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MattDNole

  • joined Nov 14, 2008
  • last login Dec 04, 2013
  • posts 73
  • comments 6472

A Fan Of...

  • MLB Atlanta Braves
  • NCAAF Florida St. Seminoles
  • NCAAB Florida St. Seminoles
  • Tennis Maria Sharapova
User Blog

FSU's true BCS competition is August, not Oregon

395

We take a look at historical BCS debates and find out that the majority of the time, as between undefeated teams, the debate was settled before the season ever began.

FSU's Search For An Opponent: Scheduling To Maximize Under The BCS System

389

How should Florida State schedule non-conference games to maximize its BCS chances?

Offbeat Friday's Contribution to Your NSD Experience

4

Recruiting is 20 times more fun if you click this button after reading every new update about some player who's "wavering". Enjoy!!

Our long (Tomahawk)National nightmare is over! The exile of your humble Offbeat Friday staff has...

15

Our long (Tomahawk)National nightmare is over! The exile of your humble Offbeat Friday staff has finally reached its end. For those of you who hadn't heard, Bud banished us for 4 months and forced us to write a romantic comedy about two college football bloggers who fall in love despite the disapproval of their bosses at ESPN and SBNation. It was pure crap. Needless to say, we're a little gun-shy about trying to come up with anything funny these days. So we've got to start small. And why should we even bother writing new humorous stuff when our friends down south are doing such a good job on their own? Next time you find yourself reading a tweet or a Rivals report regarding the Miami coaching search, just play this video in the background. It will make the experience 100% more enjoyable. PS- This also works for highlights of UF's offense.

How much did bunting Mike McGee against TCU cost us? I put FSU's stats into the spreadsheet found...

44

How much did bunting Mike McGee against TCU cost us? I put FSU's stats into the spreadsheet found at the link below, and assumed Tyler Holt and Sherman Johnson both had a better than average probability of taking an extra base on the different types of hits (with Holt's % being higher than Sherman's). Run Expectancy Matrix The average number of runs, from this base/out state, to the end of the inning. Bases 0 outs 1 out 2 outs xxx 0.863 0.461 0.170 1xx 1.392 0.816 0.337 x2x 1.514 0.936 0.442 xx3 1.721 1.146 0.473 12x 2.106 1.344 0.629 1x3 2.262 1.516 0.653 x23 2.384 1.636 0.757 123 3.016 2.113 1.034 So the number of runs we could expect to score in that situation dropped from 2.106 to 1.636, about .5 of a run. Not enough to say that this decision "cost us the game," but still a willful probabilistic risk. It definitely negatively impacted our win expectation. Run Frequency Matrix The chance of at least one run scoring, from this base/out state, at some point during the inning. -- If there is a runner on base, it's the chance that the lead runner will eventually score in the inning. -- If there is no runner on base, it's the chance that someone will reach base and score, at some point during the inning. Bases 0 outs 1 out 2 outs xxx 0.378 0.234 0.101 1xx 0.530 0.355 0.168 x2x 0.652 0.475 0.272 xx3 0.858 0.684 0.303 12x 0.713 0.528 0.292 1x3 0.870 0.700 0.316 x23 0.870 0.700 0.316 123 0.910 0.769 0.405 Not only that, but the probability of scoring anything at all dropped by about a percentage point. Martin's bunts aren't necessarily catastrophic. Over the course of the season they may only cost us a few runs and maybe only a game or two. I'll even admit that sometimes calling for a bunt with certain batters is a good decision. But not with Mike McGee. Bunting with Mike McGee always decreases the number of runs we can expect to score and, with only one exception (runner on 2nd no outs), decreases our probability of scoring at all. Keep in mind these numbers are based on the team's actual stats, and should therefore account for variations in pitchers, the risk of double plays, etc due to the large sample size over the entire season. This formula does not, however, allow for base stealing or getting caught stealing, so that could impact the result a little bit.

http://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html

Introduction to Statistics: Football Edition

275

A quick tutorial on how to predict a team's upcoming record.

Offbeat Friday: You call that NCAA expansion? This is NCAA expansion.

28

Tomahawk Nation's Offbeat Friday series takes a look at what the ACC should really do if conferences start expanding.

Jumbo Athlete Amos Lapp Commits to the Florida State Seminoles

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The Noles may have got a head start on the 2011 recruiting class, but apparently they weren't quite done with the 2010 class just yet.   Today they picked up a commitment from Amos Lapp, a 6'3''...

Offbeat Friday: Getting you ready for the Florida State Baseball season

129

Offbeat Friday: Tomahawk Nation gets readers prepared for the upcoming college baseball season.

Offbeat Friday: Move over, "I can has cheezburger", It's time for some lolFSU

35

Offbeat Friday: TomahawkNation's unconventional Friday series tries its hand at lol'ing.

FSU vs Maryland Basketball Tonight at 9pm Check your local listings for Raycom sports Those going...

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FSU vs Maryland Basketball Tonight at 9pm Check your local listings for Raycom sports Those going to the game should wear white, because it is Greivis Vasquez's least favorite color and he is an insufferable douchebag. Also, there's a white out planned. Don't forget, Gary Williams is a sweaty drunk. The Noles look to go to 5-3 in the ACC and 17-5 overall. They also hope to avenge a January 10th loss, 77-68, at Maryland. Pomeroy gives us a 56% chance of winning this game. (Apologies to TC, who is still on sabbatical, for the shoddy quality of my preview. Unfortunately, like Leonard Hamilton, I let the recruiting supersede getting a gameplan ready for tonight.)

Florida State's Post Signing Day Hangover

113

How did Florida State's class compare to the rest of the ACC?

FanPost
388

Offtopic Discussion Thread #Whatever

Yeah I messed up and hijacked a regular thread.  We need to keep our off topic discussions in a separate place.  Like here.   Someone please rec this so it stays pinned for those of us who chat...

Offbeat Friday: It's a College Football Christmas

49

It's a wacky college football Christmas special at Tomahawk Nation.

Offbeat Friday: Florida State Recruiting Coordinator James Coley is the Solution to Your Commitment Issues

158

TomahawkNation's Offbeat Friday series imagines following Florida State Recruiting Coordinator James Coley around for a day.

Florida State Boosters Fail to Pay Western Kentucky Enough Money to Hire Their Rejects

39

I guess the Hilltoppers are committed to winning. PS- There had been some thought that Chuck Amato would be WKU's next head coach. No matter, he is still gone after the UF game and will stop sabotaging FSU's program. Have no fear, FSU fans, recruits are already laughing at him and talking about him in the past tense). PPS- I just added a Twitter homework assignment. All you tweeters out there, let's make #DesignerShadesBigManBoobs a top trending topic!!

Happy Birthday Coach Bowden!!

41
Willard_20scott

Happy Birthday Coach Bowden!!

This picture never gets old. The dude in it, however, still does.

20
Clemsonguygowooo

This picture never gets old. The dude in it, however, still does.

Who Might Jimbo Fisher Select as Florida State's New Defensive Coordinator?

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Who might replace Florida State's defensive coaches? We give a list of potential candidates with connections to Jimbo Fisher.

Offbeat Friday: Chuck Amato sings ABBA in order to get the Florida State Defensive Coordinator Job

20

Offbeat Friday: Tomahawk Nation reworks an old ABBA classic on behalf of Chuck Amato.

A Real Statistical Analysis of Jimbo Fisher v. Jeff Bowden: A Response to Andrew Carter's Article

162

We conduct a more thorough analysis of the Bowden vs. Fisher debate.

TrueNole Wished for you to See this article from Andrew Carter

3

Apparently Andrew's mom got him a new calculator and he wanted to sit at the big boy table.

FanPost
37

Noles Didn't Start the Fire (The Bobby Bowden Retirement Song)

Last night I decided to try my hand at song-writing.  Be gentle. (PS- You might want to listen to the real song one time to get the rhthym in your head.)   Music:  Roughly taken from Billy...

Offbeat Friday: Bobby Bowden Pregame Speech Gets the FireJoeMorgan Treatment

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What would the guys from FireJoeMorgan.com have to say about Coach Bobby Bowden's pregame speeches? Tomahawk Nation has an idea.

The writers of The Office must read Tomahawk Nation

7

If you have time today, you definitely want to check last night's episode out. It is about 22 minutes long, and is remarkably applicable to what we've been talking about this week. Playing the part of: Jimbo- Jim Halpert Chuck Amato- Dwight Schrute Bobby Bowden- Michael Scott Note: DO NOT watch this while working. I cannot take responsibility for you getting fired.

Thoughts and Prayers From MattDNole to NoleCC

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In spite of all our bickering, I don't dislike the guy, he's a real Nole. Prayers for a speedy recovery!!

MattDNole's Guide to Being a True Seminole

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MattDNole offers a few suggestions for decorum at a Seminole football game. How can you tell if you're a True Seminole?

Early Games Discussion Thread #2

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We'll start the FSU talk around 6:30.   Here is the place we can discuss the 3:30 games.

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