SBNation.com User Blog: Matt.N

Winners & Losers From The 2007 Draft

Matt.N — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 03:44:55 -0000

As we approach the 2012 draft day I thought it would be nice to reflect on past drafts. There is a common sentiment in all sports that you can’t "call" a draft until 5 years after the fact. According to this concept, we can now put the 2007 draft in the books. I don’t know that I necessarily agree with this in hockey given the 18 year old draft age, but what the hell. Let’s give it a try. On topic for Oiler fans, this is the Sam Gagner draft. It's also the year that the Oilers had 3 first round picks.

I’m going to shamelessly steal ideas from this great post done by The Falconer on the now defunct blog Bird Watchers Anonymous. I strongly suggest you read his post before you continue with this one to see what I am building on.

The first thing we need to do is establish a common measuring stick for all players. The best out there that I know of is Tom Awads GVT. It is admittedly a flawed stat, but that is a topic for another time. ( I would like to thank Tom for making this information available to the public.)

First lets take a look at this draft from a high level simply in terms of games played.

Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	GP
1	1	Chicago	Patrick Kane	R	399
1	6	Edmonton	Sam Gagner	C	366
2	61	Los Angeles	Wayne Simmonds	R	322
1	7	Columbus	Jakub Voracek	R	319
1	26	St. Louis	David Perron	C	292
1	11	Carolina	Brandon Sutter	C	286
5	129	Dallas	Jamie Benn	L	222
1	5	Washington	Karl Alzner	D	215
1	22	Montreal	Max Pacioretty	L	202
1	2	Philadelphia	James Van Riemsdyk	L	196
7	194	Toronto	Carl Gunnarsson	D	187
1	3	Phoenix	Kyle Turris	C	186
2	55	Colorado	T.J. Galiardi	W	185
1	9	San Jose	Logan Couture	C	184
2	58	Nashville	Nick Spaling	C	179
1	13	St. Louis	Lars Eller	F	163
2	43	Montreal	P.K. Subban	D	160
1	14	Colorado	Kevin Shattenkirk	D	153
1	24	Calgary	Mikael Backlund	C	138
1	16	Minnesota	Colton Gillies	L	127
1	12	Montreal	Ryan McDonagh	D	122
4	117	New Jersey	Matt Halischuk	R	121
1	10	Florida	Keaton Ellerby	D	116
4	95	Los Angeles	Alec Martinez	D	115
3	73	Montreal	Yannick Weber	D	109
2	47	Tampa Bay	Dana Tyrell	C	104
7	201	San Jose	Justin Braun	D	94
2	79	New Jersey	Nick Palmieri	R	87
3	52	Los Angeles	Oscar Moller	C	87
6	173	San Jose	Nick Bonino	C	85
4	116	Calgary	Keith Aulie	D	76
2	40	Florida	Michal Repik	R	72
4	110	Minnesota	Justin Falk	D	72
3	72	Carolina	Drayson Bowman	L	69
6	171	Pittsburgh	Dustin Jeffrey	C	66
4	97	Edmonton	Linus Omark	W	65
6	168	NY Rangers	Carl Hagelin	L	64
4	93	Anaheim	Steven Kampfer	D	61
4	99	Toronto	Matt Frattin	R	57
1	23	Nashville	Jonathon Blum	D	56
3	71	Florida	Evgeny Dadonov	R	55
1	18	St. Louis	Ian Cole	D	52
2	44	St. Louis	Aaron Palushaj	R	41
2	42	Anaheim	Eric Tangradi	L	40
7	203	San Jose	Frazer McLaren	L	39
4	111	Pittsburgh	Luca Caputi	L	35
1	89	Buffalo	Corey Tropp	R	34
3	29	Ottawa	Jim O'Brien	C	34
4	109	Los Angeles	Dwight King	C	33
6	179	Buffalo	Paul Byron	C	30
3	63	Anaheim	Maxime Macenauer	C	29
3	67	Atlanta	Spencer Machacek	R	25
5	144	Nashville	Andreas Thuresson	R	25
5	140	Minnesota	Cody Almond	C	25
4	94	Columbus	Maksim Mayorov	L	22
6	152	Philadelphia	Jon Kalinski	L	22
1	8	Boston	Zach Hamill	C	20
2	32	Phoenix	Brett MacLean	L	18
7	200	Minnesota	Carson McMillan	C	15
1	27	Detroit	Brendan Smith	D	14
2	158	Columbus	Allen York	G	11
3	31	Buffalo	T.J. Brennan	D	11
5	141	Pittsburgh	Jake Muzzin	D	11
6	62	NY Islanders	Mark Katic	D	11
1	15	Edmonton	Alex Plante	D	10
2	167	Tampa Bay	Johan Harju	L	10
6	41	Philadelphia	Kevin Marshall	D	10
3	78	Pittsburgh	Robert Bortuzzo	D	6
1	96	St. Louis	Cade Fairchild	D	5
3	21	Edmonton	Riley Nash	C	5
4	88	Detroit	Joakim Andersson	C	5
7	205	Atlanta	Paul Postma	D	4
2	70	Calgary	John Negrin	D	3
3	45	Colorado	Colby Cohen	D	3
2	56	Chicago	Akim Aliu	R	2
6	161	Philadelphia	Patrick Maroon	L	2
3	81	Nashville	Ryan Thang	R	1
3	127	Edmonton	Milan Kytnar	C	1
4	112	Dallas	Colton Sceviour	R	1
5	83	San Jose	Timo Pielmeier	G	1

Some bullet points about things that immediately catch my eye.

There were 211 players drafted in 2007. Only 82 (39%) have ever played a game in the NHL.
Of these 82, only 25 are defenceman.
12 first rounders and 24 second rounders have yet to play half a season (41 games) in the show.
20 goalies selected. Only 2 have appeared in an NHL game. Allen York who was pressed into desperation service in Columbus last year and Timo Pielmeier who played 2 periods of NHL hockey and got lit up for 5 goals. Not a great draft year for goalies.
The one game Milan Kytnar played in the NHL will look great when he shows off his HockeyDB to his grandchildren.

With a little excel magic I simply gave each player taken in the 2007 draft a career GVT number. The player with the highest GVT is the player who has been the most valuable since his draft day. This is why you see Sam Gagner, who started in the league at 18, having a larger number than PK Subban, who spent two years in junior and a year in the AHL before joining getting a full time roster spot.

First let’s take a look at how the players shake out by career GVT.

Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Total GVT
1	1	Chicago	Patrick Kane	R	79.70
1	129	Dallas	Jamie Benn	L	34.40
2	9	San Jose	Logan Couture	C	33.10
1	26	St. Louis	David Perron	C	32.90
1	6	Edmonton	Sam Gagner	C	26.40
1	61	Los Angeles	Wayne Simmonds	R	25.60
5	14	Colorado	Kevin Shattenkirk	D	24.20
1	7	Columbus	Jakub Voracek	R	24.10
1	11	Carolina	Brandon Sutter	C	22.50
1	43	Montreal	P.K. Subban	D	18.80
7	12	Montreal	Ryan McDonagh	D	18.70
1	2	Philadelphia	James Van Riemsdyk	L	18.40
2	194	Toronto	Carl Gunnarsson	D	14.60
1	22	Montreal	Max Pacioretty	L	14.40
2	5	Washington	Karl Alzner	D	12.70
1	55	Colorado	T.J. Galiardi	W	10.80
2	168	NY Rangers	Carl Hagelin	L	9.60
1	117	New Jersey	Matt Halischuk	R	9.30
1	3	Phoenix	Kyle Turris	C	8.00
1	95	Los Angeles	Alec Martinez	D	7.80
1	13	St. Louis	Lars Eller	F	6.90
4	171	Pittsburgh	Dustin Jeffrey	C	5.20
1	201	San Jose	Justin Braun	D	4.70
4	18	St. Louis	Ian Cole	D	4.60
3	24	Calgary	Mikael Backlund	C	4.50
2	73	Montreal	Yannick Weber	D	4.40
7	79	New Jersey	Nick Palmieri	R	3.30
2	93	Anaheim	Steven Kampfer	D	3.20
3	71	Florida	Evgeny Dadonov	R	2.90
6	58	Nashville	Nick Spaling	C	2.80
4	23	Nashville	Jonathon Blum	D	2.80
2	67	Atlanta	Spencer Machacek	R	2.50
4	27	Detroit	Brendan Smith	D	2.50
3	158	Columbus	Allen York	G	2.00
6	40	Florida	Michal Repik	R	1.90
4	97	Edmonton	Linus Omark	W	1.90
6	47	Tampa Bay	Dana Tyrell	C	1.70
4	72	Carolina	Drayson Bowman	L	1.50
4	109	Los Angeles	Dwight King	C	1.40
1	56	Chicago	Akim Aliu	R	1.40
3	10	Florida	Keaton Ellerby	D	1.30
1	179	Buffalo	Paul Byron	C	1.20
2	200	Minnesota	Carson McMillan	C	1.10
2	173	San Jose	Nick Bonino	C	1.10
7	99	Toronto	Matt Frattin	R	1.00
4	89	Buffalo	Corey Tropp	R	0.90
1	52	Los Angeles	Oscar Moller	C	0.90
3	94	Columbus	Maksim Mayorov	L	0.60
4	29	Ottawa	Jim O'Brien	C	0.50
6	110	Minnesota	Justin Falk	D	0.50
3	203	San Jose	Frazer McLaren	L	0.50
3	111	Pittsburgh	Luca Caputi	L	0.40
5	63	Anaheim	Maxime Macenauer	C	0.40
5	15	Edmonton	Alex Plante	D	0.40
4	8	Boston	Zach Hamill	C	0.40
6	32	Phoenix	Brett MacLean	L	0.30
1	167	Tampa Bay	Johan Harju	L	0.3
2	78	Pittsburgh	Robert Bortuzzo	D	0.30
7	44	St. Louis	Aaron Palushaj	R	0.20
1	31	Buffalo	T.J. Brennan	D	0.20
2	96	St. Louis	Cade Fairchild	D	0.10
3	21	Edmonton	Riley Nash	C	0.00
5	205	Atlanta	Paul Postma	D	0.00
6	161	Philadelphia	Patrick Maroon	L	0.00
1	81	Nashville	Ryan Thang	R	0.00
2	127	Edmonton	Milan Kytnar	C	0.00
6	141	Pittsburgh	Jake Muzzin	D	-0.1
3	88	Detroit	Joakim Andersson	C	-0.10
1	70	Calgary	John Negrin	D	-0.10
3	152	Philadelphia	Jon Kalinski	L	-0.20
4	112	Dallas	Colton Sceviour	R	-0.2
7	45	Colorado	Colby Cohen	D	-0.3
2	116	Calgary	Keith Aulie	D	-0.30
3	41	Philadelphia	Kevin Marshall	D	-0.40
2	144	Nashville	Andreas Thuresson	R	-0.80
6	140	Minnesota	Cody Almond	C	-1.20
3	62	NY Islanders	Mark Katic	D	-1.3
3	16	Minnesota	Colton Gillies	L	-2.00
4	42	Anaheim	Eric Tangradi	L	-2.30
5	83	San Jose	Timo Pielmeier	G	-3.1

As expected, the first overall pick Patrick Kane is killing this. He is clearly been the best player in this draft up to this point, as he should be.
Jamie Benn. What a great pick by the Stars! Pretty rare you see a 5th rounder at the top of the list in a redraft
This is not news to anyone, but defenceman take longer to develop. Only 2 of the top 10 in career GVT are defenceman. Shattenkirk at 7 and Subban at 10.
Gagner shows really well here at 5. This is largely due to him playing in the NHL right away. I don't know that even the most ardent Sammy fans would make the argument that he is a more valuable player than some of the defencemen lower than him on this list. However, he shouldn't be punished for being able to compete against the best in the world at 18 either.

Lets take a look at this by team and see how they perform

Team	Total GVT
Chicago Total	81.1
Montreal Total	56.3
St. Louis Total	44.7
San Jose Total	39.40
Colorado Total	35
Los Angeles Total	35.7
Dallas Total	34.4
Edmonton Total	28.70
Columbus Total	26.7
Carolina Total	24
Philadelphia Total	18
Toronto Total	15.6
Washington Total	12.7
New Jersey Total	12.6
NY Rangers Total	9.6
Phoenix Total	8.3
Florida Total	6.1
Nashville Total	5.6
Pittsburgh Total	5.5
Calgary Total	4.20
Atlanta Total	2.5
Detroit Total	2.4
Buffalo Total	2.3
Tampa Bay Total	1.7
Anaheim Total	1.30
Ottawa Total	0.5
Boston Total	0.4
NY Islanders Total	0
Vancouver Total	0
Minnesota Total	-1.60

Chicago out ahead on this due to the Kane pick

Montreal just killed this draft in my opinion. This is a stellar job by the scouting department. Trading McDonagh for Gomez and a guy named Busto, not so much.

Round	Num.	Team	Player	Pos	GP	Total GVT
1	12	Montreal	Ryan McDonagh	D	122	18.70
1	22	Montreal	Max Pacioretty	L	202	14.40
2	43	Montreal	P.K. Subban	D	160	18.80
3	73	Montreal	Yannick Weber	D	109	4.40

Edmonton had 3 picks in the first round. Hard to fault them on the Gagner pick, but Nash and Plante are looking pretty bad. I think it was Lowetide who said that this draft most likely cost Kevin Predergast his job.

LA's draft board is interesting. They blew the lottery pick with Hickey, but the rest of their draft looks really nice.

Round	Num.	Team	Player	GP	Total GVT
1	4	Los Angeles	Thomas Hickey		N/A
2	61	Los Angeles	Wayne Simmonds	322	25.60
4	95	Los Angeles	Alec Martinez	115	7.80
4	109	Los Angeles	Dwight King	33	1.40
2	52	Los Angeles	Oscar Moller	87	0.9

Only 13 teams came away from this draft with a player who has a career GVT of 10 or higher.

This exercise really got me thinking about how hit and miss draft picks are. There is some debate going around right now about trading Gagner for a top 10 pick. The risk that you have to factor in when considering the value of a draft pick is really underrated in my opinion. Was 2007 a particularly bad year? I don't know, but I will do some more excel work and get back to you.

4 Legs Good, 2 Legs Bad!

Matt.N — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:47:03 -0000

We are currently witnessing a time honored Oiler ritual of muddying the name of a player as he heads out the door. Ales Hemsky is getting the same treatment that players such as Paul Coffey, Jason Arnott, Ryan Smyth v.1 and HeWhoShallNotBeNamed got on their way out the door.The media members who get paid by the franchise get out the long knives to stab the player in the back. Then the usual suspects in the media jump on board to grease the rails on said players run out of town. The goal is to put the franchise in the best possible light and frame the player as a malcontent. Usually, the fanbase is on board. This has been well documented on this site and others, and not the subject of this post.

( I would however, like to give Mark Spector a special nod in this specific case. Mr. Spector, in this fans opinion is doing a terrible job in his role as a journalist. His opinion carries weight and is capable of forming and changing opinion, if for no other reason than he gets airtime. He is using his position to advance a narrative pushed by the Oilers rather than any attempt at intellectual honesty or fact finding. If he was doing this in a subject that actually mattered, rather than sports, i would call it reprehensible. I understand the reason for Dan Tensor or Bob Stauffer to follow the party line. I don't understand Spectors.)

According to Cap Geek, next year Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid and Nikolai Khabibulin are all UFA's in their last year of a contract. It has been demonstrated that this management group does not hold onto UFAs past the deadline. They traded Smitty, the mullet haired heart and soul of the franchise. They will not hold onto these three, if they can be moved at all.

In an attempt to predict the future, I will now give you the stories, narratives and angles that you will be hearing next year at this time.

Ryan Whitney:

"He just can't stay healthy"

"There is some talk that he isn't working as hard as he can to recover from injury"

"Whitney is looking for a long term contract. I don't think you want to tie up that much of a cap hit on a guy you can't trust to be there every night"

"He is a Boston guy and he would be happier out in the Eastern conference somewhere"

"The guy is 30 years old with a history of injury. Does he really fit into your long term plans for the rebuild?"

What absolutely will not be talked about is the Visnovsky trade. Lubo's contract is up the same day as Whitney's. Remember when that trade was made, the prevailing wisdom was that the Oilers were getting a younger player that fit with their plans.

Laddy Smid:

"He just doesn't bring you any offense"

"Laddy has been in the league a long time and he hasn't developed into that top pairing guy the Oilers were hoping for"

"Smid was a high draft pick who never really lived up to his potential "

"Laddy has never really been comfortable with the press. He would be happier in a market where he wasn't in the spotlight all the time"

What absolutely will not be talked about is the Pronger trade. Laddy was the centerpiece of a "five asset deal". What won't be said is all the years of throwing this guy into the deep end before he was ready.

Nikolai Khabibulin:

"A Stanley cup winner who is at the end of his effectiveness. He never really lived up to the contract the Oilers signed him to"

"With all the distractions and issues Nik had surrounding the Drunk Driving lawsuit, this maybe isn't the guy you want around your young core of players"

"At his age and with his injury history, he is not the long term answer in net for the Oilers"

There will be no mention of how terrible a free agent signing this was, or how just about every body not paid by the Oilers hated this signing from the day it got done.

This isn't news to anyone who has followed this team for a while. It's just sad and frustrating. Remember only a few years ago when Robert Nilsson, Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner were the new hope? Look what happened to them. Do you think this won't happen to Taylor Hall , RNH and Jordan Eberle? The fans are subsidizing this terrible, incompetent management by going to games and buying into their bullshit. Certain members of the media are doing their part to spout the party line.

If you want to do something about it, there are two ways. Number one, don't pay! Don't give a cent of your money to support this shitty management group. Number two, change the narrative. When talking hockey with your friends and family, ask them to consider if the management group for the worst team in the league over the last 6 years is really the authority you want to be listening to. Call Spec and Maddy on their bullshit. Don't accept the narrative.

Dustin Penner plays softball??

Matt.N — Tue, 31 May 2011 18:28:23 -0000

Dustin Penner plays softball??

What do scouts look for?

Matt.N — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:58:09 -0000

What do scouts look for?

Three bloggers (including Kirk Luedeke) break down what they look for in a prospect.

Number that may interest only me : 1

Matt.N — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 18:28:57 -0000

Number that may interest only me : 1

(Shamelessly stealing Dereks gig)

Penner 17GP 2G 4A 6PTS 0PIM +2

Teubert 17GP 2G 5A 7PTS 24PIM -1

The amount that Colton Teubert has outscored DP in their prospective leagues.

(Hat tip to LT poster Danny for the info)

If I were the Edmonton GM, after Schenn, I would ask for Wayne Simmonds, then Kyle Clifford, then...

Matt.N — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:43:10 -0000

If I were the Edmonton GM, after Schenn, I would ask for Wayne Simmonds, then Kyle Clifford, then Andrei Loktionov, then Jonathan Bernier, then Viatcheslav Voynov, then Tyler Toffoli, then Forbort, then Martin Jones, then Oscar Moller, then Nicolas Deslauriers, then Maxim Kitsyn, then Muzzin, then Linden Vey, and then Teubert. Probably Steve Tambellini didn't want some of those guys, but is there any way Teubert was higher than tenth on the wish list?

SB Nation's Jewels From The Crown on Colten Teubert's ranking within the Kings' system

"Why hello Mr. Shero. So nice of you to call."

Matt.N — Sat, 05 Feb 2011 23:09:01 -0000

Evgeni Malkin is out for the season with a knee injury. This is terrible news for a pro hockey player in the middle of his most productive years. On the other hand, a new opportunity has just popped up for the Oilers. You see, the way that the cap system works, is that if a player is put on long term injured reserve, his team is allowed cap relief up to his total salary. Effectively speaking, the Pittsburgh Penguins were up against the cap and now have Malkin's 8.7 million in cap space available for the rest of the year.

Pittsburgh currently sits second in their division to Philly and second in points in the east with 72. Anytime you have Sidney Crosby on your team you are a threat to win the Stanley Cup. Ray Shero has a history of making moves to improve his team at the deadline.Pittsburgh is now in need of a top 6 winger. Preferably one that can fill the holes on either side of Sid that the Penguins have for ever been searching for.

Edmonton is in an opposite division and no where near the playoffs. Edmonton has 2 wingers in Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky that would fit like a glove beside Sid.

Before I go any further, I want to clarify my position here. What the Oilers really need going forward are veteran, outscoring players on good contracts. DP and Hemsky are exacty that. The problem is there is the distinct possibility of losing one or both of them to UFA at the end of next year. If Tambellini doesn't move them this year, and can't get them resigned next year, their worth on the market will be significantly less at next years deadline. According to the CBA, a contract renewal can't occur until the last year of the existing contract. So, there is no way of getting anyones name on a contract right now. This is the part that regular fan has no insight into. Will Penner and Hemsky be willing to resign next year? If the answer is yes, then the rest of this post is pretty much a moo point. It's also worth taking into consideration the ages of the players we are talking about. By the time Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark and the other prospects that are bubbling under are ready to contend in a few years, Penner and Hemsky will be on the downside of their careers. The injury to Malkin has opened up an interesting window that needs to be explored by both GM's.

Now let's talk about return.

Pittsburghs first round pick is likely in the 25-30 range. Edmonton already has a pick at 31. However, the Penguins have some very nice looking prospects.

The ideal return here is Jordan Staal. It's not happening. Teams with Stanley Cup aspirations don't trade away their second best forward. Especially if he is only 22 and signed to a nice contract. Here are some other interesting players.

Eric Tangradi (2nd round 2007 42nd overall) is a 20 year old 6'4" 230lb LW with a mean streak (seen here ragdolling Radko Gudas ) who is putting up nice numbers in the A and has had 11 games with the big club this year. He projects out as a 20-25 goal guy who takes the body and drops the gloves. In other words, he is JFJ in Tambellini's world.

Simon Despres ( 1st round - 2009 30th overall)is a 6'4" 225lb defenseman who is killing the Q right now. This is not a tremendous accomplishment for someone 19 years old, but still a big body D man putting up a point per game is pretty attractive.

Beau Bennett ( 1st round - 2010 20th overall) is a scorer who is having a nice first season at the NCAA level.

In the end, I don't want to see the Oilers trade away either Penner or Hemsky. However, Ray Shero could come up with a very attractive package involving some of these prospects and picks that would certainly be worth another 100 or so exciting last place hockey games from one or both of them.

Zorg Waived

Matt.N — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 18:32:54 -0000

Zorg Waived

Is it possible that JFJ is Kevin Lowes illegitimate child? I haven't done the math or anything. Just throwing it out there.

A Boy Named Sue (Sam)

Matt.N — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 16:46:19 -0000

And he said: " Son, this world is rough,and if a man is gonna make it he's gotta be tough, and I knew I wouldn't be there to help you along."

-Johnny Cash, A Boy Named Sue

Sam Gagner is an excellent example of what Malcolm Gladwell and Daniel Coyle have been trying to tell us. The theory is that opportunity deep practice and high level coaching / mentoring from a young age can provide a person with extrordinary skills that often are mistaken for innate talent.

Sam's dad is Dave Gagner. He was a high round draft pick, a very good (if not elite) NHL player, and since his playing days has been involved in coaching and scouting in both the CHL and NHL. Dave is also founded Custom Ice Rinks, Inc., a company that manufactures permanent and portable ice skating rinks. I only mention this because Sam has often spoke of his time spent on his home rink as a big factor in his development.

Lowetide often talks about comparables. He sites Doug Gilmour and Vincent Dampousse as the closest thing to Sammy. I have alway found these just a little bit off. The obvious comp to my way of thinking is none other than dear old Dad.

And he said: " Son, this world is rough,and if a man is gonna make it he's gotta be tough, and I knew I wouldn't be there to help you along."

-Johnny Cash, A Boy Named Sue

There has been alot of talk about how high the ceiling is for Sam. Some think he will never be the prototypical (but often not defined) 1st line center that all fans crave. Some talk of trading him while he is still worth something because he is too soft and doesn't score enough. Some want to give him time, he is only 21!

I thought it would be a good exercise to run through Daves career numbers and see how Sammy stacks up so far and where he might go in the future.

First up : Sammy

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #1	2007-08	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	13	36	49	23
Post Draft year #2	2008-09	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	76	16	25	41	51
Post Draft year #3	2009-10	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	68	15	26	41	33
Post Draft year #4	2010-11	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	82	17	27	44	30
		Totals		269	61	114	175	137

(note: I prorated Sammys production for this year).

Now : Dad

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #1	1983-84	Canadian National Team	Intl	43	15	22	37	34
	1983-84	Brantford Alexanders	OHL	12	7	13	20	4
Post Draft year #2	1984-85	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	38	13	20	33	23
	1984-85	New York Rangers	NHL	38	6	6	12	16
Post Draft year #3	1985-86	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	16	10	11	21	11
	1985-86	New York Rangers	NHL	32	4	6	10	19
Post Draft year #4	1986-87	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	56	22	41	63	50
	1986-87	New York Rangers	NHL	10	1	4	5	12
		NHL Totals		80	11	16	27	47
		Minor League Totals		165	67	107	174	122

The first thing that jumps out at you is Dave's development curve. He didn't see the NHL his first post draft year and then was up and down for the next 3 years. Overall, he spent twice as many games in the minors as he did in the show. Sammy got the promotion straight to the big leagues.

Sammy has produced at 0.65 points per game and Dave at 0.82. Considering the level of opposition they were each playing this has to be considered a wash if not an edge to Sammy.

Now the rest of Daves career.

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #5	1987-88	Kalamazoo Wings	IHL	14	16	10	26	26
	1987-88	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	51	8	11	19	55
Post Draft year #6	1988-89	Kalamazoo Wings	IHL	1	0	1	1	4
	1988-89	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	75	35	43	78	104
Post Draft year #7	1989-90	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	79	40	38	78	54
Post Draft year #8	1990-91	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	73	40	42	82	114
Post Draft year #9	1991-92	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	78	31	40	71	107
Post Draft year #10	1992-93	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	84	33	43	76	143
Post Draft year #11	1993-94	Dallas Stars	NHL	76	32	29	61	83
Post Draft year #12	1994-95	Dallas Stars	NHL	48	14	28	42	42
	1994-95	Courmaosta HC	Italy	1	4	0	4	0
Post Draft year #13	1995-96	Dallas Stars	NHL	45	14	13	27	44
Post Draft year #14	1995-96	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	28	7	15	22	59
Post Draft year #15	1996-97	Calgary Flames	NHL	82	27	33	60	48
Post Draft year #16	1997-98	Florida Panthers	NHL	78	20	28	48	55
Post Draft year #17	1998-99	Florida Panthers	NHL	36	4	10	14	39
Post Draft year #18	1998-99	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	33	2	12	14	24
		NHL Totals		866	307	385	692	971

Dave spends another year bouncing back up and down and then really hits his stride in his 6th post draft year at the age of 23. He posts 3 consecutive years of better than a point per game and then starts a slow ramp down in point production. His peak years are his 6th, 7th and 8th post draft years at the age of 23, 24, 25.

One thing I find interesting is Dave's rise in penalty minutes that accompanies his establishing himself in the NHL. I did a quick check on hockeyfights.com to see if he was racking up majors. He has one or two a year against noted knuckle throwers like Paul Coffey and Mark Lamb, but it seems like his 100+ PMs a year are mostly minors.

So, a few of points in conclusion.

- Give Sammy another year or two before we write him off

- Maybe Sam should think about punching Paul Coffey in the face, or at least stepping up his aggression levels to carve a little more space.

- The Oilers only own his rights until he is 25 and can opt for UFA. If he holds to his Dads form, this will be the beginning of his most productive stretch.

- The Oilers could have owned these years cheaply if they had developed Sam at the same pace as his Dad.

Linus Omark Demoted to OKC

Matt.N — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 20:33:46 -0000

Linus Omark Demoted to OKC

Ryan Parent on waivers

Matt.N — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 19:35:30 -0000

Ryan Parent on waivers

Former first round pick (2005-18th overall / Nashville) who has never gained any traction with 3 different organizations. The Oilers have zero to lose by picking this guy up while Whitney is out and giving him some minutes. After 30 days on the NHL roster he could be sent down again.

Belle goes back to the AHL

Matt.N — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 06:04:37 -0000

Belle goes back to the AHL

Someone thinks Strudwick is a better player than Belle. This weeks sign that the apocalypse is upon us.

Magnus Doesn't Miss

Matt.N — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 17:55:51 -0000

Magnus Doesn't Miss

Magnus Paajarvi has the most shots of any Oiler forward and the fewest misses.

POS put on waivers by Carolina. Claimed by Minnesota

Matt.N — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 17:17:31 -0000

POS put on waivers by Carolina. Claimed by Minnesota

If Tambo had claimed him, could he declare a win on the Vandermeer trade?

2011 Draft - Central Scouting Players to Watch

Matt.N — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 21:11:09 -0000

2011 Draft - Central Scouting Players to Watch

Magnus Paajarvi - The Oilers New Tough Minute Center

Matt.N — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:32:06 -0000

Editor's Note: Matt.N is a regular around these parts, so regular in fact, he's now looking for solutions for the tough minutes-playing, faceoff-winning, penalty-killing center desperately needed by the Oilers since 2007. His FanPost is a novel idea and should generate some interesting conversation.

Ever since Marty Sakic, Kyle Brodziak and Jarret Stoll got shipped out of town the Oilers have been running out a one armed Shawn Horcoff and a group of under sized, under aged and over matched players to man the middle. This has worked out a lot like the Dieppe Raid in 1942. It was a complete failure on all objectives; however it has provided us with some valuable information for future use and taught us what not to do.

What every cheezie stained blogger, anti-Horcoff commenter and semi-literate fan has been calling for is a legitimate first line center. It has gotten to the point that the Oilogosphere has an annual desperate call for such luminaries as Dominic Moore, Jeff Halpern or Manny Malhotra to fill the gap. Fine players, but it would be a stretch of Van Meegeren proportions to include them in the top 30 centers in the league

So what exactly is it that we are looking for in a center? Typical answers would include size, puck distribution, face-off ability, defensive responsibility and, most importantly for the Oilers roster, the ability to play against and outscore the best centers in the NHL.

I would suggest that Magnus Paajarvi has the tools to become the player we have been looking for. Let’s hit these points one by one to see how he does.

Size:

Much of a centers ice time is spent below the goal line, in the corners or in front of the net. Upper body strength and mass is valuable to win battles in these tough areas.

NHL.com and his Wiki page list Pääjärvi at 6’3". IHDB lists him at 6’1". Let’s split the difference and call him 6’2" and 200lbs. He is still only 19 so his top end will most likely be around 215 -220. This would be big enough to label him as above average to large amongst NHL forwards.

Puck distributor:

Over his entire career (229 games including international play) he has scored 52 goals and tallied 75 assists for a 1.44 assist to goal ratio. This would land him in the range with players who are perceived to be all around offensively gifted players like Eric Staal (1.41) and Jason Spezza (1.48) rather than pure set up men like Joe Thornton (3.45) or shoot first snipers like Steve Stamkos (0.86).

Face Off ability:

The value of winning face-offs as it relates to winning games is, in my opinion, overstated. However, the bar is set pretty low for face off proficiency amongst the Edmonton Oiler centers (see Cogliano, Andrew). This is definitely a question that would have to be answered.

Defensive ability:

Magnus was a defenseman until he was 12, at which point he switched to forward. His draft scouting reports list some defensive issues. EliteProspects.com commented on his defensive ability:

"Defensively, he has throughout his career as a junior been considered as a sloppy player with not enough willingness to back check and to the dirty work. This is something Pääjärvi Svensson has worked very hard on and improved significantly. Today, he is in fact a quite capable two-way player that also battles for the puck and takes care of his responsibilities. However, there are still some defensive aspects that could use improvement."

Based on most accounts of his play at the rookie camps, pre-season and for the first couple of games, he has been surprisingly good at this aspect of the game. He is mentioned quite often as being the first player back checking on his line and to my eyes has been extremely diligent in his own end of the ice.

Capable of Playing against the best centers in the NHL:

Pääjärvi cannot fill this role right now, but may be able to in the future. It is too much to ask of any rookie. To best prepare Pajjan for this role the Oilers organization would need to put him in the best possible situation to succeed.

So how do the Oilers and Pääjärvi get from here to there?

My suggestions:

a 10 game (or more) stint down with the Sooners to apprentice at playing center.
Some serious work with Mike "Suitcase" Sillinger after practice to work on his face off abilities
Once promoted to the bigs, a slow "Horcoffian" increase in Quality of Competition from the 4th line up.

If you couple up the skill set possessed by Pajjan with the organizational depth at LW (Penner, Hall and Jones) and the lack of a true first line center, I think this is an idea that should be explored by the Oilers.

Prop Bets

Matt.N — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 02:23:14 -0000

Prop Bets

Bodog has set the line on the over under for points during this season for the Edmonton Oilers at 76.5.

They got 62 last year. I am taking the under

They also have the odds of the Oilers winning the cup at 75/1 . (so your saying there's a chance!!!!)

Attention Draft Junkies

Matt.N — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:46:19 -0000

Attention Draft Junkies

Bob MacKenzie's September Top 10 is up at TSN.

5 Tool Players & Standardized Scouting

Matt.N — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 22:41:50 -0000

One of the great things about the interweb is that whenever you have an idea, you can bet that someone smarter out there has already written about it better than you could. I have been kicking around the concepts of standardized scouting reports and also pirating established baseball concepts and employing them in hockey. These two articles hit both these ideas out of the park.

For the link-impaired, here is the concept (courtesy of Corey Pronman):

"In baseball, for decades they’ve used their own scouting system called the 20-80, which quantifiably identified how good a player was, but more importantly gave scouts everywhere a universal language on how to communicate the level of a particular tool or the quality of the player in an objective manner. The tools that baseball used this system for included hitting, power, fielding, running etc. Transferring this over to hockey we are going to stick to these tools:"

Skating (Acceleration, stride, top speed, turning/edge control)
Puck Skills (Passing, stick-handling etc.)
Shot (Accuracy, velocity, release)
Physical Game (Size, strength, able to handle physicality)
Hockey Sense (Decision-making, awareness, smarts)

Here is the scale:

20: Can barely perform this skill, there are 13 and 14 year-old amateur players who can do this skill better. Think Derek Boogaard’s hockey sense for example.
30: Significantly below average (minus minus), isn’t beer league quality but it’s nowhere near the NHL level. Think Georges Laraque’s puck skills or Hall Gill’s skating.
40: Below NHL average (minus), this skill isn’t completely out of the league but it’s still a good notch below. Examples are Marc-Andre Fleury’s rebound control or Jack Johnson’s hockey sense.
50: NHL average, think Marco Sturm’s puck skills, Justin Williams' shot.
60: Above NHL average (plus), this is an all-star level skill. Examples are Jonathan Toews’ skating, Mike Richards' physical game, David Booth’s shot.
70: Significantly above average (plus plus), this skill is one of the best in the game and is in an elite class. This is a grade rarely given out. Steven Stamkos’ shot, Chris Pronger's physical game, Nicklas Lidstrom’s hockey sense, and Alex Ovechkin’s skating are examples.
80: Generational talent, an extremely rare grade to be given out for any skill. Examples of what an 80 grade is include Bobby Orr’s skating, Al MacInnis’ shot, Wayne Gretzky’s hockey sense.

There would be the rare example of someone falling outside of this scale to a handful of people in the existence of hockey, in which case we’d grade it 20- or 80+ An 80+ would be something very other-worldly and will likely never be repeated such as Dominik Hasek’s reflexes."

I ran a few Oilers through this and came up these numbers.

(Skating/Puck Skills/Shot/Physical Game/Hockey Sense)

Player	Skating	Puck Skills	Shot	Physical Game	Hockey Sense
Dustin Penner	55	60	50	70	50
Ales Hemsky	60	70	55	55	50
Sam Gagner	55	60	55	40	60
Tom Gilbert	60	60	50	50	55
Sheldon Souray	40	50	70	60	50
Ladislav Smid	50	40	30	60	50

Argue away, come up with some of your own.

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is not just to judge a couple of players on the Oilers with a new shiny toy, but as Mr. Pronman hopes, to standardize the way we scout players. I humbly submit that we run with this idea here in the Oilogosphere, which is at the forefront of new ways of thinking about hockey and statistics.

Probert Dead

Matt.N — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 22:04:14 -0000

Probert Dead

NFL draft position value chart

Matt.N — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 15:46:49 -0000

NFL draft position value chart

An interesting table showing value of picks. This is heavily used in one form or another by NFL GM's. It was originally concieved by Bill Parcells.

If you have ever wondered what the value of say, the Oilers 2 second round picks (31 & 51), this would be a good place to start. According to the table, anything above the 16th overall pick would be considered good value.

Garrioch....How does this guy have a job?

Matt.N — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 12:51:49 -0000

Garrioch....How does this guy have a job?

Secret meetings of GMs to conspire against Alex Tanguay. Sure, was that before or after they pledged to the loyal order of waterbuffalo. It couldn't have anything to do with the cap could it Bruce?