Another dismal season is coming to a close.  Disappointment was realized after the third week of the season that this year’s Cincinnati Bengals were not worthy of making the playoffs despite having one of the most feared offenses in the league.  And this disappointment is all too familiar to us Bengals fans since Mike Brown has taken over for our beloved Paul Brown.  However, at the end of these dismal seasons the Cincinnati Bengals always seem to finish with a late season surge that causes everyone to start thinking that the following season will be the year.  You know, the momentum of a strong finish is supposed to carry over into the next season that will make the previous season seem like an aberration.  But is that the case?  How many times have the Bengals finished strong and then carry the momentum into the following season?

The 1995 season was a year when the Bengals showed dramatic improvement despite losing 9 games.  Of those loses, 5 were decided by 3 points.  With the production of Jeff Blake and Carl Pickens, and the prospect of Ki-Jana Carter returning from a devastating knee injury for the 1996 season, prognosticators were taking notice.  Even the San Diego Tribune predicted the Bengals would win the Central division with a record of 11-5.  With the improvement over the 1994 season, momentum from the 1995 season should make for a different 1996 experience. 

To start the 1996 season, the Bengals proceed to lose the first two games, but brought back some respectability in week 3 with a win over the Arizona Cardinals.  But then Bengals did the usual swan dive losing the next 4, starting the season 1-6, causing Mike Brown to send David Shula packing and replacing him with Bruce Coslett.  Then the Bengals caught fire going 7-2 the rest of the way finishing 8-8 for the year.  This finish set the table for expectations that would need to be met for the 1997 season.  The momentum from this season would surly carry over and send the Bengals back to the playoffs.

The 1997 season started looking like the expectations would be met after a week 1 victory over Arizona.  But then things unraveled like a ball of yarn rolling down hill.  The Bengals proceed to lose the next 7 games, extinguishing any hopes of breaking the streak of not making the playoffs, a streak that started after the 1991 season.  Once the situation of whether they were making the playoffs was settled, the Bengals went on yet another late season surge winning 6 of the final 8 games finishing 8-8.  During that streak, the Bengals were able to bring back Boomer Esiason who was instrumental in the surge with a 106.9 passer rating.  The hope for the 1998 season was that he would come back for one more year and show everyone that he can still play and carry the Bengals into the playoffs.  And yet again, the momentum from this season would surely have an impact on the 1998 season.  Surely it would be the Bengals year in 1998.

With the retirement of Boomer, the Bengals needed a QB to take over a team capable of making the playoffs.  With Carl Pickens and Corry Dillon as part of the offense and the momentum from the late season surge from the previous season, there was no way the Bengals would not be a part of the playoffs.  To fill Boomers shoes, the Bengals brought in Neil O’Donnell, who performed admirably, but was unable to overcome a defense that quickly became one of the league worst.  Whatever momentum built up from the late season surge in 1997, was lost when Boomer retired.  The Bengals sniffed only 3 victories that season.

So the pattern has been set.  When the Bengals have a late season surge, the following season should not be expected to any better than the previous.  But there is an exception to this pattern.  In Marvin Lewis’s second season, the Bengals started as expected with only 3 wins in the first 8 games.  But the Bengals had another late season surge as they went 5-3 the next 8 games to finish the 2004 season 8-8.  So did the momentum carry over to 2005?  One could say yes as the Bengals finally quenched the playoff drought by winning the division for the first time since 1991. Unfortunately the playoff run was short lived with a first round loss to the dreaded Pittsburgh Steelers.

Now the pattern of missed expectations after a strong late season surge is once again apparent.  Last season, after the Bengals struggled to win 2 of their first 8 games, they proceed to win 5 of the next eight finishing the season 7-9.  However, the level of expectations for this season was not the same as last year due to a defense that finished the season near the bottom.  Would the momentum from last season carry over and help the Bengals to win more than expected?  With the invasion of the injury bug again, momentum from last season never had a chance to infect this year’s team resulting in the Bengals to be unofficially eliminated from the playoffs after losing their first 3 games.  No NFL team has ever started 0-3 and made the playoffs.

Marvin Lewis has promised that the team will win the final three games of this season.  And so far, that promise has been kept with the victory over the Washington Redskins.  And the possibility exists that the promise will not be broken as the Cleveland Browns are now on their third QB for the season in Ken Dorsey, and the Kansas City Chefs, I mean Chiefs, continue to find ways to lose games.  But will the momentum from this late season surge translate into more victories for next season?  Based on the history of the past 20 years, don’t carry high level of expectations because you will then be pleasantly surprised if the Bengals surpass them.

An article published last week on Cincinnati.com indicates that Marvin Lewis has a set a new goal for the Cincinnati Bengals to finish the season with 8 straight wins and hope for a playoff spot.  But the problem with that idea is he fails to realize what team he is coaching.  This team has shown no ability to play a complete game, let alone sting several wins together in hopes of finishing with an 8-8 record and lost 8 straight to before getting their first win.  While I applaud the optimism, but what precedence has been set for Marvin to think this?  And how often has any Bengal team won 8 games in a row? 

The Bengals have been in existence for 40 years, being established in 1968.  In that time, no team in franchise history has ever won 8 games in a row.  Even during the two Super Bowl seasons, the longest winning streak was 6 games straight that occurred during the 1988 season.  The longest winning streak in franchise history is 7 games, which occurred during the first season the Bengals were in the NFL, 1970.  For those who may not realize it, mainly those younger than most of us, the Bengals started in the old American Football League in 1968, which later merged with the National Football League in 1970.  That Cincinnati Bengal team, coached by our beloved Paul Brown, started 1-6 before winning the final 7 games of the season finishing 8-6 qualifying for the playoffs as AFC Central Division winners.

Since the NFL went to 4 divisions per conference, 2 teams have made the playoffs with 8-8 records; the 2004 St. Louis Rams and the 2006 New York Giants.  Neither team started the season 0-8 and then win the last 8 games to make the playoffs.

Being optimistic is a great trait to have.  Especially when coaching a team that has a reputation for losing.   But one must have a dose of reality when setting goals for a team that does not have the ability to meet this kind of goal.

After the Cincinnati Bengals started the season o’fer, one could only expect that in order for them to win a game, it was going to have to be a near perfect game.  No turnovers, minimal penalties, running game working, defense making expected stops, etc… You get the idea.  Even though the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars started near perfect, its ending was anything but.  Despite this late game imperfection, they somehow still were able to get their first win of the year.

The Bengals came into the game with an imperfect defense that was looking to figure out how to stop someone, especially late in a game as they have consistently kept the game close, but then falling apart going into the forth quarter.  The imperfect offense was just trying to figure out how to get a first down on the opening drive of the game, which in recent games did not occur until late in the second quarter.  After losing their last game, the imperfect team and coaches were making excuses for the losses saying it was not from lack of effort, but something else.

The Jaguars were a team in need of a win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.  But their defense was not the usual aggressive man-eaters of the past few years and the offense was looking to get their running game going again.  Going up against the Bengals, it looked to be a sure thing to right the ship.

But the Bengals started doing things that was not the usual Bengals, such as getting a first down on their opening drive, and then scoring, also on the opening drive.  It felt so good that Chad Johnson refused to not only not get up after scoring, but refused to give up the ball.  Then the Bengals did it again with Chad scoring his second touchdown game, his first two touchdown game of the season.   Each of those scoring drives was over 80 yards, something the offense was not accustom to.

As the game progressed, things started falling into place.  Converting third downs, keeping the defense off the field and moving the ball with ease.  The Bengals eventually built up a 21-3 lead while playing nearly a perfect game.  But then the near perfection suddenly went imperfect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a third quarter interception that fortunately did not result in points.  Shortly after the Jaguars kicked a field goal early in the fourth quarter, Glen Holt fumbled the kickoff with the Jags returning it for a touchdown bring a comfortable 21-6 lead to a suddenly concerned score of 21-13.

With six minutes to go, the Bengals defense, which had been able to stop the Jaguars with regularity, again became the team that could not keep a close game close, allowing the Jags to drive 73 yards for a touchdown that brought the score to a nerve racking 21-19 with just under 2 minutes to go.  Jacksonville only had one choice and that was to attempt a two point conversion and try to send it into overtime.  The only concern was whether the much maligned Bengals defense was up to the task of stopping the play.  In unlike Bengals defensive fashion, they stopped the Jaguars two point attempt by forcing a bad pass to Jerry Porter that was deflected to the turf, sending Bengaldom into a frenzy not seen all season.

The win against the Jaguars was not perfect.  Inopportune turnovers and a defensive lapse led to the game getting closer than it should have.  However, the Bengals did perform above expectation with a running game that produced the season’s first 100 yard rusher with Cedric Benson and a defense that made a rare game saving stop when it needed to. 

Now the Bengals have two weeks to prepare for the Philadelphia Eagles, another team that likes to prey on imperfection.  But in order for the Bengals to not only beat the Eagles with the added goal of salvaging the season, they will have to continue performing above current expectations and playing near perfect games.  Or this may be the only win the team enjoys for the rest of the season which will then set a new franchise record for futility.

When a team struggles, the powers that be decide a change is needed to change direction.  Most of the time this usually occurs shortly after the disappointing season concludes, when the situation can be assessed and the proper decision can be made.  This occurs most of the time.  But suddenly, NFL teams are making coaching changes in the middle of the season, al la the NHL when teams will make a coaching anywhere from 4 games into the season or 3 weeks from the end in hopes that the team will respond.  Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not.  Currently, three mid-season changes have occurred in the NFL and two are already provided dividends.

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The Cincinnati Bengals running back situation is fast becoming a glaring problem that can be easily resolved.  Currently, the Bengals have three running backs on the roster but only one has proven that he is worthy of being the starter.  Kenny Watson, who came to the Bengals from the Washington Redskins, showed last season that he has the fire and ability to be a starting running back.  He showed that he can hit the hole rapidly and get the extra yards that Rudi Johnson was unable to get after his return from injury.  Watson led the team last season in rushing yards with 763 yards averaging 4.3 yards per carry while having to give time to Rudi.  Although he never showed breakaway speed, Kenny Watson was able to move the ball consistently giving the Bengals offense chances to capitalize.

But this season, the Bengals sent Rudi Johnson packing and Kenny Watson suffered a preseason injury.  That left Chris Perry as the starter.  But Perry has proven he is not up to the task by showing little or no ability to not only find the hole, but to advance the ball with any consistency.  He may currently lead the team in rushing with 239 yards with a pedestrian average of 2.8 yards per carry, but that just shows how bad the running back situation is for the Bengals.  Another problem with Perry is his inability to protect the ball as he has fumbled 5 times already at inopportune times and now suddenly can’t catch the ball.

The Bengals signed Cedric Benson on September 30th and played in the game against the Dallas Cowboys, rushing 10 times for 30 yards and currently has 36 yards on 14 rushes, which works out to be 2.5 yards per carry.  Benson came into the league as a 1st round draft pick from the Chicago Bears rushing for 1593 yards on 420 carries averaging 3.8 yards per carry during his career there (2005-07).  Against the Cowboys, he looked to have the ability to hit the hole with some power and authority.  But against the New York Jets, the few times he was able to get the ball, he was stopped at the line of scrimmage for little or no gain.

The Bengals have one running back that is clearly the starter and two other serviceable running backs. Chris Perry has proven he can only run from sideline to sideline gaining little if any yardage; thinks he is an every down back, but has yet to prove it.  Cedric Benson just arrived and is not sure where he fits in, but proved in Chicago he can spell the primary running back providing a change of pace for the offense.  But Kenny Watson showed last season that he not only wants to be the go-to man in the back field, but has proven that he should be.  Now that he is on the active roster, he should be handed the starting job in order for the Bengals offense to have a chance at advancing the ball.

The Cincinnati Bengals has three times this century done something that all Bengals Fans are familiar with, start a season 0-5.  The frustration we fans feel is also familiar as each of these teams we believed were talented enough to compete for playoff spot.  But after the third week of the season, the realization that this is not the case slaps us in the face like a bucket of ice cold water.  But is this team really better than those previous two, as everyone believes?

This year’s version of the futile Bengals would lead one to think this maybe the worst team this franchise has ever put on the field, with their inability to score points and prevent the opponent from scoring too many.  With that in mind, I will try and give you a look at the how closely matched each team is to each other and maybe provide a look into the furture.  So, let’s look at the talent level of each of these teams using returning Pro Bowlers as the guide.

The 2000 team had 2 returning Pro Bowlers from the 1999 season, finishing 4-12.  But the 2002 team, which sports the worst record in franchise history at 2-14, had one returning Pro Bowler, Corey Dillon, who also was selected to the 2000 Pro Bowl.  This season, the team has 2 returning pro bowlers from last season, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and a third from the 2006 season in Carson Palmer.  A forth, also from the 2006 season, would be on the team but the Bengals saw fit to release Willie Anderson before the season started.  The talent level for this season’s team can be considered at a higher level than the previous 2 dismal seasons based on the number of returning Pro Bowlers.

This seasons offensive and defensive units appear to be the atypical lot in which neither are capable of doing what is needed to achieve success.  Currently, the offense, the much feared high powered offense of the recent past, is ranked 31st overall averaging 236 yards per game and 14 points a game.  The only team with an offense that is worse than the Bengals is the Cleveland Browns, who ironically beat the Bengals 20-12.  The 2000 version did not fare much better as they finished 29th overall averaging 266 yard per game scoring just under 12 points a game.  They were held pointless for two of the first 3 games and were only able to muster a game high 16 points during the first 5 loses.  Fortunately, that is not the case this season as the Bengals have not been shut out and were able to score a season high 23 points against the New York Giants.

The 2002 Bengals offense, considered the worst team in franchise history, finished with a better total offense ranking 18th overall averaging 279 yards per game and scoring just over 17 points a game.  Despite the increase in yardage output and average scoring, it did not translate on the scoreboard early in the season as they were held to 7 or less points 5 of the first 6 games of the season.  The offense was able to muster 21 points against the Indianapolis Colts in week 5 to break up the string.

Throughout the years of frustration, including the previous decade prior to this, the defense has been considered the biggest problem.  They seem to never be able to perform up to expectation and somehow find a way to lose a game that should be winnable.  And this season seems to be no different after allowing the New York Giants to complete two big passes in overtime setting up the game winning field goal and letting the Dallas Cowboys score to go up 9 points with less than two minutes go.  But is this season’s defense better than the scores indicate and the previous seasons mentioned earlier? 

This year’s defense is currently ranked 19th overall, which is a higher ranking than the defense that participated in the Bengals last playoff game.  Currently, opponents are scoring at a rate of nearly 24 points a game, which is 21st in the league.  The 2000 defense, which finished the season ranked 22nd giving up nearly 343 yard per game, allowed less than 23 points a game.  The 2002 defense, part of the worst team in franchise history, actually improved over the 2000 defense to finish the season 17th yielding 329 yards per game.  Despite the improvement in overall defense, they finished last in scoring defense letting opponents score 28 points a game setting the second highest points total allowed for the franchise.

What does all this mean?  The season is only 5 weeks old, allowing for teams to continue to improve and potentially make an unprecedented runs towards playoff spots.  However, no team has ever started a season 0-5 and made the playoffs, and based on recent history, this year will not be the exception.  With the talent this Bengals team has, one could imagine that this will not become part of the recent miserable history and they will work to finish respectable.  But if history is an indicator of the future, be prepared for a continuation of the same.