It seems so long ago I was standing on the porch looking over a snow-blanketed street knowing how the game would end. Unlike past years, the fourth quarter drive ended with an underthrown ball falling to the turf and taking the stairway to seven with it. My housemates had mercifully turned off the game when I came back into the house, pretending the last three hours - the last eight months - had never happened. It seems so long ago.

Normally, the offseason has a full platter of Steelers-worshiping. Like many devote fans, by the time draft time rolls around I have read the draft analysis and am hanging on every trade, every prospect that drops, and constantly wonder who the Steelers will bring into the family. But this year it was different. This year, football is not a game: it is a business. It just doesn't feel the same.

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One of the most discussed questions of the last few weeks is about Joe Flacco. As the only NFL rookie to win two playoff games, the question has been asked over and over: Is Joe Flacco still going to play like a rookie in Sunday's showdown with the Steelers?

This post will try to answer the question by examining Flacco's performance, compare it with his regular season numbers, and then apply this "playoff" factor to his the average of his previous performances against the Steelers.

I believe he will still play like a rookie come Sunday, and will subsequently post one of his weakest games of the season. This is based on two observations:

a. History - No rookie has led a team to the superbowl. This sadly also applies to rookies that are 15-0 in their NFL debut. b. Data from this season.

I. Second Meeting Effect.

First time playing MIA and TEN:

TEN: 18/27 153, 66.7, 2 INT

MIA: 17/23, 232, 73.9, 1TD

Playoffs:

TEN: 11/22, 161, 50, 1TD, 0INT

MIA: 9/23, 135, 39.1, 0/0

The numbers are mixed, but in both cases he had a lower completion percentage. The MIA game is interesting because he had the exact same number of throws, yet played a significantly worse game. Against TEN, he had more TDs and fewer INTs, but managed a lower completion percentage. The TEN game was his fifth game of his career, and the MIA game was his seventh. You could argue he is getting used to the playoffs (because of the better numbers against TN than MIA), but it would be an oversight to say players only need one game to be comfortable in the high-pressure NFL playoffs. His numbers against the Steelers also declined from the first to the second meeting:

@PIT: 16/31 192, 51.6 1TD

@BAL: 11/28, 115, 39.3, 2INT

The second meeting may be attributed to defenses playing differently (and more effectively) than in the initial meeting. It will be interesting to see if the steeler defense can come up with new wrinkles to throw off Flacco in a third meeting.

II. Playoff Effect:

Going into the playoffs, Flacco was playing at a high level. Here are his numbers from Wk16 and Wk17 (Week 15, however, was his weakest of the season, against the Steelers):

Wk16, @DAL: 17/25, 149, 68%, 1TD

Wk17 JAC 17/23, 297, 73.9& 0/0

The unanswered question from this data is if the AFC championship game places greater pressure on rookies than any other phase of the season. Big Ben's stats, 2004:

NWE: 18/24, 196, 75.0, 2 TD

NWE: 14/24, 226, 58.3, 2TD, 3INT

As can be easily seen, Roethlisberger had a huge decline in his performance from the regular season to the AFC championship game. This may just be unique to Big Ben, but given the lack of success in the playoffs by rookie quarterbacks in general, I doubt it.

The Titan's game gives the best evidence that Flacco could have a successful game, but even in this game, he did not even play up to his season average (60 Comp %, 185.7 yards). If this trend holds true*, he should have the following stats against the Steelers:

Flacco: 122 Yards, 33.75 Comp %, 0-1TD, 1 INT

Some might object that all quarterbacks play worse in the regular season due to the higher level of competition. Here is Big Ben's numbers form this season:

Season Average: 59.9 Comp%, 206 Yards/Gm, 1TD/Gm .93/Int

DIV Playoff: 65.4 Comp %, 181 Yards, 1TD, 0 INT.

Ben had a higher completion percentage, but had a 13% decline in yards.

Comparatively, Flacco recorded a decline of 25.75% in completion percentage and a 20.3% decline in yards per game.

Compared to the other 2 quarterbacks in the championship games:

McNabb increased his Comp % (+.014%) and yards (+.056%) by a small amount, but had a dramatic decline in TDs (-70.0%) and a spike in INTs (218.0%).

Warner was opposite McNabb, having a small decline in yards (-.15%) and Comp % (-.07%), but a slight increase in TDs (+.06%) and INTs (+.14%). 

TDs and INTs appear to be outliers given their small data pool, but completion percentage and yards should level out over time (or at least we can appeal to asymptotic normality given the number of data points).

All other quarterbacks posted consistent numbers in completion percentage and yards per game, but TD and INTs were erratic.

III. Conclusion:

To answer our question, yes, it appears Flacco is still playing like a rookie. This may be overly vague of a term. There are quality quarterbacks that played poorly in the playoffs that are not "rookies" (Delhomme, etc). Perhaps it is best to ask the question, which quarterback is most likely to have a sub-par performance? The answer, given the above data, is Flacco.

He has yet to overcome his season average in either completion percentage or yards in either of his two playoff games. Although he has reduced the number of interceptions in the TEN game, this could be due to the Raven's leading most of the game and, therefore, he was not required to make risky passes. These numbers were observed without the pressure of a Superbowl trip on the line. Compared to all other quarterbacks in championship games, his stats have taken the greatest hit in completion percentage and yards per game.

The above factors point to a sub-par performance by the rookie, but given his previous numbers, there is no doubt he is a talented player. It would be surprising, but not implausible, for him to come into the AFC championship game and lead his team to a win. If the "playoff" effect continues, however, I believe the Steelers have a strong chance of booking their tickets for Tampa.

*Methodology:

(1) I averaged Flacco's numbers from the playoffs and found his completion percentage is 74.25 of his regular season average. His yards are at  79.7% of his regular season average.

(2) I averaged his numbers in the two steelers games (153.5 Yards/Gm, 45.45 Comp %/Gm, .5TD/Gm, 1INT/Gm), and then discounted these numbers by the "playoff effect" (in step 1).

The same process was applied to the other 3 quarterbacks in the NFC and AFC Championship games.