SBNation.com User Blog: Logan Lietz

Theo Epstein's real value to the Chicago Cubs

Logan Lietz — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 22:33:18 -0000

Theo Epstein's real value to the Chicago Cubs

What is Theo Epstein's real value to the Cubs? As the Cubs and Red Sox continue attempting to figure that out, here's my take...

Theo Epstein's real value to the Chicago Cubs

Logan Lietz — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 22:32:50 -0000

Theo Epstein's real value to the Chicago Cubs

What is Theo Epstein's real value to the Cubs? As the Cubs and Red Sox continue attempting to figure that out, here's my take...

Significance of Matt Garza Sweepstakes

Logan Lietz — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 20:37:29 -0000

Significance of Matt Garza Sweepstakes

Where is Matt Garza headed and why is it so important? I think the answer to the first part is the AL East, the answer to part two is in the article...check it out!

Significance of Matt Garza Sweepstakes

Logan Lietz — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 20:36:50 -0000

Significance of Matt Garza Sweepstakes

Where is Matt Garza headed and why is it so important? I think the answer to the first part is the AL East, the answer to part two is in the article...check it out!

Madison Bumgarner 2012 Cy Young Contender?

Logan Lietz — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 22:14:05 -0000

Madison Bumgarner 2012 Cy Young Contender?

Check out this article I wrote that details why Madison Bumgarner could be in for a breakout season in 2012 on a national level -- even as far as potentially earning serious Cy Young Award consideration. Thought McCovey Chronicles might enjoy it. Let me know what you think!

I TOLD YOU SO! Sorta.

Logan Lietz — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 23:21:53 -0000

So, I remember writing this and had to revisit after the last week of so of Red Sox related news: http://www.overthemonster.com/2010/9/15/1690025/a-bridge-over-dirty-water-part-1

Really should have finished Part 2 of that article in retrospect, especially after reading this http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7092528/terry-francona-victim-latest-red-sox-smear-campaign

Whoops!!! I think that may prompt my return from retirement.

(still visit the site daily, keep up the good work everyone!)

So, I remember writing this and had to revisit after the last week of so of Red Sox related news: http://www.overthemonster.com/2010/9/15/1690025/a-bridge-over-dirty-water-part-1

Really should have finished Part 2 of that article in retrospect, especially after reading this http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7092528/terry-francona-victim-latest-red-sox-smear-campaign

Whoops!!! I think that may prompt my return from retirement.

(still visit the site daily, keep up the good work everyone!)

Series Preview: Red Sox Look to Recoup in Cleveland

Logan Lietz — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 15:07:04 -0000

It appears as though our Red Sox, who made the biggest splash this off-season, did so with a veritable belly-flop of titanic proportions. Suffice to say, we’re all asking the same questions:

Will Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury ever recover from their injury-riddled 2010 seasons or have they become nothing more than glorified platoon players for the remainder of their careers?

Should Terry Francona start using the DH role for Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s spot in the lineup?

What is the return policy on all these Carl Crawford jerseys? Better yet, how about on Crawford himself?

Will anyone notice if we all just become Baltimore Orioles fans?

Yes, just three games into the 2011 season -- one that, at least initially, began with enormous expectations -- and Red Sox fans everywhere are already abandoning ship.

At least that’s what everyone else around Major League Baseball seems to assume.

While that’s obviously not the case and nobody is asking those questions, at least not us rational folk, it’s certainly not easy to simply move on and forget that Texas-sized trouncing our shiny new team took last weekend in Arlington. However, that’s precisely what Red Sox Nation -- and more importantly, the Red Sox themselves -- will have to do in order to get back on track en route to the ultimate goal of winning a World Series title. Then again, perhaps we should start with win number one.

Hopefully, that first victory -- maybe even the second and third -- will come this week in Cleveland, where the Red Sox open a three-game set with the Indians later this afternoon.

A preview of the series, complete with each game’s probable starters, storylines to watch and maybe even a bit of optimism sprinkled in for a change of pace, is awaiting you after the jump. So, go ahead and jump! That is, unless you are one of the irrational Red Sox fans who have already given up hope, in which case you should probably take a step back from the ledge and relax a little.

SERIES OVERVIEW

Boston Red Sox (0-3) @ Cleveland Indians (1-2)

While the Indians enter the series fresh off a 7-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday -- one that saw them turn a triple play and ride seven strong innings from former Red Sox pitcher, Justin Masterson -- it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the Tribe thus far in 2011, either. Prior to the game on Sunday, the White Sox had beaten-up on the hometown Indians’ pitching to the tune of 23 runs in the series’ first two games, both defeats for Cleveland.

All-in-all, the Indians surrendered a grand total of 24 runs in their initial three games of the season -- or two less than our visiting Red Sox did in their first three. The one difference, albeit a distinct one, is that these two teams have less-than-synonymous expectations around the baseball world and with good reason.

It’s no secret that the Indians are a franchise in rebuilding mode. So much so, that Terry Francona directly admitted to holding Josh Beckett -- who starts game one of the series later today -- out of the Boston’s first series in an effort to allow him the luxury of working out the kinks in his first start of 2011 against a more, well, friendly opponent. I’m sure in retrospect, Josh wholeheartedly appreciates the gesture after having a front row seat this last weekend in Texas.

While Red Sox fans may still be a bit squeamish at the thought of what recently happened against the Rangers, perhaps slightly more so at even the possibility of an 0-4 start, one thing is for certain: An otherwise mundane mid-week series on the road against a hapless Indians squad will be significantly more interesting given what has transpired to this point.

So, at least we got that going for us.

Probable Starters

Game 1: April 5^th, 7:05 PM ET

Josh Beckett (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Josh Tomlin (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Indians send out 26-year-old Josh Tomlin to start the series against the Red Sox. Tomlin, thankfully, is a right-hander, which bodes well for Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup. As a rookie last season, Tomlin became just the second Indians pitcher in over ninety years to last at least five innings in his first 12 career starts. In doing so, he racked-up a 6-4 record to go along with a 4.56 earned run average. In his 13 Spring Training innings, Josh allowed six earned runs and struck out nine. In 2005, Tomlin was a teammate of Clay Buchholz on the Angelina College baseball team.

Now, on to our guy.

What can you say about Josh Beckett’s 2010 campaign? A lot, if you stick with the negatives. When he wasn’t on the disabled list his performance on the field sort of made you wish he was. Of course, that’s not entirely fair as it was evident that even when he was able to perform he wasn’t at full-strength. All of the aforementioned circumstances led to a career-high 5.78 earned run average and Josh’s fewest starts (21) and wins (6) in a single season since 2002 when, coincidentally, he also started 21 and won six. If history tells us anything about Beckett, it’s that he has an strange affinity for odd-numbered years and he seemingly never has back-to-back disappointing seasons; a good sign heading into 2011 after a poor 2010. Beckett is at his best when he faces adversity and is put in big game situations. One of the last times he demonstrated this was, oddly enough, in the 2007 ALCS’ game five against the Indians. Down three games to one, Josh powered through the pressure to dominate the Indians in Cleveland and lead the Red Sox back from the brink of defeat on the way to their last World Series title. Also, for what it’s worth, Beckett’s lone start against the Indians last season was undeniably his best as he fired eight innings, allowing just one run on three hits, striking out eight and walking zero. With an 0-4 start potentially looming and needing to prove something on a personal level, look for Beckett to pitch with purpose in his first start of 2011. What that means, only time will tell.

GAME 2: April 6^th, 7:05 PM ET

Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Mitch Talbot (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Mitch Talbot, the Indians’ game two starter, did not have an effective Spring, but did manage to win 10 games and sport a respectable 4.41 ERA in 28 starts last season as part of a team that lost 93 games. Talbot faced the Red Sox just once in 2010, allowing five runs (two earned) on six hits, while walking four and striking out two in his four innings of work en route to a no decision. Despite holding opposing hitters to a .276 average a year ago, it appears Talbot represents a favorable chance for Boston’s offense to find their groove.

With the unpredictability of our own starting pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka, that’s a groove that we’ll likely need.

After winning 33 games in his first two seasons with the Red Sox after coming over from Japan, Matsuzaka has managed just 13 wins combined in 2009-10. Spring Training was a microcosm of his first four years with the Red Sox as he struggled mightily in his first three starts (8 2/3 IP, 12 H, 11 ER) before turning it around and looking brilliant in his final three (16 2/3 IP, 10 H, 3 ER). A model of inconsistency, it’s hard to expect anything except the unexpected when Daisuke toes the rubber. However, much like Beckett, Matsuzaka enters 2011 with much to prove and not a whole lot expected of him.

GAME 3: April 7^th, 12:05 PM ET

Jon Lester (0-0, 8.44 ERA) vs. Fausto Carmona (0-1, 30.00 ERA)

Like Cleveland’s game one starter, Josh Tomlin, Fausto Carmona matched a mark not seen in the Indians’ organization for over ninety years -- his is only slightly less gratifying. In his first start against the White Sox this season, Carmona tied the team record for most runs (10) surrendered in an Opening Day game and managed to do so in just three innings of work. His Spring Training numbers, aside from a March 8^th start against Arizona, were much more indicative of the type of pitcher Carmona has the potential to be. In his final four starts of the Spring, Fausto gave up just five earned runs in 21 innings. In his career against the Red Sox, Carmona is 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA. While he represents the toughest pitcher that Boston will face in this series, it’s hard not to like the Sox’s chances in this game.

Amidst staff ace discussions all off-season leading up to his first career Opening Day start, Red Sox fans had high expectations for Jon Lester entering the season. Although he did little to affirm them last Friday, allowing a career-high three home runs and striking out zero batters for the first time in the big leagues, Lester did escape without being tagged with the loss. Those who watched the game will tell you that, outside of Ian Kinsler’s leadoff home run, Lester simply was a victim of a red-hot lineup. The ball that Nelson Cruz hit out of the park, in particular, was actually a great pitch. The key to Lester’s success this time around will lie in his ability to get ahead of hitters, something he had a hard time with on Opening Day (falling behind 1-0 to 12/25 batters faced). Despite a well-known issue with beginning the season slowly (4.95 ERA in 103 2/3 career innings during the months of March/April), it’s almost unfathomable to think that Lester will have much difficulty getting back on track against Cleveland. Although, with the way things have gone for the Red Sox to this point, almost has to be the operative word there.

Other News and Notes

Red Sox shortstop Marco Scutaro, who sat out Sunday’s series finale against the Texas Rangers resulting from a partially torn finger nail, is still listed as day-to-day according to the Boston Herald on Monday. He is hitless in eight plate appearances on the season.
Indians centerfielder Grady Sizemore (knee) has begun the season on the 15-day disabled list following surgery and will not see any action against the Red Sox in their first series of the season. Sizemore took part in an exhibition game between Cleveland’s Triple-A Columbus and Double-A Akron affiliates and will partake in one more exhibition contest on Wednesday before beginning an official Minor League rehab assignment directly thereafter. He hopes to rejoin the team within the next couple of weeks.
The last time the Red Sox began a season 0-4 was in 1996 when they dropped their first five games of the season. They would end up finishing in third place in the American League East that season with a record of 85-77.
On Monday, the Red Sox announced a multiyear agreement with New Balance that recognizes the company as the official footwear and apparel sponsor of the Boston Red Sox. The team also revealed a 7.75-foot-tall and 70-foot-long, illuminated "New Balance" sign that sits atop one of Fenway Park’s new HD video boards in right field.

The Annual Clay Buchholz Speculation: 2011 Edition

Logan Lietz — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 13:17:26 -0000

It’s March again. And, for the third consecutive year, I am compelled to produce a piece asking what us fans might expect from Clay Buchholz this upcoming season. This installment, however, should bestow a more optimistic undertone for you, its readers. Rather than asking if this is the season Buchholz finally puts it all together, I will instead delve into the possibility that he repeat his positive performance from the season prior, when he did put it all together for the first time. Plus, as an added bonus, I’ll go on record and make a very public prediction of my own for what I think his 2011 numbers will look like for the first time in this article’s three-year history.

As the majority know, Spring Training appearances are hardly indicative of where a player stands developmentally heading into the season, especially in the case of a starting pitcher. However, it’s hard not to get a bit giddy glancing at Buchholz’s current numbers this spring (13 IP, 0.69 ERA) given the type of expectations he set for himself following his breakout season a year ago.

In 28 starts last season, Buchholz tallied a career-high 17 wins while losing just seven. His 187 ERA+ led the league and he became the first Red Sox pitcher to do so since Pedro Martinez accomplished the feat in 2003 (211 ERA+). That, combined with a 2.33 ERA that held firm towards the top of the American League throughout the entire season (ultimately finishing second), led to Clay’s first All-Star game appearance and a sixth place finish in the league’s Cy Young Award voting.

That breakout campaign a year ago produced an audible sigh of relief not only from Fenway’s faithful but its front office as well. The tall, lanky Buchholz finally had the type of year that warranted having kept him in Boston amidst constant murmurs regarding his inclusion in a package of players that could potentially land any of the big names that have circled the rumor mill the past few years. From Roy Halladay to Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox have been involved in nearly every big name available on the market recently and Buchholz has always been considered a likely centerpiece for any potential trade. However, Theo Epstein decided to stick with his high-ceiling right-hander despite an undeniable amount of fans and non-fans alike who had all but written Buchholz off.

It’s not entirely uncommon for a young pitcher in his third or fourth MLB season to have an unprecedented level of personal success for a single season before ultimately reverting back to their old selves, never to be heard from again. Will this be the case for Boston’s possible future staff ace or could this be the final season in which I even feel it necessary to ponder his potential production?

Now, I believe it’s only fair for me to begin this particular piece by offering the following admission: I tend to be relatively biased when it comes to discussions surrounding Clay Buchholz.

Not because -- outside of Jon Lester -- Clay is the only member of the club’s current starting staff that has yet to experience the prime of their career; not even because he pitches for the Boston Red Sox. Instead, it has more to do with the type of pitcher that Buchholz is and not the team that he pitches for.

There’s something about his repertoire of pitches and how he utilizes them to get batters out that has always fascinated me. As what you may consider an atypical baseball fan, I find myself more apt to being entertained by low-scoring, pitching-dominated affairs, not by 400-foot home runs and offensive slugfests. Similarly, pertaining to pitchers in particular, it’s those devastating off-speed offerings and perfectly executed pitching sequences that inspire me, not necessarily triple-digits on a radar gun or surreal strikeout totals.

That being said, it’s simple to see why I’m such an advocate of Clay Buchholz.

When he was first making a name for himself in Boston’s farm system, it was his curveball that garnered the most notoriety. In fact, multiple scouting publications and prospect reports are on record going as far as claiming that it was the best of any pitcher in the Red Sox’s organization -- one that, at the time, featured Josh Beckett. It’s not difficult by any means deciphering where such sensational claims stemmed from -- after all, when Buchholz made his big league debut at the age of 22, he caused even the most seasoned of hitters’ knees to buckle at the sight of his 12-6 breaker (picture Nick Markakis helplessly watching the final pitch of Buchholz’s no-hit game drop in for strike three).

And yet, at this point in his career it’s his changeup that is widely considered his most dominating pitch. As SB Nation member ThePanda points out in this FanPost entitled, A Pitch f/x Look at Clay Buchholz, Clay’s changeup ranks 7^th overall in terms of highest swinging strike percentage at 22.9%, just behind the likes of Cole Hamels (27.5%, 3^rd) and Tim Lincecum (26.3%, 5^th).

Still, despite such a strong finish to 2009 that saw Buchholz go 5-0 while lowering his ERA from 5.02 to 3.21 during a string of six consecutive quality starts extending from August 29^thto September 24^th -- in addition to the entirety of his 2010 season -- you’d be amazed to find how many doubters still linger heading into 2011.

At the same time, you’d be at an undeniably severe statistical disadvantage in attempting to dispel the validity of those naysayers’ claims. After all, even Buchholz himself will tell you that his success last season wasn’t without an element of good fortune.

For instance, on "clutch ground balls" -- used to measure the batting average opposing hitters accrued when hitting the ball on the ground with two outs and runners in scoring position -- Buchholz surrendered just one hit in 28 at-bats for a batting average of .036 in 2010.

Could that be attributed to the types and successes of his "go to" pitches, namely the changeup and curveball? Perhaps.

Does a number like that, regardless of the pitcher or what’s in his arsenal, suggest an undeniable element of luck? Certainly.

Looking at the bigger picture, Buchholz also featured an atypically low batting average on balls put in play during the course of his 2010 breakout campaign. While that number (.263) may not be shockingly low relative to other successful major league pitchers, it is notably below the MLB average of .297.

Continuing a Sabermetric, statistically oriented approach, one look at Buchholz’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) number reaffirms the negative side of the argument that suggests the young right-hander is bound for regression.

FIP effectively measures only the results that a pitcher is directly responsible for -- home runs, strikeouts and walks -- and concocts an ERA-like number based on the results. Obviously, Buchholz’s 2.33 ERA suggests his level of play to be on par with the likes of 2010’s American League Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez, who finished with a 2.27 ERA. However, his FIP (3.61), which ranked 13^th, implies that he is more comparable to, say, C.J. Wilson or Ricky Romero -- both of whom finished with earned run averages more than a full run higher than Buchholz’s 2.33 mark.

Lastly, but perhaps most poignant to this discussion, is the decrease seen in Clay’s home run allowance last season. After collectively allowing a total of 24 home runs in 168 innings during his 2008-09 campaigns, Buchholz surrendered just a total of nine over 173+ innings in 2010.

Explaining that decrease in home runs allowed is a difficult task, which brings me to one last Sabermetric measurement: I offer a look inside Clay’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP numbers. This, more or less, replaces a pitcher’s total of home runs allowed per fly ball with the league average and, again, produces an ERA-like number for comparative purposes.

Buchholz’s xFIP in 2010 was 4.20; 1.87 points higher than his ERA -- the most substantial variance amongst his peers that season.

If statistical history is any indication, Buchholz may incur a notable increase in his ERA this upcoming year. In fact, the last time a starting pitcher had a larger discrepancy than Clay’s 1.87 mark from last season was back in 2004 when Al Leiter amassed a 1.99 point difference (3.21 ERA, 5.20 xFIP). It’s worth noting that Leiter finished with a 6.13 ERA the following season in 2005.

Find it difficult relating to an Al Leiter comparison? Perhaps this one will hit closer to home: Daisuke Matsuzaka, circa 2008.

We all remember that year. As fans, we watched Daisuke tip-toe his way around base runners all season (even leading the American League in walks) like a tedious two-step dance with baseball death en route to a [surprisingly] aesthetically appeasing 2.90 ERA and 18-3 record.

The 1.80 difference between Daisuke’s ERA and xFIP (4.70) that season is the third-largest in all of baseball since 2002, just behind Buchholz’s 1.87 mark from a year ago. Unfortunately, just as vivid as the memories of his 2.90 ERA in ‘08 are in the minds of Red Sox fans is the number he posted the following season -- 5.76.

So, is it safe to say that Buchholz’s control of the long ball last season was merely a result of luck and that it will inevitably catch up to him in 2011, leading to disappointing results?

In my admittedly biased opinion, it’s unlikely -- not on a Daisuke-like level, anyway.

It’s no secret that much of Buchholz’s appeal as he skyrocketed through the Red Sox’s minor league ranks was caused by an impressive ability to strike hitters out in masses. It’s also pretty common knowledge that last season, by far the most productive to this point in his career from a statistical standpoint, saw a rather severe dip in his strikeout totals per nine innings pitched. Despite a career low mark of 6.2 K/9, Clay flourished in 2010 -- something he maintains was by design.

"[Strikeouts] are fun," said Buchholz in an interview last September. "Any time you get two strikes on someone, you want to strike them out. You can only strike them out when you have two strikes. You can’t strike them out before then. That’s the way I started thinking about it. Throw to contact early and if you get two strikes, try to finish them."

Aside from an evident progression from a mechanical point of view, it’s quotes such as that last one that suggest an evenly important growth in his maturation as a pitcher; a self-induced alteration of his mentality on the mound, which, all numbers aside, could prove to be the most influential evolution in the development of Buchholz’s game.

Finding comparable careers to that of Buchholz’s is not an easy task. Rarely does a pitcher enter the league in his early 20’s and incur such an inordinate amount of immediate success, then proceed to struggle so mightily (2008-09, 9-13, 5.35 ERA) before returning to his previously dominant form as Clay did last season.

Recently, the name Roy Halladay was used synonymously with Clay Buchholz relative to early career success -- seemingly due to the fact that, like Buchholz, Halladay’s first full professional season as a starting pitcher at the MLB level came at the age of 25, and with similar results.

The flaw in that comparison is that Roy Halladay, outside of a dismal 2000 season, never truly met adversity at the big league level, reaffirming the near-unanimous opinion that the future Hall of Famer [Halladay] is simply on a level of his own -- a level Clay Buchholz could only prematurely be placed on.

With that in mind, I offer this comparison instead: Zack Greinke.

I have always considered the two -- Greinke and Buchholz -- to be eerily comparable in more ways than one.

Aside from an obvious shared stature -- both 6’2"-6’3" and weigh in around 190 lbs -- the two right-handers have considerably correlative pitch repertoires. Like Buchholz, Greinke uses a mid-90’s fastball that serves as a compliment to his well-above average array of off-speed options, namely a 12-6 curveball and overwhelmingly effective changeup.

Sound familiar?

The similarities don’t end there.

Both have been said to, at least early in their careers, have a tendency to surrender the long ball then proceed to nitpick the strike zone as a result, often leading to a negative snowball effect on the mound. We’ll dig deeper into that in just a second. First, let’s take a look at a brief summary of Greinke’s first few MLB seasons in relation to Buchholz’s.

Zack Greinke made his major league debut in 2004 at the age of 20. He enjoyed high levels of success relative to a pitcher his age, going 8-11 with a respectable 3.97 ERA en route to winning the American League’s Rookie of the Year honors. Like a 22-year-old Clay Buchholz would just three years later (2007) following a no-hitter in just his second career start, Zack Greinke would make a name for himself at the big league level at a very young age.

The celebration would prove brief for Greinke, just as it would for Buchholz after him.

The following season (2005), Greinke tallied an astounding 17 losses and watched as his ERA ballooned to 5.80.

From 2006-2007, Greinke struggled to find his role at the big league level as he fought through a bout with social anxiety disorder and depression off the field. He started just 14 games in those two seasons, going 8-7 while seeing a good majority of his work out of the bullpen as a reliever. Just as Buchholz would following his no-hit heroics, Zack Greinke had met his first large-scale obstacle at the major league level.

Now, allow me to transition back to my earlier sentiments regarding both pitchers’ susceptibility to surrendering the home run. Let’s compare the numbers from the aforementioned successive seasons in which each pitcher encountered their worst struggles on the mound and how their HR/9 numbers relate.

‘05-06 Zack Greinke: 6-17, 189.3 IP, 5.75 ERA, 1.3 HR/9

‘08-09 Clay Buchholz: 9-13, 168 IP, 5.35 ERA, 1.3 HR/9

In 2008, at the age of 24, Greinke righted the veritable ship that was his career as a starting pitcher, going 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, much like Buchholz did during the second half of his own 24-year-old season in 2009.

Finally, a look at each of their 25-year-old seasons -- which resulted in both of their first All-Star game appearances as well as the best statistical years of their respective careers -- effectively puts the stamp on the comparison.

‘09 Zack Greinke (age 25): 16-8, 2.16 ERA, 0.4 HR/9

‘10 Clay Buchholz (age 25): 17-7, 2.33 ERA, 0.5 HR/9

For those of you still intently following my logic, assuming you agree with it in the first place, it seems only fitting to use Greinke’s 26-year-old numbers from a season ago in an attempt to do a bit of foreshadowing surrounding our expectations for Buchholz in 2011.

2010 Zack Greinke (age 26): 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 0.7 HR/9

*2011 Clay Buchholz (age 26): 14-8, 3.54 ERA, 0.8 HR/9

*Based on The Bill James Handbook: Projections 2011

It appears as though Bill James and I are like-minded relative to our expectations for Clay Buchholz in 2011. While I consider the parallels between Buchholz and Zack Greinke as pitchers to be rather conspicuous, I do believe that Clay is in a better position to succeed in his 26-year-old season than Greinke was during his -- which would be exemplified by the .219 difference in W-L% and 0.63 contrast in ERA if Bill James’ projections prove accurate.

All comparisons aside, Clay Buchholz appears ready to assume the role of a reliable major league starting pitcher in 2011. While he won’t be afforded the luxury of "sneaking up" on teams as a result of his 2010 showing, it would be logical to believe that the extra year of experience and increased level of maturity should supersede his newfound reputation around the league.

So, while I agree with his xFIP numbers and other Sabermetric measurements that forcefully suggest an inevitable regression, I don’t believe it will be of perturbing proportions.

Without further a due, and for the first time since I started my annual Buchholz-speculation article, I risk public ridicule by offering a prediction of my own for Clay Buchholz's 2011 stat-line:

*2011 Clay Buchholz: 28-2, 0.23 ERA, -0.2 HR/9

What can I say? You were warned of the bias.

*These predictions are in no way endorsed by the entire Over the Monster staff, collectively.

OTM Featured in BallHyped's Best Blogs of 2010 Book

Logan Lietz — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 04:36:41 -0000

OTM Featured in BallHyped's Best Blogs of 2010 Book

BallHyped released it's 'The Best Sports Blogs of 2010' book and one of the articles I wrote (titled: Red Sox Amending Bridge Period Via Draft) was included amongst a bunch of others from around the web in 2010. Nice exposure for OTM, check it out! You can download the ebook for $5 or buy the hard copy for $24.

Denouncing Baseball Fans' Elitism

Logan Lietz — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 03:33:49 -0000

Baseball season is almost here. Then again, if you’re like me, you would argue that it never left; there is no off-season for a real MLB fan.

Baseball is a sport unlike any other. It takes a unique type of athlete to excel at our national pastime, which requires such an array of special skills. As a result, it takes a unique kind of person to truly appreciate it.

If you don’t share the same enthusiasm -- or in my case, giddiness -- for the looming MLB season as the rest of us diehards, that's fine. There are those people and then, more or less, there are these people:

What is so great about baseball? It’s just a bunch of overpaid grown men standing around ‘adjusting themselves’ for hours on end, only occasionally taking a break to chase down a fly ball while two of them play a glorified game of "keep away" from some guy with a bat in the middle of the field. Baseball fans are just a bunch of stat geeks. I’d rather watch paint dry…

As baseball fans, we hear it all too often. And for years now, we’ve reverted to the same generic, basic rebuttal:

You just don’t get it.

Not because we can’t explain what makes baseball so great, but because it would simply take too much time. Besides, the reality is that the majority of people, through no fault of their own, really don’t get it. By no means is that intended to sound condescending, it's just the way it is.

After my most recent proclamation of "you just don't understand," I, and those [baseball fans] like me, were called elitists. Initially, I took it as an insult. After further deliberation, however, I consider it something like an indirect, backhanded compliment.

Allow me to take you inside the mind of a so-called baseball elitist and finally elaborate a bit on exactly what you non-fans may not be understanding.

Baseball season is almost here. Then again, if you’re like me, you would argue that it never left; there is no off-season for a real MLB fan.

As baseball fans, we hear it all too often. And for years now, we’ve reverted to the same generic, basic rebuttal:

You just don’t get it.

Allow me to take you inside the mind of a so-called baseball elitist and finally elaborate a bit on exactly what you non-fans may not be understanding.

Let me start by saying, chances are that if you're reading this article, obviously posted on a baseball-related website, you're already a fan of the sport. Not a whole lot of the general views reflected on and expressed in these words are going to be regarded as innovative or original by you; that was never my intent. Instead, I wanted to create something tangible that can be used as a reference point the next time I'm inevitably deemed an elitist -- so, feel free to use it in the same light.

For us Red Sox fans, 2011 brings with it unprecedented expectations after what could be considered one of the greatest and most productive offseasons in our organization's history. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, Boston’s most notable acquisitions this winter, have the team as near-unanimous favorites to win the American League.

Of course, some people will argue that it’s easier to get excited for baseball season when you’re favorite team has a substantial financial advantage over nearly every other organization, and as a result, annually contends for a playoff spot -- as is the case with myself and fans of other large market teams -- a fact that is hard to refute.

To those people, I revert back to the introduction of this article. No mention of the Red Sox, or any team for that matter, specifically. It is baseball that I am excited for.

After all is said and done, I am, in fact, an undeniably passionate Red Sox fan. Most of all, though, I am a fan of baseball in general and all that it embodies.

Some fans claim that it’s difficult for them to sit through even their favorite team play nine innings. I, admittedly, am not normal in this regard.

During a typical day in the MLB season, I make every effort to watch other teams’ day games around the league [courtesy of an MLB.TV subscription] that serve as veritable appetizers to my main course, the Red Sox game, before catching a west coast night game for dessert. Then it’s off to bed where I dream about waking up and doing it all over again. I don’t care who’s playing, I just love watching baseball. I would pay admission to see a sloppy 15-inning game between two high school teams that lasts five hours in freezing temperatures wearing shorts and a t-shirt while suffering flu-like symptoms and still be content.

Again, probably not normal. I’m aware of this.

As poetic as baseball is, it’s no wonder that one of its most notable advocates was Walt Whitman, who once said, “I see great things in baseball. It’s our game - the American game.” Baseball is indeed America’s pastime, and its American symbolism has been well documented throughout history by some of the country’s most influential figures.

No need for me to elaborate; even those who find baseball boring are well-versed in all of that. After all, it's the game’s reputation for beauty that tends to draw people to it initially.

Unfortunately, what isn’t as well-documented is the same reason that causes those who “don’t understand” to shy away.

The fact of the matter is baseball, more than any other sport, requires a thorough understanding and appreciation for all its oft-overlooked nuances in order to make prolonged viewing tolerable for the average observer. Granted, the same sentiments can be applied to other sports, in my opinion, they’re most applicable to the game of baseball.

After all, you can watch football and basketball for example without any real semblance of what is happening and still be entertained by the conspicuous display of sheer athleticism and continuous fast-paced action. That's not to say that either of those particular sports are without their own intricacies, it's just that baseball, by design, is not afforded the same luxury of aesthetic appeasement to its relative outsiders.

I have always maintained that, in most cases, it takes someone who has, at one time or another, played baseball at a relatively high level to truly appreciate all that happens in your average three-hour game -- the majority of which is spent watching players stand idly by as pitchers, catchers and members of the coaching staff relay signs in-between pitches.

It takes a certain kind of person to seek a comprehensive understanding of such a complex game, which again, is almost impossible without having played it in the first place.

It’s that unsung cerebral aspect of baseball that I believe makes it so interesting for some, and in turn, so uninteresting for others. That’s not to say people who don’t enjoy baseball are necessarily unintelligent or that every baseball fan is some superior genius. However, like I said -- and again, this does pertain to all sports in some degree -- there are massive amounts of small details that go unnoticed by the casual observer. In baseball, those details simply have a tendency to be more influential, frequent and unmasked by raw athleticism when compared to, again, sports like football and basketball.

Understandably, not everybody appreciates the intricacy of a pitcher and catcher’s individual game plan for each opposing hitter, incorporating all potential circumstances and game situations or how it’s constantly improvised and reevaluated following almost every pitch. It’s hard for casual fans to appreciate how each pitch is influenced by that which preceded it -- much less how each of those pitches themselves are indirectly influenced by everything from the number of outs, who is on base and where, what the score is, who is hitting, which guy is on deck and even who is up after him -- just to list a fraction of them. Which is why most of those who fail to appreciate what’s going on between pitches, for instance, consider nearly every ball that isn’t put in play by the hitter a waste of their attention span.

However, the truth is there is a very pertinent correlation between, say, the first five pitches of an at-bat and the sixth that ends up getting hit 400 feet. Unfortunately, only the sixth is perceived as entertaining by those who aren’t conscious of that correlation; only the sixth makes Sportscenter. It's the same principal behind another more-often-than-not misunderstood sport, hockey, and its ability to only receive ESPN's attention when players score goals; even more so when they fight.

That’s without any mention of other small in-game intricacies like a timely hit-and-run calls, defensive positioning and pre, post and mid-game lineup maneuvers.

A study of each MLB team’s average game duration in 2009 revealed that the Red Sox and New York Yankees were again well-above the league average [2 hours, 52 minutes] at 3 hours, 4 minutes and 3 hours, 8 minutes, respectively. Is it any wonder that the same two teams nearly always at the top of such a list simultaneously find themselves atop the list of the league’s best teams? Of course not, it simply speaks on behalf of each club’s preparation, both pre-game and in-game -- not to mention that the more a team is featured on national broadcasts, which are marred by prolonged commercial breaks, the longer their average game duration tends to be. It’s more than a matter of payroll.

All that being said, it goes without saying that baseball is more than merely a glorified mind game and is certainly not lacking in athleticism. The difference between what is considered athletic in regards to baseball versus that which is similarly labeled in other notable sports, however, is what makes it so unique.

Consider that in most other sports, it’s not exactly rare for a team’s draft selections to contribute, and even excel, in their first professional seasons merely as a result of physical abilities. In baseball, even the top collegiate level draft selections require a significant amount of seasoning in the minor leagues in order to prepare them for all that is incorporated in the utmost professional level, regardless of how physically gifted they may be. A fact that only exemplifies exactly how demanding the sport of baseball is on almost an unimaginable number of levels that are not limited to the physical realm.

Unparalleled in any other sport is baseball’s requirement for those who find success at higher levels of competition to boast a near-perfect blend of mental, physical and instinctual abilities.

As Yogi Berra once put it, “Baseball is ninety percent mental; the other half is physical.”

With such an inordinate percentage of the game happening inside the players’ and coaches’ heads, unseen and unnoticed by those not privy of the fact, it’s no wonder people who don’t enjoy baseball the way some of us do feel as though they must be missing something. The fact is, they are missing everything. Even the parts they do find entertaining are shrouded in aspects of the game that remain unbeknownst to them.

When your average casual fan's favorite player flails half-heartedly at a curveball that bounces before it even reaches home plate for strike three, they're disgusted. They shout, "What is he thinking?!?!"

It's at that point when those people should take a second to consider exactly what they just asked.

For instance, when my second favorite player does the same -- I say second because my favorite player is Dustin Pedroia, who would never do such a thing -- I reconsider the sequence of pitches that came before it and [most of the time] understand why; I know exactly what he was thinking.

Understanding the mentality of a baseball player is half the battle -- or ninety percent of it according to Yogi Berra's logic.

University of Missouri psychologist Mike Stadler, who did a study on the mental abilities and traits of Major League Baseball players, summed it up better than I ever could in his book, “The Psychology of Baseball.” In it, Stadler wrote, “Baseball is impossible without psychology; impossible to play, and impossible to appreciate fully as a fan. Watch any game, and most of what you see is thinking.”

Despite how much I love it, it’s completely understandable to me that baseball is not for everyone. I'm not saying that everyone in the world should love baseball, even if they do "get it." I'm not even claiming that it's the greatest sport in the world because, really, who I am to judge such a thing?

What I do know is that it’s a game that requires not just constant attention to all the small nuances but an understanding of them as well. If someone doesn’t already own a comprehensive understanding of the game, what are the odds that they’ll take the time to seek it? Not surprisingly, not good.

And I'm not here to chastise you or the sports you love because baseball may not be your thing. I just ask that the next time someone around you denounces the sport that I love, tell them that they 'just don't understand' on my behalf. Better yet, point them in the direction of this article for me.

As far as the term elitist -- well, consider the amount of people willing to take the time to understand baseball for all it’s worth and those who are good enough to gain that understanding through playing it at a high level and you’ve got yourself a very small, you may even say elite, group of people.

Elitism, by general definition, is the belief that certain people or groups deserve preferential treatment as a result of thier perceived superiority -- whether that pertains to class, intellect or monetary and financial matters. I'm not asking for preferential treatment, I'm just asking for understanding. In reality, baseball elitists are a group of people that do have intellectual superiority, even if it does only pertain to our sport's small, subtle nuances.

So go ahead and label baseball fans elitists, we understand.

After all, that's my whole point.

Top Moments '10: No. 5 - Opening Night Comeback

Logan Lietz — Sat, 11 Dec 2010 14:05:55 -0000

Opening Night in Major League Baseball; just one game on the schedule.

The defending champion New York Yankees entered Boston on April 4^th (Easter) to play 2010’s first regular season contest. Airing nationally on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, the game featured a prime-time pitching match up and two of the early favorites to reach postseason play in the American League.

With Josh Beckett on the hill for the Red Sox and C.C. Sabathia slated to start for the Yankees -- in addition to Boston’s new preventative defense-first lineup -- many expected a low scoring and hard-fought game between two of the game’s most storied franchises. That, they did not get.

Instead, what transpired was an emotionally charged back-and-forth affair with an ending that didn’t disappoint -- as if that were ever in doubt.

Everybody wants their team to win game one. For Red Sox fans, this particular opener was even more meaningful. Not only was it played against the Yankees who were fresh off a World Series title with the rest of the league watching, but it was also the first time fans would be introduced to the "bridge year" version of their Sox. For the first time in years, the Red Sox were defensively oriented. Needless to say, nobody knew exactly what to expect.

What followed was yet another Red Sox vs. Yankees classic, something fans should always expect when these two organizations get together.

OTM COVERAGE: Randy Booth’s recap of top moment number five of 2010 (April 4, 2010)

GAME RECAP (via Yahoo! Sports): 04/04/2010 - Boston Red Sox 9 New York Yankees 7

Inning number one for Josh Beckett went about as expected. If you’ve watched Josh pitch enough, you’re well aware that he tends to lean heavily on his fastball the first time through a lineup, assumedly in an attempt to establish a rhythm and avoid giving opposing hitters a look at his secondary stuff early, allowing him to utilize it later on in the game when the fastball may not have the same zip as it did early on.

The Yankees had likely established that same fact in their scouting report for Boston‘s starter. After all, they’ve seen enough of Beckett during his time with Florida and Boston to know what to expect.

With that in mind, Yankees leadoff hitter Derek Jeter jumped on the first pitch he saw -- a fastball -- but grounded out to Boston’s new shortstop, Marco Scutaro, for the game’s first out. Nick Johnson would follow by driving a fastball to deep center but right into the glove of Jacoby Ellsbury, thankfully, for out number two. Mark Teixeira ended the initial frame by grounding out to first baseman Kevin Youkilis. Not a pretty start for the Sox, but they got the job done.

A bit of foreshadowing, perhaps?

After Sabathia set down Ellsbury, Pedroia and Victor Martinez in succession during the home half of the first, it appeared as though those fans expecting a low-scoring game would not be let down. However, inning number two would alter that perception.

The frame began innocently enough; Alex Rodriguez grounded out to Beckett and Robinson Cano lined out to center for a quick two outs. Yankees catcher Jorge Posada stepped in with two outs and nobody on and proceeded to do something no other hitter had done against Beckett in any of his four career Opening Day starts -- hit a home run. The shot to right field deflated the hometown crowd and dug the Red Sox an early 1-0 hole. The Yankees’ offense, however, was not finished.

Unimpressed with Posada’s accomplishment, as well as Beckett’s fastball apparently, in stepped Curtis Granderson for his first official at-bat as a member of the Yankees -- and it was a memorable one, to say the least. Granderson blasted a Beckett offering into deep right-center field for back-to-back home runs.

After being just one out away from a second scoreless frame to start the game, Beckett and the Red Sox quickly found themselves down 2-0 in just the second inning. Visibly shaken, Beckett would surrender consecutive singles to the eight and nine hitters, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner, before finally retiring Jeter to stop the bleeding.

On the to the bottom of the second, Yankees leading 2-0.

Kevin Youkilis led off with a double to left-center and would advance to third after a David Ortiz groundout. Like Granderson before him, Adrian Beltre would make an immediate impact in his first at-bat with his new team by scoring Youkilis by way of sacrifice fly. Despite an inning-ending strikeout by J.D. Drew, Youkilis’ run reenergized the hometown crowd and cut the Yankees’ lead in half.

Through two: Yankees 2, Red Sox 1.

After both teams broke out offensively in the second inning, the pressure was back on starters Beckett and Sabathia to regain composure in what was an electric atmosphere on this particular night. Aside from a leadoff walk to Boston’s Marco Scutaro, neither offense would manage anything in inning number three.

Pitcher’s duel back on track? Not so fast.

Robinson Cano led off the fourth with a double but would risk being stranded at third base after consecutive groundouts by Posada and Granderson. A two-out walk to Swisher put runners on the corners, and the Yankees would add on to their lead following back-to-back run-scoring singles by Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter. Leading 4-1 at that point, with Gardner on third and Jeter on first, New York scored after successfully completing a double steal. While Nick Johnson would end the inning by way of strikeout, the damage was done.

Needing an answer in the fourth, the Red Sox offense produced nothing of the sort. Three up [Pedroia, Martinez, Youkilis], three down.

After four: Yankees 5, Red Sox 1.

Back on the mound with a bad taste in his mouth and little time to recover from the previous inning’s troubles, Beckett would again quickly retire the first two hitters before running into more trouble. With two outs, Cano singled to deep right and advanced into scoring position following a walk to Posada.

Exit, Josh Beckett. Enter, Scott Schoeneweis. Exit, Fenway fans' enthusiasm.

After a wild pitch that advanced both runners into scoring position, Schoeneweis would strike Granderson out to avoid falling any further behind.

Sabathia, who had retired nine straight hitters and seemed to be finding his flow, entered the fifth with a 5-1 lead and all the momentum on his side.

However, using a little two-out magic of their own, Boston would ride back-to-back singles from Drew and Scutaro, as well as a fielding error by Brett Gardner, to plate their second run of the game and give the home fans a little more hope as they entered the final four innings down 5-2.

In the top of the sixth, Schoeneweis and Ramon Ramirez would maneuver around a two-out single by Jeter to put a much needed zero on the Green Monster scoreboard, giving the offense a chance to cut further into the New York lead in the home half.

After a Pedroia walk and Martinez double to start the sixth, Kevin Youkilis brought the home team within one run of the lead after tripling to right field despite the enormous piano he carried on his back around the bases. The tying run on third and with one out (a David Ortiz groundout), Sabathia was pulled from the game, giving way to reliever David Robertson. Beltre met Robertson with a game-tying RBI-single, plating Youkilis for the Red Sox first baseman’s second run of the game. Although J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron would go down quietly to end the inning, momentum was back on the home team’s side with the game knotted-up.

Six complete: Yankees 5, Red Sox 5.

Ramon Ramirez did his best to give that momentum right back to New York after walking Teixeira in front of Alex Rodriguez, who followed with a double, to start the seventh. Hideki Okajima was called on for damage control following Ramirez’s exit. New York had other plans as Cano produced the go-ahead run, grounding out to Dustin Pedroia. With Rodriguez standing on third, Okajima would surrender an RBI-single to Posada, who ended the night 3-4 with a pair of RBI. Okajima would go on to walk Granderson before getting a clutch double play ball off the bat of Nick Swisher to end any remaining threat.

Through 6 ½ innings: Yankees 7, Red Sox 5.

In the bottom of the seventh, Robertson would give way to reliever Chan Ho Park. Thankfully, the only relief Park provided would be in Boston’s favor.

Marco Scutaro, continuing what was an impressive Boston debut, led off the inning with a single to center -- part of a 2-3 (RBI, R, BB) night for the Sox’s new shortstop. After an Ellsbury strikeout for out number one, Dustin Pedroia crushed a Park offering Over the Monster (see what I did there?) to bring the game back to even at seven runs a piece. Later in the inning, Youkilis would double with two outs, knocking Chan Ho Park from the game after surrendering three runs in less than an inning of work.

Damaso Marte entered the game for what would be an interesting outing. After allowing Youkilis to advance to third on a wild pitch, Marte and catcher Jorge Posada combined for a run-scoring passed ball. Marte would walk Ortiz to finish his outing, giving way to Joba Chamberlain who ended the frame with a groundball off the bat of Adrian Beltre.

Nonetheless, the damage had been done and Boston had their first lead of the 2010 season, one that they would not relinquish.

Seven in the books: Yankees 7, Red Sox 8.

Daniel Bard was called on for the eighth inning and came through with a scoreless frame.

The Red Sox would add-on to the 8-7 lead in their half of the eighth after Dustin Pedroia singled home Mike Cameron with two outs for the ninth and final run of the game for Boston.

Jonathan Papelbon would close out the ninth, ending a rollercoaster game with playoff-like atmosphere that gave fans reason for optimism regarding the remaining 161 games. While that optimism, in retrospect, was unwarranted, this remains one of the most notable wins for Boston in 2010.

Final score: MFY 7, Red Sox 9.

Game Notes

- Boston’s new acquisitions -- Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre -- who were originally brought in for defensive purposes, combined to go 5-9, with 2 BB, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored in their first game with the Red Sox.

- This was the first night opener in Fenway Park’s then-98-year-old history.

- In what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel, starters Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia’s combined stat line read: 10 IP, 14 H, 10 R (all earned), 5 BB, 2 HR.

- Pedro Martinez, who received an enormous ovation, was on hand to throw out the game’s first pitch.

- Boston’s Opening Day victory was their first of the sort against the Yankees since 1985.

- The Red Sox improved to 20-14 all-time when playing on Easter.

- Kevin Youkilis [2 2B, 3B] became the first Red Sox player to record three extra base hits on Opening Day since 1973 when Carlton Fisk had a double and a pair of home runs. Ironically, that game also occurred at Fenway Park against the visiting Yankees.

- Despite his rough outing, Beckett [4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K] is still one of the better Opening Day starters in all of baseball. His career numbers, including this game, look like this: 5 GS, 27.1 IP, 9 ER, 2.96 ERA.

- Before Brett Gardner accomplished the feat as part of a double steal in the fourth inning of this game, the last time Boston allowed a theft of home to an opposing base runner was July 5, 2006, in the fourth inning of a game at Tampa Bay. The base runner? Everyone’s favorite former Tampa Bay Ray, Carl Crawford.

***COME BACK TOMORROW FOR TOP MOMENT NUMBER FOUR FROM 2010!***

Yankees Lose Lee, Philly Agrees With Ace

Logan Lietz — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 05:54:32 -0000

Yankees Lose Lee, Philly Agrees With Ace

Via MLB.com. The Phillies emerge from nowhere to sign Lee. Now what for the Yankees? Is this the single greatest off-season in Red Sox history?

Top Moments '10: No. 10 - Bard Blows By Bronx Bombers

Logan Lietz — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:59:22 -0000

After the type of season that Boston endured in 2010, it seems only fitting that we start our top ten moments list with one that gives fans a reason to look enthusiastically towards the future. The future, in this instance, is represented by Daniel Bard.

By now, it’s no secret that the Boston Red Sox plan to eventually replace the franchise’s all-time saves leader, Jonathan Papelbon, with Bard as the team’s closer. Whether that happens sooner rather than later remains to be seen. One thing, however, is certain: If 2011 is the year that Bard supplants Papelbon, he’ll be more than ready to assume the type of duties that accompany closing games for a perennial championship contender, in what is almost annually regarded as baseball’s toughest division, nonetheless.

At no time did Daniel demonstrate this more than the night of August 9, 2010 against the hated New York Yankees.

OTM COVERAGE: Ben Buchanan's recap of top moment number ten of 2010 (August 9, 2010)

GAME RECAP (via ESPN.com): 08/09/2010 - Boston Red Sox 2 New York Yankees 1

Allow me to paint a picture depicting the scene to which Bard entered on this night.

The Red Sox arrived in New York three days prior with a record of 62-47, six games behind the division-leading Yankees (67-40), to open a crucial four-game set against their most bitter of rivals. After opening the series with a 6-3 victory, headed by Clay Buchholz’s 7 1/3 stellar innings and Ryan Kalish’s first career home run, Boston found themselves just five games out of first with three more in the Bronx to further cut into New York’s lead.

However, games two and three of this particular series weren’t quite as compelling – for Sox fans, anyway. John Lackey and Josh Beckett, originally intended as the leaders of Boston’s formidable starting rotation by way of both excellence and experience, were both mediocre – microcosms of their seasons as a whole – in back-to-back defeats by a combined score of 12-4.

So, there Boston was – now even further back in the standings (seven games) despite a series-opening win, desperately needing a victory in game four to simply salvage a split and avoid losing any more ground in the tumultuous American League East.

With Jon Lester slated to start for the Sox, it wouldn’t have been a stretch to assume that, if Boston wound up winning, it would be by way of quality pitching. And if the previous three games of this series were any indication, the Red Sox’s relief corps would have a hand in it as well. Both rang true by the end of the night.

Boston used five hits and a throwing error by Yankees’ catcher Jorge Posada to eek-out a pair of runs in the game’s first two innings. After that, however, the Red Sox would manage just one more hit and zero runs in the remainder of the affair. Thankfully, Jon Lester was, well, Jon Lester on this night.

Through the first four innings, New York’s typically potent lineup was held hitless, striking out three times and stranding the three base runners that did reach via walk. Cruising, and the beneficiary of a 2-0 lead heading into the home half of the seventh, Lester finally ran into some trouble.

Jorge Posada led off the frame with a single before advancing to third following a double to deep right field by Marcus Thames. Shaken, and with the tying runs standing in scoring position, Lester proceeded to plunk Austin Kearns to load the bases with nobody out. Lester would stay in to face Curtis Granderson (a lifetime .209 hitter vs. lefties) who followed with a timely strikeout -- his second in an 0-4 night at the plate -- ultimately setting the stage for the hero and subject of moment number ten, Daniel Bard.

In Boston’s game one victory, Bard earned his 24^th hold of the season by retiring Lance Berkman and Curtis Granderson, stranding Robinson Cano on second base following his one-out double that knocked starter Clay Buchholz out of the game. In that game, Bard had a 6-3 lead to work and would never have to face a hitter representing the tying run.

In this one, however, he entered the game not only with the tying run already in scoring position, but the go-ahead run standing on first base as well. That’s without even mentioning that he was scheduled to face the top of the lineup in what was, at the time, considered a must-win game for his Red Sox.

Derek Jeter, 1-3 with a walk in his four at-bats leading up to the seventh, dug-in to face Daniel Bard with intentions of adding to his Yankee legacy. However, three pitches from Bard -- all fastballs no slower than 98 mph -- put an end to any hopes of that nature. After the first two fastballs located on the inside portion of the plate put Jeter in an 0-2 hole, Bard elevated a third and final one on the outer half, blowing it by the over-matched Yankees captain for the crucial second out.

After consecutive bases-loaded strikeouts, the Yankees were stripped of any momentum that they had garnered in the inning and were now in danger of stranding three runners late in a game in which they struggled to mount any offense in the first place.

In stepped Nick Swisher. In his first four plate appearances, Swisher went 0-4 with a pair of strikeouts while facing Lester. Against Bard, he would fare no better.

Bard, apparently an advocate of the old adage "if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it," took the very same approach with Swisher as the one used to retire Jeter. Like the approach, the results were also eerily similar. Just as Jeter did, Swisher watched the first fastball go by for a called strike before fouling off the second to dig himself an unenviable 0-2 hole.

The third and final fastball may very well be Bard’s best pitch of his still-young career.

Clocked at 99 miles per hour with an intense tailing action, Swisher flailed and missed badly at strike three – with extra emphasis on badly. Given how unhittable the third strike was, it’s hard to blame Swisher. He couldn’t hit it even if Thames had been successfully stealing and relaying signs from second base.

See the sequence of pitches for yourself: Video via MLB.com

"That last pitch he threw me, man, 99 miles per hour. It’s not supposed to move like that," Swisher said after the game, reflecting on just how devastating Bard’s final fastball was.

Despite allowing a 416 foot home run to Mark Teixeira at the onset of the eighth, Daniel Bard earned his then league-leading 25^th hold after Jonathan Papelbon closed out the Sox’s much needed 2-1 win.

After the game, Bard said, "I was just trying to keep them in the infield, not necessarily strike them out."

Thanks to moment number ten, the future looks bright for the back end of the Red Sox bullpen. Especially in the event that Daniel Bard enters a game with the intention of striking hitters out, and even more so if those hitters are of the Yankee variety.

* Be sure to return tomorrow for the Red Sox's top moment #9 of 2010

A Bridge Over Dirty Water (Part 1)

Logan Lietz — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 07:03:01 -0000

How quickly circumstances can change in the world of professional baseball.

Precisely one year ago, the Boston Red Sox, having just completed an impressive three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, improved to 85-58 and extended their winning streak to six games with a victory over John Lackey and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Today, the forecast in Boston is noticeably different than it was then.

John Lackey has since left the Angels, signing a lucrative off-season contract with the Red Sox as a free agent following the 2009 season. He is joined by other notable newcomers such as Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre.

Jacoby Ellsbury now wears jersey number two while Clay Buchholz opted to switch to eleven.

The most glaring difference between this season and last, however, is where the team finds themselves in the standings, and more importantly, the race for the postseason.

Last season, Boston had all but eliminated the Rays’ postseason potential with that three-game sweep and increased their wild card lead to relatively comfortable levels – a lead that would ultimately hold up as the Red Sox claimed second place in the East and were awarded a date in the American League Divisional Series with the Angels.

Nowadays, for the first time since 2006, some of Red Sox Nation has reallocated their sports enthusiasm almost entirely; partially caused by the beginning of the NFL season, but mainly due to the fact that, like 2006, their beloved Sox will likely miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.

While that unfortunate fact is perhaps the most distinct difference, it may not be the most interesting. Take, for instance, the cases of both Jacoby Ellsbury and Terry Francona, who have gone from unanimously admired in Boston to the topics of constant scrutiny in a considerably brief period of time.

One year ago today, Ellsbury was amidst the most statistically impressive season of his young career and was establishing himself as an elite major league leadoff hitter. Meanwhile, manager Terry Francona was in the process of leading Boston to the postseason for the fifth time in just his sixth season at the helm. Both were arguably at the peak of their popularity amongst the Fenway faithful. However, 2010 has ushered a swift shift in that regard.

All of the sudden Jacoby Ellsbury – second only to Dustin Pedroia in games played a season ago – is being questioned in regards his durability and defensive abilities. Terry Francona – baselessly nicknamed "Francoma" – is now, according to some, inept and undeserving of the very same managerial duties that he’s performed so successfully during his tenure with the team to this point.

In 2009, nobody seemed to mind Ellsbury’s .301 batting average, team-leading 188 hits and Red Sox record-setting 70 stolen bases at the top of the lineup; there were no mentions of defensive liabilities then. Terry Francona wasn’t being second-guessed in the aftermath of every loss when his team was contending.

So, why now? Did Jacoby suddenly forget how to hit and play center field during his time on the disabled list? Has Francona managed to unlearn the skills that have helped guide two championships to Boston?

Yes, those questions are rhetorical. But, rhetoric aside, the question remains: What has caused such a drastic shift in public opinion of the two, Ellsbury specifically?

Let’s take a look at both situations more in-depth, starting first with Jacoby Ellsbury.

Thanks to a nagging injury to his ribs -- sustained in a collision with Adrian Beltre during the season’s early goings – that resulted in a substantial amount of time on the disabled list, Jacoby Ellsbury has gone from Fenway favorite to the subject of near-universally negative discussion. Whether pertaining to questions surrounding his toughness and defensive abilities, altercations involving the organization’s medical personnel, or the subsequent trade rumors, there’s no denying the contrast in public opinion of Ellsbury now from where it was less than a year ago.

In MLB.com’s 2009 This Year in Baseball Awards -- decided entirely by fan voting -- the Defensive Player of the Year was, ironically enough, Jacoby Ellsbury.

From MLB.com: Defensive Player of the Year – Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: Ellsbury has built his reputation as a base stealer, but his Gibby victory shows that fans have come to recognize his outstanding defensive ability as well. Boston’s pitching staff certainly enjoyed having the sure-handed speedster in center, as Ellsbury committed just two errors all season for a robust .994 fielding percentage. Thanks to his airtight glove work and highlight-reel ability, Ellsbury earned 34.6 percent of the vote, easily outdistancing the 15.3 percent garnered by Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

Since then, however, the emergence of new-age statistics made famous by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) have forced fans to reconsider their stance in regards to Ellsbury’s defensive prowess (or lack thereof). Comprehensive combinations of both mathematical and statistical analysis assigning ratings to players based on a seemingly endless list of elements and situations, Sabermetrics have dethroned traditional barometers of success such as batting average, earned run average, and most notably in Ellsbury’s case, fielding percentage. One in particular, UZR (ultimate zone rating), which is, to some extent, considered an accurate depiction of a fielder’s true value, implies that Ellsbury was actually the worst full-time center fielder in all of baseball in 2009. In other words, Jacoby’s defensive prowess that garnered league-wide recognition on MLB.com was actually a matter of defensive liability, according to SABR.

Whether you’re an advocate of Sabermetrics or not is beside the point; the fact of the matter is that statistics like UZR were relevant well before Ellsbury’s Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2009. Again, MLB.com’s TYIB Awards are entirely subject to fan voting, so if fans were impressed enough with Ellsbury in 2009 to ignore such statistics and reward him for his glove work, why now has it become trendy to dispel his defensive worth?

Defensive skill isn’t the only topic that Jacoby has had to, well, defend in the media. Ellsbury’s toughness has been called into question following the collision with Adrian Beltre’s knee on April 11^th that led to five broken ribs and a season spent on the disabled list.

The questioning of Ellsbury’s toughness is puzzling, to say the least. Prior to this season, the only other time that I can remember Jacoby being hurt was during June of 2008, his rookie year. No, he didn’t pull a muscle in his back while sneezing (Sammy Sosa), miss games due to sleeping awkwardly (J.D. Drew) or severely injure his forearm playing Guitar Hero (Joel Zumaya); instead, Ellsbury selflessly strained his wrist making a miraculous full-extension diving catch in a game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Puzzling may not be sufficiently descriptive, actually – at least not in Terry Francona’s mind. Amidst constant questioning of Ellsbury’s health and determination to return to the team from reporters and local radio show hosts, Terry decided to take offense in Jacoby’s defense.

"Have you ever had reason to believe that Jacoby Ellsbury was a soft player? No. And I think for anyone to ever say that … is very disrespectful."

He continued by indirectly addressing the conflicting prognosis surrounding Ellsbury’s ribs; "My instincts tell me the kid was probably a little more sore than he was letting on, probably for obvious reasons. He wanted to play. He was catching heat from a lot of you – all of you tough guys." Francona, referencing Ellsbury’s ill-fated decision to attempt a premature return from the disabled list in late May, justifiably placed a portion of the blame on the media’s berating of the young outfielder for applying a cautious approach to his rehabbing.

That cautious approach, in retrospect, was warranted.

Upon his return in May, Ellsbury would play just three games before revisiting the disabled list.

"I didn’t do this myself. I didn’t tweak something and sit out. I got hurt going all-out, one-hundred percent for a ball," Ellsbury explained. "I tried to come back when I knew I wasn’t one-hundred percent. That’s all I can say. Everybody knows how I play. Everyone knows I want to be out there. You can’t control everybody and what they think."

While team physicians initially proclaimed the injury to be nothing more than bruising, reportedly even refusing requests for an MRI, it was only after Ellsbury’s return to the disabled list that the team’s medical staff acknowledged the fifth broken rib suffered by Jacoby – even then taking the stance that it was sustained during yet another diving catch in a May 23^rd game, part of his short-lived return to the lineup, and not as a result of his initial collision with Beltre.

Ellsbury, of course, refuted the claim, leading to an all-too-public altercation with the team’s medical staff and further scrutiny directed at Jacoby.

Despite rushing back to the lineup in an attempt to appease the entirely off-base voice of the media's majority, Jacoby continues to receive negative attention for a season simply marred by unfortunate circumstance – ultimately leading to reported trade rumors revolving around the young outfielder.

On July 14^th, via Over the Monster, I explored the potential that the then pertinent talks with the Kansas City Royals regarding the availability of outfielder David DeJesus suggested the end of the Ellsbury era in Boston. According to sources at FOX Sports, the Red Sox first made contact with the Royals in early July, around the time that the rift between Ellsbury and team physicians was at its peak, and left the meeting with a mutual interest in reigniting conversations – some indications even implied the break in talks was used by the Royals organization to actively sift through the Red Sox’s minor league ranks in search of potential trade candidates.

Although the discussions with Kansas City produced nothing substantial, after all, Ellsbury is still a member of the Red Sox, unanswered speculation lingers as to why -- when it’s so simple to dispel nearly all negativity aimed at Ellsbury this season using simple unbiased rationale and logic – is the frustrated young star still being undermined and undervalued?

For the sake of foreshadowing, it’s worth noting that Jacoby Ellsbury is arbitration eligible for the first time in his career following the 2010 season; more on that later.

But first, we shift focus to manager Terry Francona, who has spent so much time addressing those critical of his aforementioned center fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury, that he’s allocated such little time to standing up for himself. Or, perhaps he’s just used to the constant barrage of scrutiny that accompanies being a major league manager, especially one in Boston.

The most reoccurring aspersion associated with the Red Sox manager is the nickname Terry "Francoma," seemingly meant to imply that he is less-than-swift with his in-game decision making. Particularly in regards to managing and monitoring his starting pitchers late in games, which is assuredly the easiest way to get on Red Sox Nation’s bad side since Grady Little’s 2003 travesty against New York in the deciding game of the American League Championship Series.

Unfortunately, the man now only occasionally referred to lovingly as "Tito," has probably heard "Francoma" more times this season than his actual name, much less "Tito." Now, that unremarkably creative nickname [Francoma] was conceived a number of seasons prior to 2010. However, not only has it grown increasingly frequent this year, its done so undeservedly, all things considered.

Aside from the obvious argument that Tito led the Red Sox to their first World Series win in nearly ninety seasons in 2004 -- back when being in contention for a championship was riveting, not a right – there are a number of other aspects routinely overlooked by this year’s Tito-naysayers.

Most notably, in relation to the popular belief most often instigating those "Francoma" remarks, is that Terry cannot seem to grasp the notion that it’s time to abandon his starting pitcher in favor of the bullpen. What’s apparently lost in translation, however, is the stark contrast in effectiveness of this season’s relief corps as opposed to last. It seems almost too simple, theoretically, to offer that as an excuse. But the fact of the matter is, in most instances it’s true.

Entering the season, contrary to popular belief, the Red Sox most glaring weakness was the bullpen and not the offense. Red Sox management did nothing to alleviate those concerns prior to the year, nor did they address them even during the season with problematic ‘pen on full display. Even once reliable relievers like Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima failed to produce in 2010, making it hard to blame Francona for his reluctance in handing the ball, and the game, over to the bullpen.

Also, it goes without saying that injuries in general were the ultimate downfall of this team. Over the Monster even featured a post entitled, "What we lost... what we 'gained'" [submitted by Rogue Nine] that used, you guessed it, new-age statistical measurements to roughly estimate that the Red Sox lost approximately eight games in the standings simply based on the subtraction of offensive players – like Jacoby Ellsbury – to injuries during the course of the season.

Would Francona even be answering questions regarding his "coma-like" behavior on the bench during games had it not been for a disastrous, injury-riddled season? Of course not.

Now, I’m certainly not taking the stance that Francona is always perfect with his in-game decision making. After all, you don’t get a nickname like "Francoma" without dropping the ball at least a few times. However, there isn’t a single manager in all of baseball who hasn’t done the same on occasion.

In fact, in Michael Holley's book, Red Sox Rule: Terry Francona and Boston’s Rise to Dominance, Holley points out that during Boston’s search for Grady Little’s successor post-2003, Theo Epstein and John Henry specifically targeted candidates who were more apt to handle selfish, larger-than-life player personalities with a diminished, yet still prominent, emphasis on the actual in-game aspect of the job requirements.

After a written test and game simulation, Francona was hired.

In other words, starting from the day that Terry Francona accepted the job, the Red Sox were aware of what they were hiring – a guy who had mediocre success in his previous position with the Philadelphia Phillies, but also a guy who they knew could handle the likes of Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. That’s what Francona does best, and it has worked well to this point. People tend to forget that managing the Boston Red Sox is unlike almost any other managerial job in baseball. There needn’t be an enormous emphasis on in-game management because, quite honestly, Boston’s lineup is typically filled by veterans and All-Stars, not developing talents and rookies like you’d find in Florida, Pittsburgh or even Tampa Bay – the players know what to do, it’s merely a matter of keeping them focused on that.

Daniel Drezner echoed Holley’s sentiments in an article written in 2008. In it, he states that the three most tumultuous tasks required of a Boston Red Sox manager are keeping the players on the same page, handling the media and never panicking during the season; all of which Francona excels at regularly. Drezner even goes as far as saying that Francona is underrated as a manager, pointing out that he’s never won a Manager of the Year Award despite the miracle season of 2004, a playoff birth in 2005 while guiding a team lacking any true top-tier starting pitchers or an established closer, and a 2007 team that finished with the best record in baseball en route to a World Series title. Even more insane is the fact that in all the previously mentioned seasons, Francona never once received a single first-place vote in the Manager of the Year balloting.

And yes, when the Society for American Baseball Research inevitably conceives a mathematical equation depicting success in relation to the timeliness of a manager’s removal of his starting pitchers, Terry Francona may very well be towards the bottom of the league, but that doesn’t mean that he’s to blame every time. More importantly, it wouldn’t justify denying Tito the benefit of the doubt in most cases – I think he’s earned that much.

Yet, here Francona is, two World Series titles later, still being disregarded by not only media-types but his own fans on occasion as well.

Here Jacoby Ellsbury is, similarly, watching the finale of a disappointing season that saw him, ironically enough, be ostracized for fighting so hard to be a part of it.

And finally, here both Francona and Ellsbury are, interestingly enough, sharing a common characteristic: Reason to believe that the 2011 season will be a deciding factor in their futures at Fenway, and one that doesn’t exactly project positively in either case.

As I stated earlier, Jacoby Ellsbury will enter 2011 arbitration eligible for the first time in his young career. Arbitration processes are painstaking enough as it is, but Ellsbury’s potentially projects to be on a whole different level. After a breakthrough season in 2009, Ellsbury contributed very little to the team in 2010, but as he will contest, it is the Red Sox themselves who are at fault for that – something that won’t be agreeable by both parties. Given the nature of Ellsbury’s relationship with certain areas of the team already, one would think that the team would have approached Jacoby will an extension offer at some point early in the season or even before it to avoid a potential arbitration hearing. Now, with a hearing almost inevitable, it’s hard to imagine the two coming out of the process with an improved opinion of one another – which also makes it nearly impossible to imagine the Red Sox coming to terms with Ellsbury on an extension at all.

With trade rumors already beginning as early as this past July, does that set the table for the off-season departure of Ellsbury? If so, how did it get to this point? Who is really to blame?

Francona enters 2011 under the final year of his contract; it remains to be seen where the Red Sox stand in terms of their interest in extending Terry’s deal. One thing is for certain, following an incredibly disappointing season, will there be enough mutual interest from both parties to work out an extension?

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a Red Sox fan who doesn’t love Tito, but after a season in which they cried "Francoma" even more regularly than years past, will they still be adverse to seeing him go? Will he even want to stay?

Like Ellsbury’s situation, it’s almost inconceivable to think that someone so beloved in Boston such a short time ago could be so easily let go; even more so if the fans are truly on board with it.

Then again, maybe the correlation between the change in public opinion and the contractual states of both is more than just coincidental; perhaps there is a method behind the madness, so to speak.

Theo Epstein will tell you first-hand, sometimes there are situations behind the scenes that the general public isn’t necessarily privy to, and often times it’s for the better. After all, it wasn’t long ago that Epstein himself experienced the ugly side of professional sports during contract negotiations with the very same management currently heading the Boston Red Sox.

In fact, Epstein’s situation wasn’t the first to publicly expose the sometimes ugly inner workings of the Red Sox’s front office, and as we’ll explore in part two of this submission, it may not be the last.

*Be sure to revisit Over the Monster next week (September 22nd) for Part 2, which will take a deeper look into the possibility that public opinion of Jacoby Ellsbury and Terry Francona is perhaps being directly influenced by a third party. The Boston Globe's Tony Massarotti will even offer some of his opinions on the matter.

Rays Suffocate Lifeless Red Sox in 14-5 Rout

Logan Lietz — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 09:01:47 -0000

For those of you still with us, I painstakingly offer you a recap of last night's contest -- and I use the term contest in the very loosest of ways.

Daisuke Matsuzaka eliminated any playoff hopes for the Red Sox that may have lingered following a dominant win in game one of this series against the wild card leading Rays. Before Tuesday night's blowout, Boston still had a chance to cut the Rays' lead to 4 1/2 games if they could finish off the three-game sweep. Now, well, how 'bout those Patriots?

Things didn't appear so bleak to begin the game as the Red Sox grinded out a pair of first-inning runs off Rays' starter David Price to claim an early 2-0 advantage.

Unfortunately, Major League Baseball games do not last just one inning, and for the final eight that followed the first, the Red Sox didn't fair quite as well.

The contrast in each team's starting pitching was the deciding factor in this one.

Tampa's Price finished off six innings of two-hit baseball, allowing just one earned run and solidifying his strong case for the American League's Cy Young Award as he improved to 17-6 with the win.

Daisuke on the other hand was awful enough to evoke a post-game apology through interpreter Masa Hoshino: "I knew very well that this was a critical game as far as our chances of advancing to the playoffs, so to allow what happened to happen so early in the game, I can really only apologize to my teammates and my fans."

4 2/3 innings, eight earned runs on eight hits and four free passes?

Well, at least he's sorry.

Besides, the rest of the Red Sox staff didn't exactly come in the game and clean up after Matsuzaka's mess. Dustin Richardson entered upon Daisuke's exit initially, somehow surrendering three earned runs and making an error without recording a single out. Then came Robert Manuel who was equally unimpressive. While Manuel did manage to get through 1 1/3 innings -- or 1 1/3 more than Richardson before him -- he still served up almost as many home runs [3] as outs he recorded [4].

By the time the four-inning barrage of fourteen unanswered runs was finally haulted by Michael Bowden's silent seventh inning of relief, the damage had been done -- even Rays fans were bored with the game at this point.

Even a three-run eighth inning from the Boston bats wasn't nearly enough to make the final of this one at all respectable.

Bright spots? Umm. Well, one of our guys, Victor Martinez, had a multi-hit game (2-2, 2 RBI)! Oh, and Darnell McDonald recorded his ninth home run and stolen base of the season! And hey, most importantly, nobody got hurt!

Really, that's about all that needs to be spoken about this game.

14-5. 77-62. 7 1/2 games back in the wild card.

The fat lady is now taking requests; submit yours via the comments section. But please, I'll thank you to refrain from requesting any Neil Diamond, as tempting as it may be.

Red Sox Treading Waters of American League

Logan Lietz — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 13:24:09 -0000

The Red Sox’s playoff hopes aren’t dead. No, they’re more along the lines of a comatose patient being sustained by nothing more than the veritable plug. And its immediate family members -- Theo Epstein, John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino -- appear resigned to the fate of a 2010 season sans post.

By entering the year offering predisposed, backhanded excuses laced with optimism and overshadowed by the off-season acquisition of John Lackey, the front office’s decision to remain relatively idle at this season’s trade deadline merely reaffirmed ownership’s stance that this, 2010, just wasn’t meant to be the Red Sox’s year.

That’s not to say that the organization came into the year without competitive intentions. And again, to do a bit of reaffirming of my own, Boston’s playoff chances don’t dwell six feet deep quite yet.

However, one glance at the American League standings makes it difficult to imagine the Sox sneaking their way into the postseason; even more so without the starting right side of their infield -- Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis -- who have been shut down for at least the remainder of the regular season. Entering play Wednesday, the Red Sox will be six games back of both the division and wild card leads.

And yet, even amidst a year paralyzed by injuries to such an extent not seen in Boston since 2006 -- which, not coincidentally was the last time the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs -- there may be more retrospective reasons than one would think to look back fondly on this season...yes, even sans post.

Staying on the topic of retrospective reminiscence, Tuesday night’s slate of MLB games seemed so indicative of the Red Sox’s season to this point.

Coming off three straight wins, the Sox were set to continue their home stand with Josh Beckett slated to start opposite one of the worst offenses in the league, the Seattle Mariners. Beckett, who has struggled as of late, is arguably the most important piece of the team’s still-lingering playoff lives. A home start against Seattle could have proved just what the doctor recommended in order for Beckett to regain form and continue Boston’s winning ways.

Instead, the rain came and postponed the game, forcing the team into a toilsome double-header tomorrow before they travel to dreaded Tropicana Field to tackle the first-place Rays. On top of that, rendered motionless in the standings by way of mother nature, Boston was forced to watch the backs of both New York and Tampa Bay shrink further in the distance of the playoff race as each team pounded out double-digit runs for a pair of impressive road wins.

Like injuries before it, the uncontrollable element of weather hindered the Red Sox’s ability to tread water in the tumultuous American League East.

…the 2010 Boston Red Sox treading water…

Unfortunately, that’s the image that ‘Red Sox Nation’ will subconsciously revert to when remembering this season.

But really, should those necessarily be negative sentiments simply by default? I mean, all occurrences considered, would it be a reach to believe that even having air in the proverbial lungs of the Red Sox at this point is cause for some level of celebration? Couldn’t the water that Boston is treading be half full, not half empty?

Alright, that last one may have been a slight stretch.

Nonetheless, my point remains intact. In a year originally deemed as a bridge to subsequent seasons, a roster glued together by previously unknowns and resurgent once-weres has managed to stay competitive and, at the very least, keep the club in playoff discussions.

Even six games back in late August, this team is still entertaining and worth watching on a nightly basis. A lot of that has to do with those aforementioned unknowns and once-weres that Terry Francona sprinkles amongst the lineup’s regulars each game.

Headlining the previously unknowns are players like Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, and to a lesser extent, Daniel Bard.

Watching him play this season, you might be surprised to find out that Darnell "Old" McDonald will be turning thirty-two years of age in November. You may also be shocked to find out that, prior to joining the Red Sox this season, McDonald had played in just sixty-eight major league games. However, thanks to Adrian Beltre’s mule-like leg strength and selective peripheral vision, Boston’s outfield depth grew thin enough to afford Darnell an April call-up. In his Red Sox debut against Texas, McDonald pinch-hit for Josh Reddick in the eighth inning of a game Boston trailed by two. His first at-bat with Boston resulted in a game-tying two-run home run. If that wasn’t enough, McDonald again came to the plate one inning later and delivered a walk-off RBI-single, ending the team’s five-game losing streak and immediately immersing the 31-year-old amongst the Fenway favorites. Darnell would finish his first month with his new team batting .308. To date, McDonald is hitting .271 with 8 home runs and 30 RBI in 255 at-bats.

Like McDonald, outfielder Daniel Nava took a longer-than-usual route to the major leagues. However, the 27-year-old got his first taste of the MLB this season for the Red Sox, and believe it or not, Nava’s first at-bat with Boston was even more incredible than McDonald’s. On June 12^th, Nava hit a grand slam home run on his first big league swing against the Philadelphia Phillies. In 101 total at-bats, Nava has hit .277, with twelve of his twenty-eight hits going for extra bases.

Another outfielder, Ryan Kalish, saw some unexpected playing time this season with the major league club. A ninth round selection in the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, the 22-year-old shot through minor league system and made an immediate impact during his July 31^st debut against the Detroit Tigers. During Boston’s 5-4 victory over the visiting Tigers, Kalish went 2-4 with an RBI and a run scored. His first home run would also be a memorable one, coming in a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium against the rival Yankees. Kalish has struggled of late, going 1-17 in his last six games and dropping his average from .300 to .239, but there’s no denying the impact that the young outfielder has made in his short time with the Red Sox.

Daniel Bard didn’t truly enter the season as an unknown, at least in the eyes of Red Sox fans, but by now Bard has introduced himself to the world of Major League Baseball on a much larger scale. With current closer Jonathan Papelbon’s exit from Boston seemingly inevitable, Bard has emerged as a more-than-viable option as his replacement. In 56 games, the Sox’s primary set-up man has tallied a league-high 27 holds, 3 saves, a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.87 ERA to go along with an astounding 9.36 K/9.

As for the once-weres, there are certainly plenty of candidates to choose from.

David Ortiz again silenced early-season doubters, myself included, by leading the team with 27 home runs -- 10 in the month of May alone. Adrian Beltre’s resurgence as one of the best hitters in the American League (.325, 23 HR, 86 RBI) has been a main reason behind Boston’s surprisingly potent offensive attack. Even Jed Lowrie has reemerged as a middle-infield option for the Sox, returning from the land of forgotten to hit .299 and get on base at a .413 clip in his 23 games so far in 2010.

However, the most notable, by a wide margin, has been pitcher Clay Buchholz. After throwing a no-hitter in his second major league start, Buchholz is finally completing the type of season that Red Sox fans dreamed could happen but started to doubt whether it actually would. Through twenty-two starts in 2010, Clay has emerged as a potential Cy Young candidate, winning fifteen games (2^nd in AL) and posting an American League-best 2.26 ERA. In the absence of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka for a good portion of the regular season, Buchholz anchored the rotation. Opponents are batting just .224 off the right-hander, his fifteen quality starts are tied for second on the team and his 1.20 WHIP is just 0.02 points behind Jon Lester for best among the starting staff. Clay Buchholz’s season has been arguably the most incredible storyline of the 2010 season and his pursuit of twenty wins may be the most compelling from here on out.

The season hasn’t been without its thrilling moments and incredible single-game feats, either. Personally, there are a few that immediately come to mind.

On April 4^th -- Major League Baseball’s opening night -- the Red Sox welcomed the defending World Series champion New York Yankees. Despite trailing 5-1 entering the bottom half of the fifth inning, the Red Sox never gave up, eventually scoring eight runs in innings five through eight and winning the nationally televised game 9-7. Even after going on to lose the next two games, and the opening series, to New York, the statement Boston made in game one was enough to salvage some positive feelings heading into the remaining 159. And besides, nobody wants to lose on opening day.

On May 22^nd, Daisuke Matsuzaka toed the rubber against the Phillies coming off a start in which he allowed seven earned runs without making it through the fifth inning in a loss to the Yankees. With an earned run average approaching eight, nobody could have predicted the type of start Daisuke would have. Entering the eighth inning, Matsuzaka had surrendered zero hits and was just six outs from no-hitting one of the most powerful National League lineups at their own (hitter friendly) ballpark. After Raul Ibanez walked to start the inning, Carlos Ruiz followed by lining a ball hard to third, only to have it dramatically snagged and turned into a double play as Ibanez was picked off first base. At that point it seemed Daisuke was destined for a historic performance. Instead, the very next batter singled and ended the no-hit bid. Daisuke would finish the eighth inning before handing the ball to Bard who completed the one-hit shutout. His final line: 8 IP, 1 H, 4 BB, 5 K. For some reason, it was oddly exciting watching someone as inconsistent with location as Matsuzaka typically is chasing a no-hitter.

However, the most memorable individual performance came from Dustin Pedroia on June 24^th. In the final game of a three-game series in Colorado, the Rockies jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the first inning and threatened to sweep the Red Sox after winning the series’ first two meetings. Pedroia, however, had other plans for the evening. After doubling in his first at-bat only to be stranded at second base, Pedroia decided to get the Red Sox on the board himself in the fourth, leading off the frame with a 396 ft. home run to left field. In the fifth with the Red Sox leading 4-2, Pedroia led off by drawing a walk and would eventually come around to score on a mammoth Adrian Beltre home run (421 feet), giving Boston a 6-2 advantage. In the sixth, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez combined to give up seven hits, six runs, and more importantly the lead, as the Rockies jumped ahead 8-6. Boston would regain the lead in the seventh, following four hits -- including a single by Pedroia -- and three runs. With the Sox still leading 9-8 in the eighth, Pedroia took it upon himself to add some insurance, belting a two-run home run to left off reliever Rafael Betancourt. After Papelbon relieved Bard in the ninth, the closer imploded for the second straight night, allowing two runs on three hits sending the game into extra innings. Thankfully for Boston, Dustin Pedroia would get another at-bat after Scutaro reached on an infield single. Facing closer Huston Street -- the fifth different pitcher he had seen in his six at-bats -- Pedroia clubbed his third home run of the night to put his team up for good, 13-11. Pedroia’s final line: 5-5, BB, 2B, 3 HR, 4 R, 5 RBI. In a marathon that lasted nearly five hours (4 hr 48 min), one can’t help but think what could have been had Franklin Morales not walked Pedroia -- who was a triple short of the cycle -- in the fifth.

Individual achievements and accolades aside, the fact remains that even without a trip to the postseason, 2010 should be reviewed in a positive manner by fans rather than a disappointed one.

In the world of baseball’s top-dollar teams -- whose payrolls dwarf even those considered middle-of-the-road spenders -- bridge years are the rich man’s equivalent to a rebuilding period.

Keep in mind, the Red Sox are tied with the Minnesota Twins for the third-best record in the American League. Take away the divisional format and all of the sudden Boston is projected postseason participants. Even in the sport’s toughest division, Boston is eighteen games above .500, and by all accounts still has an outside shot at making the playoffs as it is.

Teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles, to name a few, have been rebuilding for years. The difference being that they do so annually at the bottom of the standings and are generally at least six games out of the playoff race after the season’s first month.

And don’t forget a team like the Chicago Cubs. Just behind the Red Sox on the list of highest opening day payrolls in 2010 was the Cubs, coming in at number three. Where are they entering play Wednesday? Try twenty-one games below .500, eighteen games back in the National League wild card race and without the services of both manager Lou Piniella [retired] and All-Star Derek Lee [traded].

All of the sudden Boston’s ‘bridge year’ -- one in which they are 72-54 and still alive in the playoff race nearing the end of August -- doesn’t seem so grim. Sure, injuries knocked them off the bridge, forcing the Sox to tread the waters of the American League playoff race without Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis, just remember what it took to even be considered in playoff talks at this point in the season.

...the 2010 Boston Red Sox treading water...

Now, all things considered, that picture seems quite admirable actually.

The Contractual State of the Starting Rotation

Logan Lietz — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 14:46:29 -0000

Entering 2010, the Boston Red Sox’s starting rotation boasted six World Series rings, five All-Star game appearances, both an American League Championship and World Series Most Valuable Player award and two no-hitters. Better yet, two of those starting five came into the early parts of the season having just inked fresh, multiple year contracts.

An impressive mixture of youth and experience -- almost all contractually locked-up for what is considered in the world of professional sports as long-term -- led many to believe that Boston would feature one of the MLB’s best starting rotations not only in 2010, but for the next few years as well.

It’s hard to find anything negative to say on the topic of having Jon Lester guaranteed in a Red Sox uniform through at least 2013, that’s for certain. However, that’s where the acclaim stops, or at least that of the unanimous nature.

With such an accolade-laden group commanding rotation spots for multiple seasons beyond 2010, would it be blasphemous to consider that the organization is actually worse off now than before they signed last off-season’s most coveted free agent pitcher, John Lackey, and extended the contract of Josh Beckett who, like Lackey, had won the deciding game of a World Series before he had reached the age of 25?

First, let’s take a look at the contractual statuses of the team’s ideal starting rotation at this particular point in time.

The off-season signing of John Lackey conjured as much skepticism as it did excitement in Boston. With a void to fill in the lineup due to the departure of Jason Bay, a power-hitting outfielder was clearly, according to majority opinion, the best way for the Red Sox to allocate their off-season spending allotment. Instead, they awarded the 31-year-old pitcher a five-year contract worth $86 million (including the $3.5 million signing bonus). During the duration of the deal, Lackey stands to make $18.7 million in 2010, followed by $15.25 in each of the remaining four years, with the club holding a conditional option for 2015 at the league’s minimum salary in the event that he would miss a significant amount of time as a result of a pre-existing elbow injury.

General Manager Theo Epstein made good on his promise to do everything in his power to re-sign Josh Beckett following the acquisition of Lackey; in early April the team extended Beckett’s contract through 2014. The four-year deal is worth a total of $68 million; $15.75 each season on top of a $5 million signing bonus.

After posting a high-bid of $51,111,111 in 2006 merely for the rights to a thirty-day negotiation window with Seibu Lions’ pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox managed to sign the international free agent to a six-year deal through 2012 worth $52 million. Matsuzaka, after making $6 million in 2007 and $8 million both this season and last, is promised $10 million in each of his contract’s final two seasons [2011-12] before becoming a free agent.

The lone left-hander of the group, Jon Lester extended his contract with the Boston Red Sox in March of 2009. The five-year contract worth $30 million total awards Lester $3.75 million this season, followed by sums of $5.75, $7.625 and $11.625 each of the next three. The Red Sox also hold a $13 million club option for 2014 (the option is void in the event that Lester finishes either first or second in Cy Young voting anytime from 2009-13 and is subsequently traded).

Lastly, but perhaps most intriguing, is pitcher Clay Buchholz. Buchholz makes just $443,000 here in 2010, but is arbitration-eligible for the first time following the season. Despite being a model of inconsistency his initial few full seasons in Boston, Clay has been arguably the team’s most reliable pitcher this season en route to a team-best fourteen wins and an American League-best 2.36 ERA through his first twenty-one starts. Though he is currently the only member of the rotation who isn’t guaranteed at least two more seasons in Boston, contractually speaking, the organization’s reluctancy to part with Buchholz during trade negotiations, even before his recent on-field maturation, means that it’s just a matter of time before he, too, is signed to a long-term deal.

Clearly, the Red Sox value starting pitching, and with good reason. After all, as the old adage goes, ‘pitching wins championships,’ and in Boston’s case, it had better.

The Red Sox were owners of the second highest opening day payroll in Major League Baseball this season -- only behind the Yankees -- at $162,447,333. Of those who comprise the ten highest 2010 payrolls, Boston’s 33.34% increase from where it stood the season prior ($121,745,999; 4^thin MLB) is only surpassed by that of the Minnesota Twins, who experienced a 49.4% increase from 2009.

That same value placed on starting pitching is the driving force behind such a substantial increase in payroll. For instance, the combined 2010 salaries of those five pitchers is $43,326,333, which equates to 26.67% of the team’s entire payroll.

Ironically, it’s been Buchholz and Lester -- owners of the group’s two lowest salaries -- that have offered the most return this season. Lester’s 2.80 ERA and 13 wins are second on the team only to Buchholz’s 2.36 ERA and 14 victories. Both appeared in their first All-Star games in 2010 and are amongst the league’s top-five in ERA. With neither turning the age of twenty-seven until Lester does so in January, the future bodes well in Boston as long as these two are around.

Conversely, the rotation’s two most disappointing performers thus far have been the two oldest and highest-paid, Josh Beckett and John Lackey.

Beckett spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list this season, starting just thirteen games for the Red Sox and going 3-2 with a 6.51 ERA. Opponents are hitting .294 off of Beckett and he’s allowed 91 hits in 76 innings -- compare that to Buchholz, who has surrendered just eighteen more hits in 133.3 innings. Beckett has also amassed career-worst marks in ERA+ [67], WHIP [1.539] and H/9 [10.8].

Lackey, the Red Sox’s prized off-season acquisition, hasn’t quite delivered as Boston had hoped in the first of his five-year deal. While he’s proved durable, starting 24 games and alleviating concerns over any lingering effects of his previous elbow injury, it’s his effectiveness in those starts that has left something to be desired. The 10-7 record currently held by Lackey is hardly indicative of how he’s pitched. His 4.54 ERA is the highest it’s been since 2004 and his SO/9 [5.8] and ERA+ [96] are the lowest since that same year. He’s also set career-worst marks in WHIP [1.519], H/9 [10.2] and SO/BB [1.68]. Plus, in his twelve starts at Fenway Park this season, a place he figures to pitch at a lot in the next few years, opponents are hitting .299 off him. Not exactly what you’d expect from your highest paid starter, especially after just signing him to a five-year deal worth a large sum of money.

With both Lackey and Beckett contractually locked-up through 2014 at a collective $31 million per season, and judging by this season, the future may all of the sudden appear a bit more grim despite the presence of both Lester and Buchholz.

So, with Lackey’s signing initially leading many to believe that management wouldn’t opt to bring Beckett back to Boston following 2010, the question is, why did they?

Well for one, there doesn’t figure to be a surplus of available marquee starting pitchers in 2011. By securing both Lackey and Beckett in what was originally assumed to be a defense and pitching oriented ‘bridge year’ anyway, the organization seemingly had intentions of acquiring what they believed to be an imposing 1-2 punch at the front end of the rotation while the market offered it, rather than waiting and potentially having to deal the prospects that they were attempting to ‘bridge’ to in the first place in search of a quick fix down the road. Besides, if the organization was under the impression that starting pitching help internally was a few years from fruition, and rightfully so, then it was hard to argue against a veritable bridge consisting of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey to help get them there.

Not to mention, at the time that Beckett’s deal was extended, Buchholz had yet to truly establish himself as a reliable option that they could count on. Had they known that Clay would carry-over the success he had towards the end of last season and pitch as well as he has to this point in 2010, they may have thought twice about reconfiguring Beckett’s contract. Entering the season, the Red Sox assumedly believed they had three starters that they could rely on -- Beckett, Lackey and Lester -- had they known they could complete that list with Buchholz’s name rather than Beckett's, it appears less likely that they’d have felt it necessary to designate so much money towards extending Josh. A front of the rotation in 2011 consisting of Lester, Lackey and Buchholz now looks just as appealing as one that includes a 30-year-old Beckett when you consider the remarkably cheaper price tag accompanying it; that’s an additional $15.75 million dollars that the Red Sox could have used each of the next four seasons on other areas of need -- perhaps a some bullpen help or an extension of Clay Buchholz’s contract?

However, here Boston stands, owing over $30 million per season over the next four years to a pair of thirty-something pitchers who are becoming increasingly regarded as undependable even before they've had a chance to spend their signing bonuses.

All that without even a mention of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s return on investment, simply because it’s almost too frustrating to touch on and would require an entire article itself to address all the issues.

And yet, as mentioned earlier, the rotation isn’t without its bright spots. Jon Lester has emerged as one of the most dominating left-handers in the league, and thanks to Buchholz’s expedited development, Theo Epstein now appears to have been correct in sticking with the once struggling young pitcher, even through temptations like Roy Halladay and Adrian Gonzalez.

That being said, what can the Red Sox ultimately expect from their core of starting pitchers for the next few seasons, or the duration of their current deals?

The success and production of both Beckett and Matsuzaka remain heavily contingent on health.

Daisuke has flashed the ability to be a dominant starter but has yet to put it together consistently. This season, however, was the first in which Matsuzaka really showed a determination to get back to the level of play that made him a legend in Japan. He came into the spring with a visably altered attitude and if he can stave off the injury bug for the entirety of 2011, we may finally see him morph into the player we paid so handsomely merely to speak with -- the operative word there being, if.

There’s no questioning Josh Beckett’s drive and desire to compete at the highest level. Unfortunately, durability and health aren’t exactly things you can have complete control over. Whether it be blisters or back spasms, Beckett had seen his fair share of time on the disabled list due to injuries more typical of your average 30-year-old beer league softball player than those of a professional athlete. When he’s healthy, however, his prowess is well-documented. The only other time he failed to start at least thirty games for Boston in a single season, he came back the following year and won nineteen games. The poor results from both an individual and team standpoint this season should give Beckett some extra motivation in 2011. However, beyond that, one has to question how each additional year with effect his terrible luck with nagging, minor injuries. In his first five seasons with Boston, including 2010, Beckett has turned in just two quality seasons from an overall standpoint. As his age increases, so does the feeling that we may be lucky to get even another two good seasons out of his new four-year deal; at almost $16 million a season, will it end up being worth it?

With Lackey, it’s difficult to imagine him regaining his 2007 form that saw him go 19-9 with a league-best ERA [3.01] and ERA+ [150]. However, while he has never won more than fourteen games (aside from 2007) and only averaged 25.5 starts in the two seasons prior to joining Boston, the durability questions that ultimately led to the conditional club option in his deal with the Red Sox seem to have dissipated, and he’s back on track to being the pitcher that started thirty-three games in each season from 2003-07. Before coming to the Red Sox, Lackey had a string of five consecutive seasons with a sub-four ERA. What has saved him to some extent this season has been his ability to induce the ground ball with men on base, if he can continue to do that while getting back to his typical SO/BB ratios, Lackey could still potentially have some of his best seasons in a Red Sox uniform. The problem being, even his best seasons may not be able to justify the type of money that Boston invested in him.

As far as Lester and Buchholz go, it wouldn’t at all be a stretch to expect things to only get better from these two production-wise.

Lester has already cemented himself as a certified ace at the age of just twenty-six. Because he has been elected an All-Star, thrown a no-hitter and clinched a World Series title in such a short period of time, people forget that he is still developing and learning how to pitch at the major league level. His mechanics and frame make it hard to imagine injury concerns creeping up on him at any point and his immunity to prolonged struggles makes him one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. And again, he’s just twenty-six years of age.

Buchholz is an interesting case. Having hardly pitched one full season at a consistently high level, he’s still already being regarded as one of the league’s better pitchers. With an arsenal of pitches as devastating as the one he was blessed with, it was simply a matter of time before the talents outweighed whatever had plagued him to this point. Despite taking the scenic route, it appears Buchholz is finally at the stage Lester was just a couple seasons ago -- enjoying a breakout year and beginning to establish himself within the context of the league’s other great pitchers. It won’t be long before Boston locks Buchholz up long-term and fans can begin an annual "Lester or Buchholz for staff ace" debate.

Overall, the Red Sox seem to have effectively solidified their rotation for a good deal of years to come. However, that may not necessarily be entirely positive. With so much importance on starting pitching -- and such a large percentage of the team’s overall payroll invested in it -- it’s hard to feel good about something so heavily dependent on virtually uncontrollable factors; those of course mainly pertaining to health.

When healthy and productive, the Red Sox have arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. However, it’s a different story when not -- which, unfortunately seems to so often be the case.

Red Sox Win 3-1, Bounce Back Behind Commanding Lester

Logan Lietz — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 06:05:39 -0000

The Boston Red Sox -- more specifically, Jon Lester -- helped alleviate any residual pain lingering after a shocking loss against this very same Rangers squad the night prior.

Though it didn't start out in promising fashion, the Boston bats did just enough in the late innings to back what turned out to be a truly dominating performance from Lester, who, once again, made a convincing case for the title of "staff ace."

Pitching both under the weather (upset stomach) and at the mercy of it (102-degrees at game-time), Lester managed to work his way around four hits and an error through the first four innings while keeping Texas scoreless. Even more impressive, he did so while allowing the leadoff batter of the first four frames to reach base.

An throwing error by third baseman Adrian Beltre to begin the bottom of the first -- after the Sox were retired in order in the top half -- allowed Elvis Andrus to reach base in front of one of the more daunting 2-3-4 hitters in the American League. However, in a way indicative of his night overall, Jon Lester set down Young, Hamilton and Guerrero to eliminate any potential threat early on.

The Red Sox offense garnered their own threat the following frame when David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre led off the second with back-to-back singles. However, after a Ryan Kalish walk loaded the bases with just one out, Bill Hall took a called third strike before Eric Patterson flew out to strand all three runners, keeping the game scoreless.

Through innings 2-4, Lester scattered four hits, all singles, thanks in large part to a successful pick-off attempt of Andres Blanco and double-play ball off the bat of Michael Young -- both coming in the third inning -- as the Sox's starter matched zeros with the Rangers' Colby Lewis heading into the fifth.

Fortunately for Boston, the fifth is when they finally broke through offensively.

Kalish singled to open the frame in front of Hall and Patterson, who left the bases loaded earlier in the game. They lived up to their billing as the two again notched a strikeout and fly-out, only this time in reverse order, for the inning's first two outs. After Scutaro added a rare hit from the leadoff spot, advancing Kalish to third and setting up a two-out scoring chance, J.D. Drew made good on the opportunity by roping an RBI-single to right field, affording the Red Sox a 1-0 lead.

From there, until the ninth, Jon Lester made sure that his team's lack of offense on this particular night would be a moot point. Allowing just one more base-hit -- a one-out triple in the seventh by Nelson Cruz -- Lester finished off his eight innings of shutout work.

Thankfully, the offense, mindful of what typically happens when the bullpen enters the game with a small lead in the late innings recently, provided a couple insurance runs in their half of the ninth following Lester's exit. Even the ~~dynamic~~ 'traumatic duo' of Hall and Patterson chipped in with a pair of singles; they must have noticed Scott Atchison warming for Boston in preparation for Texas' final at-bats.

A depleted and miserable Sox bullpen trotted Atchison out to put the stamp on the 3-0 victory.

After retiring Michael Young for the 25th out of the game, Atchison decided to make things a tad more tense by serving up Josh Hamilton's 26th home run of the season to cut the lead to 3-1. And because it's no fun when the tying run is on deck as opposed to at the plate, Scotty allowed Guerrero to single bringing up the tying run, pinch-hitter Mitch Moreland with only one gone.

The beneficiary of Atchison's theatrics was reliever Felix Doubront, who entered the game to face Moreland.

However, Texas, in an almost insulting manner, gave Vlad the green light to take second base and eliminate the possibility of a game-ending double play. Victor Martinez took advantage of the faulty decision making, throwing out Guerrero before Doubront spun a 1-2 curveball in to Moreland who watched it drop in for strike three and, finally, the game's final out.

The win helped Boston avoid any further distance between themselves and the division's two frontrunners, New York and Tampa Bay, who both won Saturday.

Also:

-Jon Lester earned a well-deserved win. He is now 13-7 and has lowered his ERA down to 2.80.

-Despite hammering out double-digit hits again (10), the Red Sox lineup collectively left 21 runners on base.

-Felix Doubront earned his first career save.

-Victor Martinez (0-4, BB) was the only Boston batter without a base-hit. However, just Kalish (2-3, BB) and Hall (2-4) collected multiple hits.

Up next: Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-3, 4.09) and the Red Sox attempt to earn a statement-making series win of sorts as the Rangers counter with C.J. Wilson (10-5, 3.30) in a 3:05 PM ET get away day game at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

The Revealing Nature of Boston's Remaining Schedule

Logan Lietz — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 13:31:09 -0000

With a record of 65-49, the Boston Red Sox rank third in the entire American League in terms of wins. The problem being, that same total remains good enough for just the third-highest in their own division -- Major League Baseball’s toughest -- the East.

As of Wednesday morning, Boston finds themselves four and a half games off the Wild Card pace set by the slumping Tampa Bay Rays and five back of the Yankees’ division lead. Yet, in spite of that, the Red Sox are still widely considered a potential playoff participant and, similarly to the rest of the baseball world, they aren’t giving up on themselves just yet.

And why should they?

After all, Boston still boasts one of the league’s top -- albeit constantly augmented -- offenses, as well as an increasingly healthy and imposing roster. Both have been on display recently, particularly in Tuesday night's victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, as recent disabled list returnees Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell keyed the club’s reentry into the realm of consecutive road wins.

But will Boston’s resilience and resolve be enough to conquer those standing between them and October baseball or will the 2010 Red Sox finally succumb to a season marred by injury depletion, less than stellar luck and what projects to be an extremely tumultuous remaining schedule?

There is a plethora of reasoning to justify optimistic rationalization from ‘Red Sox Nation’ regarding the outlook for the season’s second half -- compounding health being the most notable.

Aside from Lowell and Lowrie’s resounding contributions last night, Wednesday marks one week since the reactivation of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury who, just now, appears to be hitting his stride; that should bode well for a lineup which remains without second baseman Dustin Pedroia at this moment in time.

Just how long that moment will be, fortunately, is looking less grim each and every day. Pedroia, whose recovery from a foot injury had been relatively lethargic until recently, has willed his return date from a tentative status to what is believed to be set at sometime within the next week, give or take. At this point, according to reports, he is now without discomfort when running at full tilt and will undergo a few more evaluations before being unleashed at Pawtucket to begin a rehab assignment this Saturday.

However, the general outlook isn’t without its negatives either.

Like Kevin Youkilis, who is lost to the disabled list for the remainder of the year, centerfielder Mike Cameron has again been designated for a trip to the DL -- a place that he is all-too-familiar with this season. And while fellow outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and first-year sensation Ryan Kalish aid the alleviation of that dilemma, it’s growing increasingly unlikely that the Red Sox will ever experience a time in 2010 where they are remotely close to being considered universally healthy.

Will the aforementioned circumstances inevitably hinder the possibility of postseason inclusion for Boston? The answer to that may be influenced by pre-established conditions more so than those contingent on any singular pressing issue, such as the health of Dustin Pedroia.

Prospecting the final two months of the Red Sox’s season, as well as their playoff potential, can be done quite effectively using the veritable crystal ball that is the remaining regular season schedule. Similar to the topic of health, the Red Sox’s schedule for the season’s final two months conjures as much optimism as it does pessimism. And, as in most cases, perception is inevitably based on the beholder; it’s all about how you choose to look at it.

For instance, the Red Sox’s remaining opponents hold a combined winning percentage of just .514 entering play Wednesday, and against them Boston is six games above .500 at 37-31.

However, much of that winning record overall stems from the fact that against both the Blue Jays and Angels in particular, who account for eleven of the Red Sox’s final forty-eight games, Boston is 15-2. Meaning that, without including Chicago, who they have yet to face, the Red Sox own a winning record versus just two of the remaining eight teams that they've previously faced and are 22-29 against all those that don’t call Toronto or Anaheim -- or Los Angeles for that matter -- home.

In addition, twenty-two of the forty-eight games from here until the end of the regular season, or 46%, will come against teams that, if the regular season ended today, would qualify for the playoffs based on the current standings. Those teams would be the Yankees, Rangers and Rays, who the Red Sox are a combined 12-19 against. Not to mention over half of those twenty-two games -- twelve to be exact -- are against the Yankees and Rays in particular, who have handled Boston so far this season to a record of 15-9.

And yet, one can always find the positive aspect of things if one truly wants to. For instance, the Rays and Yankees -- the two teams Boston is presently chasing -- still have seven games remaining against one another. Regardless of those results, the Red Sox will be in great position to make up ground on the days that those two go head-to-head. If either team ends up dominating the remainder of that series, Boston stands to gain ground on whichever team does the faltering. In the event that they end up trading blows equally, so to speak, then the Red Sox are in control of their own fate and can make up ground on both simultaneously if they play well enough.

Similarly, the remaining twelve scheduled games against both the Rays and Yankees provide enough opportunities for Boston to inflict damage themselves rather than wait around and hope one team ultimately fades out of contention by their own accord. Consider this: The Red Sox currently trail the Rays by 4.5 games in the race for the fourth playoff spot in the American League. If Boston can win even four of their final six against Tampa Bay -- not a stretch by any means -- then they go from having to make up 4.5 games in the last 48 to merely needing to pick up 2.5 with 42 remaining, figuratively speaking.

Similarly to with the Tampa Bay and New York situation, Boston will play twelve of their remaining forty-eight games -- exactly one quarter’s worth -- against the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, who are a collectively awful 83-144 (.366).

The Orioles are an astounding thirty games behind the A.L. East leading Yankees and own baseball’s worst record, 39-74 (.345). Only the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates have allowed more runs than Baltimore’s mark of 605 and their -181 run differential isn’t any higher in relation to the rest of the league. Boston will play two separate three-game sets against the last place Orioles -- one at home and one in Baltimore.

Seattle has amassed baseball’s fewest runs scored to this point in the season with 369 (3.2/game) en route to a 44-70 record. Floundering at the bottom of what is arguably the American League’s most mediocre division and having recently relieved Don Wakamatsu of his managerial duties, the Mariners’ six games versus the Red Sox represents an opportunity for Boston to make up ground, or at the very least avoid losing any, in the A.L. East and their push for the playoffs.

With such a large fraction of the team’s final forty-eight games coming against such anemic opposition, one would think that the Red Sox are in prime position to close the gap between them and a spot in the playoff picture. However, that may not necessarily be the case if the past is any indication of the immediate future.

Again, perception is the key here.

To this point in the season Boston is just a combined 8-8 against that very same tandem of previously mentioned American League basement-dwellers [Seattle, Baltimore]; instead turning the few ‘should win’ series into ‘must wins’ if they hope to stay in contention.

If the Red Sox fail to take advantage of the fairer aspect of their remaining schedule -- just as they did through the season’s first half -- then they’ll have justified the organization’s decision to refrain from making any substantial deadline acquisitions in postseason preparation, and in turn, they’ll be watching the postseason theatrics unfold no differently than other teams such as Baltimore and Seattle -- from home.

Which provides an ample segue way to the next topic: The remaining home schedule.

Per usual, the friendly confines of Fenway Park have served the Red Sox well in 2010; Boston is 34-23 at home compared to a mark of 31-26 on the road. On the positive side of things, not only will Boston play twenty-one more games at home this season, they’ll do so against opponents that they have faired notably well against -- to the tune of a 31-20 record.

August 17-25^th could serve as the most crucial home stand of the season’s home stretch. In its nine games, the Red Sox welcome the Angels, Blue Jays and Mariners, respectively, for three games a piece. Against that particular trio, Boston holds a collective and impressive 17-4 record thus far in 2010.

However, just as games at Fenway have been friendly for the Sox, those away from it have been almost equally unforgiving.

Including Wednesday night’s game in Toronto, the Red Sox have a total of twenty-four road contests left to weather. Even more unfortunate, Boston holds just a 30-31 record against their remaining road foes.

While the current ten-game stretch away from Fenway Park may have appeared the most grueling of the 2010’s final two months coming in, it may very well be the season’s last road trip that determines whether or not the Red Sox will earn a trip to the playoffs.

September 24^th-30^th features a seven-game road stand against two of the American League’s top teams, the A.L. East leading Yankees and current Wild Card frontrunners, the Chicago White Sox.

While Boston has yet to play the White Sox, who are 33-21 at U.S. Cellular Field, they are just 5-7 against the Yankees, who are an American League-best 37-20 record at home. Making that particular stretch the greatest test that Boston will face this season and effectively setting the stage for, what may be, the concluding series of the season in its entirety -- a three-game finale at home versus New York.

The Red Sox, even at five games back in the toughest division of Major League Baseball’s toughest league, are by no means out of the playoff picture. For example, in the month of July, thanks in large part to a 12-13 record, Boston dropped a total of six games in the divisional standings. However, back from May 24^th-June 22^nd, in slightly less time than it took to drop them in July, the Red Sox managed to pick up six games in those very same American League East standings.

Once again, it’s all dependent on how you choose to see things.

However, one thing is for certain: As it goes for any of baseball’s perennial powerhouses, taking care of business at home or against weaker opponents is expected of you. After all, if you cannot consistently beat non-playoff caliber teams, it’s likely because you’re one yourself. Boston will have the luxury, if you will, of facing that challenge due to such a large and forgiving portion of their remaining games coming against some of the weakest competition featured in the American League.

And yet, winning a September series against a team in flux and without a true manager like the current Seattle Mariners is one thing, doing so on the road while facing a New York or Chicago team jockeying for valuable playoff position is what qualifies you as a contender.

In all likelihood, as Boston enters the final weeks of the season they’ll find that those circumstances are exactly what lie in front of them. So long as they stay afloat in the meantime, we’ll finally be shown whether this Red Sox club is destined to repeat the fate had by a similarly injury-plagued 2006 team or if they can somehow overcome and overtake those obstacles in their way.

Poll

In your opinion, does the Red Sox's remaining schedule evoke a sense of optimism or pessimism regarding the potential for postseason play?

I'm optimistic after getting a glimpse of the road ahead.

163 votes

Too many tough series towards the end. Bring on 2011.

81 votes

Hmm. We'll see how Pedroia progresses, among other things.

155 votes

399 votes | Poll has closed

Lowrie, Lowell Back Shaky Daisuke for 7-5 Win in Toronto

Logan Lietz — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:04:48 -0000

Despite a less than stellar performance from starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, who presumably felt a bit irregular coming into the game with an ERA beginning with the number three, the Red Sox managed to ride a late-inning burst offensively to finally pull ahead for good on a night when it seemed the Blue Jays would just never go away.

After Boston was retired in order to begin the top of the first by Jays’ starter Ricky Romero, Daisuke teased us all by striking out the side in succession to end the inning -- which was made ever more promising considering how well he had pitched in his start prior to this one. However, that’s just about where the quality starting pitching ended and the scoring started; for both teams.

On a night when the Red Sox would go on to record 7 extra-base hits out of their 11 total, fittingly, it was back-to-back doubles by David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre that got the scoring started in the top of the second frame. Up 1-0 with two outs and Beltre still on second, the Red Sox’s Mr. Double, Jed Lowrie (2-3, 2 2B, BB, 2 RBI, R), again recorded a two-bagger -- this one plating Beltre for the team’s second run.

After a Jacoby Ellsbury single drove Lowrie in, it was 3-0 in favor of Boston after one and a half. And with the way Daisuke had looked till that point, three runs almost seemed like a safe cushion.

However, the word ‘safe’ rarely applies to a game in which Matsuzaka starts; that is unless you’re in Vegas with all your money riding on the over.

After surrendering a home run to Adam Lind and a double to Lyle Overbay in inning number two, Red Sox fans breathed a collective sigh of relief when Toronto managed just a single run, cutting the lead to 3-1.

The third inning wasn’t quite as lucky.

Again, Daisuke served up a home run and a double in the frame, only this time he mixed things up a bit with a couple leadoff walks that would come back to haunt him as Toronto tied the game up at four.

Things settled down a bit for the next four frames with the teams just trading a pair of solo home runs; one by J.D. Drew to lead off the fifth and the other the 35^th of the year from Toronto slugger Jose Bautista (who apparently discovered Jack LaLanne’s secret to a stronger ‘you’ this past off-season) off of Boston reliever Felix Doubront.

The eighth, which started innocently enough, is when the Red Sox finally put away the Blue Jays.

Following an Ortiz strikeout and Beltre groundout, Mike Lowell launched a 0-1, two-out offering from Jays’ reliever Shawn Camp out of the park to put the Sox ahead for good.

Still with two gone in the eighth, Lowrie added an insurance run with his second RBI-double of the night to put Boston up 7-5, which is where the score would stay thanks to two decent innings of relief to close out the contest from Manny Delcarmen and closer Jonathan Papelbon, who earned his 29^th save of 2010 and second in as many nights.

With the Rays' win and the Yankees' loss on Tuesday, Boston is now 5 games off the pace in the division and remains 4.5 back of the Wild Card lead.

Other notables:

Bill Hall went 0-3 with a pair of strikeouts and three men left on base while playing left field and hitting seventh; Ryan Kalish would replace Hall in the eighth, notching a single and coming around to score on the Lowrie double. How long before we simply stop allowing Hall to start, much less enter, games?

Marco Scutaro was hitless in five at-bats out of the leadoff spot and is now just seven of his last forty-four (.159). Ellsbury on the other hand collected his third hit in the past two days and appears to be rounding into form. With Dustin Pedroia set to return within the next week or so, the top of the Red Sox’s lineup should be worth monitoring.

Up next: Today, August 11th @ Toronto 7:07 PM ET (C. Buchholz vs. S. Marcum)

Imported Goods: The Significance of Stolmy Pimentel

Logan Lietz — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:22:31 -0000

Current Red Sox pitching prospect Stolmy Pimentel may not be amidst his most aesthetically pleasing minor league season to date, statistically speaking, yet he remains widely regarded as one of Boston’s most promising developmental talents.

Pimentel’s arsenal is strikingly similar to that of former Red Sox prospect and current major league All-Star, Clay Buchholz. His four-seam fastball, which typically sits in the low-to-mid 90’s, acts as an ideal set-up pitch for his plus curveball and what is considered a truly advanced changeup relative to other pitchers in his age group. While his pitch selection mirrors Buchholz’s, his frame (6’3" - 190 lbs) projects more along the lines of Chicago Cubs’ pitcher Carlos Zambrano -- which isn’t necessarily negative.

Despite sporting a 6-8 record to go along with an ERA of 4.36 through 20 starts as a part of Boston’s Class A affiliate, the Salem Red Sox, in 2010, Pimentel’s promise hasn’t gone unnoticed. Not only was he named a SoxProspects.com Pre-Season All-Star for the second consecutive season earlier this year, the young right-hander also earned the opportunity to feature his repertoire on a national stage -- pitching in the 2010 MLB All-Star Futures Game.

Representing more than simply another potential-laden pitcher amongst a farm system that has produced the likes of Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, Jonathan Papelbon and Buchholz in just the past few years, Pimentel has the chance -- and more importantly, the skill set -- to establish himself as one of the most notable international signing successes in the Red Sox’s recent history.

As part of an organization known for being anything but timid in terms of allocating financial resources towards signing bonuses awarded to foreign-born prospects -- especially for those that hail from the Dominican Republic -- the $25,000 bonus that landed Pimentel in July of 2006 helped shield the then 17 year-old from any added pressures that accompany being a highly paid youngster in one of the most demanding franchises in Major League Baseball. It also didn’t hurt that the Red Sox spent a collective $1.1 million that very same month on two other Dominican born teenagers -- Engel Beltre and Oscar Tejada -- neither of whom have quite panned out as originally anticipated to this point.

"I went out and pitched, and they saw me when I was young. They were impressed that I was young and had speed, that I had a good fastball. That’s when they started to get interested in me. The Red Sox were the only team I practiced with."

Prior to the beginning of this season, Over the Monster introduced its inaugural 2010 Annual. In it, I wrote an article entitled, A Taxing Trend in International Signings, concerning the Red Sox’s inability to efficiently designate bonus dollars to international signings -- weighing the amount awarded to certain players with the relative return on investment. This is a trend exemplified by the signing, and subsequent developmental success, of Stolmy Pimentel.

It wasn’t until the early 2000’s that the front office began appointing a large sum of both human and monetary resources to scouting overseas. However, since then, the organization has dropped the veritable ball more often than not on signings like Sang-Hoon Lee (2000 - $1,050,000), Gary Galvez (2003 - $500,00), Luis Soto (2003 - $500,00), Michael Almanzar (2007 - $1,500,00) and the aforementioned Engel Beltre and Oscar Tejada (2003 - $575,000 / $525,000).

All of which amplifies frustrations when you consider that the greatest international acquisition to date -- Dominican shortstop Hanley Ramirez in 2000 -- was signed for a mere $20,000 (less than 2% of the initial cost accompanying fellow 2000 signing, Sang-Hoon Lee). In fact, you’d be hard-pressed to find another notable overseas signing that came with a price tag less than six-figures.

That being said, one could conceivably argue that Stolmy Pimentel has a significant chance to eventually be considered the Red Sox’s most noteworthy international signing that resulted from superior scouting as opposed to a superior bankroll -- and really, that’s not saying much upon further review of his competition.

From the beginning of 2000 to June of 2007, the Red Sox spent a total of $5,760,000 on the bonuses of twenty-three foreign-born signings [minus those acquired without a necessary signing bonus] for an average exceeding $250,000 per prospect. Of those twenty-three, just seven remain in the confines of the organization and only one has contributed to the major league club in the last few seasons -- that being Venezuelan pitcher Felix Doubront, who has appeared in three games for the Red Sox this season (1-2, 4.11 ERA).

So, just how likely is it that Stolmy Pimentel’s name at some point be likened to someone like Hanley Ramirez’s in terms of return on initial investment [signing bonus]? With still so much room for growth and necessary development, the answer to that question remains up in the air.

Pimentel is still raw at the age of twenty and assuming him to be savior of the international scouting department’s respect is probably premature. After all, he has yet to even pitch above the Class A level and the decrease in his winning percentage since the beginning of his career has only been paralleled by the increase in his ERA during that time -- which can only suggest that he’s regressing, right?

Not necessarily.

For one, in 2009 while pitching in low-A ball, his strikeout ratio (7.9 K/9) was almost as impressive as that of his walks (2.2 BB/9). Essentially what that can mean is that he threw an enormous amount of pitches in the strike zone -- which is ultimately the goal at that level -- in a league where developing hitters are eagerly swinging at almost everything. Not to mention that his BABIP [batting average on balls in play] was abnormally high at .350; which to me, means that Pimentel was partially a victim of circumstance and not poor performance. This may have lead to his [at that time] career-highs in ERA (3.82) WHIP (1.394) and H/9 (10.3).

In 2010, pitching for high-A Salem, Pimentel has again established a career-high ERA of 4.21 while amassing what currently stands as his first sub-.500 record as a starter. Unfortunately for those who use simple statistics such as wins, losses and ERA when judging a pitcher, often times they fail to truly depict the progress made -- especially in prospects at this level.

Also, the jump from low to high-A minor league baseball is more significant than most are prone to believe. This is evident when you look at his H/9 (8.8) and more importantly his GO/AO (ground ball/fly ball ratio), which is the highest it’s been since 2007 at 1.16. Last season, Pimentel’s GO/AO was a career-low at 0.88 and was a main area of concern that warranted addressing during his ascent through the minor league ranks.

The similarities in development between Hanley and Stolmy at the onset of their minor league careers -- despite the differing nature of their positions -- is rather remarkable.

In 2001, as an eighteen year-old signed out of the Dominican Republic (to a bonus of $20,000), Hanley Ramirez stood out as a member of the DSL Red Sox. In 54 games, Ramirez his .345, slugged .533, stole 13 bases and drove in 34 runs on his way to being named the DSL Red Sox’s Player of the Year. He would continue his domination as a nineteen year-old in 2002 playing for the Lowell Spinners (also named the Spinners‘ Player of the Year in 2002). However, the following year -- his first in high-A ball -- Hanley struggled a bit. In 111 games his batting average dipped to .275, he was caught stealing 13 times and he struck out every 5.7 at-bats (as compared to his once per 8.9 at-bats to that point in his career).

Pimentel, in his first season with the GSL Red Sox at the age of seventeen (2007), went 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts. He allowed just 44 hits in 62 innings pitched while striking out 60. His 6.4 H/9 number lead to a career low WHIP of 1.065, and ultimately, a vote into the DSL All-Star game. The following season, like Hanley before him, moving to low-A ball at Lowell did little to derail Stolmy’s success. In his 11 starts, Pimentel went 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA. His BB/9 dropped nearly one point and his SO/BB did the exact opposite.

While the likelihood of Stolmy Pimentel becoming a household name as Hanley Ramirez currently is remains hypothetical, one thing is for certain -- with such a prevalent misallocation of funding in this particular manner, Pimentel could represent a rarity for Boston’s international scouting department; an increasingly refined, but once very raw, cost efficient signing via overseas.

Especially in the event that Boston’s international spending trends similar to the way it has been in recent years.

Since July of 2007, Boston has awarded nearly $17 million in signing bonuses to fourteen different international acquisitions; the smallest being $125,000 (Roman Mendez, 2007) and the average being $1,213,393.

With such a distinct increase in attention towards international scouting and acquisitions comes an even more prominent escalation in spending as a whole, which is, of course, understandable. However, the growth of the two needn’t necessarily do so parallelly.

As players like Hanley Ramirez -- and perhaps someday soon, Stolmy Pimentel -- shows us, you don't always get what you pay for, but sometimes it's for the better.

Lackey, Lowrie Lead Red Sox Past Angels 4-2

Logan Lietz — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 09:01:46 -0000

In a battle of starting pitchers who both own records that are not quite indicative of their performances to this point in 2010, it was former Angels' ace John Lackey that ended up outdueling the current ace, Jared Weaver, earning his 10th win of the season -- and earn it, he did.

In his first appearance in Angels Stadium as a member of the Boston Red Sox, Lackey labored through 7 1/3 innings, surrendering just a pair of runs on seven hits and a walk.

The chorus of boos that met Lackey on the mound in the game's first inning wasn't the ideal welcome, but it sure seemed to provide an extra bit of motivation for the Red Sox's starter. "I mean, you know, nobody wants to get booed like that," Lackey said. "[The] scoreboard talks the loudest."

On a night where the offense was at the mercy of Weaver throughout the first six frames, it was with two outs in the top half of the seventh when the bats finally broke through.

Darnell McDonald, a late replacement for J.D. Drew (hamstring) prior to the start of Tuesday night's game, set the table for the top of the lineup with a two-out walk. The top of the lineup and middle-infield tandem, Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie, proved very productive on the night (5-10, 2 R, 2 RBI) and never more so than in this instance.

After Scutaro singled, advancing McDonald to third and putting runners on the corners for the recently-reactivated Lowrie, Jed collected his second double of the night; this one plating both runners and turning Boston's 0-1 deficit into a 2-1 advantage.

The offense added another the following inning after Beltre doubled in David Ortiz, who reached base via leadoff walk, to make it 3-1 in favor of the Red Sox.

Bobby Abreau helped the Angels negate Boston's run in the top half of the eighth by launching a one-out solo home run off of Lackey in the bottom half; Abreau would be Lackey's final batter of the night.

Suddenly the Red Sox lead was cut in half and the game was handed over to the bullpen -- a less-than-comfortable situation, especially on this particular road trip.

However, for the second consecutive night, Boston's bats weren't content with a one-run lead entering the final inning. Again centered around Scutaro -- whose double with one out in the ninth off Angels' closer Brian Fuentes served as spark plug -- the Red Sox provided another run of padding for closer Jonathan Papelbon; that is after Daniel Bard manuevered around the meat of the opposing lineup in the eighth, earning his 23rd hold of the season.

Papelbon produced a non-eventful ninth, earning his 24th save of the season and helping the Red Sox again double-up the home team -- this time by a score of 4-2 -- to earn their first series victory of 2010's second half.

Josh Beckett (1-1, 6.66 ERA) and his satanic earned run average will take the mound for Boston in the finale of this three-game set Wednesday afternoon at Angels Stadium; opposing him for the LA Angels of A will be Joel Pineiro (10-7, 4.18 ERA).

Game 95: Red Sox (53-41) @ Athletics (47-47)

Logan Lietz — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 17:27:00 -0000

So first they go on the West Coast and treat us to 10:00 PM games...

And now they play at 3:35 in the middle of the week?

Man, if I were a productive member of society at the moment, I'd be really annoyed.

Anyways, it's time for the rubber game, featuring a (hopefully) healthy Clay Buchholz!

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2010 - Clay Buchholz	10-4	15	15	1	1	0	0	92.0	77	31	25	3	38	64	2.45	1.25

The A's send the awesomely named Gio Gonzalez to the mound in opposition.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2010 - Gio Gonzalez	8-6	19	19	0	0	0	0	114.0	102	47	46	9	54	92	3.63	1.37

Also featuring: the return of Jed Lowrie! But Darnell McDonald is leading off. Ugh, Terry, why do you hate switching the lineup spots around so much?

Lineup

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

07/21/10 3:35 PM EDT

Boston Red Sox	Oakland Athletics
Darnell McDonald - LF	Cliff Pennington - SS
Jed Lowrie - SS	Daric Barton - 1B
David Ortiz - DH	Kurt Suzuki - C
Kevin Youkilis - 1B	Jack Cust - DH
Adrian Beltre - 3B	Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B
J.D. Drew - RF	Mark Ellis - 2B
Mike Cameron - CF	Matt Watson - LF
Bill Hall - 2B	Rajai Davis - RF
Dusty Brown - C	Coco Crisp - CF

The Rays and Yanks are both leading late. Not one we want to lose.

So first they go on the West Coast and treat us to 10:00 PM games...

And now they play at 3:35 in the middle of the week?

Man, if I were a productive member of society at the moment, I'd be really annoyed.

Anyways, it's time for the rubber game, featuring a (hopefully) healthy Clay Buchholz!

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2010 - Clay Buchholz	10-4	15	15	1	1	0	0	92.0	77	31	25	3	38	64	2.45	1.25

The A's send the awesomely named Gio Gonzalez to the mound in opposition.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2010 - Gio Gonzalez	8-6	19	19	0	0	0	0	114.0	102	47	46	9	54	92	3.63	1.37

Also featuring: the return of Jed Lowrie! But Darnell McDonald is leading off. Ugh, Terry, why do you hate switching the lineup spots around so much?

Lineup

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

07/21/10 3:35 PM EDT

Boston Red Sox	Oakland Athletics
Darnell McDonald - LF	Cliff Pennington - SS
Jed Lowrie - SS	Daric Barton - 1B
David Ortiz - DH	Kurt Suzuki - C
Kevin Youkilis - 1B	Jack Cust - DH
Adrian Beltre - 3B	Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B
J.D. Drew - RF	Mark Ellis - 2B
Mike Cameron - CF	Matt Watson - LF
Bill Hall - 2B	Rajai Davis - RF
Dusty Brown - C	Coco Crisp - CF

The Rays and Yanks are both leading late. Not one we want to lose.

Fit Club: I am Red Sox Nation's Unwavering Optimism

Logan Lietz — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 15:25:56 -0000

"Only after disaster can we be resurrected."

‘Disaster’ is a more-than-sufficient descriptive analysis of the patchwork lineup -- albeit one necessitated via injury-induced depletion -- seemingly featured by the Red Sox on a nightly basis this season. And yet, despite being robbed of a victory late Tuesday night in Oakland due to faulty late-inning officiating, Boston finds themselves just 3.5 games back of the Wild Card lead in the increasingly-treacherous American League.

Whether that speaks on behalf of Boston’s ability to have trod water to this point or conjures a relative sense of optimism regarding the proceedings will be heavily dependent on the health of the team from this point on -- which, as this article’s title indicates, should doubtlessly disqualify the latter.

Or should it?

While a barrage of A-list reinforcements tentatively scheduled for reactivation from the disabled list aids topical optimism, this year is beginning to appear eerily mnemonic of the Red Sox’s 2006 season; the last in which Boston failed to participate in the postseason.

That being said, exactly what type of results can be expected following the eventual returns of Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Clay Buchholz, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida -- all of whom have, or are expected to, miss significant time while on the disabled list?

More importantly, will those contributions be enough to elude missing the playoffs, much like in 2006, for the first time in four years?

In most instances, it’s a safe assumption that after having played nearly one-hundred games during the course of the regular season one can accurately evaluate any given team’s postseason potential.

Given Boston’s position in the playoff picture at the moment (53-41; 6 and 3.5 games back in the A.L. East and Wild Card, respectively), it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to find even a few Bostonians who are of the opinion that their hometown Red Sox are destined to experience October baseball from the comfort of their own homes, just like the rest of us -- especially considering the competitiveness currently on display in the American League.

However, as the old adage regarding the result of one’s assumptions suggests, there can certainly be exceptions to the rule.

Just take a look back at the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who stood 5.5 games back with a record of 45-45 following a one-run loss on the road in ten innings against the Brewers in mid-July. Colorado would go on to win 45 of their remaining 73 games -- including a one-game playoff tie-breaker against the Padres -- propelling them into the postseason, and ultimately, the World Series.

Tuesday night, the Red Sox, in a similar fashion to the fate suffered by Colorado that July night in Milwaukee, dropped game two of a crucial road series by a margin of one run in ten innings after winning the first matchup and leading throughout a good portion of the second.

The similarities don’t end there.

At this point, almost exactly three years ago in that 2007 dream season, the Rockies also found themselves in a bout with the ‘injury bug.’

Closer Brian Fuentes, amidst some uncharacteristic underperforming, was sent to the disabled list with a strained lat muscle following blown saves in four consecutive appearances -- ballooning his ERA from 1.89 to 3.79 in a matter of just 2.3 innings pitched. Despite amassing 81 saves and earning three All-Star Game appearances in as many years from 2005-2007 for the Rockies, Fuentes would never save a game from that point on in 2007, surrendering his closer role to then up and coming 24 year-old Manny Corpas.

In Corpas’ first full season in the big leagues, he went 2-0 with 19 saves in 20 chances following Fuentes’ injury, including perhaps the most important save of his career in the final game of the regular season which sent his team to the postseason. In that postseason, Corpas went 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA (10.3 IP, 1 ER) while recording five saves and appearing in every single one of Colorado’s first seven playoff games [all wins] during their memorable run to the World Series.

Attention: Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard.

Also that year, in spite of season ending trips to the disabled list for starting pitchers Rodrigo Lopez, Jason Hirsh and Aaron Cook in early August, Rockies’ management was content enough with the product on the field to avoid any mid-season marquee acquisitions. Instead, they entered the final two months of the season without a large portion of their starting rotation and 3.5 games out of the playoffs.

The Red Sox, according to near-unanimous reports, also appear content with the core of their roster -- once solidified -- and will assuredly avoid any notable trade-deadline splashes. That, like the Rockies, comes despite an oft-injured and constantly irregular starting rotation, among other areas of the depth chart.

The thinking is seemingly not that Boston is cursed health-wise this season -- requiring pursuit of an available impact player at the cost of whatever internal resources it may solicit -- but instead that the team will eventually crystallize in time for a run at, and hopefully through, the postseason.

Unfortunately, this is a similar mind state to that conceived by the front office during the dismal downfall of the 2006 season.

Whether it’s in the best interest of the team to make a move for some help before the end of the July 31^st non-waiver trade-deadline isn’t the point; it’s the overall correspondence between the 2006 and 2010 seasons that creates cause for concern.

Identically to this season, the Red Sox entered opening day with postseason aspirations in 2006 for what would have been the fourth consecutive year.

For comparative purposes, after ninety-four games this season the Red Sox stand at 54-41, six games behind the division leading Yankees; in 2006 Boston was 58-36 and holding strong in first place with a 2.5 game lead.

That year, atypically, the team was held in higher regard for their defensive prowess rather than their offense. Sound familiar? In what was certainly the most impressive overall team defensive performance sustained for an entire season in organizational history -- even making a strong case for the best in the history of baseball, period -- Boston set the record for highest team fielding percentage in MLB history [.98910].

However, the team was marred by injuries to key components such as Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon and Tim Wakefield, eventually finishing the stretch run with a 28-40 record, missing the playoffs and spoiling historic seasons from David Ortiz (franchise record 54 home runs) and, then rookie reliever, Jonathan Papelbon (35 saves, 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

So, which of the above instances will the end of 2010 most resemble? Could it be the perseverance and prosperity of the Rockies’ majestic 2007 run? Or will it mirror that of the ‘06 Red Sox season, which was overshadowed by ultimate implosion?

At this point, it remains anyone’s guess. However, as previously stated, health will end up being the focal factor in retrospect -- whether fans gaze back gleefully or while grimacing.

Now, contradictory to what you may have heard, all men are not created equal, and thus, not all of the eventual Red Sox returnees will have the same impact or are of equal importance in the grand scheme of things.

Obviously players like Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz are considered instrumental to the team‘s success, that goes without saying, but Buchholz isn’t far removed from being game ready and Pedroia works harder than most individuals on the active roster right now despite an incapacitated left leg -- we know what we stand to gain from their returns.

Instead, we focus on a select three in particular, outside of Pedroia and Buchholz, that may represent greater return than the rest: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Josh Beckett.

Forget Ellsbury’s spat with team physicians, his decision to conduct his more-extensive-than-originally-planned rehab separate from the rest of the team and even his now supposedly questionable toughness. What’s really of issue is what his return means to a lineup that, even when graced with his presence, lacks a real element of speed.

Marco Scutaro has done a truly commendable job filling in at the top of the order for Ellsbury (.282), the slot in which he thrived in last season with Toronto. However, there’s no denying the difference in an opponent’s strategy and state of mind with Ellsbury standing on first as opposed to Scutaro. Not to mention the defensive lift Ellsbury creates by giving Mike Cameron some sorely needed time off without having to settle on the likes of Bill Hall or Daniel Nava to man the outfield.

If Ellsbury can come back and be as effective as he was in 2009, his return will be invaluable to Boston in every facet of the game. One may argue that his potential impact could almost be considered a second coming of what he provided for the team back in late-2007.

Next, after Ellsbury, may be the most unexpected of the three; that may also be a main reason for singling him out.

Jed Lowrie has missed not only the entire 2010 season so far, but nearly all of last year as well, following a left wrist injury in 2008, subsequent surgery in 2009 and finally a diagnosis of mononucleosis this year midway through Spring Training.

While it may be that the Red Sox are set at shortstop -- Lowrie’s traditional position -- with the off-season addition of Scutaro, his recovery represents more than simply that of your typical reserve shortstop. In ten games between Class A Lowell and Triple-A Pawtucket, Lowrie went 11-30 (.367) with five extra base hits, nine runs batted in and six walks. "The first time I went out and played and felt healthy -- it was a good feeling," Lowrie said. "It was almost a foreign feeling to feel healthy."

If that foreign feeling becomes more fluent for Lowrie, his ability to switch-hit and play multiple infield positions could be an enormous lift for Boston’s bench depth and late-game situational options. Again, any time that appearances normally relegated to Bill Hall get dispersed elsewhere will be a welcome sight come playoff time -- especially when they’re going to someone as versatile as Lowrie has the potential to be.

The final selection is perhaps the most obvious of the three but remains the most important, nevertheless.

Ace pitcher Josh Beckett’s services have been absent for what seems like the entirety of 2010 to this point. Josh has made just eight starts this season and none since May 18^th; he is set to return this Friday for a start on the road against the Mariners. Beckett is the single most important piece of the puzzle currently missing.

Although minor league rehab starts are never quite fully revealing of a player’s progression to the untrained eye, it doesn’t take 20/20 vision to see that Beckett’s two outings weren’t exactly visually appeasing. In two starts with Triple-A Pawtucket, Beckett allowed four runs on seven hits, while striking out seven in his nine combined innings.

Again, ignoring the fact that Beckett, like all rehabbing pitchers, was ultimately working on general pitch location and not so much the specifics, his numbers don’t necessarily reflect as stellar -- which is precisely what Boston needs them to be.

The Red Sox are at a point where even just a week or two of poor play can put them in a position of great imposition. What traditionally makes for the best defense against extended losing streaks is a reliable starting pitcher to act as stopper. There’s no question that Beckett can be that guy for Boston; his track-record does nothing but reaffirm it.

The questions is: Will he be? Does he have enough time to again get acclimated to the pressures and demands of a playoff push? The smart money is on ‘yes,’ with a great deal of the reasoning belonging to one man’s efforts in particular.

This season, Tim Wakefield has done what he’s always done during the course of his career in Boston -- that being whatever they ask him to do -- but at this point in his career he may be best suited for the occasional spot start and long relief duty. Substituting his production with what Beckett is capable of offering would only make the starting rotation that much more imposing and the overall depth of the pitching staff increasingly formidable. There’s no belittling the direct impact Wakefield had on Josh’s recovery; his ability to temporarily fill the spot vacated by Beckett’s disabled list stint afforded the team ample time to carefully guide him back to full health -- something that should pay off tenfold down the road.

All things considered, it appears that the worst days are behind the Red Sox. As health increases and the disabled list becomes less crowded, the likelihood of this year’s installment of Red Sox baseball ending in a similar fashion to that of 2006 -- after just 162 total games -- significantly decreases.

Thanks to unsung heroes such as Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava -- and earlier in the season, Jeremy Hermida -- the Red Sox’s returning regulars will come back with an obtainable opportunity to reach out and secure a spot in the postseason.

And I think we can all agree that 2007 was accompanied by a more enjoyable conclusion than the season that preceded it.

Poll

Which of these returning players do you feel represents the most important piece of the Red Sox's playoff puzzle?

Jacoby Ellsbury. The lineup needs more diversity.

35 votes

Josh Beckett. Pitching is always the key.

108 votes

Victor Martinez. Not enough mention of him in all this.

99 votes

Other (utilize the comments section).

31 votes

273 votes | Poll has closed

DeJesus Rumors Elicit End Of Ellsbury Era In Boston?

Logan Lietz — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:06:35 -0000

Jacoby Ellsbury has found himself immersed in Red Sox-related headlines more than you’d expect regarding your typical disabled list constituent. Ellsbury’s current situation has evoked a wide range of opinions and emotions -- from scrutiny to sympathy -- in relation to multiple topics. From Jacoby’s injured ribs and the amount of time he has required for rehab to, perhaps subsequently, trade rumors educing the end of the ‘Ellsbury Era’ in Boston.

Deliberation regarding Ellsbury has not been confined to the media -- partially because they wouldn’t allow it. In fact, it was his very own teammate Kevin Youkilis’ sentiments that may have summed the situation up best.

"I don’t know what’s going on with Jacoby. I don’t think any of us really know." Youkilis was then asked whether he questioned the length of time Ellsbury required away from the team and on the disabled list, replying, "Don’t go down that road. One thing I can say is there’s a lot of guys here that are hurt and supporting the team. We wish Jacoby was here supporting us, too."

Adhering to the adage suggesting that when it rains, it pours, the Red Sox are now reportedly in semi-substantive discussions with the Kansas City Royals concerning the availability of outfielder David DeJesus.

Could the potential addition of DeJesus, along with the rest of the aforementioned, serve as a foreshadower for Ellsbury’s exit from Boston?

Initially, news appertaining to Ellsbury seemed to focalize on his injured ribs -- what the correct diagnosis and prognosis were in particular. Those ribs, labeled as bruised directly following a collision with third baseman Adrian Beltre, have since been formally escalated to the fractured variety.

Explaining how and when that happened, however, is heavily dependent on who you’re asking.

While Ellsbury maintains that he secured the fractures at the time of his encounter with Beltre’s knee [April 11^th], the medical staff of the Boston Red Sox -- namely its director, Dr. Thomas Gill -- attest that the actual fracturing of the ribs resulted from a diving catch that Ellsbury made just three days removed from his initial disabled list stint against Philadelphia [May 23^rd].

Upon his return to the team in Toronto last week, Jacoby met an onslaught of questioning from the reporters that encompassed his dressing area fully prepared and in defense mode; enter said rift.

Reading from pages of presumably self-scribed notes, Ellsbury claimed to have experienced pain on both the front and back of his rib cage as a direct result of the April collision and that he asked for -- but was denied -- MRI exams by club personnel. Jacoby’s adamant -- and all-too-verbal -- accusations of misdiagnosis directly contradicted claims made by Dr. Gill (that the fractures were sustained after diving for a ball in late-May, over a month after the original injury).

Regardless of who is ultimately correct in the matter of when the actual fracturing occurred, Ellsbury’s toughness and resiliency have already been brought into question as a result of his prolonged absence -- and not just by Kevin Youkilis.

Instead of being praised for even attempting a comeback in May, Ellsbury has since been ridiculed for his inability to ‘tough it out’ per se -- something that he vehemently dispels.

"I didn't do this to myself. I didn't tweak something and sit out. I got hurt going all-out, 100 percent for a ball. I tried to come back when I knew I wasn't 100 percent. That's all I can say. Everybody knows how I play. Everyone knows I want to be out there. You can't control everybody and what they think. My teammates know. The fans have been great. That's all that matters."

Despite the majority of the initial backlash receding into generally empathetic inclinations -- specifically from the fans’ perspective -- that hasn’t successfully ceased the circulation of Ellsbury’s name within the context of media speculation.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, the Red Sox first made contact with the Royals regarding outfielder David DeJesus sometime around July 4^th. While nothing notably significant appeared to have stemmed from that particular meeting, the two clubs left with a mutual opinion that there was enough interest from both parties to warrant continued communication.

A continuation of those discussions is exactly what happened during Major League Baseball’s All-Star weekend festivities.

MLB sources claim that Kansas City is -- and has been -- actively scouting the ranks of Boston’s minor-league system; although at this point no names have been exchanged.

The Red Sox have used bubblegum and band aids to hold the outfield together all season long. To put it in perspective: J.D. Drew -- not typically known for his durability -- leads all Boston outfielders in games played with 78. Behind him? Darnell McDonald [68], Bill Hall [60], Eric Patterson [54] and Jeremy Hermida [45]. Not exactly what anyone had in mind entering the season.

Right now, Ellsbury’s return date remains tentative; he’ll likely be gone until at least mid-August. Mike Cameron -- despite participating at the moment -- missed the majority of May with an abdominal strain and has yet to truly reestablish form. The thought of McDonald, Hall and Patterson patching up an outfield anchored by a 34 year-old J.D. Drew does little to reaffirm fans’ optimism in the midst of a tight A.L. playoff race.

David DeJesus may aid in alleviating such concerns, but would it increase the likelihood that Ellsbury be shopped?

The 30 year-old former fourth round draft pick has played in 85 of the Royals’ 88 game this season and has seen time at all three outfield positions. DeJesus’ .326 batting average and .395 on-base percentage rank 7^th in the American League and his 107 hits is tied with the Red Sox‘s leading hitter, Adrian Beltre, for sixth in the A.L. If he continues at his current pace at the plate in 2010, David will set career-highs in nearly every major offensive statistic including BA, OBP, SLG [.460], OPS [.855] and OPS+ [133] -- all while playing in a lineup that offers less-than comparable protection when side-by-side with Boston’s.

Even if Ellsbury and Cameron are both healthy and back in the lineup by the end of August as most reports suggest -- and Drew can continue to stave off the injury bug -- would production like DeJesus’ not represent an upgrade at least somewhere out there? Perhaps shifting Ellsbury back to centerfield and placing DeJesus in left for the remainder of 2010 would be the most ideal scenario. You wouldn’t lose too much at either position defensively and DeJesus’ ability to get one base and put the ball in play would certainly be a welcomed change from Cameron’s heavy strikeout totals.

The question isn’t whether or not DeJesus would be a nice addition to the Red Sox; obviously he would. Instead, the real question is whether Boston has the type of package that could pry DeJesus from Kansas City (it’s been said that the Royals are looking to be considered clear-cut winners in any trade involving David), and in turn, how willing the Red Sox are to meet the Royals’ requirements.

Unlike most teams that find themselves out of the playoff race and looking to make some deals at the midway point of the season, the Royals aren’t necessarily in dire need of procuring younger talents in an effort to rebuild.

Backing an already respectable core of young starting pitchers at the major league level, Kansas City’s minor league system features six pitchers in the organization’s ten top-rated prospects [according to Baseball America’s annual rankings]. At the corner infield spots, Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo and Alex Gordon -- all 27 years of age or younger -- will soon be joined by highly-touted prospects Mike Moustakas (3B, 21 y.o.), and Eric Hosmer (1B, 20 y.o.).

However, where the Royals could potentially stand to get more youthful is at catcher and, ironically enough, in the outfield.

While Wil Myers, a catcher drafted by K.C. in 2009 having not yet turned the age of twenty, offers some futuristic hope of replacing current starting catcher -- 36 year-old Jason Kendall -- catching prospects remain one of the toughest of all positions to develop; you can never have too many, and unfortunately for the Royals, Myers may be all that they have.

As far as outfielders go, the Royals’ current roster boasts exactly zero under the age of 28 -- the obvious exception being DeJesus -- and if there’s one thing that Boston holds in surplus, it’s tradable outfield prospects.

Could a package centered around a couple players such as Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway -- possibly including someone like Che-Hsuan Lin -- be enough to snag DeJesus?

Reddick has already shown flashes of his true potential at the major league level, and the 23 year-old represents a ready-to-contribute, but still young enough to suggest further development, outfield option.

Lavarnway, a 22 year-old catcher, has been climbing the ranks of Boston’s minor leagues. He, similarly to Reddick, is a still-young -- but potentially ready to contribute on the major league level -- prospect-type player at a position of need for K.C. In 2009, Lavarnway was named SoxProspects.com’s Offensive Player of the Year as well as MLB.com’s Red Sox Organization Player of the Year; not to mention the fact that he’s riding into the trade deadline on the back of Player of the Month Awards for both April and June.

Lin is an interesting addition because of his abnormally high upside. He’s the type of 21 year-old prospect that no team would hesitate taking a risk on. The Red Sox, however, can afford to move someone like Lin because by the time he is fully-developed, other similarly-aged and more polished outfield prospects -- Ryan Kalish and Reymond Fuentes in particular -- will likely already have begun contributing at the big league level.

Would the Red Sox be willing to offer this type of package for a player of DeJesus’ caliber, and in turn, would the Royals accept such an offer? Neither may ultimately be considered probable, however with Cameron, Drew and DeJesus under club control in 2011, grabbing DeJesus (who comes with a relatively cheap $6 million option) could actually make the latter of the two the more feasible.

For one, the Red Sox could then afford to pass on Cameron‘s option, replacing him with DeJesus for very little difference in salary -- DeJesus would likely shift to LF in this scenario. Boston could then turn around to use some of the money saved by any of the other plethora of potential departures following this season [David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Jonathan Papelbon] to sign a free agent such as Jayson Werth -- or less-likely -- someone like Carl Crawford.

This is where trading Ellsbury becomes arguably most sensible -- this off season.

Assuming the Red Sox would make a move on someone like Werth after acquiring DeJesus and exercising Drew’s option to fill out the outfield this winter, they would still likely be left with a glaring need at one of the ‘glamour’ positions such as catcher or third base. A player like Ellsbury is the type of trade bait that can land the ideal impact player that the Red Sox would desire when attempting to replace the likes of either Victor Martinez or Adrian Beltre.

The again, given enough time, anyone might be able to conjure up a sequence of events justifying almost any random trade rumor.

The fact of the matter is, when it’s all said and done it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox actively pursuing the subtraction of Jacoby Ellsbury from their lineup -- even in the event that they land DeJesus. Ellsbury represents a still-developing, not yet in the prime of his career, monetarily affordable game-changer at the leadoff position. His impossible-to-ignore element of speed discreetly packaged in a lineup underwhelmed with base running threats is invaluable -- especially for those hitting directly behind him.

Make no mistake about it, the acquisition of David DeJesus is still a very distinct possibility and something that the Red Sox are surely exploring. However, like most trade rumors lacking any semblance of tangible evidence -- especially in Boston -- this one probably won’t evolve into anything.

The Expendables: Boston's Most Tradable Prospects

Logan Lietz — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 04:29:30 -0000

What do Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia all have in common?

With Major League Baseball’s All Star weekend just around the corner, you may guess that this is the list of players who will represent the Red Sox at this season’s mid-summer classic festivities. You, however, would be incorrect. Instead, those listed above -- along with Jeremy Hermida, Jed Lowrie and Junichi Tazawa -- collectively comprise one of the most talented and accolade-laden disabled lists in all of baseball.

As the non-waiver trade deadline looms, now is the time for front office executives to assess their respective teams in an attempt to decide whether it’s in the organization’s best interest to buy or sell come July 31^st. If it is in fact the latter, then it becomes a matter of addressing the product on the field, choosing the areas in need of improvement and ultimately finding the best ‘seller’ to pair needs with.

The dilemma for Boston is not whether they plan to buy or sell -- as one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past couple of months, it’s a safe bet that they assume a buyer’s position -- the problem is that with such a depleted team for so much of the season, deciphering the prominently problematic areas of the depth chart remains a relatively grey area as the complete product has yet to be seen in its utmost entirety.

And while it would be ignorant to believe that Boston is without any semblance of a plan in regards to the trade deadline, many outside factors remain unrealized, and the rest of the baseball market may not be as sure as the Red Sox are when it comes to self-proclaiming a buyer or seller status.

So, instead of extensively exploring the ranks of Major League Baseball’s trade-bait candidates, a good portion of the immediate future for Fenway’s front office may be used on deciding which individuals currently in the system are the most expendable, and also, which will offer the greatest return.

For now, we focus on the younger talent within the organization.

The foundation of the Red Sox’s starting rotation appears to be solidified for the foreseeable future. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and inevitably, Clay Buchholz, are contractually locked up for at least the next few years. The stability of the rotation belittles the value of some of the near-ready pitching prospects in Boston’s system as there is little to no room for them at the major league level anytime soon.

Then again, as they say, one man's waste is another man's treasure.

Sure, the Red Sox may not have a glaring need for the services of some of their more seasoned pitching prospects, but that doesn’t change the fact that the majority of the remaining buyers will more than likely be seeking pitching help for the stretch run. Even those sellers who will choose the rebuilding road come deadline time will inevitably be seeking younger, less developmentally demanding, pitching prospects to build around.

Boston’s top prospect, Casey Kelly, a starting pitcher, is just twenty years of age. Stolmy Pimentel, the organization’s number seven rated prospect (according to SoxProspects.com), is also a twenty year-old starting pitcher with an immense upside. By the time the Red Sox have the necessity to fill vacated spots in the starting rotation, both of these pitchers should be ready to help the major league club.

However, there are five other starting pitchers in Boston’s top twenty prospects, all of whom are twenty-three years of age or older -- with the exception of Felix Doubront, who turns twenty-three in October.

This log-jam of young, but still MLB-ready, starting pitchers places the Red Sox in an advantageous position come time to negotiate any potential trades; they have a surplus of prospect trade chips at one of the most highly sought-after positions in major league baseball. Solid young starting pitching is tough to develop, so when you have the chance acquire it from a team that has done such a tremendous job of developing it themselves, it’s not something to be taken lightly. A package of a couple young pitchers looks that much more enticing when they are coming from an organization that has produced the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz to build a rotation around in recent years.

With that in mind, the most expendable starting pitching prospects in the Red Sox’s system would seem to be Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden and either Kyle Weiland or Alex Wilson.

Felix Doubront may be the most enticing of those four. Not only is Doubront the youngest of the group, but he may be the most polished at this stage in his development. In other words, he may be the only one of the four with the capability of winning a rotation spot right now, and at the same time, he still offers arguably the highest upside. Doubront made his major league debut with the Red Sox on June 18^th, notching his first career victory in a 10-6 win against the Dodgers at Fenway Park. Doubront’s final line -- three earned runs in five innings of work -- may not seem all that impressive at first glance, but the young southpaw made a very positive impression overall in his first stint with the major league club.

Some have suggested that the spot start awarded to Doubront may have been an effort to showcase his ability to pitch at the next level to potential suitors. While that may in fact be the case, it is unlikely that Boston ends up moving Doubront when it’s all said and done.

The reason someone such as Doubront, who is held in such high regard by Red Sox management, would ever be showcased is in the event that the club decided it was necessary to upgrade at a position of higher profile. For instance, in the event that David Ortiz remained in a prolonged slump at the designated hitter position, Doubront could have served as a centerpiece in a package bringing over someone like, say, the Milwaukee Brewers’ Prince Fielder.

However, now that Ortiz has reaffirmed his status as one of the game’s most feared power hitters, the Red Sox are without a truly prominent hole at any of the ‘glamour’ positions, so to speak. Instead, the Red Sox, thanks to a plethora of injuries during the course of the season, will likely shift their focus towards adding quality depth on the bench -- that, and some bullpen relief.

Typically, acquiring the likes of a middle reliever or utility infielder requires substantially less than what a marquee starting pitcher or power hitter would command on the trade market.

Michael Bowden may end up being the man on the move out of the aforementioned pitchers in this scenario.

Bowden has seen his fair share of both ups and downs in his time with the Red Sox. He has been one of the highest rated prospects in the system and has pitched successfully during brief stints at the major league level, but he's also struggled at times. At twenty-three years of age, Bowden's ceiling is gradually declining from where it once was thought to be, but he still has the sort of stuff that could translate well on a consistent basis in the MLB.

Pitching isn’t the only position in Boston’s system that has noticeable depth, and subsequently, resources.

Current outfielders Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew are past their glory years, there’s no denying that, but the Red Sox’s organization has plenty of options at outfield when it comes to the ranks of the farm system. Similarly to the starting pitching position, five of the current top twenty rated prospects in Boston are outfielders. Ryan Westmoreland, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Reymond Fuentes and Che-Hsuan Lin are all outfield prospects at, or under the age of twenty-two.

It’s safe to say that Westmoreland, Fuentes and Lin are all off-limits in any trade discussions -- especially considering the lack of impact players rumored in relation to the Red Sox’s trade deadline plans -- however, Reddick and Kalish are different stories.

Kalish, now in Pawtucket, has shot up the ladder of the Red Sox’s system recently -- as high as the second rated prospect overall, depending on who you ask. An outfielder of his caliber, and still at the ripe age of twenty-two, is more than likely in the same ‘untouchable’ type category as someone like Doubront -- which makes Reddick an intriguing trade candidate.

Much like Michael Bowden, Reddick has flashed the ability to dominate the higher ranks of the minor leagues and has seen sufficient time at the major league level, but has yet to show the ability to rise above the ranks of his fellow outfield prospects in his still-young career. Reddick’s plate discipline -- twenty-three strikeouts to only three walks with Boston -- make him less likely to ultimately stick within the confines of the organization. Yet, the raw power and athleticism shown during his time with the team could make him an appealing portion in a package of prospects that could land the Red Sox the type of deadline addition they need in order to separate themselves from the rest of the American League.

Depth at a particular position doesn’t necessarily guarantee that it be the area of the system from which the Red Sox exploit during trade talks -- for instance, first baseman Lars Anderson is also a name that could be tossed around in the upcoming weeks -- but it certainly seems plausible in regards to Boston given the abnormally deep nature of their pitching and outfield positions throughout the system as a whole.

Again, while it remains unlikely that the Red Sox make a blockbuster-type deal come the deadline, the fact of the matter is that it remains of near-unanimous opinion that Boston has its areas in need of addressing -- especially while they compete with the likes of the American League's East division.

However, whether it be blockbuster or smaller-scaled, the Red Sox, again thanks to a fruitful farm system, find themselves in an advantageous position as the always important trade deadline looms.

Boston's Best: Buchholz Exceeding Elevated Expecations

Logan Lietz — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 07:37:07 -0000

With the Red Sox entering the season with six viable options to fill a starting rotation with just five spots, the question surrounding starter Clay Buchholz wasn’t where, but rather if, he fit amongst Boston‘s overstocked staff.

Despite the presence of one of baseball’s best pairings at the front end of the rotation -- Josh Beckett and Jon Lester -- the most notable acquisition of the off-season for the Red Sox was the top available free agent starting pitcher on the market, John Lackey. With Daisuke Matsuzaka slotted in the fourth spot by default, just one starting spot remained vacant heading into spring training.

There was plenty of backing for Buchholz after a strong finish to the season prior; he even received a public endorsement via manager Terry Francona during the spring. "I think we all want him to take this and go with it. And he looks so strong," said Francona.

Others, however, favored veteran Tim Wakefield as the fifth and final starting pitcher. At the time, it wasn’t difficult to comprehend the ideology behind those opposing Buchholz. After all, you knew what you were going to get with Wakefield, whereas Clay’s name had almost been synonymous with the word inconsistent throughout the early portion of his career.

And yet, as the Red Sox and the rest of Major League Baseball approach the midway point of the season, it’s the previously mentioned Buchholz-backers that are saying, "I told you so." Not only has the 25-year-old matured into an All Star considerable in 2010, he also presents a strong case as the Red Sox’s most valuable player for the season’s first half.

The starting rotation, thought to be as good, if not better, than any other in baseball, struggled in the early goings of 2010. Jon Lester again lived up to his reputation as a slow starter, sporting an inflated ERA and losing both his first two decisions. Josh Beckett struggled as well, before ultimately leaving on an extended disabled list stint. Daisuke Matsuzaka, similarly to Beckett, has spent half the time struggling on the field and the other half plagued by injuries off of it.

While the offense -- originally thought to be the team’s off-season-induced area of concern -- has been better than expected, the result of the problematic pitching was a month-long inability to maintain, or even reach, a .500 record.

However, since starting the year 4-9, the Red Sox have won more games than any other team in baseball and currently find themselves within reaching distance of the top spot in the American League East standings. Lester has regained his dominant form as one of the most imposing left-handers in the game as of late, John Lackey has continued to produce positively out of the middle of the order and, aside from the still-rehabbing Josh Beckett, the rotation as a whole has rounded into one of baseball’s best, statistically speaking.

Clay Buchholz has been an integral aspect in the emergence of what is now considered one of baseball’s most feared teams, the Boston Red Sox.

From 2007-2009, Buchholz started thirty-four games for Boston -- of those, Clay won just twelve and lost fourteen. In that time, he accrued an ERA just under 5.00 and surrendered an average of nearly 1.3 home runs per nine innings. After repeating baseball’s all-too-common phrase "wait till next year" in regards to Buchholz’s developmental completion, it seems as though Red Sox Nation was finally on to something when they reverted back to the old saying following an encouraging finish for Clay in 2009.

Buchholz’s ten wins this season leads the rotation that he once had to fight just to be a part of, and it nearly matches his career win total [12] entering the season. His ERA of 2.47 also leads all starting pitchers, besting the man second on that list, Jon Lester [3.03], by over half a run. Clay is second only to Lester in strikeouts, and surprisingly, is the only member of the rotation to throw a complete game shutout.

Deciding a team’s most valuable player more often than not extends beyond the statistical realm -- Buchholz’s case is no different.

One of the most overlooked aspects of the Red Sox’s resurgence is the absence of Josh Beckett in the starting rotation. Beckett has made just eight starts this season and none since mid-May when he surrendered five runs in less than five innings at Yankee Stadium. In his four starts prior to his disabled list departure, the normally reliable Beckett went 0-1 with a 9.90 ERA, giving up nine walks, twenty-nine hits, and twenty-two earned runs in just twenty innings pitched.

Buchholz has had an enormous impact on the way Josh Beckett’s season has played out thus far and subsequently how successful it ends up being following his eventual return to the rotation.

For instance, early in the season while Beckett and the rest of the staff struggled in one way or another, Buchholz helped hold the rotation in tact. In the month of April, when Boston went 11-12 overall, it was Clay that provided dependable outings while the front end of the rotation struggled.

April Starts GS Record ERA IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/BB

Josh Beckett: 5 (1-0) 7.22 28.6 37 23 4 13 20 1.74 1.54

Jon Lester: 5 (1-2) 4.71 28.6 26 15 2 15 32 1.43 2.13

John Lackey: 5 (2-1) 4.50 30 35 15 2 12 17 1.57 1.42

Tim Wakefield: 4 (0-1) 5.40 25 30 15 2 8 16 1.52 2.00

Clay Buchholz: 4 (2-2) 2.19 24.6 23 6 1 9 22 1.29 2.44

*Daisuke Matsuzaka did not pitch in April.

Even as Lester and the rest of the starters began to turn it around in the months of May and June, Buchholz continued to pitch exceptionally. Fueling Boston’s elevation towards the top of the divisional standings, the team’s tenatively titled 5th starter [Buchholz] has gone 8-2 with a 2.57 ERA in his last ten starts.

The rotation’s turnaround, coupled with Buchholz’s consistent success, has dramatically altered the way that Boston has handled Beckett’s lower back problems. With the team winning at such a feverish pace despite Beckett’s absence, management has been afforded the luxury of applying a high level of patience regarding his return.

Last season, Beckett threw 121 innings before the All Star break -- his highest first half total as a Red Sox. The second half of last year saw a dramatic increase in Beckett’s ERA, HR per nine innings pitched, and opponent’s BA, SLG, OPS. Instead of rushing the right-hander back to the mound, Beckett will enter the second half of the season, and hopefully the postseason, fresh and healthy -- having thrown less than fifty innings in his eight starts so far in 2010.

There’s no doubt that the stability of the rotation, namely anchored by Buchholz, is the reason that Beckett has been allotted such a generous time table for his rehabbing. A strong second half in 2010 for Josh can be indirectly attributed to Buchholz’s influence on the mound.

Clay’s emergence as arguably the Red Sox’s best pitcher in 2010 has directly coincided with a visible mental maturation on the field. The curveball that he so heavily depended on early and often in past games is no longer his crutch when in a jam.

"I don’t think anything has changed with my stuff. It just feels better, getting out of jams than not," Buchholz said following his last start -- echoing the sentiment that it’s not necessarily his stuff that has improved, it’s the way he is utilizing it.

A newfound confidence in the ability to locate his fastball -- something that had always been noticeably absent -- has had a profound impact on Buchholz’s plan of attack. Instead of leaning on the curveball the first time through the opposing lineup, giving the hitters a look at his out-pitch early and often, Buchholz now takes a Beckett-like approach by establishing the fastball in the early innings -- effectively managing his pinch count and saving his put-away pitches for later on in games.

In a season where finding consistent production and health from the starting rotation has been a toilsome task, Clay Buchholz is having the type of season that Boston had always envisioned him having. This is the type of evolution in Buchholz’s game that has kept him in a Red Sox uniform throughout an inordinate amount of trade rumors early in his career.

In fact, at least year’s trade deadline, the Red Sox supposedly turned down a ‘Cliff Lee for Clay Buchholz, straight up' trade proposal.

Thanks to Buchholz’s performance to this point, Theo Epstein and company, like the Buchholz-backers of 2010 spring training, can now look back and collectively say, "I told you so."

Red Sox Amending Bridge Period Via Draft

Logan Lietz — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 08:52:26 -0000

Take the best talent available, with heavy considerations for potential and not so much on organizational needs.

Thanks to the benefits of a deep and fruitful farm system in recent years, the Red Sox have been afforded the luxury of applying relatively simplistic draft strategies such as the one above. The Major League Baseball draft has always been considered a hit-but-more-often-miss fiasco for most teams anyway -- so why complicate things, right?

Suffice to say, like every other MLB organization, Boston is still in the process of perfecting the way they utilize the draft process in replenishing the system -- and in turn, the product featured at Fenway Park. 2010 cites a progressive step towards that ultimate goal of consistently positive draft production.

A large portion of the farm system’s current top prospects are still in a stage that demands further development; there are few true impact players that can potentially offer the type of contributions by way of someone like Jacoby Ellsbury [circa 2007] this year or the next.

So yes, once again, the phrase "bridge period" surfaces in relation to the Red Sox’s approach to the immediate future as the 2010 MLB First-Year Player Draft got underway this past Monday.

With Amiel Sawdaye now taking over at the helm as Director of Amateur Scouting -- replacing Jason McLeod, who last held the position in 2009 -- Boston has incorporated a "big picture" element within a strategy still heavily influenced by the best overall talent available at the time of selection, resulting in a highly-praised initial two days of drafting.

Prior to this year, the last time that the Red Sox drafted a college-level player with their first draft selection was in 2005 when they chose Oregon State outfielder, Jacoby Ellsbury, with the 23^rd overall pick (not counting 2007's supplimental first round pick, Nick Hagadone). At the time, Ellsbury was the last in a streak of three successive drafts in which Boston used their first pick on a collegiate player from 2003-2005. Before him, the Red Sox had selected Dustin Pedroia (2004, round 2) and David Murphy (2003, round 1).

After taking Ellsbury in 2005, Boston followed up by selecting three more post-high school prospects -- (26^th) Craig Hansen, (42^nd) Clay Buchholz, (45^th) Jed Lowrie -- before nabbing Michael Bowden out of Waubonsie Valley High School (47^th).

That year, recently departed Jason McLeod’s first as Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting, has been arguably the most productive drafts in team history -- it also marked a turning point in the organization’s reputation as a developmental powerhouse.

The key to a successful draft overall is a team’s ability to properly balance organizational needs with a still-prominent consideration for the number of MLB-ready players currently in the system -- then formulating the relative plan of attack based on that.

You can stay within the confines of the American League East for both a positive and negative example of teams using the above idealology to this point in the 2010 draft.

Similarly to Boston, the Tampa Bay Rays’ draft to this point has been given a proverbial "thumbs up" around the league, despite using their first three picks on high school players. However, unlike the Red Sox -- who are in the midst of the oft-described "bridge period" -- Tampa Bay’s farm system features a larger selection of prospects who are nearing MLB-ready status. The result is a less-glaring need for "safe" selections, which allows the team to focus on high-ceiling high school players as the organizational depth affords them more time to refine the talent.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the New York Yankees. Despite the current roster sporting an average age of 30.4 (5^th oldest in MLB) -- and after having just recently shipped away a couple major league-ready talents this off-season -- New York decided to use their first two selections on high school players and have since been chastised almost league-wide for it. While a good deal of the eyebrow-raising is in regards the particular high school players chosen as opposed to their relative ages (taking outfielder and projected 3^rd rounder, Cito Culver, with their first pick), one look at some of the highly-developed collegiate talent still available at the times of the respective picks is what conjures the resulting poor draft grades.

With so many of the Red Sox’s top impact-projected prospects still likely more than a couple seasons away from regular contributions, the club rightfully decided to focus their first four picks (just as they did in 2005) on college level players, before turning to four consecutive prep-level picks. Also similar to 2005, Boston’s first two days of selections have been met with nothing but positive feedback.

With their first pick in the 2010 draft (20^th overall), Boston opted to take Ball State junior, Kolbrin Vitek. It’s been said that Kolbrin has managed to hit everywhere he’s gone, and his ability to play multiple positions may also represent a potential trend in early round Red Sox selections; last year Boston used their first pick on infielder/pitcher, Casey Kelly. Vitek played second base his junior season, but his size led Boston to list him as a third baseman on draft day (Vitek played third base his sophomore season). A fundamentally advanced hitter, it’s Vitek’s versatility that likely attracted Boston, as it affords them a little wiggle-room in terms of addressing organizational needs down the road.

Next, with the 36^th pick overall, Boston chose Middle Tennessee State junior outfielder, Bryce Brentz. It’s safe to assume that this selection was more a result of luck rather than an attempt at filling an organizational hole. Brentz was considered one of the top college hitters available in the draft and was thought to be a sure-fire first-rounder. Instead, Bryce fell to the Red Sox due to some questions regarding a team’s ability to sign him -- something that has never been a problem for Boston in the past. Brentz’s strong arm and plate-production should allow the Red Sox to try him at either corner outfield positions -- marking another versatile early-rounder taken by Boston.

It’s no secret that the Red Sox lack a surplus of MLB-ready pitching prospects. Aside from Felix Doubront (23 years-old), Junichi Tazawa (24 years-old) and to a lesser-extent, Michael Bowden (23 year-old), the club doesn’t feature a pitcher above the age of twenty in its top fifteen prospects [according to SoxProspects].

With that in mind, Boston used its subsequent two selections on college pitchers. Both initially considered potential first-rounders, the Red Sox grabbed Anthony Ranaudo (RHP, LSU) and Brandon Workman (RHP, UT) with the 39^th and 57^th picks, respectively.

Ranaudo was a name linked to the Red Sox in mock drafts from day one, only in most instances regarding the team’s first-round intentions. After entering the college season as one of the most highly-touted pitchers in the country, Ranaudo missed substantial time as a result of an elbow injury before returning to action later in the year, without the same success. His recent problems finding the strike zone -- combined with all that accompanies the name of his agent, Scott Boras -- is likely the reasoning behind his descent out of the first round. However, the Red Sox, who have always been very explorative regarding past injuries of prospective acquisitions, must have seen something comforting in the pitcher’s reports that led them to take the large-in-stature right-hander. Ranaudo is widely considered one of the most refined arms available during the draft -- some even predicting that he be taken off the board in the first ten picks -- and if he returns to form, could be at Fenway sooner rather than later.

Originally drafted by the Phillies in 2007, Boston’s 57^th pick, Brandon Workman, was also considered one of the most developed arms going into the draft. Like Ranaudo before him, the big right-hander is a mechanically-sound and repertoire-refined college pitcher from a top-tier program. While his ceiling, and Ranaudo’s for that matter, may not be as high as some of the more raw high school pitchers available, it’s certainly much closer within their reaches.

While there’s no arguing that Boston’s ability to sign draft picks commanding large sums of immediate monetary compensation upon signing is one reason behind its draft successes in recent years -- particularly with Brentz and Ranaudo in relation to this year -- one can’t ignore some recent mid to late round selections that are already paying dividends for the Red Sox. For instance, in 2006 the Red Sox drafted current top-rated prospects Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson in the 17^th and 18^th rounds, respectively.

Successfully selecting high school players over college ones in the opening rounds of the draft isn’t a completely foreign concept. Take 2002, when Boston passed on college stars and future MLB notables like Curtis Granderson, Fred Lewis and Lance Cormier (to name a few) and took high school hurler, Jon Lester, in just the second round.

However, one of the least-refined aspects of amateur scouting remains the recognition, evaluation and discovery of prep-level talent.

That being the case, and with so few impact players available via NCAA in this year’s class, Boston’s procurement of that relatively rare collegiate-level talent in the early rounds seems to have been driven by circumstance -- again, with considerations for the age and position allotment of current in-house prospects.

Why elect to secure a raw high school player in the first few rounds when most project him to go much later, especially when there are likely still some viable, more developed, college prospects remaining at the same position? Not only do almost guarantee overpaying that particular draftee -- as most signing bonuses are loosely influenced on where that player was selected -- the likelihood that you do so for a player that will ultimately fail to realize their full potential is immensely increased.

This is the reason that so many teams nowadays opt to take more developed (or "safe") picks in the early goings; if you’re going to allocate a lot of finances on an early-rounder, you may as well do it with a player who you feel is the closest to producing a return on that investment -- with the obvious exception being someone like Manny Machado, a high school shortstop and the third player chosen in this year’s draft by the Baltimore Orioles. After all, if there is such thing as a can’t miss prospect, it likely isn’t age-restricted.

Besides, in most cases those raw players that a team covets entering draft day will likely be there in the later rounds -- commanding substantially less money and representing a decrease in risk -- after the rest of the teams sift through the college ranks early on.

That is, unless you were a club interested in Cito Culver as a potential second-day draft selection here in 2010; in that case, the Yankees definitely beat you to that finish line.

Dustin Pedroia, You're Still Awesome

Logan Lietz — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 02:38:10 -0000

Tired of amusing Dustin Pedroia quotes (as if there is any other kind)? Not a fan of laser shows? Do you have terrible foot odor that everyone in your zip code notices, except you?

If so, then kindly leave because you are a just a bad person and we don't like your kind 'round here.

Anyway, in the wake of Pedroia's extension of his now four-game long hit-streak Saturday night, and as the rest of the world waits with bated breath in his pursuit of what I've always considered his consecutive games with a base-hit record -- with Joe DiMaggio merely borrowing it at 56 games until Dustin felt the timing was right -- here is another quote from Ped-Rock a.k.a Pedey Pablo a.k.a Pedroya the Destroya regarding his "struggles" of late (Struggles?!? Incase you missed it, I said FOUR-GAME HIT-STREAK!):

"I work more than anybody in baseball. That's a fact. I'll definitely put the time in and make sure I have a great year. So 'Laser Show.' Relax again."

Dustin, if you're reading this, pleace accept my invitation to have a beer. How rad would that be? "Pedroia Surprises Blogger With a Beer." Mull that over and get back to me, my contact information can be found here: Logan Lietz

Tired of amusing Dustin Pedroia quotes (as if there is any other kind)? Not a fan of laser shows? Do you have terrible foot odor that everyone in your zip code notices, except you?

If so, then kindly leave because you are a just a bad person and we don't like your kind 'round here.

"I work more than anybody in baseball. That's a fact. I'll definitely put the time in and make sure I have a great year. So 'Laser Show.' Relax again."

Red Sox: Friday Quick Hits

Logan Lietz — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 04:15:05 -0000

Like an elephant walking onto a glass-covered disco floor wearing tap dance shoes during a moment of silence, the red-hot Red Sox aren't in the business of sneaking up on anyone these days.

Here are some quick stats, streaks and other notable tidbits following Friday's 11-0 win in Baltimore to jumpstart your weekend right.

Like an elephant walking onto a glass-covered disco floor wearing tap dance shoes during a moment of silence, the red-hot Red Sox aren't in the business of sneaking up on anyone these days.

Here are some quick stats, streaks and other notable tidbits following Friday's 11-0 win in Baltimore to jumpstart your weekend right.

Boston Red Sox: Team

The Red Sox are now a league-best 21-10 since May 3rd
Boston has won or split their last six series (opponents average record during that span: 30-24)
Since May 3rd, Boston has outscored their opponents 189-134 (6.1 - 4.3 per game average)
Only the Rays (36) and the Yankees (34) have more wins than the Red Sox's 32
Boston's "feeble" offense now ranks 2nd in the MLB in runs (305, 5.5/game), 1st in hits (540, 9.6/game), 2nd in doubles (132, 2.4/game), 2nd in home runs (77, 1.4/game), 1st in RBI (293, 5.2/game), 1st in total bases (913, 16.3/game), 3rd in walks (223, 4/game), T-2nd in OBP (.350), 2nd in SLG (.466) and 4th in team batting average (.275) -- all for the most part sans Mike Cameron and the team's biggest stolen base threat, Jacoby Ellsbury.

Boston Red Sox: Individual

Clay Buchholz- After Friday night's win in Baltimore, Buchholz is now 8-3 with a 2.39 ERA. His 8 wins are second in all of baseball only to Ubaldo Jimenez's 10, and tied for first in the American League with David Price. In his last 5 starts, Clay is 5-0 with a 0.99 ERA (36 1/3 innings pitched, 23 hits, 25 strikeouts, 12 walks, 4 earned runs). Buchholz has not allowed a run in 18 1/3 straight innings following his most recent shutout against Baltimore (the third shutout of his career, the last also coming against the Orioles when he no-hit them in 2007). Buchholz's next start will likely be on the road in Cleveland, which is encouraging considering the fact that Clay has won nine consecutive starts away from Fenway dating back to last August.
Jon Lester- After earning a win in his May 30th start against Kansas City, in which he threw seven innings of one-run baseball, Lester is now 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 2010 after a turbulent start to the season. In his previous eight starts dating back to April 23rd, Lester is 6-0 with a 1.42 ERA (56 2/3 innings, 9 earned runs, 31 hits, 19 walks, 63 strikeouts). His WHIP is 1.13, opponents are hitting just .195 against him and his 77 total strikeouts is tied for sixth in all of Major League Baseball.
David Ortiz- Big Papi, the American League's player of the month in May, is back in a big way. After hitting just .143 in April, Oritz followed that up by hitting .363 in May, to accompany 10 home runs, 24 runs batted in and an OPS of 1.211. The last time David had a month-long OPS that high was back in September, 2007 -- which was also the last time he finished a season with a .300+ batting average, 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI.
Daniel Bard- Bard has emerged as one of baseball's most dominant relief pitchers in 2010. To date (27 appearances), he is 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA and a WHIP of 0.85. Through 28 1/3 innings, Bard has allowed 6 earned runs on 15 hits, while striking out 31 and walking just 9 batters. Opponents are hitting .156 off the righty.
Victor Martinez- After a slow start, Martinez has come on strong as of late. The last ten games, V-Mart is hitting .543 (19-35) with a pair of home runs, eight RBI, nine runs scored and has drawn four walks while striking out just once. Even more impressive is his 2010 success while facing left-handed pitching -- on the year, Martinez is hitting .482 (27-56) and slugging .857 with a .508 OBP.
Adrian Beltre- Despite seemingly hitting off of one knee half the time, "Yo, Adrian" has been one of the hottest hitters in arguably baseball's hottest lineup. On the season, Beltre leads the Red Sox in batting average (.333), has 70 hits, 7 home runs and 40 RBI -- all to compliment his stellar play at third base despite having to constantly dodge incoming left fielders.
Kevin Youkilis- Recently referred to as the poster boy for a solid at-bat by Rays manager, Joe Maddon, Youkilis has been incredible all season long. Youk' is hitting .312 (59-189) with 11 home runs, 35 RBI and 48 runs scored. Aside from sporting a .448 on-base percentage and a .587 slugging percentage, Youkilis has even flashed an element of speed not normally seen in his game to counter the absence of Jacoby Ellsbury, recording 3 triples and has still yet to be thrown out attempting a steal (a perfect 1-1).

Other News, Notes

Originally reported Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox have been in contact with Boston regarding third baseman, Mike Lowell. After Chicago's everyday third baseman Mark Teahan was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a fractured finger, general manager Ken Williams placed a call to the Red Sox inquiring about Boston's second-string corner infielder. The Angels are also rumored to have shown interest in Lowell as a replacement for injured first baseman, Kendry Morales.
The schedule forecasts as more than fair for the Red Sox in the upcoming weeks. After finishing the current road stretch with six games against the last place Orioles and Indians, who have a combined record of 35-77, Boston returns to Fenway to begin a nine-game interleague homestand -- inluding three against the Phillies, who were beaten in two of three games by the Red Sox earlier this year in Philadelphia, three against the 21-34 Diamondbacks and the final three versus the Dodgers (which also marks the return of Manny Ramirez to Boston).
The 2010 MLB First-Year Player Draft is just days away (June 7-9). Boston has the 20th pick overall, awarded to them after Atlanta signed Billy Wagner this offseason. Rumors have the Red Sox selecting LSU pitching standout, Anthony Ranaudo, who is expected to command more than any team above Boston is willing to offer. Theo Epstein has always been high on college players with his early-round picks, so there could be a solid level of validity to the rumors. Ranaudo is a big 20-year-old righty, standing at 6'7" and weighing in at 227 lbs. According to reports, his fastball typically sits around 91-93 and can touch 95 on occasion; his changeup is average and sits around the 79-81 mph range. Ranaudo's third pitch is a sharp-biting curveball that, while still considered inconsistent, has been said to show plus potential as a put-away pitch. The one prominent negative in reports is the pitcher's tendency to leave his pitches, namely his fastball, up in the zone too often. Despite that, Ranaudo remains one of the draft's highest regarded hurlers.
Lastly, to address the elephant in the room -- that same tap dancing one from the first paragraph -- Dustin Pedroia's hit-streak now stands at four games in his pursuit of Joe DiMaggio's once considered untouchable record of 56 consecutive games with a hit. Godspeed, Pedey; just 53 more to go.