
Mark Kieffer
Oct 22, 2008 May 14, 2012 808 3329
Opinionated Cyclone and General Sports Fan
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Who's Excited For Fantasy Baseball?
I wanted to see who out there is pumped up for some fantasy baseball this season? To be honest, this is the first season in the last few years that I have been really excited? Why? Because 1) I changed jobs which will allow for me to have the summer off from working and 2) because I am going to try out Scoresheet Fantasy Baseball for the first time this year.
I am only 28 years old, but have been playing fantasy baseball since I was 12. I played online and faked my age and used my parents credit card info, and I have been playing annually for the last 15 years or so. When you do something over a long period of time, you experience the ups and downs. As a kid, I thought fantasy baseball was fun because it was all about the stats kids know and are familiar with. I remember having arguments with kids about who was a better baseball player based soley on career HRs, which is silly in retrospect but logical as a kid.
Where I have grown frustrated with fantasy baseball is that the stats do not tell the entire picture. I play fantasy sports because I want to prove to my friends (or to random people online) that I am the most knowledgeable sports fan they know, and fully qualified to be a real life baseball GM.... Well, maybe not that far, but we all have to have dreams.
I decided to try Scoresheet this year because I liked the aspect of factoring many different aspects of a player to use in a simulated game, as opposed to just compiling arbitrary stats. My AL-only league started its online draft today (it's something like 1 pick per team per day for the next 35 days or so), and my NL-only league starts it up this weekend. I've got the baseball juices going, and am excited to give it a shot of trying to build a complete team and seeing if my philosophies about baseball ring true, or are crazy.
I know it's early, but this is the most excited I have been about fantasy baseball in years, and here's to a great 2012. If the Mayans are correct, it might be the last time we are playing fantasy baseball anyhow. Gotta make the most of it!
Fan Report From First Ever Nuggets Game At The Can On V Day
Being originally from Minneapolis, I have been to NBA games before. I have lived in Colorado for 9 months now, and have had a chance to make it to the Pepsi Center for a game. My wife for Valentine's Day decided to brought me via Groupon tickets to the game against the Suns and we went for the first time. Below are some quick thoughts about the game experience:
1. Parking (A) -> I was pleasantly surprised how easy finding a parking spot was, and how reasonable the parking prices were. I have been to NBA cities where the $10 parking I paid for, would have been $20 or $30. I could have parked somewhere else not too far away for cheaper, but was hurrying to get to the game on time.
2. The Game (B) -> The game was entertaining, and really that's the most important element of going to a professional sporting event. With Gallo and Nene out, I was worried about the product that I would see on the court. There was some sloppy play at times, and some solid play at times. Crowd favorites Birdman and Rudy Fernandez did not disappoint, so that was pretty fun. As a general NBA fan, I am a little dissapointed that Nash and Hill both got the day off. While I am in favor of a shorter NBA season (60 games), it does stink that the nature of the schedule has been causing injuries, and some of the big players to take days off. I haven't had the chance to see Nash live and was looking forward to seeing him play. To me, expectations were low with having 4 of the best players between both teams out, but the game exceeded those low expectations which was nice.
3. The Pepsi Center (C-) -> For how new the Pepsi Center is, it is a disappointing arena in a couple of ways: the food, and the technology. This arena feels like it was built in the 1990s in some ways.
My thoughts on the food situation: I went to the game on Valentine's Day and because of some factors, my wife and I didn't have enough time to eat anything before the game if we wanted to make tipoff (interestingly, most fans did not follow our cue, and the building was more full in the 3rd Quarter than it was in the 1st). There just isn't much of a food selection, and the food is really unhealthy. I am not a health nut, but I have seen better options at NBA games, and have experienced better options at Rockies and Broncos games.
I usually laugh at people when they complain about the overall experience at a game and mention the food. The old me, the me that went to 20+ baseball games, 1-2 NFL games, 20+ basketball games, etc., would NEVER eat at the game. Too expensive, not enough choices, and dumb, dumb, dumb. Well, I finally got into a situation where I wanted to eat dinner at the game, and Nachos was my best bet.... They were monster nachos, so I guess it had that going for it.
One last criticism of the Pepsi Center beyond the food: the scoreboards and video boards. The video board was all pixely, and the promotions screen above it was straight out of 1980s, because the Metrodome had similar graphics. The technology needs an upgrade in my opinion in the building.
I sat in the nosebleeds, and they were pretty good seats, on top of the action as opposed to feeling pushed back. I see these seats on slower nights go for pretty cheap on Stubhub, Flashseats, etc., and I wouldn't hesitate to sit there again. I think the Pepsi Center is better than the Target Center by a longshot, but for a building built less than a decade ago, I would have thought it would be more up to today's standards.
Overall Experience: (B) -> I am giving my trip a B overall. The team was fun to watch (which is why I was going to the game in the first place), the parking was easy, and although the atmosphere was just so-so, I think it was pretty good for a weeknight, against a bad team, and on a night were everybody and their mom typically do something other than going to a sports game. I am going to check out the game against the T-Wolves on the 20th, and hope to get to a game against a bigger team like the Thunder to see a more live atmosphere.
NBA Eve: It's Time To Get Fired Up
The NBA is filled with bad press. It has all been a PR nightmare from getting trades vetoed, to Snoop Dogg's twitter blowing up calling Pau Gasol a wuss (to put it nicely), to suddenly having ESPN make you feel like this NBA season is headed towards a Clippers - Knicks NBA finals (even though both teams will be middle seeded at best playoff teams).
I feel it, trust me I do. But you want to know the deal? In just 2 days you have your Denver Nuggets taking the court in Dallas. It doesn't matter what people say, because Ty Lawson is going to continue to be one of the most underrated PG's in the league. It doesn't matter what people say because Nene is going to be slamming night in and night out no matter how much dancing the Clippers are doing, or how much shit Snoop Dogg is posting about the Lakers on his Twitter feed. It doesn't matter how many points Carmello scores in the Garden, because Gallinari is going to make it rain in the Pepsi Center all winter long. It doesn't matter how many stars some of those other teams have, or what team the media is focusing on nationally because Denver you've got a talented team taking the floor.
I am in my 7th month of living in Colorado, after being raised in Minneapolis and living the last 8 years in Iowa. I have no reason to be a Nuggets fan really (and really the Nuggets won't surpass my T-Wolves) other than the fact I live here now, and I'm fired up. George Karl is a genius, the Nuggets are incredibly underrated, and I expect to see some solid team basketball. I get the Nuggets don't really have a star player, and it's a star driven league, but basketball itself is a team sport. Do I think Denver can win a championship? No. But can they have a hell of a season that's entertaining for all of us basketball fans? Heck yes!
I'm excited to spend some time this season watching the Nuggets, and am looking forward in participating in the chatter here. Here's to a great 2011-12 season. I'm fired up! Who else is with me?!
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Oklahoma 26, Iowa State 6: A Quick Monday Breakdown
If I were to sum up the game in one sentence, it would be that the defense did its job and the offense did not on Saturday. To be honest, I was a bit surprised the defense did as well as it did. Typically with Iowa State, we see something good happen only to be followed up by something much worse. After beating the #2 team, one might have expected not only a blowout, but some season ending injuries and rumors that Paul Rhoads would be leaving the program.... If your expectation was similar to that, Saturday wasn't such a bad day.
The weather may have been a factor as it was a windy game, but the Cyclones were able to pick off a future NFL draft pick twice, and force 4 turnovers against a pretty solid team.
I was fully expecting a letdown game, and really we only got about 1/2 or 2/3 of a letdown game in this one. There were just too many careless turnovers in this one to have a chance to win. If the defense hadn't played well, this game would have turned out like the Texas game.
The best moment in the game was Jake Knott intercepting Bell in the endzone to hold off OU putting the nail in the coffin to the Cyclones. It was at this moment that I thought might be a turning point in the game, for the Cyclones to make things interesting.
The most disappointing moment in the game was in the 3rd quarter with about 5:00 left. Iowa State was driving, down 23-6 at the time, and came to a 4th and 3 at the Oklahoma 46. I was really hoping that the Cyclones would go for it, but they opted to punt instead. Any of the 4 turnovers are good candidates for disappointing moments, but the reason why this moment took the cake was because Rhoads was throwing in the towel, and it was too bad.
Teams do not get a lot of opportunities to force 4 turnovers in Norman in a relativley dead atmosphere. The Cyclones squandered chances, but it really was not as bad as I had expected. Remember, this is very similar to the team that beat the Cyclones 52-0 last year. This year, the team looked like it belonged on the field, despite not being as good as the Sooners. Hopefully the offense can regroup for Saturday against Kansas State. For those that do not know, I have a strong dislike for Kansas State and would love to see them go down against the Cyclones. I also think the Cyclones will match up well with the Wildcats, making for another fun game.
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Iowa State - Oklahoma State Monday Recap
What a weekend! What else can I say? The benefits of this win are clear; I don't have any new twist you haven't heard, and I can't really add anything to the discussion that hasn't been said. All I can add is how I experienced this win, and what it meant to me.
Being an Iowa State fan yields a lot of crap. We all know that, and I have an example of what I''m talking about. I live in Denver, Colorado, and I got crap here for being an Iowa State fan from Iowa fans. Labor Day weekend, I was wearing an ISU shirt and walking around downtown Denver. I then hear some guy start yelling "GO HAWKS" and I turn and see his jeep with Iowa flags on it. I was like "damn". No matter where I am, I can't shake some obnoxious Hawkeye fans.
With all of the different things going on with conferences, I was worried as well. I was worried we'd be relegated into a smaller conference, that the football program and basketball programs would go down, and that the lack of money would kill the volleyball, wrestling, and other non-revenue programs that have a following here.
I have just been plain tired of it. Tired of the crap, tired of bad things happening, tired of not wanting to wear my Iowa State gear, tired of seeing us get worked by teams like Baylor and Missouri, tired in general.
Then something like Friday night happens. It was something to remember. I could go in depth on why Oklahoma State can't defend the zone-read, why the bubble screens were working well, or why Oklahoma State got all conservative at times, but it doesn't really matter. This is all bigger than that.
What matters is the fact that the team is going to a bowl game for the 11th time in school history. What matters is that our fanbase got to taste something they have never gotten to before. I watch college football all the time and would see everybody go all crazy for getting an epic win. I always wondered if it would happen with our team, and quite honestly, I didn't think it ever would. I was wrong and I am glad for it.
I will never forget being on the phone with my wife (she was watching the game somewhere else), and watching Woody run in for that winning score. I screamed so loud on the phone, and was so pumped that I hung up on her.... And similar to what most people would do during a time of extreme excitement, I was uncharacteristic of myself: I was quiet.
I'm a big talker, I talk a big game, never shut up, always have something to say, and always have an opinion. What I saw on Friday night silenced me for a good 10-15 minutes. It was crazy.
I'm critical, skeptical, and I don't drink any kool-aid. But I am a fan of this program. I love this team. Love to me means staying up late because you are all jacked up. Love is re-watching the game on the ESPN replay. Love is rocking the same Iowa State T-Shirt for 2 days straight because you are so excited about what happened.
This is the best season of Iowa State football in school history, and even though saying that for most programs would mean going to a BCS bowl or playing for a national championship, I'm still pretty dang happy. Anytime you can beat your instate rivals, beat a ranked team on the road, and come back from 17 down to beat the #2 ranked team in the nation, it's hard to complain about the season. I think I am going to ride this high all the way through next season... Maybe for the rest of my life.... I hope there are more moments like this, but I want to get all of my excitement in, in case it's a once-in-a-lifetime type of an event
With those pesky Hawk fans, I gotta give it up for them as well. They gave props, and did not ruin the moment for us fans.
A win like this might start giving me that optimism that so many of my fellow Iowa State fans have. It will start making me believe that on Any Given Saturday (or Friday night), that our team can win..... I think.
Can A Win Be Ugly? A Recap of Iowa State's 13-10 Win Over Kansas
Something that I do enjoy about watching games on TV is also keeping up with Twitter. I follow many former players, along with media personalities that cover Iowa State, and of course many fellow Iowa State fans. As I'm watching the game on TV, I am thinking to myself "man this is boring, and I hope we don't find a way to lose this game". When the game ended, many people said the win was ugly. Others said that there's so such thing as an ugly win.
What say you?
On one hand, we have a program that has averaged about 4 wins/year over the 119+ years of Iowa State football. We aren't really in a place where we can complain about wins, especially a win that puts us over par with our history as we get to win #5.
On the other hand, we played against the 112th Sagarin-rated team at home, put up only 13 points, and was in a fight that was very much up for grabs (for reference, we are rated 64th). As a self-respecting football fan, we expect a better performance at home against a crappy team don't we?
I guess my conclusion is that the situation is whatever you make it to be. If you are pumped about the win, and you don't care how it looked, more power to you. If you are glad we won but kind of disgusted in some ways, I empathize with you as well. Different strokes, different folks.
Moving beyond the big picture, there are a few things that I did like about the game. I liked how we put up over 250 yards on the ground and averaged 4.9 yards/carry (if you removed the fake punt). Speaking of the fake punt, it was a great call, even though it did not lead to any points. I also liked how guys like Albert Gary (5 receptions, 57 yards) and Jarvis West (3 receptions, 35 yards) stepped up in the place of the suspended Darius Reynolds, as football is the ultimate team sport. Even more, I liked how our defense stepped up in the 2nd half; Kansas put up over 150 yards rushing in the first half, but only rushed for 24 yards in the second half.
The big puzzler for me, is why we had Barnett drop back 30 times? I still feel like we get too pass-happy at times, and we really don't need to. I get you have to keep the defense honest, and really Barnett was the most effective runner this game (Jeff Woody got most of his yards in clean-up time).
Nevertheless, the Cyclones are now one upset away from bowl eligibility, as they head into the bye, before taking on Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, and @Kansas State. The best news about this schedule is that there are no more games on FCS with crappy announcers (although I am not certain if there are any "good" announcers anymore). Do the Cyclones have another upset in them this season?
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Iowa State Restores Honor Beating Texas Tech 41-7
The 3 weeks prior to Texas A&M have been an embarrassment for Iowa State if you ask me. Everybody talking about how this is the best team in the Paul Rhoads era, and the defense plays like ass while the offense is turning the ball over like it's their job. I was tired of it, and was almost ready to cash it in on the football season.
Well, sort of. After Rhoads made the switch to Barnett the team did start playing better. I am not sure if the team responded like "oh wow anybody can lose their job if they suck", or what really happened to be honest. The team came out and just lost. They didn't get kicked in the junk, but straight up got beat by a better team.
And then some Paul Rhoads coaching type of stuff happened this week. The Cyclones traveled to Lubbock to take on a ranked team, and the Cyclones did what they have done each of the previous years Rhoads has been here, which was winning a game on the road nobody expected them to do.
While I will always take a win, the great thing about this one is that it gives us fans something to continue to watch for. The team needs to beat Kansas and pull off 1 more upset to go to a bowl game. Not highly likely, but had this team lost, we'd be looking at the team needing to pull off 2 upsets and Kansas to go. I've got something to watch over the next 4 weeks, and am excited about the end of the season.
The Breakdown: Missouri: A LOT, Iowa State: A LITTLE
Saturday afternoon was rough. There were video feed issues up until a few minutes before kickoff, and I thought for the 2nd time this year I would have given Iowa State money to NOT see a game. The good news is that I was able to see what resembled a game. It was hard to tell because there were a lot of pixels and a lot of crappy play.
The game was really over before it got started. Mizzou took the opening kick to the 50 yard line, and I just had that feeling we were going to get rolled. It is really tough to rehash everything that happened because it's so painful to think about as a fan... And this is coming from a guy who has watched the game 3 times now.
If I were to come up with a simple way to recap the game it would be this: Missouri put on a fine blocking display. Missouri was masterful is using the opponent's momentum to drive them out of the play. If a guy wants to cut left, you push him left so dang hard that he goes out of the play. Lattimer was especially noticeable as he got schooled on that all afternoon. Additionally, the 4-5 WRs Mizzou would line up did an excellent job sealing off the secondary, allowing for large gains on the ground.
None of this is too surprising to me as Missouri is typically a very sound blocking team.
Based on the blocking alone, I would have figured Mizzou would have won the game. What really made this a blowout was the defense's bad tackling, and the offense's inconsistency.
Baylor 49, Iowa State 26: The Breakdown
Emotions were running really high for me on Saturday night. ISU started the game off better than they have any all year (great opening drive, forced 2 TOs on D), my FSN video feed went out for 40 minutes resulting in me watching a crappy internet feed + latin music on my TV. The video eventually came back, and it all went downhill going forward.
There are a slew of reasons why fans would say the Cyclones ended up losing: the turnover margin was a push, the turnover scoring margin was -7, the team committed too many costly penalties, the refs screwed the team over (if you've read me you know I HATE this excuse), etc., etc., etc.
I am going to point out 1 statistic that really sums it all up: 1st down success rate.
A play is considered a successful one on 1st down if it results in 4 yards or more. If you can have a high success rate, it creates more opportunities for short yardage situations on 3rd down, which results in more 3rd down conversions, continued drives, more points, etc.
With the exception of garbage time, Baylor had 46 1st downs. On those 46 1st downs, 30 plays were 4 yards or more, having a success rate of 65% or so (50% is considered good). ISU on the flip side, had 27 1st downs, and 12 successful plays (44%). The Iowa State defense just got eaten alive on first downs for the most part, most of which happened in the running game.
Iowa State committed to limiting the damage RGIII could inflict, and did so at the expense of leaving a ton of space up the gut. Baylor would routinely spread the offense, clearing up the middle. The Baylor O-Line would dominate our D-Line, leaving Knott on an island to either try to tackle the RB coming full speed, or having to come off a 2nd level block to make the tackle. When Givens and Washington are in the Top 5 in tackles for a game, it isn't a good sign.
Probably the most disappointing part about the game for me was not the officiating, or even the lack of defense (even though it was annoying me). It was the fact that Baylor was clearly weak against the run and we ran the ball only 33 times out of the 68 offensive plays they ran. If you throw out the 5 times Jantz was sacked, and the 5 times or so the play broke down and Jantz ran, the play calling was probably more like 23 runs vs. 45 pass calls. I understand Iowa State was down and needed to pass, but it wasn't a 2 possession game until 10:00 left in the 3rd quarter, and it was about to become a 1 possession game with 8:00 left in the 3rd had the Jantz fumble not happened.
Going forward, the team needs to play better. There are still too many penalties, not enough QB protection, and too many battles lost in the trenches on defense.
It doesn't get any easier as the Cyclones face Mizzou next. Mizzou may be 2-3, but they are a better team than their record indicates. To make matters worse, Mizzou opted out of having the game on FCS, so the game is set to a 1 PM CDT kick with NO TV. For those of you able to make the trip to Columbia, enjoy your time in SEC country.
Recap of The Iowa State and Texas Game: Getting Exposed
If I had to choose a way to describe the game from Saturday, I would call it a case of getting exposed for Iowa State. Heading into this week there were two schools of thought here for Iowa State: Fools Gold/Lucky As Hell OR Better Than Most Expected.
I outlined the issues of turnovers and offensive line play. I feel like I've beaten a horse to death, and we're only a third of the way through the season. And excuse me for a moment but I will continue to beat a dead horse:
THIS TEAM IS CREEPING UP TO LAST YEAR'S TURNOVER TOTAL: 13 turnovers through 4 games vs. 17 turnovers through 12 games. This time it wasn't all Jantz but you have to take care of the football. You can't spot a talented team 13 points in Q1 and expect to win the game. If you throw in the blocked punt (which is almost like a turnover), and you have just accounted for 20 of Texas' points.
THE O-LINE HAS ISSUES: Yes there are injuries, but you know what? Next man up. You can't sit there and average only 3.4 yards/carry while allowing 4 sacks. That is not going to get it done in the Big 12. The backups are guys who are getting scholarship money to play on a Big 12 team. Earn that scholarship.
It's funny. If you sit and look at the stats, the yardage is similar, ISU committed less penalties, the 3rd down conversion rates were similar, but you really have to look at what the game of football is about: it is about taking care of the football, protecting the QB, providing lanes for the running backs, and putting pressure on the QB. In those phase of the game, Texas did much a better job, and it's no surprise that they won.
I personally don't know how to feel. On one hand, I was really hoping that this team would get it together during the bye week, and really shock the world. Gameday did a thing on Paul Rhoads, the crowd at Iowa State was ready for something special to happen; heck Desmond Howard was ready for something special to happen, and it was a let down. This was one of those games where fans are created. It isn't often when the spotlight is on Iowa State in Ames, and when the opportunity game, the team did not take advantage.If you aren't going to win the game, at least show that you are ready to play!
On the other hand, Iowa State was playing with fire the last few weeks and finally got burned by finally playing a team that was better than them.
I know Iowa State isn't ever going to have better personnel than the Oklahoma's and Texas' of the world. The way a program like Iowa State competes with the "Big Boys" is by being smart and disciplined. Right now we aren't seeing a smart and disciplined team. We are seeing a team that needs some focus to reach their true potential, and has barely managed to skate by inferior teams on ability alone. It's the Big 12 season,and last I checked, the next 8 games aren't all against Kansas. It's time for this team to man-up or it's going to be a LONG rest of the way.
My Questions Heading Into Spring Training
Hey all, I'm just going through all of the twins-related news from this offseason, and it has generated some questions, especially now that we've seen a lot of the free agent movement this offseason. Just some questions I have about the team. These are rhetorical I suppose, but I also would be interested in hearing other people's takes on these as well. Just penning my thoughts heading into the spring training, based on what we know now:
1. The team was desperate for bullpen help last year, so letting free agents Guerrier, Fuentes, and Rauch go, makes perfect sense, right? I know Capps is good, and Nathan and Neshek are going to try to make it back, but is that something we can count on? We are spending $7 mil on Capps, $11 mil on Nathan, but can't fork out $4 mil on Guerrier or $3 mil on Rauch? Why? For a team who's clear weak spot was getting through those middle innings, it really baffles me they didn't at least sign one of those guys. We're willing to pay a marginal starter in Pavano $8 mil a year, but not be willing to get some bullpen help for half that amount.
2. Will this be Cuddyer's last year as a Twin? He's in the last year of his contract, and his best days are likely behind him, as he's going to be 32 next month. He just doesn't put up $10 mil/year kind of numbers and the Twins have no shortage of OF prospects. Cuddy's one of my all-time favorite Twins, and if he was willing to end his career as a Twin with a significant paycut, then I'd be for it. In a perfect world, I'd like to see Young gone, as he is coming off his best year, is still young, and (in my opinion) overrated. But Young will likely be here to stay for a bit, as he has two arbitration eligible years and will be significantly cheaper than other options.
3. Is there anybody else skeptical about Nishioka? It seems like every year or two, there is a guy from Japan that some MLB team hopes can produce like Ichiro. Over the years, we have found there to be only 1 Ichiro. I hope he turns out to be good, but when I look at other international flame-outs, along with the fact this guy is only 26 and has had a career filled with injuries, I get worried. I hope he works out and am looking forward to seeing him play, however.
I Hoping Some Of Ya'll Can Clear The Air A Bit
Alright, so here's the deal. I'm going to be in the Denver-Boulder area from tomorrow until Monday. I'm mainly in town to check out the CU Buffs vs. Iowa State Cyclones (as I run the SBNation site for ISU, and I want to see my Cyclones try and secure a bowl bid), but that's not the only thing I'm hoping to do. I was planning on going to the Broncos game on Sunday because I've always been told that going to a Broncos game is a live-ass atmosphere, and due to the fact that the CU game is going to be the polar opposite, I was very much looking forward to this.
Then comes the 2-6 start from the Broncos. I've been going online about fans boycotting going to the game, and things like that. I just want to know: if I go to the game on Sunday, is it still going to be a fun time? I like the NFL, watch the NFL, so I know what I'm getting on the field. But if its going to be "meh" at Invesco, am I better served just watching it on TV, perhaps at a local establishment?
So help a guy out. Am I throwing money down the toilet going to this game, or do you still think it will be a good time? I've seen a lot of the Chiefs, and I think this is a close game the Broncos can win.
Thanks!
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2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 2: Patience
During some of the draft write-ups, I talked about the importance of being patient with your team, and how this is a marathon, not a sprint. I just want to take a moment to reiterate that. You might be looking at your roster, seeing that some guys are not putting up the numbers that you like, and seeing yourself at a spot in the standings you do not like. You could also be on the flip-side, getting a little too confident after looking everything over. It's only 2-4 games, depending on your player.
Any player can go on a tear for a week. Actually, it can happen quite a bit, as some players are just flat-out streaky. At this point of the season, I'm not really looking to make any moves because we cannot draw many conclusions. Just something to keep in mind.
Below are some of my thoughts from Week 1 action:
How Many Of Y'all Still Like Turnovers In Fantasy Basketball? Because, honestly I hate them. Hate them, hate them, hate them. The turnover leaders this far (top 5) are LeBron, Nash, Amare, Gerald Wallace, and Rajon Rondo. It's clear all of this players suck, right?
The Lakers Are Reducing Kobe's Minutes, But I See No Reason To Fret. While they try and preserve his body for another championship run, Kobe is seeing about 32 minutes/game, as opposed to the 38-39 minutes/game. It isn't the hugest deal, and actually on a per minute basis, he's doing slightly better than last year. He may average more like 22 points than 27, but so what? There's only about 20 guys/year that put up over 20/game. The big thing I'd watch with Kobe, is if he's still getting steals or not. Steals are very valuable, especially from the SG position. At the same time, they require effort to get, and as a guy who's slowing and trying to save his legs, it'd something to watch for over the next few weeks. That's the only thing I'd probably monitor, but at this point it's too early to jump to anything.
The "Big Three" Are Trying To Learn How To Play. I watched two Miami games, and for times, they looked lost on offense. I haven't gotten a chance to watch their more recent game, but from what I saw, they played better when only one of LeBron or Wade was in the game. I've been saying this for months now, but I do not see how these guys can co-exist, as they have similar strengths which demand them handling the ball. Bosh is the early "loser" in terms of fantasy production, as he's averaging 13 points, and 6.5 rebounds a game. It's still early though, and the Heat need to continue to find ways to play together. I'm sure there will be some games where Bosh takes over, so do not get discouraged. Hopefully, you were expecting a decline in each of the individual stats between LeBron, Wade, and Bosh anyhow.
Kevin Love Owners May Be Scratching Their Heads. It's early, but I'm sure it's awesome to see the guy in the Top 5 of rebounding... Then you look at his minutes per game, and realize it's pretty low, at about 25 per game. In your mind, you probably figure if he averaged more like 35 minutes/game, he might be leading the league in it! Here's why he's playing less: his defense is horrendous, and Kurt Rambis isn't going to give a guy a ton of minutes who cannot defend. I have watched two T-Wolves games in their entirety. Love has slow feet, and doesn't even try to take a charge. He simply sticks his arms out, and lets guys go around him. To me, he's one of those guys who looks better in the box score than what you see live.
I Am Loving The NBA League Pass Broadband Preview. I got to watch a lot of games, and am debating ordering it, or not. On one hand, it'd be awesome to have the option to watch almost any game I want. On the other hand, I do have other things going on with life, including season tickets to Iowa State Basketball (which starts up very soon). Not sure how much I'd have to watch to justify the $35/month I'd be spending.
I do not really have a ton to add at the moment. I had to hurry through this, but wanted to put something up as we head into Week 2. With all my teams, I'm standing pat at the moment, and letting the numbers play out a little bit. I have Mo Williams, and Gilbert Arenas on one team, so I'm hoping to see those guys play this week. If you any specific questions about your team, or want to know what you should do with your team, please ask in the comments. I think seeing what you guys are thinking about (if anyone is indeed reading this), will help me with how I should deliver the content. It's just so early. Hopefully after this week, I can get more into the stats, and talk about what I like and do not like from what I'm seeing.
Stick with your guns, and don't do anything to irrational and stupid is my main advice as we get into the second week. Rondo isn't going to average 17 assists/game all season, and nobody in the league is going to make more than 3 threes/game either, so don't make any boneheaded trades banking on that. Enjoy the inflated stats you may have right now, and know it will not last. If you think some guys are off to a slow start, just realize this: if he has one big game, that is going to create a big swing, and will be all good. It's a game of runs anyhow.
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Draft Recap
After it was all said and done, I drafted two fantasy basketball teams for this upcoming season. Why two you ask? That's a great question. The main reason was that I felt like I needed a "warm-up" in a sense for the auction, and I didn't really feel like doing a Mock Draft. I also have one ESPN League and one Yahoo League, so I can continue to evaluate the pros and cons of each one.
Anyhow, I will list my entire rosters, but I will spare you the details of going play-by play with it. A question may be how I think I did this year, and to be honest, I don't really know. It seems like whenever I'm really high on my teams after the draft, they tend to disappoint, and when I'm kind of low on my teams, they tend to do well. I always have A, B, and C goals with fantasy sports. My C goal is to finish in the top half, B is to finish 3rd, and A is to win the damn thing. I consider it an epic failure to not finish in the top half.
Moving on a little bit, I wanted to note some observations I saw from the draft:
Points come at a premium. If a guy scores over 19 a game, even if they do not contribute across many categories in a significant way, it seemed like they'd go for a lot more than I anticipated. Remember, points are just one category. If the guy isn't getting things like rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, it doesn't help you as much. Sometimes you just need a guy that drops a lot of points, which is fine if they make a lot of threes. But if you build a team around points only, you will not do well.
Three pointers were also at a premium in both the leagues I was in. I don't know if guys are drafting specifically 3 point shooters, but guys like Gallaniri, J.R. Smith, and Jason Richardson seemed to go for a few bucks more than what I'd want to spend on these guys (although ideally I would have liked to own at least one of those guys as a "fill-in" guy). Last year there were only 16 guys who averaged more than 2 3pointers a game, and it's nice to own 1-2 (as long as one gets you those 5+ assists!), but it was hard to do!
People value big men who do not block shots. Lee,Love, Boozer, etc., go too high, while Okafor, Duncan, and Marc Gasol seemed to go at bargains. They aren't top flight big men anymore, but getting a handful of those guys help with balance. It's hard to find guards that block shots. You need to draft Power Forwards and Centers that not only score and rebound but block. I'll sacrifice a rebound/game for a block/game.
I remember the days when Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace were underrated. I had both these guys on my team, along with 4 Assist + Steal Guys (that all put up big time 3 pointers), Rashard Lewis (3 point fill-in guy), and I just tore it up. I dominated the league so bad, it wasn't even funny. Those days are gone, sadly.
People are very impatient with auction drafts. I kept throwing out $10 players that were going for $18-20, which made some go so broke, that I (along with a few others) could swoop in, and get $20 players for $15, and $10 players for $5. People are so anxious to get their teams, and don't have the auction thing down quite yet. I can't say I'm as much of an expert with auctions for basketball than I am with baseball, but having done it for a few years now, I'm a lot more used to it. I can't hate too much though, as the first time I did an auction draft I went broke fast, and saw all the bargains in the middle I was missing out on. Unsurprisingly I finished last... The key is that it's cool to make mistakes; it happens to everyone. For me, I want to learn and get better. Hopefully you do too, as you make mistakes!
After the jump, I'll list my two rosters side-by-side. I am playing in two 10 team leagues:
Are CU Fans Mean?
And no, this isn't meant to be trolling, just curious about your honest answers. I am going to be heading to Boulder for the Iowa State game here in a couple of weeks. I do not have tickets yet, but am confident I"ll be able to find some between now and the game without too much of an issue.
What I'm more somewhat concerned about are CU fans. I've never been to Folsom before, but from reading around, it sounds like CU fans have kind of a bad rep in terms of how they treat opposing fans. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily true, but curious on what people's takes are on here.
If I go to the game, sit in the non-vistor section, will my life be miserable during the game? I'm the kind of guy who just rocks my teams colors and cheers to myself. I'm not one of those guys that gets all crazy, and tries to rile anybody up. That said, I want to have a pleasant experience and enjoy the game. Is it better if I just don't wear any team's colors?
On a personal level, I have no animostiy towards CU at all. My wife actually works at CU, and I'm going out there to visit and take in the game.
Just want to know your take, along with any tips you may have for fans of opposing fanbases (what to do, not do, etc). I know nothing is guarenteed, but am just wanting to minimize my risks. Thanks!
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 1: The Season Starts Today!
By now, you've drafted your team. The NBA tips off tonight, and undoubtley, there will be a quite a few people checking the games out, seeing what their guys look like and how they stand. This is gerat. I actually recommend watching as much as you can, as it makes you a better fantasy player, and it really gives you more detail than what comes out of the boxscore.
The big thing to keep in mind, however, is the season is 82 games. It's not one night long, nor is it one week long. Something that the popularity of fantasy football has done, as it has gotten people to have short sighted views of baseball and basketball seasons. Depending on your player, they have 2-4 games this week. That's only 2-4% of the season, and not really enough of a sample size to draw conclusions.
Players have bad games. Others start slow. Don't make any drastic changes. The only thing I'd keep in mind is playing time, especially if the guy is not injured. I'm still not saying to make any drastic changes, but if you drafted a guy who you were hoping was going to get 30 minutes a night, and they are getting 20, it's time to investigate. Keep in mind of who's playing ahead of him, and how that player is doing. Keep in mind if playing time is varying based on the team they are playing. Was their foul trouble? There's a lot to keep track of, but things you have to pay attention to if you want to be good at this. Either way, be patient. Unless there is a major rift and/or a guy may be on the way out, let things play out a bit. Don't drop somebody who ends up to be very serviceable, and don't let someone take advantage of you, by sending you a crap trade offer.
Lastly, a couple of things I'm interested in seeing from a fantasy perspective this week
1. How the Big Three in Miami fare. Specifically how LeBron and Wade coexist and what happens with their statistics. I mean, they will be a good team and win some games. Just from the fantasy perspective, how big of a hit their assist and point totals take. Will one guy try and dominate, or will they both give a little to try and help the team win? Have to see. Good news is that they will be on National TV on both tonight (TNT) and Friday (ESPN) and playing 4 games this week as well. We'll learn more.
2. Blake Griffin. I've heard he is going to be a monster. I've banked on it, in a way. I'm not exactly expecting him to take over the game, but I do expect him to be one of the better big men in the game. I'm looking forward to seeing him play. Will get my first chance on ESPN on Wednesday night.
3. The return of Yao. I don't own him, but interested in seeing how he does and how his feet/legs hold up. Get to see him in action tonight on TNT.
4. Big Al Jefferson in Utah. He's an upgrade to Boozer, and with a better point guard situation than Minnesota, I can't see why Al Jefferson can't put up 20-10 with 1-2 blocks/game. Utah will be a fun team to watch.
What are you looking forward to?
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Draft Tips
Before, I was going to do this whole full-blown draft strategy, go round by round, talk about stuff, but I changed my mind.
For me, I have my list of assist + steal guys, including what round I think they'll go in, I have my rebound + block guys, including what round I think they'll go in, and I have a list of fill-in types of players I'd draft on my team as well (I will go the next step and list what rounds they go in as well, but didn't on here). I use my lists, and hope for the best.
Instead, I'm going to list some tips about drafting. If you have any specific questions, please ask. One thing about draft advice is that it's impossible to cover every scenario, so I'm not even going to try. Hopefully my tips give you something to think about. If its stuff you already know, awesome, then its just review!
1. It is good to have a plan, just be willing to adjust your plan. Things happen. Sometimes you are playing with a wacky group of people, and players are gone earlier than you thought, while other players are dropping farther than you can believe. It's important to be flexible, and to adapt to what the other people are doing.... In other words, its fine if you have a plan like in round 1 you want to get an assist + steal guy, in round 2-3 you want to get a rebound + block guy, in round 4 you want to get an assist + steal guy, but if on the day, with what's unfolding, don't feel like you have to stick to the plan rigidly.
I see this with fantasy baseball as well. I see guys say stuff like "I'm going to do hitter, then pitcher, then alternate between hitter and pitcher every round".... Before the draft, that's fine if that's your plan. But on the draft, you have to take the players that give you the best marginal value.
2. When I draft, I always have 48% FG%, 80% FT%, 1 3PTM/G, 16 PTS/G, 7 REB/G, 4 AST/G, 1 STL/G, 1 BLK/G in mind. As I'm drafting, I'm always seeing where I lie relative to those averages. To make things simple, I average FG% and FT%, but in real life you can't do that unless guys shoot the same number of shots in a game. But on draft day, you have to go with rough numbers. But I'm always checking to see what I'm doing good with, and planning a new strategy going forward.
I also want to say a quick word with the benchmarks. These may not exactly be what it takes to win every category necessarily. This is more in line with 10-12 team leagues, with the standard 10 person lineups. If you play in a more shallow league, the numbers may be higher. If you play in a deeper league than 12 teams, they may be lower. If you play in a league with more starting spots, it may be higher. Its all going to be relative to everyone else in the league obviously. If you haven't played before, or you haven't played in your league before, go by something like this.
At various points in the year, I will look at my own league standings and compare to benchmarks above. Remember, this is what all 10 guys on your team are supposed to average, if you were to win every category. Winning every category is hard. But I contend if you aim to get as close as possible to these numbers, it gives you the best chance to get within the Top 3 of every category.
3. Realize that its impossible to have a perfect draft. The only way to have a perfect one, is to be able to know/control what everyone else is doing. If you do your research, and have a plan, however, you can have a very very nice draft.
4. Realize that you can trade players during the season as well. A big thing I like to say is "take what the draft gives you". Take advantage of picking up players with the best marginal stats relative to the field.. Heck, if a guy that I think has 2nd round talent is available in the 5th round, I'm going to pick him up. If it turns out I have too much of a particular stat, that's why there are trades. If it turns out the guy is a 1st round talent instead of a 2nd round talent, I can unload him for a premium and categories I need.
Fantasy basketball is different than baseball in that the waiver wire isn't as helpful for the most part. It's very hard to play the wire all year and do well... Typically the early part of the season is when the waiver wire has some valuable players. But where fantasy basketball is similar is that its a long season, and making solid trades can really help you out. Its very important to draft a good team, but if you aren't getting the exact balance you want, pull off some trades... Do not reach 2-3 rounds to get a guy to fill a particular category, when you have a guy available that's the better overall fantasy player. Pick him up, and trade him... Get the guy you were eying a round or two later.
5. There is nothing wrong with grabbing a guy a round early or so. With my strategy, I'm talking about a small number of guys that I want. For example, if there are only 20-25 assist + steal guys, and there are 12 fantasy teams, its hard to get 4 of them, right? Well, I'm not going to mess around for the most part. If a guy is there that normally goes in the 4th round, but I'm in the 3rd round, I'll grab him. Because chances are, he'll go one pick before mine in the 4th round! Its only when you're in the 3rd round, and you're eying a guy that is projected to go in the 6th-7th round, where reaching is a little silly
6. If plans go awry, draft the best possible player you can. Ok, so you didn't get 4 assist + steal guys. No worries. If that's the case, I would hope you'd have an extra fill-in 3 point guy, or possible some extra rebound + block guys, or just some extra fill in guys that get rebounds + points, or points + blocks. The season isn't over. Put together some packages to get the guys you want. You may have to wait a couple weeks. Get Blake Griffin. When everyone thinks he's the next Tim Duncan, you can imagine what some in your league might be willing to give up to get him. It's a long season. Don't throw in the towel, just because it didn't all go according to plan. Think of it as a challenge to overcome. If things don't go the way I want them do, I try to illustrate a plan on what I'm going to do, to try and win the league.
In fantasy baseball, I was in a pretty deep 12 team roto league, and in dead last on June 30th. I made a few trades, and finished in 3rd... And I didn't have Tulo...... Same analogy can apply for basketball. It can look bad at times, but you may be a couple of moves away from it not being the case at all.
7. Have Fun! This is something that sometimes gets lost on those of us who are pretty competitive. This is really meant to be something fun to do. The real world has enough problems out there. When I do fantasy sports, I want it to be an escape from all the stress, all the fighting, all the reality out there that's negative. If you are not having fun when playing, then you probably shouldn't play. And that goes with fantasy football, baseball, etc.
If you have any specific questions about your draft, let me know, and feel free to email me at kieffer.mark@gmail.com if you want. If you're playing head-to-head, I employ pretty much a best player available strategy, and do not even worry about my player categorizations. If you are doing an auction, think of rounds as dollar amounts. Maybe you can't pay a premium for all the players you want. That's fine. Pick up the players at the best marginal cost, and trade them for the players you do want.
If you draft this weekend, best of luck!
I will be checking the comments between now and Monday, but will not do another post until Monday night or Tuesday!
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Post #5: Fill In Guys
Post #4: Rebound + Block Guys
Post #3: Assist + Steal Guys
Post #2: Putting A Team Together
Post #1: An Overview
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Fill In Guys
I've talked about assist + steal players, and rebound + block players. But what about the other guys, right? Are there other players out there that do not fall into either category that can help your team? Absolutely, and we want 2 Fill In Players.
So when we're drafting assist + steal guys, we're trying to compile assists, and hope we can get steals, 3s, etc.. But depending on your luck, you're probably going to end up with a guy that dishes the ball out quite a bit, but doesn't really shoot 3s (Westbrook, Andre Miller, etc), and/or may not score a lot of points (Jason Kidd). It can happen, and it probably will happen. For example, if Russell Westbrook is looking like a good option, even though he doesn't shoot 3s, you gotta take it.
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Rebound + Block Guys
I'm going to try and shorten this one up compared to the assist + steals post. I am not trying to write books here, but it's just working out like that. I promise.
The basic idea of Rebounds + Block Guys for me, is that I want to draft 4 guys that get at least 7 rebounds/game, block at least 1 shot/game, and put up double digit points. I would especially like it if they shot above 48%, and if their FT% wasn't south of 70%.
Similar to the assist + steal guys, the number of guys that are able to do get to these marks is small. There were only 34 players that averaged 7 or more rebounds/game last year. If you continue to filter for blocks, points, etc., you get about 20 guys that are ideal, with another 4-5 that have the potential to get there.
I do think it is important to get guys who can block shots. You need to have guys that can do it consistently. Only 34 guys last year averaged a block or more per game (different set than the 34 that averaged 7 or more blocks). It would be nice to have 4-5 of them without screwing yourself over in other areas. That only leaves about 20-25 players... And I want 4 of them.
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Assist + Steal Guys
If you read my last post about putting a team together, you will see that I group guys into three categories. With this, I would like to jump in more depth about Assist + Steal guys, along with guys I'm targeting in my draft.
Assist + Steal guys to me, are guys that get 5-6 assists per game, and more than 1 steal per game at a minimum. I also like it when they have a FT% of over 80%, and I really like it when they drain more than 1 3 per game. I make 5 assists/game the cutoff for the guys I want to rely on, but will draft 4.5 or less guys later to fill out my bench, in hopes maybe they can get to 5 that year. Overall, there just aren't many players in the group.
Looking at assists only, there are only 12 players with another 20 players getting above 5 assists per game, but less than 6. That's only 30-35 guys out there. When you factor in steals, the number goes down.
These are the assist+steal guys from last year (5+ assists, 1+ steal):
Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Jason Kidd, LeBron James, Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook, Gilbert Arenas, Devin Harris, D-Wade, Steph Curry, Andre Iguodala, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison, Chauncey Billiups, Raymond Felton, Chris Duhon, Andre Miller, Mike Conley, Monta Ellis, Mo Williams, Earl Watson, Kobe Bryant, Joe Johnson (4.9 assists/game), Manu Ginobili (4.9 assists/game)
26 guys, and that's without factoring the want for good FT% and good 3pt shooting (the number would be more like 12-13 when factoring ideal thresholds in those categories).
The important thing to look at, however, is not only what happened last year, but we think may happen this year. We have to throw out Earl Watson, as he's now a backup for Deron Williams in Utah. Chris Duhon is backing up Jameer Nelson in Orlando now, but if Nelson gets injured, Duhon could step in and be very serviceable.
Arenas, Paul, and Wade are injury risks, and Kidd, Billups, and Bryant are getting old. With Arenas, you also have to figure Wall will cut into his assist totals. With LeBron and Wade you gotta figure some of their numbers will go down. Can these guys get back on this list? Can the injured guys play a full season? That's why they play the game, right? Some guys may drop off the list, while others may get on it. That's the fun with it.
All I really know is that there will probably be 20-25 getting to the exclusive Assist + Steals list, with another few guys on the fringe, and a few more having the potential to getting on the fringe... That, and I want 4 of them. Which 4 do I want? That's the fun of the draft!
ESPN Magazine Cover
ESPN teamed up with Marvel to create a "cover" for each team. Anyone see the cover for the T-Wolves? You gotta be an insider to see, but here is the link... We are the last listed team in the West, not really a surprise.
Anyhow, I just thought it was pretty clever. Has Love, Beasley, and Brewer, with Rubio as Iceman.... Sometimes you just gotta laugh to ease the pain!
Which one is your favorite cover?
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2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: Putting A Team Together
Below is a high level look at how to put a successful fantasy basketball team together. I group players into three categories, and I will explain how I group those players.
With roto, there's really no getting around the idea of building a balanced team. You are going to have to place high in pretty much all of the categories. In fact, you have to get in the Top 3 in each category on average to have a shot to win it. This depends on how many categories you play with, but in a 12 team league, with the setup I play (8 categories), I'm trying to amass 80 points as a team to win. That's what I'm shooting for on draft day: to build a team that can project to get me 80 points overall. If I get last in a particular category, I need to get 79 points across 7 categories, meaning I need to get first in 2 categories, and 2nd in the other five categories.
With head To head, I don't think balance is as important. I think you can punt a category or two, and build on the other categories. The key is to build off of the categories though. If I can mostly ignore FT% and Assists, I can dominate in Head To Head, as many of the rankings factor the scarcity of assists and avoiding guys who's FT% can hurt your team total in that category. If I can win 6 of the 8 categories most of the time, I'm going to have a solid Head To Head team.
2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Week 0: An Overview
Welcome to the first, of hopefully many posts I plan to do about fantasy basketball! This first one is quite big, but it's also easy to skip around if you wish. I'm writing here because I'm getting back into playing fantasy basketball, and want to provide an outlet for those of us who play or want to play can have a conversation. I tend to enjoy discussions on SB Nation much more than via messageboards, so I thought I'd try it out here and see how it goes.
Like things in life, there is more than 1 way to solve a problem or to go about things. My hope is that I can come up with topics and opinions that can provide some meaningful discussion in general. I have not won every league I've played in, so I make mistakes and am sometimes wrong too. Will following my advice win you your league? Who knows? But my hope it at least gives you something to think about, and give you something to talk about. With the regular season tipping off in a week from today, I've got a lot of ground to cover!
Interested In Fantasy Basketball?
Hey all, I talked to Ray before posting and wanted to ask a couple of things to the community:
1) Do you have an interest in getting some kind of fantasy basketball coverage on the site?
2) Would you be interested in joining an auction, roto, fantasy basketball league I just set up on Yahoo?
Going back to #1, I'm a big fan of this site. Since most of you do not know who I am, I also write for the Iowa State Cyclones SB Nation site (Clone Chronicles). Anyhow, I'm a huge college and NBA fan, and I play a lot of fantasy sports (or at least I used to play a lot of fantasy sports).
After taking a year break from fantasy basketball, I'm trying to get back into it, and was also was thinking about maybe doing a little writing about fantasy basketball, including helping with your draft, moves, etc? I was envisioning putting something up once or twice a week about it? If there isn't an interest, however, then no worries.
If you are interested in playing in my league, email me at kieffer.mark@gmail.com .With the league I set up, Yahoo seemed like the most logical place, and because I wanted to build up my fantasy profile, because most of my fantasy basketball experience was NOT on Yahoo, so it looks like I kinda suck at it.It's $25 via paypal, 12 teams, 8 categories, roto, live auction draft. Should be a lot of fun. I set up a poll to see if you guys would want some discussion about fantasy basketball on the site at all as well.
Advice About Going To Invesco
Hey all,
I will be in the Denver area during the weekend of the KC Chiefs game. I've heard great things about going to Broncos games, and I was thinking about attending this one. I've been looking online at Stubhub and other places to get some tickets. I'm curious where the best place is to sit without having to file for Chapter 11? Can people generally see the field OK from the 500 sections? If I cannot get a decent seat and a somewhat reasonable price (by NFL standards), then I'd just watch the game on TV or something instead.
Any help would be great! Thanks!
Looking Back At The Fantasy Baseball Season And My Draft Strategy
What up all? I used to come on here more frequently, but lost track of things. Anyhow, another great season of fantasy baseball concluded for me! I played in two roto auction leagues, and I finished 1st in one of them, and third in another one of them! I've won at least one league every year, and it is rare for me to finish outside the first half. And yes, these are 12 team leagues, none of that weak 8 team junk!
If you've read anything I've posted here in the past, I am big on not paying much for pitchers. It's the strategy I go with, and this year (like most years) it worked out excellently. It's always very debated, but to me, pitchers typically are priced in a way that is backward-looking, and in fantasy sports, many of the traditional pitching stats are team dependent (wins, saves, ERA). What that means is 3 of the 5 statistics typically used can be very volatile. It's very difficult for a pitcher to put up consistent numbers in these categories. That's why typically the guys that do, are the guys to go to the hall of fame.
Raise your hand if you dropped $30+ for Greinke. I was on here trying to warn people it was going to be a waste, and it was. I had a guy in my league that paid $50 for Tim Lincecum. Crazy. How many on here had Jered Weaver as the 6th best starting pitcher in fantasy going into this year? He went for $7 in one of my leagues. What about Mat Latos? He went undrafted in my league, and ended up being a Top 20 fantasy pitcher this year. I paid $2 for Roy Oswalt, and he ended up being a Top 5 pitcher this year.
I didn't know he'd be as good as he was, but if he stunk it up like Greinke did, it'd be easy for me to let him go, rather than say "I spent $30 on him, he's gotta turn it around".. Greinke was owned in 90% of Yahoo leagues at the end of the year. No reason why the 70th-80th best pitcher should have that high of an ownership rate. But because people spent a high draft pick, or a high dollar amount on him, they needed to stick around with him.
Fantasy Baseball: Some Guys I'd Sell High
Yesterday, I posted some players that I'd buy low if I was trying to add some help, and didn't want to give up too much (or anything at all in some cases, playing the Waiver Wire). Anyhow, today I want to focus on guys that I think are going to hit the wall, and that I think you can get more than what they're worth.
- Carlos Silva. The guy just went 8-0. Surprise story in the NL Central, as nobody was expecting this. The guy currently is sporting a 2.93 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP. This is a guy in his 9th season, and has a career ERA of 4.62, and a career WHIP is 1.39 or so. So what's the deal here? Well, I think the guy is pitching a little over his head. He is benefiting right now from switching to the NL without a doubt, but I can't tell if he'll sustain this. His strikeout rate is 50% higher than his career mark, although his walks and homeruns allowed are in line with his career numbers. His hits allowed is about 20% lower than his career average as well and his BAbip is .262. One last note as well, his average run support/game is 6.8. Most starting pitchers are going to stack wins with that kind of support. For me, I don't think it will last, and trade him for something I need, if I have a good staff of starting pitchers. If my starting pitching is weak, then I probably hang onto him and hope for the best.
- Ubaldo Jimenez. Trade a guy who's just dominating the league right now, huh? Unlike Silva, I think Ubaldo is a good, possibly great, pitcher. I think he'll finish the season towards the top of pitching and it's his race to lose for the NL Cy Young. But right now, you can get a ton of value for Ubaldo. Again, it depends on what the rest of your pitching looks like, for sure, but say you're in bottom quartile of your league and you have Ubaldo. At your rate, you aren't winning the league anyways. Trading him, you can get a handful of quality players that can really help your team out. People are going to pay for that .93 ERA and .93 WHIP and those 11 wins (even though they didn't accumulate them), but I think we all know that those numbers will go up... Unless you think he's the 2nd coming of Pedro in the late 90s/early 2000s. Also, if you trade him, trade him to a team that's pitching is already pretty good, so there is less movement than if you're trading him to the team that's near the bottom in pitching. You want to get better, but you also want to move up in the standings.
- Scott Rolen. I'm not exactly sure what you can get for him. The guy is injury prone and 35 years old. If I had to bet, I'd guess he'd be spending some time on the DL. Even if he stayed health most of the season, I can't see him hitting more than 25 HRs on the year, and driving in more than 90 runs. Right now, he's performing like a Top-30 guy. He's going to regress and perform more like a Top 125 guy if I had to bet on it. Thing is, I'm not sure how much people are buying into Rolen right now anyways, and 3B can be tough to fill. Even if you're committed to keeping him, I'd be looking at other 3B options in the event he does go down.
- Jose Bautista. Kind of an obvious pick, I know. I don't know if anyone is buying into him too much as well, although I've seen some movement with him in a league I'm in, so obviously some people are believers. The guy has already hit his career high of HRs in a season. I don't think we're going to see 40+ HRs and 120+ RBI from him. Unload him, and hope that at least somebody in your league is buying into that.
- Jonathan Sanchez. Dude knows how to strike guys out. No doubt. 481.2 career innings pitched, 497 career strikeouts. You gotta give him that. His strike outs and walks are reasonable to his career totals. His hits allowed is way down though. His career mark is 8 hits allowed per 9, and this year it's 5.8 thus far. His career WHIP is 1.4, but he's pitching at 1.1 right now. His BAbip is .235 this year vs. his career average (and MLB average) of .299. In the past, his high WHIP was always a deal breaker. Strikeouts are harder to find via waivers than Wins, Saves, and WHIP. Here's the thing, he pitches on a team with a crappy offense, so there aren't going to be a ton of wins. Anyhow. I think he starts to give up more hits and runs. I think he pitches from here on out more like his career. If I owned him, I'd unload him while he's still ranked in the Top 25 of starting pitchers.
What about you guys? Who are your sell high candidates right now?
Fantasy Baseball: Some Buy-Low Guys I'm Feeling Right Now
Ok, so I've been doing some research and am trying to take one of my fantasy teams off of life support. This year has been a disaster for one of my teams. I have Rollins, Ellsbury, and Sizemore. Enough said, right?
We're at a point in the season where you really want to be making trades if you have to, as there is still time to make some headwind in categorys. Once you get into mid to late July, it gets harder, but I guess it also depends on where you stand relative to the rest of the pack on certain stats.
Here are a few guys that I believe will do something in the 2nd half of the year, and I see owners giving up on. Obviously if you are set in these positions/areas, then nevermind. Also it's your team, do what you want with it. Don't be picking up these guys and getting all mad if they don't work out... I'm just posting what I think, and everybody is wrong... especially when we're trying to guess what some grown-ass men (in my Charles Barkley voice if I had one) are going to do.
- Adam Lind. Ok, I'm not going to lie, but he's sucked, regardless of whether you're using batting average or OBP (I prefer OBP leagues, but that's another discussion). The guy has a BAbip of .247, so I think his average will improve, and he should be batting in the .250-.270 range for the rest of the season. I could see him hitting 15 HRs from here on out with, 40-50 RBI for the rest of the season as well. Maybe I'm crazy. But if you're desperate for some power, you may find an Adam Lind owner willing to give him up for pretty cheap. If the end of June comes around and there's no signs of him heating up, then maybe it's time to give up on Lind.
- Jason Bay. Now he does have a high ownership percentage similar to Lind, but I can tell you he's been a disappointment to fantasy owners. People drafted him too dang early to get only 3 HRs, and 24 RBI. Unlike Lind, however, the guy has a good batting average (.292 right now), and he's gotten a decent number of steals (8). It will be harder to pry him away. BUT, something to keep in mind is the man has never had a season with less than 20 HRs and 80 RBI in which he played a full season. There's a first time for everything, but I have those expectations for Bay if he stays healthy. His BAbip is a high .378, so I think it's reasonable to expect his batting average to decline to be in the .260-.275 range. But if he can finish this season above his 20 HR, and 80 RBI threshold, that's a great pickup.
- Carlos Pena. I'm seeing guys dropping him and losing confidence in him. His .175 average is looking bad, but this is a guy who's batting average realstically should be in the .230-.240 range. You're not drafting Carlos Pena for batting average, but for HRs and RBIs. A couple of good news items for Pena. First, he plays good enough defense that he's still getting playing time despite struggling at the plate. Secondly, his BAbip is .202. It should increase. I think he'll bat more in his normal .230-.240 range for a majority of the remainder of the season, and he'll hit a bunch of HRs (15-20).
- Aramis Ramirez. Typically he disappoints with injuries, but this year it's his production. All I can really say is that I think it's a bit mental as far as Ramirezs' production. I don't really see why he should be struggling so much. He's a better player, and he's 32. I think he's still young enough to be producing at a good level for the next couple of years. He did hit a HR on Saturday, so perhaps better days are ahead. If you're in need of some help at 3B. I'd keep expectations lower, like maybe 10 HRs, 40 RBI, and batting in the .260-.270 range over the rest of the season. Not game changing type stuff, but I think he'll be a Top 10 3B from now until the end of the season. Maybe I'm too optimistic.
- Gavin Floyd. You look at the 6+ ERA and WHIP over 1.6 and you probably throw up a little in your mouth, especially if you're a White Sox fan. As a Twins fan, I just laugh at you. But there are some potentially postive things that Floyd can bring. He isn't allowing a ton of homeruns like he did in 2008, as he's on pace to give up in the high teens-low 20s. His BAbip is .355, so he isn't getting any breaks behind him either. He isn't a top-of-the-line starter anyways, but I think he'll revert more in the high 3s or low 4s with his ERA, and strike out an additional 100 guys. His run support/game is a little over 4, so I see a .500 record or so with wins and losses from here on out as well, and him getting better defense/luck behind him. With another 19-20 starts, probably something like 7-8 wins with 7-8 losses and some no decisions. Pitching is hard to predict, but I think better days are ahead for Floyd. He should be performing like a solid starter, as opposed to how he's faring thus far.
There are probably several more guys, but these are guys I'm looking to, if my team is sucking and I need some help. If I own these guys, I'm sticking with them, becauase I'm probably not going to get much in return for them anyways... Unless you're trading with someone who has the same opinions as me....
What players are on your radar that you're seeing go for cheap in your leagues?
Adopting The Rockies
I have decided to "adopt" the Colorado Rockies as my favorite NL baseball team.... You may be asking yourself why I would do such a thing. I'm from the Twin Cities originally, and live in Iowa, mostly write about Iowa State Athletics, so what do I care about the Colorado Rockies? Right?
Well, one of the below choices is why I'm adopting the Rockies:
1. Ubaldo's No-No
2. Because Purple and Black are my favorite colors
3. Because trying to get my 2 year old nephew to say "Tulowitzki" five times is hilarious.
4. Unwilling to part with my Todd Helton and Jason Giambi jerseys that I bought back in 2000....
5. Because I like rooting for teams in divisions were anyone can win (Like I said, I'm from the Twin Cities and am a Twins fan. I know all about mediocrity in the division).
6. Because the Rockies are NOT one of the 6 teams blacked out on mlb.tv in Iowa.
Ok I lied.... None of those are reasons why I'm adopting the Rockies as my NL team, and not even all of them are true.... I don't have a Helton nor do I have a Giambi jersey. I've never had my nephew say Tulowitzki, although I promise if he tried, it'd be hilarious!
My wife is relocating to Boulder for a job, and I will be spending a bunch of time in the area for the forseeable future. We've been to Coors field before, and had a blast! I know she is excited to have a "home" team for the first time ever in her life. I like a lot of the players on the Rockies, and think they are a fun team to watch.
I'm not going to fake the funk though. I'm not going to act like I was there from day 1, nor will the Rockies replace the team I grew up watching. But in baseball, I think there's enough room to have a team in each league, without causing too much conflict.
I look forward to reading this site on a regular basis, and participating in banter with other Rockies' fans!
The Greatest Weekend Of The Year!
For those of us that are fantasy baseball enthusiants, the weekend before baseball season starts (technically it starts on Sunday, but shhh) is often when we're drafting our fantasy teams.
I used to be a guy that played in 10-15 fantasy baseball teams a year. I'd draft all throughout March, which was fun, but managing the teams burned me out.
Now I play 2-3 teams a year. This year, I'm playing one Mixed League H2H Snooze Snake Draft, one 10-team 5x5 AL-Only Auction league, and one smaller (8-10 team), Saber-Slanted Mixed Auction league (more details on this in the comments if you're curious)
I've drafted my Snake Draft team already, and last night I drafted by AL-Only team as well. Now, a lot of guys like to post their entire teams, dollar values, and want us to rate their teams. I like to read these and respond to those fanposts that do that, because I'm a fantasy enthusiast. I'm 26 and have been playing Fantasy Baseball for over half my life. But I'm not really wanting you to do that here, so I'll spare you a lot of the details.
I wanted to share my takeaways from both of the drafts, to maybe give you something to think about as you head into your draft(s) this weekend. I know this is a savvy group, but I still see people out there making some silly decisions:
1. People continue to overpay for pitching.
This really baffles me, because almost every year there is that guy you take in the middle rounds that turn out to be a stud. Grienke and Johnson were that last year. Now, stud pitching is tough to find, and I'm not going to disagree that CC is one of the best pitchers in the game, but the price/draft spot you have to get him at, is it really worth it?
Greinke had a great year, but is this the start of a new trend, or just that, a great year? In my auction league, Grienke went for the 6th highest price overall. If you're getting him at that rate, anything short of Cy-Young again, and you're out of luck.
In my auction league, King Felix, Grienke, CC, Verlander, Jon Lester, and Jake Peavy all went in the Top 15 Overall dollar-wise.
In my snake draft, guys were wasting 1st Round picks on Lincecum and King Felix, while others were waiting until the 8th round to get Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. I took my first pitcher in the 11th Round in that Draft (Matt Garza).
Am I going to win my league in pitching? No, but I'm just trying to be middle of the pack. When you take into account that ERA, Wins, and Saves are volatile from year to year, it seems even more foolish to waste a high pick on a pitcher who will help you win a couple of categories guarenteed (WHIP and Ks are more consistent to project), vs. some hitting that helps you in all 5 of the offensive categories! Then factor in the high risk of getting injured that pitchers face, and you can quickly see how your fantasy season can go down the tubes rather quickly if you pay premiums on pitching.
You can pick up Wins and Saves via the Waiver Wire. It's much harder to pick up 30+ HRs.
2. People really do little research
This probably bugs me more than anything else, but it's the reason why some people just suck at fantasy sports. There was someone who nominated Joe Nathan, because he didn't know he was injured. Others threw out Jermaine Dye and Jarrod Washburn, both guys who may not even end up in the AL, and they went for more than $1 or $2.
I get that this isn't life or death, and we're doing this for fun. But with all of the information out there, it's easy to find some of this stuff with doing 30 minutes to an hour of some reading.
3. If you're Auctioning, there's no award for most money left over (unless you play in a league where those dollars go towards your free agent budget).
I'm all about saving money early on, not going too crazy too quickly. The thing is that if you have a money advantage over the rest of the people in your league in the middle to late rounds of the draft, you can get guys at a really good value. (Maybe there's a $15 player out there that you can get for $10, because others can't afford to go higher than that).
At the same time, hanging on for too long is a nightmare as well. At the end, all of the guys are $1-$2 players anyways. Trying to jack up the price to $4 or $5 for them is silly to do.
I don't really have too much advice other than plan our budget out. Decide what players you want to target, and how much you'll pay for them. About halfway through the draft, re-evalulate. You may find yourself in a position to drop some cash on that $15 dollar player, that you didn't originally plan for because you got other guys for cheaper. Or maybe vice-versa. Maybe you can't get that $20 OF because you overpaid for your Closer. You want to figure this out, while there are still quality guys in the pool.
4. Find Ways To Stay Motivated Throughout The Season
Fantasy Baseball is a grind. To win, you're going to have to work the wire and probably pull off some trades. It all depends on how competitve the league is. It takes some a time commitment to be good.
The draft is supposed to start the season, but I see many people who draft and never really show again. I've been there too. Don't be like that. You can find ways to have fun, or new challenges despite how things are going!
Later on in the season, I'll share some things that I do to stay motivated.
5. Have Fun!
People make mistakes. Heck, I think I know a lot and screwed up a couple of picks in the drafts. It happens to everyone. It isn't life and death, and it's supposed to be for fun.
If you aren't having fun playing fantasy sports, then you should try a new hobby.
Best of luck this weekend, and here's to a fun and exciting 2010!
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