Grit. Hustle. Heart. Scrap. These are all words that baseball commentators use to describe certain players and they way they play the game.  However, some informal studies so far have shown that these words may in fact be racially coded (see every word written about David Eckstein).  In the last couple years, Seth over at Dingersblog.com has done an informal study and recording of the usage of these and other code words (results can be found here, here and here).  

However, now they are looking to take it to the next level and make it a little more scientific by hiring 30 people to watch 30 games each and record usages of different code words during broadcasts.  Because this is an intense project, they are looking for help with funding.  Click here to go to the funding page and a video describing the project in more detail (and probably more clearly) than I have here.  Any little bit you can give would be appreciated.  

Within the last 12 hours there have been some curious moves in the minor leagues.  First, last night Mike Carp was pulled from the Tacoma lineup 30 minutes before game time with no further explanation.  Prior to that, Guillermo Pimentel was lifted after one AB in Pulaski with the team saying that it was "an internal matter" and would not comment further.  Now, Carp and Pimentel, while they could project to be starters, aren't exactly centerpieces for a large trade, so it should be interesting to see if Triunfel plays today, or if some other higher-ceiling prospect is removed.  Of course, it could simply be that Carp was being pissy about being demoted and Pimentel didn't run out a play or something, or it could be something larger.  Stay tuned.

It's a dilemma that even the most optimistic of us in December would not have forseen.  The Mariners are 2 games out of first and alone in second place in the AL West.  However, they also have tremendous SP and RP depth that can be traded at the deadline a little over a month away.  Primarily, Erik Bedard's resurgence has made him one of the best available pitchers...if he is indeed available.

The main question of this fanpost is:  It is the week of July 31st and the deadline is approaching.  How far back do the Mariners have to be behind the Rangers before you consider trading Bedard?  Where do you draw The Bedard Line?

Before coming up with a number, a few things need to be considered: the remaining schedule, Bedard's health, the effects of fatigue on the Mariners (mainly the starting pitchers), the lack of SP options in Tacoma, the holes in the 2012 roster that a trade can address, the trade market itself, and Jack Zduriencik's history at the deadline and job security.  Let's examine these in turn.

Continue reading this post »

Relocation of the A's or Rays has been the recent talk du jour, along with the lingering specter of contraction.  I don't see contraction being an option (too hard of a sell to the players union, among other myriad complications), but if the A's and Rays don't get a new stadium deal soon, I could easily see relocationchat coming up again.  With that in mind, I thought I'd put together a primer on possible relocation sites.  

So where exactly is the best place for relocation, especially given the current economic climes?  Well let's start off with top Metropolitan Statistical Areas that lack a baseball team

Rank     MSA                                                               2009 Pop         2000 Pop         Change           

23        Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA                      2,241,841        1,927,881        +16.29%

25        Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA MSA       2,127,355        1,796,857        +18.39%

27        Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA                     2,082,421        1,644,561        +26.62%

28        San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA                     2,072,128        1,711,703        +21.06%

30        Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA                                   1,902,834        1,375,765        +38.31%

31        San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA               1,839,700        1,735,819        +5.98%

33        Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC MSA             1,745,524        1,330,448        +31.20%

34        Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA                                   1,743,658        1,525,104        +14.33

35        Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX MSA               1,705,075        1,249,763        +36.43%

These are the usual suspects when it comes to relocationchat. We'll talk about their current baseball markets later on.  For now, these areas are around the size of Cleveland and are all bigger than Milwaukee, which has an MLB team.  So moving to these areas is at least possible.  Now let's see how they've weathered the current economic cataclysm.

via i.imgur.com

(courtesy of http://www.brookings.edu/metro/MetroMonitor/overall_performance.aspx)

So from our list earlier, it looks like both Texas cities (San Antonio and Austin) have weathered the recession the best, while Indianapolis, Charlotte and Virginia Beach/Norfolk are also in the top 40%.  Vegas, Orlando, the California cities, as well as Portland, are all suffering more than normal and thus aren't primed for relocation.

So we've dwindled our list down to Austin, San Antonio, Indianapolis, Charlotte and Virginia Beach/Norfolk.  Let's take a look at their current baseball markets.  Austin and San Antonio are in Houston's market, Indianapolis is at the intersection between Chicago and Cincinnati markets, Charlotte is heavily in Braves nation, and VA Beach is in the Baltimore/Washington area. 

Of these, Virginia Beach might be the hardest sell, since moving the Expos to Washington took a lot of cajoling of Pete Angelos of the Orioles, and the MLB should be loath to bring in another team while the Nationals are still settling.

The other 3 areas (I'm merging San Antonio and Austin together, since they are relatively close and of similar economic standing in this recession) all seem like good candidates, and shouldn't harm their current baseball market teams too badly.

North Carolina has a lot of people and is doing well in this current recession thanks to reliance on high-technology and biomedical industries settling in the research triangle. While team in Charlotte would draw significant resistance from Atlanta, the Braves have a monopoly over most of the South, which is one of the more quickly growing regions of the US, so asking them to cede North Carolina shouldn't be fatal

Indianapolis would be a little trickier to sell.  Like NC, Indianapolis has survived thanks to the presence of Eli Lilly and other biomedical companies.  The Colts have one of the more fervent fanbases in all of football, so the city is capable of following a major sport.  The biggest obstacle is that it is in Cincinnati's market, and is almost the same size as Cincinnati.  Thus losing Indy would be a significant blow to the Red's TV market.  Plus, an Indianapolis-based team would have to rely on fans from central Indiana tuning in, which is not a lot of people, and these people have been following the Cubs for quite a while.

San Antonio/Austin seems the most feasible.  The areas are growing and are developing a nascent hi-technology corridor.  The two cities aren't too far apart (~80 miles) and thus a team could draw from two wealthy, growing metro areas, which should be enough of a TV market to succeed.  Houston is a big enough market that it should be able to deal with losing these 2 cities.

In conclusion, Charlotte and San Antonio/Austin seem to be the most fertile ground for re-location.  Charlotte could host the Rays and San Antonio the A's without disrupting the current divisional geographical alignment.

The bidding for Hisashi "Best Starting Pitcher in Japan not named Darvish" Iwakuma ended today, and the Mariners are in the lead, according to MLBTR. Iwakuma is known for his high ground-ball rates, thanks mainly to whatever the heck it is he throws in this video that drops off so suddenly

I just want to know where the supposed $13 million came from, and how that affects the 2011 payroll.  My total shot-in-the-dark guess is that he gets something close to 2/$10mil.

The Texas Rangers signed a 20 year, $3 billion TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest.  This averages out to $150 million per year before ticket revenue.  Needless to say, the balance of power in the AL West just shifted even further in favor of the Rangers.  Coupled with their farm system and current talent, Texas is in good shape to be a perennial contender.  Hopefully (?) this means they can keep the Yankees from getting Cliff Lee, but it also means they have a lot more money to spend in the FA market.  Talk about going from rags to riches.

Yikes.

It's May 24, the Mariners are 8.5 games back and 12 games under .500.  For a team that wasn't expected to finish the season more than ten games over .500, the playoffs are pretty much out of the realm of possibility for this year.  The Mariners have one of, if not the, best starting pitcher trading chip on the market.  Lee's talent, along with his cheap salary price tag, should be enough to get one top-tier prospect who can contribute in 2011 (think the CC Sabathia trade...although Matt LaPorta hasn't really panned out yet).  Going forward then, what type of player should the Mariners be targeting?  OF with pop?  1B/DH type?  Catcher?  Starting pitcher a year or two out?

Keep in mind, the title of this post is what should we try to get for Cliff Lee, NOT who.  Please keep talk to the abstract, the type of player that Z should go after, no specific names, lest we derail into rosterbation.

When asked whether or not he would waive his no-trade clause, Lance Berkman said today that he would waive it to help the Astros organization turn towards the future.  With the Padres contending/A-Gon most likely out of the M's trading range anyways, Berkman could be the biggest bat available on the market.  So, should the M's go after him? Let's weigh the pros and cons.

The Pros:

- Switch-hitter, but has more power from the left-hand side, which is tailored for Safeco

- Can actually hit home runs on a somewhat-consistent basis

- Is not totally incompetent at first base

- Can (or at least should) be had for a decent price without emptying the farm system

- Would necessitate getting Mike Sweeney off the team and drastically reduces Jr.'s ABs

The Cons

- Injury-plagued, 35 and coming off of a knee surgery

- His HR/FB and LD% rates have been declining rapidily since 2007, while his GB% has increased

- Is owed $14.5 million this season and has a $2 million buyout or a $15 million option for next season

My Take

The monetary cost is a bit high.  However, the complete and unmitigated disaster that is the Astros farm system should make them more willing to eat some of the contract for prospects, any prospects.  The cost shouldn't (hopefully) be more than one of Saunders/Triunfel or maybe a pitcher such as Fister/Vargas/RR-S and a couple other middling prospects.  Adding Berkman, and hopefully getting Bradley back, adds some lineup versatility with 3 switch hitters, two of which have at least a modicum of power and threat.  The downside is that in order to have them both in the lineup, one of them would have to be in the field at all times.  A rotating platoon of Kotchman/Berkman/Bradley/Langerhans at 1B/DH/LF will help keep the injuries down for Bradley and Berkman, at the cost of having their defense in the field.  However, the Mariners have shown that they are OK with Bradley in left field, so this shouldn't be too big of a problem.  A lineup of:

Ichiro

Figgins (PLEASE STOP STRIKING OUT)

Berkman

Bradley

Kotchman

Gutierrez

Lopez

Wilson

Comedy Catcher option

actually looks somewhat competent (though who knows how Wak would screw this up).  Depending on the price, both in terms of contract and prospects (and I'd like to think that Jack Z can somehow outwit Ed Wade), I say pull the trigger.

Another possibility, if the price for Berkman alone is too much, is that a third team could be brought in that would like to get Roy Oswalt, if the Astros truly go into selling mode.

So tomorrow, at 9 am PDT, dozens of players will find themselves without a team and hit the free-agency market, as they will not be tendered a contract.  This group of players offers an excellent opportunity for GMs with good talent evaluation (like, say, oh, I dunno....Jack Zduriencik) to find some diamonds in the rough to fill out some roster spots and be valuable additions.  I am sure MLBTR will run a constantly-updating list, but for now, they've highlighted some candidates here.  Here are some initial takes I have on the list, who might be of interest to the M's:

RHP Taylor Bucholz (COL): Looks like he could be a perfectly serviceable reliever, perhaps as some insurance in case White's injury is really bad and that rule 5 pick (Texiera) doesn't work out. EDIT: Apparently he had TJ surgery and can't pitch til after the ASB, so maybe not so much with this one.  He posted a 7.6 k/9 / 2.44 bb/9 line, with an xFIP of 3.93 and a WHIP of 0.95 (!) in 63 innings of work in Colorado.

C John Buck (KC): Could be a cheap backup-backup catcher to enter into spring training with.  Doesn't have any patience at the plate (career OBP ~.300), but he does have some "pop", slugging .484 last year.  However, his arm is a bit iffy, throwing out only 16% of base-stealers last year.

RHP DJ Carrasco (CWS): Another RHP, Carrasco won't be tendered thanks to the recent signing of J.J. Putz.  He had a bit of a down year in 2009, but still posted a 4.26 xFIP despite an unsually-high BABIP.

1B Conor Jackson (AZ): A cheap 1B in the mould of Adam LaRoche, Jackson provides an average bat (~.360 OBP/~.440 SLG in his healthy years) with an average glove for cheap.  The reason he is available is because he came down with Valley Fever last year, rendering him sluggish and fatigued.  He is currently hitting .415 in the Dominican League with 2 homers.  If the M's use their money on other positions, Jackson could be a good, cheap stopgap at first.

C Dioner Navarro (TB): Like Buck, Navarro could be a servicable backup catcher with potential upside.  After an average 2008 campaign (.349/.407) , Navarro plummeted back to earth in 09 (.261/.322).  Odds are Navarro's true talent lies somewhere between these lines.  Unlike Buck, Navarro has a decent arm, throwing out 30% of stealers in his career.

RHP Chien-Ming Wang (NYY): Getting non-tendered after being injured and homer-happy in 2009, Wang would be the ultimate low-risk, high-upside signing.  Wang relies heavily on ground-balls, and thus could really benefit from playing in Seattle with the Mariners defense behind him.

Anyways, these were just some names that jumped out at me.  Howsabout you?

Terrible news for the baseball world, as long-time, Hall Of Fame announcer Harry Kalas has passed away after collapsing in the Nationals press booth earlier today.  No early word as to the cause of death.

Being a Phillies fan and having lived in the Philly area for many a summer, this is a tragic blow.  His voice just personified baseball, and is going to be missed for a long time.

Only link so far from a beat reporter in Philly:

http://twitter.com/tzolecki

Per TMZ:

"Cops say someone driving a minivan blew through a red light, causing the Mitsubishi that Adenhart was riding in to hit a light pole. Three people were killed in the crash, including Nick." The van driver reportedly fled the scene before eventually being apprehended, and has been charged with felony hit-and-run."

Holy cow, that's just awful.  I can't imagine what friends, family and fans are going through.  Who do the Angels have to replace him?