This Center suffered through a myriad of injuries early in his career. He spent his entire first season on the injured list due to a broken bone in his right foot.  The following year he returned and showed enough potential to insure that he would get a contract beyond his rookie guarantee.  However...

This Center played in only five games over the next two seasons. In his fourth season, he had a surgery on a bone in his left foot. 

Finally hitting his stride, in his sixth through eleventh seasons he played in 97% of the scheduled games averaging 30 minutes, 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks.  Those averages far exceeded expectations for his draft position.

-

sound familiar?

With good health, the Blazers will make the playoffs - ideally they make a top four seed, homecourt advantage and a lesser opponent; but barring that who is the most favorable of the top four seeds?


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Everything seems to be revolving around what Washington decides to do....

Take a look at the existing rumor (Harrington to WAS /McGrady to NYK /Butler&Haywood to HOU), and let me know if you think Portland can pry Haywood away.  My first attempt is below, I think that Portland might also offer $3M in cash, draft picks/ Euros, and possibly taking on Jared Jeffries' contract (he's a versatile defender!) - but I wanted to put forth the simplest version without disrupting the core.

I'm sure there are many ways to improve this and/or sweeten the pot for the other teams.  Ideas????

I didn't see a recent trade drawer and thought POR could help seal an existing trade rumor;  with Amare-Iguodala involved.  As presented, the Sixer side totals $24.3M vs. PHX $16.4M.  PHX would have to be throwing back some garbage PHI's way to make it work.  Is it possible that's what PHI is objecting to?  

POR could split the difference by subsituting Dalembert's $12.1M contract with Przybilla's $6.8M contract, and sending Blake to PHI where Blake could be their marksman and mentor to PHI young PGs (Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday).

POR would ideally keep Outlaw - but could also send him away if either the PHX/PHI side needed to be sweetened.  My assumption is that PHX wants to do this purely to get Iguodala and Dalembert is part of that price.  Przybilla lessens that price by having the smaller contract.  If he is a quick healer he may even choose to opt out of his contract; in which case my understanding is he would be an unrestricted free agent.  He could even end up back in POR (?)  I'm convinced that acquiring any of the Centers mentioned in Norsktroll's excellent post would be most beneficial if done as a part of a 3 way deal.  As fans we should root for a Ilgauskus & Hickson-Jamison deal or for Iguodala to be moved; as it frees up the respective big men on those teams.

10-11 Possible Roster

PG:  Andre Miller/ Jerryd Bayless/ Patty Mills

SG:  Brandon Roy/ Rudy Fernandez/ Draft pick

SF:  Martell Webster/ Nicolas Batum/ Dante Cunningham

PF:  LaMarcus Aldridge/ Travis Outlaw*/ Jeff Pendergraph

C:   Greg Oden/ Samuel Dalembert/ Joel or Joel - Freeland or Przybilla* (resigned for MLE)

* Outlaw or Przybilla (assuming he opts out) would need to be resigned.  It's a long shot that both would be resigned; but if so Freeland could marinate for another year overseas and possibly step in after Dalembert's contract expires in '11.

The build-up and result of the Philly game really got me thinking.....

1)  Why isn't Brand working out in Philly?

A) Philly is playing a loose guard-dominated offense, a faster, sleeker style of play that doesn't fit Brand's grind it out style.

2)  What is it that Philly is playing for?

A) The future (maybe 2-3 years from now) - They will stay with Iguodala but develop Speights, Young, and Lou Williams

3)  What exactly are the Blazers going to do - down low?

A)  How about acquiring Elton Brand? It would seem that Philly would be motivated to part with Brand and the $51M he is owed for the three season beyond this one.  This meets the Blazers need to consolidate talent, and also would allow Portland to be a playoff contender this year, despite the injuries.  Brand is only seven months older than Przybilla at 30 years of age, and judging from last night has some gas left in the tank!

Whether you put Brand or Aldridge at the C (dependent on matchup) clearly you have an improved frontcourt and a contrast in styles that I believe Pritchard was after with the attempted signing of Millsap.  Blake, Outlaw and Przybilla are assets - but all are needing new contracts in the next year or two.  Brand is already facing a backup situation in Philly and could be transitioned back into it next year.

09/10 Blazers:

Miller/ Bayless/ Mills

Roy/ Fernandez

Webster/ Batum/ Cunningham

Aldridge/ Howard/ S. Randolph

Brand/ Pendergraph/ Oden (inj)

10/11 & Beyond Blazers:

Add in Freeland to to PF/ C mix and the rotation is set through 12/13, when decisions on Bayless, Fernandez, and Batum's contracts must be made.  Miller would most likely retire and Brand would join Webster in the final year of their respective contracts. (but we're not going to have cap room, anyhow...SPAM)

Aldridge/ Brand/ Cunningham

Oden (healhy!)/ Freeland/ Pendergraph

The regular rotation roster appears to be complete.  The Blazers have a flexible roster with developing prospects behind the expiring contracts of PG Blake (Bayless) and PF Outlaw (Pendergraph, Cunningham).  Behind each of those prospects is an overseas project.  However, for those of you who are still searching for that elusive lopsided trade ala Pau Gasol/ Kwame Brown I'd like to submit to you the possible candidates, and an idea of how they might be acquired.

Although, my preference and this plan assume the Blazers go with a skeleton crew of 13 roster slots (Pendergraph/ Cunningham, signed).  Obviously incremental signings might impact this, ref Pritchard transcript:

I think that all depends on who comes available. Some guys are going to get cut. We'll watch the waiver wire pretty closely. But we like our roster right now. It's not like we're going after a certain player. We want to sit tight a little bit and see what shakes free.

Once the season begins, the $2.6M of capspace set aside for the Euros becomes available, and the Blazers may quietly continue to shop Blake ($4M) and Outlaw's ($3.6M) expiring contracts.  Although Przybilla has been mentioned as a potential trade asset, due to the fact that he could opt out the combined need for him, and the small chance that he could get a higher paycheck in 10/11 than the $7.5M he is scheduled to make have caused me not to include him.  Therefore the Blazers would have a range of roughly $6M (80% of Blake+Outlaw) to $12.75M (125% of CAP, Blake, Outlaw) in a player they might acquire via trade.

Players with expiring contracts themselves, that have just been signed or traded for, or are otherwise in the first year of a new contract (BYC) have been excluded because moving them again would be a very public signal that the move was a mistake, and hence is not as likely.  Other players that are clearly NOT an upgrade have been removed (Beno Udrih).  I have BOLDED those teams that according to Storyteller's estimate are not profitable.  Whether or not the owners care about that (Dallas/Cuban) is another matter.  The following are listed in order of 2008-9 PER, an imperfect yet objective ranking. Incidentally,  Blake has a PER value of 14.49, Outlaw 15.15 which are both higher than often mentioned targets Hinrich/ Battier. Obviously, most would agree they would rather have the latter on the roster, primarily because their defensive talents aren't reflected by PER.

Whom do you think are reasonable/ desirable targets for an in-season acquisition (esp. if their teams underperform)?

 

Team	POS	Player	PER	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
SAS	1	Tony Parker	23.47	12,600,000	13,500,000
LAC	5	Chris Kaman	23.20	10,400,000	11,300,000	12,200,000
MIN	4	Al Jefferson	23.16	12,000,000	13,000,000	14,000,000	15,000,000
NJN	1	Devin Harris	21.65	8,400,000	8,981,000	9,319,000	8,500,000
ORL	1	Jameer Nelson	20.66	7,700,000	7,700,000	7,700,000	7,700,000
WAS	4	Antawn Jamison	20.63	11,641,095	13,358,905	15,076,715
LAC	1	Baron Davis	19.85*	12,100,000	13,000,000	13,900,000	14,750,000
PHX	2	Leandro Barbosa	19.44	6,600,000	7,100,000	7,600,000
DAL	2	Jason Terry	19.35	9,075,000	9,873,000	10,658,000
SAC	2	Kevin Martin	19.25	9,680,170	10,600,005	11,519,840	12,439,675
GSW	5	Andris Biedrins	19.16	9,000,000	9,000,000	9,000,000	9,000,000
NOH	4	David West	19.00	9,075,000	8,287,500	7,525,000
GSW	1	Monta Ellis	18.92*	11,000,000	11,000,000	11,000,000	11,000,000
DEN	1	Chauncey Billups	18.85	12,100,000	13,150,000	14,200,000
DEN	5	Nene	18.83	10,520,000	11,360,000	11,600,000
WAS	3	Caron Butler	18.83	10,030,970	10,811,960
TOR	1	Jose Calderon	18.8	8,219,008	9,000,000	9,780,992	10,561,983
CHA	3	Gerald Wallace	18.64	9,500,000	9,500,000	9,500,000	9,500,000
PHI	3	Andre Iguodala	18.49	12,200,000	12,345,250	13,531,750	14,718,250
OKC	4	Nick Collison	18.39	6,350,000	6,850,000
IND	4	Troy Murphy	17.81	11,047,619	11,968,255
ATL	4	Josh Smith	17.28	10,800,000	11,600,000	12,400,000	13,200,000
CLE	1	Marurice Williams	17.25	8,860,000	9,300,000	8,500,000	8,500,000
DAL	3	Josh Howard	17.06	10,890,000	11,835,000
DET	2	Richard Hamilton	16.93	11,625,000	11,333,333	11,333,333	11,333,334
GSW	3	Corey Maggette	16.91	8,937,931	9,600,000	10,262,069	10,924,138
IND	1	T.J. Ford	16.63	8,500,000	8,500,000
GSW	3	Stephen Jackson	16.2	7,650,000	8,453,250	9,256,500	10,059,750
CHI	2	John Salmons	16.03	6,429,151	5,808,000
DET	3	Tayshaun Prince	15.09	10,324,380	11,148,760
CHI	3	Luol Deng	14.74	10,365,000	11,345,000	12,325,000	13,365,000
CHA	4	Boris Diaw	14.5	9,000,000	9,000,000	9,000,000
IND	2	Mike Dunleavy	14.48	9,780,992	10,561,984
CHI	1	Kirk Hinrich	13.97	9,500,000	9,000,000	8,000,000
HOU	3	Shane Battier	10.68	6,864,200	7,354,500

* 2007-8 PER used due to significant injury in past season

UPDATE:  Additional article that says that the Jazz might be interested in David Lee - (read somewhere else, he might accept a 1 yr deal?)

This feed brings up the rumor; but dismisses it, shortly thereafter.  The logic to dismiss doesn't hold up if we're talking about a post-Millsap matched world.  Speculation on what the trade might look like follows:

According to ESPN, the previous 3 way discussion was stalled because CHI wanted a backcourt addition (Jerryd Bayless) and UTA wanted a younger replacement for Boozer (Tyrus Thomas).  With the Knicks in the mix; they have two RFAs that roughly fit those roles in Nate Robinson, David Lee.  If Utah is less concerned about the luxury tax, and more concerned about letting Boozer get away for nothing it would make sense for them to work out a S&T for Lee around the ~$9M he's expecting to put together a solid front-court rotation (Millsap, Lee, Okur)

What would the Knicks get?  Perhaps they could unload Jared Jeffries and his two year contract to maximize cap/ '10 free agency plan).  Blake and Outlaw would make them more respectable in the upcoming season.  They probably already miss Jerome James so bring him back to NY, as well.

Knicks give up: Jared Jeffries ($6.5M), David Lee (S&T, $9M), Nate Robinson (S&T, $5.2M) = $20.7M
Knicks get:  Blake ($4M), Outlaw (3.6M), Jerome James (6.6M), Matt Harpring ($6.5M) = $20.7M

Bulls give up:  Kirk Hinrich ($9.5M), Jerome James (6.6M), = $16.1M
Bulls get:  Carlos Boozer (1 yr rental, $12.6M), Nate Robinson ($5.2M) = $17.8M

Uta gives up:  Carlos Boozer (12.4M), Harpring ($6.5M) = $18.9M
Uta gets:  David Lee (~$9M) +$9.9M cap relief

Portland gives up:  Blake ($4M), Outlaw ($3.6M), + $8.4M CAP (renounce Koponen)
Portland gets:  Kirk Hinrich ($9.5M), Jared Jeffries ($6.5M) = $16M

I favor a simpler Hinrich move, but am not sure that's on the table and although Hinrich detractor will say it's too high a price - I actually think Jeffries might be an asset to the Blazers, who is a capable defender at multiple positions.

Hinrich/ Bayless/ Mills (PG/SG)
Roy/ Fernandez
Webster/ Batum/ Cunningham (SF/PF)
Aldridge/ Jeffries
Oden/ Przybilla/ Pendergraph (PF/C)

I'm not sure how sign & trade deals work with the cap, so please educate me on the viability of this idea. But it's worth noting that when Chicago could not deal Tim Thomas they decided to waive him - which although it doesn't get them under the cap - get them closer.  Click through this link to see the deal without Lee/ Robinson involved.

Thoughts?

Starting to hear a lot of people content with "doing nothing" if the Millsap offer is matched.  I recognize it might be a reality; but don't like it because it:

a)  puts time pressure on the Blazers to get the deal done by trade deadline

b)  reduces the current $7.7M in capspace, that exists with the current 10 man roster.  I may need an expert to verify - but even if only 14 players are carried at minimum wouldn't that mean a $3M reduction in cap?  Even to facilitate a trade, wouldn't the cap still be in place, if waived?

c) disrupts in-season chemistry

If the Millsap plan doesn't go through, the Blazers will go after free agent Brandon Bass, a young power forward who played for Dallas last season.

Excellent post by Grigs on whether or not the Millsap offer is the end game.  My bet is on the 3 way trade, delivering Captain Kirk. Who might the Blazers be sending out ?  If the Hinrich deal goes down, prior to the free agency signing, and the remaining cap $$ are spent on free agency - here's a look at what that budget might be.  If Bass is the target which of these scenarios is most likely (eg - how much cap needs to be in place for Brandon Bass to sign)?

I know, I know there is probably a more appropriate thread already created - but I can't find it and I just have to vent about the same response I hear everytime Captain Kirk is mentioned.  It's goes something like this:

 "Sure, Hinrich might be a little bit better - but he gets paid more than twice as much as Blake and his $10M contract would be a burden."

According to Storyteller site, Hinrich makes $9.5M for the upcoming season, $9M for 10-11, and $8M in 11-12.  Blake's $4M contract expires after the upcoming season.  What happens then? If Blake is as others have suggested 80% of the player that Hinrich is; he's not going to settle for the chicken scratch that he previously made.  Even if you assume a "nice guy" discount a three-year contract of $5-$6M/ annually would be on the low end.  Right?  Or wrong? (take the poll, below)

Much focus is on what to do with the cap & upgrading if you can with a SF that can also play back-up PF (see links to recent discussions on: Gerald Wallace, Lamar Odom, Marvin Williams, Shane Battier, Shawn Marion) , but unless Devin Harris falls into your lap the Blazers second move should be to pull the trigger on the Hinrich-Blake/Outlaw swap rumored to be available so that Chicago can make their play for Wade in 2010.

When I hear things like Ariza getting a ridiculous contract amount or that the Blazers appear to be overpaying for Turkoglu it makes me wonder if GMs approach their job a little like the  "use it or lose it" approach common to public sector budgeting - where there is a mad dash to spend at the end of the year, so that they'll have the same amount of money to spend next year, in case it is needed.  (my apologies to those in government - I sincerely hope that's improving but that is the conventional view & it happens in the private sector as well)

We all know that the Blazers will be going over the cap one way or the other after Roy and Aldridge are resigned.  Therefore, if funds are infinite (Uncle Paul Allen = Uncle Sam); wouldn't the team that has $85M in contracts have more market power than the team that has $65M in contracts, if both are over the cap?  In other words; Assuming there is a blend of inexpensive, young talent in the mix if the Blazers ID a superstar who is a better fit they might be able to package that $2M salaried player with Turkoglu's $10M and acquire that "perfect fit" $12M player.  Otherwise, they would have to scrap together multiple "young stars" $2M contracts to make a salary match.

Is Kevin Pritchard guilty of this? (SPAM, for SPAM sake)

I think most would agree that the Blazers may be able to meet several offseason goals given their assets and flexibility.  However, I've found it's very difficult to form an overall strategy if there is not some consensus built on what the top priority goal is.  Focus should be on attaining that goal, and after that is determined; the remaining assets can be allocated towards secondary goals.  For instance; If the Blazers are going after a free agent they should be looking to shed salary in the draft - a very different approach than taking on salaries to improve their draft position.

Therefore, I've attempted to categorize all acquisition categories that I've heard of into the following seven buckets.  I've purposefully, left out scenarios like trading up to get Blair/Hansbrough because they are not regarded as a top 10 player in this draft, and therefore this would be a secondary move.  What would be your top priority move, that you believe is attainable/realistic with the given resource?  Have I left out any scenarios?

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The trade exception that the Blazers gained in the Diogu trade can be used in the same way that the Blazers landed James Jones & the rights to Rudy Fernandez.

If (BIG IF) the Blazers decide they want to improve by trade rather than by maximizing cap space for free agency, they may be able to maximize their draft position by "unburdening" any of the following team who have players making $1.5-$3M and have guaranteed contracts for next season.  Although we know that Minnesota is trying to move up in the draft - it's obvious they'll be active and it's of interest that they have several players on the list.

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ESPN's summary of draft buzz included the following:

The Wizards are taking offers for #5

Etan Thomas, Mike James and Darius Songaila seem to be the three players the Wizards wouldn't mind getting off the books.

The Knicks are in the mix trying to get Rubio/ Curry

The Knicks have offered Larry Hughes for Thomas and James.

The Bulls are also trying to move up:

Chicago has talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping No. 16 and No. 26 to get into the lottery

The Blazers are interested in Hinrich, and maximizing their assets:

....sources say Portland's real target is Bulls point guard Kirk Hinrich.

Taking all those things together is there a trade to help each team capitalize on their goals?

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Yahoo reports that the Blazers are after Kidd.  Can you imagine the potential bidding war between Paul Allen and Mark Cuban?

For now, the Blazers are trying to find a taker for point guard Sergio Rodriguez(notes) and his $1.6 million salary. They’re interested in Dallas Mavericks free agent Jason Kidd(notes), too. The Mavericks want to keep Kidd, who will probably ask for $8 million a season.

Let's assume the "other" vet PGs [i.e. only slightly younger Miller or Bibby, K Hinrich (yes, please) and youngest Sessions (meh!)] are off the table.  

The Blazers have made their picks/ trades and there are no significant backcourt additions. Blake and Rodriguez are traded away leaving only Bayless and the choice of the following two "past their prime PGs". (assume Nash opts out).  They have maneuvered to be able to meet these contract demands - but should they?

How should a team manage it's last five roster slots?  15 active NBA players is too many, but considering that the Blazers like many NBA teams may lose someone that was expected be in the rotation to injury (ref: Miles, Oden, Webster), most team do use all 15 slots.

Obviously, Bayless, was very hungry for minutes - but the fact that the other slots 12-15 had no real expectation of playing time might have helped in keeping disruption minimal.  What do you see as an ideal "bottom 5"?

With picks #24, #33, #38, #55, #56 you may be tempted to simply list the your five favorite players coming out of this year's draft class.  Feel free to list yours.... But would that be heatlhy to introduce 5 players from the same draft class hungry to "make their mark" in the NBA?  Also, is it realistic that the Blazers would be able to trade 4 players for 2, without taking back some baggage and/or upgrading draft picks?  For argument sake; let's consider the roster as follows, the Blazers have used: Rodriguez, Blake, Outlaw, and Frye to acquire the best PG available and a backup PF, and maximize their first round pick, and have an infinite # of 2nd round picks.

PG:  PG/ Bayless

SG: Roy/ Fernandez

SF: Webster/ Batum

PF: Aldridge/ VET PF

C:  Oden/ Przybilla

Let us know your best formula with or without names. For me, last year served as a good template, with each player designated as follows:

11) Bayless (PROSPECT)

12) Diogu/ Ruffin (POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTOR)

13) Randolph (HAPPY TO BE HERE)

14) LaFrentz (VET $ BAGGAGE)

15) Webster (IR)

2009-10

11) PF -Draft using 1st round pick (PROSPECT; i.e Blair)

12) PG - Use highest available 2nd Round pick, possibly someone that could play some SG (POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTOR; ie. Collison, or other "low floor/ceiling" player)

13) C - Give a minimum contract to the best available C (HAPPY TO BE HERE; i.e. Joel Anthony)

14) SF -Designated spot for player we get back with $3M trade exception or salary cap dump (VET $ BAGGAGE - i.e Mark Madsen, although not a SF, and not a particularly burdensome contract)

15) SG - Late 2nd round pick/ D-Leaguer (i.e. Jerel McNeal); should anyone in the playing rotation be in the IR slot here.  However, with the versatility of the current roster it's unlikely even with an injury that this player would get time.

Past history is that restricted free agents mostly return to their existing teams. In projecting offseason activity - I'm more interested in where the unrestricted free agents end up.

I've spent some time on the salary sites to compile the below list of 09-10 projected salaries.  For this exercise, all team options were utilized.  I'd like your help in linking any articles that indicate whether each team is in a "buy" or "sell" mode.   I added a few articles from RealGM.  Beneath that list are the impactful free agents - I'm trying to track any teams that might be interested.  I'll update links with your help.

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