Anyone have any info on this potential Astros stud?  Word is he just got out of jail for iguana smuggling, but used to throw in the triple digits with a devastating hook:

Johnson, who was born in East Texas but was raised in Venezuela, recently had his prison sentence commuted. He served time for running a smuggling ring that imported rare and illegal species of reptiles into the United States from South America during the mid-to-late 1990s. Thursday night's game marks Johnson's first in American professional baseball after a storied career in the Venezuelan leagues.

A news story on him from while he was still in prison:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdN9wqmf6sc

A scouting video from 96

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLuEMR24674&feature=related

And the video of his debut for the Round Rock Express this week:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haHlFA_bDkI&feature=player_embedded

Looks to be on his way to a pretty nice bounceback year.  At the moment he's hitting .302/350/479, with nearly half of his 29 hits (12 - 9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR) going for extra bases.  His BABIP is at .346, which is high, but his LD% is at 24, which would put his expected BABIP at about .360 - higher than he's at now.

Using one proposed more advanced measure of expected BABIP - (LD% x .5243) + .1857 - on the other hand, Brignac's expected BABIP would be .312.

So, I guess the question is - is Briggy's bounce back legitimate?  Or has he been the beneficiary of some good luck, leaving him destined to revert to the mean?  And if you think his hot start is inflated by luck, what do you think his numbers will normalize to?

Just received an offer I'm not sure what to do with.  What are your thoughts?

I give:

Francisco Liriano, Matt Wieters, Madison Bumgarner

I get:

Tim Lincecum, David Price, Dellin Betances

I already have Russell Martin at C, and Sabathia, Peavy, Halladay, Liriano and Gallardo at SP.

So . . . do I take the deal?  Why or why not?

filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler

We had a discussion a week or two ago about two dynasty league trades.  Wanted to see what people thought of the rosters that resulted from them - which roster would you prefer, the first roster (my actual, post trade and draft roster) or the second (what my roster would have looked like without the trades and with the picks I would have made instead).  In evaluating the rosters, assume that my major league roster has young studs and depth at almost all positions other than 3B:

Roster A

Matt Wieters
Travis Snider  

Madison Bumgarner

Pedro Alvarez
Derek Holland

Justin Smoak
Brian Matusz

Michael Bowden

Reid Brignac

Dayan Viciedo


Roster B

Travis Snider

Madison Bumgarner

Colby Rasmus

Neftali Feliz

Derek Holland

Chris Tillman

Michael Bowden

Reid Brignac

Matt Dominguez

Dayan Viciedo

Wanted the group's opinion on 2 Dynasty league deals, one which I just consummated, and one which I have out as an offer.  12 team league, H2H, 6x6 (R, HR, RBI, S, Avg, OBP; W, K, ERA, WHIP, SV, K/BB), with 10 man minor league rosters and all players kept year to year (no contract/time limit)

The deals (I'll put my pre-trade roster - major and minor league - after the jump):

Trade 1 (already completed):

I give: Jayson Werth, Chris Tillman, Chris Marrero, pick #36 in minor league draft

I get: Pedro Alvarez

Trade 2 (I just proposed):

I give: Colby Rasmas, Neftali Feliz

I get: Matt Wieters

What do you think of the deals?

Continue reading this post »

Just wondering if anyone has any scouting reports on him.  He's the son of ESPN's Mark Schlereth, who happened to mention (on Mike & Mike this morning in a conversation about the way effort impacts success in football v. baseball) that Daniel sits at 94-98, and occasionally touches 100-102.  Is that at all accurate?  Anyone know if he has any secondary pitches?  He's a 6-10 lefty, too.

He's not exactly young relative to league (22 in A ball) and not exactly playing against top competition, but for what its worth his combined stat line in the southern and  midwest leagues is 10G, 12IP, 2ER, 6H, 6BB, 14K.

It seems like a large chunk of the top 3d basemen in the minors have come up in the last few years - Zimmerman, Gordon, Longoria, Headley, Kouzmanoff, LaRoche, Stewart - so my question is, what does the 3d base prospect list look like heading into 2009?

Because I need to add a few more words - like 44 (down to about 30 now) I'll toss out a few names.  Alvarez, obviously.  Villalona - if he sticks at 3d base.  Vitters.  I don't particularly love Neil Walker as a prospect - seems like a guy who'll be average at best at 3d - but I guess he needs to go on the list.  Who else?

So, this isn't a fantasy advice question - I already made the offer and will make the trade if it goes through.  Just wondering what others' opinions on this are.

Basically, I'm in a H2H Dynasty league with 10 man minor league rosters.

I'm offering Travis Snider and Billy Butler for the first or second pick in the league's minor league draft (for 2007 draftees and anyone else unowned).  Basically, I want Price or Porcello.

Am I nuts?  Is this a good move?  What do you think?

Personally, I think from a value standpoint, I'm probably overpaying, but from a team need standpoint, it works. The trade only involves OF and pitching, so here's my current roster (majors and minors) at each spot.

Continue reading this post »

Just thought I'd collect John's grades for the various A-B prospects thus far (B is the cutoff, no B- guys here).  The list is in the extended version.  Here are a few notes:

Lists still to come
AL East                NL East
Blue Jays             Philadelphia
Orioles
Devil Rays

AL Central             NL Central
Indians                 Milwaukee
White Sox             St. Louis
                           Pittsburgh

AL West                NL West
Oakland               Arizona
Seattle                 Colorado
                            LA
                            SF

Players we've ranked on the community list not yet reviewed:

Longoria (2)
Rasmus (3)
Kershaw (6)
Price (9)
LaRoche (10)
McGee (11)
Snider (13)
Weiters (15)
McCutcheon (17)
Davis (19)
Brignac (20)
Barton (22)
Morales (24)
Clement (25)
LaPorta (26)
Jennings (31)
Gomez (about to win 32)

Player John may think we have ranked too high: Homer Bailey (going by John's list, Bailey at a B+ should be behind Ellsbury (16), Lowrie (off), Cueto (12) and Votto (17)).

Player John may think should be in the poll:
Taylor Teagarden (at a borderline A-, it seems John thinks more highly of him than Bailey (8), Brandon Wood (14), Marrero (28), Martinez (29) and Antonelli (30)

Continue reading this post »

Way back at the beginning of this thing, we had talked about re-sorting each set of 10 relative to each other as the list got put together:

" 4. After each ten prospects are placed up on the list we do what Pedro is doing and create a group smack down that will compare these guys. This should generate discussion and hopefully help us to move some people around if we feel their whole story wasn't understood when we voted"

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/11/28/215733/80/9#9

Are we still planning to do this?  We now have the top 20+ up - it may be time to take a look at guys 1-10 before we all forget this part of the plan.

Not that I'm volunteering or anything :)  Just wondering if someone was going to take this on, and wanted to make sure it didn't get lost.

Yes, it's a fantasy baseball question.  But in a way, it's also a prospect ranking question.  My leage has 12 teams with 10 man minor league rosters, which, theoretically, should mean that the top 120 minor league prospects are rostered.  So my question for you is - who's been unfairly left off the lists?  Who is on that shouldn't be on?  Offensive prowess only for position players (since this is fantasy baseball), but ignore issues of roster construction, and let me know what you think of the snubs:

Continue reading this post »

So, we've about reached June, which makes this a fair time to ask the question:

Which minor league players have had breakout seasons this year?  I'm not talking about guys we already considered top prospects - I mean who are the players who have forced themselves into that mix after being left out of it in the preseason lists?  Top-100 type guys who have rocketed past 30 or more players listed ahead of them?  Guys who were off the list entirely but who would be on it if you did it today?  Who are they?

I've been offered the following trade in my dynasty league (we keep all players year to year, no expiration date):

Roy Oswalt

for

Capuano
Billingsley
Bailey

Adding Oswalt would make my starting pitching staff look like this:

Peavy
Oswalt
Halladay
Bonderman
Gorzelany

with Josh Johnson and Francisco Liriano on the bench until they get healthy and Yovanni Gallardo still on the farm.  It would also let me roster Mike Pelfrey (who is also on my minor league roster) when he hits the innings limit, rather than letting him go.  So . . . do you make this deal?  I originally offered Pelfrey instead of Bailey, but he countered with this.

Well, I built my team with a lot of input from this site, so I figured I may as well get your thoughts after the fact.  I'm in year 2 of a 12 team dynasty league (we keep all of our players year to year, except each team but the league champ must drop one of their top 10 players after the season).  Each team gets a 10 man minor league roster.  I won't tell you which is mine, but I will say I think my squad is the best by a large margin.  Tell me what you think of these teams:

BUTCH COOLIDGE
Justin Upton
Felix Pie
Ryan Braun
Elvis Andrus
Jeff Niemann
Carlos Gomez
Josh Hamilton
Alberto Callaspo
Bill Rowell
Donald Veal

DA BULLS
Tim Lincecum
Luke Hochevar
Jonathan Sanchez
Glen Perkins
Ubaldo Jimenez
Evan Longoria
Clayton Kershaw
Jacoby Ellsbury
Carlos Carrasco
Chris Volstad

BITTERSWEET
Troy Tulowitzki
Neil Walker
Adam Miller
Marcus Sanders
Brad Snyder
Fernando Martinez
Nick Adenhart
Trevor Crowe
Eric Hurley
Clay Buchholz

REP
Carlos Gonzales
Michael Bourn
Dustin Nippert
Clint Naggeotte
Chris Iannetta
Miguel Montero
Joey Votto
Travis Buck
Delwyn Young
Matt Chico

REYES ON THE ROIDS
Daric Barton
Brian Dopirak
Jeff Mathis
Dustin Pedroia
Scott Thorman
James Loney
Nelson Cruz
Ryan Theriot
Eric Patterson
Chuck Lofgren

ABREU DYNASTY
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Chris B. Young
Kevin Kouzmanoff
John Danks
Carlos Ruiz
Tyler Lumsden
Elijah Dukes
Blake Hawksworth
Terry Evans

DOGGIN'S DESTROYERS
Mike Pelfrey
Homer Bailey
Yovanni Gallardo
Brandon Erbe
Andrew McCutcheon
Nolan Reimold
Hunter Pence
Jay Bruce
Reid Brignac
Colby Rasmus

THE HAIRY HOLAS
Yusmeiro Petit
Chris Lambert
Matt Kemp
Mario Mendez
Adam Lind
Josh Fields
Micah Owings
Javier Herrera
Jaoquin Arias
Mitch Talbot

UCRENEGADE
Carlos Quentin
Joel Guzman
Jason Hirsh
Troy Patton
Thomas Diamond
Jose Tabata
Ryan Sweeney
Joba Chamberlain
Travis Snyder
Lars Anderson

JON
Cesar Carillo
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Alay Soler
Adam Jones
Jason Botts
Edison Volquez
Shawn Hill
Ryan Goleski
Larry Broadway
Garrett Mock

AJ'S BUMS
Phillip Hughes
Justin Huber
Scott Elbert
Jeff Baker
Kory Casto
Joe Koshansky
Jerry Owens
Kevin Slowey
Anthony Lerew
George Kottaras

LIMA TIME
Delmon Young
Brandon Wood
Brian Bannister
Andy LaRoche
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Franklin Morales
Jacob McGee
Ian Stewart
Dexter Fowler