SB Nation User Blog: Llewdor

2009 PECOTA spreadsheet is available

Llewdor — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 18:37:32 -0000

More information is always good, right?

If you're a BPro member, Here you go.

If not, here's a fun (and possibly irrelevant) piece:

One of Phillipe Aumont's top comps: Chris Carpenter

One of Roy Halladay's top comps: Chris Carpenter

One of Brandon Webb's top comps: Roy Halladay

And here's a fun game. In which order does the 2009 PECOTA rank these players, by projected VORP:

Milton Bradley
Adrian Beltre
Dustin Pedroia
Cristian Guzman
Mike Cameron

Hint: If you listed Cristian Guzman anywhere other than first, you're wrong.

Why being aggressive on the basepaths is dumb

Llewdor — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 22:10:18 -0000

Like this is news.

We're 56-14 on the bases so far this season. That's a pretty good success rate - second in the AL, as it happens.

But that's Ichiro. If you take away Ichiro's 33-2, the rest of the team us 23-12, and that's not good. That's that's 65%. That's too low. A team this crappy can't give away runs, and getting thrown out stealing more than a third of the time isn't going to endear the team to the fans or make the game more exciting or whatever it is the team thinks having the baserunners fail a lot will accomplish.

We have Ichiro. 33-2 is good. Let's let him steal and stop running up the CS numbers for everyone else.

Something I noticed in Toronto

Llewdor — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 17:16:12 -0000

Dustin McGowan's motion looks EXACTLY like Roy Halladay's motion.

I've always thought Halladay had a pretty distinctive delivery. He's very slow to raise his front leg, he points his toe while he's doing it, and turtles up at the top of his motion before uncoiling - quite slowly - to deliver the ball to the plate. His arm has a sort of whip action, and a 3/4 slot.

Dustin McGowan's delivery, which I only got a good look at for the first time on Tuesday, looks just like that. It differs from Halladay's delivery not at all (which all the more impressive because McGowan's the hardest thrower in baseball this year, so that slow motion is extra deceptive).

I'm thinking there's a common cause. Someone in the Toronto organisation is building pitchers, and they turn out like Roy Halladay (also built - or rebuilt - by the Jays).

Add to this their pitch-mixing and I suspect Toronto's going to have an excellent rotation for some time. They seem to be doing this on purpose.

This, folks, is what good coaching can do.

Yankee Pitchers

Llewdor — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 07:59:45 -0000

First of all, I just got back from an Iron Maiden concert, and it was brilliant. Iron Maiden is always worth seeing (I've not seen them before, but they were good enough I'm willing to extrapolate).

So, the Yankees used six pitchers tonight, and I have literally never heard of four of them. Who are these people? Joba Chamberlain and and Edwar Ramirez I know, but:

Dan Gliese
Jose Veras
Chris Britton
LaTroy - what? LaTroy Hawkins is a Yankee? I saw Hawkins and figured it was someone else. Of course I know who LaTroy Hawkins is.

This FanPost is a lot less relevant than it was when I started.

Chuck Armstrong says dumb things

Llewdor — Tue, 27 May 2008 18:57:43 -0000

"In my 23 years, I have never ever seen anything like this. We saw it the other way in 2001. I mean, you have to ask yourself, 'How did the Mariners win 116 games that season with that roster, compared to this roster?' This is just as inexplicable the other way."
--Mariners president Chuck Armstrong

Chuck Armstrong doesn't see any relevant differences between the 2001 Mariners and the 2008 Mariners.

Without even looking them up, a few differences spring immediately to mind:

1) The 2001 team played far better defence than the 2008 team, both infield and outfield.

2) The 2001 team was a far more patient hitting team, drawing vastly more walks than the 2008 team.

3) The 2001 team hit for far more power than the 2008 team.

Are there any I missed? I bet there are. Statistical evidence for your points and mine would probably be ignored by Chuck, but feel free to post it anyway.

The team most like the 2008 Seattle Mariners

Llewdor — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:38:19 -0000

is...

apparently the 1990 Seattle Mariners.

Steven Goldman's article at BP today finds teams from history that are more like some teams from this season, through the first 30 games.

Strange Relations

It's a BP Premium article.

The 1991 Seattle Mariners turn out to be the best comp for the 2008 Blue Jays, which strikes me as an indication of how valuable this comparison isn't, since the '91 M's were poised to improve around a solid core of young players, while the Jays... aren't.

Billy Beane is a freaking genius

Llewdor — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:07:23 -0000

2006 - He ressurects Frank Thomas's career at a low price.

2007 - He lets some team other than Oakland pay the new high price for Frank's talents, pocketing a draft pick in return.

2007 - He spends draft pick on Corey Brown, currently hitting .316/.404/.592 in the Midwest League.

2008 - He signs Frank to prorated league-minimum contract following his release.

2008 - He trades Frank to contender for prospects at deadline.

For the price of a low contract and part of a minimum contract over 3 years, Beane has managed to get 1+ years of solid DH production plus at least one prospect.

Playing in the AL West is getting embarrassing.

MLB Gameday makes me laugh

Llewdor — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 23:48:27 -0000

Jays at Rays, with Toronto's Jesse Litsch facing Tampa Bay's Carlos Pena, produced the following pitch sequence:

Pitch F/X isn't being used in Tropicana, apparently.

Ball
Ball
Called Strike
Foul
Called Strike
Ball
Ball
Pickoff Attempt at 1B
Ball
Called Strike
Swinging Strike
Ball

Carlos Pena called out on strikes. That's 11 pitches, 6 balls and 5 strikes. And he was called out on strikes following a ball.

Something's clearly wrong.

Weird SBN glitch

Llewdor — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 22:50:18 -0000

The (admittedly quite convenient) pressing of 'C' to advance to the next unread comment doesn't work in any post where the comments are closed.

I first noticed this in the "all time roid leader" FanPost.

I'm not sure whom to tell about this, so I'm posting it here (and now I'm going on at length about that decision in order to hit 75 words - but it's not working).

There, that should do it.

Does Toronto really need both Adam Lind and Matt Stairs?

Llewdor — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:56:45 -0000

Lind is currently hitting .360/.411/.640 in AAA Syracuse, and Matt Stairs is splitting time in Toronto's LF with Shannon Stewart and Marco Scutaro (seriously, the Jays have 5 middle infielders, so they're playing them out of position - Ricciardi's being intermittently possessed by Peter Angelos and Allard Baird, it's the only explanation for some of his absurd decisions).

Wouldn't Stairs look good in RF for the M's, especially compared to Wilkerson and Morse?