SB Nation User Blog: Matt Swartz

The Judge's Save Situation

Matt Swartz — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 02:05:07 -0000

I've certainly undertaken some challenging topics to write about at The Good Phight over the last year, but this one might be the hardest. I'm writing this to tell you all that this is my last article at The Good Phight. Some of you may have seen my article yesterday posted at Baseball Prospectus. Yes, as it turns out, even though I came in fourth in the contest, BP has hired me to write a weekly column there (hence the bad pun in the title), and they have asked that I write exclusively for them. While I know this is a great opportunity, the sad part is that I must retire from posting at TGP.

Writing at TGP has been a great experience. It started off being a fun thing to do on the side and turned out to be life-changing. It was only fifteen months ago that Whole Camels, Dajafi, David S. Cohen, and JonK invited me to join. Since then, I've written 75 articles here. You all have given me tons of feedback and helped me grow as a writer and I'm extremely grateful for that. I would not be in the position that I am in now without it, so I would like to thank the readers for that.

I also wanted to publicly thank Whole Camels, Dajafi, David S. Cohen, and JonK for all their help. Without all of their encouragement and advice along the way, I would not have been given the opportunity to improve as a baseball writer, I would not have had the courage to enter BP Idol, and I would not have had great minds to discuss my ideas with throughout the process. So thank you to them.

I'll still be around commenting and reading all the articles, but I won't be blogging here anymore. I hope that you will follow me over at BP. Go Phillies. Let's make it ten wins in a row tonight.

Phillies at Marlins: July 16-19

Matt Swartz — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:21:28 -0000

The Phillies (48-38) hope to maintain the momentum they had going in to the All-Star break when they go up against the second place Florida Marlins (46-44), who trail them by four games ahead of a four game set. The Phillies, as you probably have heard, have added Pedro Martinez over the break, but he is not ready and won't be pitching this series. Instead, the Phillies have an opportunity to start the four guys that clearly are members of their rotation before figuring out who the 5th starter is against the Cubs next Monday.

Thursday, Jamie Moyer will look to add to his impressive history against the Marlins. Moyer has not dominated them this year as he has in previous years, and it's natural to wonder whether statistics like 'pitcher vs team X' even do have any predictive information, but Moyer hopes they do. He Marlins will throw righty Chris Volstad out against the Phillies. Volstad is a hard throwing righty who does not strike out many batters, but has been pretty effective this year. He throws primarily fastball/curveball, while mixing in a changeup, and this helps him get a lot of groundballs.

Friday, the Phillies send unlucky ace Cole Hamels to the mound. Cole has been the victim of a bad BABIP this year, but as I continue to state, his peripheral numbers are too strong to generate concern. Be ready for a strong second half, and hopefully a shot at being strong again in the playoffs. The Marlins counter with Ricky Nolasco who was sent to the minors at one point this year despite solid peripheral numbers. If you looked at his 5.76 ERA, you might not be scared but he has struck out nearly a batter an inning and walked barely two guys per nine innings. He has a pretty average groundball rate. You wouldn't know if by the ERAs, but this should be a close game.

Saturday, Josh Johnson pitches for the Marlins. Johnson has been very strong this year, improving his strikeout rate and walking fewer batters, while also increasing his groundball rate. He has a good slider, which makes him a bit tougher on righties than lefties. The Phillies counter with Joe Blanton whose ERA is now starting to improve and approach what his peripherals have been telling us this year. Blanton has seen an inexplicable increase in strikeout rate without adding a pitch, changing his usage, throwing more strikes, getting more swing-and-misses, or any other normal factor associated with an improved strikeout rate. He's just pitched effectively and his ERA has yet to reflect thata.

Sunday, the Phillies send lucky lefty J.A. Happ to face the Marlins. Happ's ERA has creeped under three, but his peripherals show an average pitcher at best. While that is a pleasant surprise, do not expect him to maintain this pace and beware the commentators who call him an ace in the making. Aces have better control, miss more bats, and generate more groundballs. Happ may be someone the Phillies can trade high on if it helps them land a Canadian ace pitcher of some kind. The Marlins counter with young lefty Andrew Miller. Miller has done a good job generating groundballs, but he has been wild and hasn't struck out enough batters to be all that effective. He's very talented, though, and could be very tough to manage, especially for the Phillies left leaning lineup.

The matchups:
Thursday, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Chris Volstad (R)
Friday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Nolasco (R)
Saturday, 7:10-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Josh Johnson (R)
Sunday, 1:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Andrew Miller (L)

After the split, I preview the players, the splits, and the matchups.

MARLINS

LINE UP

1) Chris Coghlan (L): .245/.342/.335

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none

2) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.304/.324

projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more. He also avoids infield popups. So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l): thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none

3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R): .349/.411/.567

proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l: .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others

4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .287/.332/.454

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .227/.340/.429

proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .255/.345/.399

proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) RF Cody Ross (R): .278/.337/.498

proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

8) C John Baker (L): .258/.332/.421

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l: 1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Ronny Paulino (R): .241/.303/.376

proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l: .643/.928 career. 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers

1B Ross Gload (L): .282/.348/.419

proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l: does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Andy Gonzalez (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .230/.320/.340
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 48%
iff: 17%
ifh: 1%
babip: projected around .285
s/c/z: patient, okay eye, not so great contact
r/l: .499 vs .639 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .527 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Wes Helms (R): .244/.290/.303

proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l: 4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

OF Brett Carroll (R): .267/.329/.467

proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Chris Volstad (R): 4.44 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.58 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info

Volstad vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/13, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/12, 3 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/13, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Ricky Nolasco (R): 5.76 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb! .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops

Nolasco vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Bako: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Josh Johnson (R): 2.74 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.94 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though

Johnson vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2

SUNDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823

Miller vs Phillies:

Utley: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 8/15, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/12, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 1/7, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ruiz: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 2/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL Dan Meyer (L): 1.78 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.52 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908

Meyer vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Renyel Pinto (L): 2.81 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.16 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Pinto vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

Leo Nunez (R): 3.79 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.25 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops

Nunez vs Phillies:

Stairs: 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kiko Calero (R): 1.95 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.26 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Calero vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Sanches (R): 1.25 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops

Sanches vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 1 BB

Brendan Donnelly (R): 3 IP with 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 HR; 1.75 ERA in 25.2 IP in AAA, 23/7 K/BB; 0 HR

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.7 Bb/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 51% fb, 40% sl, 5% ch, 4% sf
r/l: .626 vs .660 ops; 4.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .624 vs .660 ops; 2.6 vs 2.7 k/bb

Donnelly vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 4/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Luis Ayala (R): 4.18 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.40 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 61% fb, 28% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .670 vs .824 ops; 4.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .762 ops; 3.0 vs 2.8 k/bb

Ayala vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/14, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Howard: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bruntlett: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Burke Badenhop (R): 3.45 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.70 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Badenhop vs. Phillies;

Bako: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Christopher Leroux (L): 11.12 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 3.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.42 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info

Leroux: has not faced any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.52 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Lindstrom vs Phillies (not updated since last series):

Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.55 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Sanchez vs Phillies (not updated since last series):

Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.287/.355

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.464

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .313/.430/.573

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.341/.529

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .263/.371/.513

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .309/.367/.649

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .293/.338/.418

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .235/.335/.367

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as acounterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .269/.311/.463

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .283/.434/.517

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .214/.267/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF John Mayberry (R): .184/.231/.469

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTEr: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.84 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 12/36, 1 3B, 4 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/35, 2 2B, 1 BB, 13 K
Ross: 7/32, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 7/23, 4 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 6/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 5/11, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coghlan: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Carroll: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.87 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.44 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Marlins:

Cantu: 4/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 2/11, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 1/6, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Coghlan: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 Bb, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.90 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Marlins:

Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.18 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.03 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.88 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Marlins:

Helms: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 2/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Carroll: 1 BB

Ryan Madson (R): 3.02 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.40 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hermida: 0/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K. 1 HBP
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.47 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Marlins:

Baker: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ross: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coghlan: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 6/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cantu: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coghlan: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.14 ERA, 7.5 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 6.27 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Marlins:

Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 1.64 ERA, 0.8 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.79 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Marlins:

Helms: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cantu: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nolasco: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.16 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.17 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Marlins:

Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/7, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coghlan: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

THREE AGES OF FAN ALL-STAR VOTING

Matt Swartz — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:36:23 -0000

THREE AGES OF FAN ALL-STAR VOTING

I published this article over at StatSpeak detailing my finding that there were three different periods of All-Star voting-- what I call the Early Era, the Cable Era, and the Internet Era-- in which fans had very different All-Star voting tendencies.

THREE AGES OF FAN ALL-STAR VOTING

Matt Swartz — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:36:17 -0000

THREE AGES OF FAN ALL-STAR VOTING

Phillies vs. Pirates: July 10-12

Matt Swartz — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:31:55 -0000

The Phillies (45-38) look to continue their winning home stand against the Pirates (38-47) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park before all but four of them will take a nice relaxing All-Star Break. Just a week ago, the Phillies were only two games over .500 and only barely in first in the NL East. Now, they have swept the rival Mets and taken three of four from the Reds, and they come into this series with a two-game lead over the Marlins who refuse to be as bad as sabermetricians tell them they are, a solid five game lead over the Braves, and a lead over the Mets that has grown from one game to five and a half in just a week. The Pirates were still hanging around a couple weeks ago, but have lost eight of eleven and are now in last place and are a full eight games out of first in the NL Central.

The Pirates are in a slow rebuilding process. Neil Huntington took the helm at GM just a year and a half ago and is transforming the Pirates into a younger better team. Huntington is what they call a "new school" GM, and has utilized sabermetrics in trying to rebuild the Pirates. While they have shown some signs of improvement, they are still not quite a good baseball team yet. They have a lot of young talent, and should become more dangerous in the next few years.

Their lineup is pretty right-handed but they do have a solid stream of hitters that they did not have a couple years ago. Each of the first six hitters has a decent chance of hitting a mistake out of the park, but none of them are perennial power hitters. The seventh hitter for the Pirates is our old friend, Jason Jaramillo, who the Phillies traded for Ronnie Paulino who they subsequently shipped to the Giants for Jack Taschner who they designated for assignment a couple days ago. The Pirates' bench is pretty weak, and there is not really anyone to be afraid of coming off the bench.

The Pirates' bullpen has been in flux throughout the year, constantly making me update my Pirates file on my computer for series previews. They do not have any lights out relievers at this point, though they do have a few guys who can get you out. The only lefty in the pen is John Grabow, who is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher (though he occassionally throws his slider) and as a result does not have a deep platoon split. This should give the Phillies the opportunity to set up the lefties in their lineup the way that they would like without worrying about vulnerabilities to a late inning LOOGY.

Why does that matter? Because Raul Ibanez is back. He spent three weeks on the disabled list with a strained groin after cooling off from a red hot start. Reports are that he will be in the lineup tonight after doubling in his presumably final rehab start in the minors. Everyone should remember that we are getting Raul Ibanez back, and not necessarily the recincarnated Babe Ruth we had hitting in his uniform earlier this year. But he is still a very talented hitter that should make both the Phillies bench and lineup stronger in coming back.

Friday night's matchup will be Joe Blanton against Zach Duke. Blanton has baffled me this year by posting strikeout numbers that far exceeded his career averages without throwing any more swinging strikes, any more called strikes, or adding any new pitches to his repertoire. He just suddenly seemed to improve...unless you look at his ERA which has been terrible without the peripherals to justify a decline at all. Blanton shut down the Mets for seven and a third strong innings on Sunday to complete the sweep and lowered his ERA by a solid amount. Zach Duke is the only left handed starter the Phillies will face this weekend. He does have better numbers against lefties than righties, but not an extreme split that would be concerning. He was projected to have an ERA near 5 this year, but has managed a very solid 3.28 ERA. This ERA is pretty surprising considering he has the same low strikeout and walk numbers that he's always had, and has induced even fewer groundballs than before. His BABIP is .273, which is a little bit on the lucky side, but enough to drop someone's ERA nearly two full runs? That could explain maybe half a run or a run, but not the rest. The reason is primarily that he has pitched far better with runners on base than with bases empty. The end result is that he is putting guys on base and stranding them. His opponents' OPS is nearly .100 points lower with runners on, and with multiple runners on, it's even lower than that. This is something Kyle Kendrick showed us is not a persistent skill. In fact, Duke will probably regress a lot and end up with an ERA over 4 this year, in my opinion.

On Saturday night, the Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound. Hamels had a lot of hype surrounding him going into this season, and the impression has been that he was not living up to it. That idea is belied by the fact that Hamels has been striking out more batters, walking fewer, and generating as many groundballs as last year. He has even generated the same number of infield flies. The only real difference is that he has seen a huge jump in his line drive singles and doubles and a huge decline in his outfield flyballs. That is not the kind of thing that just happens without changing back soon later-- it's not a persistent skill to generate 300 foot flyballs or avoid line drives. Specifically, his BABIP is .353. I proposed a theory a couple months ago that the lack of BABIP persistence for pitchers was not entirely based on BABIP being a matter of luck, but on hitters and pitchers adjusting to each other. I pointed out that if a hitter knew that an outside fastball was coming on every pitch, they would learn to just hit singles the opposite way and the pitcher would have a higher BABIP than .300. The thing is that pitcers just don't do that. They mix their pitches, akin to a mixed a strategy in game theory, and the result is that hitters try to guess right. When they do, they can make contact. If hitters can guess what's coming better, the pitcher will have a BABIP above .300 and the pitcher will adjust by the time any correlation would have showed up. The example that I like to give is that Kirk Gibson hit his famous homerun off Dennis Eckersley only because a scout told him that Eck always threw backdoor sliders to left handed power hitters on full counts. Gibson sat on it, made history. Guessing right leads to hitting the ball harder and any pitching coach worth his salt will notice this and make his pitchers adjust. Now, looking at Hamels BABIPs with one strike, I realized that they were very high and I wonder if Hamels hasn't been predictable regarding pitch selection on those pitches. Sure enough, after I formed this hypothesis, Hamels shut down the Reds allowing just three hits on 21 balls in play, and no hits on six balls in play with one strike. Hamels was able to get the second strike effectively against the Reds. Here's hoping he has adjusted.

The Pirates will counter with Ross Ohlendorf on Saturday evening. The right-hander has beaten projections of a mid-5's ERA with a 4.63 ERA thus far this year. This is despite the fact that he has struck out fewer batters than expected by a solid margin without improving in his walk or groundball rates. Ohlendorf has allowed fewer hits on balls in play to make up this difference. Ohlendorf performs far bettter against righties than lefties, and the Phillies will probably stack the lineup with lefties to try to score runs off him.

On Sunday, the Phillies will send J.A. Happ to the mound against Virgil Vasquez. Happ has been solid this year, though has been the beneficiary of good fortune himself. Vasquez was only called up to the majors a few starts ago by the Pirates after exhibiting excellent control in the minors.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Zach Duke (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Virgil Vasquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

PIRATES

LINE UP

1) CF Andrew McCutchen (R): .291/.346/.440

projection average (proj): .265/.330/.380
projected BB/PA (bb): 9%
projected K/AB (k): 19%
career gb% (gb): 47%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15% (2 of first 13 popups)
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 21% in first 19 groundballs in majors
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .305
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient hitter without a great eye, above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .955 vs .722 ops in minors; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb in minors
home/away (h/a): not enough info
pull/opposite (p/o): not enough info
anything else (other): none

2) 2B Freddy Sanchez (R): .316/.355/.477

proj: .290/.325/.410
bb: 5%
k: 11%
gb: 42%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315, which is exactly where i have him
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and poor eye
r/l: .718 vs .896 ops; 2.8 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .775 vs .749 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3) RF Delwyn Young (S): .315/.388/.403

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 18%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: poor eye, not very patient, below average contact
r/l: .761 vs .775 ops; 2.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .823 vs .717 ops; 2.6 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

4) 1B Adam LaRoche (L): .259/.345/.464

proj: .270/.340/.480
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 7%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .310; i have him at .301
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, average contact
r/l: .852 vs .752 ops; 1.9 vs 3.6 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .800 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Garrett Jones (L): .290/.333/.613

proj: .255/.310/.425
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41% in minors
iff: 17% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a great eye, so-so patience, below average contact
r/l: .814 vs .690 ops in minor league career; 2.0 vs 5.2 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like a pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Andy LaRoche (R): .269/.346/.487

proj: .245/.330/.400
bb: 11%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: average eye, average patient, average contact
r/l: .661 vs .562 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .661 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

7) C Jason Jaramillo (S): .255/.327/.389

proj: .250/.310/.360
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 18%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, decent contact
r/l: .681 vs .747 ops in minors; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) SS Jack Wilson (R): .270/.304/.403

proj: .270/.320/.375
bb: 6%
k: 11%
gb: 44%
iff: 14%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: pretty good eye, pretty patient, good contact
r/l: .667 vs .753 ops; 2.7 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .659 ops; 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Robinson Diaz (R): .295/.314/.375

proj: .275/.310/.380
bb: 3%
k: 9%
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 12% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: bad eye, not patient, good contact
r/l: .711 vs .731 ops in minors; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Ramon Vazquez (L): .243/.351/.279

proj: .250/.330/.370
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 5%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .728 vs .500 ops; 1.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .677 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Brandon Moss (L): .253/.305/.369

proj: .265/.325/.430
bb: 9%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .330
s/c/z: decent eye but not patient, average contact
r/l: .708 vs .691 ops; 3.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .792 vs .620 ops; 2.2 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: somewhat extreme pull hitter
other: none

IF/OF Steve Pearce (R): .083/.214/.167 in 14 PA; .277/.363/.476 in 268 PA in AAa

proj: .270/.330/.450
bb: 7%
k: 19%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, below average contact
r/l: .634 vs .884 ops; 2.8 vs 5.0 k/bb (151 vs 55 PA)
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Jeff Salazar (L): 0 for 3 in majors; .265/.325/.415 in 317 PA in AAA

proj: .250/.340/.380
bb: 11%
k: 20%
gb: 35%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, so-so contact
r/l: .727 vs .591 ops; only 22 PA vs LHP though
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Zach Duke (L): 3.28 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb, 7% sl, 0.1% ct
r/l: .811 vs .733 ops; 1.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .812 ops; 2.2 vs 1.7 k/bb

Duke vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Ross Ohlendorf (R): 4.63 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 66% fb, 20% sl, 14% ch, 0.5% cb
r/l: .691 vs .945 ops; 2.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .861 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Ohlendorf vs Phillies:

Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Virgil Vasquez (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.61 FIP, 44% GB in majors (18 IP), in 79.2 IP in AAA: 4.18 ERA, 1.1 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 40% in majors
pitches: 56% fb, 21% sl, 13% cb, 10% ch, 0.5% ct
r/l: pretty even in minors; hit a little harder by lefties in minors but similar k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Vazquez: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Paul Maholm (L): 4.60 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 54% fb, 14% sl, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: .801 vs .558 ops; 1.6 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .699 vs .818 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Maholm vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/14, 1 BB, 5 K
Rollins: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Charlie Morton (R): 4.29 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.3 BB?9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 65% fb, 16% ch, 11% cb, 8% sl
r/l: .715 vs .925 ops; 1.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .887 vs .720 ops; 1.2 vs 1.1 k/bb

Morton vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL: Matt Capps (R): 4.71 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 76% fb, 16% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .657 vs .702 ops; 5.4 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .652 vs .705 ops; 4.0 vs 4.2 k/bb

Capps vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Chavez (R): 3.22 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.29 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 17% sl, 0.3% sf, 0.1% ct
r/l: .896 vs .547 ops; 2.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .570 vs .930 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb

Chavez: has not faced any Phillies

John Grabow (L): 3.49 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 49% fb, 37% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .750 vs .720 ops; 1.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: .718 vs .763 ops; 2.1 vs 2.0 k/bb

Grabow vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Evan Meek (R): 2.76 ERA, 6.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERRA< 4.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ch, 12% ct, 11% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .903 vs 658 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .982 ops; 0.8 vs 0.5 k/bb

Meek vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1 BB

Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/9, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Steven Jackson (R): 3.44 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 55% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% sf, 17% sl, 6% ch
r/l: better against RHB in minors noticeably
h/a: not enough info

Jackson: has not played any Phillies

Jeff Karstens (R): 4.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 56% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch, 13% cb
r/l: .849 vs .785 ops; 1.6 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .776 ops; 1.2 vs 1.2 k/bb

Karstens vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

SENT TO AAA: Ian Snell (R): 5.36 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.56 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% sl, 14% cb, 10% ch
r/l: .745 vs .880 ops; 2.9 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .813 ops; 1.8 vs 1.9 k/bb

Snell vs Phillies:

Rollins: 12/19, 1 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/13, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, 1 Sf
Utley: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 2/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .227/.281/.351

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.463

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .307/.427/.578

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.332/.522

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .268/.373/.522

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.339/.407

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .239/.340/.374

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.342/.382

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .274/.319/.472

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .271/.427/.458

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .200/.273/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF John Mayberry (R): .200/.250/.511

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Pirates:

Hinske: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 10/14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Vazquez: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.70 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 2/3, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.04 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Pirates

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERa, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.17 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Pirates:

Hinske: 10/34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Monroe: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Adam LaRoche: 2/8, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Sanchez: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wilson: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Vazquez: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.89 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Pirates:

Wilson: 4/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Sanchez: 1/8, 2 BB, 5 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/4, 0 BB, 1 K
HInske: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Monroe: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.09 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.39 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 3/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.09 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.12 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Pirates:

Hinske: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Wilson: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.98 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Pirates:

Wilson: 2/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Sanchez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hinske: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Morgan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 2.92 ERA, 8.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 6.05 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Pirates:

Hinske: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 3/5, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 1.80 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Pirates:

Ad. LaRoche: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
An. LaRoche: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Young: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Pirates:

LaRoche: 0/10, 1 BB, 4 K
Sanchez: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Morgan: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hinske: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Pirates:

Sanchez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Wilson: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaROche: 1 BB
Andy LaRoche: 1 BB
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs. Reds: July 6-9

Matt Swartz — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:41:43 -0000

The Phillies (42-37) head into this four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (40-40) in a much better position than they were in before this weekend. After sweeping the rival New York Mets, the Phillies now have a one-game lead in first over the Marlins and a four game lead over both the Braves and Mets. The Reds were not considered contenders by many heading into this season but they are only three games out of a middling NL Central. That would have been even closer had they not just lost two of three to the Cardinals, who currently lead the Central, but the Reds are certainly within striking distance.

MATCHUPS:
MONDAY, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
TUESDAY, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Aaron Harang (R)
WEDNESDAY, 7:05-- Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Homer Bailey (R)
THURSDAY, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Micah Owings (R)

After the jump, I preview both teams' players, splits (not including 2009 yet), and the matchups. Don't forget to vote for me this week in BP Idol!

REDS

LINE UP

1) LF Chris Dickerson (L): .278/.377/.392

proj: .250/.330/.420
bb: 11%
k: 32%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330ish which might be a bit high
s/c/z: averag eye, average patient, poor contact skill
r/l: .877 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .984 vs .789 ops; 1.7 vs 2.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

2) CF Willy Taveras (R): .244/.288/.302

projection average (proj): .270/.330/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 16.5%
career gb% (gb): 53%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 12%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .320-- does poorly on flyballs & linedrives due to weak power; very high on grounders and hits a lot of

them; .320 might be high be probably is realistic
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient, but he gets thrown a lot of strikes; pretty good eye
righty/lefty (r/l): .675 vs .656 ops; 2.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .686 vs .656 ops; 2.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

3) 1B Joey Votto (L): .364/.454/.619

proj: .285/.365/.490
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 5%
babip: does well on flyballs because he avoids popups, not particularly fast, spreads ball around well; projected .320-.330 which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, not particularly patient, not quite average contact skill
r/l: .926 vs .849 ops; 1.4 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .917 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: great against finesse pitchers

4) 2B Brandon Phillips (R): .268/.337/.460

proj: .270/.320/.440
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected slightly below average which makes sense given popout rate and mediocre power
s/c/z: free swinger, poor eye, somewhat poor contact skill
r/l: .687 vs .846 ops; 3.5 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .766 vs .700 ops; 2.7 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Jay Bruce (L): .217/.295/.462

proj: .275/.330/.500
bb: 7.5%
k: 26.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 17%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high despite high popup rate; good power and pretty fast, so maybe not projected all that much higher than it should (.325ish projection, should be .310 or

so, i'd say)
s/c/z: free swinger, poor contact skill
r/l: .907 vs .555 ops; 2.8 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .903 vs .676 ops; 2.1 vs 4.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) Edwin Encarnacion (R): .125/.267/.194

proj: .275/.360/.480
bb: 9.5%
k: 19%
gb: 38%
iff: 17%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .300 but i have him at .283.
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, average contact
r/l: .768 vs .834; 2.5 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .832 vs .747 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better as game goes on against starter

7) C Ramon Hernandez (R): .252/.333/.368

proj: .260/.320/.415
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 46%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, average patience, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .735 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .725 ops; 1.7 both ways
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) SS Paul Janish (R): .233/.300/.288

proj: .235/.300/.350
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 34%
iff: 18%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .275-.280, but that seems even too high given popup rate and speed
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, okay contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .520 vs .768 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .637 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Ryan Hanigan (R): .338/.428/.404

proj: .265/.340/.360
bb: 10%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 16%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average. high groundball rate, but high popup rate and weak power indicates this is probably way too high
s/c/z: good eye and contact, very patient
r/l: .801 vs .643 ops; 0.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .819 vs .645 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Laynce Nix (L): .251/.301/.497

proj: .250/.300/.350
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected about average which seems reasonable, not much power and pops out a lot, but he still does have decent speed
s/c/z: free swinger, not a great eye, poor contact skill
r/l: .719 vs .486 ops; 5.2 vs 10.0 k/bb
h/a: .703 vs .666 ops; 5.0 vs 6.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

OF Jonny Gomes (R): 333/.427/.587

proj: .240/.340/.470
bb: 11%
k: 30%
gb: 29%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected just under .300
s/c/z: impatient, so-so eye, below average contact
r/l: .745 vs .898 ops; 3.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .795 vs .798 ops; 2.3 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers and finesse pitchers

IF Drew Sutton (S): .000/.000/.000

proj: .240/.340/.410
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: ?
babip: .320 in minors
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: .769 vs .857 ops career in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr. (R): .258/.313/.402

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, good contact
r/l: .696 vs .709 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .682 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Alex Gonzalez (R): .214/.256/.302

proj: .255/.310/.410
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 35%
iff: 18%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected only around .290 but given high popup rate, weak power, poor eye, it seems that may be overestimating him
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .691 vs .690 ops; 4.0 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .681 vs .701 ops; 3.8 vs 3.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

SENT TO AAA: OF Darnell McDonald (R): .154/.250/.225

proj: .260/.320/.410
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 56%
iff: 20%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected slightly above average (.310ish) which seems possible given high groundball rate. infield flyrate is high in majors, but that's just 3 popups in 15 flyballs
s/c/z: not all that patient, and bad eye, very bad contact skill too
r/l: .286 vs .571 ops (29 & 47 PA); 4.0 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SENT TO AAA: 3B Adam Rosales (R): .197/.286/.276

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 19%
ifh: 14%
babip: high popup rate so may be overprojected
s/c/z: pretty good eye, patient, not great contact
r/l: .688 vs .842 ops in minors last year
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to spread ball around well
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Johnny Cueto (R): 2.69 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 HR/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .768 vs .759 ops; 3.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .776 vs .752 ops; 2.7 vs 2.1 k/bb

Cueto: has not played any Phillies

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Aaron Harang (R): 3.86 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% sl, 3% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .784 vs .735 ops; 3.6 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .757 ops; 2.9 vs 3.1 k/bb

Harang vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/21, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Utley: 7/14, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Homer Bailey (R): 5.94 ERA, 8.1 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.50 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 71% fb, 11% cb, 10% ch, 8% swl
r/l: .854 vs .817 ops; 1.0 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Bailey vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Micah Owings (R): 4.48 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.30 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 HR/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 15% ch, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .697 vs .828 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .760 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Owings vs Phillies:

Victorino: 1/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Bronson Arroyo (R): 5.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.98 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 47% fb, 20% sl, 19% cb, 12% ch, 3% ct
r/l: .709 vs .828 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Arroyo vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 4/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 SF
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Edinson Volquez (R): 4.35 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 9% cb, 4% sl
r/l: .767 vs .716 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .731 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Volquez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Cordero (R): 1.80 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.98 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 52% fb, 37% sl, 2% ch, 0.2% sf
r/l: .656 vs .695 ops; 3.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .685 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Cordero vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dobbs: 0/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

David Weathers (R): 2.63 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.95 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 33% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .737 vs .791 ops; 2.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .739 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb

Weathers vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/10, 2 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Arthur Rhodes (L): 1.88 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.56 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .733 vs .611 ops; 2.0 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .705 vs .684 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Rhodes vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 2/7, 3 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Danny Herrera (L): 1.97 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.97 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 38% fb, 25% ch, 21% sl, 13% cb, 2% ct
r/l: 1.105 vs .326 ops; 1.6 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.4 k/bb

Herrera vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Nick Masset (R): 1.67 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.88 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 13% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .764 vs .831 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .937 vs .637 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Masset vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROllins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Josh Roenicke (R): 0.00 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.76 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 27% thus far, 50% in minors
pitches: 72% fb, 17% ct, 8% sl, 2% cb
r/l: little better against righties in minors but not much
h/a: not enough info

Roenicke: has not faced any Phillies

Carlos Fisher (R): 3.93 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37% thus far, 56% in minors
pitches: 61% fb, 34% sl, 4% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 3.0 vs 2.1 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Fisher: has not faced any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Mike Lincoln (R): 8.22 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 3.5 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 9.21 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 58% fb, 30% cb, 5% sl, 5% ct, 3% ch
r/l: .779 vs .861 ops; 1.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .850 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Lincoln vs Phillies:

Cairo: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SENT TO AAA: Ramon Ramirez (R): 7.71 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 11.6 K/9, 3.9 HR/9, 8.61 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 54% fb, 20% sl, 26% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .566 vs .723 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .587 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SENT TO AAA: Jared Burton (R): 4.81 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 52% ct, 25% fb, 17% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .654 vs .675 ops; 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .662 vs .663 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Burton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.266/.345

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.363/.447

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield

fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .301/.426/.559

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .252/.326/.519

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.365/.482

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .209/.244/.535

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.340/.415

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line

drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes

average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .234/.337/.364

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good

babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .248/.345/.386

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.293/.433

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power

hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power

against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .276/.408/.466

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .214/.333/.286

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Reds:

Phillips: 1/12, 1 BB, 6 K
Bruce: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

TUESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.63 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Reds

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 6.1 IP, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

THURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.72 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.69 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Reds:

Hernandez: 5/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Nix: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Gonzalez: 4/6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Philips: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.77 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 3/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.06 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.73 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Phillips: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Taveras: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Nix: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Arroyo: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.32 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Taveras: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.19 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Reds:

Taveras: 3/15, 1 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 2/12, 2 BB, 6 K
Hernandez: 4/7, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.00 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Reds:

Hernandez: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Votto: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Phillips: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 k
Bruce: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Reds:

Phillips: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/3, 2 BB (IBB), 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:20:42 -0000

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Braves: June 30-July 2

Matt Swartz — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:06:33 -0000

The Phillies (39-34) head down to Atlanta this week to play a three game set against the Atlanta Braves (35-40). The Phillies took two of three from the Jays to salvage what was a disappointing performance in interleague play, and now have a 2.5-game lead over the Marlins, a 3-game lead over the Mets, a 5-game lead over the Braves, and probably a 163-game lead over the Nationals. The Braves need this series to go very well for them, and they will send out their top three pitchers against the Phils. Blanton and Hamels have been the top two Phils pitchers thus far and they will go Tuesday and Wednesday. Happ has been moved into Thursday's start. I originally had done profiles for Carrasco and Carpenter, two potential starters for Thursday, but Happ has been confirmed as Thursday's starter. I left them in anyway-- enjoy.

MATCHUPS:
Tuesday, 7:00-- Blanton (R) vs. Lowe (R)
Wednesday, 7:00-- Hamels (L) vs. Jurrjens (R)
Thursday, 7:00-- Happ (L) vs. Vazquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the player, their splits, and the match-ups.

And don't forget to vote for me in Baseball Prospectus Idol-- voting closes at 11pm today (Tuesday)!

BRAVES

LINE UP

1) CF Nate McLouth (L): .259/.340/.463

proj: .270/.345/.460
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .292 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: patient, decent eye, good contact
r/l: .814 vs .748 ops; 1.6 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .826 vs .766 ops; 1.6 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: improves against starter as game goes on

2) SS Yunel Escobar (R): .292/.348/.432

proj: .290/.360/.410
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 56%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected high (around .320) which makes sense given low infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: very good eye, reasonably patient, good contact
r/l: .811/.757 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
h/a: .826/.760 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around
other: none

3) 3B Chipper Jones (S): .290/.407/.471

proj: .310/.420/.560
bb: 14%
k: 15.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 6% (about 4% from 2006-2008 though; however, 14% in 2009)
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .340 which might even be low, given my BABIP projection system. he rarely pops out (though he has this year) and spreads ball around well. he hits his flyballs very far leading to higher flyball BABIP. he also does very well on line drives which is not surprising given his power and contact mix.
s/c/z: excellent eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .972/.909 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .987/.924 ops; 0.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter both ways but plenty of spreading the ball around for a power hitter
other: none

4) C Brian McCann (L): .323/.412/.538

proj: .295/.365/.505
bb: 9%
k: 13%
gb: 38%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected a little above average which is pretty reasonable given his power. he should do well on line drives, hitting the ball deep into gaps. he pops out a decent amount and doesn't spread the ball around amazingly, so he shouldn't be all that hot on groundballs or flyballs, but he should be above average on babip.
s/c/z: okay contact skill. his eye is obvious a major question mark since he's just coming off the disabled list to solve the problem with his eyes. historically, he has had an above average eye but not particularly patient. this year he started off the year patient with a poor eye.
r/l: .886 vs .784 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .852 vs .860 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; poor power on road but better average at home
p/o: pretty solid pull hitter; typical for a power hitter
other: he should be coming off the disabled list today, but it remains to be seen what effect his new glasses and eye surgery will have. hopefully something that takes three days to adjust to, and then i wish him well. mccann is the kind of player that i would love if he wasn't on a division rival's team-- solid eye and good power, smart player.

5) LF Garret Anderson (L): .280/.308/.387

proj: .280/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 41%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: free swinger with previously decent but now eroding eye; average contact skill
r/l: .813/.751 ops; 2.2 vs 5.1 k/bb
h/a: .792/.797 ops; 2.8 k/bb both ways
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

6) 1B Casey Kotchman (L): .270/.328/.377

proj: .280/.350/.440
bb: 9%
k: 10%
gb: 52%
iff: 14%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected below average (.280s); makes sense since he pops up a lot, is slow, and doesn't spread ball around field well
s/c/z: okay eye, not very patient, good contact skill
r/l: .751/.745 ops; 1.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .763/.737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: very good against finesse pitchers

7) Jeff Francoeur (R): .246/.279/.346

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected slightly above average but given infield fly rate, that might be optimistic; he does spread ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits
s/c/z: major free swinger without a good eye-- has improved high this year but still swings at way too many pitches out of the strike zone, slightly above average contact skill
r/l: .714/.824 ops; 4.3 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .793/.700 ops; 3.2 vs 4.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not that much for a power hitter
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers

8) 2B Kelly Johnson (L): .218/.289/.367

projection average (proj): .280/.360/.450
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 39%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 8%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 6%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected high (.330ish), has done well on flyballs despite high infield fly rate. probably explains some of poor season thus far.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): pretty good eye and pretty patient, average contact skill
righty/lefty (r/l): .790/.794 ops; 1.6 vs 2.2 k/bb (.363 BABIP vs lefties unsustainable)
home/away (h/a): .802/.781 ops; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

BENCH

C David Ross (R): .293/.396/.573

proj: .220/.320/.400
bb: 12%
k: 28%
gb: 34%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: below average for sure-- makes poor/weak contact and pops up a lot. has decent power, but still not great.
s/c/z: very good eye; not especially patient; poor contact skill
r/l: .740 vs .781 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .724 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

UI Martin Prado (R): .280/.345/.432

proj: .300/.355/.410
bb: 8%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 12%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high, but that's based on historical success on groundballs and flyballs that doesn't seem realistic given his lack of significant power
s/c/z: patient, pretty good eye, very good contact
r/l: .838 vs .770; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .833; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pretty clear opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Diory Hernandez (R): .140/.186/.364

proj: .265/.305/.375
bb: 4.5%
k: 16%
gb: 53% in minors
iff: 15% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around average
s/c/z: early indications are that he's impatience without a very good eye and only mediocre contact skill
r/l: pretty even in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Gregor Blanco (L): .174/.240/.174

proj: .265/.365/.350
bb: 13%
k: 21%
gb: 50%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325; i have him at .295
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, very patient
r/l: .659 vs .676 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .624 vs .705 ops; 1.5 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads balll around well
other: might be better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Diaz (R): .272/.352/.424

proj: .295/.335/.440
bb: 4%
k: 19%
gb: 49%
iff: 4%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected very high which is actually probably reasonable given speed, low pop up rate, ability to spread the ball around, and his decent power. historically it's probably been higher than it should so perhaps the projected around .340-.350 are too high but .330 seems reasonable.
s/c/z: horrible eye and major free swinger without quite average contact skill. still thrown a lot of strikes but that has gone this year as his stats have too.
r/l: .714 vs .857 ops; 5.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .788 ops; 4.0 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but pretty much spreads ball around well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UI Omar Infante (R): .349/.389/.430

proj: .280/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected pretty high but that might be overstating due to speed since he does pop up a lot and doesn't have great power (so he doesn't hit the ball that hard or far). historically average to high babip probably lucky.
s/c/z: okay eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .694 vs .707 ops; 2.8 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .650 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: 1B/OF Greg Norton (S): .098/.275/.146

proj: .260/.355/.415
bb: 12.5%
k: 23%
gb: 40%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected average which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, reasonably patient, slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .789 vs .648 ops; 1.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .759 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter, slightly moreso as lefty
other: none

SENT TO AAA: CF Jordan Schafer (L): .204/.313/.287

proj: .240/.310/.400
bb: 8%
k: 25% (but 43% thus far in 2009)
gb: 44%
iff: 12% (2 of 16 in 2009)
ifh: 10% (2 in 20 GB in 2009)
babip: has been very high but probably not much reason for that; pops up a lot and doesn't spread ball around well
s/c/z: swings a lot with terrible contact skill thus far
r/l: .729 vs .743 thus far in 2009 but that's only with his high BABIP; approximately 1.9 k/bb without much split
h/a: not enough info
p/o: thus far extreme pull hitter
other: none

SENT BACK TO AAA: 1B Barbaro Canizares (R): .235/.235/.294

proj: seemingly unprojected 29 year old
bb: 8% in minors
k: 14% in minors
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: .351 in minors
s/c/z: early indications show meidocre eye with poor contact skill and average patience
r/l: minor league career: .907 vs .802 ops
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Derek Lowe (R): 4.53 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .638 vs .735 ops; 3.4 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .654 vs .719 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/b

Lowe vs Phillies (**excluding postseason 2009**)

Feliz: 5/26, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Ibanez: 2/22, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 7/23, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/19, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/15, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 SF
Utley: 5/17, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K (also homered off him in NLCS 2009)
Dobbs: 0/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Jair Jurrjens (R): 2.93 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .652 vs .744 ops; 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .785 vs .616 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Jurrjens vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 4/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/12, 1 Bb, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 Bb, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Javier Vazquez (R): 3.04 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.61 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9,
gb: 39%
pitches: 53% fb, 23% sl, 13% cb, 11% ch, 0.3% ct
r/l: .730 vs .743 ops; 4.1 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .752 ops; 3.7 vs 3.1 k/bb

Vazquez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/50, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Stairs: 2/24, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Feliz: 4/17, 3 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 7/19, 4 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 9 K
Werth: 2/14, 2 BB, 5 K
Utley: 5/15, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Victorino: 2/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Kenshin Kawakami (R): 4.25 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.20 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.22 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: --
pitches: (in 2009)- 62% fb, 14% cb, 12% ct, 10% sf, 2% ch, 0.6% sl
r/l: .998 vs .891 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb (in 2009)
h/a: .790 vs 1.203 ops; 2.2 vs 0.75 k/bb (in 2009)

Kawakami vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Tommy Hanson (R): 3.13 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.58 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 32% (39% in minors)
pitches: 55% fb, 22% sl, 18% cb, 5% ch
r/l: .912 vs .936 ops; 3.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Hanson: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Jo-Jo Reyes (L): 7.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 50% GB rate

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 66% fb, 11% sl, 15% ch, 8% cb
r/l: .920 vs .642 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .851 vs .877 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Reyes vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 4/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Utley: 5/15, 1 3B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/11, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Bruntlett: 0/3, 1 Bb, 2 K
Coste: 3/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL Mike Gonzalez (L): 2.06 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 12.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 57% fb, 42% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .608 vs .634 ops; 2.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .598 vs .39 ops; 2.5 vs 2.7 k/bb

Gonzalez vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1 BB
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Rafael Soriano (R): 1.30 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 77% fb, 22% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .532 vs .694 ops; 4.3 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .574 ops; 3.1 vs 3.8 k/bb

Soriano vs Phillies:

Dobbs: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Peter Moylan (R): 4.34 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.41 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 62%
pitches: 79% fb, 17% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .578 vs .662 ops; 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .521 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Moylan vs Phillies:

Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 2 BB (2 IBB0, 1 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

Boone Logan (L): 13.50 ERA, 13.5 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 7.56 FIP, 80% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 50% fb, 46% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Logan vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Eric O'Flaherty (L): 3.90 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% fb, 42% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .856 vs .602 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .743 vs .732 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb

O'Flaherty vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kris Medlen (R): 6.12 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb
r/l: .699 vs .667 ops; 1.5 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .607 vs .708 ops; 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Medlen: has not played any Phillies:

Manny Acosta (R): 2.45 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.88 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 64% fb, 20% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .616 vs .737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .636 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Acosta vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Buddy Carlyle (R): 8.84 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 73% fb, 19% ct, 5% ch, 2% cb, 0.2% sl
r/l: .696 vs .942 ops; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .838 ops; 2.25 vs 2.05 k/bb

Carlyle vs Phillies (not updated for third series):

Rollins: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 2/5, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 Bb, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 2 BB (1 iBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Jeff Bennett (R): 3.18 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.59 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.2 ERA, 4.0 BB?9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 74% fb, 21% sl, 3% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Bennett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF

SENT TO AAA: James Parr (R): 5.79 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.56 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 13% ch, 9% cb, 5% sl
r/l: 1.090 vs .782 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb (62 vs 69 PA only)
h/a: not enough info

Parr vs Phillies (not updated for third series):

Howard: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .297/.365/.448

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .299/.430/.547

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.332/.546

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .269/.354/.493

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.294/.594

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.330/.409

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.354/.390

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .129/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .230/.284/.419

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.333/.388

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

C Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.87 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Braves:

Anderson: 11/38, 2 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Kotchman: 7/23, 4 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Escobar: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
McCann: 6/7, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Jones: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 0/2, 1 BB, 2 K
Ross: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.44 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Braves:

Francoeur: 6/33, 0 Bb, 10 K, 1 SF
McCann: 9/24, 5 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Diaz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/17, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Jones: 6/17, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Escobar: 1/13, 1 2B, 5 BB, 3 K
Prado: 3/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kotchman: 4/9, 3 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Anderson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Braves:

Johnson: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
McCann: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 1 BB
Schafer: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

POSSIBLE CALL UP: Carlos Carrasco (R): 4.92 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.50 FIP, 45% GB in AAA

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 44% in minor league career
pitches: fastball/changeup primarily, mixes in a slider I believe
r/l: 2.7 k/bb vs rhp, 1.7 k/bb vs lhp in minor league career
h/a: not enough info

Carrasco: has not faced any Braves

POSSIBLE CALL UP: Andrew Carpenter: 5 ER in 4.1 IP, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 8gb/15bip in majors; AAA numbers-- 2.75 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 HR/9

gb: 40% in minors

pitches: last year in 1 inning of work in MLB, he threw 73% fb, 13% sf, 7% sl, 7% ch

r/l: seems better against righties in minors

h/a: not enough info

Carpenter: has not pitched against any Braves

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.58 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Braves:

Anderson: 34/107, 9 BB, 1 3B, 5 HR, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 8/27, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
McCann: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Jones: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Diaz: 4/12, 1 2B, 3 Bb, 1 K, 1 SF
Escobar: 4/15, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Prado: 6/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Infante: 3/12, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sf
Kotchman: 6/12, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Braves

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.86 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.33 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Braves:

Jones: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Francoeur: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
McCann: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Diaz: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Anderson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Braves:

Francoeur: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Jones: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
McCann: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/4, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Escobar: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Anderson: 1 BB
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 2 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Escobar: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Braves:

Anderson: 3/10, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 0/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Kotchman: 5/8,3 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McCann: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.18 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Braves:

Anderson: 15/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
Jones: 10/31, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
McCann: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Francoeur: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
JohnsOn: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Blanco: 1 BB
Kotchman: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.48 ERA, 10.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.74 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Braves:

Anderson: 5/15, 1 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Jones: 3/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
McCann: 1/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.63 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Braves:

Francoeur: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
McCann: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Braves:

Anderson: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
McCann: 3/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
JOnes: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Braves:

Francoeur: 5/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
McCann: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1 BB

Phillies at Blue Jays: June 26-28

Matt Swartz — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 19:19:43 -0000

I didn't get a chance to post this on time, thanks in part to BP Idol's "Deadline Week", but I did do all the work and this should be a good reference point for Saturday and Sunday afternoons' games.

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:07-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Romero (L)

Saturday, 1:07-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Mills (L)

Sunday, 1:07-- Jamie Moyre (L) vs. Brian Tallet (L)

After the split, I preview all the players, their splits, and the matchups

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .294/.393/.432

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .306/.346/.497

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .267/.322/.432

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .255/.310/.404

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .307/.386/.550

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .329/.304/.477

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .279/.400/.525

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .263/.300/.423

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .257/.391/.354

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .263/.263/.368

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .217/.217/.217

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .246/.318/.388

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Russ Adams (L): .333/.385/.333

proj: .240/.305/.370
bb: 8%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .275
s/c/z: patient with good eye, good contact. sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .723 vs .521 ops; 1.4 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .748 vs .631 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.59 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.55 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K

Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Mills (L): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 4gb/14bip

proj avg: 5.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 29% so far
pitches: 41% fb, 33% ch, 26% cb
r/l: better vs RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Mills vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Brian Tallet (L): 4.36 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Brett Cecil (L): 5.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.43 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 53% so far
pitches: 63% fb, 21% sl, 12% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.064 vs .765 ops; 1.9 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Cecil: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Scott Richmond (R): 3.68 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABED LIST: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

Jason Frasor (R): 2.10 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.71 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.14 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 5.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.94 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 4.09 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 65% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 1.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.84 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 1 BB

Mayberry: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Jeremy Accardo (R): 3 IP,1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2gb/6bip

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 15% sf. 6% ct
r/l: .741 vs .552 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .639 ops; 2.6 vs 2.1 k/bb

Accardo vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WErth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.366/.456

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.430/.555

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .254/.329/.551

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .257/.344/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .289/.332/.398

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

7) LF John Mayberry (R): .320/.346/.760

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.359/.391

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .242/.337/.396

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .145/.234/.218

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .233/.288/.425

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Millar: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Scutaro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Barajas: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Hill: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rios: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.57 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 14/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 14/32, 1 2B, 3 HR, BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 10/22, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 8/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 3/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 8/25, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Adams: 3/14, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K

Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 4/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2 BB
Lind: 1 BB

McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Overbay: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Scutaro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1 BB

Overbay: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/13, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.22 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 8/20, 3 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Adams:1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.72 ERA, 10.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.68 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.46 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rolen: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Adams: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Barajas: 1/1,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1/3,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

Phillies at Rays: June 23-25

Matt Swartz — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:24:44 -0000

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-31) and the Tampa Bay Rays (37-34) face off this week in a rematch of the 2008 World Series. Both teams return 18 of their 25-man playoff rosters, though the Rays return one of the Champions in the person of Pat Burrell. Since we last saw Pat the Bat, he has not exactly lit the American League on fire. He has struggled through injuries and a major power outage which has left him with an anemic .296 SLG and only a single homerun. Burrell was supposed to be the right-handed power threat that was going to fill in the Rays' weakness that may have cost them the title. The lack of major right-handed power left the Rays somewhat vulnerable to Phillies lefties, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, who helped the Phillies win three of their four World Series victories.

The Phillies enter Tuesday's action just barely holding on to a 1.5 game lead in the NL East, after dropping six in a row and eight of nine games on an ugly homestand. The Phillies are without Raul Ibanez, Brett Myers, Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, Brad Lidge for at least some of the some the series, and possibly Ryan Howard who is overcoming acute sinusitis. The Rays enter the series barely over .500 and six full games behind the Red Sox and in fourth place in the AL East.

Neither team enters into the series in great shape. When Jimmy Rollins stepped into the batters box last October against Scott Kazmir to ignite last year's World Series, both men were on top of the world. Kazmir had overcome arm troubles by focusing on his changeup and Rollins was coming off a strong season and a leadoff homerun in each of the clinching games in the Phillies' earlier playoff series. Now, Kazmir has been on the disabled list for over a month with a strained oblique and Rollins is hitting just .217.

The Phillies will send Jamie Moyer to the mound against the Rays on Tuesday night. Moyer has struggled this season, but has managed to recover a bit in a recent starts. The Rays counter with David Price, who the Phillies last saw in the bullpen last fall. Price has gotten off to a pretty good start this year in 26 innings though he has been very wild. The lefty will be tough on the Phillies, and they'll need to be patient and draw walks to succeed.

On Wednesday, Joe Blanton will take another shot at the Rays, though in an AL park, he will not have the opportunity to do so using his mighty bat. The Rays counter with Matt Garza who has been effective this season.

Thursday night, the Phillies send rookie lefty Antonio Bastardo to the mound. He has been up and down in a few starts this year. The Rays counter with Andy Sonnanstine. Sonnanstine has been pretty hittable this year, though has suffered some bad luck as well, putting up a very high 6.60 ERA thanks to a high BABIP and HR/FB rate. Still, the right-hander should be very hittable.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:08-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs. David Price (L)
Wednesday, 7:08-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Matt Garza (R)
Thursday, 7:08-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and the matchups.

RAYS

LINE UP

1) CF B.J. Upton (R): .240/.322/.359

projection average (proj): .275/.380/.430
projected BB/PA (bb): 13%
projected K/AB (k): 26%
career gb% (gb): 49%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 6%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 9%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .350; i have him at .319
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, patient, slightly below average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .748 vs .816 ops; 2.3 vs 1.5 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .761 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around very well
anything else (other): gets much better against a starter as game goeson

2) LF Carl Crawford (L): .307/.367/.435

proj: .290/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 10%
babip: i have him at .327 which is similar to what other systems say
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, slightly above average contact
r/l: .796 vs .701 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .794 vs .745 ops; 2.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

3) 3B Evan Longoria (R): .309/.392/.594

proj: .275/.345/.490
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. i have him at .302.
s/c/z: not a great eye, not impatient, slightly below average contact
r/l: .908 vs .905 ops; 2.6 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .862 vs .952 ops; 2.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitching

4) 1B Carlos Pena (L): .235/.371/.567

proj: .255/.370/.500
bb: 15%
k: 30%
gb: 36%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .283
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient, pretty poor contact
r/l: .903 vs .751 ops; 1.6 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .882 vs .831 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: significant pull hitter
other: none

5) 2B Ben Zobrist (S): .293/.400/.644

proj: .250/.335/.410
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7.5%
babip: projected around .285
s/c/z: good eye, very patient, above average contact
r/l: .755 vs .786 ops; 1.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .739 vs .786 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter from both sides
other: none

6) DH Pat Burrell (R): .240/.351/.296

proj: .245/.370/.465
bb: 17%
k: 26%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .285; i have him at .275
s/c/z: good eye (but less than before), very patient, average contact skill for last few years
r/l: .815 vs .942 ops; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .847 vs .847 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

7) SS Jason Bartlett (R): .373/.414/.589

proj: .275/.335/.370
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .320, but i have him at .302
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, pretty good contact
r/l: .679 vs .860 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .747 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

8) RF Gabe Gross (L): .266/.372/.419

proj: .255/.345/.425
bb: 12%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: i have him at .304 which is where most systems have him
s/c/z: good eye, patient, average contact
r/l: .779 vs .587 ops; 1.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .831 vs .685 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: better against starter as game goes on

9) C Dioner Navarro (S): .218/.242/.322

proj: .263/.335/.380
bb: 9%
k: 15%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .278
s/c/z: average patience, good eye, average contact
r/l: .658 vs .766 ops; 2.0 vs 1.25 k/bb
h/a: .695 vs .674 ops; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Michel Hernandez (R): .270/.292/.349

proj: .250/.305/.335
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 53% in minors
iff: 14% in mionrs
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .280
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, okay contact
r/l: .857/.643 ops split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Willy Aybar (S): .273/.379/.445

proj: .265/.340/.405
bb: 9.5%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .290; i have him at .285
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, good contact
r/l: .764 vs .792 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .798 vs .760 ops; 1.0 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty too but not as much
other: none

IF Joe Dillon (R): .348/.444/.478

proj: .250/.330/.400
bb: 10%
k: 19%
gb: 41%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: patient without a good eye, pretty good contact
r/l: in mionrs, better eye vs lefties, but hits better vs righties
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Gabe Kapler (R): .237/.318/.484

proj: .275/.325/.420
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, pretty good contact
r/l: .717 vs .827 ops; 1.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .695 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: David Price (L): 3.46 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.75 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% sl, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: little better against lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Price vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Matt Garza (R): 3.83 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.48 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 10% cb, 7% ch
r/l: .711 vs .725 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .693 vs .745 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Garza vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/10, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Andy Sonnanstine (R): 6.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 37% fb, 25% ct, 21% sl, 11% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .840 vs .767 ops; 3.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .795 vs .809 ops; 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb

Sonnanstine vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Jeff Niemann (R): 4.23 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 71% fb, 14% sl, 10% cb, 3% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .817 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .797 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Niemann: has not played any Phillies

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: James Shields (R): 3.36 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 42% fb, 24% ch, 17% cb, 16% ct, 1% sl
r/l: .737 vs .726 ops; 4.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .682 vs .788 ops; 4.1 vs 3.4 k/bb

Shields vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 0/11, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Dan Wheeler (R): 4.24 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 6% cb, 3% sf
r/l: .645 vs .839 ops; 3.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .744 vs .714 ops; 3.0 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wheeler vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Grant Balfour (R): 5.01 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 83% fb, 11% sl, 5% cb, 1% ch, 0.2% ct
r/l: .677 vs .677 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .716 ops; 2.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Balfour vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sf
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB (IBB)

J.P. Howell (L): 1.82 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.31 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 48% fb, 36% cb, 16% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .736 vs .698 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .709 vs .739 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Howell vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 2/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Nelson (R): 4.70 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 69% fb, 29% ch, 2% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .774 vs .686 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .710 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb

Nelson vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cotse: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Randy Choate (L): 1.93 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.06 FIP, 79% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 84% fb, 16% sl
r/l: .734 vs .665 ops; 0.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .735 ops; 1.8 vs 1.3 k/bb

Choate vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lance Cormier (R): 2.57 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 47% ct, 30% cb, 18% fb, 4% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .858 vs .818 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .904 vs .787 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Cormier vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Utley: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Winston Abreu (R): 9.00 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.0 FIP, 0% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 41% in minor leagues, 30% in brief major league experience
pitches: 50% fb, 45% sl, 5% ch
r/l: much better vs rhb in minors; wild against lefties
h/a: not enough info

Abreu vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Jason Isringhausen (R): 2.25 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ct, 11% cb, 3% sl
r/l: .649 vs .693 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .644 vs .701 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb

Isringhausen vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Utley: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.261/.338

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .304/.365/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.428/.547

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.332/.558

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) LF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.343/.456

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .215/.278/.431

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .294/.339/.409

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .260/.377/.415

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .244/.343/.407

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .157/.250/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Matt Stairs (L): .277/.424/.489

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

OF John Mayberry (R): .300/.300/.700

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.35 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.77 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Rays:

Kapler: 6/26, 2 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Pena: 10/22, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 10/21, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Upton: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.04 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Rays:

Crawford: 9/25, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Upton: 3/14, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Pena: 4/9, 1 2B, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Burrell: 1/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Navarro: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Zobrist: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.21 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.96 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Rays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Rays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Rays:

Kapler: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dillon: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Shields: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 1 BB
Upton: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Navarro: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.12 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Rays:

Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Isringhausen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pena: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.26 ERA, 6.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Rays:

Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kapler: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.47 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Rays:

Pena: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Upton: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.90 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Rays:

Burrell: 2/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 8 K
Crawford: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), o K
Pena: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Gross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Rays:

Pena: 2/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1 BB
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 4.15 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.75 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not played any Rays

DISABLED LIST (COULD RETURN WED OR THU): Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/3, 2 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Rays:

Gross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Crawford: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 1 SF
Upton: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Rays:

Aybar: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Cormier: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K