The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective has just released a study of what combine results have statistically led to success in the NFL. They looked at a large number of NFL players and compared their actual performance in the league with how well they did in various tests at the combine, and the results are not always what one would expect. Let's take it by position:

QB: Only two stats matter in terms of predicting success for QB's -- they need to be over 6'2", and must have good shuttle times (which measure agility). Being 6'6" helps a little, but the main thing is getting up to the 6' 3" mark. (Keep in mind there can be "outliers" like Drew Brees who are shorter and still successful. What the Harvard model is saying is that if your QB is over 6' 3" he has a much larger chance for success.)

RB: They do best if they are short, heavy and fast (i.e., speed in the 40) at the same time. No metrics are predictive for FB's.

WR: Nothing that happens at the combine predicts success here. Speed does NOT matter, nor does height or leaping ability (see Welker, Wes). The traits that lead to great WR's are not measured in any way at the combine.

TE: Here is where you get your best predictions from combine performance. TE's will perform better if they have good 40 times and bench press a lot of reps. Agility, height and weight do not matter.

Center: Only the shuttle time is important. The bench press does NOT matter at all. Upper-body strength is NOT that important for Centers (although the Harvard people assume all NFL Centers have at least a certain amount of it).

OG: Speed in the 40, not agility, predicts best.

OT: Speed and size matter (weight, not height). Agility and strength surprisingly do not predict the success of OT's.

DE: Combine scores are also good predictors for this position. The heavier, faster and more agile (shuttle time), the better. This is the only position for which the cone drill is relevant.

DT: The heavier, stronger (bench press) and more agile (shuttle time), the better, but the predictive value is nowhere nearly as good as it is for DE's. Height and "explosiveness" are NOT factors.

LB and FS: The combine is useless in forecasting success at all of these positions. Forget it.

SS: Again the combine is of little value, although faster SS's do fare better in the NFL, along with those who are lighter (it's counterintuitive, but you don't want a lot of weight at this position).

CB: Here the combine does help predict outcomes. CB's with better 40 times who do well in the shuttle drill and are heavier do the best. Vertical leap and height do NOT matter.

According to James Walker of ESPN's AFC East Blog, David Nelson is going to be the Bills' new outside WR this week, replacing the injured Donald Jones, with Naaman Roosevelt and Brad Smith taking Nelson's place in the slot. That's something that a number of us on Rumblings will be happy to see. The concern about using Nelson this way is that he is not fast enough, but in fact he ran a 4.54 40 at the combine. By comparison, Stevie Johnson, who is certainly fast enough to be a sideline receiver, ran a 4.59. That same year Early Doucet ran a 4.54 and Mario Manningham of the Giants a 4.60, so Nelson plainly has the required speed, and his height at 6' 5" in effect makes him "faster" since he can outjump DB's that he can't outrun. It's possible that this change isn't going to work and that the Bills will discover that Nelson needs to stay in the slot. But it's also possible that Nelson is going to prove an extremely pleasant surprise on the outside and that the team will find they have a strong contender for their #2 WR assignment already on the roster. The good news is that we are going to find out the answer on Sunday.

There seems to be a lot of surprise now that Ryan Fiztpatrick has become a successful NFL QB that anyone from Harvard could be associated with football, as if "Harvard" and "football"  belong in different universes.  But in fact Harvard has had a lot to do with the history of the game, which probably would have ceased to exist at the start of the 20th century if it had not been for the then President of Harvard, Charles W. Eliot.

 

In 1905, there was a great deal of popular sentiment for banning football from the United States altogether.  College games (there was no professional league at the time) were turning into violent brawls, with players attacking the other team across the line of scrimmage before the play had even started and administering terrible beatings, sometimes using concealed weapons.  After 18 college players died from such violence during the 1905 season, President Teddy Roosevelt summoned the Presidents of the three leading college football powers at the time -- which were naturally Harvard, Yale and Princeton -- to see what could be done to save the game.  President Eliot of Harvard favored abolishing football if possible, but he agreed at the meeting to help form an Intercollegiate Athletic Association (which evolved into the NCAA) to attempt to transform how football was played. 

 

The new association met for the first time in early 1906 and Eliot sent his head coach to the meeting with 19 proposed rules he had generated with the stipulation that if they weren't adopted Harvard would end its football program -- which would have delivered a death blow to the sport forever.  His rules included shortening the game to 60 minutes of playing time, setting up a neutral zone between the offensive and defensive lines that could not be encroached upon by either side without a penalty, and a rule that strictly prohibited any movement on the part of the o-line before the snap.  In case you have wondered where that rule came from and why it was adopted, you now know.  Eliot also proposed the introduction of the forward pass as a means of spreading out the defenders so that they would not be bunched up before the play at the LOS, ready for a scrum.  There was a great deal of opposition from football purists to the idea of allowing forward passes (laterals had long been part of the game -- a heritage from rugby), but Eliot was insistent and finally prevailed.  As a result of his efforts, the game was saved and at the same time became the modern version of American football we have today.  Eliot himself did all of this reluctantly, but once the game was no longer overtly violent he became something of a football fan and would attend games to cheer on his team.  No doubt he would be very proud of Fitz today.

 

For the record, Eliot also transformed the American system of higher education.  When he arrived at Harvard, students were forced to take nothing but required courses all four years of college.  He introduced the elective system, allowing undergraduates to choose a major and virtually all the other courses they would take as they saw fit.  He nearly lost his job over this change, but he ultimately prevailed and in the process created the college curriculum we have today.  His motivation was interesting and ironic:  he was a chemist by trade, and he was convinced that if students were given their free choice of courses they would flock to the natural sciences.

 

In a word, a lot of good things for the game of football have come out of Harvard before Fitz -- although after yesterday's victory over the Patriots I'm wondering if he should be considered the best of them all.

By and large the story of tonight's practice was domination by the D.  Even with Merriman sitting out due to a minor leg injury the offense look stifled for most of the evening, with a potent d-line composed of Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alex Carrington moving everywhere on the field to record (tagged) sacks, bat down passes, and clog up running lanes.  Carrington was playing with the 1's due to an injury to Dwan Edwards and he took full advantage of the opportunity to impress.  The d-line coach had to be overjoyed with his unit.

The secondary contributed to the fun as well.  McGee had a stellar pass defense, knocking down a deep ball from Fitz to Stevie Johnson, followed on the next play by a Drayton Florence pick of a pass also from Fitz to Stevie. Another way of expressing the main story would be to say that Fitz looked rather shaky.  He did roll out to the left on one play and loft a terrific 25 yarder to Scott Chandler in the middle of the field, and there was a fabulous screen play to Spiller that went the distance, but primarily because of a great lead block by Eric Wood.  Other than that Fitz had few highlights, which meant in turn that no one in the first-string receiving corps looked very good, either.  Fitz just wasn't putting them where his guys could grab them. I may be entirely wrong about this, but I wonder if the reason why is a quiet QB competition that is developing between Fitz and Thigpen that may be getting to Fitz's head.  Watching the 7-on-7 endzone drill where the QB has to throw the ball hard into tight places I kept thinking that Thigpen was trying to outdo Fitz on every throw, and for the most part he did.  It may have simply been a case of Thigpen having a good night and Fitz having a bad one, but as I watched it through my trusty binocs I suspected that some one-upsmanship may have been going on. Fitz also had a very hard time with the garbage can drill, in which the QB's try to throw passes that land in a garbage can set at the far corner of the endzone from longer and longer distances.  The clear winner of the drill tonight was Levi Brown, who either put the ball directly into the can or hit the rim.  Thigpen was the next best, and Fitz couldn't come anywhere near it.  Maybe the drill doesn't matter much -- after all the QB's are not under any pressure when they make their throws -- but then again it is a routine part of practice for the QB's lasting twenty minutes, so it must have some value. Thigpen also looked better than Fitz in the 11-on-11 drills, at one point putting up a 50 yard bomb that Donald Jones brought in at the 5 yard line.  He had another bomb that landed on Easley's fingertips, but Easley dropped it.  Thigpen also had two nifty passes to Na'aman Roosevelt, including one that was a bit over his head that Na'aman caught securely anyway.  It happened that Buddy Nix was standing on the field right at the spot of the reception and I could see him smiling broadly.  I think Na'aman is making this team, period. The brightest moments for the offense, however, came when Brad Smith was on the field running the wildcat.  Those plays always gained good yardage, whether Smith ran or passed (he had one 25 yarder to Scott Chandler that was a delight to behold).  It's hard to say why, but the wildcat seems to have a magic effect whenever Smith comes on to run it.  As good as our D is, they can't seem to handle it. As for Fitz, he may have had an off-night that means nothing, but if he is off this coming Saturday at Denver my observation about a possible background competition with Thigpen starting to get to Fitz might be worth dusting off.  Let's hope that's not it. A few additional random oberservations:      -Dareus is very hard to neutralize, but the one o-lineman who managed to do it was Eric Pears blocking laterally and pushing on Dareus from his side.  It may not be textbook, but it worked a couple of times.       - Training my super-high-powered binocs on Andy Levitre, I discovered him sweating like an open spigot.  You can't imagine the volume of water that came pouring out of his helmet play after play.   No other Bills player had any comparable sweat on what was basically a rather cool (though humid) night, leading me to wonder if Levitre reported to camp in the best of physical shape.  Or perhaps he just perspires like a geyser.       -Shawn Merriman was not dressed, but he hardly wasted the practice.  Rather he sent over an hour working with his position coach on his hand technique.  I kept looking over assuming they were about to stop, but they went on and on.  That, I suspect, is a big part of Merriman's secret -- he is a perfectionist who takes advantage of every opportunity to learn more.     -The drill in which the d-lineman bash a tackling dummy after doing some fancy footwork is a favorite of mine, but tonight I broke out in laughter as I witnessed Michael Jasper smashing the dummy to kingdom come.    When Jasper goes after that dummy, the dummy really feels it.      -Donald Jones is listed at 6' 1", but at one point he was standing next to Roscoe Parrish and looked just a tad taller.  Jones also missed or dropped a ton of passes tonight.  He's no Lee Evans -- at least not yet.      -There was a lot of action on the field tonight, with players getting fewer chances than normal to hang out with their buddies, so I have less to report in that category, except to note that Dareus, Jasper and Spencer Johnson seem to have a real bond, while David Nelson, C. J. Spiller and Fitz spent a lot of time together (when Fitz was not off chatting with Chan).

     --Practice tonight began with peaceful weather and a clearing sky, but before long it started to rain and soon there was a deluge that lasted about 20 minutes.  Most fans headed for the shelter of the merchandise shed and then home ( I went into the shed briefly briefly and then came out again).  Bills fans will be happy to know that their team did not miss even a minute of practice because of the deluge, but rather kept on truckin'.  No Club Med for them.  The few of us who remained at the sidelines intently watching the practice joked that we all deserved free season tickets.  Unfortunately none were offered.

     --Wet conditions did lead to some sloppy ball-handling at times as one might expect, although most passes were completed as designed.  Fitz had a few off-target balls even before the rain started.  On the whole he looked his normal self -- his accuracy remains an on-and-off affair.  Thigpen and Levi Brown seemed much better than they did Saturday night, but then they were not under constant pressure.  It interested me that Brad Smith took a full rotation at QB -- he got the same number of snaps as any of the other guys at the position, even though he was not wearing the QB's red shirt.  He threw mainly short passes and completed about the same percentage as the other QB's.

     --I'm going to get accused of having a man crush on David Nelson, but I would say without hesitation that he struck me as the best receiver on the field.  His moves are more elusive, his routes are more complex, and his hands are surer than anyone else in the receiver corps, including Stevie.  And he's fast.  On one play I watched him simply outrun Aaron Williams.  I don't care about his 40 time; he has real football speed, and his long strides allow him to sail away from defensive backs.  I continue to predict that he will eventually become the #2 WR, not Donald Jones (who dropped both of the deep route passes that were thrown to him tonight).  By the way, Nelson took a poke to his eye toward the end of practice and was being tended to by the trainers.  Didn't look serious, although one never knows.

     --I badly want Scott Chandler to succeed so it is with sorrow that I report he dropped a couple of easy balls.  It's true the rain was coming down pretty hard, but the other receivers were making solid catches.  Chandler has great size, but he is probably still a work-in-progress.

     --Marcell Dareus made his presence known by a whomping rejection of a Fitz Pass.  He got his hand up there and that ball was stopped in its tracks. 

     --I watched Shawne Merriman go up against Demetrius Bell on a couple of 11-on-11 plays and Bell won each time, though my brother-in-law suggested Merriman did not look like he was trying that hard.  Peering through my binocs I was taken aback by how thin Merriman's legs are (along with his waist).  He is a true streamlined pass-rushing machine in terms of his build.

     --One thing I do at training camp, for what it is worth, is to take note of who hangs out with who.  Interesting pairings tonight included Merriman and Kelsay, who seemed inseparable, often with Dave Wannstadt.  David Nelson and Fitz hung out alot, although Nelson also spent a lot of time with Chan Gailey (this kid has excellent political sense).  Dareus and Michael Jasper seem to be buddies, as do Bell and Chad Rinehart.  A final note: Chan seemed to spend a lot of time watching the o-line group tonight.  Last year he was always keeping a close eye on the 7-on-7 drills, but this evening he was with the big guys. 

The details are not available, but apparently there is an agreement by which large-market teams will share revenue with small-market teams that will accompany the new CBA (PFT mentions it in a recent post).  That is likely the reason why both the Bills and Bengals voted for the CBA this time, and why there has been so much consensus among the owners.  The devil as always will be in the details, but since the folks at OBD seem satisfied we can probably rest assured (until we hear to the contrary) that our favorite team came out of this in good financial shape.

     The web has been chock full of stories all week about how a new CBA is near and the lockout almost over.  However, as a number of stories today make clear, there is still a big hurdle to be overcome: the fierce disagreements among the owners.  As Ray Rotto on cbssportsline.com writes in an excellent story, the fans who have seen this dispute as one pitting the owners vs. the players really don't know what has been going on.  That's the old cliche -- management vs. labor -- but it has little to do with reality in this case.  The biggest disputes have been among the owners themselves.

     Rotto portrays the owners as 32 separate factions, but I think it is possible to oversimplify a bit and talk about three main factions: the idiotic greedy pigs, who regard the players as their peons and want to maximize their income regardless of what happens to the game; the much larger moderate faction of owners, who want to go on making a nice profit but understand that the best way to do that is to worry first and foremost about keeping pro football healthy; and the small market faction, who worry that they are falling behind the teams located in larger cities in terms of revenuses and thus in the ability to attract and keep the best players.  To some extent, the small market faction overlaps the other two, including both "moderate" owners who care about the game itself (Ralph Wilson and Mike Brown), as well as some greedy pigs.

     To approve a new CBA requires the votes of 24 out of the 32 owners.  It's possible that the small market owners could join up with enough greedy pigs to block an agreement if the proposed new CBA does not provide enough revenue-sharing.  That's an extremely important issue for the Bills of course, since without enough sharing of tv money and other sources of income we won't be able to compete in the future, which in turn could increase the chances of the franchise leaving Buffalo after Ralph Wilson dies.  In the past the players' union has been fairly helpful on revenue-sharing, since they realize that without it players who are located in small markets won't get the same compensation they would receive in big markets, but the players have so many other issues at stake this year that it's unclear how much of a push they will make on this one.

    In short, Bills fans of course want to see the lockout end soon, but we should also care about getting a new CBA with adequate revenue-sharing even if it means that the lockout continues longer than we would wish.  That's why we should be paying close attention to the owner's meeting coming up shortly in Chicago where these issues will be hashed out.  Again to oversimplify, we very much want to see the moderates triumph over the greedy pigs, but we also want to be sure that the small market owners come away with the agreement they need to remain on an equal footing with everyone else on the field.

I think that Mike Florio of PFT and Michael McCann from SI -- both lawyers specializing in sports law -- are right in saying that the NFL owners are placing themselves in great jeopardy by not immediately complying with the Federal Court order to end the lockout.  You don't mess with Federal judges once they have issued a clear order.  No matter who you are, they will come down on you with very heavy penalties including jail time if you disobey them.  And yet the league seems to be dragging its feet, taking the position that it can wait until the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals rules on its request for a stay of the injunction sometime next week.  Why can the NFL and its owners decide on their own whether or not they will abide by a clear directive from a Federal court?  Presumably because they are the NFL and can do as they wish.  Based on how Judge Nelson has conducted herself so far, it seems unlikely that she is going to stand for this.

What could happen?  As Florio points out, the judge could order Federal Marshalls to arrest Roger Goodell at any time.  She could also order the arrest of team owners.  Or she could slap enormous fines on them -- fines that would increase every hour they continue to disobey her order, and from which they would have no appeal.

Even more likely, teams could start to break ranks -- which already seems to be happening.  The NY Giants are allowing players into their facility to work out this morning, and other teams are talking to agents about free agent deals.  Most important, under Judge Nelson's ruling, the NFL is clearly compelled to allow teams to trade players tonight in conjunction with the draft.  If, for example, the Eagles work out a deal to trade Kevin Kolb for a first-round pick and Goodell refused to allow it I think it very possible that he will find himself in a Federal prison on Friday night instead of announcing draft picks.  As I said, Federal judges do not mess around.  They can't -- it's their only source of leverage over the parties who come before them, and if they hold ordinary citizens in contempt for ignoring court orders they have to do the same for well-known public figures.

It's also possible that Nelson could hang back and let the NFL get away with what it is doing so that she doesn't seem to be siding too heavily with the players.  She might send out a warning by having one of her magistrate judges call the lawyers representing the league, making sure they know they are treading on dangerous ground.  But as Florio and McCann are writing this morning -- and I think they are right -- there is a huge clash being set up here that is worth paying attention to since it may very well impact the draft and so many other aspects of pro football. 

One other Bills-related point worth noting.  If free agency does open up today, it will almost certainly be under the same rules that were in effect last year, since those were part of the old CBA and could provide the league some protection from anti-trust litigation.  That means that players will have to have played in the NFL for six years before becoming eligible for FA, which in turn means that Poz and Donte Whitner will return to the Bills for 2011.

The most interesting part of Judge Susan Nelson's ruling imposing an injunction on the NFL lockout comes at the end, on page 89.  There she says that the fact that the player's union might at some time in the future recertify and go back into business is irrelevant.  Under the law, unions (or more precisely workers) have the right to do that.  Even more important, she goes on, while they remain decertified Federal law states clearly that their employer cannot lock them out.  To rule otherwise, she says, WOULD INVOLVE THE COURT IN CREATING NEW LABOR LAW ON ITS OWN.  For her part, she continues, she is going to choose the more CONSERVATIVE OPTION of staying within the law as it exists today.

THAT is a challenge to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, telling them in effect that if they overturn her ruling they will be taking the more radical course of action and changing how labor law operates in this country.  In effect, her opinion is carefully crafted (she has been working on it for two weeks and it is the length of a short book) to hedge in the Appeals Court, giving them little room in which to maneuver.  They could still decide to overturn her -- anything is possible in this game -- but they would have to violate some of their own most cherished principles in order to do so.

If Judge Nelson's ruling eventually stands and the NFL season resumes, look no further than p.89 for an explanation of how it happened.

P.S. ESPN has a link to the full text of the ruling on its website.

For what it is worth, in an interview on PFTLive yesterday Buddy Nix noted that the Bills have received "a couple of feelers" from teams interested in trading up to the #3 pick.  Nix said he told those teams to "call back next week."  It's hard to know what this means in terms of the Bills' intentions, but it does indicate clearly that there will likely be trading partners available if the Bills want to move down the board a little, perhaps to position themselves for a DE like Cam Jordan or J. J. Watt while adding a high second-round pick.  Ron, your dream may yet come true.

This morning the hearing on the players' request for an injunction to end the lockout began in Federal District Court in Minneapolis.  Everyone is of course watching Judge Susan Nelson for signs of which way she is leaning.  There have been two strong signals so far.

The main event  saw attorney David Boies, representing the owners, arguing at great length that the court has no jurisdiction over this matter.  That was a stupid argument, given the fact that the Federal courts have been adjudicating NFL labor disputes for the past forty years, and as he was finishing Judge Nelson told him she was annoyed at what he had been saying for that very reason.  Why the NFL chose Boies to be their lead attorney despite the fact that he has little real sports law experience is a real puzzle.  This is simply not his specialty.

The other revealing moment came when Jeffery Kessler, the lawyer arguing for the players, claimed that the lockout was doing "irreparable harm" to the players and should be ended immediately.  Nelson replied that she thought the players had a "strong case" on that point.

These two remarks do not necessarily indicate that Nelson is about to lift the lockout.  There remains the concern that doing so would cause the NFL to engage in the very activities (free agency, signing rookies who had been chosen in the draft) that the players allege in their lawsuit are in violation of the Federal antitrust laws.  There's no indication yet of how Nelson views that conundrum.

My own best guess (it's nothing more than that) is that she will rule that the union has a right to decertify, and that she will grant the injunction on the grounds that the NFL cannot lock out employees who do not belong to a union.  It is also a no-brainer that she will rule that the players have a right under the legal process of discovery to all the financial records they have been seeking from the individual teams. 

How she might rule on the main issue of the players' lawsuit -- whether the NFL is in violation of antitrust law -- is a far more open question, but it almost doesn't matter since the suit will never get to that point.  My guess again is that she will call both sides in and encourage them to reach a new CBA while she plays the role of a mediator.  She may hold off issuing the injunction in order to give herself maximum leverage in those talks.  I could also see her creating an arrangement where the owners turn over their financial records to her and she has them examined by an analyst agreeable to both sides who would answer the questions the players have posed about team profits without ever making public the raw numbers.  That might make the owners much more comfortable about giving up their records.  That could also remove the key stumbling block to a new agreement that would get the NFL back to business again.

     There were two important developments late today regarding a new CBA.  First, one of the union negotiators emerged saying he was now "cautiously optimistic" a deal will get done this week.  Even more important, a Federal Judge in Minneapolis has just ruled against the owners in a suit brought by the NFLPA claiming that the sweetheart deal with the tv networks to pay the NFL $4 billion next year even if there are no games to televise is illegal.   The owners were counting on that money to tide them over in the event of a lockout; now they will likely not have that war chest available.

      The owners will surely appeal the ruling, but that will take some time and in the meanwhile the outcome is very uncertain for them (the law seems to be on the union's side, as the judge found).  What all of this means is that the league may be far more open to a settlement than before this ruling came down.  That could, along with the good work of the Federal Mediator, be just what is needed to save not only the 2011 season but also the offseason.

     Let us hope and pray . . . .

Ed. Note: Bumped from the FanPost section. -BG

There is a very insightful piece running right now in the Washington Post by Thomas Boswell on the kind of QB that is most likely to be successful in the NFL today. Given the ferocity and unpredictability of current defenses, Boswell argues, what's needed is a QB like Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers who can escape the pocket when under pressure and improvise to make things happen. He is not really calling for a "running QB" who can consistently rack up big yardage with his feet, but rather someone who is tough, elusive and creative. He points out that such QBs don't necessarily put up great passing stats - in his view the day of the pocket passer who has one 300 yard game after another is about over.  Rather, the QBs who are going to be most successful today are the ones who can make big plays at critical moments by escaping the rush.

Boswell doesn't mention it, but I would add that the ideal QB also has to be accurate on the run. He should be able not only to get out of the clutches of oncoming blitzers, but be able consistently to throw passes that his receivers can catch. It's worth noting that Ryan Fitzpatrick has many of the qualities Boswell mentions, but perhaps not the accuracy.

It seems to me that these are the characteristics we should be looking for (and that Buddy Nix should be seeking as well) in judging the current crop of QBs available in the 2011 NFL Draft. Who comes closest to Rodgers or Big Ben? I frankly am not sure how to answer that question; all I'm saying is that it is the right question to ask.

In an article currently running on si.com, Don Banks provides a "re-do" of the first round of the 2010 draft based on how the rookies chosen have actually performed on the field this year.  Perhaps the biggest change involves pick #4.  In the real draft the Redskins took OT Trent Williams with that pick.  In his re-do, Banks gives them OT Rodger Saffold instead.  According to Banks, Saffold, who went to St. Louis with the secnd pick of the second round (#33), is now the "consensus" choice as the best OT in the 2010 draft among NFL personnel people (i.e., GM's, head draft scouts, etc.).  Trent Williams has in fact played well for Washington this season, but Saffold has been superb for the Rams and looks like he is in time going to be a Pro Bowl OT for a very long time (among other things he is very durable, never having missed a game in four years as a college starter or this year as a pro).  Russell Okung, who everyone was drooling over before the draft, has also done fine, but it is now clear he is not as impressive as Saffold as a pro.

What this should teach us is not to focus so much on the ratings of the draft guru's -- all of whom pegged Saffold as a second-level talent.  A small minority of us on this website were trying to make the case for Safold last spring, but were put down again and again with dismissive comments because "everyone knew" that Williams, Okung, Beluga, and Anthony Davis were the pick of the litter while Saffold was too small, too limited to zone-blocking, etc.
When we pointed out that Saffold had started at LT from his freshman year onward at a Big Ten school and man-hanlded one notorious speed-rusher after the other during his time there, it seemed to make no difference.  Mel Kiper and Co. didn't like him, his stock wasn't running that high in the mock drafts, so he couldn't be any good.  What a shame in retrospect that the Bills didn't either take him outright at pick #9 or, even better, trade down in the first round and select him at the lower spot while adding an extra second-rounder in the bargain.

As for Spiller, Don Banks drops him from the first-round altogether, stating outright that we now know he wasn't a legitimate first-round talent.  I'm not sure that I'm ready to agree on that -- he may yet develop into something special -- but we now know that Rodger Saffold would have been a far wiser choice.

     While everyone has been focusing on the SEC, a drama played out in Reno, Nevada, on Friday night that may have more implications for the Bills than anything that has been happening down South.  There Colin Kaepernick, the QB of the #19-ranked Nevada Wolfpack, led his team to an incredible comeback win over #3-ranked Boise State.  Nevada was down 24-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter, but Kaepernick engineered a series of brilliant drives, culminating in a TD pass with 13 seconds left, to bring Nevada to a 31-31 tie, and they then went on to victory by a FG in overtime.  What is so stunning about Kaepernick's achievement against one of the best pass defenses in college football is that he has only one capable receiver on his roster, and that guy was continuously double-covered.  Bosie State, by contrast, has two WR's who are likely to be drafted fairly high next April and a third who is also likely to get drafted in the future.  Nonetheless, Kaepernick threw for 253 yards.  He also ran for 59 yards and a TD.

     If you think about it, Kaepernick is probably Chan Gailey's ideal QB.  He is tall (6' 6"), incredibly durable (he has had only one minor injury in four years as a starter), very mobile and elusive (4.43 in the 40), has a true cannon arm (he would have been picked in the first round of the MLB draft as a pitcher if he had not chosen his first love, football), good accuracy (he was completing close to 70% of his passes up to the Boise St. game), is very smart (an Academic All-American), and has intangibles that simply go off the charts in terms of leadership and competitiveness, as he demonstrated against Boise.  In addition, he has been running the Pistol offense in college -- Gailey's favorite scheme.  He will obviously need to work on reading defenses in the NFL and he has a few flaws in his mechanics that need to be straightened out, but if the Bills were to take him in either round two or three (depending on where he is sitting in the draft rankings next April) and give him a couple of years to develop as an understudy while Fitz holds the fort, they might have their next true franchise QB ready just when they need him.

     By the way, it was an exceptionally cold night in Reno on Friday.  Buffalo weather.

     There may be other options apparent at QB by the time the draft rolls around, but it seems to me that Kaepernick is definitely one guy we should all be keeping an eye on.

A week ago many of us were trying to predict the big surprise cut of 2010.  All sorts of predictions were made, including Chris Kelsay and Marshawn Lynch, who of course are both still on the roster.  Now that cut-down weekend has come and gone, it's time to look back and decide who in fact was the big surprise and what it tells us about Chan Gailey and the new coaching staff.

My answer would be Levi Brown.  Probably a majority of Bills fans believed he was a lock for the 53-man roster.  The rest, including myself, saw him getting cut and then landing immediately on the PS.  Everyone was concerned about whether he could clear waivers, on the assumption that Nix and Gailey were determined to hold on to him for developmental purposes.  After all, he was "their guy," the only QB they had actually chosen.  It seemed obvious that they had a lot invested in him.

Now Levi is Bills history --and pretty shocked about it himself to judge from his recent Tweet.  The PS is full and he is not on it.  What can we learn from this?  That Gailey is completely nonsentmental and very much able to put aside his own ego.  He makes his decisions based on a fairly cold-blooded calculation of what will enable his team to succeed.  Levi didn't show him enough and Brian Brohm did.  Out with Levi and there is Brohm as the #3 QB.  As Gailey says, it's a tough game for tough people, and we are discovered that he can be plenty tough when he has to be.

Any other thoughts on surprise cuts and what they mean?

I'm not sure if people are still interested in hearing impressions from training camp, but in case there are some who are curious about what is going on there I thought I would jot down a few informal impressions from tonight.

 First and foremost, I was struck by how confident the team looked compared to a few weeks ago.  The victory over the Colts probably had a lot to do with it, but I suspect the guys are simply into the Gailey mindset and feeling much more comfortable about it.  Also, even though it rained hard at times, making the ground and ball slippery, there were very few mistakes.  This is the kind of practice that Chan Gailey kept saying he wanted, and tonight he got it.

The standout for me was Stevie Johnson.  I have always liked him, but it now seems to me he has grown into a genuine #2 WR, making impressive catches literally all over the field.  He was everyone's favorite target and I don't believe he missed one ball all night.  Chad Jackson looked almost as good, especially on a deep throw down the sideline from Brian Brohm.  The rest of the receiving corps also did well, especially Naamen Roosevelt, but Roscoe Parrish did muff several balls he should have had.

Not many running plays tonight -- the emphasis was definitely on the pass.  When they did carry the ball Spiller and Bell had some nice runs.  On one occasion the ball was snapped directly to Spiller in what appeared to be a wildcat play (he got stuffed on it, so perhaps we won't see it again).

Among the QB's the best performance of the night clearly belonged to Brohm, who fired off some real bullets that in every case reached their mark.  For what it's worth, Trent Edwards had an off-night with some bad throws, including one terrible pick.  I wondered if the rain was a factor for him.  However, the award for best appearance by a QB this evening belonged to Jim Kelly, who strolled along with sideline chatting with the coaches.

The defense left the stadium for a while to work on the back practice field, but when they returned I was especially impressed by Ellis Lankster, who might have been trying extra hard to make up for his dubious game last week.  #25 had a pass break-up on a deep ball in the far corner of the endzone that was truly a thing of beauty.  Leodis McKelvin, by contrast, had a so-so practice, commiting blatant interference on one play and whiffing on another.  For Aaron Maybin it was famine or feast, with a lot of plays in which he went nowhere, but also one great "sack" of Trent Edwards.  His quickness is amazing when he can figure out how to use it.   

Finally, TE Michael Matthews went out with what looked to be a minor injury.  Let's hope it's minor, because the TE dept. was looking very lonely.  First there was only Matthews and Stupar to do drills together, and then just Stupar by himself.  Pretty sad.

     Matt wasn't able to make it to practice tonight so I thought I would post my observations for whatever they are worth (not as much as his).

     The Bills were getting ready for their preseason game on Friday, so they did nothing but walk-throughs this morning and had a much less intense and shorter practice than usual tonight.  The star was surely Brian Moorman, who boomed one from his own 30 that sailed sixty-five yards in the air and just missed beaning a startled Ryan Fitzpatrick standing with the other QB's for a drill on the 5 yard line.  The crowd went wild.  Moorman followed that up with a perfect coffin corner kick that went out on the three.  That drew even more applause. 

     Otherwise, the theme of the night seemed to be quick, short passes, primarily to the RB's and TE's.  Not surprisingly, Trent Edwards excelled at this.  Both during the 11-on-11 work and in a pass-catching exercise at the outset when the QB's took turns firing laser strikes to the entire receiving corps Fred Jackson looked a step above the rest.  His ability to snatch the ball rapidly and firmly while running at top speed is impressive.  Joique Bell, Shawn Nelson and David Nelson and Roscoe Parrish were almost as good.  Marshawn, by contrast, missed a couple of balls due to poor timing and TE Michael Matthews just plain dropped a couple.  Then again, Matthews is there to run-block and pass-protect, not catch passes.

     In 11-on-11 Trent completed two great passes to Roscoe, one over the middle for about 25 yards and another in the endzone.  The TD pass was thrown behind Roscoe, who made a terrific effort reaching back to get it.  Trent to Roscoe looks like it is going to be a combination we will be seeing a lot this year.

     Some other things I noted:

     -It was hard to tell much about the o-line since they did not have full pads on (and were not even wearing their knee braces), but Kyle Calloway made a nice block to spring Spiller on a running play.  He really looks like an OG to me, not an OT.  Demetrius Bell did not get beat once at LT and had a strong block on a running play as well.  He did lose containment on Aaron Maybin on one play, then recovered almost instantly to regain his block on Maybin.  Maybin is quick, but Bell is quicker.

     -Maybin was on the field a lot and would invariably run into the OT or TE assigned to block him and then simply stay there in a kind of embrace.  I began to wonder if that was what Maybin had been instructed to do, but when Antonio Coleman was in he made a number of moves to get to where the QB was standing.  Maybin did manage to push Jamon Meredith back some, but not enough to threaten the QB.

     -Among the WR's, David Nelson seems like a standout to me.  He runs fast and precise routes -- in many ways looking like an experienced vet rather than a rookie UFA.  He also blocks well downfield (something I saw him do several times).  I'll be very surprised if he does not make the final roster, along with Chad Jackson and of course the ever-dependable Stevie Johnson, who was quite dependable tonight.  That said, Naaman Roosevelt is going to force the coaches to make a hard decision.  He didn't miss anything thrown his way, including a very tough ball that he caught in the endzone in heavy coverage.  The kid has great hands and concentration.  Incidentally, he was lined up with Spiller receiving kickoffs during Special Teams work.

     -On defense, I was struck by how fast Marcus Stroud is moving.  It would appear that he is penetrating and getting through to the QB more easily from the DE position than he did previously as a DT.  No wonder he is said to be very happy with the position change.

     -Finally, I was surprised to see Chan Gailey typically standing off at a distance, much as Dick Jauron used to do.  I had read that Gailey is usually engaged directly with players throughout the practice, but that wasn't the case tonight.  However, Trent Edwards was by his side whenever Trent was not on the field.

Rick Gosselin in his latest NFL Power Rankings in the Dallas Morning News notes how the New Orleans Saints defense racked up six "sacks" on Drew Brees at their internal scrimmage on Saturday.  According to Gosselin, Brees was seen "muttering to himself angrily on the sideline after a string of incompletions."  So we are not alone.  This is the time of year when defenses start to click, while offenses are struggling to get their passing plays in synch.  Getting the timing right on pass routes and o-line protection is about the hardest thing to do on a team-wide basis in the game of football.  So we shouldn't be worried yet.  If things aren't at least a little better by the end of training camp there will be some cause to worry, but the real test won't come until September 12.

By the way, Gosselin, who has always struck me as one of the smartest reporters covering the NFL, has the Bills #20 in his rankings.  His main comment on them concerns the way T.O's departure "will open the door for some of Buffalo's younger wide receivers to play, develop and contribute" -- which I think is exactly right.  #20 also makes a lot more sense to me than #30 or #31  (though perhaps #22 or #23 would be more accurate to start the season).  We're going to be a decent team this rebuilding year, but not a playoff contender.

      There's interesting news on the Bills website that the team is making it a point to interview TE's at the combine, including Oklahoma's Jermaine Gresham and Florida's Aaron Hernandez, both of whom are expected to go either in the late first round or the early second round.  It struck me when they released Derek Fine that they might be looking at a major upgrade at the position, and the reason may well be that Gailey intends to run the same "pistol" offense he used in Kansas City, in which the QB lines up three steps behind the center (instead of the seven steps of a full "shotgun" formation).  The pistol makes heavy use of a two TE set, using the TE's either to block on running plays or for pass protection or as receivers.  In effect, the use of two TE's gives the playcaller maximum flexibility and keeps the defense guessing.

      Obviously anyone inheriting the Bills' offense would want to take advantage of the talent of Shawn Nelson, but these latest moves make me wonder if Gailey also wants another top-quality TE to go along with him.  If so, perhaps the first round pick is not going to be OT or NT or OLB, as we all have assumed, but rather a trade-down to get to the right spot to select someone like Gresham.  Alternatively, TE might be the target when the Bills pick at the top of the second round.   I'm not necessarily predicting that that is going to happen -- just suggesting that it may be a real possibility.  Stay tuned.

     One thing seems clear -- the Bills need not just one but TWO good NT's for their 3-4 defense.  Big guys wear down quickly and, like everyone else, get injured at times, so the Bills will have to add both a starter and a back-up

 

      It seems to me that one possible way to meet this rather daunting challenge is to trade for Red Bryant of the Seattle Seahawks.  Bryant, who is 6-5 and 320 lbs., was drafted in the fourth round two years ago, but has been inactive most of his NFL career due to the fact that he doesn't fit well into Seattle's 4-3 scheme.  He does not have the ability to penetrate the way a 3-gap DT is supposed to do, and is sitting behind two DT's who are well-suited for a 4-3.  But the fact is that he is a big, strong run-stuffer.  When he was in the line-up at Texas A&M, his team had just about the best run defense in the NCAA; when he went out with an injury they became one of the worst.  He clearly made an enormous difference.  No one questions the fact that he is very powerful and can push back the pocket, making it easier for DE's and rush OLB's to do their jobs.  He is also very athletic, having run a 4.9 40 at the combine.  If you check our sister website, Fieldgulls.com, you will see that a number of folks there keep calling for the coaches to play Bryant anyway even though he is miscast for the scheme because they suspect he is very talented, although some have given up on him and think it is time for the Hawks to unload him.

 

     My guess is that he wouldn't cost that much.  Perhaps we could swap Chris Kelsay for him (yes, I'm trying to make Kurupt's day) or Roscoe Parrish (that would be trading a flea for an elephant).  We could even throw in one of our two sixth-rounders if necessary.  At a minimum I suspect that Bryant could make a solid back-up NT for us, and as Chan Gailey has said depth on the front seven is a high priority.  But it's also possible that he could blossom in a real 3-4 defense and become a starter.  How he would work out is of course impossible to predict, and we need two NT's anyway, so it would be imperative to add another in the draft (perhaps Cam Thomas?) and let that rookie and Bryant compete with each other.  If we did that, and found ourselves a good pass-rushing OLB, we would be well on our way to rebuilding our defense along the lines Gailey wants to go.

     Since this is the bye-week, it's a good time to look back over the past year to consider what might have happened if different decisions had been made.  Here's my alternative scenario for people to ponder:

a) The Bills had extended Jason Peters' contract to his liking last January and made him a happy LT.

b) Hangartner was acquired as a FA and a decision was made to keep Walker and Brad Butler at their previous positions.

c) In the draft, the Bills traded down in the first round in exchange for an extra second round pick, then used the new first rounder to select Eric Wood.

d)  With their two second round picks and their third rounder, the Bills selected Jarius Byrd, Andy Levitre, and the best DE available.  If they preferred to use their new pick in the second round for a DE and Levitre wasn't still on the board in the third round, they could have taken T.J. Lang, who has done so well at Green Bay (he's now their starting LT, but was also playing OG effectively).

     The o-line would then have been:  Peters-Wood-Hangartner-Butler-Walker.  If Butler had been injured in the second game (as did happen), Levitre or Lang could have become the starting RG.  Demetrius Bell would have been the swing tackle.

     If this scenario had played out, does anyone doubt that the Bills would now be at least 6-2 and possibly 7-1, with a very realistic chance of making the playoffs?  And if that had happened, wouldn't we all be celebrating Trent Edwards as our franchise QB and possibly even praising the FO for its wisdom in extending Dick Jauron?

     What's maddening is that it all could have happened.  It was within the power of the team to have made it happen.  And it shows that the disaster that the 2009 season has become all started with the decision not to pay Jason Peters his market value.

     If nothing else, it's an interesting "what if" to discuss.

 

      Brian was absolutely right in his story this morning concerning the need for bringing in a new GM first before the next HC is hired.  It would be great to have a pair of fresh eyes evaluate the current staff and roster and then make the necessary changes.  But given what we know of Ralph Wilson is he likely to go down that route?  The realistic answer is no.  He is now stuck with paying $3 million/year to a former HC for the next two years, so shelling out big salaries to BOTH a new GM and HC is not going to appeal to him.  Nor does he like having strong-minded GM's who he is not sure are completely loyal to him.  And there is the Russ Brandon factor.  Wilson likes and trusts Brandon a lot, which means he is not going anywhere.  In the face of that reality how would the new GM and Brandon coincide?  Would having both of them at the top of the organization lead to cooperation or continuous conflict?  My guess is that a capable GM candidate would think twice about getting into that kind of situation.

     All of which leads me to believe that Wilson will respond to the present crisis by elevating Brandon to be the authentic and unquestioned GM.  Would that be a bad move?  Probably not, since Brandon is smart, has a genuine commitment to the team, and can probably coax more out of Wilson than any other potential GM at this point.  Some will say that Brandon is not a true "football guy," but he did start at QB for four years at a DIII college.  He certainly knows what the game is about.  He has also had a lot of opportunity to learn from other people's mistakes watching Tom Donahoe and others operate over the last nine years.  My guess is that he has learned a lot from that.  And his background as an executive is in marketing, which makes him very sensitive to what fans are thinking.  He knows that the way to keep the stands filled is to put a winning team on the field.  He will do everything possible to bring that about.

     At the same time I would not be surprised if Wilson fired Tom Modrak and John Guy on the thought that the Bills need a new set of talent-scouts.  If that happens, Modrak, who currently holds a fancy title (Vice-President of Football Personnel?) would be replaced be a simple Director of College Scouting, who would presumably be paid a lot less.  The money saved could go toward the salary of the new HC.

     Finally, when it comes to selecting a HC (which, under my scenario, Wilson and Brandon would do jointly) I would recommend keeping a close eye on Mike Sherman, the former Packers HC with a strong winning record in the NFL who Wilson apparently wanted to hire last time until Marv Levy talked him into going with Jauron.  Sherman would come at a salary level that Wilson can accept, is a successful former HC in the league (not just a coordinator), and is a specialist in offense.

      At age 91 it takes people a while to get used to changes.  The scenario I have just outlined would allow Wilson to address the team's major problems without venturing too far into the unfamiliar.  It's not what I would do -- or what most fans would do -- but it may well be what Ralph Wilson feels comfortable doing.

 

      Beating New England on Monday Night would certainly tell us something highly encouraging about this year's team, but losing in my view indicates nothing.  The Bills at the moment are a team filled with young talent that probably needs one more year before it starts to perform at peak potential.  That's especially true of the o-line, TE's and the QB (who won't reach his full potential until the o-line does).  So if they lose at Foxboro it will be entirely expected and basically irrelevant.

 

     The pivotal game this season will come in week four against Miami.  The Bills should be able to beat Tampa Bay in the home opener (if they don't that WILL be a sign of big trouble), and since prevailing over New Orleans in week three will require them to do the one thing they have trouble doing -- scoring a lot of points -- that game can essentially be written off.  But they should be competitive with the Fins.  It will be a genuine test of where they stand in a way that the first three games are not.  By then the offense will have had three weeks of real game experience playing together and Marshawn will be back.  If they are capable of doing anything this year they should leave South Florida with a victory, which will make them 2-2.  The next week they play Cleveland at home, and the momentum of a win over Miami would likely carry them to another W and 3-2. 

     From that point there are some encouraging possibilities.  Beating the Jets in the Meadowlands might be a tough assignment, but prevailing over Carolina and Houston this year looks doable.  If so, they will be 5-3 at the bye week.  And the backside of the schedule has at least four games they could win -- assuming they have built up confidence from a strong first half of the season.  Jacksonville, Miami at home, the Jets at home (well, in Toronto) and Kansas City would be within their range.  If Indianapolis rests its starters for the Jan. 3 game in Buffalo that means a 10-6 record is actually possible.

 

     I'm NOT predicting that this year's schedule will play out this way (who can make any predictions with this team?); what I am saying is that this is a plausible scenario IF we win at Miami in week four.  A win there will suggest that we do in fact have a competitive team that is capable of producing a very interesting season with the promise of a real playoff run next year.  On the other hand, a loss at Miami will probably drop us to 1-3 and, if that happens, the momentum will roll the other way (with heads rolling on the coaching staff perhaps as early as the bye week).

 

Back to my bottom line: a loss tonight does not provide any significant indicator of how 2009 will unwind for the Bills.  What happens in week four will tell us a great deal.

 

Does this make sense?

     Clark Judge of CBS Sports came away from Training Camp with this impression of the Bills' promising young OT: "Just my opinion, but backup tackle Demetrius Bell could be the next Jason Peters with Buffalo. A seventh-round pick in 2008, Bell is raw, talented, and scary good. He could serve as a swing tackle this season and has been taking turns in camp at guard. But you can book this: The guy will push for a starting job before long. He is too good to keep down. The Bills absolutely love him and think he has the ability to make it big. Bell is the son of former NBA great Karl Malone." 

     The link is http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/11999071. 

     Bell may be needed sooner rather than later. Yesterday the Bills did their first two-minute drill at practice, with the offense starting on its own 35 yard line and needing a FG to "win the game." The result: after two sacks in four plays and some additional stops by the defense, the offense went four-and-out, ending up on its own 24 yard line. It was pathetic, and it all had to do with a terrible performance by the o-line. I know it's early, and Eric Wood hadn't even arrived yet, but what happened in that drill is still worrisome to anyone willing to be realistic. Do not be surprised if there is more tinkering with the o-line than most people expect over the coming three or four weeks. I don't think anything is set in stone yet -- including the role that Demetrius Bell will play this year.