents rack up nearly 150 rushing yds/ game while the Broncos have turned in an astonishing 77 yds/game, including 74 total rush yards against the #1-ranked rushing offense of the Dallas Cowboys.  While the improved rush defense is not purely the product of the defensive line play, we all know that a stout defense starts with the play up front. In particular, the defensive line must eat up blocks and maintain the line of scrimmage to allow the linebackers to flow to the ball and tackle. Picking up this skill with new and transitional players such as Elvis Dumervil is really the product of sound coaching.

Some may say (MSM) that the woes of the Chargers defensive line play is because Jamal Williams is out for the season. While Williams can be a dominant player in the trenches, a single player does not a defensive line make. This is particularly true in rush defense (as previously stated) where the success depends on all members in the box doing their jobs. In the case of the Chargers, former Chicago Bears coach Don Johnson may be finding it difficult to get players to respond coming from a different defensive system.

The subtraction of Nunnely, a stalwart of the Chargers defense that ranked in the top 10 rushing defenses 7 out of the 10 years in his tenure, and the addition to the new Broncos defensive system may have been the single-biggest power shift in the AFC West this offseason.

If you're like me, you're entirely tired of reading from an entire slew of writer's opinions on whether Jay Cutler should stay or go, where he should go, and who's to blame in this whole mess.  What I haven't read anything about are actual, concrete solutions to the problem other than "Jay and McD should just sit down and talk it out".

So, entertain a possible solution if you will. First, let's look at the desires of the THREE parties involved:

1)  Jay Cutler.  From his point of view, he has been given no reason to believe that the new Broncos organization intends to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Even though he clearly favored the passer-friendly system of Jeremy Bates, he showed up to Dove Valley and began learning the new system in earnest with McD.  Then, McD "entertained" some offers to acquire Matt Cassel, undermining Jay's trust that McD believes he was up for the challenge.

Above all else, Jay wants some security in this situation. He wants to be given a honest chance to succeed. Further, he wants to become a great football player with a long-term, high-dollar contract, but he can't get there if he believes he's as expendable as Mike Leach.

2)  McDaniels.  From his perspective, he has got to produce a winner this year. He's going all out to not only morph this team into his system, but also win games with whoever he can find to help him out. The quickest way to do that was to look into getting Cassel at some level since he would already know the system and have an instictive trust with. Now with Jay feeling left out and Cassel gone, he's got to show that he's willing to work with Jay.

McDaniels needs to get everyone on the same page, believing in his system and running it to perfection. He also needs some flexibility in personnel, even at QB, to see that it gets done. Without any previous experience, he can't be locked into Cutler long-term if he can't run the system the McD way.

3) Bus Cook. It's very clear by now that Bus Cook is playing a large role in keeping this discord in Broncosland going.  Not only does he want to provide Jay with the security of a contract, but he wants his name to be attached to either a huge contract or some new form of contract.  Until he gets what he wants from the Broncos organization, he'll continue to leak information to the media about how unhappy Jay Cutler is and how he believes there is no alternative other than to be traded.

So here's my possible solution: Punt.  That's right, punt the ball away as if you're stuck on your own 3 yard line and your heels are on the back of the endzone.

This situation calls for the concrete value of a new contract, but not one that will impede the current cost structure for this year. Perhaps Bus Cook, in all of his irreverent politicking, could come up with a solution where a new, 1-year performance-based contract. In this "punting" contract, the principle payoff be to redo Jay's current long-term contract next year if the performance goals are met. Here, I see a winning value on all sides. If McD's system is good enough, Jay should be able to run the system and have another pro-bowl caliber year. Jay would have the guarauntee of being given a chance under the new coach and getting an early shot at a long term contract. If Jay doesn't perform up to par or things break down during the year, he'll get his wish to be traded next year (when the market will be ready for him) and McD will be able to move on to a QB he can work with. And finally, Bus Cook will have his name attached to a new contract that "saved" an entirely dire situation....and possibly a world-class offense...from utter destruction, with the outcome being now worse than shopping his client to a high-dollar contract next year.

It's time to think outside the box on this one. If the three parties can put down the pride for a moment and give it a 1-year "punting" period, perhaps cooler heads (and the Broncos as a whole) will prevail.

From PFT:

It’s been a strange week for the Broncos.  They’ve signed a slew of new free agents and nearly traded away their franchise quarterback.

It’s been an even stranger week for running back J.J. Arrington.  After having a deal in place with the Broncos, the thing fell through.  But now, it’s back on.

According to a league source, the Broncos have again agreed to terms with Arrington, according to Mike Klis of the Denver Post.

Arrington is the third running back that new coach Josh McDaniels and new G.M. Brian Xanders have signed, joining Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan.

A league source tells us that the Broncos initially were troubled by a meniscus injury in Arrington’s knee.  The deal fell apart over guaranteed money (or, more accurately, the lack of it).

But the knee has since checked out, and the deal was able to be finalized.

Dear Jay,

   I'm writing this letter to you in the hopes that you will listen to one lifelong Broncos fan.  By now, you are no doubt "laying low" in your attempt to force the Broncos organization to be up front with you on their intentions with you at quarterback. Boy, what a weekend you must have had.  Very few, if any, honest fans of the NFL believe that you are in any way on the same level as Matt Cassel, and many fans are glad that such a ridiculous trade did not go through.  I think you have an amazing talent and competitive spirit that will one day make you a Superbowl champion. I hope that you will do so with the Denver Broncos.

That said, someone has to tell you the truth. The truth is that the emotions that are driving you to be a champion are also keeping you from attaining the goal.  Too often, you press into decisions that are heavily weighted by your feelings at the moment and it affects your judgement. This occurs both on the field, where defenders use your frustration against you, and off the field, where the media quickly grabs a sound bite and spreads it all over the world.

You're a young guy, and as such, its easy to be fooled into believing that you can marshall all your talents and personal traits with perfect execution. Maturity occurs when you realize this is not possible, that you do have flaws, and that you have to rise above the intensely competitive emotions you feel to make rational decisions that will give you the best possible chance of success. 

Case in point, holding out on the Broncos now that the post-non-trade debacle is over is counterproductive in every sense. You will be villified in the media. You will leave your teamates questioning your leadership. And worst of all, if you do manage to be traded, it will likely be to a team with a much smaller chance of actually winning football games.  You gain nothing by not sitting down with the Broncos and working this out. You gain respect from your critics by quickly putting this behind you. You gain trust from your teammates who desperately want to go to battle with you. And if you manage to win big this season, you will earn both money in future contracts and success as a top quarterback in the NFL.

Jay, it's time to be the bigger man. It's time to become a true professional athlete. It's time to come back to the Broncos.

A fan among many others,

Linmoo