Dan Lewis's post about protecting our players for an expansion draft got me thinking in general about expansion, which is probably due as there are now an odd number of teams in each league going into 2013 with the Astros' move to the AL West.

Posing a question to the community: What is your plan of expansion? Do you have a 40-man draft? Where do you put new teams? Do we move the NFL System of four divisions per conference? Are the playoffs further expanded?

Quick Synopsis on what I would do: Add teams in Las Vegas (or Greater Nevada) and Baton Rouge to key in to oft-neglected fanbases such as those in Vegas, birthplace of the Great Bryce Harper and in general a thriving local sports area, as well as the Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana gulf area which has a lot of potential for income. Then do NFL Style Everything. 12 team playoffs with 2 Wild Card teams per league and a 4-team first round (although there should be a three game series for the first round), 5 game series second round, 7 game for pennant and WS. Divisions would be as follows:

NL East:

Mets

Phillies

Nationals

Pirates

NL South

Marlins

Braves

Baton Rouge

St. Louis

NL North:

Cubs

Brewers

Rockies

Reds

NL West:

Dodgers

Giants

Diamondbacks

Padres

AL East:

Yankees

Red Sox

Orioles

Blue Jays

AL North:

Indians

White Sox

Tigers

Twins

AL West:

Angels

Athletics

Las Vegas

Mariners

AL South:

Astros

Rangers

Rays

Royals

via www.startworldnews.com

Now that I've gotten your attention...

Going to try to be very dry with this one, because there are two manifestations of what I'd do depending on Reyes.

1. Reyes and stuff. I'd offer Reyes 5 years at $100 million with some options at the end of it for a bit less annually (say $14 million mutual with $3 million buyout followed by $10 million mutual with $2 million buyout). If he decides the Tigers, Brewers and Angels are better fits, then to hell with him.

IF REYES SIGNS:

Then we have a pretty interesting squad next year. Two first basemen (Davis, Duda), two second basemen (Tejada, Murphy), and Reyes and Wright, making two big all-star caliber question marks. With Pagan technically not a guarantee, we have an outfield crop of Bay and.... that's about it. Thole would be back, Paulino not necessarily, Santana, Niese, Dickey and Gee back, Pelfrey not necessarily. Anyways, enough rambling, here's what I would do:

1. Send Ike Davis to the outfield. Davis spent time on the mound and in the outfield at college, and he has the strength and athleticism to move back and handle the position with significantly more ability and grace than Lucas Duda, who is also an ample first baseman and possibly the first baseman of our future. Davis' arm would be a great fit for the Mets' 2012 left field.

2. Trade Jason Bay to the Yankees for A.J. Burnett. They have essentially equal contracts for the next two seasons, and just as Bay could use an easy park to mash in and the Yankees need a 4th outfielder, the Mets could use a talented pitcher like Burnett in a pitcher's park and in the NL East, where Burnett thrived (When healthy). At the start of the season I'd like to relegate Burnett to a bullpen role, and either work him as a closer or starter if he shows he can handle either.

3. Sign  Chris Capuano to a 2 year, $6 million deal. Whether as a swingman, lefty specialist or starter, Capuano is a very useful pitcher who likely won't be seeing a large sum of cash from any other team, considering he showed trouble with the long ball even at Citi.

4. Tender Angel Pagan, Ronny Paulino, Taylor Buchholz, Manny Acosta and Mike Pelfrey contracts. In aggregate that should cost around $14 million.

5. Sign Coco Crisp to a 2 year, $14 million deal.

6. Sign Jonathan Broxton to a 2 year, $11 million deal with a third year team option

7. Sign Kyle Davies to a minor league deal

8. Sign Andy LaRoche to a minor league deal

9. Trade Daniel Murphy and Zach Lutz to the Angels for Maicer Izturis and Garrett Richards

10. Trade Justin Turner to the Diamondbacks for Collin Cowgill

Bullpen: Parnell, Herrera, Byrdak, Capuano, Acosta, Burnett, Broxton (CL)

Rotation: Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey, Gee

Lineup: Reyes SS, Crisp CF, Wright 3B, Davis LF, Duda 1B, Pagan RF, Thole/Paulino C, Tejada 2B

Bench: Izturis, Evans, Pridie, Paulino/Thole, Cowgill

AAA: Schwinden, Richards, Davies, Mejia, Familia, Beato, Carrasco, Buchholz, Nickeas, Pascucci, Satin, Valdespin, LaRoche, Martinez, Nieuwenhuis, Lagares, Baxter

IF REYES DOES NOT SIGN

1. Send Ike Davis to the outfield

2. Trade Jason Bay to the Yankees for A.J. Burnett.

3. Sign  Chris Capuano to a 2 year, $6 million deal

4. Tender Angel Pagan, Ronny Paulino, Taylor Buchholz, Manny Acosta and Mike Pelfrey contracts.

5. Trade David Wright to the Reds for Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier OR trade to the Rockies for Nolan Arenado and Drew Pomeranz.

6. Move Daniel Murphy to 3B, Ruben Tejada to SS

7. Sign Brandon Phillips to a 4 year, $44 million deal if he is available, or sign Kelly Johnson toa 2 year, $16 million deal with a third year team option for the same amount.

8. Get Yu Darvish. Post whatever you need to post him, and sign him. Post $50 million and get him for 6 years $70 million if you have to.

9. Sign David DeJesus to 1-year, $3.7 million deal.

10. Sign Jonathan Broxton to 2 year, $11 million deal with third year team option.

11. Sign Wei-Yin Chen to 3 years, $36 million

Bullpen: Parnell, Herrera, Byrdak, Capuano, Acosta, Burnett, Broxton (CL)

Rotation: Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey, Chen

Lineup: Pagan CF, Phillips 2B, Murphy 3B, Davis LF, Duda 1B, DeJesus RF, Thole/Paulino C, Tejada SS

Bench: Frazier or Evans if we don't get him, Turner, Pridie, Paulino/Thole, Cowgill

AAA: Schwinden, Gee, Mejia, Familia, Beato, Carrasco, Buchholz, Nickeas, Pascucci, Satin, Valdespin, Lutz, Martinez, Nieuwenhuis, Lagares, Baxter...either Grandal and Alonso or Pomeranz

and Yu Darvish.

Leading the minor leagues in ERA at the moment is one Greg Billo, a man who only recently became legal to drink alcohol and was born just after De La Soul released their debut album. He has a healthy lead too, with his 1.40 ERA leading second place Boone Whiting by 0.49 points. He's been completely overlooked by prospectors because he belongs to the Royals' organization, of which he wasn't even a Top 50 prospect last year in the eyes of many, and because of this I know nothing about him, which includes his favorite foods, velocity, command and repertoire. Can anybody fill me in?

After two dreadful late inning losses to the Marlins, I went into Hot Stove mode and began looking to what the 2012 Mets will look like.

First off, let's see who's under a full blown contract heading into next yea and what they're makingr:

1. Johan Santana, LHP,  $24 million

2. R.A. Dickey, RHP, $4.25 million

3. D.J. Carrasco, $1.2 million

4. David Wright, 3B, $15 million

5. Jason Bay, OF, $16 million

Next, guys who are headed to or are in the middle of their arbitration years:

1. Jonathon Niese, LHP, likely to make around league minimum

2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, likely to earn ~$5 million

3. Dillon Gee, RHP, likely to make around league minimum

4. Pedro Beato, RHP, likely to make around league minimum

5. Bobby Parnell, RHP, likely to make around league minimum

6. Manny Acosta, RHP, likely to make around league minimum

7. Ronny Paulino, C, likely to earn ~$2 million

8. Josh Thole, C, likely to make around league minimum

9. Ike Davis, 1B, likely to make around league minimum

10. Daniel Murphy, 2B, likely to make around league minimum

11. Justin Turner, 2B, likely to make around league minimum

12. Angel Pagan, OF, likely to earn ~$5 million

13. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, likely to make around league minimum

FInally, notable minor leaguers:

1. Ruben Tejada, MI

2. Fernando Martinez, OF

3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

4. Jenrry Mejia, RHP

5. Mike O'Connor, LHP

6. Pat Misch, LHP

Looking over the roster of controlled/controllable players, it would appear that we have 3 bullpen spots wide open, a rotation made with sticks and chewing gum, no shortstop, and an outfield of underachievers. We have $61 million tied down already to players going into next season, and our payroll this year pushed $150 million, the additions of Paulino and Pagan will push it to $68 million, and the rest is fair game, and with the addition of Dave Einhorn, I'd say it's safe to assume the Mets can add $50 million or so to next year's payroll. With that in mind let's look at the crop of guys we can acquire for our squad, and the guys that I think will find themselves in blue and orange come 2012:

1. Jose Reyes, SS - Right now, everyone and their mothers know that Reyes is the best shortstop on the free agent market and will command the money he rightfully feels he deserves. Whether it be Alderson or Mets fans, just about everyone in the Flushing community will agree that we need this guy back. He didn't switch to Scott Boras, a promising sign that money won't be the only factor in where he goes, but he still may end up with a 6 or 7 year deal from a team with big pockets. Competitors for his services include but aren't limited to the Yankees, Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox, Reds and Brewers. Yikes.

2. C.J. Wilson, LHP - Wilson, a reliever-turned-starter, has a deep repertoire of out pitches and has transformed from a failed closer to a successful starter due to the Rangers' coaching prowess and his own abilities. Wilson posted a 4.4 WAR in 2010, his first year starting for the Rangers, and proving the haters wrong he is repeating that performance (except so far a little better) this year, already at a 3.7 mark and beating out his 3.56 FIP from 2010 with a 3.25 mark this season. At 31 years of age and relatively little experience starting, he likely won't command a whole bunch of years from the free agency, but he may ask for a pretty healthy salary. Think 3 years with a club option and around $12-15 million per. What makes Wilson cool is that if his go as a starter fails he can move back to the bullpen.

3. Josh Willingham, OF - A rock of consistency, Josh Willingham has managed to be around league average or slightly above for the past 5 years or so. Josh has showed good pop and solid discipline to go along with mediocre fielding in the best and worst of ballparks, and seems like Alderson's type for a good, cheap find who could add depth to the outfield and provide us with a righty power bat. Should only demand a year or two from us, considering he'll be 33.

4. Chris Capuano, LHP - Having a solid year for us so far and may find himself back on the squad as our #5 or as a lefty swingman out of the bullpen. Does everything right except allow a buttload of home runs, should only demand a year and we may even chose to give him two. Capuano was a great addition by Sandrew this year and it would make sense to bring him back.

5. Joel Peralta, RHP - A successful reliever who signed for a pittance last year and now has two successful consecutive seasons under his belt. Peralta is worth a 1 or 2 year deal at $1-2 million per. He's got good command of his fastball and he couples it with deadly splitter. He doesn't have overpowering velocity or anything, just a very good bullpen piece for any contender. Not much more to say.

6. Carlos Beltran, OF - Probably one of the best Mets ever and one of the best center fielders of all time, it'd make me pretty damn happy to bring Carlos back. He was our best hitter before being traded to the Giants and despite his knee issues he was still productive defensively in right field. Right now Boras is saying Beltran will command 5 years and $70 million, which is clearly ridiculous, but teams may go to 3 years to get the 35 year old's services, and could pay a pretty penny, while I doubt Salderson would go above two years. It's more likely that Beltran ends up a Brave or Giant, on teams with more capital available to spend on outfielders. However, if we lose out on Jose, Beltran may be our top target in the end.

7. Vicente Padilla, RHP - struggling with injury and mediocrity in the past, Padilla will finally start accepting bullpen assignments, and now would be a perfect time to capitalize on his low value and turn him into a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a couple solid secondaries. He could be a good righty swingman or potentially a setup man, and considering his lack of good performance he may not cost all that much. Of course, considering his past contracts, it still may be too much for Alderson and the Mets to pay for a reliever.

8. Tim Byrdak, LHP - Lefty specialist who may return to the club. Does well at getting lefties out.

9. Javier Vazquez, RHP - Getting creative here, Javy seems to fit the bill of what Sandy may pursue. He's a few years removed from his prime, succeeds despite high fly-ball tendencies, and seems to be on his road to recovery after a down year (he's throwing his fastball harder this year and walking fewer batters than he did in 2010). He may come pretty cheap, so if the Mets non-tender Pelfrey I wouldn't be surprised if they added on Vazquez.

10. Michael Cuddyer, OF - A good righty hitter who can hit for pop in Minnesota, Cuddyer's a vet who, no matter the position, can just plain old hit. At first glance, he looks like a perfect fit for our squad, so why don't we just sign him? The answer lies in his defense, which is known for being horrid basically everywhere, and the fact that he is making $8.5 million in 2011 and may ask for 2-3 years and just as much salary per if not more. He's good to keep an eye on, but I don't expect him to be in Queens.

11. B.J. Upton, OF - The first trade target to appear on this list, Upton would only be a one-year rental, but would add some power to the lineup from the right side, as well as help out the defense in our outfield, and lastly will fit right into our superior running game. He'd only cost around $5 million, but the reason he's so low is I'm not sure how we'd match up with the Rays in a trade. Either way, I think he's an interesting fit for our team.

12. Edwin Jackson, RHP - This guy's good. While inconsistent on a start-by-start basis, he's been consistently very good over the past 3 seasons, combining top notch velocity, a fantastic slider, and a good ability to keep the ball over the plate and induce grounders and Ks. Jackson will be 28 come the off-season, and despite playing for 5 teams over the past 4 years, he's gotten better each season and his performance and age may warrant a big deal. Think 5-6 years and a whole bunch of cash. He'd be a risky signing and be worth quite the price tag, so he may not be the type of guy Sandy would want.

13. Kyle Davies, RHP - Just a wild thought, Kyle Davies has always been a pretty mediocre pitcher, but since he's thrown the cutter he's done pretty solid. His peripherals have looked fine over the past couple of seasons, and while he still struggles with command he should allow fewer HRs in Citifield and is still young (exactly as old as Jackson). His bloated ERA may lower his cost, and he could be a good bullpen addition who could spot start or an interesting guy to keep in AAA if he accepts a minor league assignment.

14. Jimmy Rollins, SS - What if we don't get Reyes? It's a thought that would make any Met fan shudder, but it definitely is a possibility. Should the unspeakable occur, odds are we may simply turn to another free agent shortstop, and Rollins is the next best thing out there. He hasn't had a great season at the dish for a while, so I can't imagine he'll demand an All-Star level salary, but his defense has been phenomenal, he steals a good amount of bases and his bat is enough to keep him afloat. While J.J. Hardy is also available, he's a relatively low OBP player who saw a big dip in defensive performance this year and has power that is largely affected by the park he plays in. Because of this, Rollins is the safer bet.

15. Scott Hairston, OF - A talented player who Sandy loves, and it paid the Mets dividends in 2011 so far. It would not at all be surprising to see Scott return to the squad.

16. Taylor Buchholz, RHP - He performed fantastically this year before coming down with an injury and depression. Hopefully, his depression isn't New York related so we can get our guy back and get back a cheap, good hurler.

17. George Sherrill, LHP - Having a comeback year with the Braves, may be a bit too costly for Alderson to acquire simply as a lefty specialist, but otherwise would be a great fit in the New York 'pen.

18. Brandon Webb, RHP - After basically being out for 3 years, Webb may return for 2012, and if we can get him for cheap he could be more than worth every penny we spend on him.

19. Micah Owings, RHP - A possible long man as well as a possible late-in-game pinch hitter. Could be another D.J. Carrasco.

20. Cody Ross, OF - Could be a good buy-low righty power bat to throw into the outfield mix and give the Mets some versatility in the lineup. Shouldn't be too expensive and may end up getting quite a few at-bats if things work well enough for him.

Matthew Duran is an animal. Playing for the New Rochelle Huguenots, Duran manned third base and shortstop throughout his high schools career, bashing the ball to all fields off of just about any pitcher. For the 2011 season, Duran finished with a .625 batting average, hitting 10 home runs in just over 20 games, an especially incredible feat considering the fact that he's been walked intentionally in at least 20% of his plate appearances. He is a presence at the plate who simply bashes.

I would know, I pitched to him. Late in a game this season I had the opportunity to strike Matt Duran out. As far as my stuff goes, I'm really nothing special. My fastball tops out at 82 from the left side, and while I do mix it well with plenty of good secondaries, I am no All-American, and the strikeout was probably more dumb luck than anything else. Earlier in the game, Duran faced our ace, a 6-foot-2 Princeton bound left-hander who boasts a 87-90 MPH fastball backed by a plus power curve. After taking a fastball and curveball out of the zone, Duran smacked a ground ball down the right field line off of an 88 MPH two seam fastball in on his hands for a double.

In part of my well wishes to Matt for the Yankees organization and my own pride, I'd love to give you guys a little scouting report on Matt Duran:

Duran has played varsity baseball since his Freshman year, and as a frosh hit .470 with 4 home runs, and since then evolved into a 10 HR, .625 hitting senior who instills fear into any pitcher who faces him. He has a full ride to Fordham University right now (and was offered half scholarships to Boston College and Notre Dame), a good attitude about baseball and a fantastic work ethic. In terms of his tools:

Hitting: Duran has a quick, level bat that explodes through the zone quickly, keeping the barrel in the strike zone for an extremely long time. He gets the barrel on any pitch, no matter where it is, and keeps his swing short and compact. He has impeccable timing, able to tee off on 60 MPH curveballs in addition to 90 MPH fastballs, a true testament to his contact and timing ability. Throw the ball away and he takes it to right center, throw one in and he's bound to take it over the left field fence. At the very least, his maturity, hands and pop at the dish indicate that he should hit .270 at the least at an appriopriate professional level, with a very high ceiling in this regard.

Power: Despite the fact that he is not a hulking figure, Duran has plus power by anyone's standards He is solidly built and has enough power to take one out of a Major League ballpark in any direction. One youtube search of Duran shows a plethora of long balls to all fields. That being said, he isn't likely to add much more than 20 pounds of muscle from where he is already, and he's not one to hit 500 foot bombs a la Bryce Harper. His level swing also precludes a more long-ball oriented approach at the dish. His ceiling is a 30 homer player still, which is nothing to scoff at.

Speed:  Duran isn't slow. Anyone who's seen him run the bases or play the field will attest to that. He is agile on his feet and capable of manning the infield without embarassing himself. He may even beat out an infield hit or two. That being said, at higher levels speed is not likely to be a huge asset for Duran, who may even come to be below average for an infielder if he gains a few more pounds. While listed at 3B, he has spent time at 1B, corner OF and SS in high school, and his speed will determine which of these positions he'll end up at in the pros.

Glove: Duran is sure handed, able to pick balls at first as well as in the holes at third. In the infield and outfield he covers ample ground, although middle infield may elude his abilities at higher levels due to his lack of blazing speed. He makes a quick transfer from glove to hand. Duran's biggest downfall in the infield to date is his footwork. Playing at short, turning double plays seemed laborious when he attempted them, and while he was successful he was not graceful by any means, and at third his footwork was mediocre at best as well. With time and practice at higher levels, Duran should get the hang of it.

Arm: Duran has an above average arm with good throwing mechanics that is good enough to stick at any position.

Overall, Duran's offensive potential is enough to have him stick at any position, and he has the athleticism to learn t position well. The only question (besides performance, obviously) is how his speed develops as he gets bigger.

Be excited about this kid.

Over at Amazin' Avenue I wrote this post summarizing why the Mets trading Jose Reyes is just downright stupid and promoted the Mets dealing Mike Pelfrey. The top target I could find for the big right-hander was the New York Yankees - A team with a pretty crappy back-end of the rotation who will be fighting for a Wild Card spot this season (and can't necessarily rule out a run for the Division). Ivan Nova is a borderline replacement level pitcher who has little strike out ability, average-at-best command and is susceptilbe to the long ball, and Freddy Garcia is also a mediocre-at-best pitcher who very much runs the risk of allowing 30 HR in less than 100 IP with the Yankees and also has a very bad injury history. Pelfrey could very well be a welcome addition to a questionable Yankees rotation.

A proposal I made for around July included Mike Pelfrey going to the Yankees in exchange for either Andrew Brackman or Hector Noesi, Slade Heathcott, and Eduardo Nunez. If you're the Yankees, are you taking that deal? I'm interested in your thoughts. No, really, I am.

Sportswriters around the interwebz have been having plenty of fun poking at the Mets for no other reason besides the fact that they can. Every negative molehill is a mountain and any positive aspect of the team is almost immediately dismissed. For this reason, many "respected" publications have the Mets finishing in last or something of that effect in the National League. Why the Mets are often ranked below a Marlins team that is filled with sloppy defenders and iffy starters, as well as the Nationals, a squad of free swingers and contact pitchers is beyond me, but that's a whole different story. Most believe that Sandy Alderson will be forced to move into a rebuilding phase, and they believe that phase essentially starts and ends with trading Jose Reyes. They look at Alderson's propensity to trade away big name players such as Rickey Henderson (twice, no less), his indifference toward the stolen base, his previous history of not dishing out big contracts, and the Giants', Reds' and Angels' big needs at shortstop as they all attempt to contend for their respective divison titles. In essence, they have put 2 and 2 together and got "trade Reyes" as the answer.

I say horseshit. Reyes is a great ballplayer, and in all odds Alderson sees him for the Top SS that he is, despite the fact that he doesn't love Stolen Bases and Reyes doesn't have a .400 OBP every year. At shortstop, Reyes is still consistently among the best with the bat and is always among the middle of the pack (or better) overall with his glove. There are very few players that could even come close to replacing him, considering Reyes at his worst is still a 3 WAR player, while most prospects will probably  fail to perform that well in the best of their seasons. Alderson most certainly knows this, and Alderson won't take dreck in return for Reyes just because he traded Henderson, or because Sports Illustrated has a vendetta against in-depth analysis. No, he didn't dish out big contracts in Oakland, nor did he keep Henderson...but that's because he was in Oakland! His payroll was likely around  $20 million, if that, and trading Henderson was the only effective way of accruing any meaningful talent for a team on a shoestring budget. Even Alderson acknowledged that Henderson was one of the best players of all time and if the A's had the means they would've simply kept him.

Recently, Joel Sherman made a bold prediction that the Mets would deal Jose Reyes at the deadline for RHP Homer Bailey and SS Zack Cozart. While I do believe both Bailey and Cozart could be useful pieces (for the Reds), the trade is ridiculously lopsided. Homer Bailey, an ex-top prospect, has come around nicely from busthood by recovering from failed prospect status. He has an upper-80s, lower 90s fastball and a few solid breaking pitches and a changeup to back it up. His command is far from pinpoint and none of his pitches flash  any real potential, but on the Mets he'd serve to be a decent 4 starter while Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia breathe down his neck. Cozart has pop and speed but strikes enough to make Austin Jackson blush, and is no cherub-faced youngster as he's turning 26 this year without a lick of MLB experience. Sherman also pushed the notion that the Mets want a "power arm." Why? Is Cap'n Fastball not enough for us? What about Harvey and Mejia? Or even Pelfrey? Furthermore, if we want a power arm, what the hell would we do with Homer Bailey? The Mets could get significantly better talent by simply letting Reyes go to free agency and collecting the 2 first round draft picks he'll almost certainly net. The same policy applies to any trade involving the Mets. The team is already set at catcher, first, and third for years to come, and have plenty of OF talent in the minor and major leagues. Even with pitching, the Mets have a pretty decent crop of "power arms" to complement their solid big league pitching staff. Teams like the Giants will most likely need to part with studs like Madison Bumgarner or Brandon Belt (who would move to corner outfield) in order to get Reyes, and it's pretty counterproductive if you're trading away key MLB pieces in the midst of a playoff run. The Mets won't see any worthy offers for Reyes in the middle of the season unless the Angels cough up Mike Trout and another piece or two. Even then, it's still a tough call.

ON THE OTHER HAND, the Mets do have a trade piece set and ready to go, and it's Big Pelf. Pelf has had a solid tenure with the Mets. Over the past 3 seasons he's been a rock of consistency, repetitively inducing grounders and strutting his stuff as a solid workhorse, with xFIPs usually hovering around 4.40, and a relatively injury-free career so far. However, with new talent coming up in Harvey and Mejia, the possibility of a returning Johan, and potential stopgap talent in Dillon Gee and Mark Cohoon, it makes sense to dangle Pelfrey to the public to see what we could get. Not to mention, Pelfrey has a couple season before free agency, and while his rising cost may be pesky to us it gives us more leverage in a trade. Many mid-season contenders with downed pitchers or a lack of back-end talent in the rotation could seek out Pelfrey and could possibly offer up pretty large returns in exchange for the young, controllable, consistent Mike Pelfrey. Some teams that come to mind...

1. The Yankees - Sure, we may have "abused Pedro Feliciano," but when they're in mid-season still starting Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia, they're going to be looking for help wherever they can get it. In a perfect world, the Mets could somehow leverage Gary Sanchez into the deal, but realistically getting an Andrew Brackman or Hector Noesi plus Slade Heathcott and Eduardo Nunez would be a very good return for Pelfrey, and even if Cash turns it down the Steinbrenners could accept it.


2. The Angels - We all know Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana are machines that pump out results year in and year out without trouble, but let's just SAY that one--or both--of them struggle this season. Pelfrey may be the team's saving grace, but what would the exchange rate be? The Angels have little of interest at the MLB level and their prospects aren't top notch outside of Trout, Segura and Conger, but between Tyler Chatwood, Garrett Richards, Fabio Martinez and Cam Bedrosian, they have plenty of pitchers to include in a deal for Pelf. Brandon Wood and Alex Amarista could also be very nice throw ins. Any of those pitchers plus Wood and Amarista and I'm sold. If we get Jean Segura, though, I'd be ecstatic.


3. The Blue Jays - The Jays have a rotation of question marks. Ricky Romero is a great Opening Day starter, and Drabek and Cecil make interesting supporting pieces, but Litsch and Jo-Jo are more likely to fail than not. If they find themselves in the Wild Card fight, they might enjoy a nice ground ball pitcher in the hitter-oriented AL East. Hopefully the Mets could coax Dickie Thon (TEAM DICKEY) and another piece such as Moises Sierra or optimistically Aaron Sanchez out of the Jays.

The Tigers and Cardinals also come to mind, but I have trouble finding a fit between them and the Mets.

Anyway, thoughts on trading Pelfrey? It hasn't been too talked about around here, so I'm curious to see the AA opinion.

You're Brian Cashman. You have a receding hairline, a disappointed fanbase, and the weight of the world on your shoulders, not to mention, you have two empty rotation spots with one filled by a headcase, A.J. Burnett. What do you do? Well, you have near unlimited money. That always helps, but in the case of Cliff Lee money wasn't the answer. You now may need to make some sacrifices to improve your already star-studded club.

But still, money helps a lot.

If I'm Brian Cashman, I'm on a madman's hunt for pitching, and here's my criteria:

- He needs to keep lefties on the ground. Here are some interesting numbers:

Pitcher/Lefty Batter Fly Ball Rate/Earned Run Average

CC Sabathia in 2010/ 24%/ 3.18

A.J. Burnett career / 31% / 3.99

Javier Vazquez 2010/ 43% / 5.32

For Vazquez: Yikes. Not a fit for Yankee Stadium or competition against the lefty-heavy BoSox

- He needs to strike lefties out. CC Sabathia has been pretty unaffected by Yankee Stadium's hitter-friendly dimension because lefties, who Yankee Stadium favors the most, cannot make contact off him. His K/9 mark for his career is a thrillingly good 9.51  A.J. Burnett was also successful before 2010 for the same reason, striking out 8.98 lefties per 9. Burnett's relatively bad 2010 may lie in his abnormally low 6.53 K/9 vs. lefthanders.

- He needs to be good at baseball playing.

So the most obvious fit here is Andy Pettitte. He can strike lefties out, get em out on the ground, and all with solid command. I'd try and throw 1 year and $13 million in his direction, with an $8 million mutual option which becomes nullified if the player doesn't want it and halved and turned into a $4 million player option if Pettitte wants it and the team doesn't.

To fill the last spot, take flyers on Fausto Carmona. Carmona is a very good option for the Yanks, as he's a great groundball pitcher who has refined his ability to command the baseball. Here's the deal:

Trade Joba Chamberlain, Hector Noesi, and Slade Heathcott to the Indians for Fausto Carmona.

It's a pretty mutually good deal. Chamberlain could instantly become an incredible long-term bullpen piece on the Indians, Noesi is a great pitching prospect with incredible command and very good velocity, and Heathcott is both pretty extraneous prospects to the Yankees. They get a deal done without giving up Montero, Sanchez, Betances or Banuelos. Pretty awesome if you ask me.

But what if Pettitte doesn't sign or the Camona deal falls through? Who is there to get? Let me present to you Jason Hammel.

Trade Andrew Brackman and Austin Romine to the Rockies for Jason Hammel.

Lefties hit fly balls off of Hammel just 33% of the time on batted balls and he struck them out to an incredible 8.81 K/9 rate. He's freaking good. The Rockies get a good prospect in Brackman and a good complement to Chris Iannetta in Romine.The Yankees already have saturated catching depth between Martin, Posada, Cervelli, Montero, Sanchez and Murphy, and can afford to part with Romine. Hammel has had experience in the AL East, a former product of the Rays. He was in a position similar to what Jeff Niemann currently is for Tampa, and could fill the role of Andy Pettitte for the Yankees, keeping lefties honest. Additionally, pay no attention to his less-than-optimal ERAs, his past two seasons have consisted of groundballs, strikeouts and no walks. He should flourish with the Yankees.

If all else fails:

Trade Curtis Granderson and Ivan Nova to the Angels for Joel Pineiro, Peter Bourjos and Scott Kazmir.

It's a big risk trading Granderson for Pineiro, as Grandy is one of the better centerfielders in the game. However, it's very much worth it. Pineiro only struck out lefties at a 5.74 K per 9 rate in 2010, but lefties cannot lift the ball against him, with a 28% fly ball rate on batted balls, and a ground ball rate over 50%. Kazmir also presents an interesting option for the Yankees. His inclusion in the deal would be more to give incentive to the Angels to accept for payroll reasons, but he also presents some value to the Yankees. He has good strikeout numbers against lefties for his career, but also eerily good ability to keep them on the ground. At worst, he could be a good lefty specialist and a means of getting a deal done. At best, if he returns to form with acceptable command, he would be a fantastic pitcher with the Yankees, perhaps as good as Phil Hughes.  Bourjos is an interesting CF prospect who could be a useful 4th outfielder, and because Gardner is the quientessential CF he can start over him there, while the Yankees weigh their options between the various corner outfielders available. Options include Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, who regardless of this trade I feel the Yankees should sign and can both also serve as DH should Posada be ineffective and/or Bourjos proves capable of handling an everyday role. This would be the method of replacing Granderson. The need for pitching trumps the need for Granderson specifically, especially with Gardner on the roster.

The rotation would consist of Sabathia, Hughes and Burnett, and two of Pettitte, Carmona, Hammel and Pineiro.

The bullpen would definitely consist of Rivera, Marte, Feliciano and Mitre. Possibilities range from Chamberlain, Brackman, Kazmir, and Ivan Nova. Ideally I would have fought for Bobby Jenks over the Sox, or Kerry Wood over the Cubs. I'd also look into Chad Qualls, Taylor Buchholz, JC Romrea and Brian Fuentes.

The infield remain the same, with Nunez as the backup MI and 3B and Posada, the DH or Martin filling in for Teixeira on his off days. DH Will be either Jones or Guerrero backed by Posada, who is also the third string catcher. The outfield will consist of Gardner, Granderson and Swisher with Guerrero or Jones able to fill in in case someone's out and Greg Golson as the fifth outfielder unless they trade Granderson and have Gardner, Swisher, Guerrero/Jones as well as Bourjos.

Russell Martin will start at catcher backed by Cervelli and Posada.

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

The title explains it all: What Would Jeff Do? And by Jeff, I mean "THE DUDE," Jeff Lebowski, pictured above (left, right, top, bottom, and center).

I have made many attempts to channel The Dude's wisdom. I climbed various mountains, adopted various religions (many of which I didn't know existed), killed many men, women and children, and even made forays into Nihilism (too exhausting for my taste). Nothing has worked thus far, and I may not try for a long time. It seems as though The Dude can only be found in the cinema of the late-90s, with some traces left in Obadiah Staine, former business partner of the great Tony Stark.

That being said, I can always find refuge and peace of mind in trying to hypothetically fix my favorite baseball team, the New York 'Ropolitans. I'm not going to make lengthy explanations, just gonna say some transactions. No worries, I'll make my case in the comments section as you all question my brilliance.

1. Tender Angel Pagan a contract, I'd imagine it will end up at around 1-year, $5 million. After next year they can work on signing him to a 2-3 year contract. Tender Pelfrey a contract also, at 1-year, $4.25 million. After this, make R.A. Dickey a new contract offer: 2 years, $3 million in the first and $5 million in the second, with a club option for $7 million in the third with a $500,000 buyout. Tender Sean Green a countract at 1 year and $1 million. Nontender John Maine.

2. Trade Luis Castillo and $4 million to the White Sox for Alejandro De Aza.

3. Trade Oliver Perez, Zach Lutz and $10 million to the Cardinals for Mitch Boggs and Peter Kozma

4. Defer $5.5 million of Carlos Beltran's 2010 to 2011 and 2012, paying the interest.

5. Trade Lucas Duda, Jefry Marte and Eric Niesen for David Aardsma and Dan Cortes, tender Aardsma a contract for 1 year, $3.8 million.

6. Sign Kevin Millwood to 1-year deal with a base salary of $5 million, with easily-attainable incentives worth $1.0 million and more difficult ones worth an additional $2.0 million in total. Club option worth $8 million as well

7. Sign Aaron Harang to deal identical to that of Millwood.

8. Sign Koji Uehara to 1-year, $4 million deal

9. Sign Jason Varitek to 1-year $1 million deal

10. Sign Tony Gwynn to 1-year, $1 million deal

11. Sign Jose Lopez to 1-year, $3.5 million deal with club option for $5 million in 2012

25-man roster:

Starting Rotation:

RHP R.A. Dickey ($3 million)

RHP Mike Pelfrey ($4.25 million)

LHP Jonathon Niese (~$0.44 million)

RHP Kevin Millwood ($5-8 million)

RHP Aaron Harang ($5-8 million)

Other Pitching:

RHP Francisco Rodriguez ($11.5 million)

RHP David Aardsma ($3.8 million)

RHP Bobby Parnell (~$0.44 million)

RHP Mitch Boggs (~$0.44 million)

RHP Sean Green ($1 million)

LHP Mike O'Connor (~$0.44 million)

RHP Koji Uehara ($4 million)

Catchers:

C Josh Thole  (~$0.44 million)

C Jason Varitek ($1 million)

Infielders:

1B Ike Davis (~$0.44 million)

IF Daniel Murphy (~$0.44 million)

IF Justin Turner (~$0.44 million)

IF Jose Lopez ($3 million)

SS Jose Reyes ($11 million)

3B David Wright ($14 million)

Outfielders:

OF Angel Pagan ($5 million)

OF Carlos Beltan ($13 million)

OF Jason Bay ($16 million)

IF/OF Nick Evans (~$0.44 million)

OF Tony Gwynn ($1.0 million)

Other notables:

LHP Johan Santana ($22.5 million) (Disabled List)

RHP Ryota Igarashi ($1.75 million) (AAA)

LHP Dan Cortes (AAA)

MI Ruben Tejada (AAA)

RHP Dillon Gee (AAA)

LHP Pat Misch (AAA)

OF Jesus Feliciano (AAA)

RHP Jenrry Mejia (AAA)

OF Jesus Feliciano (AAA)

Now I did the crude math and I believe that adds to around $135 million, but I'm not completely sure. Second base would be an open competition between Daniel Murphy, Jose Lopez and Justin Turner, with Ruben Tejada and Reese Havens as darkhorses.

Mets Receive:

RHP Ricky Nolasco and UT Emilio Bonifacio

Marlins Receive:

1B/2B/3B Daniel Murphy, 3B Zach Lutz, OF Matt den Dekker, RHP Kyle Allen

Continue reading this post »

While Mets fans dream of Reese Havens and his big bat manning second for the future Mets, or Orlando Hudson aiding the 2011 Mets to playoff berth, My belief is that a platoon of Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner could be just as effective in 2011 as Orlando Hudson, and could make the need for Reese Havens more remote.

First, a couple notes about Orlando Hudson, who seems to be the favorite option around here:

He is 33. He is a switch hitter. He is known for being a consistent 2-3 WAR player who is above average at second base with both the bat and in the field.

Hudson spent 2008 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. According to UZR and Total Zone, he had a career worst defensive season, despite his rock solid offensive production. His UZR was a Castillo-esque -10.0, and his Total Zone was -7, which isn't any more optimistic. He managed to hit for a .358 wOBA, the second highest of his career (2007 was .361), which kept his value relatively high as he hit the free agent market. This offensive value, however, was fueled by a career high .341 BABIP, a number he had yet to produce and will likely never replicate.

Unable to find a team willing to invest in him long term with his age and apparently deteriorating defensive skills, Hudson signed a 1-year deal with the Dodgers. He produced a 2.9 WAR, which was more than double his 2008 number, with significantly improved defense. His offensive numbers weren't as gaudy, hitting for a .342 wOBA, but his defense proved that 2008 was an aberration. His UZR improved to -2.8. His power numbers decreased slightly, and he struck out a bit more often. His walk rate also rose.

Once again unable to find long term commitment, Hudson signed on with the Twins in 2010. At 32, he managed to have a fantastic defensive season. Where Hudson failed to produce was with his bat. Hudson continued his heightened K rate, and his ISO dropped to a career low. He posted a .320. wOBA Still, his defense brought the Twins 3.1 WAR, his second most valuable career season.

If the Mets were to sign Hudson, his low power numbers would likely continue, but his BABIP and K% may improve enough by moving back to the NL to put his wOBA closer to .330, in between his production with the Dodgers and Twins. His defense will likely be closer to 2009 than 2008 or 2010. In essence, a healthy Orlando Hudson should provide the Mets with a ~2.5 WAR at the age of 33, and will likely be relatively cheap at a 1 year $5 million deal.

I think a combo of Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner could provide that type of value at a lower price, and could reap more long term benefits.

Murphy, 26, is a left handed hitter with a career .330 wOBA that he can likely expand upon a bit if he builds on his improvements from 2009. Murphy's 2009 was very similar to Ike Davis's 2010. He began the year hitting very well, struggled miserably in May and June, began to adjust in July and August, and raked in September. What may be seen as alarming is Murphy's 6-1 K-to-BB rate in August and September, but I would expect his walk rate to increase to closer to 6-7% (Which is similar to his overall career MLB numbers as well as his 2007 St. Lucie numbers) as a more reasonable expectation. Based on his recovery appearances in A+ and AAA ball in 2010, it doesn't seem as though his injury has affected his hitting. Would he to return full season I'd expect a .270/.330/.450 line out of him.

This type of offensive production is good, but his defense remains a question. He is not a natural second baseman and would essentially be learning on the fly. However, his defense at second base may be close to league average. He was a scratch defender in the minors at third base, and was very good defensively at first. He is clearly able to man the infield. If he can translate those skills to second base, he should be plenty.

Murphy himself, however, is a bigger question mark than Hudson, and his upside seems to be an average year out of Hudson. He also does poorly against left handed pitchers. This is where Justin Turner helps. Turner, also 26, likely doesn't have the kind of defensive ability to be a full time second baseman, but he is passable enough to get his licks at the position. Turner, however, has struggled in limited MLB time. The silver lining in this, though, is that he hits lefties very very well. With Buffalo in 2010, Turner managed to hit for an .845 OPS against right handers, but he shined for a 1.037 OPS against lefties. Even in his 40 MLB plate appearances, Turner's wOBA against lefties is double that against righties. I don't doubt that as a platoon man, he could hit for a ~.350 wOBA in ~150 PA's vs. left-handed pitchers.

I think a Murphy/Turner platoon overall could provide slightly worse defense but slightly better offense than signing Orlando Hudson, and would be $4 million cheaper. It helps that both are entering their age 26 seasons as well. The upside could be greater, as Murphy and Turner both have very impressive minor league track records. They are controllable, combining for 750 PAs, and they are versatile, both able to play corner infield as well as second. For the Mets long-term and short-term needs, those two make more sense than Hudson.

So I made a post a couple days ago outlining a pretty ridiculous trade, and it generated a lot of cool discussion about FIP and xFIP, weighing risks, the value of our prospects, the philosophy of fans about the farm amongst other things. So I thought I'd generate another ridiculous move in aims of getting more commentary for the teams involved.

Check this out:

Mets get RHP James Shields, RHP Matt Garza, C Kelly Shoppach and SS Jason Bartlett

Rays get SS Jose Reyes, 1B Lucas Duda 1B/OF Nick Evans, OF Sean Ratliff

Reasoning for Rays: The Rays just made the playoffs, and despite losing Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena still have a very strong team for 2011. Jose Reyes would help Desmond Jennings in filling the absence of Crawford in the order, and is a significant improvement over Jason Bartlett in a variety of ways. The Rays would have to take on his $11 million salary for 2011, but in losing the four players they do the salary evens out pretty nicely. In addition they receive Lucas Duda, who could be a darkhorse candidate to replace Pena for 2011, Nick Evans, who would be a valuable player in aiding Lucas Duda at 1B and Matt Joyce at DH, and Sean Ratliff, a corner outfield prospect with great power potential. Additionally, they gain two first round draft picks with Reyes' departure.

Reasoning for Mets: Reyes will likely demand a pretty heft extension, but with his main tool in jeopardy this may not be the most attractive option for the Mets, who simply cannot count on him as being an asset. The Mets in this case would have gaps at shortstop and second base. They could either take their chance with Bartlett or non-tender him and head after the 2010 Twins double play combo in J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson, while developing Reese Havens and Ruben Tejada in the minors, and having Justin Turner be a valuable MLB backup. They'd gain two very good pitchers to fill out their rotation in the absence of Santana without paying too steep a cost, and gain a good backup catcher and platoon partner for Josh Thole. Kelly Shoppach has hit at a career .286/.381/.568 clip against AL left-handers. Lucas Duda, Sean Ratliff and Nick Evans would all be a minimal loss to the Mets, who have a wealth of corner position hitting prospects.

This really should be a fanshot, but they're making it annoying to format it without including a stupid link or image. Please forgive me for this offense. It won't happen often.

I'm just gonna throw the proposal out there and will discuss reasoning in the comments section with whoever questions it:

RHP Zack Greinke and RHP Luke Hochevar to the Mets for

RHP Jenrry Mejia, OF Fernando Martinez, OF Darrell Ceciliani, 2B Reese Havens, LHP Robert Carson

OR

SS Wilmer Flores, RHP Jenrry Mejia, 2B Reese Havens, OF Fernando Martinez

Just a thread where you post ur FA predictions for this off-season.

Mine:

Cliff Lee - Yankees

Carl Crawford - Red Sox

Jayson Werth - Yankees

Victor Martinez - Tigers

Adrian Beltre - Red Sox (wouldn't rule out A's, Cardinals or Padres, though)

Derek Jeter - Yankees

Orlando Hudson - Mets

Juan Uribe - Tigers

Jose Lopez - Cardinals

Paul Konerko - White Sox

Adam Dunn - Braves

Derrek Lee - Angels

Mark Ellis - Athletics

Felipe Lopez - White Sox

Jorge De La Rosa - Dodgers

Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers

Magglio Ordonez - Dodgers

John Buck - Dodgers

Carlos Pena - Nationals

Hisanori Takahashi - Mets

Javier Vazquez - Mets

Chad Qualls - Mets

Rodrigo Lopez - Mets

David DeJesus - Royals

Xavier Nady - Nationals

Coco Crisp - A's

Jorge Cantu - Cubs

Jake Westbrook - Cardinals

Bronson Arroyo - Reds

Aaron Harang - Dodgers

Jon Garland - Rockies

Ted Lilly - Braves

Eric Hinske - Braves

Adam LaRoche - White Sox

Lance Berkman - Rangers

Lyle Overbay - Blue Jays

Vlad Guerrero - Orioles

Andruw Jones - Rays

Aramis Ramirez - Cubs

via www.homeruncards.com

As one of his inaugural signings in an aim to rebuild the New York Mets, Omar Minaya went looking for a pristine outfield bat. The previous GM, Jim Duquette, took on a similar mission before the 2004 season, and his target was Vladimir Guerrero, the ex-Expo who's Hall of Fame destined. Guerrero surely would have been the face of the Mets franchise for years to come. However, Guerrero went and signed with the Anaheim Angels. In light of this error, Minya went out the following season and acquired Carlos Beltran. Having Beltran had its perks: He played a more valuable position and did so with grace and fantastic defensive ability, and he was by no means a slouch with the bat. Beltran also went out and had two of some of the best single seasons any Met has ever had, donning one of the biggest and most recognizable facial blemishes in team history. Despite a disappointing 2005, and one curveball, Carlos Beltran has been a fantastic investment. 

Despite this, it seems Carlos may have overstayed his welcome. This isn't to say Mets fans universally hate him, but he has had his bouts with injury, has an expensive contract and needs a fresh start on a team that needs a corner outfielder. The question is, who will take him? At first glance, Carlos is by no means an attractive option. The Mets tried to dump him at the trade deadline to no success, and his numbers since his mid-season return have been mediocre at-best. So where does his value lie?

While things seem dismal, it appears obvious that Carlos will continue to be useful at the dish. Coming off of his injury he came to a slow start in July and August, but his .356 wOBA in September suggests that there is hope for his bat. His defense has slowed in centerfield, but there is little to suggest that he can't play an adequate corner outfield at the very least.  There is still a lot to like here. On the downside, Beltran is owed $18.5 million, and any move would require the Mets to eat around half of it. Even then, they'll receive little of value in return.

In contrast to the rest of the outfield market, Beltran is actually a pretty good buy-low option for a contending team looking for role players to fill out the roster. Teams looking for outfielders this year include the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Reds, Twins and possibly even the Cardinals. Guaranteed outfield free agents on the market include Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and little else. There are few outfielders to go around. Teams will be interested in cashing in on Beltran and potentially getting a 2.0-3.0 WAR season out of him and 2 first rounders. Especially when Crawford is on the Red Sox and Werth is on the Yankees.

What the Mets choose to do with the extra cash and the corner outfield spot is unclear. It's unlikely that they go after a big name like Werth or Crawford, especially with so many holes to fill and improvements to make. There is alleged interest in trading for Jacoby Ellsbury, and it is POSSIBLE that David DeJesus and/or Cody Ross hit the market, both of which could be useful additions. I don't see the Mets eating $10 million of Beltran's contract just to give out $6 million to a replacement... It would make more sense both financial and from a baseball standpoint to keep him around and milk him for what he's worth, and claim draft picks after, unless they can acquire a young, controllable replacement at the level of Ellsbury.

Between Luis Castillo's bad performance and yearn to start, as well as the injury and potential surgery to top MI prospect Reese Havens, It seems pretty clear to me that the Mets are (and should) be very active on the free agent market for second basemen. The budget allows for very little flexibility, with the absence of John Maine, Jeff Francoeur, Rod Barajas, Alex Cora, Pedro Feliciano and Fernando Tatis being replaced by pay raises to David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana and Jason Bay. Presumably Angel Pagan as well. With this in mind, the Mets will likely look to dump current second baseman Castillo somewhere before making any transactions for his replacement. 

Finding a team to take on Luis Castillo and at least some of his contract (because that's all the organization is really worried about...) will be no easy task. This is the common knowledge for both Mets fans as well as the rest of baseball. Castillo isn't very good. On the other hand, Castillo really isn't as bad relative to his position as one might think he is. The following players make up this year's free agent class at second base:

Willie Bloomquist (33)
Mark Ellis (34) - $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Bill Hall (31) - $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Orlando Hudson (33)
Omar Infante (29) - $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Akinori Iwamura (32)
Adam Kennedy (35) - $2MM club option
Felipe Lopez (31)
Julio Lugo (35)

Jose Lopez (26)
Kaz Matsui (35)
Aaron Miles (34)
Nick Punto (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Juan Uribe (31)

Outside of Mark Ellis, Juan Uribe and Orlando Hudson, we see a whole pile of nothing. The only credible players outside of those two are Omar Infante and Adam Kennedy, both with extremely affordable team options. The rest are replacement level, or incredibly volatile, such as Felipe Lopez or Jose Lopez.

Castillo is actually a more attractive option then most of the market. If the Mets offer to take on half his contract he can be had essentially for free on a 1-year $3 million deal to any team that takes him. He walks a lot, strikes out very little, and most importantly showed defensive value in 2010 according to both UZR and Total Zone, which put him right in the middle of the pack in second basemen. Teams like to know what they're buying, and in this case they have that in Luis Castillo. The Padres, Twins, A's, Tigers, Royals, Rockies and Cardinals are all rather weak at second base, so they may take flyers.

With Castillo leaving, the Mets do not necessarily HAVE to turn to the free agent market to replace him. The newly-acquired Justin Turner, who is by no means automatically a AAAA player, has had success all throughout the minors with the bat, and will be 26 at the start of next year. He has had no success in his 40 MLB at-bats, but if he can even SOMEWHAT replicate his minor league offensive numbers, he is a weapon. Ruben Tejada can play a pretty good defensive second base, but his bat is very questionable. Daniel Murphy has been the general cry amongst Mets fans for a while, and he was trying out the position before acquiring a season ending injury. At the end of 2009 Murphy began to rap pretty well, and also showed some pretty good athleticism at first, however his long time without playing and lack of experience arouses skepticism.

No internal option is ESPECIALLY attractive, but a Murphy/Tejada platoon or giving Tuner the position is a possibility. 

The Mets options on the trade market are pretty exhausted... With the D'Backs and Reds building up for 2011 playoff pushes, Brandon Phillips and Kelly Johnson are practically untouchable.

This leaves the Big 3 in the free agency: Mark Ellis, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Hudson.

Mark Ellis has been a career long Athletic, starting pretty much his entire career due to his superior defense. His bat comes and goes, but his incredible talent for the position keeps him valuable. He will be 34 in 2011. His defense would be a solid addition to the Mets team, as most of the pitchers on the Mets' staff do not have high strikeout numbers. However; his lack of hitting value doesn't help the Mets offense, which has been one of the worst in baseball. By no means is he a bad signing. If he can be had on a 1 year deal worth $4-5 million, it's worth looking into at the very least. His presence could definitely up the value of Pelfrey and Dickey.

Juan Uribe was once a top prospect in the Rockies organization. He's an athletic free-swinger who hits for power and is more than competent at just about any infield positions. His all-or-nothing approach at the plate is his downfall. He often pops out or hits weak ground balls, and walks minimally. He struggled at the White Sox starting shortstop, and was picked up by the San Francisco Giants on a 2-year deal. Since then, Uribe's value has gotten significantly higher. 2009 was the best offensive season he's had since his rookie season, and in 2010 he had a career-high walk rate and hit 20 homers. Uribe has shown defensive prowess at second base, third base, as well as shortstop, and his pop would be welcome in the Mets lineup, if Citifield doesn't take it away, that is. At his best, Uribe can be an MLB regular at 2B, 3B or SS. At worst, he is a useful bench player. Getting Uribe on a 2-year deal would be a good risk/reward move by the Mets.

Orlando Hudson is the most popular option amongst Mets fans it seems. He has signed reasonable contracts throughout his career, he can play second base very well defensively, and he isn't a slouch with the bat either. Hudson has signed a pair of 1-year deals through 2009 and 2010, and getting him on one would certainly be a good add for the Mets to bolster their second base position, which has never really gotten any value outside of Jose Valentin's fantastic surprise 2006, since Edgardo Alfonzo manned the position. Hudson's offensive value doesn't include hitting for power, so Citifield most likely won't diminish it, and the move back to the National League should up his offensive numbers a bit.

All three free agent second basemen would be pluses for the Mets, who need any upgrade they can get with the absence of Johan Santana.

If the Mets were to make no roster moves from here on out, this is what the 2011 25-man roster would look like:

Pitchers:

Johan Santana

Mike Pelfrey

Jon Niese

R.A. Dickey

Oliver Perez

Pat Misch

John Maine

Hisanori Takahashi

Ryota Igarashi

Fernando Nieve

Bobby Parnell

Francisco Rodriguez

Catchers:

Josh Thole

Mike Nickeas

Infielders:

Ike Davis

Luis Castillo

Jose Reyes

David Wright

Joaquin Arias

Luis Hernandez

Outfielders:

Jason Bay

Angel Pagan

Carlos Beltran

Chris Carter

Lucas Duda

At first glance, I'm actually not COMPLETELY repulsed by this roster. Especially considering the kind of minor league depth the team is developing. Assuming Oliver Perez ends up the fifth starter, Takahashi, Misch and Maine have the ability to step in and do just as terrible a job as Ollie.

That being said, there are some holes that need to be filled. Starting from the top down:

1. The fifth starter. The Mets have the fortune of having two young, fireballing righties who will likely be in need of starting jobs, in Jenrry Mejia and Matt Harvey. However, neither of them have NEARLY enough minor league experience to be considered for the major league spot. At the same time, they may be sniffing the bigs in mid-summer, so it's highly ill-advised that the Mets try to wrap somebody up long term. Pitchers are never a sure thing, and the Mets do have some depth in spot starters, so they should try and get creative like they did with R.A. Dickey.

The Mets could go very high risk-reward and chase after Chris Young, who, considering the Padres rotation and financial situations at the moment, will not have his option picked up. If he can return to his 2007 form, Chris Young is an ace. If he's ready to pitch in the bigs by May, or even June, he could be a major asset. The same goes for Brandon Webb, however Webb's longer track record of success suggests that he'll want a pretty big contract.

Another consideration would be ex-Phillie Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder. He can provide slightly above replacement level pitching for a little while, which is more than Oliver Perez or John Maine can say, but both Hisanori Takahashi and Pat Misch are both capable of pitching at Moyer-like levels, perhaps even Dillon Gee.

Javier Vazquez also intrigues me. He's a high-strikeout, low walk pitcher who doesn't allow a whole lot of hard contact. He's always healthy, and his only achilles heel is the home run, which makes me wonder why the Yankees wanted him so badly, considering their ballpark. A move back to the National League and out of Yankee Stadium could have Javy returning to his old self. His value is at its lowest, with an ERA at 4.86, and and FIP of 5.29, and he has just been kicked out of the Yankee rotation. He could be a very interesting buy-low for the Mets, and I think he may be looking to sign a 1 year deal worth $5-6 million.

An option that very much intrigues me is David Bush. The right hander has spent his career in the arbitration process and this year is his first as an MLB free agent. Last year he made the most he ever has, a little over $4,000,000. His tenure with the Brewers, outside of his very good 2006, has pretty much been of a backend starter. Bush's fastball is a very slow pitch, and he gets by now on mixing his 4 pitches with good command. Bush has a track record of very good control that has kept him a major leaguer without spectacular velocity or movement. He is a fly ball pitcher that has suffered through a not-too-fantastic ballpark to pitch in with pretty terrible outfielders backing him up. An outfield consisting of Pagan and Beltran in the spacious Citifield could do him good, and make him a more than passable 5 starter in New York, most likely not costing more than $2-3 million.

2. The 6th and 7th bullpen men. Rodriguez, Parnell, Igarashi, Takahashi, and Perez will likely staff the bullpen next year, and the only two MLB pitchers left are Maine and Nieve, both of whom shouldn't be on the team, and will likely not see Mets 2011 Spring Training. The Mets are left with the choices of internal options such Raul Valdez, Sean Green, Chad Cordero or John Lujan, or the oddities on the free agent market such as Brian Shouse. It's hard to picture the Mets going after a big name setup man, with Parnell and Takahashi around, although the Mets have shown some interest in Scott Downs. Personally I'd like the team to use some minor league depth to fill the void, particularly Lujan and Valdez, and perhaps sign a reliever or two to AAA.

3. Backup catcher. The Mets need a vet around to manage the pitching staff and mentor Josh Thole. I think the Mets should bring Henry Blanco back around to do the job. Gerald Laird could also fit the bill. If the Mets are feeling anxious about giving Thole 100+ starts next year, they could try to add on a good hitting catcher such as David Ross or Miguel Olivo to split time with the young Thole.

4. Second Base. Luis Castillo isn't very good. This much is clear. But glancing at the free agent market, the options aren't much better, and even if we somehow manage to ditch Luis Castillo and his $6 million due this year, the options still suck pretty hard. The best would be Jose Lopez, who in all likelihood won't be returning to the Mariners considering the $4.5 million price tag of re-adding him. Defensively he's a decent second baseman and a good third baseman but the bat is always a question. He never walks and while he has power potential he couldn't manage to knock 10 homers this year. Options such as Kaz Matsui and Akinori Iwamura aren't any more attractive. The best thing the Mets can do is try and trade pretty big prospects for a second baseman such as Brandon Phillips or Kelly Johnson. I can't imagine Phillips being traded with the Reds as contenders and losing the mammoth contracts of Harang and Arroyo, but he'd be the perfect fit for the Mets. Kelly Johnson is also very very good.

5. Backup middle infielder. Joaquin Arias sucks, as does Luis Hernandez. Moving on. I think the most suitable solution to backup the middle infield is Justin Turner. The Mets should avoid an Alex Cora-like signing at all costs. RubenTejada will be starting in AAA and Reese Havens in AA, so perhaps adding a player such as Kaz Matsui to the minor league roster could help, but between Turner, Tejada, Josh Satin and Havens the Mets have good depth here.

6. Fourth Outfielder. One of Chris Carter, Lucas Duda or Nick Evans on the MLB Roster could be very beneficial. They all have proven themselves as sluggers in the minors and in case of injury to Bay or Beltran in the corners they could come in handy. However; the Mets need someone who can man all the outfield positions with good defense. In my opinion Jody Gerut fits the bill pretty pretty well, and he should be able to be had on a minor league contract as well. Alfredo Amezaga could also most likely be available for a minor league deal. Getting both would definitely give the Mets near infinite outfield depth, with Bay, Pagan, Beltran, Carter/Duda/Evans, Gerut, Amezaga, Nieuwenhuis and Martinez.

Making a winning roster for 2011 definitely won't involve any big names. The Mets automatically gain $20 million on their payroll for next year, and although monetary annoyances such as Cora, Tatis, Feliciano, Maine and Frenchy won't be around, that still only makes up for around $10 million of it. If K-rod's contract gets lowered this could help the Mets a little as well, but they still have no shot at getting back down to $120 million.

What I think will happen:

The Mets will deal Luis Castillo at some point, and I think they'll settle upon Juan Cruz as the best man for the swapping. At that point they'll negotiate Orlando Hudson to a 2 year, $10 million deal, as no other team seems extremely interested.

They sign Jason Bay to a 3 year, $33 million deal. The Sox found no opening in their roster for him, so they decided to leave him to New York. With no other team willing to go quite as high, the Mets get a decent deal out of him.

The Mets decide to go with Joel Pineiro for 2 years $16 million with some option situation for the third year.

Bengie Molina agrees to a 1 year $3 million contract. He believe he can get more in the next offseason.

Fernando Tatis is re-added to the roster, and the Mets look to Juan Castro as a backup middle infielder.

Lineup: Reyes, Hudson, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Molina, Murphy

Bench: Tatis, Blanco, Cora, Castro, Pagan

Rotation: Santana, Pineiro, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez

Bullpen: Rodriguez, Escobar, Parnell, Green, Cruz, Feliciano, Igarashi

What I hope will happen:

The Mets participate in a three-way trade to end up with Aaron Harang and David DeJesus. The deal I proposed earlier in the FanPosts obviously has too many moving parts to be realistic by any means, but I think some of it could have merit. The Reds would receive Maine and Hochevar, the Royals would receive Castillo, Dickerson and Francoeur, and the Mets would receive DeJesus, Harang and Cruz. Prospects would be moved as well, most likely offensive prospects from the Mets' farm to Kansas City, and an arm like Beaulac or Carson to the Reds

The Mets keep the catching situation as is.

They add Orlando Hudson to a 2 year, $10 million deal with a third year club option

With DeJesus and Pagan, they pass up and Bay and focus on pitching. With Maine, Francoeur and Castillo gone, the cost of Harang pays for itself, meaning the Mets still have some money to work with. Santana, Harang, Pelfrey, Perez is the top 4 of the rotation, and the Mets either sign Sheets to a 1 year, $6 million deal backloaded with option money, John Smoltz to a 1 year, $2 million deal, or Garland to a 2 year, $12 milion contract.

Adam Everett, Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez are added for the bench

Lineup: Reyes, Hudson, Beltran, Wright, DeJesus, Pagan, Blanco/Santos, Murphy

Bench: Tatis, Everett, Blanco/Santos, Chavez, Cora

Rotation: Santana, Harang, Pelfrey, Sheets/Smoltz/Garland, Perez

Bullpen: Rodriguez, Escobar, Parnell, Green, Cruz, Feliciano, Igarashi