I seem to read a lot of comments that suggest shipping LMA out to various places for various other players, usually players with a more physical style.  The latest I heard was advocating swapping him with Brook Lopez.  It was a "no-brainer."  I think we may be short-changing our own player a little bit.  First, I am always cautious about over-valuing players that are producing for horrible teams.  Sometimes those players can contribute to a decent team, sometimes they cant.  A quick comparison will show that Aldridge and Lopez are having similar seasons.

               PTS     REB     AST     %     STL     BLK     TRN

Aldridge    17.7     8.1      2        50      .9          .6       1.3

Lopez       18.8     8.7     2.3      50      .7        1.7       2.5

Lopez is producing about an extra point, half a board, a block and an extra turnover.  Assuming that a turnover costs your team about a point by giving away a possession we can safely cancel out the points and turnovers difference.  So that leaves us with a block and 1/2 a rebound.  Seems like you get a little more defense from Lopez then, right?  Not so much.  Lopez has to be regarded as one of the most putrid post defenders in the league based on the fact that his team defends 6 pts per 100 possessions BETTER with him off the floor than on it.  The 11 win Nets are actually average defenders when Lopez sits, although their offense takes a hit without him (-5).  Lopez' total effect on the Nets is to make them worse by about 1 point per 100 possessions.  That's not much but the fact that he makes the NETS worse is very worrisome.  Aldridge makes the Blazer defense slightly better (+1), so we can safely call him an average defender an an average defensive team. 

Sorry I rambled on but I have to conclude that trading LMA for Lopez at this point would be less than ideal.  Lopez might present a small boost in production (then again, with pace...) but would torpedo the defense and fail to stretch the opposing defense out for Miller and Roy to operate in the middle.  I think fans tend to overvalue opposing players. In my opinion we should appreciate what LMA gives us while rooting for him to improve his weaknesses.

I have been trying valiantly to hold the line on my Blazer obsession.  Attending games, poring over stats, roaming the internet for every morsel of Blazer coverage, and checking BE thrice daily is bad enough without me starting to post too.  But certain things just have the feeling of inevitability to them...  you can try to contain them but you know it is temporary at best.  That idea of an unstoppable development is also a part of the fan experience for me.  Being a fan has caused me to sprout rooting interests all over the NBA and much of the fun of the sport for me is following these interests: rooting for and against players, teams, coaches, and even owners (see: Cuban, Mark).  

A good example is players you pass over in the draft or trade away.  There is a natural aversion to seeing those players dominate.  Fans want to feel good about the moves their team makes and their own players.  Let's say for example that your team drafts Andrea Bargnani.  Does it feel good to watch Brandon Roy blow up?  Not really.  So as the season goes on you are rooting for Bargnani to be better and Roy to trip up.  You are rationalizing your teams pick and hoping it pans out.  But there is this aura of inevitability around Roy that you can't shake.  The little voice in your head is telling you that Roy is slowly joining death and taxes on that list of things you can't avoid.  You rationalize harder (maybe even inexcusably voting for Bargnani for rookie of the year).  Eventually the game is up...  Roy ascends to all star status and bargnani sputters to mediocrity.  You knew it was coming, you just didn't want to admit it.  Which brings us to...

Oden and Durant

When they were drafted I was an Oden guy, but I had no problem with seeing them both blossom into stars.  When Greg went down with the knee, a rooting interest was born.  The only thing that could make the loss of Greg and the stalling of his career more painful was watching Durant storm the league.  So I started rooting against KD.  Box score watching, L counting, and hoping for failure.  During his rookie season there was much reason to rejoice - Durant was a volume chucker on a terrible team.  He couldn't pass or defend.  He made bad teammates worse.  He was a terrible player, overrated by the gullible for his empty scoring stats.  Oden, by any advanced metric, had a better impact on his team by sitting in street clothes doing nothing than Durant did with his putrid play.  There was only one teeny tiny problem...  I knew it was coming.  I couldn't rationalize it away.  His ascension was inevitable and I knew it.  His second year he still didn't do much winning, passing, defending, or teammate improving.  But he did a little more of them than year one.  And the chucker tag died completely to the tune of 47% shooting.  This year the thunder are improving.  The defense is sound, his teammates are better with him on the floor than off and his scoring is still sublime.  The point is, I have given up on rooting against KD's imminent rise.  What's the point?  He will fix whatever needs to be fixed (next up: passing?) and keep getting better.  He has it.  

So what about Greg?

Greg sat out a year.  He came back and got hurt again.  He came back tentative, slow, robbed of his explosiveness, and looking like a rookie.  He traveled, he got blocked from behind, he got rim checked, he got stripped.  He fumbled passes, he fouled, he turned it over, he chipped his kneecap.  And all the while even though advanced stats told of value and efficiency and potential, he just didn't look right.  Everybody with a rooting interest against him howled about the great bust Greg Oden.  The only people that kept the faith were (some) Blazer fans and a few wacky statheads that were easily drowned out by the Stephen A Smith types that know everything.

But something happened along the way.  Something perhaps unexpected.  Something magical.  

Greg got the aura.

His detractors knew it.

It is beyond delicious watching them squirm while it unfolds.

When Greg has a couple of subpar games due to foul trouble or turnovers, his detractors try to keep the hope alive.  They rationalize.  They blow smoke.  They get ratings.  But at the same time they must have that  terrible inescapable little feeling.  This can't last.  It's just a matter of time.  All his points and rebounds and blocks are just stuck behind a dam.  They are coming no matter what... unstoppable and inevitable as a river.  When the dam fails then all hell is going to break loose and the talking heads had better have flood insurance.

The Simmons' of the world only have one hope left for them to be right, and that is health.  That is why they rail so hard on the injury narrative.  They are subconsciously hoping their last hope.

Stay healthy Greg...  this is just getting fun 

Hello Blazersedge!

Avid reader, first time poster here.  I unexpectedly have an extra ticket for the rockets game.  The deal is simple:  you make a contribution to the kids night and the ticket is all yours.  The seat is in section 306 which is a corner red section.  These are generally around twenty bucks but with the variable pricing the Blazers site had them at $47 plus fees.  I think around $40 to the kids is reasonable.  Two kids get to go to blazersedge night, you get to go to opening night, and I get the considerable gravitas of having my first post be an altruistic tour de force!  Thats a win-win-win-win-win situation (kid-kid-you-me-blazers).  If anyone is interested let me know.  Hopefully if you paypal the money over to Dave he can post a confirmation here and then I'll see you at the game.  I ride the max in and like to get there a little early so hopefully thats not a problem.  

If this should be a different type of post, er, pack it buddy its for the kids!