"We will pick 2 corners within the first 4 rounds" - 2009
"We will have 4 new linebackers via FA and the draft" - 2010

Those were my "predictions" the last two years and many of you heavily debated my thoughts.  I had us selecting Jake Long in 2008 but that was pretty much a no-brainer, so that doesn't count.

In 2009, not only did we select 2 corners early, we did it in the first 2 rounds, not the first 4 rounds.  I was hoping for an outside linebacker first but had us selecting either R.Brace and D.Butler in the second, but the Pats grabbed both of them before we had a chance (which was okay, because that allowed Pat White to slip to us).  Either way, I knew it wasn't going to be a wideout like many of you were hoping (and I liked H.Nicks If that were to happen).

In 2010, not only did we start the new year with 4 new linebackers we started with 5 and then picked up M.Johnson, who by the way I had a mancrush on.  Misi and Edds were both on my radar that year but Odrick came out of nowhere for me.  I truly believed we would select at least one of my favorites last year, S.Kindle and T.Cody.  Thank goodness we didn't.  Apparently, I should be drafting either for the Ravens or the Patriots.

So now to this year.  Before this whole thing started, back when Cam Newton was a possible option at 15 (yeah, that far back), I made this statement in many of my comments here at Phinsider: (Secretly I like Ryan Mallett).  Which wasn't laughed at but it also didn't get much consideration.  Apparently now he is all the rage for that selection at 15.  Yes I have spent 3 paragraphs tooting my own horn; but isn't that was posting your predictions for all to see is about?

On to my predictions.  We will trade down not up.  I'm not even going to talk about trading up because as I have stated before, it a preposterous notion.  If (and that's a big IF) we don't trade down and stay at 15, there are, in my mind 3 options:  R.Mallett, M.Pouncy and A.Smith (or another defensive stud, see below).  I know many of you think we are going to select a quarterback early this year (secretly, I like Ryan Mallett) but Ireland and Sparano are going to stick with Henne, and quite frankly, I'm alright with that.  Check Here for a discussion on that.  If we draft a quarterback, either Mallett, or Kaepernick (who I secretly like as well), I believe it comes from Ross and that automatically gives Ireland and Sparano a two year pass.  I guess Ponder, Locker, and Dalton are all viable options as well but they don't really bring that "wow factor" that the Dolphins are  Ross is looking for.  Mike Pouncey makes sense at 15,  I also like Gabe Carimi at 15.  Let's face it, the Dolphins O.Line needs serious help, regardless of which quarterback is either throwing the ball or running for their life or which halfback is either running the ball or throwing up their breakfast.  A defensive player at 15 might be a disappointment for many of you but I would not be surprised to see Aldon Smith picked here.  Matty  posted a story about this featuring Robert Quinn a few weeks ago.  Unfortunately, Quinn stock is up and he probably won't be there.  Also, don't be surprised to see us pick a DB, DT or another DE if one of those "top ten" players slip.  Which brings us to the other scenario.

What we hope is that a team has a crush on one of those (Fairly, Jordan, Liuget, Amukamara, etc.) type players fall to us so we can get great value in a trade.  Either way, a trade down in my eyes, is fairly eminent one way or the other.  I see us selecting an outside pass rushers and defensive back and at least 2 offensive lineman in this draft.  I also see us selecting a tight end in the middle rounds and then running backs and wideouts last.  Basically, strength positions early and speed late.  I don't usually do a mocks, but just for fun: 

(1) Jimmy Smith DB - With the Smith's at corner, no one will want to throw at us and that moves Vontae to free safety, he won't have to play man every down and can now use his size and speed to play all over the field, he crushes people in run defense and he has disproved the notion that he doesn't have ball skills - we now have the best backfield in the NFL and Clemons and Jones can play backup until either takes over for Bell. Other options: Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith (I think B.Reed and J.Houston could be selected in the first round also, but probably not by us)

(2) Dontay Moch OLB - Think Elvis Dumervil with elite speed, outside of Wake and Misi we don't have much coming off the edge and with Crowder and Edds both coming back from injury, the linebacker stable doesn't look as good as it should.  With Moch splitting reps with Misi he could become the blitzer we want opposite Wake (EarthWake and Moch 10? [I know, corny]), but then we would certainly have the versatility in the middle of the field that Nolan loves and Misi could eventually take over Crowders position.  Other options: Rahim Moore, Justin Houston, Martez Wilson, Brooks Reid

(3)  Clint Boling OG - We need big, strong, intelligent players at guard that can pull and protect. Some drafts have him going higher, I'm not sure.  He isn't the most athletically gifted player but he was a team captain, has great football IQ, plays with a nasty demeanor, and might start right away...perfect for us.   We could also try to get one of the two hybrids that I like, O.Franklin and B. Ijalana, but they probably won't be available.  Other options: Rodney Hudson, Stefen Wisniewski

(4)  John Moffit OG- Some mocks have him higher, some lower, who cares...this is my mock.  He has the versatility that Sparano loves and can even play center.  Just like the man above, he is battle tested, intelligent and a former team captain with a nasty demeanor.  He might be one of the slowest guys in the draft but he has the kind of "stuff" we want on our line. I also like a particular center with a very high ceiling here.  Other options: Brian Fusco

(5)  DJ Williams TE - This round has tight end written all over it, Kendrick and Stocker will be gone by our fourth round pick and there are a few options now at tight end.  We don't need a starter but we need at least an equally talented tight end opposite Fasano.  Williams can run routes, stretch the seam and is versatile enough to play H-back.  Julius Thomas is intriguing here but Williams is a sure thing.  Other options: Julius Thomas, Virgil Green

(6)  DeMarcus Love OT/OG - Again, great size, strength, awareness, and a team captain.  He has the least polish of the 3 Lineman chosen so far but he also has the highest ceiling.  If we have Boling, Love, Moffit and John Jerry battling in camp with Moffit also challenging at center and have a healthy Nate Garner to back up Carey, I think we can all feel very comfortable about our line for a while.  Yes? Yes.

(7)  Mario Fannin RB -  With Brown gone we need some players to replace him, who better than another Auburn product.  He's got size and speed and comes from a great program.  I would also be happy if wide receiver Denarius Moore were available here, probably not, but we are thinner at running back than we are at wide receiver anyway.  Other options: Denarius Moore

(7)  Noel Devine RB - You want speed, you got it.  Fannin has a little bit of both but if you want pure speed nothing says it like a 4.26 40 yard dash.  If we don't sign Sproles (which we will), this guy could play that position for us.  I would almost rather us select Da'Rel Scott (5'11", 200) here simply because I get scared of running backs that weigh less than Pat White...oh, and Devine is also a WV Mountaineer, just like the retired former Dolphin.  Other options: Da'Rel Scott

(7)  Aldrick Robinson WR - Hey!, finally a wide receiver.  He's not the prototypical wide receiver at 5'10, 185 pounds but I think the player that I like better here will have intrigued some other team to take him prior to this pick.  Ricardo Lockette is who I like better and it is because of his size and the better 40, he ran a 4.34 and Robinson ran a 4.41, either way both receivers will give us the speed we're looking for at wideout.  Other options:  Ricardo Lockette,Kevin Durham (sleeper pick - played along side AJ Green at Georgia, the kid is 6'5", 217 lbs and runs a 4.43, and he can catch too.)

Now, the prediction I hope to add to my signature this year is:

We will draft 3 offensive lineman in this years draft - 2011

Bolder prediction:

We will draft a defensive player first and 3 offensive lineman in this years draft - 2011

If you don't agree with me on the offensive line thing...please go look at our roster and tell me that we have another position to worry about more. Yep, Jake Long...that's it.  Vernon Carey is already being moved inside by some fans because of his injuries.  Incognito wasn't great at guard last year and has never started at center in the NFL.  Nate Garner is coming off an injury and up to this point is just a great backup.  John Jerry? Rookie coming off injury.  Corey Proctor? Lydon Murtha?  So our starting line is Long, Proctor, Incognito, Jerry, Carey with Garner and Murtha backing them up.  Uh...yeah, lets put Mallett or Ponder behind that or let Ingram or Leshoure run behind that.  Suddenly I make a lot of sense huh?

THE DRAFT IS ALMOST HERE...THANKS FOR READING!!!!!!

.....in the first few rounds unless the quarterback can give Henne a real challenge to start this year....

There are only a few quarterbacks in this years draft that are projected to be able to start successfully next year in the NFL and thus truly challenge Henne for a starting position this year.  Those few are Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Christian Ponder, and Ryan Mallett.  Gabbert and Newton will be gone, (the notion that the Phins will trade up to draft one of them is preposterous), Ponder is a little too much of a reach at 15, so that leaves my secret (well not so secret these days) favorite, Ryan Mallett as the only quarterback (I realize that the Dolphins could select Ponder and many would be happy with that choice, and quite honestly it wouldn't hurt my feelings either, but this is my write up so it's based on my opinions) choice at 15.  However, the Dolphins will find a trade partner and draft the following positions before they address quarterback:  interior offensive lineman, pass rusher, tight end, defensive back, and maybe even running back.  The dolphins will sign a veteran quarterback to compete/backup Chad Henne.

Think about it, let's say:  [1] Miami draft's Colin Kaepernick (who i really like also), Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, or Ricky Stanzi, who all need a few years of development.....and [2] Henne beats them out in camp (which would probably happen given his experience with the team).....then [3] Henne goes down with an injury.....yikes!  As a fan or a coach would you rather have a veteran or a rookie quarterback to turn to if Henne goes down?.....or [4] the rookie wins the starting job over Henne in camp and then either fails miserably or gets injured.  Now, you are forced to put an obviously defeated Henne out there again. By obviously defeated, I mean this:

(1) Trial by fire in 2009, starting with the third game of the season he takes over the starting position during the time he was supposed to be learning from the bench.  (2)  After a 4-4 start in 2010, Henne lost his starting job to Pennington.  (3)  Henne comes off the bench for injured Pennington in the very next game and then goes down with an injury of his own.  (4) Henne takes over the starting position again in week 13.  (5) Henne was benched twice in the last game of the season in favor of Tyler Thigpen.

Henne has yet to start every game of a full season and by it's own admission, the entire team was a frustrating debacle from top to bottom aside from the defense, which wasn't perfect either for that matter.  Ownership, General Manager, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinater, Special Teams.....almost everyone had a bad year.  Brandon Marshall and Sean Smith dropped balls, DC$ missed field goals, the O-Line moved nobody, the R&R Express was more gocart than train, even Cam Wake fell off the Richter scale in the end.  The whole team was in turmoil this off-season and who's job is still up in the air....for the third year in a row??

Let me ask all of you a few questions.  Raise your hand if you thought Henne was awesome that first year he replaced Pennington?  Raise your hand if you think the Dolphins adversely affected his progression in games by stalling his drives with the "3rd down Wildcat play-calling??  Raise your hand if you think the Dolphins did Chad an injustice by challenging his starting position in camp with now retired Pat White?  Raise your hand if you think the Dolphins made a mistake by forcing him share snaps the following year with Kansas City Royal Pat White???  Now, who thinks that the Chad Henne of 2009 got a fair shake in 2010????  For that matter, who thinks he is getting a fair shake now, after having the fairly common "sophomore slump"?????

For the above reasons, it's probably only going to be Ryan Mallett (or Christian Ponder) drafted in the first half of the draft.  It may also be the same scenario for running back, Mark Ingram at 15 or bust.  If the Phins do not select any of these guys at 15, look for those positions to be drafted late.

The Dolphins want a solid offense that can impose it's will, control the clock, pound the ball, move the chains and keep the opposing defenses honest with the occasional deep ball.  That's it.....get used to it.  The only thing that's going to change this year is the "Wildcat on 3rd and 15" type play calling.

Do we have a great interior line? How 'bout a pulling guard? (draft pick)

Do we have a starting center...really? (draft pick)

Do we have an end zone target tight end that can realistically stretch the field? (draft pick)

The Dolphins want to have the best defense in football.  Many will say different...but defense wins games.  More games are won by keeping the other team from scoring points than are won by outscoring the other team, especially in the post-season.  At some point you must stop the other team in order to win.  For this reason....we WILL draft defense this year.

If Crowder goes out, who (besides Edds, who was on my draft wish list last year, but is still unproven) do we have to replace him?? (draft pick)

If we can get a better pass rusher (Misi was on my wish list also and I think he will be a great NFL linebacker) opposite Cam Wake...are we a better defense?? (draft pick)

If Smith or Davis go down, who do we start opposite the other...and what does that do to our nickel and dime packages?? (draft pick)

If Bell goes down...and/or if the Phins can find a better safety in the draft?? (draft pick)

This is the first post I have made for this off-season but I will provide a list of free-agents we might sign and which players we might draft soon.  I will also provide my "yearly prediction statement" for the draft.  Many of you probably  remember my '09 and '10 predicitons (Jake Long was a no-brainer)......if you don't, I proudly display them in my signature.  Ciao for now Dolphin faithful.

Did anyone listen to the commentary on the game yesterday?  This really threw me so I had to share it with you all to see if any of you caught it or anything else you thought was "funny".  This was the call on Wilfork against Henne on one of his trips into the gut of our line...untouched.

At the same time that "what's his face" says: "get a look, that's helmet to helmet."

Rich Gannon says, verbatim: "That's tough on a player like Vince WIlfork...the quarterback, right in the last second, lowers his left shoulder and his head...and Vince WIlfork can't make the adjustment at the last second."

Yeah...ol' chad henne cant do anything right...apparently he is the cause of that penalty too...if he would have just kept his head out of the way of a charging vince wilfork...it would have been another punt for the patriots...

DARN HENNE!!

I told several of you several weeks ago that I would soon share my thoughts on the draft.  I just posted the reply below on the Big Blue View after dolfan0918 posted about it.  So here it is, with more to come later.

Many of the things you guys have pointed out about Parcells is true of his history and reputation. He probably won’t draft a "project" like Pierre-Paul.  He probably won’t give first round money to a finesse position, so that takes care of WR and S. We know he likes size so that removes any linebacker under 6’2" regardless of how fast his "motor" runs.

What we know for certain is that he likes guys that are "big and tall". Actually, before we signed Incognito I thought we might have gone after an OG in the first 4 or 5 rounds.

What we also can agree on is that he probably won’t draft BPA without regard to positional need. That leaves us with OLB and NT, in that order. For weeks and weeks and weeks I have been talking about Kindle and Cody. "I was country Cody……when country Cody wasn’t cooo-oool, yeah…..I was country Kindle…… when country Kindle wasn’t cool." (ring a bell?? think Barbara Mandrell……ok, I’m a dork)

Seriously though, both of these guys are good at doing the one thing we need from their respective positions. Kindle can pressure the QB while setting the edge and Cody can collapse the line while taking on multiple blocks. The rest of their development can be worked out between them and Mike Nolan. Don’t be too quick to rule out the possibility of us still taking McClain…stranger things have happened and he definitely is a solid player…but I doubt it.

so there you have it, our FIRST ROUND PICK…..

and our SECOND ROUND PICK........