Magnum

John Hollinger chat from ESPN "(J in Portland): blazers: over/under 50 wins? John Hollinger: I say under, by quite a bit. Portland fans are stoked about this team's potential, and it's possible they achieve it this season ... but much more likely that this is an up-and-down type year that hints at what's to come. Phil (PDX): Give us your prediction for top three pics for ROY this year... please. John Hollinger: Three, and exactly three, players will be in the running -- Greg Oden, Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose. Everyone else can forget about it. Smart money is on Oden since he had a year to bulk up. Brandon (Portland, Or): Sleeper Alert: Nicolas Batum is suprising the heck out of people in Portland with his play so far, especially after being terrible in summer league. Nate has even mentioned the possibility of him starting with Webster going down and Outlaw's effectivness with the second unit. Your thoughts on Batum and his potential? Looks like a potential future defensive stopper. John Hollinger: This is the part where I remind people not to get all jacked up over a single preseason game. It's nice that he played well, but let's not start shoving aside rotation players just yet. Lamar (FAROCKAWAY NY): besides the blazer name another lottery team thats gonna be alot better this year ? John Hollinger: Minnesota might be a lot better, though they have a long way to go. If they can get into the teens in Defensive Efficiency they could be this year's Portland, because they're gonna score points. In the East, Charlotte and Indiana are my sleepers to take the last two playoff spots. David (Portland): Your saying Rudy has no chance for ROY? Absolutly entertaining, and already knows the pro game. John Hollinger: No chance. Won't play enough and won't play well enough when he does. He's gonna be fantastic, but don't get ahead of yourself on this one. In fact, as a calming exercise, go back and look at Manu's first-year stats. Manu's first year stats: 02-03 SAS GP: 69 Started: 5 Min: 20.7 FG/Atts: 2.5-5.8 FG%: .438 3pts/Atts 0.7-2.1 3pt% .345 Fts/Atts 1.8-2.5 Ft% .737 Stls: 1.4 T/O: 1.4 Rebs: 2.4 Assists: 2.0 Pts: 7.6 Jake - Redondo Beach: John - how do you envision Rudy Fernandez fitting into Portland's rotation? John Hollinger: I'll guess 15-20 minutes a night, toward the lower end at first and then increasing as the year goes on, subbing in for Roy and then periodically playing together with him in the backcourt when Roy moves to point, or at the 3 when Nate goes small.

Excerpts from John Hollinger's chat on ESPN.com. These were the two main questions regarding our Blazers. They both refer to Hollinger's preseason prediction of the Blazers, here: Oden (Rose Garden): You know I have enough chips on my shoulder right? But to say my presence this season is good for a one game difference from last season? Now I have a buffalo chip on my shoulder! John Hollinger: Lots of Blazers fans complaining about the projection. Here's the disconnect: If Oden had been out fo this season too, how many games would you have Portland pegged to win? My answer would be in the low-to-mid-30s. So saying Oden adds only one win is putting words in my mouth -- it's more like he offsets what otherwise would have been a regression. Rudy (Portland, OR): Portland would be a 30-win team without Oden??? Wow! I'm pretty sure they were a 41-win team without Oden last year!!! And they young core of talent is a year older, wiser, and better. And they are arguably the deepest team in the NBA. They would eclipse their mark from last year again this year without Oden, and with him, they'll easily win atleast 48-50. John Hollinger: I think a lot of Blazer fans think that way, which is why I brought the point up. They're excited about the young guards, and so am I -- but rookie guards normally struggle, and they're replacing two productive players in Jack and Jones. They're excited about the other young guys, but Portland also got unusually strong years from a couple older guys (Blake, Pzybilla) that aren't likely to repeat, and whlle they had a few injuries they were more healthy than most. They also had the point differential of a 37-win team, not a 41. So that's where the disparity is between what a lot of Blazer fans project and what I'm projecting.