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Marc Normandin

Mar 28, 2008 Jun 01, 2012 1351 2399

I got my start writing about baseball for an audience with Beyond the Box Score back in 2005, and have spent the subsequent years writing about the game for Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Sports Illustrated among others. I was also the video game editor at Blast Magazine for a few years; sadly, my experience seeing cosplay at gaming conventions won't help me as much here at SB Nation as we all wish it would.

I'm currently co-managing SB Nation's Red Sox blog Over the Monster and writing fantasy at FakeTeams.com in addition to contributing at mlb.sbnation.com.

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Over the Monster Red Sox Lineup 5/31/12: Scott Podsednik Leads Off

Photographic evidence of a Scott Podsednik homer in 2012. (Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE)

The headline might sound terrible, but Boston's plan is to destroy Max Scherzer with the use of left-handed hitters. Scherzer, a righty, generally mows down his fellow right-handed man, and while he certainly has his weaknesses, there's no reason to give him an inch, either. Hence Podsednik, along with three other lefties, as well as three switch-hitters.

You also have to remember that, without either Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia in there, things are going to look a little weird anyway. Observe:


Lineup

BOSTON RED SOX DETROIT TIGERS
Scott Podsednik - CF Quinton Berry - CF
Daniel Nava - LF Brennan Boesch - RF
Adrian Gonzalez - 1B Miguel Cabrera - 3B
David Ortiz - DH Prince Fielder - 1B
Kevin Youkilis - 3B Delmon Young - DH
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C Alex Avila - C
Ryan Sweeney - RF Jhonny Peralta - SS
Mike Aviles - SS Don Kelly - LF
Nick Punto - 2B Danny Worth - 2B

The Tigers are once again without Austin Jackson, who remains on the 15-day disabled list, and Andy Dirks, one of the few Tigers who has hit like crazy this year, is out of the lineup for the second game in a row. That's all to the good for Boston's starter tonight, Josh Beckett, as they attempt win #4 in a row in an otherwise quiet AL East.

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Over the Monster Max Scherzer's Odd 2012

Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The Red Sox will take on Max Scherzer tonight, as they attempt to sweep the Detroit Tigers and win their fourth game in a row. Just which version of Scherzer shows up is the question of the day, though, as he's somehow been both great and terrible in 2012. And not entirely because of poor luck, either.

Scherzer struggling to start the season is nothing new. But generally, this happens because something mechanical is off with the righty, and that generally means extra walks and fewer strikeouts than his stuff is capable of. In 2012, however, Scherzer is leading the American League in strikeouts per nine, and has a 3.8 K/BB -- that's clearly not the issue.

Part of this is on the poor defense behind Scherzer. The Tigers are near the bottom in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, and that's been problematic for him, helping him to a .400 batting average on balls in play. That being said, Scherzer has clearly spent a lot of time in the strike zone, and had difficulties there: he's giving up 1.7 homers per nine on the season to go along with the inflated BABIP.

Even with the absurd punch out rate, Scherzer has struggled to put hitters away. While ahead in the count, hitters are crushing him at a .417/.563/.767 clip, for a split-adjusted OPS+ of 173. He's nowhere near as good as you think someone leading the league in strikeout rate would be while ahead in the count either, as his sOPS+ there is 108, actually worse than your average pitcher.

According to PITCHf/x, the problem is with the lack of his secondary stuff doing what it should. His change-up already sits at -6 runs, and his slider is at -2.5. His fastballs are in the black, but not by enough to offset the damage done by the rest of his repertoire. Scherzer's secondary pitches -- especially his slider -- are generally more productive than this, but as Red Sox fans know (see: Buchholz, Clay), sometimes reliable pitches can desert a pitcher for long stretches.

Some of it is luck. Some of it is poor command, and there's also the issue with reliable secondary offerings. Until things even out, Scherzer might continue to underwhelm with his ERA according to run estimators like FIP -- which has him at 3.99 on the year -- but in the meantime, the Red Sox hope that tonight is just another Scherzer start with plenty of runs despite the strikeouts.

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Over the Monster Portland Sea Dogs Update: Anthony Ranaudo, Aaron Kurcz, Chris Balcom-Miller

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Anthony Ranaudo, SP

YearAgeTmLgLevERAGSIPBFWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
2012 22 Portland EL AA 7.36 3 14.2 65 1.500 5.5 1.8 8.0 6.1 0.77
2 Seasons 4.32 29 141.2 601 1.292 7.9 0.8 3.7 8.1 2.15
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/31/2012.

Ranaudo has walked more batters than he's struck out in each of his appearances in 2012, thanks to inconsistent command. He's failed to induce many grounders, either, and has already given up three homers in under 15 innings pitched. It's quite the inauspicious start for the 22-year-old right-hander.

He's a little earlier in the process than his teammates, who have been pitching since the spring without stopping due to injury. But this is still not a promising development given how much less effective he was at High-A Salem in 2011 relative to the promising start to his professional career at Single-A Greenville.

Ranaudo's command is inconsistent due to his mechanics, which seem to go out of whack often. His velocity jumps around as well, and for someone who is struggling to make his secondary stuff work as well, the inability to put an effective fastball where it needs to be causes problems. Ones like the one he's dealt with in his first three starts.

Of course, we're talking about 14-2/3 innings, and Ranaudo is in the minors to learn. Double-A is a brand new level for him, and given he didn't blow away High-A, struggles aren't surprising. That being said, Ranaudo needs to start showing consistent results in his mechanics and velocity, never mind just in his numbers, before the idea that he's a future reliever, and not a sure thing to start, leaves the minds of scouts.

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Over the Monster Goldstein's Top 30 Draft Prospects

Major League Baseball's amateur entry draft is this upcoming Monday, meaning there will be a slew of new potential Red Sox to analyze. Before then, though, it's time to look at the kinds of players the Red Sox might be acquiring.

Kevin Goldstein wrote about his top 30 draft prospects, making sure to note that this isn't a mock draft, just his thoughts on who the top 30 talents available in Monday's draft are. You'll have to read the pieces to see the full reports on all 30, but there are some things worth noting here.

  • 14 of the top 30 are pitchers. Just four of those arms are in high school, with the rest college pitchers. Four of 14 are left-handed hurlers.
  • To no one's surprise, 10 of the 16 hitters are up-the-middle players (shortstop, catcher, center field). Second base isn't represented, but that's not surprising, as it's generally failed shortstops who end up at second, anyway. These undrafted players haven't been around long enough to get to that point yet.
  • Goldstein notes that "Power is hard to find in this draft", so the few names in the top 30 who feature power worth talking about stick out. Goldstein's first-ranked, shortstop Carlos Correia. High school outfielder Courtney Hawkins. Third baseman Richie Shaffer. Third baseman Joey Gallo. This looks like a draft with plenty of good hitters, but not necessarily ones who will put up eye-popping homer numbers.
  • Gavin Cecchini, younger brother of Boston's Garin Cecchini, ranks #17. He's a shortstop who is expected to stick at the position thanks to plus defense, but he's also expected to be selected before the Boston's first pick (#24) because of the fact he's an actual shortstop.
Boston picks at #24, and again at #30, thanks to the Phillies signing Jonathan Papelbon before the new collective bargaining agreement did away with the Elias Rankings and the now old style of draft pick compensation. They also select at #37 in the sandwich round thanks to losing Papelbon, giving Boston three first-round selections, as compared to 2011's four.

In 2011, the Red Sox ended up with Matt Barnes (#19), Blake Swihart (#26), Henry Ownes (#36), and Jackie Bradley Jr. (#40). There's plenty of talent there for smart shoppers in those spots, as Boston has shown over the years. We're not quite at the mock draft stage where we know exactly who those players are going to be, but we're getting there.

We'll be covering the draft all day long on Monday, so make some time to ignore your work and see who the newest potential members of the Red Sox organization are going to be.

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Over the Monster When McDonald Returns, Time To Set Byrd Free

St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Marlon Byrd (23) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

The Red Sox acquired Marlon Byrd on April 21, in exchange for Michael Bowden and a player to be named later, who turned out to be minor-league reliever Hunter Cervenka. The Cubs picked up the tab on Byrd, leaving the Red Sox only with the major-league minimum portion of his salary, and Boston received an outfielder who could play center field in the absence of Jacoby Ellsbury and the first non-roster outfielder, Jason Repko.

Byrd has improved since coming to Boston, but he still hasn't shown much in the way of usefulness. He's hitting .274/.290/.326 in 101 plate appearances with the Red Sox, and his defense looks like it's slipped slightly as well. He can still range, but he's made some questionable plays out there, to the point where he had been somewhat buried on the outfield depth chart.

Then came more injuries, though, and Byrd was thrust back into action. Now, with Darnell McDonald set to return from the disabled list in the near future, it looks as if Byrd's time with Boston is coming to a close.

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Over the Monster YouTube: Dustin Pedroia's Torn Thumb Muscle

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Dustin Pedroia has a torn muscle in his thumb, and the Red Sox are trying to figure out if it makes more sense to rest him or play him. Pedroia wants to play -- no surprise there, given he is a baseball player and all -- but the Red Sox don't want to risk causing further damage to the injured area, or causing problems with Pedroia's future, either.

At the same time, if he can play without the risk of further harm, then there's incentive for the Red Sox to figure out a way in which they can keep him in the lineup until the torn abductor muscle heals on its own. We're not quite sure which direction the Red Sox will end up in yet, but if you'd rather watch than read about it, we've got you covered at the Over the Monster YouTube channel.

The latest video's after the jump.

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Fake Teams A.J. Burnett's Misleading 2012

PITTSBURGH, PA:  A.J. Burnett #34 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

If you look at A.J. Burnett's season to this point, there are bright spots, but also a lofty ERA. At 4.19, he's below-average by 10 percent, and if you're below the league average in the majors, you're absolutely worse than average in fantasy leagues with much smaller rosters.

As the headline suggests, though, that's a bit misleading. Burnett has struck out 8.2 batters per nine, owns a 3.3 K/BB ratio, and has quality starts in five of his seven appearances in 2012. The one major blemish on his record to this point is from his third start of the year, when he lasted just 2-2/3 innings thanks to surrendering 12 earned runs.

Now, we're not saying that game didn't happen. There it is, in his game logs, in full 12-run glory. But Burnett has given up just eight runs total in his other six starts, which would equal an ERA of 1.74. He's not likely to pitch at that level forever either, but given he's in the weak NL Central, in a park that favors pitchers, in a situation entirely different than what he dealt with in the AL East and Yankee Stadium the last few years, it's easy to believe he's going to be much better than his current ERA indicates.

Burnett has been efficient for the most part, too, a word not associated with him much during his time in New York. He's averaging just 92 pitches per start on the year (96 if you remove that 2-2/3 disaster where he threw just 72), and over six innings per start as well (just a hair under seven if you once again disregard the one awful appearance).

The reason for the constant reminders about how good he's been in his other starts is this: if you're looking around the waiver wire in a mixed league for the pitchers with the most value who are available, the one with three wins and a 4.19 ERA isn't likely to be very high unless you're in a very deep league. Throw a FAAB dollar or two at Burnett this weekend, before more time passes and additional innings help erase the damage that a start from a month ago caused. You'll be glad you did when you get to take advantage of an A.J. Burnett with context in his favor for once.

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Over the Monster Lars Anderson Breaks Pawtucket Scoreboard With Homer

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Lars Anderson isn't well-known for his power, but in the last three games he's played, he's smacked three homers. The most recent of those went so far that Anderson was featured on Sportscenter's top 10 plays. It's easy to see why, especially after it lands:

According to PawSox radio broadcaster Aaron Goldsmith, no one has ever hit the video board at McCoy Stadium before. And while it's unlikely you would bet on Lars Anderson being the one to do it, as you just saw, that's exactly what went down.

The left-handed Anderson has actually been putting up impressive numbers against right-handed pitching this year -- he's at .268/.395/.515 with five homers, 21 walks and just 23 strikeouts in 97 at-bats -- but lefties continue to confound him. He also has found the very friendly to lefties McCoy to his liking, with five of his six homers coming at home. The stadium might not dig his swing so much if he uses that to rain destruction upon it, though.

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Baseball Nation Chris Sale And The Starting Pitcher Experiment

CHICAGO, IL: Chris Sale #49 of the Chicago White Sox pitches against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

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Over the Monster Salem Red Sox Update: Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Kalish, Sean Coyle

NEW YORK: Ryan Kalish #55 of the Boston Red Sox hits a double to get team mate Yamaico Navarro #56 home against the New York Yankees during their game at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Brandon Jacobs, LF

Year Age Tm Lg Lev PA R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
2012 21 Salem CARL A+ 148 17 42 12 0 1 9 4 9 38 .307 .351 .416
4 Seasons 940 123 239 64 5 24 43 12 75 228 .285 .352 .459
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/30/2012.

Last time we peeked at Brandon Jacobs and his first season at High-A Salem, he wasn't hitting for average, drawing walks, or hitting for power. He was, however, doing fine work in his second job as a windmill, whiffing 31 percent of the time.

May has been better in some ways, but in others, he's the same Jacobs he was a month ago. He's struck out just six times in his last 10 games (40 at-bats), and just 10 times over the course of the whole month. He also hasn't started to hit for anymore power at all, and walks still aren't a thing he draws regularly, but cutting down on the swings-and-misses is a start.

Jacobs has been hampered by a contusion on his hand, and he's on the minor-league disabled list because of it. He hasn't played since May 18, and as of now (as with many minor-league injuries), there's no specific time frame for him to return. We're nearly into June, though, so he's starting to miss a decent amount of time with the injury. When he does return, one hopes he brings some of his 2011 power with him.

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Over the Monster Dustin Pedroia Has A Torn Thumb Muscle

BOSTON, MA: Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox reacts when he disagreed with an call by umpire Mark Carlson on a play at second base against  the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

What was rumored has turned out to be true, in that Dustin Pedroia has a torn abductor muscle in his thumb that could cause him to miss three weeks to a month of the season. "Could" is the operative word there, as Pedroia and the Red Sox are in the midst of figuring out if the tear is minor enough that it could be played through.

"There's some risk just like with any injury, that it could worsen. That's our job and Dustin's job to make sure that we're minimizing that risk as much as possible before gets back out there . . . so we're just trying to manage that and do the right thing for him and do the right thing for the team.''

That's general manager Ben Cherington on Pedroia, with his usual thorough demeanor. As much as everyone involved hopes that Pedroia is healthy enough to play, the best thing to do for all involved might be to sit him, even if it's just for two weeks on the 15-day disabled list. Of course, if the swelling continues to lessen and it's something he can play well with as long as it's managed, then that's tempting, too.

Pedroia hurt his thumb three weeks ago, and has scuffled somewhat during that vague time frame. In the last two weeks, he's hit all of .244/.271/.267, and doesn't have an extra-base hit in his last four games played. Of course, this could be mere coincidence, but given the debate at hand, probably not.

The Red Sox have options who could hit more than that (and still field well) in Pedroia's absence, should it come to that for a couple of weeks. Pedro Ciriaco would need to be added to the 40-man roster, but he showed off his impressive glove in the spring, and is in the midst of his most productive season in the high minors. Granted, he's 26 years old, so he should be doing just that, but for a two-week band-aid, there are worse options. Already on the roster is Nick Punto, who, for all the offensive ineptitude he's shown in limited playing time this year, is a quality defender who can draw a walk. Injured Pedroia might be able to match these guys offensively, but playing also has the potential to keep him from healing, and that's the key to the whole situation.

We'll know sooner than later what the Pedroia decision is, as the Red Sox won't want to play a man down on their roster for very long.

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Over the Monster Daniel Bard's New Old Mechanics

Boston, MA USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Daniel Bard (51) throws a pitch in the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

Walks have been an issue for Daniel Bard in 2012 as he attempts to convert from reliever to starter. Walks have been the issue, really, as entering Tuesday night's contest against the Tigers, he had handed out one more free pass than strikeout. Following his previous start against the Orioles, Bard said that his issues were mechanical, and that a lack of consistency was to blame -- it was something fixable that needed fixing.

Now, one start isn't enough to say that Bard is no longer broken, but the 5-1/3 innings he threw against Detroit were, at the least, encouraging in that regard. Before we get to what he looked like last night, though, let's see what he was doing previously.

Bard_2012_1_medium

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Over the Monster Ravech: Pedroia "Likely" To Miss A Month

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Dustin Pedroia had his MRI on his injured thumb Tuesday, and supposedly, the results aren't in yet. What we do know is that he isn't in the lineup against Justin Verlander and the Tigers. What we might know is that Pedroia is set to a miss a month:

Punto in lineup for red sox, nothing official yet but hearing Pedroia likely to miss a month
May 29 via Mobile Web Favorite Retweet Reply

None of the local beat has confirmed this rumor as of yet, but, given our little pep talk about how injuries always seem to be worst-case scenario when it comes to Boston as of late, you could be forgiven if you're now in a less pleasant state of mind than you were before clicking on this story. Just because it hasn't been repeated doesn't mean it's necessarily untrue, although the fact that Pedroia hasn't even heard yet makes you wonder where this information came from.

We'll update you when we know something for certain, whether it be good or bad news. For now, Scott Lauber and the Boston Herald:

Bobby Valentine said the injury didn't occur on the diving stop that Pedroia made in the fifth inning yesterday, a play that preceded his exit from the game. In fact, Pedroia has been coping with discomfort for about three weeks, according to Valentine. The second baseman has been using extra padding on his thumb and even changed his grip during batting practice. If anything, Valentine surmised that Pedroia may have aggravated his thumb when he was jammed on a swing earlier in the game yesterday.

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Over the Monster Tuesday Red Sox Notes: Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Roy Oswalt

BOSTON, MA:  Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox bats against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Pedroia later left the game with an injury to his left thumb. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

It's a day of the week, ergo, there are Red Sox injury updates that merit mention. Why be satisfied with just the plights of Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury, who have missed a combined 89 games, when we can add Dustin Pedroia's jammed thumb to the list of potential health-related problems plaguing Boston? The Red Sox were granted the return of Ryan Sweeney from a concussion on Monday, and the baseball gods saw fit to take Pedroia's thumb as payment for this bit of good fortune. This, of course, is the only logical explanation.

Fine, that's overreacting a whit, but given the way things have worked out with injuries for the Red Sox, not just in 2012, but in the last three years, it doesn't take much wondering to understand where that cynicism stems from. At this point, injuries are probably the lone area in which my first instinct is to think negatively, in order to cushion the eventual blow of truth that an MRI or trip to a specialist is fit to deliver, or, for the sake of being surprised and elated by the news that Dustin Pedroia's thumb remains attached to his hand, as it's meant to be.

Pedroia will sit out Tuesday night's contest against Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers while the Red Sox sort out what's wrong with his thumb. With luck, it's just jammed, and it's just in the best interests for this second baseman who has played 48 of 48 games to take this opportunity for a day off. Then again, if he is indeed healthy and ready to go Wednesday, who knows what horrors await he who BaseBa'al will target next?

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Over the Monster Greenville Drive Update: Garin Cecchini, David Renfroe, Jordan Weems

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Garin Cecchini, 3B

Year Age Tm Lg Lev PA 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
2012 21 Greenville SALL A 204 14 2 2 16 3 21 41 .303 .387 .438
2 Seasons 337 26 3 5 28 5 38 60 .301 .392 .462
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/29/2012.

Garin Cecchini was impressive during his first professional stint with Low-A Lowell in 2011, at least until injury cut his season short. The Red Sox saw enough in the 133 plate appearances he did have to promote the 21-year-old to Single-A Greenville for the 2012 season, and while a .268/.341/.341 April didn't show us much, he's made up for it in the time since.

The calendar is nearly ready to turn once more, closing the book on a month in which Cecchini has hit .333/.415/.521 with 20 strikeouts against 14 walks. Both of those figures show plate discipline and pitch recognition, (and better than he displayed in April, too) but he's been doing plenty with pitches besides watching them pass as of late. His 12 extra-base hits are twice the number he had in April, and let's not forget that he's also swiped 16 bases already, while being caught just the three times (84 percent success).

He hasn't dominated the level by any means yet, even if the last month of games was impressive. With Blake Swihart going through the arduous development of a young, switch-hitting catcher, Ceccini is likely the most exciting prospect at the level for the Red Sox right now, and he's starting to hit like that's the case.

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Over the Monster Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

Cleveland, OH, USA: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches during the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field.  Mandatory Credit: Eric P. Mull-USPRESSWIRE

The last time the Red Sox faced the Tigers, Detroit looked like an unstoppable juggernaut in basically every facet of the game. Of course, anyone can look like that in a three-game series, as it it's just enough time for a team to see everything work, and too little for any unsightly blemishes to become all you can see. Boston, on the other hand, looked very stoppable in that opening weekend series, but now, nearly two months later, the two clubs have the exact same record at 23-24.

Detroit's defense has failed them, as it was expected to from the moment it was announced that both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder would don gloves 150 times or more in 2012. (Not to mention this team also has Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Raburn, and others whose gloves are tolerated thanks to their bats.) What has also been a problem, though, is that this lineup -- one designed to mash, mash, and mash some more in between displaying a lack of range and hands of stone -- has been just league-average offensively to this point.

Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera have both been productive, but not in the way they can be (or more importantly, need to be). Alex Avila hasn't looked like the 2011 version of himself just yet, Raburn is seeing just how terrible you can be in the first half before a second-half-surge can't save your numbers, Peralta has gone back to the version of him that doesn't hit for power. Andy Dirks, as someone who has been hitting, has worked his way into the lineup, and Austin Jackson looks like he's finally breaking out. Other than that, the lineup is made of up disappointment to this point.

Game 1: Doug Fister (29-1/3 IP, 3.1 K/BB, 223 ERA+) vs. Felix Doubront (50 IP, 2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+)

Game 2: Justin Verlander (75-1/3 IP, 5.0 K/BB, 189 ERA+) vs. Daniel Bard (48 IP, 1.0 K/BB, 90 ERA+)

Game 3: Drew Smyly (48-2/3 IP, 3.1 K/BB, 130 ERA+) vs. Jon Lester (61 IP, 1.9 K/BB, 89 ERA+)

Game 4: Max Scherzer (54 IP, 3.8 K/BB, 72 ERA+) vs. Josh Beckett (56-1/3 IP, 3.0 K/BB, 101 ERA+)

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Over the Monster Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto, ON, Canada; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher David Price (14) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Rays beat the Blue Jays 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Again? Didn't they just finish playing these guys? At least this time the series is at Fenway, where rafters will not come into play.

The Rays are one game back of the first place Orioles, and 3.5 games up on Boston. This weekend represents a chance to not only get back over .500, but to close the gap in the standings a bit. If the Red Sox take two of three from the Rays, they'll be 24-23, over .500 for the first time this season, and 2.5 back of Tampa Bay. It's not a massive jump, but given the flirtations with being over .500 in the past, and the diminished present-day state of the roster, we'll take small miracles in a three-game set.

Game 1: Alex Cobb (7 IP, 3.0 K/BB, 148 ERA+) vs. Jon Lester (57 IP, 2.0 K/BB, 104 ERA+)

Game 2: David Price (59-1/3 IP, 2.9 K/BB, 125 ERA+) vs. Josh Beckett (49-1/3 IP, 2.7 K/BB, 94 ERA+)

Game 3: Jeremy Hellickson (56 IP, 2.0 K/BB, 132 ERA+) vs. Clay Buchholz (49-1/3 IP, 1.0 K/BB, 53 ERA+)

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Over the Monster Pawtucket Red Sox Update: Jose Iglesias, Ross Ohlendorf, Mark Melancon

March 26, 2012; Clearwater, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias (76) hits a single in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Networks Field.  Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Jose Iglesias, SS

YearAgeTmLgLevPA2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLG
2012 22 Pawtucket IL AAA 185 3 1 1 7 1 11 21 .268 .313 .317
3 Seasons 856 24 6 2 26 8 47 136 .262 .309 .316
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/25/2012.

On the surface, it doesn't look like there's much to update here. Iglesias still has a rather sad-looking OPS, and aside from the stolen bases, hasn't done much offensively overall. But dig a little deeper, and things start to look like they're trending in the right direction. He's striking out just 11 percent of the time. The walks are back down a bit, as they were in the past, but still at six percent. And, most importantly, Iglesias is hitting .342/.357/.430 in May.

Let's not hang a mission accomplished banner on the USS Iglesias just yet, but for someone who progress has been incremental for at best over the last year, seeing him actually hit in a month's time is worth taking a moment to appreciate.

That being said, the drop in his walk rate is a bit disconcerting, even if it's come with alongside a serious drop in his punch outs. Iglesias doesn't have enough thump to give up sitting through longer plate appearances like this, but as part of the ongoing process to develop him into a tolerable major-league hitter, it certainly beats April's 485 OPS.

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Baseball Nation What's Wrong With Ike Davis?

NEW YORK, NY: Ike Davis of the New York Mets strikes out in the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

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Fake Teams Don't Believe The Hype: Andy Pettitte, Huh? Edition

NEW YORK, NY:  Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees  pitches against the Kansas City Royals during their game at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Adam Lind is still not good at baseball, and still in the minors. Honestly, I'm amazed enough people owned Lind for him to top the most cut list two weeks in a row. Mark Ellis will be out for six weeks or so, but he's just happy to still have his leg. Jarrod Parker might not be quite ready for mixed leagues yet, so I understand your hesitation. Christian Friedrich finally got his rude welcome to the bigs, causing nearly everyone who rushed to scoop him up to drop him already. Make a decision and stick with it, folks.

As for the adds, there are a few intriguing names (and one of them, surprisingly, isn't Roy Oswalt yet).

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Over the Monster Pair of Red Sox Start Rehab Assignments

BOSTON, MA:  Darnell McDonald #54 of the Boston Red Sox connects for a home run in the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

It's still early in the season, but there already has been no shortage of players taking rehab assignments in order to work back from injuries. First it was Rich Hill and Andrew Miller, then Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kevin Youkilis, and now, after a brief stint back on the disabled list due to a trapezius strain, Dice-K is back at rehab, this time along with outfielder Darnell McDonald, recovering from an oblique strain.

Dice-K will make a start for Pawtucket on Saturday against the Toledo Mud Hens. He hasn't been consistently impressive at this level of rehab yet, giving up four homers and nine earned runs in 16-2/3 innings over four starts. It's understandable, since it's rehab, but sometimes it takes a bit more time to re-acclimate yourself after Tommy John surgery. Junichi Tazawa serves as a reminder of this -- he was hit hard, and often, at the lower levels during last season's rehab, but once he came around, he was nigh unstoppable on the mound against kids that he should (and did) overmatch.

Dice-K hasn't hit that moment yet, at least not in Pawtucket, but the Red Sox hope that sometime within his restarted 30-day rehab clock that he will. With Aaron Cook's knee still not healed, and Clay Buchholz failing to show any kind of consistency, Dice-K might end up as a necessary piece of depth, and Boston will need him ready for that.

As for Darnell McDonald, he has once again started the year out poorly, but it's mostly due to batting average. He's drawing walks over 12 percent of the time, and his Isolated Power is .178 thanks to a pair of homers and four doubles. He's hit just .179 on the season, though, as is bound to happen in just about any 65-plate appearance stretch. His .186 batting average on balls in play won't last the year, and his return would likely also mean the Red Sox have one more competent outfielder on the roster while they wait for July and the return of Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Ryan Kalish, and Cody Ross.

Boston might not need a trade deadline acquisition that month, because they're going to have an entirely new-look team without so much as lifting a finger. Whether they can hold on in the interim is another question, but successful rehab assignments from Dice-K and McDonald could help them achieve that goal.

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Over the Monster Thursday Red Sox Notes: Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Will Middlebrooks, Keith Law

Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Ryan Flaherty (3) dives back to first base safely in the second inning as Boston Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis (20) does not get the throw in time at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

Adrian Gonzalez has started the last two Red Sox games in right field, a necessity borne out of the absence of Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, and another entire outfield's worth of outfielders. He's been able to do so thanks to the return of Kevin Youkilis, who switched to his old position of first base, in order to allow rookie Will Middlebrooks to stay at third base, where he had been playing while Youkilis was on his own disabled list stint.

That was on the road, though, and in most parks on the road, right field is going to be a simpler task than Fenway's. This is why it's unlikely Gonzalez is going to play in right field often, if at all, in the upcoming series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Left field isn't an option, either, as Gonzalez's limited outfield experience is in right, and asking him to bounce around from one no-comfort zone to the next likely isn't in his best interests. Let's not forget that a switch to left would also mean Daniel Nava either needs to go to right (possibly an even worse idea than Gonzalez out there in terms of defensive capabilities), or would need to sit (given his production since his recall, this isn't an option).

This means Gonzalez will be back at first, while some combination of Scott Podsednik, Marlon Byrd, and Che-Hsuan Lin will cover center and right field duties until Sweeney returns from the 7-day DL and his concussion. As for who plays third base on these days, there's no clear answer. General manager Ben Cherington said weeks ago that Kevin Youkilis did not lose his job by getting injured, despite the production of Will Middlebrooks in his absence, meaning you would think it's Youkilis who will get the bulk of the playing time. By the same token, though, the organization doesn't want to have Middlebrooks sitting on the bench, when he could either be playing in Boston or Pawtucket full-time. This is a quandary without an obvious or satisfactory solution.

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Baseball Nation Defense A Problem, But Not Just For Detroit

Cleveland, OH, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder tosses the ball to first base against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

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Over the Monster Portland Sea Dogs Update: Bryce Brentz, Oscar Tejeda, Stolmy Pimentel

ANAHEIM, CA:  World Futures All-Star Stolmy Pimentel #45 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch during the 2010 XM All-Star Futures Game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim California.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Bryce Brentz, RF

YearAgeTmLgLevPA2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLG
2012 23 Portland EL AA 170 9 1 5 1 1 9 48 .300 .341 .463
3 Seasons 963 48 9 40 9 8 70 239 .273 .329 .484
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2012.

Bryce Brentz looked overmatched after his promotion to Double-A to begin 2012. He hit just .216/.266/.318, and had already struck out 29 times in fewer than 100 plate appearances. As awful as that stretch was, his May has been that good: in his last 10 games, Brentz is hitting .442/.467/.651 with five extra-base hits, and for the month of May, has posted a 1073 OPS, nearly doubling April's output.

It's not all sunshine and puppy dogs yet for the right-handed 23-year-old. Brentz still isn't drawing walks, and the strikeout rate just doesn't look good yet, even during his recent surge -- after striking out almost 30 percent of the time to begin the year, he's only down to 28 percent on the season now. Slight progress, perhaps, but nothing of significance given the sample involved.

Still, like Josh Reddick before him, it's good to see Brentz's plate coverage winning the day after a rough start against more advanced competition.* Triple-A isn't something we should rule out entirely, as the Red Sox might see Brentz getting complacent at the plate with his current strategy. If he keeps on slugging over .600, as he did to begin the 2011 campaign at Single-A Greenville, then there isn't much point in keeping him in one place -- if anything, he might pick up bad habits that are tough to drop. Failure will be good for Brentz, who eventually will have to stop acting as if every pitch is a hittable one -- more advanced pitchers will cause him to struggle more than just the month that the Double-A arms did if he doesn't adjust his approach to compensate for this.

*Let's keep this in mind: strikeouts weren't the issue for Reddick, who was and is able to put his bat on every good and bad idea that approaches the strike zone. Brentz isn't a clone, by any means, even if he does have promising power and a penchant for taking the bat off of his shoulder at every opportunity.

This all sounds negative, but it's just the natural path for a prospect in this particular offensive mold. Brentz has some excellent power, but he has holes in his swing and an aggressive approach that will be exploited. How he adjusts to that as he continues his climb up the ladder will determine what kind of player he's going to be in his career.

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Over the Monster Game 44: Get Back To .500, Please?

Boston attempts to win their first series against Baltimore since July of 2011 this afternoon down in Camden Yards. Today also represents the end of the dreaded 20 games in 20 days portion of the schedule, and a win today would put Boston 11-9 in that stretch. It doesn't get them to .500 on the season, but with all of the injuries they've dealt with, it's a start that's easily taken when offered.

Let's try not to talk about who is starting in center today for Boston, okay?



Hey, I said let's not talk about it. Let's instead focus on how much more appealing the rest of the lineup looks, now that Kevin Youkilis is back in it, and without the loss of Will Middlebrooks, even.


Daniel Bard

#51 / Pitcher / Boston Red Sox

6-4

215

R

R

Jun 25, 1985



W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2012 - Daniel Bard 3-5 4.85 1.55 26 25


Jake Arrieta

#34 / Pitcher / Baltimore Orioles

6-4

225

R

R

Mar 06, 1986



W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2012 - Jake Arrieta 2-4 4.72 1.21 51 13

It's not showing up in his ERA or W-L record yet, but Arrieta has possibly been Baltimore's best starter in 2012 thanks to an impressive K/BB. Bard looks more and more like someone who is in the midst of on-the-job training each time he's out, but there's a reason for that: Bard is in the midst of on-the-job training. Hopefully today Bard has the same kind of eye-opening experience that the struggling Brian Matusz had last night, when everything came together for him at once.

Away with you, vile orange-winged demon, and take your treacherous memories of the past with you. Go Sox!

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Baseball Nation Brian Matusz And A Slow Resurgence

Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Brian Matusz (17) pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

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Over the Monster Salem Red Sox Update: Drake Britton, Brandon Workman, Keith Couch

Sarasota, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox batting helmets and bats in the dugout before a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Drake Britton, SP

Year Age Tm Lg Lev ERA G IP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 23 Salem CARL A+ 7.15 8 34.0 159 1.500 8.7 1.3 4.8 8.5 1.78
5 Seasons 5.13 70 252.2 1130 1.456 8.9 0.9 4.2 8.7 2.05
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/23/2012.

Britton is still starting games (or, at least, throwing long, starter-ish outings), as the Salem Red Sox have used six starters since Matt Barnes was promoted to High-A. He's still very hit-or-miss with success, but he's finally starting to get some separation between his walk and strikeout rates, even if it's not showing up in that horrific ERA of his. In May's three starts, Britton has thrown 14-2/3 innings, struck out 19, and walked six. After allowing five homers in April, he's yet to yield a long ball this month.

It's early yet, but it looks as if most of Britton's struggles have come while pitching from the stretch. With the bases empty, he's striking out nearly a batter per inning, and has given up 13 hits in 18-1/3 frames. He's also induced nearly twice as many ground outs as air outs from the windup. With runners on, though, opponents are hitting .328, his G/F ratio drops, and while he still misses bats, four of his five homers have come in these 15-2/3 innings.

As said, it's too early to make much of this yet, but it's something to watch out for. Britton has trouble staying consistent not just in his results, but in his delivery and approach, and having different issues from the stretch than the windup wouldn't be surprising in the least. Long-term, it's this lack of consistency that leads me to believe he'll become a reliever, but if there is a problem from the stretch, that will need to be ironed out first.

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Fake Teams J.A. Happ Starting To Come Together?

Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher J.A. Happ (30) pitches in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

J.A. Happ has been a controversial pitcher during his time in the majors. He was overrated in his younger days with the Phillies, thanks to run support and three-straight (two of them partial) seasons with better-than-average batting average on balls in play, along with high strand rates. His ERA was anywhere from a run to one-and-a-half runs better than his FIP over those three years, meaning many people felt that eventually, regression would catch up to Happ.

In 2011, more than regression hit him, as his ERA skyrocketed to 5.35. Oddly enough, his FIP hadn't changed much at all, as the needle moved just one-third of a run from where it had been during his previous 250-plus innings in the bigs. You might have guessed the cause for this already: his BABIP was average, and his strand rate, so good in years past, not only returned to expected levels but turned out even worse than that.

The 2012 season has been up-and-down for him to this point, but there's plenty of reason to like what he's done. His ERA and FIP are in line for the first time ever. His 8.4 strikeouts per nine is a career-high, and his 3.5 walks per nine are the lowest they've been since he threw 166 innings with the Phillies in 2009. Maybe most importantly, he's inducing far more grounders than in the past. While he's given up more homers than you'd like him to, at 1.6 per nine, that's uncharacteristic for him, especially given he's in a less hitter-friendly park and more forgiving division now than he was in years prior.

If the homers are a bit of a fluke, the strikeouts are up, walks are down, and grounders are coming more often than ever, there's a lot to like here. Happ's last two starts resulted in 12 innings, 10 punch outs, three walks, no homers, and more balls on the ground than in the air. Because of some of the earlier struggles, this recent bout of solid pitching hasn't been reflected in his waiver rankings just yet, but given time -- if the progress is real -- then it will.

You'll want to stash him before it gets to that point, before it's too late to grab him. He's not going to win your league for you on your own, but we're talking about a 29-year-old lefty who should add to your depth -- sometimes these pitchers take some time to figure themselves out, and Happ's 2011 was shortened by injury and ineffectiveness. Without the stress of a forearm strain lingering over his 2012, he's looked much more effective.

Happ is no sure thing, but if you're looking for someone to roll the dice on, Happ's as good as almost anyone available in your league. And he is as available as can be, if CBS (12 percent of leagues) and ESPN (one percent) are anything to go by.

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Over the Monster Scott Podsednik To Boston, Cody Ross To DL Not Determined Yet

"Don't let it be broken, okay?" (Photo by Brian Garfinkel/Getty Images)

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe brings up an interesting wrinkle in the Cody Ross broken foot saga. Namely, that Ross might not end up on the disabled list at all:

Sox awaiting word from second opinion doc on fractured left foot to dtermine whether he goes on DL. Scott Podsednik here in case he does.
May 22 via Twitter for BlackBerry® Favorite Retweet Reply

If you were wondering why no official move for Scott Podsednik's call to the majors had been announced, it's because of this -- if Ross doesn't need to go on the DL, then Podsednik will be right back on a bus to Pawtucket.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves -- the second opinion won't necessarily be different than the first. But there's at least a chance we can remain in a Podsednik-free existence a little longer.

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Over the Monster Kevin Youkilis Recalled, Playing First Base

CHICAGO, IL:  Kevin Youkilis #20 of the Boston Red Sox connects on a grand slam scoring teammates David Ortiz #34, Adrian Gonzalez #28 and Ryan Sweeney #12 during the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images)

Scott Podsednik isn't the only one back in the majors as of today, as Kevin Youkilis has ended his rehab assignment with Pawtucket, and is starting at first base for the Red Sox tonight.

Podsednik, however, is not starting, as it's Adrian Gonzalez playing in right field in Baltimore, while Marlon Byrd patrols center and Daniel Nava left. This is significant, because it means Will Middlebrooks remains in the majors, and at third base.

The idea of Gonzalez in right isn't the most pleasant given he's not the most fleet-footed Red Sox around, but there are a few things to keep in mind. This isn't the everyday, permanent solution -- Gonzalez will play in right as often he's comfortable with being there. The Red Sox offense, successful but missing plenty of pieces even without the loss of Cody Ross, would have also been without Middlebrooks had the Red Sox just sent him down to Pawtucket. Youkilis is likely going to play a better defensive first base than third when he gets the opportunity, and overall, Middlebrooks and Youkilis at the corners is likely more valuable than Youkilis and Gonzalez, at least defensively.

There's also the fact that the only thing that's new in this plan is the idea that the defensive arrangement would be used against AL teams. During interleague games on the road, Gonzalez was likely to appear in right a few times anyway. The injury to Ross means it needs to happen a few more times than planned.

Basically, a lot of the misgivings come out in the wash, as far as defensive drops are concerned, and the ability to keep Middlebrooks' bat around while simultaneously hoping Youkilis has something to offer offensively is too tempting to wave away for a team starting bench outfielders and a first baseman. It's not the most optimal plan, but when you're staring at the dozenth option on the depth chart for the outfield, it's time to get creative.

As with Podsednik earlier, the corresponding moves have not been announced yet, but Youkilis is only on the 40-man -- it's likely he'll assume one of Ryan Sweeney or Ross's vacant spots on the 25-man.

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