The Broncos has come out of the gate strong, but we're finally to the part of the season where we'll soon know what they're really made of.

Reasons they may be a mirage:

 

• Last year, the Bengals (#30), Browns(#31), and Raiders(#32) were the worst ranked teams in passing offense in the league.  Denvers #2 Ranking this season is in part to just how bad those teams are in the passing game. We'll know more soon as the Cowboys (#12), Patriots(#2), Chargers(#3), and Ravens(#5) are all among the league leaders in passing so far this year.  The real test of a passing defense will come a bit later against the Colts.
• The wins against the Browns and Raiders weren't against good football teams.  I don't know that I've ever seen a QB struggle as much as Russell is without being benched.  The Browns look to be one of the favorites to land the #1 draft pick next year.  The current Raiders coaching staff seems out of touch with today's NFL.
• It took an 'immaculate deflection' to beat the Bengals in a game that was stacked up in Denver's favor.  The Bengals were at a serious disadvantage in preparing against the Broncos since they really didn't know anything about how the Broncos intended to use personnel and scheme.  I also tend not to count season openers too heavily because all teams are excited, fresh, and usually mistake prone.
• Against the Bengals defense (which I think is a top 10 NFL defense) the Broncos offense was anemic (not amoebic).  It was the first week and the Broncos will and have gotten better, but at the time they never really even challenged into Bengals territory.  They'll be playing the Cowboys (#8), Patriots(#10), Chargers(#25), and Ravens (#5) next.  We'll see just how ready the offense is to compete. 

Hopeful Areas:

• It is exciting to see quality tacking!  I think Nate Webster averaged missing more tackles in a single game than the Broncos have missed so far this season.
• Safety play is at a much higher level than last year and I think it is letting other players play more aggressively knowing they've got solid tacklers behind them.
• The 5 man base defensive front is overpowering offensive lines, and with Davis and Williams in the center, teams are not able to run inside.  I think the Raiders were a good rushing attack test and the Broncos got an 'A' grade in shutting them down.

My Guess:

• I'm confident at this point that the Broncos have a defense capable of keeping teams scoring totals down in the 17-24 point area.  This is a huge improvement over a defense last year that couldn't stop the rush and gave up way too many big plays.
• I've not confident at all in the offense at this point.  They've shown they can move the ball against bad teams, but I haven't seen much that makes me confident they can score 24+ against better defenses.

Let's take an objective look at Cutlers performance from Sunday night, and realize why things will be fine in the Windy City for him.

• The Packers switched defensive scheme's in the offseason (cause their defense was sucking last year) and the Bears really didn't have a good idea of what their game plan would be.  The Bears offense and Cutler will be better with a scheme designed to better attack this defense. 
• Interceptions ... Yes, Cutler will throw interceptions.  He will / would throw fewer interceptions with the lead in games, and with a defense that he can trust to keep a lead.  In Denver he got a bad rap, because truthfully, if the Broncos couldn't score 30-50 points, they were going to lose.  He needs to settle in, and realize that 24 points will win him most games with the Bears.
• Where was the running game?  The Packers scheme took it away... and I think the Bears were surprised at how effectively they took it away.  Blitzing gaps and overloading was effective both against the run and against the pass.  
• Cutler threw the passes, so he is ultimately responsible for the interceptions, BUT receivers were stopping, curling back the other direction, and falling backwards as balls were in the air or being thrown.  The Bears will work on this and get better in this area.  Cutler and the receivers will need 1/2 season to be in better sync, but it will happen.

So, a loss is a loss, and Cutler didn't play well, etc., etc., HOWEVER, the Bears were in position to win a tough road game against a scheme they didn't have ample scouting material about.  In fact, without the a long completion late, and a interception return that became Packer TD, the Bears might have won very handily.
Things will get better ... but this week will be another trial-by-fire.  Let's see if the Bears and Cutler improve and have a solid game plan for the pressure the Steelers will bring.

In watching the Jets/Texans and the Pats/Bills last week, I think the following are the keys to the Jets winning this weekend:

• The Patriots offense must be disrupted, early, often, and until the end of the game.  However, this is a veteran lineup that is not easily shaken and has a history of making teams pay that get too aggressive against them.  They have entire 'bubble-screen' schemes just for teams that get after them.  The CHINK IN THEIR ARMOR last week seemed to be Brady himself.  He was missing passes and some pretty badly when when defensive players infringed upon the placement of his left leg/foot.  #1 KEY TO THE GAME:  Get hands on the left leg, pressure on the left leg, throw his blockers into his left leg, take away his ability to step effectively.  He'll be average.
• The Patriots defense will attempt to confuse, confuse, and confuse some more the rookie QB for the Jets.  This is only common sense, and they've had a week to evaluate what he does well and will have a good game plan in place to do this.   #2 KEY TO THE GAME:  The Jets must run the ball effectively, making the Patriots commit to stopping the run (opening up the field for Sanchez), and stay out of predictable passing downs.  #3 KEY TO THE GAME:  In passing downs, Sanchez must be ready to throw the ball away and not try to do to much.  The Pats will be playing mind-games with him and hoping he'll throw it up for grabs a few times.
• #4 KEY TO THE GAME:  Get the lead early and keep it.  KEYS #1 - #3 are not possible without the lead and/or while trying to mount a come-back. 

Poll

Should the Jets play the intro to the hit 70's series 'The Brady Bunch' as the Pats take the field? (it's a story of a lovely lady ...)

31%

Definitely. Belicheat can star as Alice the maid.

12 votes

42%

For Sure. The refs protect Brady like he's a girl.

16 votes

26%

No. This is rude and has no place in professional sports.

10 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

I personally thought the Broncos looked like a well below average team against Cincinnati, but saw many positives, particularly on defense.  These are the things that stuck out to me.

Positive:

 

• team seemed well prepared and ready to play, particularly on defense
• special teams seemed much improved in coverage
• the defense wasn't predictable and looked very good at times.
• tackling was much better than last year.
• Andre Davis didn't look slow, he played well.
• Alphonso Smith played well and looks like a keeper.

Negative:

• the offense couldn't really get in sync (good defense?)
• seemed like the running game was supposed to be set up by a passing game  (75 yds rushing)
• passing game wasn't productive (243 yds passing, 165 without final play)
• the offensive line didn't look like a 12 sack a year line in pass protection.
• Dawkins didn't look as fast as I remember him a couple years ago, but still tackled well.

So, for the things I'll be looking for against Cleveland:

• Can the offensive line protect the passer more effectively.  Is this a team strength?  Shorter passing game should lead to less sacks, not more.  Hard to beat last years sack totals, but I'd think it should have been similar.  Will this years scheme fit our offensive line personnel?
• Will the Broncos continue to look like a pass-first team, or will they change towards run-first?
• Will the defense be more or less effective once an opponent has a week's film to scout them?  Cincinnati really couldn't scout/prepare too effectively, it will be interesting to see if Mangini and Co. discover some weaknesses and how they attack.
• Amoeba offense week #2:  Will it be similar to last weeks game-plan or radically different for a different defense.

Can the Zone-Blocking and Bubble-Screen-Short passing game work together effectively?

 

Here's my impression of a Zone-Block Scheme:

1.  Stretches a defense horizontally and uses over aggressive pursuit against a defense.

2.  Can help to tire and neutralize big, physical defensive lines and make them play more passively against the run.

3.  Forces safeties to come up and help fill cutback lanes creating downfield throwing opportunities.

4.  Weakness:  Backside pursuit (i.e. crashing down the line).

5.  Sets up a middle-long (10-30 yd.) passing game

6.  For a QB to be effective with a Zone blocking scheme he needs to have a pretty strong arm to take advantage of Safeties cheating to stop the run AND needed to be able (at least in a Shanahan scheme) to be able to bootleg/rollout against the grain of a Zone run to keep defenses from crashing down the lines.  [Griese didn't have the arm or the running ability, Plummer had the running ability but not the huge arm.  Cutler seemed to have the athletic talent for it, if not he decision making to have mastered it.  On initial appearance, Orton seems to be closer to a Griese than either a Plummer or Cutler]

 

Here's my impression of the Bubble-Screen-Short Passing Scheme:

1.  Its intent is to neutralize an aggressive pass rush.  Ball leaves the QB's hands sooner and/or screens can make defense pay big for blitzing and getting caught.

2.  Doesn't require great mobility, just a solid pocket passing presence, some escapability, and the ability to make quick reads.

3.  If the offensive team can effectively create mismatches in coverage and take advantage of them it is very tough to defend against.

4.  By making teams concentrate of shutting down shorter passing lanes, it hopes to create and exploit longer routes on occasion.

5.  Is setup-by a middle-long (10-30 yd.) passing game

6.  Weakness:  Teams can crowd the line, disrupt timing short route timing, play confusing zone-rush schemes to disrupt.

7.  So, for a QB to be effective in this type of scheme, he's got to make solid decisions and have enough arm / deep ball capacity to keep teams honest against deep routes.

 

At this point I'm a bit doubtful of coupling these two scheme's together.  I can see the Broncos abandoning their Zone-Blocking scheme as teams shut down the rushing attack and show no fear of a deep passing game.  If the Broncos show that they can consistently threaten down the field it'll be a different matter.

I'm looking forward to the comments...

I think it very odd that Bowlen said he intended to keep the front-office together after the Shanahan firing, then fired the Goodman's not too long into McDaniels tenure. Besides Bowlen contradicting himself, it was very odd considering the timing, and that the Goodman's must have walked out the door with a whole heck of a lot of scouting and player/draft knowledge that would be almost impossible to replace. Making it even stranger, this was a tandem that had a pretty darn good track record over the past couple of years.

Looking back, I conjecture that there was probably an irreconcilable disagreement between McDaniels and the Goodman's, probably over Jay Cutler, and McDaniels proposing to go after Cassel. The Goodman's probably felt (and rightly so in my opinion) that Cutler was the franchise QB for the next 10 years and was untouchable. McDaniels obviously had other ideas (whether he initially lied or not, he definitely has continued to obfuscate his intentions).

I also wonder if the Goodman's might have been a part of some of the initial leaking of the 'Cutler Trade Rumors'.  Cutler certainly had some solid, inside information concerning the trades, and probably rightly felt betrayed and then lied to when he confronted the Broncos and was fed their line.

Does anyone have more / deeper information regarding the Broncos split with the Goodman's? Comments?