SB Nation User Blog: Matt Bishoff

Bullpen MVP's

Matt Bishoff — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 18:33:22 -0000

All-Star selections are coming out today and there has been much talk has been about the Rays possible representation. The average MLB fan would probably credit the Rays improvement in the bullpen to the acquisition of Troy Percival. While Percy has been great as our closer, he has not been quite as good as two other Rays relievers. J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler have been the glue that has stuck this bullpen together and put the Rays in winning positions so many times. Many are even calling for Howell to represent the Rays in the All-Star game, but they should also be considering Wheeler's name.

Pitcher	K/BB	LOB%	OPS HLv
Wheeler	2	89	0.545
Howell	2.04	74	0.303

As can be seen in the chart above, both Wheeler and Howell have been outstanding up to this point in the season. Wheeler has been outstanding in terms of leaving runners on base. Expect some regression in this area from him in the second half, as the league average is around 75%. In the same regards you can expect Howell to get even better. The most impressive stat here has to be Howell's OPS against in high leverage situations. An OPS of .303 is not just impressive, but rather jaw-dropping. We have said before that "The Vulture" is a gamer, but it is even more evident after seeing this statistic. Wheeler's mark isn't too shabby either and he has seen 14 more high leverage plate appearances. You would expect Howell to show some regression in this category, but some pitchers have shown trends in the past to consistently pitch well in important situations. The difference between whether or not we become a playoff team may lay heavily on the performance of these two hurlers.

Do We Need to Make a Move?

Matt Bishoff — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:46:27 -0000

As the team has continued its success into July, the Rays name seems to find its way into more and more trade rumors. Every year you see teams that are making deadline moves to bolster themselves for a late-summer playoff run. With the Rays playing like they are, everyone is waiting to see what moves go down. I just wonder whether or not it is really necessary to make a deal.

Quite often in deadline deals you will see teams trading for bullpen help. After watching the Rays this season, do we really need to add any more arms to our bullpen. Even with Percival and Reyes out, we still have quite the formidable pen. Grant Balfour has come up from AAA and brought his success along with him. You also have to consider what we could get in return for our bullpen and at what cost. To add another big stopper to the bullpen, it is going to cost the Rays some of our farm depth, which we hold like Frodo and the ring. Would anyone we trade for really be an improvement over the likes of a Wade Davis, David Price, or Mitch Talbot?

I have also heard the idea floated around that we could use the help of a veteran starter to hold down the back end of our rotation. While the back of our rotation could possibly use some help, they have still been doing a good job thus far. With Garza coming on strong, this gives us a very solid 1,2,3 rotation to take into the playoffs, if the situations arises. Jackson and Sonnanstine have had their ups and downs, but as a pair have been above-average 4 and 5 pitchers. You also have to consider the possibility of seeing Price or Davis being added to the rotations late in the season. If Price continues to pitch like he has, he would most likely be an upgrade or equal in value to nearly anyone we would acquire. More importantly, it would allow the team to not shell out any of the guarded farm depth.

Position wise the team has been solid everywhere from 1-9. The one area where we could use help is possibly in the outfield. The need for a right-handed bat has become more and more clear. However, I do not think the situation is as pressing as it is made out to be. As I have noted in the past, we have received some of best production from the RF/DH slots. An upgrade for Gomes could definitely be found on the market, but we have to be cautious to not give up too much for a minimal upgrade. If the Rays do make a trade, this is where I feel they should look to upgrade, but they have to keep their eye on the future at all times.

I have read and heard many times that the Rays have to make a move and take advantage of their depth in the farm system. I think the best way to take advantage of our depth is to hold on to it and not share it with anyone else. If they can make a deal that improves the team by not risking any major assets, then they should absolutely make it. They should not make a deal just because they are in a playoff race. The team as is has won 52 games before Independence Day, and I think they have been doing just fine with the guys they've got.

Brutal Schedule

Matt Bishoff — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 03:06:18 -0000

This Rays team has been winning games like they never have before...and they have done it by going through the toughest route in all of baseball. Of the Rays 71 games this year, 60 have been against teams with a record above .500. The next closest are the Blue Jays and Mariners who have both played 51 games against teams with a record above .500. Through these 60 games against good teams, the Rays have gone a staggering 34-25. Compare this to the Blue Jays and Mariners who have gone 23-28 and 18-33 respectively.

For the record, the Red Sox have only played 42 "tough" games compared to the Rays 60. This shows the Rays haven't just been doing it in the toughest division in all of baseball, but also their out-of-division games have been against top teams as well. The difficulty of schedules doesn't always sort out evenly between teams, but a difference of 18 games with the Sox should at least tighten a little bit.

Looking at stats like these makes you realize how truly special this team really is. For a team that has this much young talent to lace up and bring it every night against top teams with no fear, shows you how exciting this team will be to watch for years to come. Any guesses as to our record if we had the Sox schedule?

We Like to Run

Matt Bishoff — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:50:08 -0000

The Rays have jumped out to a great start this season, but the best jump may be that of first to second. The Rays currently lead all of baseball in stolen bases with 72. The next closest team in the American League is the Red Sox with 58. The Rays are currently the only team in baseball that is averaging over one stolen base per game. Although we have the most stolen bases, we have also been thrown out more than any other team in the AL with 25. Our SB% is sitting at 74% which is right on the league average. The team has racked up the attempts by trying to run against a team as much as possible when they have a weak arm behind the plate.

The team has made four stolen base attempts in a single game five times this year. The chart above shows these five games. As can be seen, in three of these five games the catchers CS% was well below the league average of 26%. The only game in which the team ran poorly was against the Cardinals and the strong-armed Yadier Molina. This was by far our worst game on the basepaths, as this was the difference between a win and a loss. Through these five games we stole a total of 14 bases. The Detroit Tigers currently have 21 stolen bases through 63 games.

Although the team has been running like mad men, they have for the most part been taking calculated risks. Also, our leadoff guy only has three stolen bases and in the future we could possibly be running even more.

XM Radio Today

Matt Bishoff — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:37:57 -0000

I will be on XM Radio later today representing the site and talking Rays. It will be on MLB Homeplate channel 175. The host is Jeff Joyce. I am scheduled to come on at 2:25. If you are thirsty for some Rays coverage and have XM radio, tune in and check it out.

Pat is going to kill me for making a post while using a sentence for filler. Please spare my life Pat.

The Vulture is a Gamer

Matt Bishoff — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:49:49 -0000

Many people, including myself, wrote off J.P. Howell as someone who could be a contributing member to the ballclub this season. Coming into this season, Howell had a career WHIP over 1.60 and has never shown himself to be capable of pitching on the major league level. However, up to this point in the season Howell is sporting a WHIP under 1.15 and has vultured four wins like your fat uncle on the last piece of pecan pie at Thanksgiving. Has the switch to the bullpen caused this change, has he done something differently, or has he simply just been lucky?

If you ask any pitcher, they will tell you there is a different mental approach involved in coming out of the bullpen. Previously in his career, J.P. has been a starter who has been prone to give up the big hit at important situations. His OPS against for his career is .843 in high leverage situations, .792 in medium leverage situations, and .760 in low leverage situations. This shows he has not shown the ability to pitch well in high pressure situations throughout his career, but most of his career has been as a starter. Throughout this entire season out of the bullpen, we have seen a different J.P. who performs his best in high pressure situations. His OPS against for 2008 is .361 in high leverage situations, .422 in medium leverage situations, and .772 in low leverage situations. This guy is a stopper out of the bullpen. He has come in and gotten the big outs when the team has needed him most. Those that feel that the mental change from starter to bullpen has made him a better pitcher could make a valid argument based on these numbers.

Besides the obvious change from starter to the bullpen, what else has J.P. been doing differently to make himself better? When watching him pitch this season, it has been obvious that his best pitch was has been big breaking curveball. He has been deadly, when he has been able to spot that accurately. What will amaze you is that he has just recently begun throwing it on a consistent basis at the major league level. If you go back to 2005 when he was with the Royals, he threw his curveball only 1.3% of the time while lobbing up his fastball 61.3% of the time. However, this year he has thrown his curveball 20.7% of the time while only throwing his fastball 54.0% of the time. He went from not having his curveball as a viable pitch to having it be his go to strikeout pitch. This has also had an added effect on his fastball. Not only does throwing more offspeed make his fastball seem faster, but coming out of the pen has added more life to his fastball. The last two seasons his fastball averaged 82.7 mph while this season it has jumped up to 85.8 mph. He has also thrown his changeup much less, as it was never too effective before. His changeup was previously thrown 23.2% and has now dropped down to 9.2%. Instead of using an offspeed pitch with no movement, he now uses his curveball to mix with his fastball and has been quite deceptive for hitters.

For a pitcher to make such a great turnaround in just one season, any person who looks at stats must check to see how lucky they have been. The statistics show that Howell has been a bit lucky so far as his xBABIP has been .299 while his BABIP has been .254. Last season, his xBABIP was .348 with .391 as his BABIP. This shows he was unlucky during his stint last season. Although his luck has changed this season, it does not come close to covering the massive Ty Pennington-esque makeover. The fact that his xBABIP has dropped nearly .50 shows that he has been pitching much better with luck not being a factor. His small amount of good luck so far might lead to a slight regression in the future, but nothing major.

When wondering what is the reason that he has been so improved this year, I believe you have to account for all of the possible suggestions. The mental change from starter to the bullpen has suited him well. He has made changes in his approach and pitch selection. He also also been a bit lucky. When you add all of these things up, it explains how he has been able to transform into a great asset to the team. We can expect so see good production from Howell throughout the rest of the season in this capacity.

Ben Zobrist opted to AAA Durham as the Rays call up relief pitcher Grant Balfour. Hat tip to the...

Matt Bishoff — Fri, 30 May 2008 02:17:38 -0000

Ben Zobrist opted to AAA Durham as the Rays call up relief pitcher Grant Balfour. Hat tip to the always great Todd Kalas. Grant has a 0.38 ERA through 23.2 IP, while a K/BB ratio of 39/10.

2 Myths of the POWW

Matt Bishoff — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:12:58 -0000

These are just a couple of things that I have peeved me over the last couple days when dealing with stadium issues. One other tidbit that RJ showed me for those of you worried about attendance number:

"In 1991 the Braves went from 65 wins to 94 and their overall attendance jumped from 12k to 26k. Through May 27th of 1991 their home attendance was roughly 19k per game, ours is 18k per game."

1. The Team Could Come to Tampa - This is the biggest myth that I have heard during the whole stadium politics process. I have heard members of the POWW make the idea of the team moving to Tampa, if the new stadium is shot down, seem to be feasible. You can even hear Lee Nolan of the POWW say this in his interview on the Bobby Fenton show yesterday. You can find the podcast of this interview here . To move the team to Tampa the team would have to buy their way out of their remaining lease with St. Pete.

If this stadium proposal does not go through, the ownership group has been adamant that they will not stay in the Trop for much longer. If the team is going to fork over the funds to buy out the lease, they will move the team to the place that will be the best investment for the team. That will not be Tampa! When I interviewed Aaron Sharockman, he said that he feels there is no chance at all of this team moving to Tampa. This is coming from the person who I think is the more informed than anyone on this topic. No matter how much many of us might want it, this team is not coming to Tampa anytime soon.

2. Stadium Would Have Negative Impact on Business -

"A common misconception is that a new downtown stadium is that a new downtown stadium would somehow be good for local business. In fact, a new waterfront ballpark combined with a huge retail center where the Trop is now would have a negative impact on downtown businesses, many of them already struggling."

This quote is taken directly from the front page of the POWW official website. First notice the word in that paragraph that I have put in bold. They didn't use "could", rather that use "would". They say "would" as if they can guarantee that this stadium would have a negative impact on downtown business. If you click through, the evidence that they show to back this statement is laughable.

"Study after study has shown the myth that sports stadiums are good for local businesses to be just that, a myth."

This is how they start their argument, yet they do not state one single study on the website that has shown this to be true. This past semester in school I studied facility funding in a graduate level class. There have been many different studies done on this topic and the results vary. The ultimate conclusion is that it is a case by case situation.

Currently at Rays games, the stadium is surrounded by parking. With parking being a huge issue with the new stadium, it is clear that there might be a walk on the way to and fro the games. This is a downtown area that is filled with businesses that will be passed by 15,000 extra people 80 times a year.

"There is a basic concept in Economics called Opportunity Cost, which occurs when people spend time and money on one thing and are therefore unable to spend that same time and money on something equally desirable. It's a fundamental concept.

But they want us to believe there somehow won't be any opportunity cost when it comes to the new stadium, that both time and money will magically become more abundant, just because there is now a new thing to spend them on. Not likely."

This is the last point I will tackle on this topic. They use opportunity cost as their main argument as to why the stadium would be a disaster for local business. Forgetting that they show no statistics to back this, they completely ignore the largest opportunity cost. The opportunity cost of losing the team, which could happen if this proposal is not passed.

According to the Transportation and Parking Study, 46% of season ticket holders come to games via a bridge over the bay. What is the opportunity cost of these residents from outside of St. Pete that would be spending their money elsewhere with no team in the area, over what they would be spending in St. Pete if there were a new stadium. The 46% is just for season ticket holders. One would expect that more single game purchases would come from tourists and visitors from the other side of the Bay, which would make the opportunity cost even more for St. Pete. The same money will be available, but consumers would have a choice to spend that money in Tampa or St. Pete

Is BJ's Lack of Power a Problem?

Matt Bishoff — Mon, 26 May 2008 14:44:48 -0000

Last season, BJ Upton became the superstar type of player that the team has waited for him to become. He hit 24 homeruns last year to assist him on his way to an .894 OPS. His breakout season has given fans expectations of a power hitter to bat in our three-hole. However, Bossman Jr. only has 3 homeruns to this point, which ties him with Shawn Riggans. Riggans has reached that mark in over 125 less at-bats.

Although he hasn't been hitting the homeruns, he has still been driving the ball into the gaps. If you extrapolate his current data to the amount of at-bats he had last season, he would finish with 37 doubles. These 37 doubles would be 12 more than he hit last season. Homeruns would be a welcomed addition to his repertoire this season, but he is still slugging the ball over .430. Some of his decrease in power might be explained by his shoulder problems. Even though he insists it did not bother him, you could see a noticeable difference in his swing after the injury. He seems to be back to full health now, but for a week or two after that injury he seemed to be laboring at the plate. Another reason may simply be poor luck, as his homerun/fly ball ratio has come down to 6.4% after 19.5% last season.

Even if his slugging has gone down he has improved his game in other areas. He has become one of the best guys in all of baseball at getting on-base. He currently leads the team with his .398 mark, and is 7th in all of the American League. The main reason for this has been due to a improvement on an already great plate approach. His biggest problem last season was his strikeout rate. Striking out as much as he does isn't really an issue when you are getting on base at such a high rate, but he has decreased his strikeout percentage from 32.5% to 25.3%. This decrease in strikeouts has lead to an increase in walks as his BB% has risen from 12.1% to 14.0%.

His ability to get on-base combined with the teams aggressive nature has also led to higher stolen base totals. He is on pace to steal 35 paces, which would be a big improvement of his current career high of 22. Although he has been suspect at best with his baserunning, he has still allowed for his natural athleticism to carry him towards success.

To answer the title of the post, you can't really say his lack of power is too big of a problem. He is bound to pick up some more homers, but even if he doesn't he is still having a good season. He would clearly be a better player if he could hit some more longballs, but even without them he stands out as a great player. With Pena seeming to come out of his slumber, this should lead to BJ seeing even more good pitches to hit, which should only inflate his numbers more.

Price Set for First Start

Matt Bishoff — Thu, 22 May 2008 15:00:37 -0000

Price Set for First Start

David Price will make his first minor league start tonight at Vero Beach. The Clearwater Threshers will be in town to take on the Devil Rays. On an off night for the Major League team, what's better than going to check out our prized prospect? It is $1 beer night at Vero Beach, which should bring out a boisterous crowd to cheer on Price.