SBNation.com User Blog: Llamaman

Why it's time to trade Jordan Crawford

Llamaman — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 01:39:29 -0000

Editor's Note: Bumped up again. More excellent work here. -Mike

Note: After I got positive reviews on my post about why I haven't given up on Kevin Seraphin, I decided to give player analysis another shot. Enjoy!

Other note: I started this article on the evening of the 15th, before the news came out that Crawford is available.

No one is more polarizing to Wizards fans than Jordan Crawford. To some, he is a valuable shot creator off the bench who has made noticeable improvement every year and has the potential to be one of the best sixth men in the league. To others, he is a selfish ball hog who can never contribute to a good team.

As the statistics show, Crawford has improved individually every year. His true shooting percentage has gone from an atrocious 45.6% as a rookie, to 48.8% as a sophomore and is at 51.2% this year. While still below the 53.4% average for a shooting guard, he's gone from an unbelievably inefficient scorer to a high volume, slightly inefficient one.

His assists have gone from 4.1 per 36 minutes to 5, and his rebounds from 3.7 to 4.3. He's also hitting a good percentage of his spot up's, scoring 1.1 points per possession (PPP) according to MySynergySports, including over 40% from three. As always, he's great isolation scorer, his 0.99 PPP is 12th in Synergy's database. A Jordan Crawford iso is actually an efficient shot.

Nevertheless, the Wizards should look to trade Crawford before his rookie contract is over. While he has some great offensive skills, they haven't translated to actually helping his team. Part of the problem is Crawford's weak defense.

Much has been said about Crawford's defense, so there's no need to repeat it in depth here. What really sticks out is how little effort he seems to put into it. According to the Wizard's charge board, Crawford is last on the team in contest percentage, only contesting 64% of the shots taken against him. Perhaps an extended benching can teach him that effort on defense is necessary to play on the new look Wizards, but even more concerning is the affect he has on the offense.

Despite Crawford's ability to score, it hasn't resulted in team success on that end. Crawford was the only player who could consistently create his own shot for most of the year, yet the Wizards have faired significantly worse offensively when he is in the game. Per 82games.com, 58% of overall field goals that are assisted when Crawford is on the court, compared to 63% when he's off it, indicating a lower level of ball movement when Crawford is on the court.

Even more concerning is the Wizard's points scored per 100 possessions when the team's guards are paired with Crawford, particularly cornerstone's John Wall and Bradley Beal, via the new nba.com/stats.

Both Crawford and Wall need the ball to be effective. When they play together, Crawford does't get to handle the ball enough, while Wall doesn't get he spacing he needs. Beal, meanwhile, needs someone to create looks for him, especially this early in his career, something Crawford is unable to do adequately. As a result, neither player can be as effective when paired with Crawford.

If Crawford can't play with Wall or Beal, who will probably both be playing over 36 minutes in close games going forward, he'll be relegated to exclusively running the second unit. In a best case scenario for him, Crawford will only play 12 or so minutes in close games. Even if Crawford could learn to run the second unit effectively, when his rookie contract is over some team will believe they can make him a great sixth man, offering him more than the Wizards can afford to pay someone who's only playing 10-12 minutes per game.

The Wizards shouldn't rush to trade Crawford at the trade deadline, but they are right to make him available. Their odds of making the playoffs are slim to nil at this point so it won't hurt to showcase him for the rest of the year. However, if they plan to make the playoffs next year, this offseason would be an ideal time to trade him.

Jordan Crawford has some skills that will make him a contributor in the NBA for years to come. However, his poor fit with cornerstones John Wall and Bradley Beal makes him less valuable to the Wizards than other teams, making the right move to trade him before he receives an offer sheet in restricted free agency that the Wizards can't match.

Editor's Note: Bumped up again. More excellent work here. -Mike

Note: After I got positive reviews on my post about why I haven't given up on Kevin Seraphin, I decided to give player analysis another shot. Enjoy!

Other note: I started this article on the evening of the 15th, before the news came out that Crawford is available.

Poll

What should the Wizards do with Jordan Crawford?

Keep him. He's better than John Wall!

15 votes

Keep him. He could learn to play with Wall and Beal and form a great three man guard rotation

34 votes

Keep him. He can run the second unit and we wouldn't get much in return

65 votes

Trade him. His trade value is greater than his value to the team.

263 votes

Just get him off the team ASAP!

25 votes

402 votes | Poll has closed

Why I'm not giving up on Kevin Seraphin

Llamaman — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 18:18:14 -0000

What a difference a year can make. On February 5, 2012, Kevin Seraphin was averaging 3.5 points and 3.4 rebounds while shooting 44.6% in only 13.2 minutes per game. Many thought Seraphin was a bust and that his best case scenario was as a backup center. However, on March 7, this happened:

Eight days later, Javale McGee was traded for Nene, and Seraphin got a chance to start. He responded by averaging 13.6 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 54.4% in 30.2 minutes for the rest of the season, highlighted by a 24 point, 13 rebound, 4 block performance against Orlando and a 21 point, 13 rebound 5 block outing in Chicago. Suddenly, the conversation shifted to whether Seraphin could start for a contender in the future, and a few people even threw the words "future all-star" into the mix.

Since a nice performance against Boston to open the year, Seraphin has struggled. He's averaging 10.4 points and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 44.3% in 24.2 minutes off the bench. His blocks have gone from 1.7 per game post trade to only 0.8. Once again, some have left him for dead, saying that he is a "black hole" and can never be a contributor for a good team.

I think it's to soon to give up on Kevin Seraphin. He already has two elite skills, as well as several more promising ones. He has only been playing basketball since he was 15, and by all accounts is a coachable player who wants to get better.

His first elite skill is his hook shot. Currently, Seraphin leads the league in hook shots made, with 77. The runner up, Roy Hibbert, has made 67, and he's needed 23 more attempts than Seraphin to get there. After that, the leader board falls off a cliff, David Lee is in third place with 50.

Not only is Serapin leading the league in hook shots made, he's doing it at one of the best percentages. Out of the 49 players who have attempted at least 25 hook shots, Seraphin ranks second in field goal percentage behind teammate Emeka Okafor, who only has 43 attempts to Seraphin's 107. He makes hook shots at such a high percentage that his 72% would rank 12th on a list of highest layup percentages.

His high percentage on hook shots isn't a fluke either. He shot 66% on hook shots last year, and no one in the league has shot over 60% both years. Even in his rookie season, he went 21 for 30 on his hook shots, or 70%.

His second elite skill is post defense. According to MySynergySports.com, Seraphin allows only 0.67 points per possession (PPP) in post up situations. By comparison, the best team in the NBA at defending the post, the Chicago Bulls, allow 0.74 PPP. Listed at 275 pounds, Serphin is one of the heaviest players in the league, making him immovable in the post and he uses his long 7'3" wingspan to contest shots above his subpar 6'9" height.

What makes Seraphin such a good post defender isn't his shooting percentage, his 41.4% allowed is higher than the 38.4% allowed by the Bulls, but his ability to force turnovers on an insane 21.7% of post ups he faces, 9% better than the 12.7% the Bulls force. He also doesn't foul much, only fouling on 7.2% of the time, compared to the Bull's 8.1%.

While the NBA has been shifting away from the post and out towards the perimeter, some of the best centers in the league, such as Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum still often work from the post, as well as many younger centers, like DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe and Brook Lopez. Having an elite post defender to limit those guys could be invaluable in a playoff series.

One tendency that has people pulling their hair is Seraphin's new found love of long jump shots. While at first glance, his 30.5% on jumpers may seem to validate that opinion, his percentages have a very interesting quirk when broken down further. He's shooting jumpers 15 feet or closer at only 23.3%, while jumpers 16 feet and out are going in at a 46.3% clip. If this trend continues, and he, ironically, cuts down on his closer jump shots, he could be a very nice floor spacer and pick and pop partner at the center position, something that would benefit John Wall greatly.

The three area's that Seraphin has to improve are his rebounding, passing and team defense. He likely will never be a good passer, but as he sees more double teams, there's a good chance he can at least learn how to pass out of them. While he likely won't create many easy looks for teammates, very few centers do, and if he can at least learn how not to hurt his team there, that's all that's really necessary.

When it comes to rebounding, Seraphin has all the tools he needs. With a big, broad body to box people out, he can contribute to a teams rebounding efforts. While he probably won't ever pull down 10 boards a game, he would be an excellent compliment to a long, athletic front court partner who takes advantage of Seraphin's box outs to pull down plenty of boards, in a similar fashion to the way Emeka Okafor is grabbing a career high in defensive rebound percentage in part because of Nene's box out ability.

The final area Seraphin will need to improve is his team defense. In today's NBA, centers are relied upon more than ever to defend the rim and anchor a defense. Part of that is blocking shots to make perimeter players think twice before driving to the rim. While Seraphin hasn't been blocking many shots this year, last year he finished 10th in blocks per 36 minutes. If Seraphin can recapture even some of that shot blocking prowess, and learn good positioning from two of the best in Nene and Emeka Okafor, he could anchor a very good defense.

Kevin Seraphin is already an elite post defender and has the best hook shot in the NBA. He has the potential to be a good all around defender and help on the boards. He's been playing basketball for less time than most American high schoolers, and is still only 23. If he can bounce back from his funk and keep improving, he could be a good starter for a contender.

Poll

What should the Wizards do with Kevin Seraphin?

Keep him. Future all-star!

29 votes

Keep him. Starter on a good team

129 votes

Keep him. Starter on an OK/bad team or bench contributor on a good one

153 votes

Trade him. He could be good, but he would bring something better back

55 votes

Trade him. Just cut our losses!

8 votes

374 votes | Poll has closed

Wizards May Move Pick if They Don't Get #1

Llamaman — Wed, 30 May 2012 03:44:18 -0000

Wizards May Move Pick if They Don't Get #1

Via Draft Express.

"Hear [the Wizards] might try to move the pick if they don't get #1"

Obviously, we have no idea what a trade would be for, but interesting to know.

Inside the Nene Trade

Llamaman — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 23:42:45 -0000

Inside the Nene Trade

From The Association on NBA TV. It's not much, but interesting nevertheless. Also Javale's arrival.

Wizards sign Edwin Ubiles to 10 Day Contract

Llamaman — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 23:20:04 -0000

Wizards sign Edwin Ubiles to 10 Day Contract

Via Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside.

ESPN Lottery Machine

Llamaman — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:19:07 -0000

ESPN Lottery Machine

The ESPN Lottery Machine just came out

Who Should be Fired?

Llamaman — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 03:23:09 -0000

I've been hearing a lot of debate and discontent on this board in regard to Flip Saunders and Ernie Grunfeld. I'm curious what percentage of everyone here wants them to go. I'm not going to try to convince anyone either way, I'm just trying to see where everyone is at right now.

However, there's a minimum of seventy five words, so I need to drag this out a little. That should just about do it.

Poll

Who, if anyone, should the Wizards fire?

Keep both

7 votes

Fire Flip

18 votes

Fire Ernie

24 votes

Fire Both

55 votes

104 votes | Poll has closed