Fangraphs has all the cool shit. The X-axis is time in the 2012 season and the wOBA at the end of each game is a data point. Click any picture to embiggen. (Source link)

Mood Music - What's Beef by Notorious B.I.G.

Nick Swisher, master of double negatives. While there was no lasting damage from Monday night's collision, Swisher claimed that the tete-a-tete was a product of the volume at the stadium (this link also comes with a video, for those of you who like video) and said that he couldn't hear Curtis Granderson all night. The blame always goes to the corner outfielder on those plays, but in this particular instance, it looked like it could have been an easier play for Swisher. Yell louder, everyone. Except for you, Angels fans.

The Texas Rangers have signed free agent starting pitcher Roy Oswalt. It's probably good that they did, considering their myriad roster holes and disappointing start to the season.

Not to be outdone, the Yankees claimed reliever Ryota Igarashi. Igarashi posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.96 FIP in 21 innings for the Blue Jays AAA affiliate, so maybe he'll turn into Cory Wade. Or maybe he'll keep being Ryota Igarashi but he will pitch like Cory Wade. Unfortunately, every time he has been called up to the majors, he's been pretty terrible. Will his excellent minor league numbers be enough to challenge the roster security of an established stalwart like Cody Eppley? Only time will tell.

Hideki Matsui hit a home run in his first game back. He destroys cities.

TexMessage! has connected.

TexMessage!

Hey, gang! Any of you here yet?

TexMessage!

I guess not. I put hand-written notes in everyone's locker, so it shouldn't be long.

TexMessage!

I said that the first one to show up gets the first turn driving my new remote controlled car, so I'm sure they're all running to get here!

Big Tex has connected.

Big Tex

Sup, fuckstick.

TexMessage!

Oh geez. Not you again!

Big Tex

Deal with it, princess.

TexMessage!

But I'm about to meet with a bunch of my friends!

Big Tex

They aren't coming.

TexMessage!

How do you know, Mr. Smarty Pants?

Big Tex

Jeter is finger blasting a reporter. A-Rod is watching. Grandy is reading Aladdin to Cano. Swisher is naked and wrestling a bull. They're not coming.

TexMessage!

They're always getting up to such silly hi-jinks!

TexMessage!

What a great group of guys we have this year!

Big Tex

But I'm here. To fix this bullshit.

TexMessage!

I was going to tell the guys that I'm going to be putting in extra time in the cage every day!

TexMessage!

With enough hard work, I'm sure I can get my average back up near .300 and be a big offensive contributor!

Big Tex

I've seen tomatoes with more masculinity than you.

TexMessage!

Boy, the other half of my personality sure is fiesty!

Big Tex

We've been hitting like shit and this pansy attitude is one hundred percent to blame.

TexMessage!

But I've been so sick!

Big Tex

Oh, I'm sorry, sweetie. I didn't realize that we packed it in every time we got the sniffles. Do you want me to get you some hot tea?

TexMessage!

Oh boy! Would you? That sounds great!

Big Tex

That was a joke you pudgy faced fairy.

TexMessage!

Well, now that you're here, I've been meaning to run something by you.

TexMessage!

I know that you were trolling when you said before the season that you might think about laying down some bunts.

TexMessage!

But with how low our average has gotten, I was thinking about trying it.

Big Tex

Does it suck?

TexMessage!

Does what suck?

Big Tex

Having peaches the size of apple seeds?

TexMessage!

Peaches?

TexMessage!

I don't follow.

Big Tex

I bet you don't. But here's how it's going to go.

Big Tex

We're throwing out the juice press. We're throwing out the khakis and loafers.

Big Tex

And we are going to swing for the fences and hit some fucking dingers.

TexMessage!

Jeez. I don't know if that's such a good idea. I've been worried that I've been becoming too one dimensional at the plate.

Big Tex

I wasn't asking.

Big Tex

Just watch what happens.

Mood Music - Cell Therapy by Goodie Mob

At Baseball Nation, Jeff Sullivan wrote a cool article on which teams have been getting favorable and unfavorable strike calls. By comparing to a Pitch F/X strike zone, you can determine if a team is getting more or less strikes called for them than one would expect. These results can then be used to make inferences about pitch framing and receiving.

(Mike Fast's article from Baseball Prospectus that started this whole thing)

In Sullivan's article, the Yankees have had the third best rate of "stealing" strikes, behind only the Brewers and Braves. Using the Pitch F/X data on Fangraphs, I took things back a few more seasons to see if there was a way to isolate the impact of different catchers.

From this data, we can calculate the number of strikes that we would expect, given the Pitch F/X strike zone.

In 2012, Yankees pitchers have thrown 6483 pitches and they have been inside the Pitch F/X zone 47.9% of the time. So, by multiplying the two, we get 3105 pitches in the strike zone, leaving 3378 pitches outside the strike zone. Of those 3378 pitches, 28.7% of them were swung at, giving an additional 970 strikes. By adding the two, we can conclude that the Yankees pitchers would have thrown 4075 strikes if the zone was called precisely by the Pitch F/X data.*

*If you're checking my math, all of this is subject to small rounding errors.

As the Yankees pitchers have actually thrown 4106 strikes, they have come out thirty-one strikes ahead. There are a number of things that could contribute to that. Bad officiating, pitchers with consistently good control, Russell Martin's receiving, and inaccuracies in the Pitch F/X data all seem reasonable. Going back a few more years (click the table to embiggen or if cut off):

There is not only a correlation, but a strong correlation to Jorge Posada being behind the plate and truly dreadful results. I hate to draw black and white conclusions, but it looks for all the world like he really was a disaster at receiving those last few years. Sorry, Jorge :(

Thankfully, things seem to be much better with Russell Martin behind the plate, which is good. With the way that the front office seems to think so highly of his catching ability, it is encouraging to actually see some numbers that support that.

Mood Music - Pathway to the Moon by Pathfinder

Remember Joe Torre? When napping in the dugout and ruining the careers of relievers stopped being a cute, quirky Torre-ism and started to actually bother people, he fell out of favor with the front office. Some early playoff exits may have contributed to that too. Actually, some early playoff exits were why he was eventually not brought back and everyone knew it. Not any real issues with his managerial tendencies (although, as I said, you could find them) or specific decisions, but a general feeling that the team hadn't been going all the way and should get a new manager.

It is often said that managers get too much of the credit for the success of the team and too much of the blame for their failures, but that's the nature of the business. We hold leaders and figureheads accountable for results that they likely had little to do with. Whatever your thoughts are on Joe Torre the manager, he was probably doing about the same thing in 1998 and in 2007. It's hard to believe that he suddenly became the problem, but it's also hard to believe that he was a real driving force behind four championships. He was just the manager.

Torre probably had a late hook on his starters, he probably overused some middle relievers, and he probably had his favorites in the clubhouse. When he was replaced, the general feeling was that Joe Girardi could improve on some of those things. Girardi was expected to be a better tactician, but the real question was how he would adapt to being the manager of the New York Yankees.

Joe Torre had managed the Yankees for twelve seasons, presided over a dynasty, and built up a ton of goodwill with the fans and the media. What if Girardi couldn't get out of Torre's shadow? What if he couldn't handle the relentless questions, expectations, and national attention that comes along with the job? Joe Torre had a reputation for handling all of this with a calm and collected manner. Joe Girardi had one year of managerial experience that included a falling out with the front office.

But, now in his fifth season as manager, can anyone recall Girardi having trouble with the media? Or any division in the clubhouse? Or Girardi ever failing to go to bat for someone on the roster*? Of the original concerns with Girardi taking over for Torre, it's hard to say that he has done anything but wildly exceeded expectations.

*And not just the big names either. It's easy to show support and confidence in CC Sabathia or Robinson Cano when they have a few bad games. It's a lot harder to go to bat for Eduardo Nunez and Freddy Garcia when everyone wants them run out of town.

I've been known to criticize his in-game managing. I wish his decision to pull a starting pitcher didn't revolve around the one-hundred pitch idea. I wish that he did a better job of mapping the most important outs late in games to the best relievers. I wish that a pitcher pitching well would be left in the game instead of being pulled for a slight matchup advantage. But, in each of those things, there is a sound philosophy of maximizing the quality of the pitching.

Starting pitchers are conditioned based on pitch count, and you could reasonably expect for their performance to start to deteriorate and their risk of injury to increase when they get too far beyond a certain number of pitches. You can't always predict when the most important outs are going to come, and you'd expect guys to pitch better when they can warm up and prepare with a solid idea of when they're going to be used. Boone Logan and Clay Rapada are much better against lefties. If you have them in your bullpen and want to get some innings and production out of them, use them against lefties.

Part of being a manager is making decisions that there is never going to be a consensus about. I'll happily take a manager who seems to have a logical and consistent approach to his decision making, even if I would sometimes do things a little bit differently. Especially when you consider the fact that he almost always has more information than we do.

Maybe Boone Logan threw a really great bullpen session two days ago. Maybe during the last offensive inning, CC looked noticeably tired in the dugout. Maybe their scouting has tipped them off that Matt Wieters is really having trouble hitting sliders from left handers. There are any number of things that make most strategic decisions nuanced judgement calls and not slam dunks with obviously right and obviously wrong answers.

As of now, Girardi's approach to winning games and leading the team have been fine with me. Dusty Baker thinks that walks clog up the bases, so it could always be a lot worse.

Hello.

This doesn't seem right at all. Not only are you people winning in the raw scores, the peripherals seem to indicate that you should be winning by even more. I suspect league-wide tampering and collusion.

Rankings points are calculated by awarding sixteen points for first place, fifteen points for second place, etc.

Luck +/- is calculated by subtracting the ranking in the standings from the ranking in the points. So, if you're fourth in points and third in the standings, you're getting slightly lucky and will have a +1 Luck +/-. So, a positive Luck +/- will indicate that the team has been getting lucky, while a negative Luck +/- will indicate that the team has been getting unlucky.

If your Luck +/- is -6, you're Sandy. Sandy, if you've been practicing ancient spells of black magic, I suggest that you stop. If you haven't, I suggest that you start. Or maybe it's just retribution for sullying the name of His Intangibles.

Philip Humber is currently on pace for five perfect games this season, if we assume thirty starts. If he gets even halfway to that projection, look for Catch These Men to be on the move.

Mood Music - Life For Revenge by Dark Moor

This post is probably more interesting than meaningful, but that could be why you're here. That other thing that you're doing can wait another five minutes for something interesting to read on the internet. I mean, the post is called Good News with an exclamation point. Who doesn't like good news? Probably communists. Communists hate good news but love exclamation points. This post will be a mixed bag for any of you who happen to be communists.

I don't like pure DH splits. For his career, Player X is hitting ___ when they play in the field and ____ when they DH is almost certainly going to introduce a substantial selection bias. The vast majority of players do not spend a lot of time DHing in the prime of their careers when they're having their most productive offensive seasons. If they do get more than a game or two, it's likely the result of injury. So, I would assert that -- in a majority of cases -- players will put up worse numbers as a DH not entirely as a result of not playing the field, but also as a function of being old or injured.

But, lots of players really don't like the way DHing takes them out of the action of the game. Jorge Posada was famous for it. While I would guess that most hitters would regress to their true hitting levels once they had enough time to get used to DHing every day, I could definitely see different players handling it differently. It seems logical that some guys would take to DHing better than other guys. Jorge Posada really hated DHing. Probably because when he was a DH, he would be on the bench to hear everyone else laughing at how the back up catcher was so much better on defense.

Continue reading this post »

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K has connected.

AnAIMBombFromARod has connected.

CGrand14 has connected.

AnAIMBombFromARod

You guys like my new screen name?

CGrand14

Very clever, Alex. I wish I had done something like that with Grandyman, because fans sometimes call me The Grandyman.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Getting a new screen name every week doesn't make you cool.

AnAIMBombFromARod

Hater. I complimented you at least twice when you came out with 'Mr. Cocktober.'

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Well, yeah. But after the first five, I think the whole A ___ From A-Rod thing is probably played out.

AnAIMBombFromARod

I think it's cool and the fans totally love it.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

There is absolutely no way you weren't home schooled.

CGrand14

Personally, I think that home schooling can be a great option for those who seek an alternative to the continually falling standards of public education. With the regulations and constraints that are always being placed on school systems, not to mention crippling budget cuts in recent years, there's something to be said for eschewing the system entirely.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

I seriously give up with the two of you. Where the hell is Cano?

CGrand14

I spoke with him earlier, but he did not happen to mention if he had plans for the evening.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Did you make a trail of coke and hookers leading to his laptop like I told you to?

AnAIMBombFromARod

Yes, Captain.

CGrand14

You guys have already done this trick to him at least three times. Eventually, he has to catch on.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

lol no

AnAIMBombFromARod

He can't count past ten unless he takes his shoes off. He won't figure it out.

AnAIMBombFromARod

But what is the plan for avoiding Tex?

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

I wrote 'Flip this card over for a free prize!' on both sides of an index card and put it in his locker.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

That gives us at least an hour.

AmgioCano has connected.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Alright, here he is.

AmgioCano

Hola!

CGrand14

Hello, Robinson. How are you?

AmgioCano

Fun time!

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

But, seriously. You're all here because we need to talk.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

This whole getting bossed by the Orioles and Royals shit?

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

It needs to stop.

CGrand14

I agree, Derek. We've had some tough injuries and it's a long season, but the offense as a whole really needs to step it up.

AnAIMBombFromARod

I've been taking enough walks to keep a solid OBP. The power will come.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

I'm hitting .400.

CGrand14

I've been able to put some good at-bats together and hit for power.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Robbie?

AmgioCano

Hitting no good?

AnAIMBombFromARod

No.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

No.

AmgioCano

:(

AmgioCano

I try harder tomorrow

CGrand14

That's really all that we can ask for, Robinson. While the results might not always be perfect, I think that your ebullient attitude can be a real asset in turning things around for a second half renaissance of great hitting.

AmgioCano

???

AmgioCano

I go back to party now.

AmgioCano has disconnected.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

Well, I guess that's the best we can do.

AnAIMBombFromARod

Check out the new photos I put up on my Facebook page.

AnAIMBombFromARod

me-in-monday-scarf.jpg

AnAIMBombFromARod

Wait, don't click that.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K

This is why we keep losing.

CGrand14

I like scarves.

MotorboatCaptainDJ3K has disconnected.

AnAIMBombFromARod

Well, I guess that's it for the meeting.

AnAIMBombFromARod has disconnected.

CGrand14 has disconnected.

TexMessage! has connected.

TexMessage!

Alright, one of you jokesters owes me a whole mess of prizes!

The first pitch to Nolan Reimold was a swinging strike at the knees.

Hiroki Kuroda had thrown seven great innings and the Yankees were clinging to an Eric Chavez home run and a one run lead. But maybe clinging isn't the right word. Other teams with other closers cling to one run leads in the ninth inning. This would be the sixteenth season of ninth inning bliss.

The second pitch to Nolan Reimold was a broken bat dribbler to second base.

Robinson Cano fielded and threw to first. One out. Reimold was fooled on the pitch, tried to check his swing, and ended up hitting the ball on the very end of the bat. If you wanted to describe how Mariano Rivera managed to be so good for so long, this would probably be a good place to start. With great location and uncanny late life, it was almost impossible to get the fat part of the bat to the ball. It's not a complicated game and he wasn't a complicated pitcher. He threw cutters. He prevented you from hitting the ball hard.

The first pitch to J.J. Hardy was a ball low and away.

There are bad strikes -- pitches right down the middle -- and there are good balls -- "pitchers pitches" that are outside the strike zone but tough to hit. He threw a lot of strikes and a lot of good balls. The first pitch to Hardy was a few inches outside and a few inches low. If you're going to miss, that's a pretty good way to do it. He probably would have told you that he should have put it on the corner and gotten ahead of a good hitter like Hardy.

The second pitch to J.J. Hardy was a ball below the knees.

You never really got worried when he got behind a batter. If he hadn't thrown any strikes yet, it seemed like a conscious decision to stay out of the zone. And if he needed a strike, he'd throw one. He only walked eight batters last season and he had trained you to think that he'd make the tying run hit his way on.

The third pitch to J.J. Hardy was a foul ball behind home plate.

Ahead in the count and challenged with a pitch at the knees on the outer third, Hardy took a big swing. Hardy hit thirty home runs last year and this was Yankees Stadium; with one swing, it could be a tie game. On the mound, he knew it too. He had only given up sixty-five home runs in over 1200 innings, but all that it takes is one mistake. One flat cutter.

The fourth pitch to J.J. Hardy was a single to right center field.

This was a mistake. Russell Martin's target was low and away, but he threw Hardy a letter high cutter that was slapped the other way for a solid base hit. People have used and will use a lot of superlatives to describe him. Unhittable. Unbeatable. The greatest. This was a bad pitch and Hardy jumped on it, but judging him on his mistakes -- as infrequent as they might have been -- could be most illuminating of all. In eighteen seasons and over a thousand appearances, he threw thirteen wild pitches. He walked a batter to lead off an inning forty-two times.

The first pitch to Nick Markakis was a strike on the outside corner.

In his career, he had thrown a first pitch strike to nearly two out of every three batters that he faced. It's frustrating watching pitchers fall behind and labor to stay out of their own way. He was almost never frustrating; more of a relaxing reliever than a cardiac closer. He would tell you that he made a mistake falling behind Hardy and was glad to be able to pitch ahead to a good hitter like Markakis.

The second pitch to Nick Markakis was a ball off the outside corner.

Greg Maddux used to do that. He'd get a strike called on the outside corner and then he'd throw the same pitch two inches further outside. If that was called a strike, he'd throw it two more inches outside. Hitting the glove every time and executing his pitches, he would be stealing strikes from both sides of the plate by the third inning. This one wasn't a strike though, it leveled the count at 1-1. They say that a 1-1 pitch decides how the rest of the at bat is going to go.

The third pitch to Nick Markakis was a ground ball double play. Yankees win.

Mood Music - Bron-Yr-Aur by Led Zeppelin

Bronson Arroyo made thirty-two starts last season, Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland, and Tim Wakefield started important games down the stretch for the Red Sox, and the Yankees are going to give Phil Hughes every opportunity to cling to the rotation. Starting pitching is hard to find. Competent starting is even harder to find.

I might not always agree with the mantra of pitching being the key to a championship or ninety percent of the game or whatever else, but it's certainly apparent that starting pitching is a scarce resource. And scarce resources have inherent value. If Phil Hughes gets booted from the rotation to the bullpen, he would figure to slot somewhere into Cory Wade territory, behind Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, and, if things continue to progress, Joba Chamberlain.

The fifth right handed option in your bullpen is close to worthless. The third right handed option in your bullpen might be worthless too. Can anyone justify to me that Rafael Soriano is currently playing a major role on this team?

Giving up on Hughes the starter is a last resort, not something to do when you get frustrated with his mouthbreathing bullshit and just want to see someone else. And while he is still showing some flashes of being able to hack it (he has) and there are no obviously superior replacements (there aren't, yet), you have to keep rolling him out there.

While it's acknowledged that it's easier to pitch out of the bullpen for a few reasons -- the fastball plays up, you can limit yourself to one or two different types of off-speed pitches, and batters only see you once or twice instead of three or four times -- the strategy component is often overlooked. Lineups are set and batters are prepared to face the starting pitcher, not anyone out of the bullpen.

When Freddy Garcia takes the mound, the batters in the opposing lineup will likely be loaded with lefties, guys who hit breaking balls well, and guys who have hit Garcia well. Whatever the manager can do to make his lineup harder for Garcia to navigate through is what he is most likely to see. And the batters themselves will watch tape and go over scouting reports in preparation for facing Garcia.

This doesn't happen when David Phelps or Cory Wade come out of the bullpen. No one is building a lineup or focusing their pregame preparation on facing a bullpen long man. There are a few moves that can be made and scouting reports that can quickly be read from a binder(!), but Phelps and Wade are still essentially facing Garcia's lineup. I'd have to think that matters too.

So, I have a hard time buying into the results of long relief. Someone looking good in long relief in the majors carries about as much clout as someone pitching well in the AAA rotation. It's promising, but it's not always a fair indication of what will happen in the major league rotation.

Freddy Garcia has planted himself pretty firmly under the bus and doesn't seem likely to surface soon. With good reason. Even in only a four start sample, a 12.51 ERA and 42.3 line drive% are enough to see that batters have not been thrown off balance by his mix of pitches, the key to his success in 2011. Even if about half of those line drives are really more like solidly hit fly balls -- which is the reason to always be wary of LD% -- those results are still shockingly terrible.

But, even with all of that, Freddy's 5.51 FIP / 3.94 xFIP looks a lot like David Phelps' 5.66 FIP / 4.09 xFIP. While, at this point, neither is a true indication of their talent levels and it makes sense for Freddy to figure out what the hell is going on somewhere else, I have to wonder how much better the Yankees really are going to be going forward. It's pretty close to inevitable that Freddy would start to figure things out and improve; it's pretty close to inevitable that Phelps will take a step back in his new, more difficult role.

Which is not to give a vote of no confidence in Phelps or to rain on the recent Phelps parade - which I have long felt was overdue given his consistent success in the minors. Phelps has flashed pitches of major league starting quality and, given the opportunity, I think he has a solid chance to eventually stick in the rotation. If not here then somewhere else. But I also think that the growing pains of a rookie starting pitcher being thrown into the rotation in the middle of the season might start to look a lot like Freddy Garcia's aging pains.

At this point, I'm fine with giving Phelps a shot and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. It hasn't been working with Freddy and it might work with Phelps. The Yankees don't need Phelps to be particularly great, they need him to be a non-disaster. He can probably do that most times out. But, just this once, let's try to keep our expectations grounded with a rookie making his first starts in the major leagues.

Mood Music - Frankenstein by The Edgar Winters Group

Frankenstein doesn't have words. I was talking about the rest of this post, which will. My wordless posts are instrumentals?

Obvious flaws with the RBI statistic:

- Outside of solo home runs, scoring a run is a team effort, but an RBI is attributed to a single player.
- Players get different number of opportunities to drive in runs.
- Situational hitting is a specious concept. For an individual batter, the percentage of his hits that happen to come with runners on base is at least influenced by luck.

For reasons like these, it's usually best to avoid giving much weight to an RBI total if you're looking for a fair way to compare or evaluate. But, it seems to be based in a worthwhile concept. Doing things at the plate that cause runs to score should be the goal of the batter every time up. While still limited in scope, there should be a way to fill some of the holes in the RBI concept by simply normalizing the opportunity that each batter gets.

Using Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix, we can find an average value for each batting situation. Example: With runners on first and second and one out, the expected value of runs scored in the inning is 0.963 runs. Last year, Alex Rodriguez came to the plate in that situation twenty times.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Using Fangraphs' calculation of the statistic, both Brett Gardner and Albert Pujols finished the 2011 season with 5.1 Wins Above Replacement (Gardner, Pujols). While the first reaction is probably "Pujols is better, so WAR is bullshit," this is one of the reasons why I find sabermetrics, and by extenstion, WAR, to be so additive to any baseball discussion.

Statistics should provide a way to measure some part of what happens on the field free of bias and preconceived notions. Albert Pujols doesn't get any extra points because he's Albert Pujols the megastar; Brett Gardner doesn't get any extra points because the Yankees are always on TV and have a lot of fans. They both start at zero, and after a 162 game season they ended up at the same number.*

*Mike Cameron has a higher career WAR than Jim Rice, and Joe Posnanski tackles it beautifully here.

It's obviously an apples to oranges comparison between a speedy slap hitting outfielder and a power hitting first baseman, but, if nothing else, it should challenge the way that you think about value. Consider the following facts about first baseman and left fielders who logged over 500 plate appearances in 2011:

• Fourteen first basemen and seven left fielders had on OPS of over .800.
• Fourteen first basemen and five left fielders hit more than 25 home runs.
• Eighteen first basemen and nine left fielders had a wRC+ of 110 or higher.

While this leads to the obvious conclusion that first base is a more offense heavy position than left field, it is intended to underscore the incredible era of mashing first baseman that we are currently enjoying. With established guys like Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, Gonzalez, Fielder, and Teixeira, as well as rising stars like Hosmer, Trumbo, Freeman, Davis, and Goldschmidt, there really is not a premium on first base offense.

Continue reading this post »

If you like podcasts, this one's for you. Because this is a podcast.

Here's a direct link too: Pinstripe Alley Podcast with me, IGYAR, and WWJD

GMCa$hDaddy has connected.

JoeCool28 has connected.

XOlilSteinOX has connected.

GMCa$hDaddy

Ready to get started?

XOlilSteinOX

Actually, do you think we could push this until next week?

JoeCool28

No, we're starting now.

XOlilSteinOX

But...

JoeCool28

If I have to spend another season with shitty pitching because you can't put down the blow for ten minutes...

GMCa$hDaddy

Dammit, Hal.

XOlilSteinOX

Fine. But one of you dinks is paying for the massage I have to reschedule.

GMCa$hDaddy

I know for a fact that Alex doesn't even charge.

JoeCool28

Can we PLEASE talk about getting the team some pitching?

GMCa$hDaddy

K. Who do you want?

JoeCool28

I need pitchers on the staff who really know how to pitch.

XOlilSteinOX

"Staff"

GMCa$hDaddy

I already resigned Freddy. What more do you want?

JoeCool28

Someone with big game experience who really knows how to pitch in New York.

GMCa$hDaddy

Oh fuck. Not this shit again.

JoeCool28

Can't we just see if he's online?

DandyAndy has been invited.

DandyAndy has connected.

DandyAndy

Hey, y'all!

GMCa$hDaddy

Hey buddy. How would you like to quit reenacting Brokeback Mountain and come pitch for the most badass team in professional sports?

DandyAndy

That's offensive. No.

Dr. Hankenstein has connected.

Dr. Hankenstein

TEN MILLION DOLLARS!

GMCa$hDaddy

Aw shit

JoeCool28

How the hell did he get in here?

GMCa$hDaddy

I thought we had him blocked.

XOlilSteinOX

It's like he's an ogre or something.

Dr. Hankenstein

BRING MORE POP TARTS TO MY CAVE I ONLY HAVE 7 LEFT

Dr. Hankenstein has been blocked.

GMCa$hDaddy

How does he go through Pop Tarts so quickly?

DandyAndy

You guys, was he serious about the ten million dollars?

GMCa$hDaddy

Would it make you want to come back?

DandyAndy

Nah. I'm out. There's someone here who wants to talk to you though.

DandyAndy has disconnected.

GMCa$hDaddy

That went terribly.

JoeCool28

:(

XOlilSteinOX

Who do you think he was talking about that wanted to talk to us?

GMCa$hDaddy

I don't care. So long as it's not...

TexMessage! has joined.

TexMessage!

Hey team! Who's excited for 2012!

GMCa$hDaddy

Dammit. I'm leaving.

GMCa$hDaddy has disconnected.

TexMessage!

Is he being a Negative Nancy again, Joey?

XOlilSteinOX

Is there something we can do for you? We're kind of busy.

TexMessage!

I just wanted to check in with my good friends!

TexMessage!

And make sure that you had all tried the raw fruit juice that I left in the lobby!

JoeCool28

Yeah... It was great.

TexMessage!

Thanks!

TexMessage!

So! Who wants to come over tonight and play Jenga?

JoeCool28

That sounds great, pal. Unfortunately, we're all really busy trying to find new pitchers.

TexMessage!

OK! Good luck guys! #28 here we come!

TexMessage! has disconnected.

XOlilSteinOX

When Brian comes back, remind me to fire him for signing that man.

JoeCool28

Rafael Soriano.

XOlilSteinOX

What?

JoeCool28

Nothing.

XOlilSteinOX

Oh I get it. Fuck you.

GMCa$hDaddy has connected.

GMCa$hDaddy

He gone yet?

XOlilSteinOX

You're fired.

GMCa$hDaddy

No, I'm not.

XOlilSteinOX

Why not?

GMCa$hDaddy

Because I just got Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda.

JoeCool28

I love you.

XOlilSteinOX

How could you do that without even talking to us or giving us any kind of warning?

GMCa$hDaddy

Whatever. Are we all good here?

DandyAndy has connected.

DandyAndy

Guys, I change my mind. I want to come back.

GMCa$hDaddy

Oh you have got to be kidding me.

DandyAndy

What?

GMCa$hDaddy

We asked you like twelve seconds ago.

JoeCool28

ANDYYYYYYY

DandyAndy

Let's go to work! Where's my ten million dollars?

XOlilSteinOX

I don't even know if we have any money left.

XOlilSteinOX

My asshole of a GM acquires people out of the blue without saying anything.

GMCa$hDaddy

lookatallthefucksigive.gif

JoeCool28

ANDYYYYYYY

XOlilSteinOX

How about two and a half million. Minor league deal.

DandyAndy

Do I get to keep my True Yankee Gold Card membership?

XOlilSteinOX

Yes, of course.

GMCa$hDaddy

I hate this team.

JoeCool28

ANDYYYYYYY

TexMessage! has connected.

TexMessage!

Hey guys! I heard that we got a bunch of pitchers!

XOlilSteinOX

Brian acquired Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda and Andy decided to unretire.

TexMessage!

Oh wow! #28 will be ours for sure this year!

TexMessage!

Hey! Now that you guys have finished all of your work you can come over for Jenga!

GMCa$hDaddy has disconnected.

XOlilSteinOX has disconnected.

JoeCool28 has disconnected.

DandyAndy has disconnected.

TexMessage!

You guys still there?

Via Fangraphs.

This was actually recorded on Sunday night, but we experienced hellacious technical difficulties uploading this beast. IGYAR still has some work to do to make this jive with the iTunes machine and whatever else you kids are using, but feel free to listen to our tomfoolery by clicking the arrow below.

Here's a direct link too: The Pinstripe Alley Podcast with IGYAR, WWJD, and me

Mood Music - Spanish Castle Magic by Jimi Hendrix

A lot of stupid* things have been written about pitching to the score, causing the majority of saber nerds like me to put the guy who pitches to the score in the same pile as the twenty-game winner and the middle-of-the-order RBI man. This post could be some more stupid writing on the subject, as there's really no way to directly measure or definitively prove anything.

*Jack Morris had a 3.98 ERA in games in which he had two or fewer runs of support (3.90 career ERA). Batters OPS'd .695 against him in 2861 career high leverage plate appearances (.693 career OPS against). Feel free to continue casually slamming him when pitching to the score is inevitably used to justify his inclusion in The Special Museum.

What bothers me the most about the way pitching to the score has been classically presented is very similar to the issue that I take with the clutch moniker. Let's say that Alex Rodriguez hits a home run in a blowout game. You can't put a home run in the fridge and save it for later, so wouldn't you want a player to be doing everything they can no matter what the score is?

Conversely, if a pitcher is going to give up five runs because they've been spotted a six run lead, isn't that a bad thing? Shouldn't they be trying to avoid letting the other team back in the game, not mailing it in because they've got a little bit of a cushion?

The idea that pitchers actively control their effectiveness based on the game situation seems to be suspect. And if it exists at all, the proper response would seem to be bonking them on the head and telling them to stop half-assing it in blowouts, not glorifying them for being savvy veterans.

With all of that said, I have no doubt that pitching to the score is a real thing. As much as it can be said that every player should be giving maximum effort at all times, there is no way that there won't be lapses. It would also make sense that these lapses will be more common in 9-1 games in August. In addition to somewhat murky human element conjecture, there will be changes in strategy that are a function of the score. Pitchers being left in or taken out, defensive substitutions, defensive strategies, aggressiveness on the basepaths, and throwing Jose Bautista a 3-1 fastball seem like obvious functions of the score.

I bring this up because in 2011, Yankees starters pitched to a 3.41 ERA in games when they got two or fewer runs of support (4.18 ERA otherwise), and batters OPS'd .652 against them in 1301 high leverage plate appearances (.721 OPS against overall). This probably means nothing, but it might not!

Continue reading this post »

Mood Music - Stranglehold by Ted Nugent

The concept that NL teams tend to favor slick fielding middle infielders and look for bigger bats in the outfield is supported, but there doesn't seem to be much else in terms of a pattern. The average NL position player provided a very comparable amount of production to the average AL position player. However, because of flimsy rationalizations about strategy, pitchers batting leads to an entirely different run environment.

In particular, the NL West has the reputation of being dominated by the pitchers, with strong starting rotations throttling weak offenses in giant ballparks. Conversely, the AL East is home to some high powered offenses and Yankee Stadium is a well known launching pad. To what extent is this true? Can the differences between the leagues be better articulated? How can we expect Hiroki Kuroda, who has pitched exclusively for the Dodgers, to translate to the Yankees? I will give satisfactory answers to none of these questions.

Continue reading this post »

Methodology
In 2011, the Yankees bullpen had a 3.12 ERA, with the average for all pitching in the AL being a 4.08 ERA. That is 31% better than league average, so the bullpen posted a 131 ERA+. The 2011 Yankees scored 867 runs and allowed 657, which using Pythagorean Winning Percentage translates to an expected 101 wins. They actually won 97 games, which means that they under-performed their expectation by four wins, or a -4 on the graph. I did this for every season from 1990-2011 and put them on a scatter plot.

Continue reading this post »

When taking a break from the ritualistic Devil worship and puppy slaughter required of all Yankees fans, I've often passed the time by writing about Jesus Montero. That made more sense when he was a Yankee than it does now, but I thought it would be a cool way to get closure and maybe you're not completely tired of this story by now.

I've organized what I want to cover into some headings and sub-headings, please forgive the tackiness.

Offense

Power - Dingers to left! Dingers to center! Dingers to right!

You've probably heard Montero's opposite field power advertised as his number one tool and the reason why scouts are so in love with his bat. At this point in his career, I'd expect a lot more gap-to-gap power* than majestic home runs, as he tends to drive the ball more than lift it.

* Normally, there is a trade off between a stadium's friendliness to home runs and friendliness to doubles and triples. Big outfields take away home runs but yield big gaps; three of the top five triples** parks in baseball in 2011 were Comerica Park, Kauffman Stadium, and Petco Park, all considered to be pitcher's parks. Safeco Field was rated as the hardest park in baseball to hit a double in 2011 (.768), and is consistently pitcher friendly in doubles, triples, and home runs. I have two theories: 1) The ball doesn't carry. 2) Gutierrez.

** Jesus Montero hitting a triple against live human defenders. It could happen. On the other hand, probably not.

What I'm trying to say is that Montero hit almost twice as many doubles as home runs in the minors, and Safeco could take a bite out of that, especially with the way he runs. In a month with the Yankees, he was twice held to a single on line drives off the right field wall. That sucks, but he does hit the ball hard, and you can expect some more of those to turn into home runs as his power develops.

Contact and Discipline - Montero has seen a steady increase in K% moving up from AA to AAA to the majors, and he's definitely going to need to reduce the 24.6% rate that he posted in his September cup of coffee. Joe Girardi:

What I saw last year, I was really impressed with the adjustments that he made. Where he'd see a pitcher for the first time and he might strike him out with a curveball, the next time, he was going to get him. You know, he'd hit that curveball and he'd understand what the pitcher was trying to do to him.

Chart:

Conjecture: To make a limited comparison, I think that Jesus Montero has a very similar plate approach to Alex Rodriguez. He wants to extend his arms and use right center, but will guess inside and look to pull the ball if he thinks he's going to be challenged inside. However, being able to drive the ball on the outside corner and being able to elevate low fastballs make him susceptible to breaking balls that start in the same window and end up in the dirt.

Although it didn't appear much in this chart of a month in New York, as a plus fastball hitter, Montero has also shown a proclivity to chase high fastballs. If there was one area in his offensive package (outside of speed) that Montero could really stand to improve, being more selective on slop in the dirt and letter high fastballs would be a quantum leap forward. Easier said than done, but in the middle of last season, Montero's hitting really took off after a few quotes about being more selective and waiting for "the most beautiful pitch" instead of being as aggressive early in the count.

Leaving any foundation of fact and diving even further into conjecture, I like to watch players argue balls and strikes. Nick Swisher will complain about balls right down the middle and I know (guess) that he's not seeing the ball very well when he does. Montero drew a healthy number of walks (10.1 BB%) and the few times that he looked unhappy about strike calls, they seemed to be borderline pitches. For what that's worth (not much) and just from watching him, I'd say that he's got a pretty decent idea of where the strike zone is.

Splits - A lot was made of how Montero hit lefties much better than righties last season, but I wouldn't buy into it too much. Before 2011, Montero had no noticeable platoon split and all four of his home runs in the major leagues came off of right handers.

Baserunning - He's slow. And he's a rookie. He made two baserunning gaffes in September, getting nailed straying too far off of second against the Mariners (that's you) and trying to advance from second to third on a ground ball to the right side against the Red Sox. That could very well mean nothing, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Defense

As a function of Montero having only caught twenty-two major league innings and the continually changing understanding and valuing of catching defense, most of what I can offer is a non-expert opinion. Quoting Matthew:

By positional values, the difference between a catcher and a DH is 30 runs over a full season. Thirty flippin' runs!

By that logic, I don't think that Montero would cost the team thirty runs with his defense, as a -3 win catcher would have to be historically atrocious. Even factoring in the Mike Fast pitch framing stuff, it seems unlikely that Montero as an individual would not be more valuable as a catcher than as a DH. Whether or not that makes the most sense for the Mariners as a whole is likely dependent on how everyone else is doing.

As some dude with a television and the internet, here is my appraisal of what I've seen in the minors, majors, and Spring Training:

The biggest drawback to Montero's ability to catch is his size. While there are some catchers of comparable size who have played the position effectively (Joe Mauer 6'5 / 230, Matt Wieters 6'5 / 230, Brian McCann 6'3 / 230), those guys tend to have builds that are more lanky than stocky. Montero is every bit of 230 pounds and struggles with some of the agility aspects of catching, especially pitch blocking.

Spiked breaking balls or pitches that badly miss their target and require a quick reaction are where you're most likely to see him struggle, but his hands, receiving ability, and framing ability seem to all at least be passable. His one plus ability as a defender is a big arm, but he's often behind the clock with the amount of time that it takes for him to gather the pitch, unwind his body, and release the the throw.

Overall, I'd rate him as a below average major league catcher, with the ability to develop into an average major league catcher. He will likely never be great with balls in the dirt, but his arm should give him the ability to be a decent deterrent to the running game.

The only other position that I could see him shifting to is first base, and wouldn't at all be surprised to see him do the Santana, Napoli C/1B/DH thing at some point in his career. There was a contingent of Yankees fans who wanted to stick him in the short right field of Yankee Stadium. Not happening. I would say "not happening" to third base as well, but slightly less emphatically than right field.

Other Important Stuff

He's very smiley. He always talks about having fun when he plays and telling jokes to pitchers on the mound to get them to relax. He might just be a troll.

Enjoy the dingers(!) and I'll try and take care of Pineda.

Mood Music - Girl is on My Mind by The Black Keys

Cardinals Presumed Favorites for Roy Oswalt
In the few seconds it took you to read that headline, the favorite changed from the Cardinals to the Red Sox to the Rangers and then back to the Cardinals.

Edwin Jackson is still out there too
He should have been a lefty.

The Phillies Signed Juan Pierre
If you can't teach your kid how to throw left handed, teach him to 1) hit home runs or 2) slap and run his way to an empty batting average.

Fielder and Pujols coming to the AL shift the balance of power
Possible fat joke?

Would you sign Ryan Zimmerman to a massive deal?
Injuries led to a down 2011, but Zimmerman posted back to back seven win seasons before that and is still just 27 years old.

Tim Lincecum turned down a stupidly large amount of money
Apparently, Lincecum turned down a contract extension worth "at least $100 million" from the San Francisco Giants in the hopes of making an even bigger score as a free agent. That's certainly a risky move, as pitchers are always one arm injury away from being useless and Lincecum has shouldered a pretty heavy workload, but he did manage to hedge his bet with a nice two-year $40.5MM insurance policy.

Mood Music - Forty Six & 2 by Tool

Kuroda on joining the Yankees
"They have an incredible tradition. They contend for the championship every year. I wanted to play for a team like that. When you get to my age, you don’t know how much longer you can pitch and I wanted to experience that before my career ended."

When Will the Killer B's arrive?
Probably not that soon, giving us some more time with the nickname. Come back to us, Andrew Brackman.

Over / Under 30 A-Bombs! in 2012
As of this moment*, 55% of the vote on SportsNation has A-Rod topping 30 home runs in 2012, which seems incredibly optimistic.

Poll

Over/Under 30 home runs from A-Rod in 2012

66%

Over - I believe in the power of sunshine, rainbows, and the sweet laughter of children.

424 votes

33%

Under - I'm filled with rage when the neighborhood kids play on my lawn.

212 votes

636 votes | Poll has closed