Ah, access.  It's what makes the sports reporting world go 'round.  It's why guys like Haudricourt and Witrado are considered point men on the Brewers, and why blogs are just guys shooting off their mouths in front of a computer.  Never fear, TH is doing his best to bring uninformed fanspeak to the pages of the JS, without contaminating his post with any information he could gather by virtue of his "access."

This morning, I stumbled across this post on Gallardo's performance yesterday.  Notice that TH throws a little red meat out there for the fans:

Gallardo's pitch count climbed when leadoff hitter Joey Gathright worked him for a walk and so did No. 3 hitter Milton Bradley (who, by the way, exited after that walk. Guess they don't want to overtax the new guy).

Ha!  It's funny because it's Milton Bradley, and it's always fun to take a shot at Milton Bradley.  Welcome to the blogosphere, Tom!

Unfortunately, those wet blankets over at the AP decided to ruin the punchline by doing some actual "reporting" (whatever that is).  Via the Brewers page over at Yahoo! Sports, I discovered that maybe there was something more to Bradley's quick exit.

Milton Bradley’s spring training debut was cut short by an injury.

Well, jeez.  That's not nearly as funny as making something up.  I don't know how those guys at the AP sleep at night.

 

How about if we see how well we know Dale?  According to a headline which points to the always-broken JS blogs, the postseason roster should be announced today.  So, let's put forth some guesses!

 

Disclaimer - I don't know nearly as much about playoff roster rules as some other people.  I'm assuming Dale can insert Stetter by taking advantage of someone's spot on the DL.

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Dale doesn't have a lot of time to pick out new curtains for the clubhouse, or have that industrial coffee maker removed.  He's not even at Miller Park for his debut;  he's dodging the rats at Wrigley Field.  He seems like the kind of guy who prefers the trough, so maybe it'll work out.

The very first managerial task that we get to critique will be Dale's lineup.  I know Jeff is going to be excited to see a post on lineup construction, so let's get to it!

Regular Lineup, post-ASB OPS

2b Weeks .804
ss Hardy .807
3b Braun .951
1b Fielder .850
rf Hart .724
cf Cameron .887
3b Hall .621
c Kendall .637

Melvin and Attanasio made a point yesterday that the onus is now on the players to perform, so Sveum won't want to get too crazy with the lineup.  However, based on the post-ASB numbers for the regulars, there is clearly room for improvement.  Also, it wouldn't hurt to get some lefties in there against Dempster.

Dempster 2008 OPS against
vs RHB  .606
vs LHB  .669

Who are the possible substitutions?

Durham .824 post ASB, .805 season
Counsell .653 season
Lamb .596 season
Gwynn

These guys don't have enough PA to go on post-ASB numbers, and Gwynn just got called up, so I'm not looking at their numbers as much as I am trying to get some lefties in against Dempster.  Even though it's a new era, a few of the regulars need to sit.  It's a no-brainer to bench Hall and Weeks, and Hart has been circling the drain for a while now.  Maybe a day or two off will help these guys.


2b Durham
ss Hardy
3b Braun
1b Fielder
cf Cameron
rf Gwynn
3b Counsell
c Kendall

And Kendall sits tomorrow.  No excuses.

Prince Fielder is the leader of the Brewers clubhouse.  The broadcasters repeat it ad nauseum, the sports writers throw it in there for color, and the manager and coaches talk about how important it is.  So, why is the new guy off message on this?

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Another tie?  I'm glad the season's about to start--I can't keep track of the game threads with all these ties.

Ben Sheets gets his last start of Spring Training today against Gavin Floyd and the White Sox.  Yesterday's game thread was overshadowed by the release of Claudio Vargas, and there was both much rejoicing and much gnashing of teeth.  It looks like he may end up on a contender.

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Oh, it's a historic day my friends.  The Red Sox and the As opened the regular season this morning in Tokyo, and this afternoon we have an interleague Spring Training game for the Brewers.  That's right, the Dodgers come on over to Maryvale from the Grapefruit League.  Carlos Villanueva and Dave Bush are scheduled to pitch today.

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Manny Parra takes the mound against the Rockies today with four actual regulars in the lineup.  Unless Manny gives up 12 home runs and then pees on Ned's Dale Earnhardt "God Needed a Driver" sticker, his spot in the starting rotation is probably locked in.

While it's never good to have a player out for physical reasons, with JJ Hardy still out of the lineup with unexplained weight loss, we get to see some more Escobar today.  He's just fun to watch.

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A couple of underachieving Brewers pitchers face each other today as former Brewer Doug Davis goes up against Jeff Suppan at 3:05 CDT.  Suppan took a ball off the head in my MLB 2k8 franchise and needed to be out for five days, so I put him on the 15-day DL and called up Manny Parra.  I may move him to the 60-day DL.

Yost still hasn't settled on the rotation after Sheets and Suppan at the top.  Part of his decision will hinge on who pitches the home opener against the Giants.

Yost called that game, "monster, mega Opening Day in Milwaukee." He would tend to assign a more veteran pitcher to that game, but left the door open for Parra or Villanueva.

"It depends on his makeup," Yost said.

Yost's blind veneration of gritty veterans causes him to completely overlook the fact that Villanueva is the most likely to be unaffected by the pressure of that game.  Bush doesn't settle down until after he's given up a five-run inning.

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Red Sox @ Yomiuri Giants is on mlb.tv and the commentary is in Japanese.  Better than Joe Buck.  The radar gun is reporting pitch speeds in kilometers per hour, though.  That's no good.

In other news, JJ Hardy may have been recently playing with colobus monkeys.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy remained inactive, however, due to weakness after experiencing flu-like symptoms. Tests are being run on Hardy, who lost 10 pounds, to see if he has an internal parasite.

Claudio Vargas faces Matt Cain as San Francisco continues its quest to surround talented young pitching with gritty, gritty veterans.  Hey!  The Giants have five players on their roster that are old than me, and four of them are defensive starters.  It's a tough call whether they break Spring Training with the team, or if they just buy condos in a Scottsdale retirement community.

Following Chris Capuano's elbow injury, Doug Melvin said "he was less inclined to trade a starting pitcher."

That's probably a good thing, because Melvin said his telephone had been quiet anyway.

Brilliant.  Because of the injury, the Brewers are unlikely to make any deals with the teams that haven't been calling.  I've seen that before:

Lloyd Dobler: I got a question. If you guys know so much about women, how come you're here at like the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?
Joe: By choice, man.

There's a lot of bad pitching around the league.  The Brewers must be driving a hard bargain for teams to not even try to make a deal.  Then again, maybe the Rangers and the Blue Jays are happy with their pitching, and so there is no opportunity for Melvin to make a trade in his comfort zone.

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Manny Parra is scheduled to face Brett Tomko and the Royals in a night game, broadcast in 400k Grit-O-Vision by mlb.tv at 8:05 pm CDT.  I am not aware of any perceived slights or irritations related to the Royals, so maybe Ned will send some major league players out there behind Parra tonight.

You know the biblical story of Solomon and that baby he chopped in half?  I have a similar dilemma tonight.  The Brewer game starts at 8:05, but since that's my kids' bed time, that's also my MLB 2k8 time.  I just don't know whether to play the game or watch the game.

Decisions, decisions.

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Several people have mentioned that they play baseball video games, including MLB 2K8.  This is the first baseball game I've ever played, and while I'm getting the hang of it, some questions linger which don't seem to be addressed at either the Xbox Live forums or the 2k Sports forums.  It's time to leverage the BCB community!

I'll kick off with the question I'd most like answered -- can you view the box scores of previous games in Franchise Mode?

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Turns out there are ties in baseball.  The 14-6 Brewers are playing their 22nd game today at the Los Angeles Angels of Phoenix.

I saw more of the Cameron stats being tossed around today, and so I figured I'd look them up, especially the 1st-to-3rd stat.  He did lead the National League in advancing from 1st to 3rd on a single, and here's where that compares with some other players from both leagues (successful advances out of number of chances).

Jason Bartlett  14 of 27
Mike Cameron 15 of 23
Cuddyer 16 of 28
Damon  18 of 34
Dejesus 15 of 36
Chone Figgins 17 of 30
Granderson 14 of 39
Guerrero 15 of 32
Holliday 14 of 33
Torii Hunter 13 of 21
Aaron Miles 13 of 29
Albert Pujols 12 of 37
Jimmy Rollins 13 of 24
Ichiro 16 of 39
Swisher 15 of 32
Willits 14 of 43

He's definitely a good baserunner.  I don't why that necessarily makes him a good #2 guy, but it is nice to have good baserunners in the lineup.

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mlb.tv is carrying video of the White Sox at Brewers game, so we'll get to see Villanueva working today.  Capuano takes the mound against the Mariners in the other half of the split squad today, and since the team is split, he'll have some lackluster defense behind him.  Oh, who am I kidding?  It's the Brewers;  even with a full team the defense is lackluster.  While I'm a big fan of Villy, I wish the Seattle game had the video stream.  I'd like to see what Cappy looks like out there.

Ned is having a little trouble figuring out Gagne, and I think I know why.  What is he supposed to call him?  Eric-ie?  Gagne-ie?  He's messing up Yost's entire nickname scheme!  You'd never get that from Bennie or Bushie or Cappie, or even Ueckie!

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It's televised baseball day here in Brewer Country.  Ben Sheets and the Brewers visit Felix Hernandez and the Mariners at 3PM central time on channel 41 in Milwaukee.  At the same time on WGN, the Chicago Cubs send Ryan Theriot up against, what?  You say Theriot isn't pitching?  I thought he was so gritty he could do anything for that team.

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Dave Bush and Manny Parra get to show their stuff against Gil Meche today, following yet another good outing from Claudio Vargas.  It's basically a lock for Vargas to make the rotation, given that he's pitched well and as everyone likes to remind us, he's out of options.  As usual, the offense didn't disappoint Vargas in the 6-2 victory over the Padres.

Adrian Monk would be proud of the managers, as they've agreed to go an even 10 innings.

It turns out that both teams are looking to stretch out their pitchers (Gil Meche is slated to throw six innings for Kansas City) so an agreement was struck to play as many as 10 innings, regardless of the score.

UPDATE: It was a regular 9-inning game, and now that text is nowhere to be found on jsonline. I guess maybe an agreement wasn't reached, after all.

It's Claudio Vargas going up against Randy Wolf at 9:05PM central time, and for many it will be the first game you will see live, provided you can stay up for the whole thing.  The game will be carried on both mlb.tv and FSN, so check your local listings (Directv in Milwaukee has the game on channel 642).  Don't bother checking the Journal-Sentinel for information, though.  The Brewer game did not make the list of televised sporting events.  Way to stay relevant, guys.

UPDATE: I see that the JS has the Brewer game listed now. They still have a college basketball game listed at 10:30, so who knows what's going on over there.

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Jeff Suppan faces Micah Owings for at least a few innings today.  Since most of the team rested yesterday, I expect to see most of the regulars today, except maybe Prince will finally take a day off, and "crafty veteran" Kendall picked today as his one day off.  Apparently, you need several years in the league before you learn that the 2 hour bus ride to Tucson is no fun, because even BA and the Rock got it in on that story yesterday.

In other gritty news, Craig Counsell had one of those errors yesterday that broke up Cappy's perfect game.  Well, if you wade through all the excuses, maybe it wasn't a perfect game.  It's hard to say with all the blame being heaped in the defense.  The defense deserves that scorn, but I fail to see how Cappy can feel good about that outing when he gave up several hits to compound the damage.  Oh well.  The Fan Zone manager will be happy to hear that Ned is squarely behind Cappy.

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It's Carlos Villanueva going 4 innings, followed by 4 innings from Chris Capuano.  Capuano really needs a decent outing, and the Mariners may be kind enough to trot out a lot of minor leaguers in those late innings.

Apparently, newpapers' last remaining piece of exclusivity is access to the clubhouse and the lineup card.  Once jsonline sees fit to post one, I'll add it after the jump.

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It's your first-place Milwaukee Brewers hosting the lowly San Francisco Giants in another audio-only webcast at 3:05 central time (CDT or CST?  daylight savings sucks).

Maybe today we'll see shades of the lineup to come, where Ned takes a lot of research someone did into lineup optimization, and ignores everything except Kendall in the 9th spot.  This guy is on the right track, so I won't repeat what he's already written.

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We've ad a little to-do lately about projection systems and their accuracy.  Well, actually the to-do involved quite a bit more than that, but that part bored me.  I did realize that there doesn't seem to be any repository of projection data; at least not within a couple top google hits.  So, I put together a collection of the 2007 projections I have at hand:  PECOTA (from Baseball Prospectus 2007 & 2008), Bill James and The Hardball Times Annual Previews 2007 & 2008.  

Some of these were reasonably good, and some were laughably wrong (see Braun, Ryan in THT 2007 Preview).  There's a lot of good work that goes into these, but there's clearly a lot of room for improvement.  The Brewers, in particular, caused some trouble in 2007 due to the youth on the team, and thus the absence of performance data to draw on.

Poll

Which projection system do you prefer?

5%

Marcel

1 votes

0%

ZiPS

0 votes

40%

Miss Cleo

8 votes

15%

Bill James

3 votes

40%

PECOTA

8 votes

0%

HardBall Times

0 votes

0%

CHONE

0 votes

20 votes | Poll has closed

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A Brewer win today combined with a Padre loss to the Rangers will bring the Crew into a tie for first place in the Cactus League.  Since the game is so important, mlb.tv is sending the video streaming team.

I stopped by the Fan Zone in Miller Park yesterday, and if the stock of player jerseys is any indication, Chris Capuano and Derrick Turnbow are a lock to make the team out of Spring Training.  As a matter of fact, if you're looking for a white home jersey, those are your only options.  I expect the manager of the store is calling Ned every night to check on Capuano's status.

Here's a little something to pass the time until lineups are announced.

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I missed the game yesterday, seeing as I was at home working on the rec room and chasing kids around, and not in the relaxing confines of my cube.  I'm not sure that would go over so hot at review time...best move on.

The Brewers face Oakland today, and I have no idea who is playing.  As soon as a lineup hits the tubes of the Internet, I'll include it below the jump.

Yost commented on how Ryan Braun is exceeding his expectations in left field.  I have only been able to watch one game on mlb.tv so far, but what I've seen of Braun in left makes me wonder what those expectations are.  The few plays I've seen Braun make have led me to believe he's a playing at the same level as Carlos Lee, except he's a little more awkward.

Oh, and speaking of poor outfield play, I bet we see Gabe Gross in right today while Corey Hart takes in a tour of the Grand Canyon.  I'd also guess it'll be Tony Gwynn in center, with Joe Dillon at 3rd.

Update [2008-3-9 14:34:26 by Marty McSuperFly]:: How embarrassing. I didn't even realize there were 2 games today. Seattle comes to Maryvale, as well. Both games at 3:05 central.

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