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Matt Dover

Nov 05, 2009 May 31, 2012 409 3278

I write part-time for Roll 'Bama Roll, but I work full-time in Chicago. Prior to moving here in the summer of 2011, I spent two years in grad school at Harvard University and two years working in New York City with the Teach For America program. I am a proud 2007 graduate of The University of Alabama and a native of Jasper, Alabama.

I grew up as a diehard fan of the Alabama Crimson Tide, the school where both of my parents graduated. My dad took me to every single home football game from age six onward, as well as several basketball games growing up. To this day, no matter where I am, I never miss an Alabama football or basketball game. I'm also an avid follower of the U.S. national soccer team, having fallen in love with that sport as well after attending a few games in person.

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Five-star prospect Devonta Pollard, a 6-foot-7, 190-pound forward from Porterville, Miss., will make his college choice Friday during a 5 p.m. ceremony at his high school, Pollard's mother, Jessie, confirmed to the Tuscaloosa bureau. Along with Alabama, Pollard will have three other hats on the table: Missouri, Georgetown and Texas.

5-star basketball recruit Devonta Pollard to choose college Friday; Alabama makes his final 4

Looks like the entire saga may come to a conclusion on Friday evening. A lot riding on this decision for Anthony Grant and Alabama's program, as Pollard has been the staff's top target for the 2012 class all along. Hope for the best.

1 day ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 12 comments

Roll 'Bama Roll Tide gets commitment from state's top junior hoops star

A lot of the focus will remain on senior target Devonta Pollard, but Friday's announcement by junior Jimmie Taylor provides further evidence that Anthony Grant is slowly but surely upgrading the basketball talent in Tuscaloosa.

Anthony Grant and the Crimson Tide basketball team received a huge commitment on Friday from 6'9" forward Jimmie Taylor of Greensboro. Taylor is considered to be one of the top 30 juniors in the entire country, and if his rating holds through his senior year, he would be the highest rated player to come out of the state since former Kentucky star DeMarcus Cousins.

Taylor had already received offers from most SEC schools in addition to Georgetown and Miami, and is also being recruited by Kentucky and North Carolina among others. The key term there is "is"--even though most top high school basketball players sign before their senior season begins, that date is still six months away for Taylor and other juniors, and undoubtedly these same schools will continue to recruit him until that date, so nothing is guaranteed here.

Still, the commitment is a great sign, and helps to shape up what will be a very important 2013 class for the program. Another forward, 6'8" Shannon Hale of Johnson City, Tennessee, has already committed to being a part of the Tide's 2013 class. With as many as four or five scholarships to give in that class, and the staff still recruiting several highly-regarded prospects, there is sure to be more news to come between now and November's early signing period regarding the 2013 basketball recruiting class.

Whatever happens in that class, however, none of those players will be eligible to suit up next season. It's a different story for the 2012 class, though. As usual, most top high school players signed before the season began, but since the Tide had only one senior on this year's roster, Anthony Grant and staff held off during the early signing period and didn't sign anyone, continuing to hold a spot for the staff's top target, 5-star forward Devonta Pollard of Portersville, Mississippi.

Pollard is considered to be among the top 25 seniors in the county, and his signature would probably signify the biggest Alabama basketball recruiting coup since Mo Williams was signed out of the same state a decade earlier. However, Pollard has dragged his recruitment into literally the final days of the late signing period. Remember, most seniors sign before the season, and most of those who don't sign toward the beginning of the month-long late signing period that runs from mid-April to mid-May. The late signing period ends on Wednesday, and at this point only three of the nation's top 60 seniors have yet to sign--and Pollard is still one of them.

Again, Pollard has seemingly been the staff's #1 target all along to assume the scholarship spot vacated by the expected graduation of senior JaMychal Green, and as such they have been heavily recruiting him literally for years at this point. However, many believed the 6'7" wing player to be a Mississippi State lean for most of his recruitment, but the departure of coach Rick Stansbury following last season's debacle seemingly removed them from the picture.

Pollard is now reportedly down to four finalists for his signature: Alabama, Texas, Georgetown, and Missouri. Pollard has kept extremely tight-lipped and to this date has still not even announced when he will make his decision public. Many recruiting experts believe Alabama to be the favorite, especially after Missouri filled their final scholarship spot and Georgetown lost the assistant coach who had been most involved in Pollard's recruitment, but Texas and ace recruiter Rick Barnes may still pose a major threat.

If Pollard signs a letter of intent anywhere, he'll have to do so by Wednesday's deadline. However, as some have pointed out, a player doesn't technically have to sign a LOI. If a school still has scholarship spots (and Alabama has not just one but now three of them after the somewhat unexpected departures of Tony Mitchell and Charles Hankerson) then a player could conceivably just enroll at that school in the fall and use one of the scholarships without ever signing anything or even making a decision fully public. If Pollard takes the usual route and signs with a school, we'll all find out by Wednesday at the latest if Anthony Grant has indeed inked a major talent to boost next year's squad, or if all this effort will have been for naught. But if Pollard elects to go the unorthodox route of sidestepping the LOI process, who knows how long this saga could drag on.

8 comments  | 

A shooting guard who had narrowed his choices to Alabama and Florida will sign today with Florida, according to The Ledger of Lakeland, Fla.

Devon Walker, a star at Winter Haven (Fla.) High School, will play for the Gators, his dad told the newspaper Thursday.

Don Kausler, Jr., al.com

The late signing period for college basketball is underway, and the Tide learned in the last day that it will miss out on one of its major targets to SEC rival Florida and Billy Donovan.

The Tide's biggest target, though, 5-star forward Devonta Pollard, is still available and will decide soon between Alabama, Missouri, Texas, and Georgetown, with many believing Alabama has a strong shot.

about 1 month ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 6 comments

"7. Alabama

Football: Let’s see: two national titles in the last three years; and it could have been three in four if a certain quarterback everyone thinks can’t throw didn’t make three perfect third-down touchdown throws in the 2008 SEC Championship Game. And—yep, and—no one recruits better.

Basketball: Anthony Grant took a stand this year with suspensions of key players, and still found a way to get a young Alabama team in the tournament. Once Florida coach Billy Donovan’s top assistant, Grant won big at VCU and will take the Tide deeper in the tournament down the road.

The future: How much potential is there? The Tide could jump all the way to No.1 if Grant does what most think he will—and if Nick Saban continues to dominate all things college football."

via Sporting News

2 months ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 29 comments

Roll 'Bama Roll Alabama v. Creighton: NCAA Tournament Game Thread

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Time 12:40 pm CST
Location Greensboro, NC
Venue Greensboro Coliseum
TV TBS
Stream NCAA March Madness Online
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats

ESPN GameCast

The Tide returns to March Madness today with a tough opening round matchup against the Creighton Blue Jays. Chime in here with comments and updates. ROLL TIDE!



1027 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll NCAA Tournament Day 1: Afternoon & Evening Thread

March Madness gets fully underway today. Chime in here with all comments and updates on today's afternoon games as we count down to Alabama-Creighton tomorrow afternoon.

Higher Seed Lower Seed Channel Time (CST)
Murray St. Colorado St. CBS 11:15
Kansas St. Southern Miss truTV 11:40
Louisville Davidson TBS 12:40
Wisconsin Montana TNT 1:10
Marquette BYU CBS 1:45
Syracuse UNC-Asheville truTV 2:10
New Mexico Long Beach St. TBS 3:10
Vanderbilt Harvard TNT 3:40

Update: we'll just keep this thread going for evening games. See lineup below.

Higher Seed Lower Seed Channel Time (CST)
Kentucky Western Kentucky
TBS 5:50
Wichita St.
VCU CBS 6:15
Gonzaga West Virginia
TNT 6:20
Baylor South Dakota St.
TruTV 6:27
Iowa St.
UConn TBS 8:20
Indiana New Mexico St.
CBS 8:45
Ohio St.
Loyola (Md.)
TNT 8:50
UNLV Colorado TruTV 3:40

180 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll NCAA Tournament Game Breakdown: Alabama v. Creighton

Antoine Young and the Creighton offense will present a huge challenge.

The 2012 NCAA Tournament will begin in full today, meaning we are now just a day away from Alabama's long-awaited return to March Madness. In one of the most anticipated matchups of the opening round, the Crimson Tide will take on the Creighton Blue Jays of the Missouri Valley Conference. Earlier this week we broke down the Blue Jays' roster, and today we will delve deeper into how the two teams match up.

When Alabama has the ball

All the talk among the national media leading up to this game has been about the classic "offense versus defense" matchup featuring Creighton's top-10 offense against Alabama's top-10 defense. It's understandable this matchup is getting all the media hype, but the majority of the game will be played when Alabama's offense goes up against Creighton's defense (Alabama's offensive possessions are sure to last longer on average than Creighton's). Alabama's ability to score consistently against a mediocre Creighton defense will have as big an impact on the outcome of the game, if not bigger, than Alabama's ability to stop the Creighton offense.

Advantages for Creighton

Creighton has one very crucial advantage in this matchup: rebounding. The Blue Jays are not a particularly big team, usually playing with just one post player at a time in their lineup, but they manage to rebound at an extremely high rate on the defensive end. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive rebounding rate, rarely surrendering offensive boards or 2nd-chance points. Alabama has been fairly average as an offensive rebounding team, so this is a clear advantage for the Blue Jays.

Creighton has been very effective at avoiding fouls on the defensive end. They rank 32nd nationally in opponents' free throw attempt rate, meaning they rarely send opposing players to the charity stripe. Seeing as how the Alabama offense has been below average at generating free throw attempts, it is safe to say Alabama could have a difficult time getting to the line against the Blue Jays.

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14 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll First look at the Creighton Blue Jays

We're just three short days away from the Crimson Tide's return to the NCAA Tournament. As we count down the hours, we'll begin taking a closer look at Bama's opening round opponent, the Creighton Blue Jays of the Missouri Valley Conference. In the next couple of days we'll look at how the two teams match up overall, but to kick off our coverage we'll begin by taking a look at the Creighton players.

The All-American

#3 - Doug McDermott - 6'7" - Sophomore - Wing

If you haven't already heard of McDermott, you haven't been paying attention to college basketball this year. I've seen a lot said/written about him this season, but one fun fact stood out most: in the history of the Missouri Valley Conference (one of the strongest basketball conferences outside the "BCS" conferences), only two players have scored more points than McDermott in their first two seasons. Their names? Oscar Robertson and Larry Bird.

McDermott averages over 23 points/game, and he does so in a variety of ways. He is one of the rare players in college basketball who can really play almost any position on the floor. For starters, he is a 6-7 player who is deadly from the 3-point arc. He makes 1.6 treys each game while shooting an unbelievable 49%. But that only accounts for about 5 of his 23 points. He can also handle the ball like a guard and drive to the hole and can pull up and knock down mid-range jumpers as well. What really sets him apart though is that he has the size and skills to play as a big man too. He averages over 8 rebounds/game (more than anyone on Alabama's team) and can score effectively in the low post. Really, there's not anything he can't do on offense, and he's a matchup nightmare for any one player to try and guard.

McDermott is expected to be named an All-American at year end, and deservedly so. He is one of the best players in college basketball. To try and give some perspective for just how good a scorer this guy is and just how much 23 points/game is in college basketball, consider that when he goes for 20 in a game, it is an off night and he just brought down his scoring average. Alabama won't be able to stop him, but they can try to make sure he doesn't beat Alabama all by himself.

The Big Man

#0 - Greg Echenique - 6'9" - Junior - Forward

Creighton has a lot of size on the perimeter, but usually just plays with only one true big man. For the majority of the game, that role is filled by Echenique, a Venezuelan native with a huge frame and wide body. Echenique isn't particularly explosive as an athlete but he is very effective using his 270 pounds to rule the paint on both ends. He is second on the team in total rebounds with 7.4/game, but he leads the team in rebounds/minute. He is also third on the team in scoring with 9.8 points/game.

Echenique will be an interesting matchup for Alabama inside. The best comparision in the SEC is probably Mississippi State's Renardo Sidney, as the two players have similar size and skills. The difference is that Echenique is probably in better shape. He's an effective inside player, but nothing that Alabama hasn't faced before in SEC play.

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25 comments  | 

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The wait is over. The Tide is returning to March Madness.

photo courtesy UA media relations via @AlexS_ESPN

3 months ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 30 comments

Roll 'Bama Roll NCAA Tournament Selection Show: Open Thread

2012logo_medium

It's here, folks. Selection Sunday. CBS will be continuing their coverage following the B1G Tournament title game leading right up to the Selection Show itself beginning at 5:00 pm CST. Tune in and chime in here with comments and updates.

One of America's biggest sporting events is upon us, and after a roller coaster season, the Tide has given us the chance to see our team take part in this spectacle once again. This evening we'll find out where Alabama will land in the bracket, and who the Tide will be forced to challenge when the Madness gets fully underway later this week.

Hope for the best, and Roll Tide!

Note: CBS will be filling in the bracket live here

222 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Selection Sunday has arrived: what to look for

JaMychal Green's wait for an NCAA bid will end today.

Selection Sunday is upon us. And for the first time in way too long, the Alabama Crimson Tide will hear its name called when CBS airs its NCAA Tournament Selection Show nationally at 5:00 pm CST.

For many, the only question now is, what seed will the Tide get? Obviously that's an important question, but the real thing to look for when the committee's work is unveiled should be, what are Bama's matchups? After all, seeding only matters to the extent that it dictates who you play and when you play them.

When looking at potential matchups I think we can all agree the key is to think about who Alabama would face in the first two rounds. This team has too many limitations to think about the Final Four, but with the right matchups and a pair of good performances, a trip to the Sweet 16 is a attainable enough goal to think about matchups in the first and second rounds later this week.

Here's what we know: as of Saturday, Alabama is projected to be a 9 seed by most bracket experts. Now, these guys are pretty good at what they do and rarely miss by much. However, they are still trying to predict how human beings will make decisions, so there's certainly a good bit of uncertainty involved. That said, I think that uncertainty is limited. I don't see any way Alabama gets as high as a 7 seed; an 8 seed is probably as high as possible. On the flip side, I don't see Alabama falling all the way to an 11 either; a 10 seed is probably as low as possible. Hence, with about 95% confidence, I can say Alabama will end up somewhere between an 8 and a 10 seed, with a 9 seed being the most likely outcome.

As we all know, if Alabama gets an 8 seed, a 9 seed will be the opening round opponent, while of course a 9 seed would mean an 8 seed as an opening round opponent. In either case, a 1 seed would await in the second round should the Tide get a victory in the opener. If Alabama were to drop to a 10 seed, a 7 seed will be the opening round opponent, with a 2 seed likely awaiting in the second round.

Given the above information, we can feel pretty confident that Alabama's opening round opponent will be a 7-9 seed. Here's the rub: there is a lot of variation between the relative strengths of teams seeded in the 7-9 range. Some teams are much stronger than others, and were it not for a few fluke results in close games or the peculiarities of the RPI and the committee's selection criteria, they could easily find themselves as high as 4 or 5 seeds. Meanwhile, due to the same fluke results and/or peculiarities, others might not actually be as strong as even lower seeds. Additionally, matchups are very key. With a team like Alabama that does some things extremely well and some things relatively poorly, stylistic matchups are crucial to Alabama's chances of victory.

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17 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Tide looking at likely 9 seed ahead of Selection Sunday

Photo

We're now only one day away from Selection Sunday, and the Tide is considered a lock by virtually every bracket expert out there. This has been probably the most roller coaster season in memory for this program, but Alabama fans should take a moment today or tomorrow if they haven't already and let this sink in: the Alabama Crimson Tide will be back in March Madness next week, and regardless of where we're seeded that's a real, real good feeling. Roll Tide to that.

Below we'll take a very brief look at where Bama stands today according to the experts, and tomorrow morning we'll have a full-blown analysis as well as an examination of potential opponents the Tide could face.

Latest RPI rankings

Latest bracket projections

We've been following these three bracketologists all season, and for the first time ever, they're all in agreement: Alabama stands at a 9 seed right now. That is unlikely to change much between now and tomorrow because there simply aren't many teams around Alabama still playing this weekend. Again, we'll have full-blown coverage ready to go tomorrow morning. Selection Sunday is now mere hours away. Roll Tide.

11 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Alabama v. Florida: SEC Tournament Game Thread

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Time 2:30 pm CST
Location New Orleans, LA
Venue New Orleans Arena
TV SEC Network and ESPNU
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats

ESPN GameCast

The Tide continues on in SEC Tournament action today, hoping to earn a berth in the semifinals and help secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament by taking down the Florida Gators.

(Note on TV: Apparently the game is being shown on the SEC Network in areas where available, and on ESPNU nationally. However it may be blacked out on ESPNU in areas that carry the SEC Network.)



713 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Alabama v. South Carolina: SEC Tournament Game Thread

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Time 2:30 pm CST
Location New Orleans, LA
Venue New Orleans Arena
TV SEC Network
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats ESPN GameCast


The Tide opens up play in the SEC Tournament with a chance to get payback for its worst loss of the season. Chime in here with comments and updates. Roll Tide!



503 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll SEC Tournament Preview

New Orleans Arena will look something like this.

The SEC Tournament gets underway tomorrow in New Orleans, with eleven games in four days, concluding with one team cutting down the nets just hours before the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Below are some key questions to look for this week:

What happens if Bama falls to South Carolina? Alabama finished 5th place in the SEC this year, meaning the Tide just missed the cut for a bye on Thursday. Bama's reward for being the highest seed to play on Thursday? Facing the Gamecocks, who finished dead last in the league with a 2-14 conference record. As for Bama's chances of advancing in the SEC Tournament, this is indeed a reward, but as for Alabama's NCAA Tournament seeding, this game does Alabama absolutely no good. A win won't help Alabama's seeding even one iota, as a win over a team ranked nearly 200th in the RPI isn't going to leapfrog Alabama over any teams currently projected to be 7 or 8 seeds. A loss to such a team, however, would be devastating.

Right now Alabama's loss to South Carolina is by far the biggest blemish on the Tide's resume. A second loss to the Gamecocks would raise serious red flags for the selection committee. It is doubtful this would push Bama all the way out of the field, but it would push Alabama down fairly close to the cut line and might even put the Tide in danger of getting placed in one of the play-in games. Some fans have pointed out (correctly, I will admit) that this could potentially be a good thing, as a 10 or 11 seed often gives a team a better chance of advancing to the Sweet 16 than an 8 or 9 seed. As a cautious Alabama fan, though, I know I want no part in playing with that fire. There may not be a great chance of Alabama missing the field or getting put in the play-in game with a loss to South Carolina, but it's a chance nonetheless and not one I think we want to take.

How high can Bama climb in the seeding with a strong performance in New Orleans? Surviving the South Carolina game on Thursday but then losing to Florida on Friday would leave the Tide's resume pretty static, possibly even dropping Bama a seed or so. But what if Alabama can take down the Gators? Beating Florida, projected to be around a 6 or 7 seed, would definitely be a big feather in Bama's cap, possibly even becoming the 2nd-best win on the resume behind the win over Wichita State, who are projected around a 4 or 5 seed. Getting this win should at minimum keep Alabama in the 8/9 range, and would give the Tide a very good shot at possibly moving up to a 7 seed depending on what other teams do, which would allow Bama to avoid playing a 1 seed in the 2nd round of the Big Dance.

Of course, if Alabama does get beyond Florida, Kentucky would in all likelihood be the Tide's opponent on Saturday (does anyone really give Arkansas or LSU--both slumping at the moment--a chance at the upset Friday?). Being the first team to beat the #1 Wildcats in over 20 games would be big beyond words. At that point, a 7 seed would seem a guarantee and Bama would probably be in the conversation for a coveted 6 seed. At any rate, if Bama wants to get any higher than a 7 seed, a win over the Wildcats will probably be required. To feel assured of a 6 seed, Alabama might need to win the whole SEC Tournament.

Can anyone stop Kentucky? The Cats went through conference play with a very rare 16-0 mark. Whether they can top it off with yet another SEC Tournament title most likely depends on their own mentality. They already have the SEC championship for this season, they already have a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament sewed up, so many are asking, "what does Kentucky have to play for?" You could argue the #1 overall seed is at stake between Kentucky and Syracuse, but really that matters very little as both teams will get to play close to home through the first two weekends of the NCAA Tournament. If Kentucky comes out flat and uninspired, they could certainly fall victim to one of the teams in the top half of the league under the right circumstances.

If the Cats do come focused and hungry, though, they're still a very good bet to win the whole thing. New Orleans is a little further from Big Blue country than typical SEC Tournament sites Atlanta and Nashville, but still, you know the vast majority of New Orleans Arena is going to be packed with blue as thousands upon thousands of Kentucky fans create a virtual home atmosphere for the Cats. That combined with the fact that there are no sure-fire top-15 type teams in the league might make it very difficult to wager on the field against the Cats in this one.

What do the SEC bubble teams need to do? The SEC team most squarely on the bubble entering the SEC Tournament in Mississippi State. The Bulldogs limped to the finish in league play but managed to crack .500 after knocking off lowly South Carolina and slumping Arkansas in the final week. Most bracketologists have them as one of the very last teams in the field right now, so they can't afford to fall any further. This means at minimum the Bulldogs need to get a win in their opener against a Georgia team ranked just outside the RPI top 100 on Thursday night. Lose that one and they are likely done. Winning that but then losing to Vanderbilt on Friday night would probably give them a good shot, but they may not be a lock and may be sentenced to the play-in game. If they can get through Georgia and then beat projected 6 or 7 seed Vanderbilt on Friday night that should seal the deal for them.

Two other SEC teams will be coming to New Orleans with very interesting resumes. Tennessee is probably the most interesting. They appear to be a carbon copy of Alabama last season: miserable results in pre-conference play followed by very solid results in conference play. Like Alabama last year, though, they probably need to get at least to the final to book their spot. They will open on Friday night against the winner of the Ole Miss-Auburn game. If they can advance in that one and then beat the Vanderbilt/Mississippi State/Georgia semifinalist on Saturday, it just might be enough to get them in, especially if that second win came against a projected tournament team like Vanderbilt or Mississippi State.

The third team to keep an eye on is Ole Miss. They haven't gotten much bubble talk this season, but they quietly managed to get to .500 in league play and have a strong enough RPI. What they are lacking are big wins, but if they can survive Auburn on Thursday night and then take down Tennessee in what would be a virtual bubble elimination game, they might could book a spot with a big win over a projected tournament team like Vanderbilt or Mississippi State in the semifinals on Saturday. Whatever happens with these bubble teams, though, it's pretty clear the most interesting action for neutral fans will be in the bottom half of the bracket, where all three bubble teams reside and where just about anyone could emerge and make a run to the final.

34 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Tide looking at 8 or 9 seed heading into conference tourney week

Photo

We're now only six days away from Selection Sunday, and the Tide is looking very likely to land a bid. Here is a quick update from today:

Latest RPI rankings

Latest bracket projections

So it appears as though bracket experts think Bama is still pretty safely in the field, despite the loss at Ole Miss. Now, there is still a lot of basketball to be played over the next six days. Some teams (including Alabama) could play potentially as many as four games during that period, so a lot can change. That said, according to these bracketologists, there are at least a dozen teams between Alabama at the at-large cut-off, which is usually a 12-seed, meaning it would take something pretty drastic for Alabama to get passed by a dozen or more teams.

However, losing to South Carolina, now 191st in the RPI, would be something drastic. If that happens, the Tide will surely plummet in the committee's eyes. Would it be enough to knock Alabama all the way out of the field? Probably not, but it's possible if a bunch of teams behind Alabama have a good week and a few teams not projected as at-large contenders "steal" automatic bids away from teams who are at-large contenders by winning conference tournaments.

If Alabama can get though the Gamecocks, though, it would be pretty impossible--assuming all these experts are correct about the Tide's standing now--for Alabama not to make it in. The question is, what seed? Obviously that depends on the wins Alabama gets in the SEC Tournament in New Orleans this week. I think a pretty safe assumption though is that getting above the 8/9 range would take at minimum beating both South Carolina and Florida. If Alabama has any hopes of avoiding the dreaded 8/9 game, aside from the Tide dropping even lower either due to a loss to South Carolina or simply due to the committee's judgment, the Tide needs to get at least two wins in New Orleans this week.

12 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Alabama @ Ole Miss: Game Thread

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Time 3:00 pm CST
Location Oxford, MS
Venue Tad Smith Coliseum
TV SEC Network
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats ESPN GameCast


The Tide wraps up the regular season with a tough road game at Ole Miss. Chime in here with comments and updates. Roll Tide!

424 comments  | 

Roll 'Bama Roll Tide travels to Oxford for regular season finale

Terrance Henry leads a dangerous and physical Ole Miss frontcourt.

The Crimson Tide basketball team will close out the regular season with a road trip to Oxford, Mississippi, to take on the Ole Miss Rebels. Tip off is set for 3:00 pm CST with the game televised regionally on the SEC Network and streamed outside the region on ESPN3.

More than likely, Alabama is safely in the NCAA Tournament field, and the Tide's SEC Tournament seeding is more likely to be determined by the result of the Vanderbilt-Tennessee game than the Alabama's own game on Saturday. Still, there is plenty to play for. As for the Tide's chase of a bye in the SEC Tournament, a win would make it more likely for Alabama to get that coveted 4th seed should Tennessee beat Vanderbilt. More importantly, though, the game offers a big opportunity to get a road win over a team currently in the top 60 of the RPI. This type of win would provide a really nice boost to Bama's RPI and overall NCAA Tournament resume, and would put the Tide in a position to possibly move beyond the 8/9 seed range for the NCAA Tournament with a win or two in the SEC Tournament next week. A loss, meanwhile, would make it very difficult to climb beyond the 8/9 range, and if the loss is followed up by a loss early in the SEC Tournament, it would likely drop Bama's seeding to the very bottom of the at-large pool and might, with a loss to lowly South Carolina, even cause more than a few anxious moments for Alabama on Selection Sunday.

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7 comments  | 

I was a guest once again on this week's al.com Alabama basketball podcast with host Matt Scalici. We went in-depth into Bama's positioning for the NCAA Tournament and discussed not only possible seeding, but also which seed lines might be more favorable for the Tide's chances in March Madness.

3 months ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 0 comments

Roll 'Bama Roll SEC Tournament seeding possibilities

Trevor Lacey and the Tide will grab either the 4th or 5th seed for next week's SEC Tournament, depending on this weekend's results.

The SEC Tournament seedings are starting to become a bit more clear. Alabama will be either the 4th or 5th seed. That may not seem like a big difference, but it is the difference between getting a bye and avoiding the risk for disaster, and having to face a South Carolina team that is on the verge of falling out of the RPI top 200--a scenario that would put the Tide's 2012 NCAA Tournament resume at serious risk while offering no upside whatsover. In fact, even beating South Carolina would likely make the Tide's RPI go down and would be a huge hit to Bama's SOS numbers. The bottom line is simple: getting the 4th seed rather than the 5th is unequivocally a good thing for Alabama.

There are four possible scenarios that will decide Bama's seeding position:

Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt. In this scenario, Alabama is guaranteed to get the 4th seed. If the Tide wins at Ole Miss, it will finish 4th with a better record than every team in the SEC except for Kentucky, Florida, and Vanderbilt (all of those teams hold tiebreakers over Alabama, so 4th is the best the Tide can do). Even if the Tide were to lose at Ole Miss, Alabama would still get the 4th seed thanks to holding the tiebreaker over Tennessee. If Alabama gets the 4th seed in this scenario, the Tide would face the winner of Thursday's Tennessee-South Carolina game in the quarterfinals on Friday afternoon.

Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Alabama loses at Ole Miss. In this scenario, the Tide is guaranteed to get the 5th seed. Alabama would have a worse record than Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, but a better record than everyone else in the league. If Alabama gets the 5th seed in this scenario, the Tide would face South Carolina in the first round on Thursday afternoon, and advance to play the 4th seed (would be Florida if they lose to Kentucky this weekend, otherwise would be Vanderbilt) on Friday afternoon with a win against South Carolina in the opener.

Tennessee and Alabama both win, and Florida beats Kentucky. In this scenario, Alabama would finish in a 3-way tie with Vanderbilt and Tennessee for 3rd place, with Kentucky and Florida taking the top seeds. In this 3-way tiebreaker, Alabama would finish 2nd among the 3 teams thanks to having a 1-1 record against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, meaning the Tide would claim the 4th seed (Vanderbilt would be the 3rd seed thanks to a 2-1 record against Alabama and Tennessee, and Tennessee would be the 5th seed thanks to a 1-2 record against Alabama and Vanderbilt). If Alabama gets the 4th seed in this scenario, the Tide would face the winner of Thursday's Tennessee-South Carolina game in the quarterfinals on Friday afternoon.

Tennessee and Alabama both win, and Florida loses to Kentucky. In this scenario, Alabama would finish in a 4-way tie with Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee for 2nd place, with Kentucky taking the top seed. Ironically, even though Alabama would be tied for 2nd place, this scenario would not be a good one for the Tide. Alabama would finish last among the 4 teams in this tie with a 1-2 record against Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, meaning Bama would be forced to take the 5th seed. In this scenario, the Tide would face South Carolina in the first round on Thursday afternoon, and advance to play 4th seed Florida on Friday afternoon with a win against South Carolina in the opener.

In all of these scenarios, Alabama will be on the same side of the bracket as Kentucky, so the Tide would have to get through the #1 ranked Wildcats in the semifinals unless the 'Cats fall victim to a major upset in their opener on Friday against the 8th or 9th seed.

Most importantly, though, Alabama fans should be looking to avoid a game with South Carolina that is virtually guaranteed to hurt Alabama's computer numbers (the biggest strength of Bama's resume) regardless of result, and that will be a major risk if the Tide drops the game. The best way to wrap up that 4th seed is simply for Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt this weekend. Let's hope for that...and of course an Alabama victory at Ole Miss, that would help Alabama's resume too.

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Roll 'Bama Roll Auburn @ Alabama: Game Thread

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Time 7:00 pm CST
Location Tuscaloosa, AL
Venue Coleman Coliseum
TV SEC Network
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats ESPN GameCast


The Tide hosts archrival Auburn with a chance to potentially lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Chime in here with comments and updates. Roll Tide!

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Roll 'Bama Roll Tide looks to take care of business at home against Auburn

The Crimson Tide basketball team will look to avoid an untimely disaster tonight as they take on the Auburn Tigers. Tip off is set for 7:00 pm CST with the game being televised regionally on the SEC Network and streamed outside the region on ESPN3.

As we mentioned earlier this week, the Tide is on the verge of qualifying for March Madness--if Bama can avoid horrible losses down the stretch. It's doubtful Alabama players or fans need any extra motivation when playing the school's biggest rival in front of a sold-out crowd of 15,000+, but the Crimson Tide could very well lock up its long-awaited return to March Madness with a win tonight.

Losing this game to Auburn would be especially costly thanks to Auburn's weak RPI ranking of 140th (as of Tuesday). Taking a loss at home to a sub-100 team is just about the worst thing that can happen to a team's tournament resume. That's the bad news. The good news is that Auburn is ranked 140th for a reason. They are just 4-10 in SEC play, and 3-13 against top 100 teams. They have some nice players and play a very feisty brand of basketball that can frustrate opponents, but at the end of the day they have struggled to knock off good teams. They are one of the weakest teams in the SEC, and Alabama will be playing at home in front of what should be a large and boisterous crowd. This is a game Alabama can and should win with solid focus, energy, and execution.

With all of that said, this is by no means an automatic win if Alabama doesn't do those things. Auburn may be one of the weaker teams in the SEC, but they are still an SEC team, and they are capable of playing with and beating good teams. They've already beaten NIT team Ole Miss and NCAA bubble teams South Florida and Mississippi State, and they've had several hard-fought losses to strong teams, even playing #1 Kentucky fairly close for most of the game. They play tough, hard-nosed defense and typically play very scrappy on both ends. Teams that don't come prepared for a physical battle can be in for a long night. For a prime example, see what happened in this same game last year when a vastly superior Alabama team needed a buzzer-beater to avoid catastrophe against an even weaker Auburn team.

Some may be overconfident about this game after the Tide handled Auburn pretty easily on the road a few weeks back. However, while Alabama managed to pull away and win with relative ease in the second half of that game, a few things happened that made it appear easier than it could have been. First, Auburn was awful from the free throw line, squandering chance after chance to keep the score close and keep their crowd in the game. Second, Auburn had three technical fouls called on them, including two for hanging on the rim, that absolutely killed their momentum in key parts of the game. Third, Alabama had an unusually strong shooting night from the perimeter, something that really keyed the Tide's ability to pull away in the 2nd half. It would be unreasonable to expect any of those things to happen again in this game, so Alabama's players and fans need to be prepared for a more drawn-out battle this time around. If those things hadn't happened the last game, things would have definitely been much closer and could have easily broken Auburn's way.

One important aspect for tonight's game is player availability for each team. Alabama's Trevor Lacey is questionable with an ankle sprain. He had caught fire offensively in recent weeks but has missed most of the last two games with his injury. He may miss this one completely, and even if he does suit up he likely won't be 100%. The bigger question though may be the availability of Auburn's Varez Ward and Chris Denson, both of whom were suspended for the Tigers' last game. Ward in particular is a vital player as the team's starting point guard. Coach Tony Barbee said yesterday that it would be a game-day decision whether or not their suspensions would be lifted. His quote certainly makes one suspect those two will be in uniform tonight in Tuscaloosa, but at least the possibility exists they won't be.

Whoever suits up for Auburn, Alabama has to come out with great energy (Coach Grant's favorite phrase), execute on both ends of the court, and maintain focus throughout. If the team does those things, Alabama can for all intents and purposes ensure itself a spot in one of America's biggest sporting events tonight...and also beat Auburn. That's always fun. Hope for the best.

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Roll 'Bama Roll 12 Days Til Selection Sunday: Bama's Position

The Crimson Tide basketball team now has just one week left in the regular season before heading to New Orleans for the SEC Tournament. That means we're now less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday, when the Tide will learn its postseason fate. Yesterday we discussed what it would take for Alabama to lock up a bid to March Madness. Today, we'll take a look at the Tide's current projections and a closer look at Bama's resume.

Latest RPI rankings

Latest bracket projections

  • As of Monday's update, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Tide as a #10 seed in his latest bracketology projection. Having studied Joe's bracket carefully, I honestly think he focused on who was in the field and who the top seeds were. He has some really curious ordering in his 5-10 seed range, and objectively, I think he has Bama low when you compare the Tide to the 8, 9, and 10 seeds in his bracket.
  • As of today's update, CBS's Jerry Palm had the Tide as a #8 seed in his latest bracketology projection. Palm (unfortunately for Bama fans) was the most accurate bracketologist last year has been one of the more accurate bracketologists in recent years. His seeding projections right now seem more in line with the way the committee has behaved recently. I used his seedings for Alabama's resume below.
  • Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner will be releasing his bracket projection later today. However, he told me last night via Twitter that he has Alabama projected as a #8 seed. (Edit: Upon reading this post, Glockner--correctly--pointed out that he was more accurate than Palm last year. He did so with a ":)", for the record).
Latest look at the resume

Resume0228_medium

Resume breakdown

  • Bama is 3-6 against projected NCAA Tournament teams. Neither of Alabama's final two regular season opponents are expected to make the NCAA Tournament, so unless Bama faces Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, or possibly Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament, the Tide will have no more games against NCAA Tournament teams. However, that doesn't mean this record won't change, even if Alabama doesn't play one of those teams in the SEC Tournament. Three of Alabama's opponents are squarely on the bubble: Mississippi State, Dayton, and VCU. It would be in Alabama's interest for all three of those teams to finish strongly, but that would be especially true for Mississippi State and VCU, as those teams right now represent Bama's 3rd and 4th best wins this season.
  • Bama is 2-5 against RPI top 50 teams. This record is probably the biggest weakness on Bama's resume, but really it's not all that bad. Still, if the Tide has hopes of getting a higher seed than the 7-10 range, another win against a team in this category will very likely be required. Again, neither of Bama's final two regular season opponents is expected to finish in the RPI top 50, so if the Tide gets another game against such a team, it will have to come in the SEC Tournament against one of the league's top teams. Two of the teams that beat Alabama, Kansas State and Dayton, are near the cut-line of this category, so it is possible they could each end up on either side of the top 50. Meanwhile, VCU continues a steady climb through the RPI, so keep an eye on where they end up. Obviously if they can crack the top 50, that would improve Bama's record here.
  • Bama is 8-3 against RPI 51-100 teams. The Tide's 8 wins against teams in this category is better than every single team in the country except for Duke (tied with 8 wins). Obviously these wins are not as good as top 50 wins, but it is a big strength of Alabama's resume considering the 2-5 record against top 50 teams. Bama will have at least one more shot at such a win with the road game at Ole Miss on Saturday, in addition to possible SEC Tournament matchups. Teams near the cut-line are Tennessee, Maryland (currently on the good side of the cut-line), Georgia, and Oklahoma State (currently on the bad side of the cut-line)
  • Bama has 10 total wins against RPI top 100 teams. Alabama's biggest resume strength right now are the 10 total wins against RPI top 100 teams. To give you an idea of just how strong that is, Michigan State, currently projected to be a #1 seed, has 11 such wins.
  • Bama is 9-1 against sub-100 RPI teams, with at least one such game remaining. As Tide fans know all too well, these wins really do nothing for your resume, but losses to these teams can be killer. Alabama's road loss to South Carolina looks really, really bad and is a big reason Bama isn't 100% safe right now. There's nothing that can be done about that now, though, except hope that the Gamecocks don't fall all the way out of the top 200. What Alabama can do, however, is ensure that no more such losses appear. This means that the Tide must at all costs avoid losing at home to an Auburn team that is currently ranked 140th. There is also a good chance that Alabama will face a sub-100 team like South Carolina, Georgia, or Auburn in the opening round of the SEC Tournament if Alabama does not earn a first-round bye.

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Roll 'Bama Roll How close is Bama to locking up a bid to March Madness?

Levi Randolph and the Bama freshmen have led the way recently.

The Crimson Tide basketball team has somehow navigated a treacherous suspension saga to emerge as one of the hottest teams in the SEC over the last couple of weeks. Fresh off big wins over Arkansas and Mississippi State last week, the Tide is now looking very good to land a coveted spot in this year's NCAA Tournament.

After spending a lot of time this weekend studying the numbers and the resumes of various "bubble" teams, and consulting with a few actual bracketologists like CBS's Jerry Palm and SI's Andy Glockner over Twitter, I can safely say that Alabama would be in the field with relative ease if the season were to end today.

That doesn't mean Alabama would have a very high seed, as I suspect that the bracket projections which will be released today and tomorrow from these experts will likely have the Tide in the 8/9 range or so, but even that seed range gives Bama a little breathing room, as at least a dozen or so other at-large teams will be projected in the field behind the Tide. However, even with that breathing room, Alabama is not 100% safe.

In order to say the Tide is a "lock", we need to ask ourselves, if Bama lost every single remaining game, would we still be safe? The answer, right now, is probably not. Losing out would have to begin by adding a home loss to an Auburn team ranked in the 140's of the RPI. That alone would be enough to knock Bama down a couple of seed lines at least. If that loss were then followed up by a road loss to an Ole Miss team that has a respectable RPI but is not an NCAA contender themselves, you'd have to think the Tide would be squarely on the bubble heading into the SEC Tournament next week.

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Roll 'Bama Roll Mississippi State @ Alabama: Game Thread

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Time 5:00 pm CST
Location Tuscaloosa, AL
Venue Coleman Coliseum
TV ESPN
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats ESPN GameCast


The Tide hosts the Bulldogs for a crucial bubble battle. Chime in here with comments and updates. Roll Tide!



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Roll 'Bama Roll Bama welcomes Bulldogs for bubble battle

Dee Bost keys the Bulldog attack.

The Crimson Tide basketball team will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight in what has shaped up to be an extremely crucial game for both teams as they each look to lock up bids to the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Tip-off for this massive showdown is set for 5:00 pm CST, with the game being televised nationally on ESPN.

Entering this game, both teams are in a similar, precarious position: in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today, but so low in the pecking order of at-large teams that a poor finish from here on could drive them all the way out of the field. For that reason, it is vital for each team to get a win in what is being hyped by the national media as an important battle between two "bubble" teams.

Interestingly enough, both teams have taken similar paths to get to this point. Both have been ranked in the top 20 for much of the season, but have been shaky recently and now find themselves battling the bubble rather than the top 15. The difference has been the trajectory of the path. Alabama has gone through three distinct rocky patches that threatened to derail a promising season, the most recent of course being the suspension saga. However the Tide has now seemingly put the suspension ordeal behind them and is actually coming off back-to-back crucial wins in the past week. The Bulldogs meanwhile are currently mired in their own slump, having lost their last four games. Just two weeks ago they were ranked in the top 25 and looked destined for a high NCAA Tournament seed, but after losing back-to-back overtime games to Georgia and LSU, and then falling on the road to lowly Auburn, the Bulldogs are in search of a major win to right the ship.

Don't let the recent slide fool you, however. Mississippi State is still easily one of the most talented teams in the SEC, and in their last game on Tuesday night, they outplayed #1 Kentucky for much of the game, leading by double figures at the half before falling in the end. State is an extremely dangerous team that is capable of playing with anyone, and with the Bulldogs more desperate for a win than even Alabama, don't expect anything less than a big-time battle as both teams seek to lock up their place in March Madness.

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Roll 'Bama Roll Grant: Green "available", Lacey "doubtful" for Saturday

At this afternoon's press conference, coach Anthony Grant announced that he "anticipates" leading scorer JaMychal Green will be "dressed and available" for tomorrow's crucial home game against Mississippi State. This will be Green's first game back after missing the last four games due to suspension.

This is nothing but good news for Bama fans. Alabama has played well its last two games without Green, thanks largely to some nice defensive performances and some big-time contributions from perimeter players Trevor Releford, Andrew Steele, Rodney Cooper, and Trevor Lacey. However, those two wins came against two of the least-dangerous frontcourts in the SEC. In the two previous games without Green, against LSU and Florida, Alabama was completely dominated on the interior. With one of the SEC's top frontcourts coming to Coleman Coliseum tomorrow, this is a very good time for Green to return to the lineup.

As has been well-documented, Green will be coming off his third suspension in Grant's three seasons as head coach, and the last two times it has happened Green has come back focused and hungry. Let's hope that's the case this time around.

The news was not as good for freshman guard Trevor Lacey, who Grant listed as "doubtful" for the Mississippi State game due to an injury he suffered on Thursday night against Arkansas. An MRI today confirmed that Lacey's injury was a sprained ankle, which means he'll likely miss time but should be able to return to action at some point this season.

Hopefully that return will be sooner rather than later, because Lacey has looked extremely dangerous the last two games. He lit up Tennessee for 18 points, and then started out on fire against Arkansas, scoring 8 points in only 6 minutes on the court before his injury. The injury was poorly timed for Lacey, who has had an up and down freshman season, but had really seemed to have "the light come on" as they say in his most recent outing. Hopefully when he does return he will pick up where he left off prior to the injury.

We'll have more on tomorrow's crucial showdown with Mississippi State later today or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: Per Cecil Hurt, the Mississippi State game is officially a sellout.

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Roll 'Bama Roll Alabama @ Arkansas: Game Thread


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Time 6:00 pm CST
Location Fayetteville, AR
Venue Bud Walton Arena
TV ESPN2
Stream ESPN3
Audio Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live stats ESPN GameCast


The Tide is seeking a crucial road win to bolster the team's postseason hopes. Chime in here with comments and updates. Roll Tide!

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Roll 'Bama Roll Tide looks to bolster postseason hopes with tough road challenge

Bud Walton Arena is a tough place to get a road win.

The Crimson Tide basketball team will hit the road tonight for a tough road contest in Fayetteville against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Tip off is set for 6:00 pm CST with the game being televised nationally on ESPN2.

Despite all the turmoil on the team with the recent--and in JaMychal Green's case, still ongoing--suspensions and the fact that the Tide has dropped six of its last ten games, Alabama is still in position to make the NCAA Tournament if Bama can close the season strongly. Winning on Thursday night on the road against an Arkansas team that is 17-1 at home and ranked in the top 100 of the RPI would certainly give a big boost to Bama's chances.

The challenge for Alabama will be great. Tony Mitchell is done for the year. JaMychal Green is still suspended. That means once again the Tide will be forced to play a tough conference game without its two best players. Arkansas has fallen out of contention for an NCAA at-large berth, but the young Hogs are extremely tough to beat in Bud Walton Arena. Not only are they 17-1 at home, but their wins have included notches over three projected NCAA Tournament teams, including top-10-ranked Michigan, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State.

Arkansas is a program in transition under first-year coach Mike Anderson, with one of the youngest lineups in the SEC. Like typical young but talented teams, the Hogs have shown flashes of being very dangerous, especially at home, never more so apparent than when they ran an elite Michigan team off the floor for a half back in January en route to a big win. However, the Hogs have also been extremely inconsistent, as evidenced by their 0-9 record outside of Bud Walton Arena.

Despite their road struggles, Arkansas gave Alabama all they wanted in the two teams' first meeting in Tuscaloosa. The Tide actually didn't take the lead for good until under 5 minutes to go in what was a very competitive game within one possession in the final two minutes. Clearly the Razorbacks have proven they have what it takes to take on the Tide, and doing so on their home court with a shorthanded Bama team has them as slight favorites according to Vegas. Alabama will need a big-time effort from all four freshmen players and the two little-used 7-footers who will be filling in for Green, not to mention some major leadership and production from Releford and Steele, the only two players dressing out who have any significant experience beyond this season. Hope for the best.

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JaMychal Green will not be playing Thursday at Arkansas.

"We’ll see how the week goes and we’ll make some decisions after Thursday," Grant said about Green’s availability moving forward.

[...] Grant said Nick Jacobs practiced yesterday and should be good to go after an infection left him with a fever Saturday.

3 months ago Green_tiny Matt Dover 10 comments