SB Nation User Blog: MattR

A Brandon Marshall thought experiment - the dropoff in stats

MattR — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 07:46:03 -0000

Now this is going to require a little imagination since we are going into the world of hypotheticals. One of the more common thoughts voiced around these parts, and elsewhere, is that Marshall is trying to get money now since his stats are going to drop with Kyle Orton at QB. Follow me across the jump if you want to explore this tidea in the land of make believe.

The first thing we have to do is go back a few weeks before Marshall's unhappiness was known. At that point in time, what do you think a reasonable contract would have been and/or what do you think Marshall could have gotten on the open market, bearing in mind his hip injury and history of off the field incidents.

Now assume that Brandon goes through 2009 showing no lingering effects of his injury and he stays out of trouble off the field. Would a single season be enough to ease your concerns and give him a long term deal? I assume that his value on the open market would increase somewhat, though not to the level of a player with no incidents or question marks..

So here's my question - How much would his stats have to drop off to decrease his market value by the same amount that he increased it with his health and stability? If he dropped off to 80 catches for 1100 yds and 6 TD's would he be worth more or less on the open market in May 2010 as he was worth in May 2009. How far would you have expected his stats to fall (prior to all this) and would that have left him as a more or less valuable commodity?

Since Marshall was in the last year of a contract he has outperformed, none of this is a surprise to me and I have been thinking about my answers to these questions. But I am not going to post them now since I am more interested in the conversation and what you think and I don't want to steer it too much from the start. However, I will add a comment at some point tommorrow with my thoughts

From the denver post

MattR — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 07:58:33 -0000

From the denver post

In defense of Jay Cutler (and why he has to be traded)

MattR — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:12:45 -0000

I am not going to try to say that Cutler is blameless in this situation or that he could not have handled things better, but I have been reading some of the posts/comments and have been surprised to see how quickly people have completely turned on him. I appear to be part of a small minority that thinks that Cutler has not really done anything that egregiously wrong so far (obviously Monday could change things).

IMO, the biggest reason for this discrepancy is a difference in our perception about Cutler's complaints. It seems that quite a lot of people are stuck on this idea that Jay Cutler thinks that he is untradeable, entitled to his spot, above the team, etc.. I just don't buy that basic premise. I think Cutler was surprised initially and made comments about being shocked/hurt to hear his name came up in trade talks, but as he has subsequently said the issue for him is a matter of trust and the feeling that he was lied to by McDaniels and the Broncos organization.

I don't know if Cutler is right to feel that way (and frankly he would be deservedly ripped for publicizing the details necessary to prove he is justified in his belief), but I do believe that it is an honest feeling. You may disagree or think it is a smokescreen and you may be right and all the speculation from experts and the comments from anonymous sources may be correct. But I am going to wait for Jay Cutler himself to say or do something before I change my mind.

Unfortunately if there is a lack of trust, it will not be too productive for the Broncos and Cutler to stay together. Cutler is still a work in progress and needs refining and coaching to become a truly elite QB. But a large part of successful coaching is convincing a player to have enough faith to make the coach's changes/adjustments even if the player does not see the short term gains. Among players and coaches with no past history, the player can still have an unconcious fear/distrust of what he is being told and will resist the coaching. If there is actual, active distrust of the coach by the player, I just don't see how they can coexist productively so unless things actually get resolved (not just patched up) I think it is best for both parties to go their separate ways.

Poll

What is Jay's complaint with the Broncos?

Doesn't trust the team

27 votes

Thinks he is too good to trade

14 votes

A bit of both

30 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Jeff Jagodzinski (head coach at BC) - Two distinct questions

MattR — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 06:17:15 -0000

For those who don't know, Jeff Jagodzinski is the current head coach at Boston College. His name made the news recently when it came out that the Jets were interested in interviewing him for their head coaching vacancy. The athletic director at BC has threatened to fire Jagodzinski if he goes on the interview, but latest accounts are that the interview will still take place on Monday.

This brings me to the first question: Is the Boston College athletic director out of line in threatening to fire the head coach for interviewing for other positions? I am guessing it has to depend in the exact details of the contracts and the discussions they had prior to signing the deal, Jagodzinski's history is mixed between the NFL and college. Jeff started out as an offensive line coach for Northern Illinois, LSU and East Carolina before joining BC as their offensive coordinator for the 1997 and 1998 seasons. From there, he jumped to the NFL, serving as the Packers TE coaches for several years before being relieved of those duties after the 2003 season. He then spent two years in Atlanta as the offensive line coach working with Alex Gibbs. At the end of that time, GB brought Jeff and his new found talents/schemes back to be their offensive coordinator in 2006. A year later Jeff jumped to the college ranks and has been the head coach of BC for the past two years, going 11-3 the first year (with Matt Ryan) and then 9-5 this year. The reason I brought up the whole history was to point out that it seems reasonable that Jagodzinski would have a clause that would allow him to return to the NFL as a head coach.

The second question popped up as I was reading his bio. I can understand how appealng the Jets might be to Jagodzinski since it would reunite him with Favre - though only for one season. Then I began to wonder if he would be a good fit in Denver. Obviously, his focus on the offensive side of the ball is a bit of a negative. But that can be overcome if the coach and owner have an agreed upon philosophy of defense and a list of candidates for the DC position that meet that philosophy. But on the positive side, his offensive philosphies seem to be based around a zone blocking scheme and an attacking passing game which is a perfect fit for the Broncos. If this came to pass, I would like to see Jeremy Bates stick around as OC and learn some of the wrinkles that Coach Jagodzinski has added to the system.

As far as the first question goes, I think the school is doing more harm than good. It is questionable, at best, that the Jets would hire Jagodzinski and I think going through the interview process can only help him understand his weaknesses as a coach as well as a more complete understanding of what the NFL is looking for - in both coaches and players. If he was interviewing constantly I could understand the argument that the coach is showing no loyalty, but in this case it seems to be a one time thing with a dream job that Jeff never expected to materialize when he first took the BC job.

As for the second question, I don't know enough about Jeff Jagodzinski as a coach to make an evaluation, though I have heard some positive comments about his character. I think he background gives him the experience needed to be an NFL head coach. While I still prefer a coach that can change the defensive mindset of the club, I think Jagodzinski should be on the short list of "offensive" coaches being considered

Anyone going to the Carolina game next week?

MattR — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:47:40 -0000

I know I am jumping ahead a bit and I am definitely not overlooking the Chiefs, but the recent fanposts from people at the Jets game got me excited. I am flying down to Charlotte for the game on Dec 14 and would love to meet up with some other Broncos fans beforehand. I will be meeting friends down there and I assume we will be tailgating (especially now that it has been moved to a 4 pm start).

Anyone else gonna be there and want to try and get together before the game?

A thought experiment (to help distract you from the pain)

MattR — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 03:59:24 -0000

Like most of you I have questions about decisions the Broncos have made in the past couple years - play calls, game plans, roster moves, etc. All the media coverage in the world can't tell fans the reasons why teams make most of these decisions (In this case, this is not a knock on the media. It is just the reality of teams' secrecy)

So my question is this - If you could be a fly in the wall in Shanahan's office and could hear the reasoning and back and forth behind the Broncos decisions but you could not repeat that info to anyone, would you want to know it? Or would having that knowledge without being able to share it be torture?

Poll

Would you want to know the secrets of the Denver Broncos if you could not repeat them?

Yes, obviously

24 votes

Yes, but it's not a no-brainer

11 votes

No, I thought about it but I'll pass

5 votes

No way

2 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed

A Brandon Marshall story I never heard before

MattR — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 14:57:13 -0000

We have all heard the stories about Brandon Marshall's off field troubles. But I came across something today that I had never heard about before and I was hoping someone here would be able to fill me in with the details. There was an article in the Orlando Sentinel about the relationship between Marshall and Jags WR Mike Walke, who played and roomed together at UCF. It was a nice piece, but nothing special until I saw this quote

When Marshall took in his young sister's son, Walker helped watch him, too.

I have never heard anything about this before. It sounds like it shows a different side of Brandon than the public has seen. Anyone heard about this or know more? (Assuming the details are public of course. I don't want to intrude on the Marshall family's privacy).

The Trilogy - Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Floyd Little

MattR — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:28:07 -0000

Sam Adams at the Rocky Mountain News has an excellent article related to the release of the movie "The Express: The Ernie Davis Story". The article focuses on Davis's relationship with Little. Davis recruited Little to follow him to Syracuse just as Jim Brown had recruited Davis. All three wore the number 44 and each had an amazing career with Little breaking many of the records that were set by Jim Brown and subsequently broken by Ernie Davis. The whole article is absolutely worth reading as is the video accompanying it (there is a link on the right side of the article to the video). I will leave you with this quote from the article, but go read the entire thing.

"Floyd was probably the best of all of us in college," Brown said. "He doesn't get his due. The man should be in the (Pro Football) Hall of Fame. Here we are talking about Jim Brown and Ernie Davis, and there's Floyd Little - a three-time All-American who's probably better than both of them."

To be clear, Brown was talking about Little's college achievements but even that statement is remarkable considering that Jim Brown was probably the greatest all around college athlete of the last 75 years.

Some random thoughts on the Broncos through three weeks

MattR — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:33:05 -0000

This is just a collection of things that have gone through my mind the past few weeks.

I read the ESPN.com columns on the next wave of young QB’s. I loved the analysts there and elsewhere who complained that Jay Cutler appeared to force the ball late in the season last year when perhaps Cutler’s primary issue with his undiagnosed diabetes was that he did not have the zip on his throws. I wonder who else would appear to force their throws if the ball came out at only 80-90% velocity.
Tony Scheffler needs to step it up. He has made some nice good plays, but also some costly ones – most notably the fumble vs NO and the dropped TD vs Oakland. He is not on the field in goal line situations; Denver is using Graham, Nate Jackson and Lichtensteiger in the jumbo set which makes me think he may never be the (run) blocker that Denver wants.
On the other hand if Scheffler manages to win the starting job and Nalen gets healthy, all eleven offensive starters will be Broncos draftees or free agents they signed out of college. On the defensive side of the ball there are only three (Doom, Marcus Thomas and DJ) with three others seeing any time on defense (Paymah, Crowder and Moss). Looks like the 2009 draft will be focused on defense, like both the 2005 and 2007 drafts (and unlike the 2006 and 2008 drafts that focused on offense primarily)

The offensive line looks very good so far - no sacks allowed and relatively few penalties (and none that were costly). If you did not know better, you would never guess how inexperienced our tackles are, that there is only one starter returning from last year or that he is playing a different position. The only weird thing I have noticed is that a couple times Wiegmann seems to be slow with the snap (or the exchange is not perfectly smooth) and as a result he and Cutler are the last two players moving.
Michael Pittman is doing a pretty good impression of the 1991 version of Gerald Riggs. Riggs had 5 TD's in the first four games that year and finished the season with 11 TD's that covered 17 yards total (his long was 7 on his fifth TD of the year so do the math on the other 10). He had 78 carries for 248 yards the entire season and did not start a game, yet he was a key part of the Skins Super Bowl champion team, including a pair of TD's in each of the three playoff games. He really opened it up in the playoffs with runs of 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3 yards. So far Pittman has TD runs of 3,1,1 and 2 yards. He has totals of 19 carries for 44 yards (2.3 avg). We'll see how that changes if/when Torain is healthy and ready to play.
I am trying to reserve judgment on the defense until I take another look at the Saints game, but one thing I want to comment on is the nickel corner situation. I don’t think the issue is Karl Paymah vs Jack Williams so much as the way that the nickel CB is being used, especially against San Diego. Do you blame Karl Paymah for not being able to cover Chris Chambers or do you blame the coaches who allowed those two to be isolated on the outside while Dre Bly covered Legedu Naanee in the slot where he has safety help?
The defense seems to lack in-game flexibility and adjustments. In general, the defense has started off pretty strong. But then the offense seems to figure out what Denver is doing defensively and they make adjustments. Right now, Slowick does not seem to be making good, if any, counter-adjustments. Related to this, the defense does not seem to be varying the pre-snap looks they show the offense.
As for special teams, the coverage units still need to improve but the rest of the unit is improved. Prater and Kern look good so far (as good or better than the men they replaced). The return units look better too although I see the opposing gunners on punt coverage beating their blockers downfield too often.
Teams should be fined if they accumulate a certain number of personal foul penalties in a game. (Sorry, watching Man U vs Chelsea while I type this and the EPL has a rule for yellow/red cards)

A couple things that probably go without saying

1) The red zone turnovers have to stop, especially in the fourth quarter

2) The offense needs to be able to maintain a long drive with the running game, especially when they have a lead.

3) The defense needs to get a more consistent pass rush out of their front four.

Poll

What will Denver's record be going into the bye week (at KC, home vs Tampa and Jacksonville, at NE)

7 - 0

16 votes

6 - 1

46 votes

5 - 2

16 votes

4 - 3

0 votes

3 - 4

0 votes

other - there will be a tie

0 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Lane Kiffin rumored to be fired, again

MattR — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 06:23:22 -0000

So both Chris Mortensen of ESPN and Jay Glazer of Fox Sports are reporting that Al Davis has decided to fire Lane Kiffin. While this set of reports is a bit more ominous than the last (they say that Kiffin has been informed of the decision), there are two reasons I will wait to see it to believe it. One is that this was a tough loss for the Raiders and it is a case where sleeping on it may actually calm Davis down from an emotional overreaction (aka pulling a Steinbrenner). The other is that I don't see Davis firing Kiffin at all this season unless he thinks he can get away with not paying the rest of Kiffin's contract. Who knows, maybe Kiffin gave Davis the out he needed with his comments the last couple weeks (ala Larry Brown with the Knicks).