SB Nation User Blog: MattR

Texans' Nick Ferguson has a neat idea

MattR — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:32:59 -0000

Texans' Nick Ferguson has a neat idea

The team had an autograph session recently and Ferguson asked each fan who came to him for their autograph. The article also has some good background on Ferguson and GM Rick Smith

Broncos sign Michael Pittman

MattR — Tue, 27 May 2008 20:09:10 -0000

This is being reported online by Pro Football Talk and ESPN. They do not have any other details about the contract or who was cut. I was a bit surprised initially, but I just read that Travis Henry missed today's workouts due to his hamstring. Pittman is a decent veteran backup if Henry's hamstring injury lingers. And my guess is that it is a one year deal for the veteran's minimum (maybe with a $40K signing bonus).

Not much else to add, but wanted to get the news out there.

Cutler adjusting to life with diabetes (Yahoo Sports)

MattR — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:40:50 -0000

Cutler adjusting to life with diabetes (Yahoo Sports)

The author of this article has a son with Type I diabetes. He does a very good job explaining the disease itself as well as the life style changes associated with living with it.

Marcus Thomas will not be charged

MattR — Sat, 10 May 2008 05:15:21 -0000

Marcus Thomas will not be charged

What I expected, but good news nonetheless. One more thing that the team can put behind them before camp.

Additional details are here

Jack Williams scouting report from Stampede Blue

MattR — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 17:02:42 -0000

Jack Williams scouting report from Stampede Blue

Here is a pre-draft article written about Jack Williams from one of the SB Nation blogs (and written by the Guru's draft day partner Big Blue Shoe)

Ted Sundquist on the draft

MattR — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 21:01:49 -0000

Ted Sundquist on the draft

I know it is written by Bill Williamson, but the article has some pretty good insight into the draft process from Sundquist.

Roster Breakdown - a final look before the draft

MattR — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 05:38:57 -0000

Here's one last look at the state of the roster before the draft. Denver has 9 draft picks and will probably add 3 or 4 free agents during or right after the draft. So I am guessing three or four guys will get cut before the draft to make room on the roster, although I guess they could wait and see if they make any trades during the draft that open up a roster spot(s). Denver will have to cut another set of players in July when they sign the rookie draftees.

Based solely on roster numbers, Denver needs to add a kicker and a punter/kicker. They need to add at least 2 DT, 1 OT and one other OL. Based on talent and contract situations, I will guess that Denver adds a DB and at least one more DL, possibly two. They will also add some type of offensive skill position player (RB/WR), possibly 2 as well as possibly another offensive lineman. That makes for 6 "definite" and 3 "likely" additions and 3 "possiblities" for a total of 12. This matches up pretty well with the 12-13 players that I project them adding.

I thought about trying to predict how it will all break down, but this season is tougher than most to read. Nonetheless, I will throw a few things out there. Denver trades a 4th/5th and 6th/7th for D-Rob. They use a 6th/7th on a P or K. They use one 4th rounder on a DT and a 4th/5th rounder on a OL. They will sign a free agent P or K (whichever is not drafted). And to fill the last "definite need" Denver will either sign a free agent or use a first day pick. Assuming they sign a free agent, Denver would have filled the "definite" needs while keeping 4 picks for other needs (1st, 2nd, 4th/5th, 7th). With those "extra" picks, nothing short of drafting Matt Ryan would surprise me. But I do think Denver has the flexibility to take the players they want (best player available or biggest improvement over the current roster or whatever) on the first day knowing that they should be able to fill their remaining needs later in the draft.

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Looks Good for now	Still on the Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey			Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell		Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	10	8 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez Darrell Jackson Sammie Parker	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd	Marquay McDaniel	Cliff Russell
TE	6	6	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	10	6 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson		Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Josh Mallard	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck	Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid	Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquay McDaniel Hamza Abdullah		Rod Rogers Marviel Underwood	Steve Cargile Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	2	2 of 3	Sam Palescu	Danny Baugher
K	2	1	1 of 2	Matt Prater
	75	80	56 of 80	44	12	9	15

Some notes on the chart.
The min column are the minimum values taken from my previous diaries. They add up to 75 of the 80 spots.
(The darker rows in that column are ones I project the Broncos will bring over the min to camp)
The "My #" is the number of "Locks"+"Probables" then my guess for the number brought to camp.
(ie. "3 of 5" means that there are a combination of three players who are locks or probable and the team will bring 5 guys to camp)
Anyone with any doubt went into the "Bubble" column.

Roster Breakdown - Safeties: a closer look

MattR — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 06:18:18 -0000

This started as an idea for a comment in a post HoosierTeacher did last week looking at the Broncos moves during the reloading season (link here). It also dovetails with a post I had done looking at which Broncos will make it to training camp. (link here) In that post, I theorized that only 6 of the 8 safeties currently on the roster will make it to training camp.

The top four are pretty obvious - John Lynch, Hamza Abdullah, Marlon McCree and Marquand Manuel. The other four on the roster are Steve Cargile, Roderick Rogers, Marviel Underwood and Vickiel Vaughn. It seems the conventional wisdom is that Cargile pretty much has a spot locked up, but I don't think that is the case. Here's why.

I agree with HoosierTeacher that Denver looks better at safety than last year. I also agree that this is a short term fix. Lynch is most likely done after this year. Both Abdullah and McCree are scheduled to be free agents although either of them could be resigned during the season. But for 2008, the top four look pretty solid.

With that in mind, I think that Denver is going to be looking towards 2009 with any other safeties they keep on their roster. While there may be room for a fifth safety on the 53 man roster and even a sixth one on the practice squad, there is generally room for only 4 safeties on the 45 man active roster on game days. Right now if they can stay healthy (a huge assumption I know) the top 4 listed above should have those spots locked up.

As a result I do not see a lot of room for a ST contributor like Cargile to be active on game day. If he is going to earn a spot on the roster (and even to training camp) it will have to be based on his play as a safety. It is very possible that he has progressed enough to get that spot, but if Denver does not think that he will ever be a player they can use on defense they may decide to cut ties now. (I do not mean to diminish the value of special teams. I did watch the Chicago game last year :( But I don't think either Cargile, or Paul Smith for that matter, are good enough special teamers to merit a roster spot based solely on ST play.) Based purely on safety play, I rank Cargile as third or fourth of the bottom group.

I would put Rod Rogers at the top of that list. He was undrafted out of Wisconsin last year, but made the practice squad then worked his way up to the active roster for the last couple games. Dominique Foxworth is high on Rogers and Rogers could turn out to be a diamond in the rough like Abdullah is shaping up to be (hopefully). I don't think he is ready to contribute this year, but by 2009 he may be improved enough to deserve playing time.

Next on the list is Marviel Underwood, who was a fourth round pick of GB in 2005 and had a decent rookie year before blowing out his knee in the preseason his second year (2006). He was pretty much out of football last year with short stints in GB and then Denver. Denver cut him when they promoted Rod Rogers to the active roster, but resigned Underwood once the season ended. It is said that a player is fully back from knee surgery in his second year. If Underwood is recovered, he is a solid safety prospect and could compete for a starting job in 2009.

Last up is Vickiel Vaughn who was the second to last pick of the 2006 draft and spent the season on IR with the 49ers before they cut him at the end of camp last year. I really don't know much about him and have a feeling he will be cut before training camp starts. My uneducated guess would put him neck and neck with Cargile as an NFL safety.

Summing up, if Denver does not add a safety during the draft and if they only bring 6 safeties to camp, here is how I think things will work themselves out. Lynch, McCree, Manuel and Abdullah are coming to camp. Rod Rogers is pretty close to a lock. Underwood will be given a chance in mini-camps and other team activities to show that he is fully healthy. If he can show that, he gets the sixth training camp invitation. If not, it will probably go to Cargile over Vaughn. In fact, I would say that Vaughn could be cut in the next couple weeks as Denver tweaks its roster with vets and signs college free agents after the draft. But the end result is that I see Cargile's future with the Broncos being far from secure.

Roster breakdown entering camp (part 2)

MattR — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 20:39:18 -0000

I was gonna wait a bit and add some notes to each position, but I think it fits in well with what Jon Tollerud has been doing so I don't want to wait. Below is a look at the current Broncos roster. Denver is currently at the 80 man limit so every draft pick and free agent signing has to have a corresponding cut/trade.

Some notes on the chart.
The "min" column has the minimum values taken from my previous diaries. They add up to 75 of the 80 spots. (The darker rows in that column are ones I project the Broncos will bring over the min to camp)

The "My #" is the number of "Locks"+"Probables" then my guess for the number brought to camp. (ie. "3 of 5" means that there are a combination of three players who are locks or probable and the team will bring 5 guys to camp)

Anyone with any doubt went into the "Bubble" column.

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey		Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell	Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	9	7 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd Marquay McDaniel	Derrick Hamilton Cliff Russell
TE	6	7	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce Chad Upshaw
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	11	7 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson Josh Mallard	Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Antwon Burton	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquand Manuel	Hamza Abdullah	Rod Rogers Steve Cargile Marviel Underwood Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	1	1 of 2	Sam Palescu
K	2	1	1 of 3	Matt Prater
	75	80	55 of 80	41	14	25

I have 25 players listed as on the bubble. Looking at the list of player's there are no inspiring names that jump out off the page, but that does not make these players insignificant. These guys could be this year's Selvin Young and Glenn Martinez or they could be Jacob Rogers and Troy Fleming.

One other note as we look at the bottom of the roster. In general, the coaches have the advantage over the casual fan when it comes to evaluating players since they have access to extra and more comprehensive film as well as actual practice time. I don't know that I have ever seen any of the 25 bubble guys on my TV so it is virtually impossible for the fans to see what the coaches do.

Denver has 9 draft choices and should sign one or two veteran free agents plus 3 or 4 college free agents for a total of 14. Each addition requires a cut. I will talk about this more in a future diary, but it is something to keep in mind as we create our mock drafts over the next couple weeks. For a quick taste of what I mean, consider the QB position. With Patrick Ramsey becoming a free agent after this year, Denver could conceviably draft a prospect who can develop into a backup. However, because of roster restrictions, adding a QB means cutting Hackney or Finnerty. Not a great loss, but at the same time is some 6th or 7th round QB a better prospect than either of them?

I'd kinda like to postpone questions like that for the moment and focus on the chart itself. I'd like to get some feedback on both the numbers and how I have classified the players. Thoughts? Suggestions for changes?

[editor's note, by MattR] Here is a link to part one

Roster size/breakdown in training camp

MattR — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 23:37:11 -0000

One of the recent rule proposals that was defeated was to increase the maximum number of players from 80 to 86 for the start of training camp. The reason this rule was proposed is that teams used to get roster exemptions for players in NFL Europe. This allowed them to bring in an extra 5-8 players (I am guessing on that number) for the start of training camp. Now that NFL Europe is defunct, the coaches did not want to lose those extra players. Hence the rule proposal.

Before I get into what this means for the Broncos, I started by thinking of the minimum number of players the team would want to have in training camp. This is based partially on the talent at each position, but more on what is actually needed to run the drills in camp. (For example, Denver always brings a second kicker in to camp to split duties with Elam) My general rule of thumb was that the team would want to be at least 3 deep at each position.

Here are the numbers I came up with, but they really are guesses and I would love some feedback.

4 QB's, 6 RB's (including FB), 8 WR's, 6 TE (including Leach), 13 OL.
7 DE's, 7 DT's, 8 LB's, 6 CB's, 6 S's, 3 K's, 2 P's.
That is a total of 76 of the 80 roster spots accounted for.

These numbers seem reasonable? How would you tweak them?