SBNation.com User Blog: Lynch's Golf Cart

GSoMer-sourced group analysis?

Lynch's Golf Cart — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 19:07:50 -0000

If enough GSOMers were interested, maybe one game could be analyzed per week. Barnes averaged almost exactly 30 minutes per game, so if ten people chose to do it, maybe 3 minutes of game time per person. There should also be (a more general) analysis of what happened with Barnes out of the game (did the flow of the game or tactics change? Did the other team go on a run)? In addition, the last two minutes of the half, are obviously really important, so they should be analyzed separately.

2K12 has an interesting system for keeping track of how well your My Player is doing. Although it has some big flaws (for example, if your PG decides to go for a rebound with a center in the area, you are often docked for 'allowing offensive rebound' even if your center is not in the play and going after it is better than standing there and doing nothing), in general it covers most of the bases of good fundamental basketball.

If each person looked at 3-5 minutes of the game, it would be possible to go deep into what is actually happening, and actually take into account positioning, off-ball movement, etc, with not a lot of time commitment per person. (like 2K does in a limited way). Here are some of the categories that could be included:

Offense:

Off-Ball: Set Screen, establish post-up, get open for make-able shot (this would depend on the player's range, of course), draw potential help defender away from offensive focus (spacing), etc.

On-ball: shot selection, drive attempt, shot blocked, pass to man in good position, turnover, etc.

Defense would the opposite (ex. fight off screen, get caught in screen, etc.), with additions like double-teaming correctly.

Each of these events could be graded: Bad: lack of effort / undisciplined; low IQ play; bogging down offense (holding the ball to long), etc. , or left as just 'bad play' if nothing really stands out as bad, but the result wasn't good.

Lastly, plays / possessions that seem out of the ordinary or trends (either for the player or the team) should maybe be noted too. For example, if the player scored on the post-up his ;last time down, did he try to post up again? If loose D allowed a player to score did the D tighten on the next sequence?

An example possession might be:

"Davis with the ball near the top of the key. MKG tries to post up Barnes, who denies him. Davis shoots, and Barnes and MKG jostle for the rebound (Barnes has good position). MKG appears to commit an over-the-back foul (he throws his hands up afterward, a sure sign). Barnes drops the rebound out of bounds. UK ball" Good position (# of times overall), Unlucky dropped rebound (# of times overall)

" Off of a steal (credited to Zeller), Strickland thinks twice about taking a shot near the rim and passes it to Barnes, who gets it to Henson for what looks like a good shot, but Jones blocks it. Henson fights for the ball with Davis and manages to get it back. Strickland tries to drive in, but Jones get another block - this time right to Barnes, who hits another 3. Very lucky sequence. Barnes is actually credited with an offensive rebound for standing in the corner." Good pass, Good positioning/spacing, lucky wide open, 3-pointer, lucky offensive rebound

"Barnes on the wing, tries to drive, but MKG stops him. Barnes passes back out." Unsuccessful drive attempt, avoid bad decision [to jack up a contested shot]

Then at the end, just add up the totals of all the different plays, and it would be easy to quickly add up the totals from everyone's posts and create stats like good passes per 40 mins or ratio of avoid bad decision to bad decisions made

Would this work? And would anyone be willing to do this occasionally to produce a deep analysis of Barnes' (and maybe Ezeli's and Green's) key games?

Offense:

Off-Ball: Set Screen, establish post-up, get open for make-able shot (this would depend on the player's range, of course), draw potential help defender away from offensive focus (spacing), etc.

On-ball: shot selection, drive attempt, shot blocked, pass to man in good position, turnover, etc.

Defense would the opposite (ex. fight off screen, get caught in screen, etc.), with additions like double-teaming correctly.

An example possession might be:

"Barnes on the wing, tries to drive, but MKG stops him. Barnes passes back out." Unsuccessful drive attempt, avoid bad decision [to jack up a contested shot]

Would this work? And would anyone be willing to do this occasionally to produce a deep analysis of Barnes' (and maybe Ezeli's and Green's) key games?

Poll

Would you be willing to participate in something like this?

Yes

2 votes

No

12 votes

Depends

4 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

Howard Demands Trade to Nets (or did on Friday)

Lynch's Golf Cart — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 03:28:26 -0000

Howard Demands Trade to Nets (or did on Friday)

At least the Draft wasn't overshadowed by this (although it sort of was with the Rockets supposedly getting a package together for him).

UNC vs. UK 12/3/11 - 1st half - Emphasis on Barnes' possessions

Lynch's Golf Cart — Sat, 30 Jun 2012 20:46:18 -0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJSWkAZul_E

~19:50: Barnes can't get around MKG, so he passses to Zeller, who tries to pass it back outside. MKG tips the pass to Teague, who goes end-to-end for the score

But . . .

~19:34: After the inbounds, Strickland fires a great cross-court pass to Barnes, who was streaking down the other side of court. Barnes drains an open three on what is essentially a fastbreak. Very nice.

~18:50 - Barnes gets it to Zeller again, this time much deeper in the paint. Zeller doesn't recognize the (2 or 3) help defenders, and travels while trying to back down Anthony Davis. Hopefully not a preview of Zeller's NBA career.

~18:20: MKG steps back and banks in a long 2. Barnes, playing a soft D, doesn't get a good challenge to the shot. Maybe he was baiting him into it (not sure if MKG has that range).

~18:05: Barnes tries to set up for a post-up against MKG. Strickland's pass is very high (nerves at Rupp?), and ends up in Davis' hands. Barnes tries to break up the fast break but ends up with a sift foul on MKG, who gets an and1. 5-3 UK

~17:50: Barnes tries to drive on MKG again, but is cut off and tries a somewhat off-balance jumper near the free-throw line. On the ensuing possession, Henson stuffs Terrence Jones, but Strickland later allows Lamb to go right around him to the rim. 7-3 UK

~16:40: Not Barnes related, but Anthony Davis takes (and misses) a wide-open three. Why?

~16:35 : Barnes passes it down low to Zeller (again), but this time he draw a foul on Davis.

~16:05: Barnes moves well without the ball, and calls for it while open for 3, but Henson shoots (and scores on) a mid-range shot

~14:45: Marshall almost loses the ball in traffic, but Barnes moves to the top of the arc, and Marshall gets it to him for a nice three. 14-11 UNC

~14:10: Zeller turns it over in the paint (again). On the other end, MKG ends up elbowing Barnes in the face, knocking Harrison back. MKG then goes to the rim, only to commit a charge on Stirckland. Still 14-13 UNC

~13:45: Barnes looks like he's going drive, but he runs up against Anthony Davis, throws a not-so-great pass to Zeller, who puts up a bad shot. Barnes then makes up for it on the other end by blocking Lamb's layup attempt.

~13:15: Barnes tries to challenge MKG's drive, but they bump into each other and Barnes commits foul #2, and goes to the bench. Not a great defensive play.

~8:50: MKG is fouled by Hairston and is shaken up, grabbing his shoulder. He get up, but goes to the bench just in case. Barnes come back in the game.

~8:20: - Strickland with a nice drive-and-dish to Zeller, who dunks it. 28-20 UNC

~8:15: - Barnes plays too far off Darius Miller. Despite fighting off a screen attempt by Terrence Jones, Barnes doesn't contest as well as he could have if had been closer to begin with. Miller hits a three.

~8:10: Zeller with the nice high-arcing shot over Davis. Barnes draws away a potential help defender to the arc. Nicely designed by Roy Williams (or maybe a heads-up play by Barnes)

~7:30: Barnes shoots a step-back long two on Miller. Not a great shot, but Zeller is there for the offensive rebound.

~7:30: Barnes comes up court quickly after a rebound, then cuts from the left of the arc towards the middle. Three Kentucky defenders are near him. Barnes fakes like he's about to drive, while Bullock draws one defender away into the paint. The middle defender moves back to stop the drive, while the 3rd defender is too late to stop Barnes from shooting a nice fadeaway that looks like it's for 3. Barnes apparently drags his foot on the line as it's a two, but a great move and shot. 34-25 UNC, UK calls timeout.

~6:20: MKG grabs a rebound and starts running up court. Barnes can't get in front of him, but tries anyway, committing foul #3 in the process. Almost a mid-court version of his 2nd foul, except worse. On replay, it looks even worse (Barnes just bumps into him). 34-27 UNC

Despite Barnes' early 3rd foul, UNC led 43-38 at the half.

Stats comparison of top SG's (including Waiters)

Lynch's Golf Cart — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 20:44:25 -0000

Stats comparison of top SG's (including Waiters)

I'm not sure if I'm interpreting these stats correctly, but it seems that:

- Although Waiters was a backup, when he was in the game, he had the ball about as much as the other top guards (actually a bit more, by a few percent): 25.5% (lowest: Doron Lamb 18.2 - his team obviously had other options)
- His points per 40 were the 2nd-highest of the 5 (Ross 21.1, Waiters 21.0, Lamb lowest again 18.2 for same reason as above)
-So Waiters was a top option for his team, even though he didn't start. But comparatively, his true shooting percentage (56.5, 417th in the country) didn't justify his shot percent (27.5, #182). Doron Lamb, probably because he got much better looks, had a great (62.4, #67) true shooting percentage, while his shot percent (obviously) was very low (21), not even in the top 1000. Beal was similarly (although not nearly as pronounced) ranked higher in TS% than shot percent, as was Jeremy Lamb. Only Rivers and Ross were similar to Waiters. The same trends also hold with effective FG%.
-Waiters was just ok at 3-pointers: 36.3% (slightly worse than Rivers), Beal and Jeremy Lamb are even worse (33.9, 33.6), Doron Lamb (again in part because he was wide open alot) is really good at 46.6%
-So did Waiters get to the line alot (like Wade did, even in college, almost 50% his 2nd year)? Waiters' free throw rate was only 33% (compared to Beal's 44 and Rivers' 45), despite shooting 72.9% from the line (Beal - 76.9, Rivers - 65.8). Even D. Lamb (40.3%) had a high rate of getting to line. J. Lamb and Ross were terrible, with a rate in the 20's)
-One area where Waiters is Wade-esque (in fact statistically even better then Dwayne and much better than his draft peers) was stealing the ball. His steal rate (4.6%) was nearly double that of Beal, the second-highest total of the draftees. Beal (not surprisingly, considering his rebound totals) was by far a more efficient defensive rebounder (18.1 vs 8.1 for Waiters (and by a small margin, higher than Ross (17.5), who's considered a 2/3)
-Waiters did try to play a hybrid point-guard, and his assist to turnover ratio, 1.9, is better than the others (all around 1 except for D. Lamb at 1.4). However, D. Lamb's assist percentage is only 8.8, while Waiters' is 21.2 (Beal is even worse than Rivers, at 12.7 vs 12.9, J. Lamb and Ross both were around 10)
-Turnover percent is another plus for Waiters. Despite handling the ball in a pseudo-PG role, Waiter's 12.9 is significantly lower than his peers (except for D. Lamb's 11.6, but this was probably due to his role on the team). Beal was even more of a turnover machine (17.0%) than Rivers (16.9%), while J. Lamb and Ross are in the 15's.

The takeaway? It seems like Waiters, who has some PG skills and doesn't turn the ball over, could be a good compliment to Curry. But if doesn't (or can't) get to the line more, he can't be the second coming of Wade, and if he can't shoot well from 3 in the NBA either, it's hard seeing him at 7. Doron Lamb could be an interesting pick at 35 (he's at 36 in the final DraftExpress mock), but Waiters seems (to me) to be a perfect fit around where the Suns (who supposedly promised him) are picking, not at 7. I would much rather trade down and have Leonard and Harkless than Waiters if MKG or Drummond don't drop.

RIP Freddie Solomon

Lynch's Golf Cart — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 23:41:09 -0000

RIP Freddie Solomon

Only 59, of liver cancer. A legend of the pre-Rice era and a positive role model.

Ellis to Celtics for Ray Allen, Jeff Green?

Lynch's Golf Cart — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 23:09:48 -0000

Ellis to Celtics for Ray Allen, Jeff Green?

It's all over Twitter, but I'm not sure if this is actually for real. Other players also involved if is true. Definitely not what many people expected, that's for sure. So far, it's not on any big site (ESPN, etc.), so take it with a grain of salt for now I guess.

Pete Carroll: Mark Sanchez should have stayed at USC (LA Times)

Lynch's Golf Cart — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:37:44 -0000

Pete Carroll: Mark Sanchez should have stayed at USC (LA Times)

Will Carroll's comments cause Sanchez to drop into the Niners' lap in the second round?