Why Aaron Miles is worth a roster spot...

MRCARD — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 21:10:38 -0000

I know that this diary title is not going to be popular. I actually like statistics and on the surface Miles looks like a total waste of a roster space. The overwhelming majority of Cardinal fans on this site see no use to Aaron Miles on this roster, and I was one of them. Until...

I got to wondering "why"? What do the Cardinals see in him that we don't. Is it more than the scrappy scrapinator B.S.? Do the numbers hide a value that we aren't seeing?

Let's take two sets of numbers from the past two years:

Player 1: 233 AB .373 OBP
Player 2: 321 AB .352 OBP

Now from purely an OBP standpoint, we'd rather have player 1 leading off than player 2.

Player 1 is Aaron Miles vs. left handed pitching the last 2 years. Player 2? David Eckstein vs. left handers the past two years. Amazingly, Miles outslugged him as well.

Now, who else is playing second base for the Cardinals? Adam Kennedy. I have to believe Kennedy comes back to around his career norms. In '05/ '06, he had an OBP vs righties of .356 (along with .759 and .741 OPS, which isn't bad for a 2bman). A platoon with a .360 OBP out of our leadoff hitters would not be bad.

What are the other costs? Having Miles on the roster doesn't mean Ryan won't be on the team (he should be starting at short or at least Izturis's platoon). So that leaves us with Jiminez (horrible OPS against left handers) and VEB favorite Jarrett Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir is obviously the most attractive option.

Hoffpauir IS right handed so you'd think his splits would be better versus lefties (I don't have the information to back it up). He's also had some pretty good minor league numbers. Saying that, he is currently hitting .236 with a .622 OPS (.255 SLG) in winter ball (55 AB small sample size caveat) and at the very least isn't a sure thing.

In my opinion he needs a little more time in the minor leagues and can always be called up mid-season (we WILL have injuries in 2008). There is something to be said about not moving a player to quickly and he probably wouldn't get regular at bats with Adam Kennedy still hanging around (I would rather see him get AB's in the minors than rotting on the bench).

Sometimes confidence is a big part of growth and the fact that he will get more at bats in the minors is an obvious good thing. At the very least, he gives us a backup in case Kennedy gets injured or is ineffective. If you are one of the believers in his skill set (which I am), we also don't start his arbitration clock during a transition year.

There may actually be a method to the madness...

Cardinal Staff Quality Start Breakdown

MRCARD — Sun, 05 Feb 2006 04:49:04 -0000

Recently, I sorted through some data to find Mulder's Quality Start vs. Non-Quality Start Splits. I came to the conclusion that Mulder is mediocre with Quality Starts but has a dominant ERA when he has them, therefore, there may be some credence to the fact that he's either dominant or horrible. I ventured to guess that maybe his mechanics get out of whack easily or his confidence fluctuates easily (when he's confident, look out; when he's not, it's not going to be pretty). I also utilized Mulder's less than stellar Quality Start stats over his career to mean that he may be consistent after all and that we should expect more of the same from Mulder for 2006 (instead of regression). MdRedbirdFreak was interested to know the rest of the rotation, giving us some sort of reference to draw upon.

Quality Start    .......IP    ERA    W-L-ND    Whip    ...K/9    K/BB    HR/9    QS    NQS
Mulder.......    136.33    1.32    13 - 2 - 3     0.970    4.69    2.29    0.46    18    14
Carpenter...    209.67    1.76    21 - 2 - 4    0.900    8.20    5.02    0.60    27    6
Marquis.....    132.67    1.97    10 - 5 - 3    1.000    4.48    2.13    0.81    18    14
Suppan.....    127.67    2.04    12 - 4 - 3    1.140    5.15    2.20    0.42    19    13
Morris.......    114.67    2.12    10 - 2 - 5    0.950    6.23    4.00    0.39    17    14

Non Quality Start    ...IP    ERA    W-L-ND    Whip    ...K/9    K/BB    HR/9    QS    NQS
Carpenter.........    32.00    9.84    0 - 3 - 3    2.060    6.19    1.69    1.13    27    6
Mulder.............    68.67    8.26    3 - 6 - 5    2.180    5.24    1.02    1.58    18    14
Marquis............    72.33    8.09    3 - 9 - 2    1.960    4.11    0.87    1.99    18    14
Morris..............    78.00    7.04    4 - 8 - 2    1.760    4.27    2.18    1.96    17    14
Suppan............    66.67    6.47    4 - 6 - 3    1.860    5.53    1.37    2.43    19    13

Armchair analysis after the jump...

The first thing that stands out to me is Carpenter's sheer brilliance in 2005. Six non-quality starts is ludicrous, and 4 out of 6 were in September when he lost "focus". All of his peripherals spelled "dominant ace" during his quality starts, and he was one of the league leaders in this stat.

The second thing that stands out to me is Jeff Suppan's steadiness. He was second in quality starts and he had the lowest "non qs ERA" out of the rotation. He keeps us in the games and lets our offense win it for us. He almost had a .500 record in his non-quality starts. Maybe he's not quite as dominant (when he's on) as some of the other guys, but he stays focused even when he doesn't have his best stuff to burn through those bad innings BETTER than anyone else on the staff. His achilles heal is the home run ball. He's either really good, or really horrible in this stat so that's a telltale sign of when he will have a quality start or not.

The home run is an interesting factor for the entire staff, and shows us why Duncan is always preaching excessively to keep the ball on the ground. K/BB was a pretty good indicator as well (except for Morris, he never walks anybody).

As far as Mulder goes, this DOES show us how dominant that ERA was in his Quality Starts and how HORRIBLE he was in non-quality starts. Maybe he got lucky last year in his Quality Starts(as lboros offered), or maybe this is something he does every year. If this is just luck, this data shows that he may have been UNLUCKY in his non-quality starts and this all may even out next year (meaning that he still may have a good to great year). The next study will need to be on Mulder's history in Quality Starts. Is he USUALLY dominant in quality starts and horrible in others, or was last year an aberation?

The big question is gb/fb stats. Unfortunately I couldn't get those numbers per game, so I couldn't come up with the split. I would bet there is a tremendous split for all of them, but Marquis and Mulder (esp). Every starter except Suppan was in the top 20 in GB/FB ratio, and Mulder was 4th. (By the way, Sidney Ponson was 16th in the league in 2003, his career year. If he starts, I fully expect him to be top 20 in 2006).

Finally, since Mulder and Suppan seem to be at both ends of the spectrum, who would you rather have for the playoffs? My gut tells me Mulder because he seems less likely to be offense dependenet and more likely to go toe to toe with a dominant pitcher. When he's on, he's an ace and can win it for you. This seems to be what you need for the playoffs when giving up 2-3 runs just may not cut it.

SB Nation User Blog: MRCARD

Why Aaron Miles is worth a roster spot...

Cardinal Staff Quality Start Breakdown