SB Nation User Blog: MGM

From Complaint to Compliment

MGM — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:53:35 -0000

So,

I was pondering the players we have acquired this offseason, and thinking about the now-standard MSM complaint that we didn't address all of our needs in the offseason (in the echo-chamber, this means front 7).

But I stopped right there, with the standard MSM line about the front 7.

Because theirs is an interesting line of thinking. According to the MSM, we have certain "needs" that must be "filled" accordingly, and if this formual is followed, the results will be a happy and successful team. So, to follow this line of thinking a bit further, the strategy that is generally offered is to:

1. diagnose a need

2. find players that address this need

3. sign/ draft these players

ok. got it. done and done. easy as pie. In fact, I think we've done that before, so let's check out our previous administration's history in addressing needs.

2007-

step one, diagnose problem-we need a pass rush!

step two, find players- well, we tried to sign Patrick Kearny (best available pass rusher) but Seatlle outbid us. That's ok, we've got the draft

step three, sign/ draft players- First round- man, we almost missed out on a first-round grade pass rusher, but we traded up and got him! Welcome, Jarvis Moss. And, just so that we have extra depth and another chance for a great pass rusher, we got Tim Crowder in the 2nd, plus we traded up and got a troubled but promising DT in the fourth- Welcome, Marcus Thomas.

Success! We addressed our needs!

(flash forward to 2009)

hmm...

Well, as the above example illustrates, this line of thinking is fraught with significant problems. FIrst, as HT so eloquently wrote at the time of the 2009 draft, each draft pick is like a lottery ticket (with a significant investment) in that you want to maximize your probabilities of getting a good player. When you specify particular needs above all others (aka tunnel vision) you ignore the probabilities in favor of particular positional needs. So, you feel trapped if your position of need is involved in a draft run before your pick- you either reach for a worse player or trade up to select during the run, minimizing your chances of further gains later in the draft.

However, there is another significant problem with this line of thinking- it neglects the teaching aspect of the draft.

What is the draft? A chance to bring in new young players to your team. Well, let me re-state that sentence with a particular emphasis. The draft is a chance to bring in new YOUNG players to your team.

What is a young player? A player who has played in college, probably successfully, and must learn how to play in the NFL. Again, for emphasis, a young player must, with very few exceptions, LEARN how to play in the NFL.

So how does a young player learn how to play in the NFL? (and yes, I'm almost done with the rhetorical questions) Well, that is the most important question, and the question that I believe Shanny failed to answer successfully.

Much like any profession, there are some individuals with such significant gifts of focus, work ethic and talent that they will succeed regardless of their surroundings. These individuals are like the golden tickets in the lottery of the draft- everyone tries to figure out who they are and then fights to bring them to their team. Recent examples include Calvin Johnson and Peyton Manning- players that went to losing organizations and succeeded despite their surroundings.

However, for every Calvin Johnson or Peyton Manning, there are dozens of players selected in the draft that may or may not become successful, based laregly on how they are taught. Again, this is like any profession, where an individual must be given the tools to succeed before they experience success.

Every NFL coach understands this, hence the term 'coach them up'. Coaching is essentially teaching.

However, coaches are not the only, or even the most significant teachers of young players. Players, and specifically veterans, are often the most significant teachers of young players. For every hour a young player spends with the coaches (studying film, discussing technique, etc.), 3 hours are spent in the weight room, or the locker room, or on the field, where the players learn from other players.

They learn how to prepare, how to train, how to conduct themselves professionally. They learn about the lifestyle (good or bad), and the business of the NFL. And they learn this all from other players.

So, to return for a moment to the example of our 2007 player acquisitions, we diagnosed a need and addressed it by bringing in several young players at the position of need. Success, right? Well, who is going to teach these young players about the NFL? Who will be showing these young player the mental habits and training needed to be an elite athlete? Will they be teaching each other? Or will the players already on the team, players that have already been proven to be unsuccessful (hence the need in the first place) be teaching these players?

This is how one creates the dreaded "leadership void". Without successful NFL veterans to teach young NFL draft picks, the young players either teach themselves (the blind leading the blind) , or learn unsuccessful habits from unsuccessful players. And the leadership qualities of the rookies themselves, qualities which are analyzed and saught after by every NFL executive, are of little help unless the young players learn success first.

Enter Josh Mcdaniels/ Brian Xanders.

First acts of player acquisition (FA)-

Bring in successful veterans at positions of need (RB, LB, DT, CB, S). According to MSM, we overloaded a bit, maybe, with over-acheiving players (i.e. players who have exceeded their natural talents through hard work and focus) instead of elite athletes. Examples- Brian Dawkins, Andra Davis, Renaldo Hill, Andre Goodman.

Bring in players familiar with environment of success(i.e. players from Patriots organization, etc.) - Examples- Lamont Jordon, Lonnie paxton, Jabar Gaffner.

MSM Media response- ok, addressed some needs, now need work on front 7. Time for the draft!

Draft Day-

Players acquired (first day)- Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers, Alfonso Smith, Darcel Mcbath, RIchard Quinn.

MSM- WHAT????- These players are at the same positions as the veterans acquired!! Why didn't the Broncos fill their needs???

Because this is the genius of the Mcdaniels/ Xanders strategy. They understand that every NFL rookie must do one thing- learn. And, though Mcdaniels seems a very confident coach/teacher, he also understands that there is much he cannot teach. And so, for that, he brought in the best coaching staff this side of the Mississippi.

Player coaches for Knowshon Moreno- Lamont Jordan (patriots vet.), Correll Buckhalter, (Westbrook's caddy for several years) and JJ Arrington (Super Bowl, 2009)

Player coaches for Robert Ayers- Andra Davis (known for leadership/ character), Darrel Reid (Colts),

Player coaches for Alfonso Smith- Champ Bailey (HOF- bound), Andre Goodman (7 year vet, successful 2008 Dophins secondary)

Player coaches for Darcel Mcbath- Brian Dawkins (HOF-bound), Renaldo Hill (8 year vet, successful 2008 Doplphins secondary)

Player Coaches for Richard Quinn- Daniel Graham (team captain)

Not bad, eh?

Contrast that to 2007...

Player coaches for Jarvis Moss/ Tim Crowder- Elvis Dumervil (2nd year player) and... yeah, you get the point

So, when anyone asks me about our 2009 Draft I can say 2 things with certainty

1. We picked the best lottery tickets available (i.e. we didn't reach for positions of need)

2. And we made sure to put each of our high round picks (those with significant investment) into an environment for success.

There are, of course, other benefits to this strategy (i.e. young rookies eventually replacing the aging vets for significant cap savings, etc.) but, to me, we succeeded mightily in giving our rookies the best possible chance for success. And that, not filling "needs", should be our ultimate goal.

So,

something tells me that in the near future, the the MSM will stop complaining about the 2009 Broncos draft and start complimenting it. They will compliment our rookies for the leadership they exhibit. They will compliment their work ethic and their character. And for learning how to succeed from successful veterans.

They will compliment Mcdaniels and Xanders for a winning strategy. And so should we.

Now, let's go Broncos and bring on the minicamps!

Lack of a running game

MGM — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:09:13 -0000

So,

I was pondering the whole question of our outlook for 2009 and beyond, after reading all the wonderful materials and statistics that have been compiled and analyzed on this site over the past several months. But, I realized that there is one aspect of the 2008 Denver Broncos that is being largely ignored.

We did not have a consistent running game.

Many are now blaming this on the coaching, which I am sure contributed to the problem, but the reality is that the players themselves, the RBs, simply did not get it done when it mattered last year.

The lone exception to our otherwise terrible or injured RBs, Peyton Hillis, flashed across our Broncos universe for a few weeks and completely transformed the team. Our defense started playing better. Although many attribute this to the young defensive players hitting the field over the veterans, I am sure that the consistent running game greatly helped the defense. A consistent running attack does 3 crucial things

1. convert 3rd down in the red zone

2. score touchdowns

3. keep our defense off the field

Without the ability to do these things, an offense cannot be successful. And if your offense is not successful, then your defense gets worse and the the team cannot win. Jeremy Bates' schemes caught defenses off guard for a few weeks; however, once the def. coordinators realized that the 2008 version of the broncos could not, or would not, run the ball (as almost all previous Shanahan-led Broncos could), our offense ceased to be successful.

Again, the lone exception to the above was the time when Peyton Hillis was our starting RB which, btw, took the Broncos to their best record of the year, 8-5. His injury robbed the team of the necessary skills to win games, and we dropped to 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

Granted, this is a simplification, since other factors were certainly involved (changing personnel on defense, health, and the brief success of other backs on roster). However, anyone who watched the Broncos last season must agree that the team's offense fundamentally changed when Peyton Hillis was lost for the season.

My personal theory is that Shanahan's schemes are so integrated with the running game that, without it's success, he was unable to adapt and change the offense to suit the lack of personnel at RB. However, there are not many coaches, no matter what level, that can win without a high-quality defense or running game.

And here is the tough part.

Jay Cutler is often blamed for the very 3 qualities I listed above- converting 3rd down in the red zone, scoring touchdowns, and keeping our defense off the field (i.e. not throwing interceptions). In fact, without a running game or a defense, there are almost no QBs in the NFL that can succeed. Especially not QBs in their second year full year. So, although his statistics do not look great on paper, we all know that if Cutler had not been traded and McJaygate had never happened, we would be finding statistics to support that this, his 3rd full year and first with a new offensive guru, would be his time to fully blossom. We would come up with numbers comparing Cutler''s first 2 1/2 years to Hall of Fame QBs, and extrapolating to show how the running game would have impacted Cutler's numbers.

The failure of our offense last year was not the failure of Jay Cutler. It was the failure of our vaunted and long-established running game that killed our offense, and thus our season last year. We had only 1 type of back, and none (aside from Hillis) that could convert a 3rd and 1, or bang it into the end-zone

Ironically, it is Mcdaniels who has seen how much the quality of our personnel at RB hurt us last year. His first significant acts of player acquisition, in free agency, were focused largely on RBs, and at a time before McJay. And my guess is that, had we never traded Jay Cutler, we still would have drafted Knowshon at 12 (how would the MSM have liked THAT move?) instead of a defensive player. The quality of our RBs and our overall running game hurt us more than most anyone is talking about now. Kudos to Mcdaniels for recognizing this.

However, we no longer have our quarterback. And, whatever anyone says now about the coming season(s), is only conjecture. My guess is that he may still be a great QB in the NFL, and that he stood a great chance success here in Denver. But, he is no longer a part of the Broncos organization.

Some of my other personal guesses are that Mcdaniels will have success here in Denver, Cutler will have success in Chicago, and each will have at least one moment of regret about not having worked together. But those are just guesses. The future is still entirely unknown.

However, I do know that the lack of a running game cost the 2008 Denver Broncos their season. It might have even cost the 2009-20XX Denver Broncos, if Mcdaniels is not successful. Because if we had a successful running game last season, Shanahan would still be coach, Cutler would still be QB, and we would all be getting excited about training camp coming up. We might have even been very successful next season. I don't know, nor does anyone else.

So here's to an increased focus on RBs. Here's to the coach, Mcdaniels, who recognized this incredible need. And here's to the success of the Broncos in 2009 and beyond. But, it's hard not to look at this and wonder what might have been, had Shanahan found that one healthy back.

Report - Denver Broncos Extend D.J. Williams

MGM — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 03:06:43 -0000

Hat tip to MGM for this FanPost. This is great news for the Broncos. They needed to reward Williams for not only being a great player on the field, but for all the moving around they put him through. Williams, who has been unhappy with all the position changes, kept most of his disdain under wraps and today the Broncos have seemingly rewarded him. Congratulations to Williams, the Broncos, and the fans, who will get to see D.J. become one of the best Linebackers in the NFL! -- TSG

Hey all, just wanted to share the word that D.J. has apparently signed an extension with the Broncos for 5 years. I think this is a great way to spend our cap space- lock up one of our premium defenders before he hits free agency this winter and ensure that he doesn't drive up his price even more with his sure-to-be stellar upcoming season.

Adam Schefter reports on NFL.com -

"During the offseason, Denver revamped its linebackers. Now the Broncos are revamping one of their stalwart linebackers’ salaries. Saturday night, Denver signed linebacker D.J. Williams to a five-year, $32 million extension that included $13 million in guaranteed money.

Williams had been scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Instead, he now will become the highest-paid linebacker in NFL history without a Pro Bowl appearance."

Now let's bring on the Raiders!!

Who's Drafting Broncos? (FF)

MGM — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:08:58 -0000

Hey all,

Just wondering, for all you fellow Fantasy Footballers/ Broncos fans, who managed to draft their studly Broncos this year and in which round. I just had my main money league draft last night, and my heart skipped a beat whenever I thought someone else might steal one of the precious available Broncos. Especially this year- I mean we all know Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are going to blow up, and what could possibly be sweeter than knowing that they'll pitching and catching touchdowns all year as a member of our (colorfully named) fantasy squads.

Anyway, I managed to show some restraint in my twelve team league and still nab Brandon Marshall in the 3rd round, Jay Cutler in the 5th, and Andre Hall in the 9th. I was tempted to take Matt Prater, but I got another Colorado product in Mason Crosby, and, well, the defense is just a little too scary still. Anyway, let's hear about the rest of the Broncos being drafted, and, as always, GO BRONCOS!!!

I Like the Raiders

MGM — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:04:52 -0000

Ok, now that I have your attention I would like to preface this fanpost with the statement that, though this is my first written entry on MHR, I have been a rabid Broncos fan for my entire life (not even remotely a Raider's fan, though the title will make more sense later in the post). I only discovered MHR at the beginning of this offseason but have been stuck by the consistently insightful and knowledgeable commentary offered on this site. I am incredibly grateful to all the wonderful contributors for their efforts in providing so much quality analysis to those of us lost in the ignorance of network and mainstream content.

However, there is one consistent trend amongst our fans that has troubled me recently, highlighted particularly by the recent reaction on this site to Javon Walker's robbery. etc. Although this has not been the exclusive reaction, I have read many comments and fanposts condemning Javon for his recent actions and truly wishing him ill. This does not surprise me even if it does show a lack of empathy, because it is part of a larger tendency of all fans to personally attack people who wear the uniform of a hated team.

To me, this is the most dangerous aspect of becoming a sports fan. As a Broncos fan, I have caught myself many times truly hating the Raiders, Chargers, and Colts. I have been happy to see the Raiders descend to the level of a pack of rats in the AFC, to see Peyton denied a ring (now a thing of the past), and even (much to my own chagrin) to see Philip Rivers leave a game because of injury.

This is the real moral quandary of Broncos fandom. Much like in fantasy football people will quietly, or even openly, root for an opposing team's players to become injured during a game, Broncos fans cannot help but be happy to see the players of rival teams falling and failing. When a former Bronco/ current Raider is in the news for having helped himself to be robbed, we cheer and shout that he deserved it. When a rival teams quarterback is injured, we laugh and say that's what you get for trying to humiliate our quarterback.

Yet, however natural this tendency may be, I personally do not ever want my own actions to be full of this kind of spite and hate. Javon Walker experienced the kind of tragedy that I hope many of us have never, and will never, experience. No matter his wealth or prominence, he did not deserve to have a good friend die in his lap. No one does. And though it is true that he has not yet reacted to this tragedy with maturity, it is my sincerest hope that he eventually will.

I would like to think that in daily life we choose to wish people well, not ill. Even when people have wronged us,we often find a way to forgive them, or at least to avoid seeking their harm. Every religion of which I am aware preaches forgiveness and empathy. So why should this not apply to the Raiders?

I am not saying we should root for the Raiders, not at all. I will never hope for any team to beat the Broncos, not even for a draft pick. But that is not the same as actively, and hatefully, rooting for another team to fail. I hope Javon can get over his grief and catch 80 balls again someday, as long as 15 of them aren't against the Broncos. I hope Al Davis is eventually able to leave the game with a shred of dignity, as long as that dignity is not derived from a victory over the Broncos.

And I hope that we Broncos fans can be the classiest, most enlightened fans in the sport by never wishing harm for someone, no matter how much they may seemingly deserve it. There are real people in every uniform, people as deserving of happiness as we are. I hope to never forget that.

Now Let's Go Broncos!!!