Tom Glavine Free Agent

Matt L — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 03:59:44 -0000

Tom Glavine opted out of his contract, which seems as good a time as any to start wild speculation.

Pure hypothetical. Suppose Tom Glavine called up the 'stache and said, "You know what? I love your core, and I think you just need another vet on your staff. I'm tired of all the New York media scrutiny, and pitching in Milwaukee might allow me to have some fun."

Aside from disbelief, you aren't sure how to react.

Suppose you are given these two contract offers.

(1)
2 year, $24 million deal
Year 1: $10 million
Year 2: $14 million player option

(2)
3 year, $36 million dollar deal, $25 million over the first two years, $11 million mutual option for year 3.

Would either one of these be a good idea for the Brewers? How much real value would he bring?

I'm sure there's approximately no chance he'd sign in Milwaukee, but I figure I might as well toss it out while it's still fun to think about.

Off-Season Theory, Part 2

Matt L — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 02:26:46 -0000

The Jay did the setup, so I will shamelessly steal from him here:

What do you see the Brewers roster looking like in 2008? What should it look like? Here's your chance to play Doug Melvin and chart out the team's future.

The set-up:

This is a business, not dream world, so there's budgetary and roster constraints. Mark Attanasio wants to win with the best of them, but he and the board can't condone raising the payroll above $80 million. There's an awful lot of guys with no options as well, cramping your style. Trading is one way to deal with the crunch, but you have to make sure they're realistic (i.e., no Laynce Nix for Joe Mauer straight up) and don't raise the payroll too high. Your roster limit is 25 and it should be reasonably balanced (no 15-man pitching staff, Nedgar).

Here's the players currently on the team available (without free-agent re-signings) to put on the 2008 roster (note: arbitration and renewal numbers are my attempt to be realistic, call me on them or change it if you have a better idea). I'm not entirely sure on options for everyone, but I noted the players I know are out of them:

Johnny Estrada, C, last time eligible for arbitration (say roughly $4.2 million), can refuse assignment to minors
Prince Fielder, 1B, contract renewed (say 900k a la Ryan Howard), arbitration through 2011
Rickie Weeks, 2B, contract renewed (say 1.32M, same as this year), arbitration through 2011
J.J. Hardy, SS, eligible for arbitration (say 2.5M), arbitration through 2010
Ryan Braun, 3B, contract renewed (say 450k), arbitration through 2013
Craig Counsell, IF, 2.80M, club option for $3.40M for 2009, player option for $2.80M for 2009 if traded
Corey Hart, OF, contract renewed (say 425k), arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers.
Gabe Gross, OF, contract renewed (say 425k), arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers.
Laynce Nix, OF, contract renewed (say 400k); arbitration through 2011, out of options: MUST be on roster or placed on waivers
Tony Gwynn Jr., OF, contract renewed (say 400k)
Bill Hall, CF, 4.80M, $15.7M commitment through 2010 (club option for 2011)
Geoff Jenkins, LF/RF, club option for $9.00M
Kevin Mench, LF/RF, last time eligible for arbitration (say $4.2 million), can refuse assignment to minors

Ben Sheets, SP, $11.00M (may be traded to only 8 clubs; not sure which ones, presumably contenders)
Jeff Suppan, SP, $8.00M, $27.00M commitment through 2010, club option for 2011 (may block trades to 8 clubs in 2009-2010)
Chris Capuano, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $4.25M), arbitration through 2009
Claudio Vargas, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $3.50M), arbitration through 2009
Dave Bush, SP, eligible for arbitration (say $2.80M), arbitration through 2010
Yovani Gallardo, SP, contract renewed (say $425k), arbitration through 2013
Manny Parra, SP, contract renewed (say $400k), arbitration through 2013
Carlos Villanueva, SP, contract renewed (say $425k), arbitration through 2012
Derrick Turnbow, RP, $3.20M, arbitration through 2009
Matt Wise, last time eligible for arbitration (say $2.00M), can refuse assignment to minors
Brian Shouse, last time eligible for arbitration (say $1.25M), can refuse assignment to minors
Greg Aquino, contract renewed (say $400k), out of options: MUST be on roster or clear waivers
Seth McClung, eligible for arbitration (say $1.00M), out of options: MUST be on roster or clear waivers

Any prospects, minor league roster filler, etc., that you like (assume minimum salary of $400k each to make computation easier)

If you keep everyone on that list, you are on the hook for $70.47M of your $80M budget.
Take a gander at the free agent class list over at Cot's for inspiration and other relevant info.

Again, if I'm way off in my estimation of what a renewal or arbitration will yield, feel free to change it in your calculation or just complain. Good luck!

Okay, again thanks to the Jay for his diary post... So here's my take:

Okay, here are the things I know.

I know I have Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, and Hall in my lineup every day next year.

I know that Braun has to improve his defense at 3rd to help out my staff.

I need to figure out if Hall was just having the flipside anomaly to his 2006, or if moving to the outfield disrupted his game.

I need to buy out Geoff Jenkins for $0.5 million.

I know Ben Sheets is my ace for 25-27 starts. I might apply the Pedro rules to him. I want a spot starter to minimize his workload.

Things I don't know:
If Bill Hall isn't my CF, who is? What do I do with the fact that we seem to have 6 guys for the back rotation spots and the spot starter slot?

Something I didn't know:
Look at Estrada's 2007 offensive numbers, then look at the numbers for Pudge Rodriguez. He's really not that bad for a catcher.

What do I do?

Bill Hall and Ryan Braun become my LF and 3B. I don't have the baseball knowledge to know which should be which.

For CF, I offer Chris Capuano to Kansas City for David DeJesus. The Royals have Gathright, and would probably love to get a pitcher in return. DeJesus is a lefty, and brings a 350 OBP. I could slot him into the #2 hole between Weeks and Braun.

For the bullpen, I follow Jeff's advice and offer Coco enough money that I look respectable, but not enough money that I'm the top offer. If he likes brats and wants to stay in Milwaukee, he takes the deal and doesn't break the bank. If he decides he wants to cash in, I wish him well and attempt to use the draft picks wisely. Bullpen arms are so volatile and unpredictable that building a bullpen from year to year seems to be relatively pointless. We seem to have enough MLB caliber arms that we can cobble it together. If Coco says no, I probably make an offer slightly less juicy to Linebrink, again hoping to keep him for a price that doesn't consume my entire budget. As far as trades and acquisitions to build the pen/fill it out more if we don't like who we have, I trust the baseball people. I haven't looked that deep at MLB, but I don't think we're that much worse than anyone else.

Ideally, I'd like my roster to be 13 hitters, 12 pitchers. Our lineup is solid enough that I'll take the extra bullpen flexibility of the 12th pitcher, and just give guys days off as they warrant (not Ned Yost style). That means we have 3 guys (Mench, Gross, and Gwynn) for 2 bench spots. And only 1 backup infielder in Counsell. I'd like to flip Gross for someone's extra backup IF, similar arbitration status. I don't have a specific name in mind. I like Gwynn as a defensive replacement, and as a pinch runner.

2008 Opening Day Roster
Lineup
Weeks 2B
DeJesus CF
Braun 3B/LF
Fielder 1B
Hart RF
Hall 3B/LF
Hardy SS
Estrada C

Bench
Mench OF
Gwynn OF
Counsell IF
IF acquired in Gross Flip
Mike Rivera/Rottino C

Rotation
Sheets
Gallardo
Suppan
Villanueva
Bush

Spot Starter
Vargas

Bullpen
Closer
Coco and/or Linebrink

Others (Keep 5)
Turnbow
Wise
Parra
Shouse
Aquino
McClung

At the very least, I've done this and maintained, not increased payroll. If I can increase payroll, instead of trading Cappy for DeJesus, I pursue Aaron Rowand in Free Agency and trade the odd man out in my rotation for a higher quality RP, assuming I can make that move.

This weekend, Part 2

Matt L — Tue, 25 Jul 2006 17:16:57 -0000

I know it's been said before.... but

This weekend series is the most important one of the Brewers season.

I know it's been said before.... but

This weekend series is the most important one of the Brewers season.

They are 4.5 back of Cincinnati with the Reds coming to town this weekend. If we could sweep them at home, we'd probably be a game or so out of the Wild Card at the deadline.

If we lose all 3, or even the first two, I expect Lee to be traded ASAP.

Of course, first we have to keep opening up a can on the Pirates in order for the Reds games to be meaningful, but I'm excited. Gonna be in Milwaukee this weekend, maybe I'll get out to the ballpark on Saturday night.

Brew Crew Strat-o-matic Players

Matt L — Sun, 12 Feb 2006 03:16:44 -0000

With the fantasy baseball league starting up, I was wondering if any of the other regulars on the site played Strat-o-Matic baseball, or any other simulation games.

I've been playing Strat for a few years, and I enjoy it so much it's pretty much caused me to quit fantasy baseball.

For those who aren't familiar with the game, it's a simulation game based on the previous year's MLB statistics. Game play is like baseball, each team has a lineup, bench, pitchers, bullpen, etc. A plate appearance is resolved via rolling 3 six-sided dice, and a 20-sided die for the advanced version of the game. Those dice rolls refer to a specific outcome printed on either the card for the batter or the card for the pitcher.

The really cool part is that with that relatively simple game mechanic, player's end up with statistics that correspond very well to their performance in the season being modelled.

SB Nation User Blog: Matt L

Tom Glavine Free Agent

Off-Season Theory, Part 2

This weekend, Part 2

Brew Crew Strat-o-matic Players