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Minor League Injury Updates: Reese Havens Found, Jeurys Familia MIA
Reese Havens made his season debut yesterday for the St. Lucie Mets after missing most of April with a strained oblique. I'm guessing his assignment to St. Lucie is temporary and related to his rehab and the warm weather (though upstate New York probably feels about as close to Florida this weekend as it ever does) rather than the level of competition. Expect him to join the Binghamton squad in the near future. He was 1-3 with a walk.
Of course, the news wasn't all good, as Jeurys Familia missed his scheduled start for the PSL Mets in the same game. No news yet on why he was unable to appear.
Elsewhere, Fernando Martinez hit a homer in his first AB back in the Buffalo Bisons lineup after missing a handful of games with a sore back.
Update: According to Toby Hyde via Twitter, Familia has been placed on the St. Lucie 7-day DL with a left wrist burn.
Nick Evans Named Eastern League Player of the Week
The number of people wondering why Nick Evans is in Double-A > The number of people surprised he's the EL player of the week.
Ike Davis Service Time Clarification
One of the hot button issues floating around the comments section right now is the question of whether or not the Mets left Ike Davis in the minor leagues long enough to delay his service time, thus keeping him in the organization for an extra year. Just off the top of my head, I suspected that they had waited long enough, though the most easily accessible information on the subject of service time is unclear at best. So I decided to take a look at the current Collective Bargaining Agreement to get to the bottom of things. Here are the relevant passages:
Article V--Scheduling
A) Length of Season
During the term of this agreement, each club shall be scheduled to play 162 games. A championship season will not be scheduled over a period of less than 178 days or more than 183 days.
-pp 3
Article XXI--Credited Major League Service
A. Definitions
Those Player rights expressly set forth in the Basic Agreement for which a Player's eligibility is dependent upon credited Major League service will be determined as follows:
(1) One full day of Major League service will be credited for each day a player is on the Major League Club's Active List. A total of 172 days of Major League credited service will constitute one full year of credited service. A player may not receive more than one year, 172 days, in one championship season. Major League service will be computed commencing with the date of the first regularly scheduled championship season game, through and including the date of the last regularly schedule championship season game. This rule shall apply uniformly to all Players and Clubs notwithstanding differences in a particular Club's schedule.
-pp 82
B. Optional Assignments
If a Player is optionally assigned for a total of less than 20 days in one championship season, the player will be credited with Major League service time over the period of such assignment.
-pp. 82
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System Overview Part One: The Upper Minors
Buffalo Bisons (Triple-A)
| Hitters | Pos. | # |
|---|---|---|
| Outfielders | ||
| Carter, Chris | RF | 35 |
| Feliciano, Jesus | LF | 23 |
| Martinez, Fernando | LF | 8 |
| Pridie, Jason | CF | 11 |
| Infielders | ||
| Adams, Russ | 2B | 38 |
| Cervenak, Mike | 3B | 22 |
| Cintron, Alex | 2B | 12 |
| Davis, Ike | 1B | 20 |
| Green, Andy* | 3B | |
| Hessman, Mike | 3B | 27 |
| Tejada, Rubin | SS | 7 |
| Catchers | ||
| Santos, Omir | C | 10 |
| Thole, Josh | C | 15 |
| Pitchers | Thw | # |
|---|---|---|
| Acosta, Manny | R | 46 |
| Blackley, Travis | L | |
| Calero, Kiko | R | 49 |
| Dessens, Elmer | R | 31 |
| Dickey, R.A. | R | 19 |
| Egbert, Jack* | R | |
| Gee, Dillon | R | 18 |
| Livingston, Bobby | L | 47 |
| Misch, Pat | L | 48 |
| Muniz, Carlos* | R | |
| O'Connor, Michael | L | 54 |
| Parnell, Bobby | R | 39 |
| Pettyjohn, Adam | L | 26 |
*Currently on 7-Day Disabled List
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Compromising with Jerry Instead of Compromising Jenrry
I could very easily write a few thousand words on how foolish I think it is for the Mets to carry Jenrry Mejia as a reliever this year. Many others have already done so. You can read about it here, here, here, here, here, and here, and I'm sure in many other places as well. Instead of rehashing many of those ideas, I'd like to work under the assumption that Jenrry will break camp in the majors (though that's hardly written on high) and discuss a way this might actually work .
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Not a Rookie: Daniel Murphy
John Sickels profiles the Mets' projected opening day first baseman.
Good Times in Big League Camp for Top Prospects
After watching Jenrry Mejia throw these nasty pitches en route to retiring seven straight batters yesterday and watching Ike Davis hit this monstrous Home Run in the game prior, you can add Fernando Martinez to the list of Mets top prospects off to a ridiculously impressive start in this year's Grapefruit League action. After getting into three games and going 4 for 8 with a triple, Martinez made the trip to Melborne to face the Nationals today and proceeded to obliterate some baseballs, going 4 for 4 with two home runs. Both homers came off of major league pitchers (though hardly world beaters) and former Mets: the first off Shawn Estes (who did not pitch in the majors in 2009) and the second off career reliever Tyler Walker.
For those counting, this makes Fernando 8 for 12 thus far with two homers and a triple. He's also yet to either strike out or draw a walk, which while a bit strange and something to watch moving forward, is hardly worth complaining about when he's hitting this well.
Being that three of the biggest current roster questions for the Mets involve pitching, first base, and center field; Mejia, Davis, and Martinez are three guys to watch closely. Extending their hot starts into late March could earn them serious consideration as candidates to go north with the big club.
Minor League Run Environments
Fantastic article over at THT by Justin Inaz discussing the variety of run environments among the affiliated leagues. Its widely known how pitcher friendly the FSL is, and this research reflects that, as it has the lowest run environment both in terms of Base Runs and Actual Runs. The next five lowest in order are the GCL, International, NY-PA, Midwest, and Eastern Leagues. The Mets have affiliates in every one of those leagues save the Midwest. The highest run environment the Mets have an affiliate in is the Appy League, where Wilmer Flores made a name for himself. The South Atlantic League, where Wilmer spent 2009, is just about middle of the pack.
Its worth keeping all this in mind when regarding Mets prospects. Almost all of their affiliated teams play in leagues that are much more pitcher friendly than most other leagues at the same level. Hitters in the system are much more likely to get undervalued and pitchers much more likely to get overvalued.
Rydin' Ruff in the Buffalo....Rotation?
According to minor league Field Coordinator Terry Collins (via Adam Rubin), the Mets are considering converting Eddie Kunz to a starting pitcher. This idea may seem a bit off the wall considering how badly Kunz has struggled in relief in Triple-A, but really, what does the organization (or Kunz for that matter) have to lose at this point? He'll certainly get more reps in this way, and maybe he'll find a second or third pitch that works. Despite his struggles, his GB% has always been excellent, at 60.8% in 2009 and 65.7% for his minor league career. The problem is a lack of separation between his walk and strikeout totals, as he struck out just 38 while walking 31 in 62.3 innings last year. The only major downside is that fans will get less DMX late in games at Coca-Cola Field in 2010.
Ike Davis Live Chat Tomorrow at Baseball America
Tomorrow, February 23rd, Baseball America's Top 100 prospect will be unleashed for public consumption. To celebrate, all day they'll be holding chats with a variety of ranked prospects, including the Mets own Ike Davis. To drop in on the chat with Davis, head over to Baseball America at 5:00 pm ET. They'll also be holding chats with Astros catcher Jason Castro (4:00 pm), White Sox outfielder Jared Mitchell (4:30 pm), and Nationals RHP Drew Storen (7:00 pm). You can find the rest of the chats here.
Carlos Delgado Undergoes Second Hip Surgery
Just imagine if the team had signed him and this came out. Delgado is expected to miss about four months, though he still intends to play this year once he returns.
Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects
Keith Law of ESPN.com has recently posted his Top 100 prospects. Its always fun to see everyone's take on the Top 100 prospects, but the three most widely accepted public lists always come from Law, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. All three have paywalls if you want to read the details, but make the full lists public.
Michael Diaz breaks down the Mets entries over at Mets Minor League Blog and gives us a taste of what Law has to say. There are four Mets appearing on the list: Jenrry Mejia (#23), Wilmer Flores (#41), Ike Davis (#64), and Fernando Martinez (#73).
Law also recently ranked each organization's farm system, with the Mets coming dead smack in the middle at #15. He also gave a Top 10 for each organization. Here's what he has for the Mets:
- Jenrry Mejia
- Wilmer Flores
- Ike Davis
- Fernando Martinez
- Brad Holt
- Jon Niese
- Josh Thole
- Reese Havens
- Jefry Marte
- Juan Urbina
Jon Niese Throws From Mound, Expects to Be Ready Opening Day
As per a pair of tweets from Ken Davidoff. Having Niese healthy and miraculously getting Nelson Figueroa through waivers again to start the season would give the Mets Bisons one of the best 1-2 combos in Triple-A. That might not sound like much, but its the kind of depth that would make signing a little-talent, high-durability guy like Jon Garland pretty superfluous.
Captain Kirk's Glove
One of the more controversial prospects in the Mets system is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. For those of you unfamiliar with Nieuwenhuis, he's a Center Fielder out of Azusa Pacific University, a small NAIA school. Despite the low level of amateur competition, Nieuwenhuis's toolsy profile made him intriguing enough for the Mets to draft him 100th overall in the 2008 amateur draft. He made his debut that year for Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets Short Season-A affiliate, and managed a respectable .329 wOBA. Moving up to the Hi-A Florida State League in 2009, one of the most pitcher friendly leagues in the minors, Nieuwenhuis broke out in a big way with a .359 wOBA (actually .374 according to his statcorner page, but since they don't have data for his 2008 season, I'm crunching the numbers myself using the method described by The Book) on the season and a torrid .396 wOBA from the beginning of July through his late season promotion to Double-A Binghamton.
Though many consider Nieuwenhuis one of the better prospects in the Mets system, he was nowhere to be found on Baseball America's Top 10 Mets Prospects list this year. To make things even more confusing, BA also named him the best defensive outfielder in the system. Considering his offensive breakout, one would think that superior defense would earn him a Top-10 spot for sure. Not so fast though, Sean Smith's TotalZone ratings--the most advanced defensive metric we have for minor leaguers--had Nieuwenhuis pegged at -12 in 106 games, which is pretty awful. So what gives? Is Nieuwenhuis a superior defender as suggested by BA, despite his omission from their Top 10 list? Or his he inferior, as suggested by his TotalZone?
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Mets Top Prospects: #20 Dillon Gee
Back by popular demand, Sam and Mark's (but not James's) top prospect list. Clocking in at #20, Dillon Gee. For those of you new to the show, here's how the countdown has gone so far:
What Have We Learned? A Brief History of a Non-Dynasty, Part 1
First things first, allow me to (re)introduce myself. Many of you, grizzled Amazin' Avenue vets that may be, are probably thinking "Who the hell is Mark Himmelstein?" Well, Mark Himmelstein is me, formerly known around these parts as Meddler. Eric Simon and co. have been generous enough to have me join the site's wonderful team of writers. I'm honored, and look forward to lamenting, and maybe one day even celebrating (please?), with the greatest community of Mets fans there is.
Just three short years ago, if you asked a Mets fan how they thought this team would be remembered once the decade was over, you probably would have heard words like "accomplishment," "chemistry," "dominance," and even "championship," without a hint of irony. After a 2006 season that included 97 wins and a trip to the NLCS, it was a success that seemed destined to go on forever. It didn't. And though for the next two seasons the team would continue to be better than most Major League Baseball teams, they would stay closer to the average than to the elite. This relative mediocrity made the process feel more like a tease than the triumph that was expected, despite the relative level of success. Now, after a 2009 season lost to plenty of bad luck and at least as many bad decisions, there aren't many straws left to grasp at. What went so wrong? Everything seemed to be lined up so nicely for a sustained run at success, even a shot at a dynasty. Two of the best young players in the game had just shot up through the farm system and the organization had the financial resources to match any other non-Yankee club in the league. Looking back on the events of the last half-decade, things clearly have not worked out as hoped.
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The Molina Gambit
(bumped from fanposts. --eric)
The current market for catchers is moving about as fast as Bengie Molina trying to score from third on a medium-deep fly ball. According to the parenthetical reference in this article by SI's John Heyman, "word is" Molina is in search of a three year $20 million deal. The only team known to be connected to Molina in any significant way so far is the Mets. However, according to many sources, including Heyman, the two sides are far apart in negotiations. John Paul Morosi agrees as well, and even goes on to speculate that the entire remaining market for catchers is waiting to see where Molina lands before making their own decisions, specifically mentioning Rod Barajas, Yorvit Torrealba, and Jose Molina.
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Outfielder Valuation and Mike Cameron
With all the talk of Jason Bay floating around, and specifically comparing him to Mike Cameron, I thought now would be a good time to discuss methods of outfielder valuation. When we talk about valuing players, we often talk about positional adjustments, which per 150 games are typically interpreted in this way:
C: +12.5 runs
SS: +7.5
2B/3B/CF: +2.5
RF/LF: -7.5
1B: -12.5
DH: -17.5
Regarding the infield, this is particularly important, since different skillsets are required to defense different infield positions. Because of this, we can interpret the values of different infielders at different positions as fixed to the position they play. Even if their offensive value remains the same at a different position, their value relative to the defensive average will vary widely from position to position in completely different ways for different players, depending on what defensive skills they have. Long wingspan and quick reactions will play well at first base and third base. A strong arm will play well at third base and shortstop. First step quickness and ability to stay low to the ground will play well at shortstop and second base. The ability to take hard slides will play better at second base. Moving a quality defensive Shortstop to first base, you wouldn't likely get enough extra defensive production to make up for the difference in the baseline positional values, and the same is true vice versa.
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Chapman to Throw Next Week, Mets to Watch
There's some buzz now that despite the $60 million pricetag that was floated around earlier this offseason, Chapman may get less than $20 million. If this is the case, he could very well become one of the better high-risk fits for a team like the Mets. The problem presented with matching up a different high risk guy, say Sheets or Bedard, with a lower upside "innings eater," is that it forces someone, most likely John Maine, out of the rotation right away. Then if they did get hurt, Jon Niese and Nelson Figueroa would essentially be the only replacement options. With Chapman, who would be in his first year of service time, he could be out-righted to the minors after the spring if he didn't look quite polished enough yet. Maine could keep his spot warm, and Niese and Chapman could essentially compete in Triple-A to be the guy who forces Maine to the pen eventually.
Yanks, D'Backs, Tigers Three-Way is Close
According to multiple sources. The Yankees would receive Curtis Granderson, the D'Backs Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers would get Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth. I'm personally hoping this deal goes through, so we can stop hearing about how "great" Austin Jackson is from Yankee Fans.
Bob Melvin Brought into the Fold
According to Joel Sherman, he's been hired as a Major League scout. Just one more manager waiting in the weeds for Jerry to let Pedro Feliciano pitch to Matt Diaz again.
Project Prospect Rankings By Position
Projectprospect.com has been running a series on the top prospects in the minors for each position, going 15 deep at each position and 30 deep for pitchers. The Project Prospect philosophy is more about giving credit for high floors than some other big prospect pundit, though upside is still obviously considered. Here are the Mets farmies who appear in the rankings (rank on respective list in parenthesis):
John Niese, P (16)
Jenrry Mejia, P (18)
Fernando Martinez, CF (3)
Ruben Tejada, SS (13)
Reese Havens, 2B (5)
Ike Davis, 1B (7)
The Mets had no ranked players on the Catcher, Third Base, or Corner Outfield lists.
Rays Closing in on Shoppach
How come whenever we all agree on an idea here at AA, it seems like the Red Sox or Rays are the ones to pull the trigger on it?
The Inevitable, Alex Cora Close to Resigning
Apparently he's getting his $2 million, once again guaranteed, this time with some type of vesting option.
Josh Thole: Too Good for the Venezuelan Winter League
After going 2 for 4 with his third HR of the season, in 37 games, Thole is now hitting .392 / .493 / .584. He leads the league in AVG, OBP, OPS, and doubles, and has a crazy 24/13 BB/K. He's sixth in walks, and his 3 HR are more than he's hit in any stateside professional season save his 2008 in the FSL. He's also among the league leaders with 17 total XBH. He's essentially the Joe Mauer of the VWL.
Free Mock Draft Site - Couch Managers
For those of us who go a little stir crazy in the baseball offseason, Mock Drafts are a good way to pass the time until, at the very least, the Fantasy Draft season starts. Mock Draft Central is the most commonly known resource for Mock drafting, especially this early in the year, but non-premium users are limited to one per day, and even for premium users, they're only running two drafts each day anyway. Couch Managers appears to be completely free, but no one uses it, so I figured I'd pimp it out a bit and see if I could get some traffic over there so I'm not just competing with 9 auto-draft slots.
White Sox Sign Andruw Jones
Reportedly just a $500k base salary with just $1 million in incentives. Can you say missed opportunity?
Rule 5: The Other Draft (Updated 11/25)
Finishing with a terrible record in 2009 affords the Mets a few luxuries, the most obvious being that they will have the seventh overall pick in this year's Amateur Draft. However, also worth paying attention to, they will receive the same selection in this winter's Rule 5 Draft. Though the Rule 5 draft is essentially a swap meet of replacement level players, gems like Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton and Dan Uggla do occasionally emerge from its depths, especially in the first few picks. With that, here are a few interesting names who are eligible and have been left off their respective club's 40-man rosters:
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Fernando Martinez Sighting
He's back in action for his DWL team, the Leones de Escogido. One can only assume he's fully recovered from the torn meniscus suffered earlier this year. Lets hope he can keep himself healthy this time.
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