
MMotherwell
Apr 26, 2009 May 31, 2012 11 5447
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NBA Draft Tiers
Now we know we are picking in the lottery's no man's land of 13, we can work out who we should pick and, more interestingly, an overall draft strategy.
ESPN draft dude Chad Ford had a great article a few years ago about Draft tiers. "Here is the basic premise from last year":http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Tiers-110616
Instead of developing an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, these teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need.
... The rules are pretty simple. A team always drafts its highest-ranked player in a given tier. Also, a team never takes a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available.
I think this system is a really solid one. It helps a team avoid drafting players that fit a need but are a tier lower, and provides a means of ranking similar value players. I have no real idea about any of the picks, but my general feel of what the tiers are looks like this:
Tier 1
Anthony Davis PF
No discussion required.
Tier 2
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
- SF Thomas Robinson
- PF Andre Drummond
- C Bradley Beal SG
There can be some debate here - are Drummond and Beal on a par with MKG and Robinson, or is there a 2.5 Tier with Beal and Drummond?
Tier 3
- Harrison Barnes SF
- Jared Sullinger
- C Perry Jones
- PF Terrence Jones SF/PF
- Jeremy Lamb SG
These five are projected as a group that is a bit better than the 6 or so players after them.
Tier 4
- John Henson PF
- Tyler Zeller C
- Damian Lillard PG
- Kendall Marshall PG
- Austin Rivers SG
The end of the lottery has a solid group of players, varying from solid to upside with risks.
Tier 5
- Terrence Ross SG/SF
- Quincy Miller SF
- Moe Harkless SF
- Dion Waiters SG
- Meyers Leonard C
- Arnett Moultrie PF/C
- Marquis Teague PG
- Fab Melo C
- Evan Fournier SG/SF
- Tony Wroten PG/SG
An interesting mix, as these are all flawed players with upside.
Tier 6
- Royce White PF
- Jeff Taylor SF
- Tyshawn Taylor PG
- Orlando Johnson SG
- Andrew Nicholson PF/C
- Festus Ezeli C
- John Jenkins SG
- Doron Lamb SG
- Darius Miller SF
- Jared Cunningham SG
- Draymond Green PF
- Kevin Jones PF
The first round fringe, there are a few players with NBA skills, but all have question marks.
This is the range we will likely pick in, and late in that range as well:
- John Henson PF
- Tyler Zeller C
- Damian Lillard PG
- Kendall Marshall PG
- Austin Rivers SG
This range has 2 NC bigs, an athletic defender and a mobile shooter, 2 PGs and a frosh SG with question marks. There are 15 picks in the top 4 tiers, so we should be able to get one of these players.The question are:
1) Do we want any of these players?
2) Are the tiers accurate and reasonable?
22 comments
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3 recs |
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I built a comment counter
Everyone who likes to talk in the game threads (ok maybe just me) loves the comment count thing who ever it is does (sorry, coding makes my English bad), so I built a site to track it:
http://cperg.com/ - here is a screenshot for the truly lazy:

I have only the last few games, but I'll run it each game day so we can settle who comments the most, and who is most Verbose quickly and efficiently.
38 comments
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12 recs |
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2012 Draft Not That Great?
In July, NBA scouts and executives were projecting the 2012 NBA draft to be one of the best in a decade.... But as we enter the last week of February, NBA executives are rushing to downgrade the draft.
How Many Games Do You Expect To Watch This Year?
I had a thought before about trading Nash - do people want to trade him because they don't think they will see many games so it won't matter? Does the number of games you expect to watch make a difference to what you want the team to do?
I bought League Pass, and I fully expected to see every game this year. The first two I missed (and didn't have Internet for a week after) but every other game I have watched live or as a replay (even Dallas - knowing we lost by 23).
Personally, I enjoy watching Suns games. The Suns are the team I am most emotionally involved in of any sport, and it is on at Midday where I am. Because of that, I hope the Suns keep Nash, so I can enjoy at least semi-competitive games, because tanking just isn't something I'd enjoy watching.
So how many Suns games do you expect to watch this season, and does that affect your desire to tank?
Nash Doubtful Against Dallas
Why was he even in the game? 3 seconds left, up by two, Memphis going for the win. Um, Ronnie Price Mr Gentry? You know, the defensive PG/SG on the bench?
How The Heck Tall Was Larry Bird?
This was posted on Reddit today, and man, Legend Larry looks like he is 7 foot:

He looks a full 4-5 inches taller than Jordan, and at least 2 inches taller than Magic

It's a shame that Ewing and/or Robinson weren't in the backrow, because that would've provided better perspective, but man, Legend Larry looks even taller than I expect.
I know camera angles can play havoc, people slouch etc etc, so is it my imagination, or was Larry Bird Really closer to 7' than 6'9"?
Long (But funny) Draft Diary
Really is both long and funny.
11 months ago
MMotherwell
1 comment
1 recs
When is the NBA season SUPPOSSED to start?
Assuming no lockout, what is the usual start date? I'll be in the states in either August or October - just want to (finally) see a game, and I'm not sure when it usually starts.
Also, does anyone know when the schedule is usually released? As in, when can I find out where the suns are playing. I doubt I'll get to Phoenix (I am sure you are all heart broken) so catching a game in another city is probably my best bet.
Someone (most likely ME) is about to win a bet...
Way back when, in an OKC vs Suns game thread, one Mr M Motherwell (Esquire) made a bet with one Mr BringBackBarkley17, the details of which are here:
With Miami just a single game away from fulfilling my prediction, I get to plan the public humiliation for one Mr BringBackBarkley17.
Whilst I have SEVERAL ideas, I thought I'd ask if anyone else has anything they'd like to suggest. So, what form of "Public Humiliation" would you all like to see BringBackBarkley17 (or me, if Boston can climb out of the 3-1 ditch) perform?
Why Losing Amar'e For Nothing Is No Big Deal
A LOT of people make the argument that the Suns need to “get something” for Amar'e. This is just not true, and for one simple reason:
Cap space is just as good.
Seriously, everyone, repeat after me:
A LOT of Cap space is a good thing.
Go look at this spreadsheet I created: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tKclQktDfyiViXOePtJkldg&output=html (I took the data from HoopsHype here: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm)
There are three columns: for 2010/11 salaries:
- With Amar’e, Hilla nd Frye staying.
- Without Amar’e, but with Hill and Frye.
- Without Amar’e, Hill, Frye (all three player options),
Below this I have added three cap numbers:
- $55,000,000
- $57,000,000 and
- $60,000,000.
Cap space for each is in bold at the bottom of the screen.
And what does this show? That without Amare, Frye and Hill, we’d have only $42.5 million in committed salary. A cap of $55 mil and we’d be $12.45 mill under the cap. Yes, that is right $12,455,000. That buys us, heck, it might buy Joe Johnson back!
A cap of $57 million and we have a near max $14.5 mil. Chris Bosh might enjoy playing with Nash :)
It seems to me that we should not panic, wait to see if Amar’e leaves $17,000,000 on the table, and if he does leaves, hope Frye leaves as well (I’d love to keep Hill, but Frye surely gets a better FA deal than we can gave him), double down and go after Bosh or, if that fails, Boozer / another bigman star. Not many teams will have much cash left at that point, so we might even get two, like Boozer + Tyrus Thomas.
Remember this spreadsheet next time someone says “we need to get something for Amar’e”, and remember: cap space == that “something”.
NB for those who aren't the Salary cap nut I am, the salary cap FAQ here is invaluable: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
This states “The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.” Basically. it stops teams having zero players, and spending all the cap on two players, and then signing minimum contract players.
That is why the “cap hold” in the spreadsheet.
NB II Amundson could still be signed AFTER after signing a FA, as his contract would be a minimum contract, and a team can sign as many of those are they like. We could also waive Griffin, and save $300,000 and still sign him later, but that isn't the meat of my point (although every buck helps sign a FA).
NB III We could also do a "sign and trade" for a player like Bosh, and give up a bit of cash, then use the MLE (probably about $5 million) to sign ANOTHER FA, even say Frye for $4 million. That is what Toronto did this year with Hedo. I ask you: Bosh + MLE player or Amar'e / whatever we get in a trade?
Marion "just wants to win": Annoying to anyone else?
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/121409dnspomavslede.31820b4.html
"...We're asking him to do some things that he probably hasn't been asked to do by the other teams he's been with. He's been very willing to just roll with whatever we send his way, because he wants to win."
Am I the only one finds statements like that annoying? I mean, come on, he could've won if he stayed here!
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