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Matt Klaassen
Mar 29, 2008 Feb 12, 2012 435 35306
I'm some guy who likes baseball.
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Royals Management and Others on Hard Slotting From August
Just interesting given today's developments and discussions.
Some interesting quotes.
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"The general view among industry insiders is that the players’ union will staunchly oppose any "hard slotting" in the draft, rebelling against any policy that could be considered a salary cap — even if that cap is relegated to players who have never played an inning of professional baseball."
[yeah, not so much]
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'"In some drafts, there are picks that are worth the highest order, and in other drafts, there are picks that are worth a lot less," Boras said. "So (baseball shouldn’t) create some falsity and take away that intellectual evaluation because talent doesn’t run uniformly every year; it runs in flows and streams."'
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Boras also holds a belief that a hard-slotting system could push young baseball players toward other sports.
Royals general manager Dayton Moore disagrees with that sentiment, but Royals officials do expect that more high school players will elect to go to college — at least for a year or two.
"What? Are players not going to sign?" Moore says. "The money doesn’t make the player. What ultimately makes the player is his willingness and his passion to play."
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"My problem sometimes," Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur says, "is that you get a first-round pick, and that’s a lot of money to pay a high school kid who’s 18, and you don’t exactly know what you’re always gonna get. But at the same time, that’s the great thing about baseball — the free-agent market — you can get what you can get."
Francoeur is serving on a players’ association committee as both sides prepare for negotiation, and he’s thought about the options. Maybe you move the signing deadline up to the beginning of July, he says, and that would lessen the leverage of draft picks and get them out playing earlier.
This much is certain: The multimillion dollar signing bonuses are catching the eye of veteran major-leaguers.
"I think it’s just getting out of control now," Francoeur says.
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Might be too easy, but that last one is illuminating to read with this in mind.
3 months ago
Matt Klaassen
14 comments
2 recs
A Response to McClure on Bannister
I don't pretend to know much about this stuff, but Kevin Scobee does. Scobee (@scobes15 on Twitter) was a college pitcher who has coaching experience himself. He also gets input from current University of Georgia picher Derek McGowan.
Whatever your position is, this is definitely worth a read for those interested in Bannister, McClure, the Royals, or pitching in general.
3 months ago
Matt Klaassen
19 comments
5 recs
2011 Beyond the Box Score Catcher Defense Ratings: Year-End Edition
Once again, I failed to keep up with monthly updates to my catcher defense rankings, although I did get a couple of installments done during the season. The Gold Glove awards are coming out later tonight, so let's see if they get it "right." (ahem)
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Nelson Cruz has five homers in the first five games of the ALCS, mostly because the Tigers have challenged him inside with fastballs -- including the 99.9 mph fastball that Justin Verlander threw the other day. Cruz turned on the pitch and mashed a home run, the fastest pitch hit for a homer this year; the previous high had been a 98.6 mph fastball that Alex Gordon hit off Neftali Feliz on May 27.
Until the Royals make the playoffs, schadenfreude will do.
"Beast Mode," Monsters, Inc., Air Quotes, or just mocking his teammates? Actually, I don't care. I wish I could quit you, Zack Greinke, you crazy, awesome S.O.B.
H/T: Dave Brown
4 months ago
Matt Klaassen
16 comments
1 recs
Bruce Chen: The Next Jamie Moyer?
Wow, what an insult. To Chen, I mean.
Beyond the Box Score 2011 Catcher Defense Ratings: July Edition
So I guess my plan to do monthly updates of the Catcher Defense Ratings is becoming something closer to bimonthly (a tribute to Bi-Mon-Sci-Fi-Con, uh, yeah). As always, take these with a grain of salt. I do think they do reflect something objective, way of "analyzing" events into defensive contributions (not to mention true talent) has acknowledged limitations. Nonetheless, I do think they reflect actual contributions of catchers in the field adequately to be worth doing.
There's a bit of an added "bonus" in this month's post. In response to questions from some of the nerdier of past comments, I've appended a shortened version of the methodological issues from when I originally did this rankings at the end of the post after the big table. They aren't much, but they give some reasons for doing it the way I've done it. If you're curious, they're worth reading if you have questions along those lines.
First, let's take a look at some of the overall leaders and trailers.
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A few weeks ago, kcdc1 and I made a "bet" (Ithere were no stakes, so I'm not sure it really qualifies, but I did commit myself to a side, so there). If I remember correctly, he took the position that Francoeur would finish at least 2 WAR (he wouldn't commit to more... heh). I took the under. Well, as you can see from the screeen shot above, from this morning, Jeff Francoeur is at 2 WAR now. Sure, he could play at below replacement level the rest of the season (he's still Jeff Francoeur), but the chances are against that... So I'm not sure whether I'm conceding or not (given that I assumed Francoeur would start hot), but I didn't think it would go on long enough to come to this.
Plus, since this is the first time I've ever been wrong, I thought you'd all want to see evidence of this historic moment. Congratulations kcdc1, Jeff Francoeur, and, of course, Dayton Moore! 3/20 now!
9 months ago
Matt Klaassen
39 comments
2 recs
Beyond the Box Score 2011 Catcher Defense Ratings: May Edition
And now... the moment you've all been waiting for... the first installment of the Beyond the Box Score Catcher defense ratings of the 2011 season! What, you haven't been waiting for them? What, you aren't interested a catcher defense metric that doesn't give extra credit for a guy hitting like a pitcher or interrupting a generic interview to defend a helpless youngster? Well, too bad.
These rankings are expressed in runs above and below average based on comparing each players fielding errors (FERns), throwing errors (TERns), passed balls and wild pitches (PBWPRns), and of course, caught stealing (CSRuns), and converting them to their linear weight values. For more specifics on the methodology, click here. As I've written before, I don't make any great claims to originality with this, other people have done it before in similar ways, I've simply added my own tweaks. However, I was encouraged to do them again this season, and will try to update them monthly. Keep in mind that this is over a short sample (we have to start sometime!), that I don't claim that this is anything like great or comprehensive (it is quick and dirty), and, of course, that there is a difference between observed performance and "true talent," particularly over a small sample size. Without any further ado, let's take a look at some leaders and trailers.
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Just had long conversation with scout. Likes most KC prospects, but not sold on Moustakas. "Reminds me of Shea Hillenbrand with more power."
Using my super-duper-influential influence to make the Royals American's team.
Click here for embiggened version.
We will remember this day for the rest of our lives. Opening Day 2011... sit on it, Rays fans! Readable version.
11 months ago
Matt Klaassen
3 comments
1 recs
Top Five Prospects Drafted By Me in the FanGraphs Staff Ottoneu Fantasy League
- Jesus Montero
- Eric Hosmer
- Wil Myers
- Mike Moustakas
- BELT~!
2008 NYRoyal : Rob Neyer :: Scout.com Message Board : 2011 Scott McKinney
Discuss.
NB: I just discovered some pretty hilarious "nyroyal" related tags that must have been around for a while...
RA versus ERA 1871-2010: Baseball Databank Data Dump 2.3.1
I hate Earned Run Average. I doesn't add anything truly useful over Runs Allowed, unless you think that errors are a Really Good Stat. I mean, I guess they're better than Pitcher Wins or something, but... I don't even have the energy to get into it right now. I'm not even talking about ERA vs. FIP, or DIPS or tRA or SIERA or anything like that. I just mean the "E" part of it. There are many, many good posts on why the "earned" rules is silly, for example this one by Jack Moore or this classic by Michael Wolverton, and I'm not going to get into it, here. Moreover, if you're, say, calculating pitcher WAR, for example, the ERA scale (with whatever statistics) will undervalue pitchers when compared to position players since you aren't comparing it to a "real" runs scale, the runs-to-win conversion is thrown off, and so forth. Sigh. However, I grant that it is still the most common pitching statistic, and most of the newer pitching stats are scaled to it (not because the creators "believe" in ERA, but because they understandably want to use a scale people are familiar with). But until That Great Day comes when ERA is banished and we're all on an RA scale, having a quick "scale" to convert from one to the other might be helpful.
That's right, it's time for another thrilling Baseball Databank Data Dump.
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Minor League Fans Scouting Report
Clint Scoles (kcscoliny at Royals Review and SBNation) has started Minor League Fans Scouting report. His focuses on the Royals (of course), but it could and I hope will be done for all systems to give fans who are interested but don't get to see the different teams in their teams and other teams' systems an idea what prospects are out there, as well as giving their own input. Are there other versions of projects like Clint's out there? If so, let us know!
It goes without saying that if you're a Royals fan, you should check this out and participate.
Beyond the Box Score Podcast Rewinds Itself, Previews 2011 AL Central
As if the lure of hearing my dulcet tones discuss Jason Kendall and the other lesser stars of the 2011 AL Central along with host Dave Gershman and special guest Nick Scott of Royals Authority wasn't enough, Dave also interviews Phillies prospect Jiwan James. And yes, sorry in advance for the blatant self-promotion.
2011 MLB Schedule in Excel Format
Handy for some nerdy tasks (like setting up expected win-loss records and standings). Scroll down or search for it.
12 months ago
Matt Klaassen
7 comments
3 recs
When Do 10 Runs Not Equal a Win? Baseball Databank Data Dump 2.2
I tried to start this baseball-databank data dump series for myself last season, but it didn't take. I'm hoping to have better luck this season with shorter, and, uh, "dumpier" posts. So, for your breathless perusal (drum roll please)... historical runs-per-win conversions!
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Possibly the Greatest Thing in the History of Things
From DRaysBay, Choose Your Own Adventure: Joe Maddon's Big Night. Trust me.
What's the problem? Why are people bitching so much? That's my question. That's my frustration. The problem is people having patience with the process.
Brian Cashman. Hey Ca$hmoney, Dayton knows all about impatient fanbases and high-pressure media firestorms. Give him a call and I'm sure he'll help you out, maybe even send you a stud reliever locked up for years. All it will cost you is some kid that I heard doesn't even have a real position.
Five Things You Won't Hear in Gil Meche's Retirement Speech
- "First and foremost, I'd like to thank Trey Hillman."
- "It's like what Jose said to me once when we were hunting..."
- "I'll always remember asking Dayton why he gave me five years, and him replying, 'I want you to be here when the winning starts'."
- "...and also the Royals' great medical staff..."
- "And finally, to Cliff Lee, despite our disagreements about Milton and Shakespeare, I say this: Amicii flores in horto vitae sunt."
Custom wOBA and Linear Weights Through 2010: Baseball Databank Data Dump 2.1
A rare photo of Tom Tango, seen here calculating linear weights. |
You know what wOBA is, right? If not, get hip to it. In short, wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) was created by Tom Tango as a way of more accurately expressing a player's offensive value (according to the linear weights of offensive events) than more traditional stats like batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, or whatever. While those numbers have their uses, linear weights more accurately reflect what a player has contributed since it does a better job of noting the relative value of walks, singles, doubles, etc. than those stats. wOBA is simply linear weights expressed as a "rate stat" scaled on on-base percentage, so, for example (depending on the run environment) .320-.330 are usually around average, .300 is terrible, and .400 is awesome.
While the "original recipe" uses some pretty standard and effective weights, since then Tango has published a script that "customizes" wOBA for seasonal run environments. This has been implemented at FanGraphs, for example. However, many people now prefer these "custom" versions, but the values aren't readily available. I'm no sabermetric or SQL wizard, but I do have the script that these things are based. Due to overwhelming demand from my massive fanbase (okay, a couple of people on Twitter), I've run the script and have the weights through this season. I take no great claim to have invented this method or the script, but below you will find the wOBA coefficients updated for each MLB season through 2010.
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5 recs |
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Brief Thoughts on Five "Scoops" Guys
- Jayson Stark: cheesy (somewhat enjoyably so), master of the "anonymous scout/official from rival club" quote, superfluous "y" in first name makes me suspect he is a long-lost Nix brother.
- Ken Rosenthal: good at getting scoops, poor analytical skills counterbalanced by tremendous resemblance to Rocky the Flying Squirrel.
- Buster Olney: Heard this: despite occasional outbursts of fogey-ness, Olney is easily the best analyst in this genre, worth reading for more than just rumors and inside information.
- Jon Paul Morosi: Rosenthal-in-training, you can tell by the haircut.
- Jon Heyman: LOL.
Best Four Current Royals Outfielders (No Particular Order)
- Alex Gordon
- Lorenzo Cain
- Gregor Blanco
- MITCH Maier
Bill from Crashburn Alley whipped this up just for me. Thanks, Bill!
Couldn't help myself, had to post this from Crashburn Alley.
Royals 2011 ZiPS posted
Happy Real Thankgiving.
Gotta love Dan's way with words (even if MS Paint Billy is absent):
"What the Royals do have is an amazing farm system, up-and-down, there are a number of potential stars, starters, and even an impressive slate of guys who should be solid role players. The biggest question facing the Royals in the near future is how Moore will handle transitioning these players into major league roles. For example, Mike Montgomery or John Lamb are likely to force their way into the rotation, but what happens to the players that can contribute but whose impact in the majors is less than utterly and completely obvious? Butler and Greinke were treated well by the organization, but Moore's management style towards non-stars under 30 seems to be best described as hostile indifference. So in recent years, there's been a situation in which useful players like Ka'aihue, Aviles, Gordon, Maier, and others are just kind of "hanging around." Sure, they'll keep getting at-bats when they play well, but they're always bad road trip from being benched and their opportunities never seem to follow any logical train-of-thought derived from the organizations strengths or weaknesses. So you end up with situations in which Willie Bloomquist ends up being a starting corner outfielder because Moore's played Sgt. Schulz with talent, despite corner outfielders better than Bloomquist being easier to find than abandoned houses in Detroit."
After the BLF goes to sleep, I'll spend some more time looking at these and converting into wOBA/FIP/WAR/etc. and convincing myself that people care.
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