SBNation.com User Blog: MattR

Floyd Little HOF Ticket giveaway

MattR — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:25:05 -0000

Unfortunately, my trip to see Floyd Little inducted this weekend has fallen through. So I have six tickets for the enshrinement ceremony that are going to waste (four in the stands and two on the field). I really hate to see that and would prefer to see some other Broncos fans get to enjoy them. I know this is very short notice, but I am willing to meet up with anyone in the NYC area or I would be willing to FedEx them at my expense. If anyone is interested, please contact me at MattR_mhr@comcast.net

A Brandon Marshall thought experiment - the dropoff in stats

MattR — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 07:46:03 -0000

Now this is going to require a little imagination since we are going into the world of hypotheticals. One of the more common thoughts voiced around these parts, and elsewhere, is that Marshall is trying to get money now since his stats are going to drop with Kyle Orton at QB. Follow me across the jump if you want to explore this tidea in the land of make believe.

The first thing we have to do is go back a few weeks before Marshall's unhappiness was known. At that point in time, what do you think a reasonable contract would have been and/or what do you think Marshall could have gotten on the open market, bearing in mind his hip injury and history of off the field incidents.

Now assume that Brandon goes through 2009 showing no lingering effects of his injury and he stays out of trouble off the field. Would a single season be enough to ease your concerns and give him a long term deal? I assume that his value on the open market would increase somewhat, though not to the level of a player with no incidents or question marks..

So here's my question - How much would his stats have to drop off to decrease his market value by the same amount that he increased it with his health and stability? If he dropped off to 80 catches for 1100 yds and 6 TD's would he be worth more or less on the open market in May 2010 as he was worth in May 2009. How far would you have expected his stats to fall (prior to all this) and would that have left him as a more or less valuable commodity?

Since Marshall was in the last year of a contract he has outperformed, none of this is a surprise to me and I have been thinking about my answers to these questions. But I am not going to post them now since I am more interested in the conversation and what you think and I don't want to steer it too much from the start. However, I will add a comment at some point tommorrow with my thoughts

From the denver post

MattR — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 07:58:33 -0000

From the denver post

In defense of Jay Cutler (and why he has to be traded)

MattR — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:12:45 -0000

I am not going to try to say that Cutler is blameless in this situation or that he could not have handled things better, but I have been reading some of the posts/comments and have been surprised to see how quickly people have completely turned on him. I appear to be part of a small minority that thinks that Cutler has not really done anything that egregiously wrong so far (obviously Monday could change things).

IMO, the biggest reason for this discrepancy is a difference in our perception about Cutler's complaints. It seems that quite a lot of people are stuck on this idea that Jay Cutler thinks that he is untradeable, entitled to his spot, above the team, etc.. I just don't buy that basic premise. I think Cutler was surprised initially and made comments about being shocked/hurt to hear his name came up in trade talks, but as he has subsequently said the issue for him is a matter of trust and the feeling that he was lied to by McDaniels and the Broncos organization.

I don't know if Cutler is right to feel that way (and frankly he would be deservedly ripped for publicizing the details necessary to prove he is justified in his belief), but I do believe that it is an honest feeling. You may disagree or think it is a smokescreen and you may be right and all the speculation from experts and the comments from anonymous sources may be correct. But I am going to wait for Jay Cutler himself to say or do something before I change my mind.

Unfortunately if there is a lack of trust, it will not be too productive for the Broncos and Cutler to stay together. Cutler is still a work in progress and needs refining and coaching to become a truly elite QB. But a large part of successful coaching is convincing a player to have enough faith to make the coach's changes/adjustments even if the player does not see the short term gains. Among players and coaches with no past history, the player can still have an unconcious fear/distrust of what he is being told and will resist the coaching. If there is actual, active distrust of the coach by the player, I just don't see how they can coexist productively so unless things actually get resolved (not just patched up) I think it is best for both parties to go their separate ways.

Poll

What is Jay's complaint with the Broncos?

Doesn't trust the team

27 votes

Thinks he is too good to trade

14 votes

A bit of both

30 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Jeff Jagodzinski (head coach at BC) - Two distinct questions

MattR — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 06:17:15 -0000

For those who don't know, Jeff Jagodzinski is the current head coach at Boston College. His name made the news recently when it came out that the Jets were interested in interviewing him for their head coaching vacancy. The athletic director at BC has threatened to fire Jagodzinski if he goes on the interview, but latest accounts are that the interview will still take place on Monday.

This brings me to the first question: Is the Boston College athletic director out of line in threatening to fire the head coach for interviewing for other positions? I am guessing it has to depend in the exact details of the contracts and the discussions they had prior to signing the deal, Jagodzinski's history is mixed between the NFL and college. Jeff started out as an offensive line coach for Northern Illinois, LSU and East Carolina before joining BC as their offensive coordinator for the 1997 and 1998 seasons. From there, he jumped to the NFL, serving as the Packers TE coaches for several years before being relieved of those duties after the 2003 season. He then spent two years in Atlanta as the offensive line coach working with Alex Gibbs. At the end of that time, GB brought Jeff and his new found talents/schemes back to be their offensive coordinator in 2006. A year later Jeff jumped to the college ranks and has been the head coach of BC for the past two years, going 11-3 the first year (with Matt Ryan) and then 9-5 this year. The reason I brought up the whole history was to point out that it seems reasonable that Jagodzinski would have a clause that would allow him to return to the NFL as a head coach.

The second question popped up as I was reading his bio. I can understand how appealng the Jets might be to Jagodzinski since it would reunite him with Favre - though only for one season. Then I began to wonder if he would be a good fit in Denver. Obviously, his focus on the offensive side of the ball is a bit of a negative. But that can be overcome if the coach and owner have an agreed upon philosophy of defense and a list of candidates for the DC position that meet that philosophy. But on the positive side, his offensive philosphies seem to be based around a zone blocking scheme and an attacking passing game which is a perfect fit for the Broncos. If this came to pass, I would like to see Jeremy Bates stick around as OC and learn some of the wrinkles that Coach Jagodzinski has added to the system.

As far as the first question goes, I think the school is doing more harm than good. It is questionable, at best, that the Jets would hire Jagodzinski and I think going through the interview process can only help him understand his weaknesses as a coach as well as a more complete understanding of what the NFL is looking for - in both coaches and players. If he was interviewing constantly I could understand the argument that the coach is showing no loyalty, but in this case it seems to be a one time thing with a dream job that Jeff never expected to materialize when he first took the BC job.

As for the second question, I don't know enough about Jeff Jagodzinski as a coach to make an evaluation, though I have heard some positive comments about his character. I think he background gives him the experience needed to be an NFL head coach. While I still prefer a coach that can change the defensive mindset of the club, I think Jagodzinski should be on the short list of "offensive" coaches being considered

Anyone going to the Carolina game next week?

MattR — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:47:40 -0000

I know I am jumping ahead a bit and I am definitely not overlooking the Chiefs, but the recent fanposts from people at the Jets game got me excited. I am flying down to Charlotte for the game on Dec 14 and would love to meet up with some other Broncos fans beforehand. I will be meeting friends down there and I assume we will be tailgating (especially now that it has been moved to a 4 pm start).

Anyone else gonna be there and want to try and get together before the game?

A thought experiment (to help distract you from the pain)

MattR — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 03:59:24 -0000

Like most of you I have questions about decisions the Broncos have made in the past couple years - play calls, game plans, roster moves, etc. All the media coverage in the world can't tell fans the reasons why teams make most of these decisions (In this case, this is not a knock on the media. It is just the reality of teams' secrecy)

So my question is this - If you could be a fly in the wall in Shanahan's office and could hear the reasoning and back and forth behind the Broncos decisions but you could not repeat that info to anyone, would you want to know it? Or would having that knowledge without being able to share it be torture?

Poll

Would you want to know the secrets of the Denver Broncos if you could not repeat them?

Yes, obviously

24 votes

Yes, but it's not a no-brainer

11 votes

No, I thought about it but I'll pass

5 votes

No way

2 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed

A Brandon Marshall story I never heard before

MattR — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 14:57:13 -0000

We have all heard the stories about Brandon Marshall's off field troubles. But I came across something today that I had never heard about before and I was hoping someone here would be able to fill me in with the details. There was an article in the Orlando Sentinel about the relationship between Marshall and Jags WR Mike Walke, who played and roomed together at UCF. It was a nice piece, but nothing special until I saw this quote

When Marshall took in his young sister's son, Walker helped watch him, too.

I have never heard anything about this before. It sounds like it shows a different side of Brandon than the public has seen. Anyone heard about this or know more? (Assuming the details are public of course. I don't want to intrude on the Marshall family's privacy).

When Marshall took in his young sister's son, Walker helped watch him, too.

The Trilogy - Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Floyd Little

MattR — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:28:07 -0000

Sam Adams at the Rocky Mountain News has an excellent article related to the release of the movie "The Express: The Ernie Davis Story". The article focuses on Davis's relationship with Little. Davis recruited Little to follow him to Syracuse just as Jim Brown had recruited Davis. All three wore the number 44 and each had an amazing career with Little breaking many of the records that were set by Jim Brown and subsequently broken by Ernie Davis. The whole article is absolutely worth reading as is the video accompanying it (there is a link on the right side of the article to the video). I will leave you with this quote from the article, but go read the entire thing.

"Floyd was probably the best of all of us in college," Brown said. "He doesn't get his due. The man should be in the (Pro Football) Hall of Fame. Here we are talking about Jim Brown and Ernie Davis, and there's Floyd Little - a three-time All-American who's probably better than both of them."

To be clear, Brown was talking about Little's college achievements but even that statement is remarkable considering that Jim Brown was probably the greatest all around college athlete of the last 75 years.

"Floyd was probably the best of all of us in college," Brown said. "He doesn't get his due. The man should be in the (Pro Football) Hall of Fame. Here we are talking about Jim Brown and Ernie Davis, and there's Floyd Little - a three-time All-American who's probably better than both of them."

Some random thoughts on the Broncos through three weeks

MattR — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:33:05 -0000

This is just a collection of things that have gone through my mind the past few weeks.

I read the ESPN.com columns on the next wave of young QB’s. I loved the analysts there and elsewhere who complained that Jay Cutler appeared to force the ball late in the season last year when perhaps Cutler’s primary issue with his undiagnosed diabetes was that he did not have the zip on his throws. I wonder who else would appear to force their throws if the ball came out at only 80-90% velocity.
Tony Scheffler needs to step it up. He has made some nice good plays, but also some costly ones – most notably the fumble vs NO and the dropped TD vs Oakland. He is not on the field in goal line situations; Denver is using Graham, Nate Jackson and Lichtensteiger in the jumbo set which makes me think he may never be the (run) blocker that Denver wants.
On the other hand if Scheffler manages to win the starting job and Nalen gets healthy, all eleven offensive starters will be Broncos draftees or free agents they signed out of college. On the defensive side of the ball there are only three (Doom, Marcus Thomas and DJ) with three others seeing any time on defense (Paymah, Crowder and Moss). Looks like the 2009 draft will be focused on defense, like both the 2005 and 2007 drafts (and unlike the 2006 and 2008 drafts that focused on offense primarily)

This is just a collection of things that have gone through my mind the past few weeks.

I read the ESPN.com columns on the next wave of young QB’s. I loved the analysts there and elsewhere who complained that Jay Cutler appeared to force the ball late in the season last year when perhaps Cutler’s primary issue with his undiagnosed diabetes was that he did not have the zip on his throws. I wonder who else would appear to force their throws if the ball came out at only 80-90% velocity.
Tony Scheffler needs to step it up. He has made some nice good plays, but also some costly ones – most notably the fumble vs NO and the dropped TD vs Oakland. He is not on the field in goal line situations; Denver is using Graham, Nate Jackson and Lichtensteiger in the jumbo set which makes me think he may never be the (run) blocker that Denver wants.
On the other hand if Scheffler manages to win the starting job and Nalen gets healthy, all eleven offensive starters will be Broncos draftees or free agents they signed out of college. On the defensive side of the ball there are only three (Doom, Marcus Thomas and DJ) with three others seeing any time on defense (Paymah, Crowder and Moss). Looks like the 2009 draft will be focused on defense, like both the 2005 and 2007 drafts (and unlike the 2006 and 2008 drafts that focused on offense primarily)

The offensive line looks very good so far - no sacks allowed and relatively few penalties (and none that were costly). If you did not know better, you would never guess how inexperienced our tackles are, that there is only one starter returning from last year or that he is playing a different position. The only weird thing I have noticed is that a couple times Wiegmann seems to be slow with the snap (or the exchange is not perfectly smooth) and as a result he and Cutler are the last two players moving.
Michael Pittman is doing a pretty good impression of the 1991 version of Gerald Riggs. Riggs had 5 TD's in the first four games that year and finished the season with 11 TD's that covered 17 yards total (his long was 7 on his fifth TD of the year so do the math on the other 10). He had 78 carries for 248 yards the entire season and did not start a game, yet he was a key part of the Skins Super Bowl champion team, including a pair of TD's in each of the three playoff games. He really opened it up in the playoffs with runs of 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3 yards. So far Pittman has TD runs of 3,1,1 and 2 yards. He has totals of 19 carries for 44 yards (2.3 avg). We'll see how that changes if/when Torain is healthy and ready to play.
I am trying to reserve judgment on the defense until I take another look at the Saints game, but one thing I want to comment on is the nickel corner situation. I don’t think the issue is Karl Paymah vs Jack Williams so much as the way that the nickel CB is being used, especially against San Diego. Do you blame Karl Paymah for not being able to cover Chris Chambers or do you blame the coaches who allowed those two to be isolated on the outside while Dre Bly covered Legedu Naanee in the slot where he has safety help?
The defense seems to lack in-game flexibility and adjustments. In general, the defense has started off pretty strong. But then the offense seems to figure out what Denver is doing defensively and they make adjustments. Right now, Slowick does not seem to be making good, if any, counter-adjustments. Related to this, the defense does not seem to be varying the pre-snap looks they show the offense.
As for special teams, the coverage units still need to improve but the rest of the unit is improved. Prater and Kern look good so far (as good or better than the men they replaced). The return units look better too although I see the opposing gunners on punt coverage beating their blockers downfield too often.
Teams should be fined if they accumulate a certain number of personal foul penalties in a game. (Sorry, watching Man U vs Chelsea while I type this and the EPL has a rule for yellow/red cards)

A couple things that probably go without saying

1) The red zone turnovers have to stop, especially in the fourth quarter

2) The offense needs to be able to maintain a long drive with the running game, especially when they have a lead.

3) The defense needs to get a more consistent pass rush out of their front four.

Poll

What will Denver's record be going into the bye week (at KC, home vs Tampa and Jacksonville, at NE)

7 - 0

16 votes

6 - 1

46 votes

5 - 2

16 votes

4 - 3

0 votes

3 - 4

0 votes

other - there will be a tie

0 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Lane Kiffin rumored to be fired, again

MattR — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 06:23:22 -0000

So both Chris Mortensen of ESPN and Jay Glazer of Fox Sports are reporting that Al Davis has decided to fire Lane Kiffin. While this set of reports is a bit more ominous than the last (they say that Kiffin has been informed of the decision), there are two reasons I will wait to see it to believe it. One is that this was a tough loss for the Raiders and it is a case where sleeping on it may actually calm Davis down from an emotional overreaction (aka pulling a Steinbrenner). The other is that I don't see Davis firing Kiffin at all this season unless he thinks he can get away with not paying the rest of Kiffin's contract. Who knows, maybe Kiffin gave Davis the out he needed with his comments the last couple weeks (ala Larry Brown with the Knicks).

Some very belated HOF pics

MattR — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 01:59:50 -0000

So, my friend finally sent me some pics he took during the HOF induction weekend. Thought I would throw them up for y'all to enjoy.

Here is the poster for this year's HOF inductees. I could not resist adding the picture of this poor, delusional soul after last night's game.

Jersey's of the enshrinees

the crowd at the enshrinement ceremony

a real redskins fan

Elway's bust

and lastly, the drive

So, my friend finally sent me some pics he took during the HOF induction weekend. Thought I would throw them up for y'all to enjoy.

Here is the poster for this year's HOF inductees. I could not resist adding the picture of this poor, delusional soul after last night's game.

Jersey's of the enshrinees

the crowd at the enshrinement ceremony

a real redskins fan

Elway's bust

and lastly, the drive

Terrell Davis on The Colbert Report analyzing Obama's speech. He's pretty funny and not political.

MattR — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:12:07 -0000

Terrell Davis on The Colbert Report analyzing Obama's speech. He's pretty funny and not political.

My final roster predictions (with practice squad)

MattR — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 18:51:08 -0000

This is a combo of what I think will happen with what I would like to see. There are 56 players on the final roster since Edell Shepherd does not count since he is on IR, Carlotn Powell does not count since he is on reserve/PUP and Brandon Marshall will not count once his suspension starts on Saturday. (The fourteen rookies on the team are in italics)

** EDIT ** I have lost the ability to count. There are only 55 players in my chart below not the 56 that the Broncos can keep if Marshall's suspension is not overturned. So throw Nic Clemons onto the team as the 10th DL and 56th player.

Pos	Have Their Spot Locked Up	Will Make the Team	Practice Squad	Cuts
QB	Jay Cutler	Patrick Ramsey	Darrell Hackney
RB	Selvin Young Andre Hall	Michael Pittman, Cecil Sapp Peyton Hillis, Anthony Alridge Ryan Torain
WR	Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokely Eddie Royal, Darrel Jackson	Keary Colbert, Glenn Martinez Edell Shepherd (IR)		Marquay McDaniel Cliff Russell
TE	Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler	Nate Jackson	Brett Pierce	Chad Mustard
OL	Ryan Harris, Ryan Clady Chris Kuper, Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann	Tom Nalen Erik Pears Montrae Holland	Kory Lichtensteiger Tyler Polumbus	Dylan Gandy PJ Alexander Mitch Erickson
DL	Elvis Dumervil, Dwayne Robertson John Engelberger, Jarvis Moss Tim Crowder, Marcus Thomas	Alvin McKinley, Kenny Peterson Ebenezer Ekuban, Nic Clemons Carlton Powell (PUP)	Steven Harris	~~Nic Clemons~~ Paul Carrington Larry Birdine
LB	DJ Williams, Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides	Nate Webster, Jamie Winborn Spenser Larsen	Wesley Woodyard	Louis Green Jordan Beck
CB	Champ Bailey, Dre Bly Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Jack Williams		Tyrone Poole Wale Dada
S	Marlon McCree, Hamza Abdullah Marquand Manuel	Josh Barrett	Roderick Rogers	Vickiel Vaughn
ST	Mike Leach, Matt Prater	Brett Kern	Sam Paulescu

Is Brett Favre coming to Mile High?

MattR — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 06:34:47 -0000

In week 5 as a member of the Tampa Bay Bucs that is. The Tampa Tribune is reporting that Favre has agreed to not block a trade to Tampa and that a trade is expected in the next 24 hours. The good thing is that as of right now John Madden will not be broadcasting the game vs Denver.

Some speculation on my part - If this deal does go through, Jeff Garcia will be traded to Chicago.

What message do I send to the HOF this weekend?

MattR — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:08:44 -0000

As I have posted before, I am heading out to Canton for the HOF ceremony this weekend. We all know that even with Gary Zimmerman's induction, the Broncos are woefully underrepresented in the Hall. Without taking anything away from Zim's moment, what sign or shirt can I bring to make that point clear?

PS. TedBartlett905 has claimed one of my extra tickets but I still have three (or maybe four) available for the enshrinement ceremony on Saturday if anyone is looking for last minute plans.

Another 2007 Denver Bronco retires

MattR — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:02:04 -0000

In this story (sorry its mostly about Favre), Adam Schefter reports that Ian Gold is retiring. I was among Ian Gold's critics this past year, but there is no doubt that he was a great addition to the team during his first stint in Denver. Here is a quote from Gold explaining his decision:"I've had some people say to me, 'You're retiring?' and they think it's crazy. But it's not. It's time to move on. I'm not pulling a Brett Favre. I'm getting out of the game with my health and my youth."

Good luck Ian. Enjoy your life after football.

Anyone going to the HOF induction? (anyone want to?)

MattR — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:05:26 -0000

I have been MIA for quite a while and have a ton of good reading to catch up on here. But I finally got some free time and got my act together to finalize my trip to Canton. I will be driving out from the NYC area on Friday afternoon and will be hitting both the induction ceremony and the game before driving back late Sunday night.

Any other MHR readers heading to Canton? Any interest in a meetup somewhere (either Canton or Cleveland would work for me)?

Also, due to a miscommunication with my buddy I have extra tickets for the enshrinement ceremony. I have ~~somewhere between 1 and~~ [four] that I would like to get rid of (and recover my costs). ~~I will know the exact number about 4 pm eastern (and will update the post).~~ To be clear, these four tickets are for Saturday evening only and not for the game the following day or any other activities.

You can shoot me an email at MattR_MHR at comcast.net. If for any reason the $30 cost of the tickets is the only thing preventing you from going, shoot me an email as well. I make no guarantees, but I think I'd rather give the tickets away to some good Broncos fans than try and sell them to random people in Canton.

Any other MHR readers heading to Canton? Any interest in a meetup somewhere (either Canton or Cleveland would work for me)?

Texans' Nick Ferguson has a neat idea

MattR — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:32:59 -0000

Texans' Nick Ferguson has a neat idea

The team had an autograph session recently and Ferguson asked each fan who came to him for their autograph. The article also has some good background on Ferguson and GM Rick Smith

Broncos sign Michael Pittman

MattR — Tue, 27 May 2008 20:09:10 -0000

This is being reported online by Pro Football Talk and ESPN. They do not have any other details about the contract or who was cut. I was a bit surprised initially, but I just read that Travis Henry missed today's workouts due to his hamstring. Pittman is a decent veteran backup if Henry's hamstring injury lingers. And my guess is that it is a one year deal for the veteran's minimum (maybe with a $40K signing bonus).

Not much else to add, but wanted to get the news out there.

Cutler adjusting to life with diabetes (Yahoo Sports)

MattR — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:40:50 -0000

Cutler adjusting to life with diabetes (Yahoo Sports)

The author of this article has a son with Type I diabetes. He does a very good job explaining the disease itself as well as the life style changes associated with living with it.

Marcus Thomas will not be charged

MattR — Sat, 10 May 2008 05:15:21 -0000

Marcus Thomas will not be charged

What I expected, but good news nonetheless. One more thing that the team can put behind them before camp.

Additional details are here

Jack Williams scouting report from Stampede Blue

MattR — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 17:02:42 -0000

Jack Williams scouting report from Stampede Blue

Here is a pre-draft article written about Jack Williams from one of the SB Nation blogs (and written by the Guru's draft day partner Big Blue Shoe)

Ted Sundquist on the draft

MattR — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 21:01:49 -0000

Ted Sundquist on the draft

I know it is written by Bill Williamson, but the article has some pretty good insight into the draft process from Sundquist.

Roster Breakdown - a final look before the draft

MattR — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 05:38:57 -0000

Here's one last look at the state of the roster before the draft. Denver has 9 draft picks and will probably add 3 or 4 free agents during or right after the draft. So I am guessing three or four guys will get cut before the draft to make room on the roster, although I guess they could wait and see if they make any trades during the draft that open up a roster spot(s). Denver will have to cut another set of players in July when they sign the rookie draftees.

Based solely on roster numbers, Denver needs to add a kicker and a punter/kicker. They need to add at least 2 DT, 1 OT and one other OL. Based on talent and contract situations, I will guess that Denver adds a DB and at least one more DL, possibly two. They will also add some type of offensive skill position player (RB/WR), possibly 2 as well as possibly another offensive lineman. That makes for 6 "definite" and 3 "likely" additions and 3 "possiblities" for a total of 12. This matches up pretty well with the 12-13 players that I project them adding.

I thought about trying to predict how it will all break down, but this season is tougher than most to read. Nonetheless, I will throw a few things out there. Denver trades a 4th/5th and 6th/7th for D-Rob. They use a 6th/7th on a P or K. They use one 4th rounder on a DT and a 4th/5th rounder on a OL. They will sign a free agent P or K (whichever is not drafted). And to fill the last "definite need" Denver will either sign a free agent or use a first day pick. Assuming they sign a free agent, Denver would have filled the "definite" needs while keeping 4 picks for other needs (1st, 2nd, 4th/5th, 7th). With those "extra" picks, nothing short of drafting Matt Ryan would surprise me. But I do think Denver has the flexibility to take the players they want (best player available or biggest improvement over the current roster or whatever) on the first day knowing that they should be able to fill their remaining needs later in the draft.

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Looks Good for now	Still on the Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey			Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell		Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	10	8 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez Darrell Jackson Sammie Parker	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd	Marquay McDaniel	Cliff Russell
TE	6	6	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	10	6 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson		Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Josh Mallard	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck	Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid	Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquay McDaniel Hamza Abdullah		Rod Rogers Marviel Underwood	Steve Cargile Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	2	2 of 3	Sam Palescu	Danny Baugher
K	2	1	1 of 2	Matt Prater
	75	80	56 of 80	44	12	9	15

Some notes on the chart.
The min column are the minimum values taken from my previous diaries. They add up to 75 of the 80 spots.
(The darker rows in that column are ones I project the Broncos will bring over the min to camp)
The "My #" is the number of "Locks"+"Probables" then my guess for the number brought to camp.
(ie. "3 of 5" means that there are a combination of three players who are locks or probable and the team will bring 5 guys to camp)
Anyone with any doubt went into the "Bubble" column.

Roster Breakdown - Safeties: a closer look

MattR — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 06:18:18 -0000

This started as an idea for a comment in a post HoosierTeacher did last week looking at the Broncos moves during the reloading season (link here). It also dovetails with a post I had done looking at which Broncos will make it to training camp. (link here) In that post, I theorized that only 6 of the 8 safeties currently on the roster will make it to training camp.

The top four are pretty obvious - John Lynch, Hamza Abdullah, Marlon McCree and Marquand Manuel. The other four on the roster are Steve Cargile, Roderick Rogers, Marviel Underwood and Vickiel Vaughn. It seems the conventional wisdom is that Cargile pretty much has a spot locked up, but I don't think that is the case. Here's why.

I agree with HoosierTeacher that Denver looks better at safety than last year. I also agree that this is a short term fix. Lynch is most likely done after this year. Both Abdullah and McCree are scheduled to be free agents although either of them could be resigned during the season. But for 2008, the top four look pretty solid.

With that in mind, I think that Denver is going to be looking towards 2009 with any other safeties they keep on their roster. While there may be room for a fifth safety on the 53 man roster and even a sixth one on the practice squad, there is generally room for only 4 safeties on the 45 man active roster on game days. Right now if they can stay healthy (a huge assumption I know) the top 4 listed above should have those spots locked up.

As a result I do not see a lot of room for a ST contributor like Cargile to be active on game day. If he is going to earn a spot on the roster (and even to training camp) it will have to be based on his play as a safety. It is very possible that he has progressed enough to get that spot, but if Denver does not think that he will ever be a player they can use on defense they may decide to cut ties now. (I do not mean to diminish the value of special teams. I did watch the Chicago game last year :( But I don't think either Cargile, or Paul Smith for that matter, are good enough special teamers to merit a roster spot based solely on ST play.) Based purely on safety play, I rank Cargile as third or fourth of the bottom group.

I would put Rod Rogers at the top of that list. He was undrafted out of Wisconsin last year, but made the practice squad then worked his way up to the active roster for the last couple games. Dominique Foxworth is high on Rogers and Rogers could turn out to be a diamond in the rough like Abdullah is shaping up to be (hopefully). I don't think he is ready to contribute this year, but by 2009 he may be improved enough to deserve playing time.

Next on the list is Marviel Underwood, who was a fourth round pick of GB in 2005 and had a decent rookie year before blowing out his knee in the preseason his second year (2006). He was pretty much out of football last year with short stints in GB and then Denver. Denver cut him when they promoted Rod Rogers to the active roster, but resigned Underwood once the season ended. It is said that a player is fully back from knee surgery in his second year. If Underwood is recovered, he is a solid safety prospect and could compete for a starting job in 2009.

Last up is Vickiel Vaughn who was the second to last pick of the 2006 draft and spent the season on IR with the 49ers before they cut him at the end of camp last year. I really don't know much about him and have a feeling he will be cut before training camp starts. My uneducated guess would put him neck and neck with Cargile as an NFL safety.

Summing up, if Denver does not add a safety during the draft and if they only bring 6 safeties to camp, here is how I think things will work themselves out. Lynch, McCree, Manuel and Abdullah are coming to camp. Rod Rogers is pretty close to a lock. Underwood will be given a chance in mini-camps and other team activities to show that he is fully healthy. If he can show that, he gets the sixth training camp invitation. If not, it will probably go to Cargile over Vaughn. In fact, I would say that Vaughn could be cut in the next couple weeks as Denver tweaks its roster with vets and signs college free agents after the draft. But the end result is that I see Cargile's future with the Broncos being far from secure.

Roster breakdown entering camp (part 2)

MattR — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 20:39:18 -0000

I was gonna wait a bit and add some notes to each position, but I think it fits in well with what Jon Tollerud has been doing so I don't want to wait. Below is a look at the current Broncos roster. Denver is currently at the 80 man limit so every draft pick and free agent signing has to have a corresponding cut/trade.

Some notes on the chart.
The "min" column has the minimum values taken from my previous diaries. They add up to 75 of the 80 spots. (The darker rows in that column are ones I project the Broncos will bring over the min to camp)

The "My #" is the number of "Locks"+"Probables" then my guess for the number brought to camp. (ie. "3 of 5" means that there are a combination of three players who are locks or probable and the team will bring 5 guys to camp)

Anyone with any doubt went into the "Bubble" column.

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey		Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell	Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	9	7 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd Marquay McDaniel	Derrick Hamilton Cliff Russell
TE	6	7	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce Chad Upshaw
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	11	7 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson Josh Mallard	Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Antwon Burton	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquand Manuel	Hamza Abdullah	Rod Rogers Steve Cargile Marviel Underwood Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	1	1 of 2	Sam Palescu
K	2	1	1 of 3	Matt Prater
	75	80	55 of 80	41	14	25

I have 25 players listed as on the bubble. Looking at the list of player's there are no inspiring names that jump out off the page, but that does not make these players insignificant. These guys could be this year's Selvin Young and Glenn Martinez or they could be Jacob Rogers and Troy Fleming.

One other note as we look at the bottom of the roster. In general, the coaches have the advantage over the casual fan when it comes to evaluating players since they have access to extra and more comprehensive film as well as actual practice time. I don't know that I have ever seen any of the 25 bubble guys on my TV so it is virtually impossible for the fans to see what the coaches do.

Denver has 9 draft choices and should sign one or two veteran free agents plus 3 or 4 college free agents for a total of 14. Each addition requires a cut. I will talk about this more in a future diary, but it is something to keep in mind as we create our mock drafts over the next couple weeks. For a quick taste of what I mean, consider the QB position. With Patrick Ramsey becoming a free agent after this year, Denver could conceviably draft a prospect who can develop into a backup. However, because of roster restrictions, adding a QB means cutting Hackney or Finnerty. Not a great loss, but at the same time is some 6th or 7th round QB a better prospect than either of them?

I'd kinda like to postpone questions like that for the moment and focus on the chart itself. I'd like to get some feedback on both the numbers and how I have classified the players. Thoughts? Suggestions for changes?

[editor's note, by MattR] Here is a link to part one

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey		Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell	Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	9	7 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd Marquay McDaniel	Derrick Hamilton Cliff Russell
TE	6	7	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce Chad Upshaw
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	11	7 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson Josh Mallard	Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Antwon Burton	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquand Manuel	Hamza Abdullah	Rod Rogers Steve Cargile Marviel Underwood Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	1	1 of 2	Sam Palescu
K	2	1	1 of 3	Matt Prater
	75	80	55 of 80	41	14	25

Roster size/breakdown in training camp

MattR — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 23:37:11 -0000

One of the recent rule proposals that was defeated was to increase the maximum number of players from 80 to 86 for the start of training camp. The reason this rule was proposed is that teams used to get roster exemptions for players in NFL Europe. This allowed them to bring in an extra 5-8 players (I am guessing on that number) for the start of training camp. Now that NFL Europe is defunct, the coaches did not want to lose those extra players. Hence the rule proposal.

Before I get into what this means for the Broncos, I started by thinking of the minimum number of players the team would want to have in training camp. This is based partially on the talent at each position, but more on what is actually needed to run the drills in camp. (For example, Denver always brings a second kicker in to camp to split duties with Elam) My general rule of thumb was that the team would want to be at least 3 deep at each position.

Here are the numbers I came up with, but they really are guesses and I would love some feedback.

4 QB's, 6 RB's (including FB), 8 WR's, 6 TE (including Leach), 13 OL.
7 DE's, 7 DT's, 8 LB's, 6 CB's, 6 S's, 3 K's, 2 P's.
That is a total of 76 of the 80 roster spots accounted for.

These numbers seem reasonable? How would you tweak them?

Here are the numbers I came up with, but they really are guesses and I would love some feedback.

4 QB's, 6 RB's (including FB), 8 WR's, 6 TE (including Leach), 13 OL.
7 DE's, 7 DT's, 8 LB's, 6 CB's, 6 S's, 3 K's, 2 P's.
That is a total of 76 of the 80 roster spots accounted for.

These numbers seem reasonable? How would you tweak them?

A good Broncos trivia question

MattR — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 22:43:01 -0000

Just asked on the NFL Network before they profile the Broncos in their Path to the Draft.

In the famous QB class of 1983, what quarterback did Denver draft?

Took me a second to figure it out, but I got it.

To fill the diary, they list our draft needs as DT, OT, WR then RB and K. They are asking Dave Logan his opinion

Just asked on the NFL Network before they profile the Broncos in their Path to the Draft.

In the famous QB class of 1983, what quarterback did Denver draft?

Took me a second to figure it out, but I got it.

To fill the diary, they list our draft needs as DT, OT, WR then RB and K. They are asking Dave Logan his opinion

Free Agent Bloodbath Ahead?

MattR — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 16:24:45 -0000

As most of you know, I am a bit of a salary cap junkie. As I was doing my latest batch of updates, I was noticing which players contracts ended after 2008 and 2009. It is difficult to look too far ahead due to potential labor issues making 2010 both an uncapped year, and potentially the last year before a lockout by the owners. This would change how much teams are willing and able to spend on free agents over the next couple of years. But it seems to me that Denver has quite a few "core" players whose contracts will be up in the next couple years.

2008 will hit the defense a bit harder than the offense. There are a decent number of free agents, but only one is a crucial starters who are irreplaceable. And that player is Tom Nalen. Offensively, other free agents will be backups like Mike Bell, Andre Hall, Chad Mustard and Patrick Ramsey. Also Erik Pears becomes a RFA. On defense, pretty much the entire secondary will be in flux. The only decent players under contract for 2009 are Champ, Dre and Manuel Marquand. We all assume Lynch will retire, but we will still have a decent secondary of free agents - Paymah and Foxworth, Abdullah and McCree. This looks like the crucial test for next offseason (assuming no trades or extensions are given during the year)

It is 2009 that is gonna be ugly, especially on the offensive side of the board. Here is a partial list: B Marshall, G Martinez, T Scheffler, N Jackson, B Hamilton, M Holland, C Kuper, Dumervil, DJ Williams, J Winborn and Leach. Assuming Nalen does not return after 2008, that would be our starting center and both guards who would be FA as well as most of Cutler's key receiving weapons. The team seems better prepared to handle the defensive losses. I would hate to lose DJ, but if Boss and Niko work out DJ could be expendable. Same thing for Elvis. If Moss and Crowder develop into solid starters, the loss of a pass rush specialist won't be as bad.

Probably the most worrisome part of 2009 is that it is a lot of young guys coming off their rookie contracts who will be looking to get sizeable increases - Marshall, DJ, Dumervil, Scheffler, and even Kuper and potentially Glenn Martinez if he hangs around.

I don't have much to add or any conclusions to reach. Just some info that I would throw out there as we look at what Denver did to reload this year and what options are still available. Does this make Denver more interested in a player like Dewayne Robertson who will cost a lot in 2008 and 2009 but who will come off the books afterwards and would free up cap space to resign other players? How much will it affect their draft strategy? Will they pick a CB in the later rounds because they know they can't keep both Foxworth and Paymah?