SB Nation User Blog: MattS

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

MattS — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:20:42 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Braves: June 30-July 2

MattS — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:06:33 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Are the Phillies back on track? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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The Phillies (39-34) head down to Atlanta this week to play a three game set against the Atlanta Braves (35-40). The Phillies took two of three from the Jays to salvage what was a disappointing performance in interleague play, and now have a 2.5-game lead over the Marlins, a 3-game lead over the Mets, a 5-game lead over the Braves, and probably a 163-game lead over the Nationals. The Braves need this series to go very well for them, and they will send out their top three pitchers against the Phils. Blanton and Hamels have been the top two Phils pitchers thus far and they will go Tuesday and Wednesday. Happ has been moved into Thursday's start. I originally had done profiles for Carrasco and Carpenter, two potential starters for Thursday, but Happ has been confirmed as Thursday's starter. I left them in anyway-- enjoy.

MATCHUPS:
Tuesday, 7:00-- Blanton (R) vs. Lowe (R)
Wednesday, 7:00-- Hamels (L) vs. Jurrjens (R)
Thursday, 7:00-- Happ (L) vs. Vazquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the player, their splits, and the match-ups.

And don't forget to vote for me in Baseball Prospectus Idol-- voting closes at 11pm today (Tuesday)!

BRAVES

LINE UP

1) CF Nate McLouth (L): .259/.340/.463

proj: .270/.345/.460
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .292 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: patient, decent eye, good contact
r/l: .814 vs .748 ops; 1.6 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .826 vs .766 ops; 1.6 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: improves against starter as game goes on

2) SS Yunel Escobar (R): .292/.348/.432

proj: .290/.360/.410
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 56%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected high (around .320) which makes sense given low infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: very good eye, reasonably patient, good contact
r/l: .811/.757 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
h/a: .826/.760 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around
other: none

3) 3B Chipper Jones (S): .290/.407/.471

proj: .310/.420/.560
bb: 14%
k: 15.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 6% (about 4% from 2006-2008 though; however, 14% in 2009)
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .340 which might even be low, given my BABIP projection system. he rarely pops out (though he has this year) and spreads ball around well. he hits his flyballs very far leading to higher flyball BABIP. he also does very well on line drives which is not surprising given his power and contact mix.
s/c/z: excellent eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .972/.909 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .987/.924 ops; 0.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter both ways but plenty of spreading the ball around for a power hitter
other: none

4) C Brian McCann (L): .323/.412/.538

proj: .295/.365/.505
bb: 9%
k: 13%
gb: 38%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected a little above average which is pretty reasonable given his power. he should do well on line drives, hitting the ball deep into gaps. he pops out a decent amount and doesn't spread the ball around amazingly, so he shouldn't be all that hot on groundballs or flyballs, but he should be above average on babip.
s/c/z: okay contact skill. his eye is obvious a major question mark since he's just coming off the disabled list to solve the problem with his eyes. historically, he has had an above average eye but not particularly patient. this year he started off the year patient with a poor eye.
r/l: .886 vs .784 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .852 vs .860 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; poor power on road but better average at home
p/o: pretty solid pull hitter; typical for a power hitter
other: he should be coming off the disabled list today, but it remains to be seen what effect his new glasses and eye surgery will have. hopefully something that takes three days to adjust to, and then i wish him well. mccann is the kind of player that i would love if he wasn't on a division rival's team-- solid eye and good power, smart player.

5) LF Garret Anderson (L): .280/.308/.387

proj: .280/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 41%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: free swinger with previously decent but now eroding eye; average contact skill
r/l: .813/.751 ops; 2.2 vs 5.1 k/bb
h/a: .792/.797 ops; 2.8 k/bb both ways
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

6) 1B Casey Kotchman (L): .270/.328/.377

proj: .280/.350/.440
bb: 9%
k: 10%
gb: 52%
iff: 14%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected below average (.280s); makes sense since he pops up a lot, is slow, and doesn't spread ball around field well
s/c/z: okay eye, not very patient, good contact skill
r/l: .751/.745 ops; 1.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .763/.737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: very good against finesse pitchers

7) Jeff Francoeur (R): .246/.279/.346

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected slightly above average but given infield fly rate, that might be optimistic; he does spread ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits
s/c/z: major free swinger without a good eye-- has improved high this year but still swings at way too many pitches out of the strike zone, slightly above average contact skill
r/l: .714/.824 ops; 4.3 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .793/.700 ops; 3.2 vs 4.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not that much for a power hitter
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers

8) 2B Kelly Johnson (L): .218/.289/.367

projection average (proj): .280/.360/.450
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 39%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 8%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 6%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected high (.330ish), has done well on flyballs despite high infield fly rate. probably explains some of poor season thus far.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): pretty good eye and pretty patient, average contact skill
righty/lefty (r/l): .790/.794 ops; 1.6 vs 2.2 k/bb (.363 BABIP vs lefties unsustainable)
home/away (h/a): .802/.781 ops; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

BENCH

C David Ross (R): .293/.396/.573

proj: .220/.320/.400
bb: 12%
k: 28%
gb: 34%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: below average for sure-- makes poor/weak contact and pops up a lot. has decent power, but still not great.
s/c/z: very good eye; not especially patient; poor contact skill
r/l: .740 vs .781 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .724 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

UI Martin Prado (R): .280/.345/.432

proj: .300/.355/.410
bb: 8%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 12%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high, but that's based on historical success on groundballs and flyballs that doesn't seem realistic given his lack of significant power
s/c/z: patient, pretty good eye, very good contact
r/l: .838 vs .770; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .833; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pretty clear opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Diory Hernandez (R): .140/.186/.364

proj: .265/.305/.375
bb: 4.5%
k: 16%
gb: 53% in minors
iff: 15% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around average
s/c/z: early indications are that he's impatience without a very good eye and only mediocre contact skill
r/l: pretty even in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Gregor Blanco (L): .174/.240/.174

proj: .265/.365/.350
bb: 13%
k: 21%
gb: 50%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325; i have him at .295
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, very patient
r/l: .659 vs .676 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .624 vs .705 ops; 1.5 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads balll around well
other: might be better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Diaz (R): .272/.352/.424

proj: .295/.335/.440
bb: 4%
k: 19%
gb: 49%
iff: 4%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected very high which is actually probably reasonable given speed, low pop up rate, ability to spread the ball around, and his decent power. historically it's probably been higher than it should so perhaps the projected around .340-.350 are too high but .330 seems reasonable.
s/c/z: horrible eye and major free swinger without quite average contact skill. still thrown a lot of strikes but that has gone this year as his stats have too.
r/l: .714 vs .857 ops; 5.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .788 ops; 4.0 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but pretty much spreads ball around well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UI Omar Infante (R): .349/.389/.430

proj: .280/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected pretty high but that might be overstating due to speed since he does pop up a lot and doesn't have great power (so he doesn't hit the ball that hard or far). historically average to high babip probably lucky.
s/c/z: okay eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .694 vs .707 ops; 2.8 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .650 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: 1B/OF Greg Norton (S): .098/.275/.146

proj: .260/.355/.415
bb: 12.5%
k: 23%
gb: 40%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected average which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, reasonably patient, slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .789 vs .648 ops; 1.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .759 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter, slightly moreso as lefty
other: none

SENT TO AAA: CF Jordan Schafer (L): .204/.313/.287

proj: .240/.310/.400
bb: 8%
k: 25% (but 43% thus far in 2009)
gb: 44%
iff: 12% (2 of 16 in 2009)
ifh: 10% (2 in 20 GB in 2009)
babip: has been very high but probably not much reason for that; pops up a lot and doesn't spread ball around well
s/c/z: swings a lot with terrible contact skill thus far
r/l: .729 vs .743 thus far in 2009 but that's only with his high BABIP; approximately 1.9 k/bb without much split
h/a: not enough info
p/o: thus far extreme pull hitter
other: none

SENT BACK TO AAA: 1B Barbaro Canizares (R): .235/.235/.294

proj: seemingly unprojected 29 year old
bb: 8% in minors
k: 14% in minors
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: .351 in minors
s/c/z: early indications show meidocre eye with poor contact skill and average patience
r/l: minor league career: .907 vs .802 ops
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Derek Lowe (R): 4.53 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .638 vs .735 ops; 3.4 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .654 vs .719 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/b

Lowe vs Phillies (**excluding postseason 2009**)

Feliz: 5/26, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Ibanez: 2/22, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 7/23, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/19, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/15, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 SF
Utley: 5/17, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K (also homered off him in NLCS 2009)
Dobbs: 0/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Jair Jurrjens (R): 2.93 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .652 vs .744 ops; 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .785 vs .616 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Jurrjens vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 4/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/12, 1 Bb, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 Bb, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Javier Vazquez (R): 3.04 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.61 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9,
gb: 39%
pitches: 53% fb, 23% sl, 13% cb, 11% ch, 0.3% ct
r/l: .730 vs .743 ops; 4.1 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .752 ops; 3.7 vs 3.1 k/bb

Vazquez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/50, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Stairs: 2/24, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Feliz: 4/17, 3 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 7/19, 4 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 9 K
Werth: 2/14, 2 BB, 5 K
Utley: 5/15, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Victorino: 2/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Kenshin Kawakami (R): 4.25 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.20 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.22 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: --
pitches: (in 2009)- 62% fb, 14% cb, 12% ct, 10% sf, 2% ch, 0.6% sl
r/l: .998 vs .891 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb (in 2009)
h/a: .790 vs 1.203 ops; 2.2 vs 0.75 k/bb (in 2009)

Kawakami vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Tommy Hanson (R): 3.13 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.58 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 32% (39% in minors)
pitches: 55% fb, 22% sl, 18% cb, 5% ch
r/l: .912 vs .936 ops; 3.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Hanson: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Jo-Jo Reyes (L): 7.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 50% GB rate

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 66% fb, 11% sl, 15% ch, 8% cb
r/l: .920 vs .642 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .851 vs .877 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Reyes vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 4/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Utley: 5/15, 1 3B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/11, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Bruntlett: 0/3, 1 Bb, 2 K
Coste: 3/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL Mike Gonzalez (L): 2.06 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 12.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 57% fb, 42% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .608 vs .634 ops; 2.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .598 vs .39 ops; 2.5 vs 2.7 k/bb

Gonzalez vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1 BB
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Rafael Soriano (R): 1.30 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 77% fb, 22% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .532 vs .694 ops; 4.3 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .574 ops; 3.1 vs 3.8 k/bb

Soriano vs Phillies:

Dobbs: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Peter Moylan (R): 4.34 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.41 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 62%
pitches: 79% fb, 17% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .578 vs .662 ops; 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .521 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Moylan vs Phillies:

Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 2 BB (2 IBB0, 1 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

Boone Logan (L): 13.50 ERA, 13.5 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 7.56 FIP, 80% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 50% fb, 46% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Logan vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Eric O'Flaherty (L): 3.90 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% fb, 42% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .856 vs .602 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .743 vs .732 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb

O'Flaherty vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kris Medlen (R): 6.12 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb
r/l: .699 vs .667 ops; 1.5 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .607 vs .708 ops; 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Medlen: has not played any Phillies:

Manny Acosta (R): 2.45 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.88 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 64% fb, 20% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .616 vs .737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .636 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Acosta vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Buddy Carlyle (R): 8.84 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 73% fb, 19% ct, 5% ch, 2% cb, 0.2% sl
r/l: .696 vs .942 ops; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .838 ops; 2.25 vs 2.05 k/bb

Carlyle vs Phillies (not updated for third series):

Rollins: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 2/5, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 Bb, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 2 BB (1 iBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Jeff Bennett (R): 3.18 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.59 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.2 ERA, 4.0 BB?9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 74% fb, 21% sl, 3% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Bennett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF

SENT TO AAA: James Parr (R): 5.79 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.56 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 13% ch, 9% cb, 5% sl
r/l: 1.090 vs .782 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb (62 vs 69 PA only)
h/a: not enough info

Parr vs Phillies (not updated for third series):

Howard: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .297/.365/.448

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .299/.430/.547

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.332/.546

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .269/.354/.493

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.294/.594

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.330/.409

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.354/.390

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .129/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .230/.284/.419

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.333/.388

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

C Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.87 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Braves:

Anderson: 11/38, 2 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Kotchman: 7/23, 4 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Escobar: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
McCann: 6/7, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Jones: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 0/2, 1 BB, 2 K
Ross: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.44 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Braves:

Francoeur: 6/33, 0 Bb, 10 K, 1 SF
McCann: 9/24, 5 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Diaz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/17, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Jones: 6/17, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Escobar: 1/13, 1 2B, 5 BB, 3 K
Prado: 3/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kotchman: 4/9, 3 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Anderson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Braves:

Johnson: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
McCann: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 1 BB
Schafer: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

POSSIBLE CALL UP: Carlos Carrasco (R): 4.92 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.50 FIP, 45% GB in AAA

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 44% in minor league career
pitches: fastball/changeup primarily, mixes in a slider I believe
r/l: 2.7 k/bb vs rhp, 1.7 k/bb vs lhp in minor league career
h/a: not enough info

Carrasco: has not faced any Braves

POSSIBLE CALL UP: Andrew Carpenter: 5 ER in 4.1 IP, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 8gb/15bip in majors; AAA numbers-- 2.75 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 HR/9

gb: 40% in minors

pitches: last year in 1 inning of work in MLB, he threw 73% fb, 13% sf, 7% sl, 7% ch

r/l: seems better against righties in minors

h/a: not enough info

Carpenter: has not pitched against any Braves

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.58 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Braves:

Anderson: 34/107, 9 BB, 1 3B, 5 HR, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 8/27, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
McCann: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Jones: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Diaz: 4/12, 1 2B, 3 Bb, 1 K, 1 SF
Escobar: 4/15, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Prado: 6/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Infante: 3/12, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sf
Kotchman: 6/12, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Braves

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.86 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.33 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Braves:

Jones: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Francoeur: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
McCann: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Diaz: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Anderson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Braves:

Francoeur: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Jones: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
McCann: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/4, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Escobar: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Anderson: 1 BB
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 2 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Escobar: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Braves:

Anderson: 3/10, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 0/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Kotchman: 5/8,3 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McCann: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.18 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Braves:

Anderson: 15/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
Jones: 10/31, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
McCann: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Francoeur: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
JohnsOn: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Blanco: 1 BB
Kotchman: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.48 ERA, 10.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.74 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Braves:

Anderson: 5/15, 1 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Jones: 3/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
McCann: 1/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.63 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Braves:

Francoeur: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
McCann: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Braves:

Anderson: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
McCann: 3/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
McLouth: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
JOnes: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Braves:

Francoeur: 5/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
McCann: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McLouth: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1 BB

Phillies at Blue Jays: June 26-28

MattS — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 19:19:43 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Series already underway, and this picture typifies the Phillies' mood. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

Browse more photos »

I didn't get a chance to post this on time, thanks in part to BP Idol's "Deadline Week", but I did do all the work and this should be a good reference point for Saturday and Sunday afternoons' games.

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:07-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Romero (L)

Saturday, 1:07-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Mills (L)

Sunday, 1:07-- Jamie Moyre (L) vs. Brian Tallet (L)

After the split, I preview all the players, their splits, and the matchups

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .294/.393/.432

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .306/.346/.497

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .267/.322/.432

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .255/.310/.404

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .307/.386/.550

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .329/.304/.477

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .279/.400/.525

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .263/.300/.423

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .257/.391/.354

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .263/.263/.368

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .217/.217/.217

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .246/.318/.388

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Russ Adams (L): .333/.385/.333

proj: .240/.305/.370
bb: 8%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .275
s/c/z: patient with good eye, good contact. sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .723 vs .521 ops; 1.4 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .748 vs .631 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.59 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.55 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K

Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Mills (L): 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 4gb/14bip

proj avg: 5.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 29% so far
pitches: 41% fb, 33% ch, 26% cb
r/l: better vs RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Mills vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Werth: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Brian Tallet (L): 4.36 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Brett Cecil (L): 5.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.43 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 53% so far
pitches: 63% fb, 21% sl, 12% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.064 vs .765 ops; 1.9 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Cecil: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Scott Richmond (R): 3.68 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABED LIST: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

Jason Frasor (R): 2.10 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.71 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.14 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 5.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.94 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 4.09 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 65% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 1.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.84 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 1 BB

Mayberry: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Jeremy Accardo (R): 3 IP,1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 2gb/6bip

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 15% sf. 6% ct
r/l: .741 vs .552 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .639 ops; 2.6 vs 2.1 k/bb

Accardo vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WErth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Mayberry: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.254/.328

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.366/.456

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.430/.555

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .254/.329/.551

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .257/.344/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .289/.332/.398

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

7) LF John Mayberry (R): .320/.346/.760

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .248/.359/.391

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .242/.337/.396

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .145/.234/.218

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .233/.288/.425

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .288/.431/.500
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Millar: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Scutaro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Barajas: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Hill: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rios: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.57 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 14/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 14/32, 1 2B, 3 HR, BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 10/22, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 8/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 3/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 8/25, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Adams: 3/14, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K

Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 4/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.00 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.97 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Wells: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2 BB
Lind: 1 BB

McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Overbay: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 5.40 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.76 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Scutaro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1 BB

Overbay: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/13, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.22 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 8/20, 3 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Adams:1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.72 ERA, 10.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.68 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Adams: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.46 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rolen: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Adams: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Barajas: 1/1,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lind: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1/3,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lind: 2 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

Phillies at Rays: June 23-25

MattS — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:24:44 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

The Phillies hope their struggles do not continue against the Rays this week. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

Browse more photos »

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-31) and the Tampa Bay Rays (37-34) face off this week in a rematch of the 2008 World Series. Both teams return 18 of their 25-man playoff rosters, though the Rays return one of the Champions in the person of Pat Burrell. Since we last saw Pat the Bat, he has not exactly lit the American League on fire. He has struggled through injuries and a major power outage which has left him with an anemic .296 SLG and only a single homerun. Burrell was supposed to be the right-handed power threat that was going to fill in the Rays' weakness that may have cost them the title. The lack of major right-handed power left the Rays somewhat vulnerable to Phillies lefties, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, who helped the Phillies win three of their four World Series victories.

The Phillies enter Tuesday's action just barely holding on to a 1.5 game lead in the NL East, after dropping six in a row and eight of nine games on an ugly homestand. The Phillies are without Raul Ibanez, Brett Myers, Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, Brad Lidge for at least some of the some the series, and possibly Ryan Howard who is overcoming acute sinusitis. The Rays enter the series barely over .500 and six full games behind the Red Sox and in fourth place in the AL East.

Neither team enters into the series in great shape. When Jimmy Rollins stepped into the batters box last October against Scott Kazmir to ignite last year's World Series, both men were on top of the world. Kazmir had overcome arm troubles by focusing on his changeup and Rollins was coming off a strong season and a leadoff homerun in each of the clinching games in the Phillies' earlier playoff series. Now, Kazmir has been on the disabled list for over a month with a strained oblique and Rollins is hitting just .217.

The Phillies will send Jamie Moyer to the mound against the Rays on Tuesday night. Moyer has struggled this season, but has managed to recover a bit in a recent starts. The Rays counter with David Price, who the Phillies last saw in the bullpen last fall. Price has gotten off to a pretty good start this year in 26 innings though he has been very wild. The lefty will be tough on the Phillies, and they'll need to be patient and draw walks to succeed.

On Wednesday, Joe Blanton will take another shot at the Rays, though in an AL park, he will not have the opportunity to do so using his mighty bat. The Rays counter with Matt Garza who has been effective this season.

Thursday night, the Phillies send rookie lefty Antonio Bastardo to the mound. He has been up and down in a few starts this year. The Rays counter with Andy Sonnanstine. Sonnanstine has been pretty hittable this year, though has suffered some bad luck as well, putting up a very high 6.60 ERA thanks to a high BABIP and HR/FB rate. Still, the right-hander should be very hittable.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:08-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs. David Price (L)
Wednesday, 7:08-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Matt Garza (R)
Thursday, 7:08-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and the matchups.

RAYS

LINE UP

1) CF B.J. Upton (R): .240/.322/.359

projection average (proj): .275/.380/.430
projected BB/PA (bb): 13%
projected K/AB (k): 26%
career gb% (gb): 49%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 6%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 9%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .350; i have him at .319
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, patient, slightly below average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .748 vs .816 ops; 2.3 vs 1.5 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .761 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around very well
anything else (other): gets much better against a starter as game goeson

2) LF Carl Crawford (L): .307/.367/.435

proj: .290/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 10%
babip: i have him at .327 which is similar to what other systems say
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, slightly above average contact
r/l: .796 vs .701 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .794 vs .745 ops; 2.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

3) 3B Evan Longoria (R): .309/.392/.594

proj: .275/.345/.490
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. i have him at .302.
s/c/z: not a great eye, not impatient, slightly below average contact
r/l: .908 vs .905 ops; 2.6 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .862 vs .952 ops; 2.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitching

4) 1B Carlos Pena (L): .235/.371/.567

proj: .255/.370/.500
bb: 15%
k: 30%
gb: 36%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .283
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient, pretty poor contact
r/l: .903 vs .751 ops; 1.6 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .882 vs .831 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: significant pull hitter
other: none

5) 2B Ben Zobrist (S): .293/.400/.644

proj: .250/.335/.410
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7.5%
babip: projected around .285
s/c/z: good eye, very patient, above average contact
r/l: .755 vs .786 ops; 1.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .739 vs .786 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter from both sides
other: none

6) DH Pat Burrell (R): .240/.351/.296

proj: .245/.370/.465
bb: 17%
k: 26%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .285; i have him at .275
s/c/z: good eye (but less than before), very patient, average contact skill for last few years
r/l: .815 vs .942 ops; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .847 vs .847 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

7) SS Jason Bartlett (R): .373/.414/.589

proj: .275/.335/.370
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .320, but i have him at .302
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, pretty good contact
r/l: .679 vs .860 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .747 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

8) RF Gabe Gross (L): .266/.372/.419

proj: .255/.345/.425
bb: 12%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: i have him at .304 which is where most systems have him
s/c/z: good eye, patient, average contact
r/l: .779 vs .587 ops; 1.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .831 vs .685 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: better against starter as game goes on

9) C Dioner Navarro (S): .218/.242/.322

proj: .263/.335/.380
bb: 9%
k: 15%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .278
s/c/z: average patience, good eye, average contact
r/l: .658 vs .766 ops; 2.0 vs 1.25 k/bb
h/a: .695 vs .674 ops; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Michel Hernandez (R): .270/.292/.349

proj: .250/.305/.335
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 53% in minors
iff: 14% in mionrs
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .280
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, okay contact
r/l: .857/.643 ops split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Willy Aybar (S): .273/.379/.445

proj: .265/.340/.405
bb: 9.5%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .290; i have him at .285
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, good contact
r/l: .764 vs .792 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .798 vs .760 ops; 1.0 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty too but not as much
other: none

IF Joe Dillon (R): .348/.444/.478

proj: .250/.330/.400
bb: 10%
k: 19%
gb: 41%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: patient without a good eye, pretty good contact
r/l: in mionrs, better eye vs lefties, but hits better vs righties
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Gabe Kapler (R): .237/.318/.484

proj: .275/.325/.420
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, pretty good contact
r/l: .717 vs .827 ops; 1.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .695 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: David Price (L): 3.46 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.75 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% sl, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: little better against lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Price vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Matt Garza (R): 3.83 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.48 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 10% cb, 7% ch
r/l: .711 vs .725 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .693 vs .745 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Garza vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/10, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Andy Sonnanstine (R): 6.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 37% fb, 25% ct, 21% sl, 11% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .840 vs .767 ops; 3.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .795 vs .809 ops; 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb

Sonnanstine vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Jeff Niemann (R): 4.23 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 71% fb, 14% sl, 10% cb, 3% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .817 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .797 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Niemann: has not played any Phillies

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: James Shields (R): 3.36 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 42% fb, 24% ch, 17% cb, 16% ct, 1% sl
r/l: .737 vs .726 ops; 4.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .682 vs .788 ops; 4.1 vs 3.4 k/bb

Shields vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 0/11, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Dan Wheeler (R): 4.24 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 6% cb, 3% sf
r/l: .645 vs .839 ops; 3.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .744 vs .714 ops; 3.0 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wheeler vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Grant Balfour (R): 5.01 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 83% fb, 11% sl, 5% cb, 1% ch, 0.2% ct
r/l: .677 vs .677 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .716 ops; 2.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Balfour vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sf
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB (IBB)

J.P. Howell (L): 1.82 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.31 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 48% fb, 36% cb, 16% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .736 vs .698 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .709 vs .739 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Howell vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 2/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Nelson (R): 4.70 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 69% fb, 29% ch, 2% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .774 vs .686 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .710 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb

Nelson vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cotse: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Randy Choate (L): 1.93 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.06 FIP, 79% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 84% fb, 16% sl
r/l: .734 vs .665 ops; 0.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .735 ops; 1.8 vs 1.3 k/bb

Choate vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Lance Cormier (R): 2.57 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 47% ct, 30% cb, 18% fb, 4% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .858 vs .818 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .904 vs .787 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Cormier vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Utley: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Winston Abreu (R): 9.00 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.0 FIP, 0% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 41% in minor leagues, 30% in brief major league experience
pitches: 50% fb, 45% sl, 5% ch
r/l: much better vs rhb in minors; wild against lefties
h/a: not enough info

Abreu vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Jason Isringhausen (R): 2.25 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ct, 11% cb, 3% sl
r/l: .649 vs .693 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .644 vs .701 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb

Isringhausen vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Utley: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.261/.338

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .304/.365/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.428/.547

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.332/.558

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) LF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.343/.456

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .215/.278/.431

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .294/.339/.409

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .260/.377/.415

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .244/.343/.407

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .157/.250/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Matt Stairs (L): .277/.424/.489

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

OF John Mayberry (R): .300/.300/.700

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.35 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.77 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Rays:

Kapler: 6/26, 2 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Pena: 10/22, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 10/21, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Upton: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.04 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Rays:

Crawford: 9/25, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Upton: 3/14, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Pena: 4/9, 1 2B, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Burrell: 1/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Navarro: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Zobrist: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.21 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.96 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Rays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Rays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Rays:

Kapler: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dillon: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Shields: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 1 BB
Upton: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Navarro: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.12 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Rays:

Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Isringhausen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pena: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.26 ERA, 6.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Rays:

Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kapler: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.47 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Rays:

Pena: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Upton: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.90 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Rays:

Burrell: 2/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 8 K
Crawford: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), o K
Pena: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Gross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Rays:

Pena: 2/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1 BB
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 4.15 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.75 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not played any Rays

DISABLED LIST (COULD RETURN WED OR THU): Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/3, 2 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Rays:

Gross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Crawford: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 1 SF
Upton: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Rays:

Aybar: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Cormier: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs Orioles: June 19-21

MattS — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:08:46 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Cole Hamels will pitch Sunday for the Phillies. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Philadelphia Phillies (36-28) still maintain a three-game lead over the Mets thanks to this weekend's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles (29-37), who took two out of three from the Mets. The Phillies have three games this weekend against the O's, who have a lot of promising young stars, but still struggle to compete in a tough division. The Orioles really do fall short with their pitching, although their young hitters are dangerous. In addition to reliable veterans Brain Roberts, and Aubrey Huff, the Orioles have Nick Markakis, who is quietly turning into one of the better hitters in the American League, Adam Jones, the steal of the Erik Bedard trade who his mashing this year, and the Orioles very own Messiah to combat ours, Matt Wieters. Wieters finally hit his first homerun this week against the Mets, though reports are that if he does not get the day off Sunday against Cole Hamels, the planet might explode. Either that or at least one of the websites linked in the previous sentence will be at least an exaggeration.

The Phillies send Antonio Bastardo out Friday night, looking to bounce back after his first poor start of the season. Bastardo allowed five runs in the first inning before a rain delay ended his night against the Red Sox. The Orioles reply with Rich Hill, who has been the victim of control problems, and if it were not for some luck on flyballs landing on the correct side of the fence, Hill's ERA would be in worse shape. Hill does not have a huge split , being mostly a fastball/curveball pitcher, so the Phillies should not have too much trouble with him.

The Orioles will send out RHP Brad Bergeson in Saturday night's game. Bergeson is a contact pitcher who gets a good number of groundballs. Taking good swings against him will be the key. The Phillies send J.A. Happ to the mound against him. Happ looked a little better than what he is after initially joining the rotation, though his last two starts have left something to be desired.

The Orioles send RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the mound on Sunday afternoon. Guthrie has had some bad luck this year, but is pretty much an average pitcher overall, in terms of control, command, and groundball tendencies. The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels to the mound on Sunday. American League teams have done their best with him this year by fouling off pitches and building up his pitch counts, and getting a shot against the bullpen. He'll try to go deeper into Sunday's game than he has in recent starts.

MATCHUPS

Friday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Saturday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Bergeson (R)

Sunday, 1:35-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

ORIOLES

LINE UP

1) 2B Brian Roberts (S): .287/.352/.445

projection average (proj): .285/.365/.425
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 16%
career gb% (gb): 38%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 7%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i have him .318
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, good patience, good contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .802 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .759 vs .786 ops; 1.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter from both sides
anything else (other): better against groundball pitchers

2) RF Nick Markakis (L): .293/.356/.464

proj: .300/.380/.485
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 46%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .335; i have him at .329.
s/c/z: okay eye, good patience, above average contact
r/l: .888 vs .753 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .867 vs .827 ops; 1.6 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty evenly
other: much better against finesse pitcher

3) CF Adam Jones (R): .312/.368/.540

proj: .275/.325/.445
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 46%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325, but i have him at .306; my system is probably conservative since there isn't much data on him
s/c/z: impatient, bad eye, below average contact
r/l: .768 vs .729 ops; 6.1 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .760 vs .754 ops; 5.6 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

4) 1B Aubrey Huff (L): .272/.335/.451

proj: .280/.345/.470
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .295; i have him around .299.
s/c/z: decent eye, decent contact
r/l: .856 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .839 vs .808 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B Melvin Mora (R): .277/.333/.339

proj: .270/.330/.425
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .298 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: some patience and okay eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .786 vs .816 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .782 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) DH Luke Scott (L): .306/.389/.594

proj: .260/.345/.480
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: most systems have him around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: okay eye but impatient, mediocre contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .874 vs .850 ops; 1.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .896 vs .841 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

7) C Matt Wieters (S): .259/.298/.407

proj: .295/.365/.485
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 47% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, below average contact
r/l: seems pretty good both ways in minors, but better babip vs lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

8) LF Nolan Riemold (R): .283/.372/.525

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 51%
iff: 20%
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: somewhat patient, average contact, pretty good eye
r/l: .870 vs 1.010 in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

9) SS Robert Andino (R): .252/.292/.313

proj: .240/.295/.360
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 54%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected all over the place, about .300 overall
s/c/z: not a great eye, not particularly patient, below average contact
r/l: .533 vs .594 ops; 3.4 vs 8.5 k/bb
h/a: .614 vs .488 ops; 4.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Greg Zaun (S): .209/.315/.295

proj: .250/.340/.390
bb: 12%
k: 16%
gb: 43%
iff: 14%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: patient with a good eye, above average contact
r/l: .722 vs .733 ops; 1.2 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .734 vs .715 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty
other: none

OF Felix Pie (L): .202/.279/.319

proj: .260/.315/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: somewhat patient without a great eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .675 vs .278 ops; 3.2 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .610 ops; 2.8 vs 3.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DH Ty Wigginton (R): .241/.280/.380

proj: .270/.335/.470
bb: 7.5%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: i project him at .304, which is about where other systems have him
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, decent contact
r/l: .749 vs .858 ops; 3.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .809 vs .751 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

IF Oscar Salazar (R): .300/.300/.300

proj: .270/.330/.445
bb: 7%
k: 16%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 11%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: good eye, patient, slightly above average contact
r/l: .959 vs .596 ops; 1.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Rich Hill (L): 5.81 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.09 FIP, 33%

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .728 vs .651; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .713; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb

Hill vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/14, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Bergesen (R): 3.79 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 3.7 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 67% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 0.4% cb
r/l: .775 vs .736 ops; 4.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .777 vs .726 ops; 4.4 vs 0.8 k/bb

Bergesen: has not played any Phillies

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Jeremy Guthrie (R): 5.42 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 11% ch, 6% cb
r/l: .733 vs .761 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .696 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb

Guthrie vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (2 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

NOT FACING US: Koji Uehara (R): 4.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 30%
pitches: 57% fb, 32% sf, 6% ct, 3% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .715 vs .760 ops; 2.6 vs 5.0 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Uehara: has not faced any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Jason Berken (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.35 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% ch, 14% sl, 9% cb
r/l: slightly better at avoiding contact against rhb but wilder too
h/a: not enough info

Berken: has not played any Phillies:

BULLPEN

CL George Sherrill (L): 2.45 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .773 vs .506 ops; 1.1 vs 4.7 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .627 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Sherrill vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jim Johnson (R): 2.87 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.64 FIp, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 79% fb, 12% cb, 9% ch
r/l: .662 vs .612 ops; 2.1 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .663 vs .615 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Johnson vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Danys Baez (R): 3.03 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 61% GB, 4.22 FIP

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 60% fb, 31% sf, 8% cb, 1% ct, 0.2% sl
r/l: .648 vs .759 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .701 vs .705 ops; 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb

Baez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Alberto Castillo (L): 3.86 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.07 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 58% fb, 36% sl, 6% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .723 vs .762 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .564 vs .908 ops; 2.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Castillo vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Mark Hendrickson (L): 5.61 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 60% fb, 12% ch, 23% cb, 4% ct
r/l: .826 vs .692 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .811 vs .777 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Hendrickson vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/18, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 3/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Bass (R): 3.92 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.29 FIP, 66% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 66% fb, 18% sl, 11% cb, 5% ch, 0.1% sf
r/l: .862 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .859 ops; 1.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Bass vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Matt Albers (R): 3.86 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% cb, 2% ch
r/l: .812 vs .763 ops; 1.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .721 vs .860 ops; 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb

Albers vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB (IBB)
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .225/.263/.350

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.351/.451

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .308/.441/.567

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.331/.552

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.350/.466

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .186/.258/.373

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.354/.429

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .270/.391/.435

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.354/.422

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .163/.259/.245

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Matt Stairs (L): .282/.451/.538

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

OF John Mayberry (R): .286/.286/.786

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

Chan Ho Park (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Orioles:

Huff: 4/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 4/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Mora: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Roberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Orioles:

Roberts: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Mora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Orioles:

Mora: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
ROberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Orioles:

Wigginton: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Huff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1 BB
Roberts: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 2/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Roberts: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1 BB
Mora: 1 BB

Phillies vs. Blue Jays: June 16-18

MattS — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:04:40 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Howard and Ibanez have given Phillies fans a lot of reasons to high five. Ibanez is tied for first in the majors with 22 HR, and Howard is 6th in the majors with 19. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (36-25) continue their homestand against the AL East this week with the Toronto Blue Jays (34-31). The Phillies come off a tough series with the Boston Red Sox, in which they lost the first game on 13 innings after a unreviewed and debatable foul homerun call, lost the second game after falling behind 5-0 after a first inning rain delay, and managed a comeback victory against Josh Beckett in the series finale. The Blue Jays have fallen to five games behind the very team that took two of three in Philly this past weekend, after getting swept by the Marlins, and have now lost four in a row. Their offense this year has been pretty solid, putting up nearly 5 runs a game, and in 5th place in runs scored in the AL. Their pitching has been pretty solid, with a 4.30 team ERA. A lot of that is thanks to the excellent season that Roy Halladay has had thus far. Fortuantely for the Phillies, Halladay himself is injured right now, and may go on the disabled list. Certainly, he will miss his scheduled start this Wednesday against the Phillies.

On Tuesday night, Cole Hamels looks to rebound after a disappointing performance against the Mets in which he gave up 11 hits in 5 innings, and surrendered 4 runs. He will go up against LHP Ricky Romero, who has been okay this year, despite a high HR/flyball rate. He has started 7 games thus far, with an ERA of 3.71.

On Wednesday night, the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the hill. He has had an up and down season, though he has shown signs of improving recently. The Blue Jays will probably send out Scott Richmond on Wednesday. He has some vulnerability to the longball, especially by left-handed hitters. Otherwise, he is a pretty average pitcher.

On Thursday night, Joe Blanton will pitch for the Phillies. Blanton has struck out more hitters than ever before, but still has enough bad luck that his ERA is high. He is turning it around in recent starts as well. The Blue Jays will send Casey Janssen to the mound on Thursday night. Janssen is a contact-pitcher who gets a lot of groundballs when he's successful.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Ricky Romero (L)

Wednesday 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Scott Richmond (R)

Thursday 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Casey Janssen (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .298/.397/.439

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .313/.351/.495

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .275/.330/.457

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .238/.296/.369

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .300/.364/.534

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .320/.386/.457

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .283/.393/.547

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .268/.299/.399

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .255/.388/.355

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .255/.255/.319

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .227/.227/.227

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .240/.307/.384

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Joe Inglett (L): .150/.227/.150

proj: .280/.340/.390
bb: 7.5%
k: 15%
gb: 48%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: patient with good eye, above average contact
r/l: .759 vs .624 ops; 2.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .681 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.71 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.02 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero: has not played any Phillies

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Scott Richmond (R): 3.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.44 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond: has not played any Phillies

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.27 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Brian Tallet (L): 4.87 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.69 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Scott Downs (L): 2.05 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.09 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 66% fb, 31% cb, 3% sl, 0.1% ch
r/l: .784 vs .641 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .649 vs .842 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb

Downs vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jason Frasor (R): 1.93 ERA, 1.2 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.52 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.22 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1 BB
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 6.06 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.93 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 3.91 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.73 FIP, 62% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: has not faced any Phillies

OPTIONED TO AAA: Brian Wolfe (R): 7.56 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% ct, 16% ch, 2% ch, 1% sl
r/l: .561 vs .915 ops; 3.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .723 ops; 2.7 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wolfe vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.254/.330

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .287/.338/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .305/.438/.577

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.330/.566

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.440

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .318/.365/.445

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .284/.405/.459

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.359/.430

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .167/.263/.250

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .175/.250/.316

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .289/.460/.553

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.73 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 13/38, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 11/29, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 9/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 6/16, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 2/6, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.17 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista< 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.53 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 1.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.84 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 4.76 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.55 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
hill: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.14 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.30 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
OVerbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 0/1,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.08 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.60 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 7/19, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
SScutaro: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.23 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.67 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 1 BB
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): has not played yet in 2009

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

Phillies vs. Red Sox: June 12-14

MattS — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 21:30:42 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Raul Ibanez gives the Phillies some momentum going into this weekend, as the 2007 and 2008 World Series Champions face off against each other. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (35-23) come back home to face the Boston Red Sox (36-24) for a three game weekend series. Both the 2007 and the 2008 World Series Champions play this exciting series after beating up on their rivals. The Phillies have just taken two of three from the Mets at CitiField, and the Red Sox have just swept the Yankees in Boston. The Red Sox now have a two game lead over the Yankees, and the Phillies now have a four game lead over the Mets. The Mets and Yankees will face off against each other this weekend as well.

On Friday night, the Red Sox send the unlucky Jon Lester to the mound, who has dominated this year, despite having an ERA over 5. The chief culprit in Lester's bad luck has been his .353 BABIP, but an oddly high 14.5% HR/Flyball rate isn't helping either. In reality, Lester's peripheral statistics look more like a sub-4 ERA pitcher's this year. The Phillies send fellow unlucky pitcher Joe Blanton to the mound. Blanton has finally found some luck in recent starts, but he still has a .331 BABIP and a 16.0% HR/FB, both well above average, leading to a 5.46 that would probably be in the low 4's without bad luck.

On Saturday night, the Red Sox will send another unlucky righty to the mound in the person of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka has only thrown 27 innings this year, and has been wild on them, but his .453 BABIP belies a pitcher who has shown a good bit of skill at striking guys out with 29 in those 27 innings. The Phillies send young lefty Antonio Bastardo on the mound Saturday night. He has put together two solid starts and earned a third one in Philadelphia, but with call-up Kyle Kendrick today to replace to newly injured Scott Eyre, Bastardo probably needs to continue pitching well to keep that spot.

On Sunday afternoon, the Red Sox send ace Josh Beckett to the mound who has put together a strong season thus far. Beckett also has been a little vulernable to walks, but has also struck out a batter per inning this year. The Phillies respond with J.A. Happ, who has generally been strong since joining the rotation, but struggled against the Mets at CitiField on Tuesday night. Happ will look to rebound against the Red Sox this weekend.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Josh Beckett (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and batter/pitcher matchups of both rosters.

RED SOX

LINE UP

1) CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L): .302/.343/.370

projection average (proj): .290/.350/.415
projected BB/PA (bb): 7.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14%
career gb% (gb): 51%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 16%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i projected him around .300. my system was conservative based on limited data available, since he's fast and has an ability to hit the ball hard.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): not a great eye but patient, very good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .770 vs .689 ops; 1.8 vs 2.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .818 vs .684 ops; 1.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around well
anything else (other): extremely fast; good against groundball pitchers

2) 2B Dustin Pedroia (R): .306/.401/.406

proj: .310/.370/.465
bb: 8%
k: 8%
gb: 43%
iff: 24%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .320; i have him around .310; he does pop out a lot
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, great contact
r/l: .829 vs .832 ops; 1.0 vs 0.6 k/bb
h/a: .899 vs .763 ops; 0.9 vs 0.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

3) RF J.D. Drew (L): .267/.393/.500

proj: .270/.385/.470
bb: 15%
k: 21%
gb: 39%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: projected around .310 which is exactly where i have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patient, average contact skill
r/l: .922 vs .798 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .926 vs .860 ops; 1.1 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against SP as game goes on

4) 1B Kevin Youkilis (R): .350/.472/.631

proj: .285/.380/.475
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: i have him around .329 which is similar to where other systems have him. he hits the ball hard and oesn't pop up.
s/c/z: good eye and very patient, decent contact
r/l: .870 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .890 vs .858 ops; 1.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Jason Bay (R): .277/.399/.592

proj: .270/.360/.500
bb: 12%
k: 26%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 12%
babip: projected around .325
s/c/z: good eye and patient, below average contact
r/l: .888 vs .932 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .893 vs .905 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: very distinct pull hitter
other: none

6) DH David Ortiz (L): .203/.299/.338

proj: .270/.380/.500
bb: 15%
k: 19.5%
gb: 34%
iff: 8%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .296 which is about where everyone else does
s/c/z: great eye, somewhat patient, slightly below average contact, sees few strikes
r/l: .965 vs .823 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .945 vs .902 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers moreso than others, better against groundball pitchers

7) 3B Mike Lowell (R): .292/.325/.502

proj: .275/.340/.450
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i projected him at .300 but other systems have him slightly below.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, above average contact
r/l: .800 vs .851 ops; 1.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .845 vs .780 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) C Jason Varitek (S): .236/.328/.497

proj: .235/.330/.385
bb: 11.5%
k: 27%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290 but i had him around .280
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, somewhat bad contact
r/l: .767 vs .839 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .815 vs .761 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter both ways but not extreme
other: none

(9) SS Julio Lugo (R): .256/.330/.341

proj: .260/.330/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: i projected him around .308 which other systems were similar to.
s/c/z: patient with good eye, decent contact
r/l: .832 vs .628 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .747 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C George Kottaras (L): .212/.271/.346

proj: .235/.330/.405
bb: 10%
k: 25%
gb: 34%
iff: 6%
ifh: 0%
babip: projected all over the place but averages about average
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .660 vs .419 ops thus far
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

SS Nick Green (R): .279/.336/.419

proj: .240/.290/.390
bb: 7%
k: 26%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, below average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .642 vs .732 ops; 4.0 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .674 vs .66 ops; 3.3 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/OF Mark Kotsay (L): .286/.333/.500

proj: .270/.330/.385
bb: 8%
k: 12%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: good eye, pretty good patience, good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .758 vs .731 ops; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .761 vs .742 ops; 1.2 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Rocco Baldelli (R): .259/.306/.414

proj: .280/.330/.470
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 50%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .320 whcih might be a bit high
s/c/z: somewhat poor eye and a little impatient; not good contact skill
r/l: .739 vs .836 ops; 4.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .771 vs .761 ops; 2.8 vs 5.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Jon Lester (L): 5.09 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 57% fb, 22% ct, 17% cb, 4% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .756 vs .734 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .727 vs .774 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lester vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Daisuke Matsuzaka (R): 7.33 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 52% fb, 23% sl, 15% ct, 4% cb, 4% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .684 vs .744 ops; 2.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .673 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb

Matsuzaka vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 2/11, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 4/7, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Josh Beckett (R): 3.77 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 3.45 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 7% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .668 vs .724 ops; 3.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .688 vs .705 ops; 2.9 vs 3.2 k/bb

Beckett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 11/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 4 K
Utley: 6/22, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Stairs: 2/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 4/9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Tim Wakefield (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 81% kn, 13% fb, 6% cb
r/l: .761 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .737 vs .744 ops; 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb

Wakefield vs Phillies:

Stairs: 14/52, 5 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 8/28, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Brad Penny (R): 5.32 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.37 ERA, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 16% cb, 10% sf, 4% ch
r/l: .751 vs .728 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .710 vs .770 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb

Penny vs Phillies:

Rollins: 9/47, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 5/36, 2 2B, 2 BB, 9 K
Utley: 4/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Stairs: 3/13, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Victorino: 1/7, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL Jonathan Papelbon (R): 2.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.50 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 81% fb, 13% sf, 6% sl
r/l: .563 vs .550 ops; 6.4 vs 3.8 k/bb
h/a: .571 vs .541 ops; 4.5 vs 4.8 k/bb

Papelbon vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Hideki Okajima (L): 2.42 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 54% fb, 25% cb, 21% ch, 0.1% sf in 2008; 62% fb, 21% sf, 17% cb in 2009
r/l: .586 vs .583 ops; 2.5 vs 4.0 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .498 ops; 3.1 vs 2.9 k/bb

Okajima vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorion: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Ramon Ramirez (R): 1.86 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.36 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 48% fb, 19% sl, 33% ch, 0.4% sf
r/l: .565 vs .716 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .577 ops; 2.3 vs 2.3 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Manny Delcarmen (R): 2.08 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.35 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 67% fb, 18% cb, 15% ch
r/l: .660 vs .652 ops; 3.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .619 vs .693 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb

Delcarmen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Takashi Saito (R): 2.53 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 22% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 65% fb, 26% sl, 9% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .486 vs .578 ops; 5.0 vs 4.2 k/bb
h/a: .517 vs .548 ops; 4.4 vs 5.1 k/bb

Saito vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Daniel Bard (R): 0.82 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 51% in minors
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 3% ch early in 2009
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Bard: has not played any Phillies

Justin Masterson (R): 4.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.80 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .619 vs .783 ops; 2.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Masterson vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.262/.333

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .288/.336/.450

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .302/.438/.588

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.331/.567

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .255/.351/.425

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.377/.674

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .312/.362/.427

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .287/.410/.475

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.356/.440

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.226/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .196/.276/.353

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .306/.479/.583

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Red Sox:

Lugo: 7/26, 2 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 6/20, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Varitek: 5/22, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K
Youkilis: 6/18, 1 3B, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Lowell: 4/20, 1 BB, 4 K
Pedroia: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Drew: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ellsbury: 2/11, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.45 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Red Sox

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.98 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.41 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Red Sox

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Red Sox:

Lugo: 3/5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Drew: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bay: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Baldelli: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Red Sox:

Ortiz: 13/36, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 4 HBP
Varitek: 8/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K
Moyer: 19/33, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Lugo: 7/15, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Baldelli: 1/10, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Youkilis: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Bay: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 2.08 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.87 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Red Sox:

Lowell: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Drew: 2/6, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Green: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bay: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.74 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1 BB

Chad Durbin (R): 4.22 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.52 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Red Sox:

Varitek: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K
Lowell: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ortiz; 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Drew: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Bailey: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.27 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Red Sox:

Drew: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Condrey: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.87 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 10/32, 2 2B, 1 3b, 1 HR, 4 BB, 3 K
Drew: 6/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ortiz: 1/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Lugo: 1/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Lowell: 0/8, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Varitek: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Bay: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.28 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Baldelli: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kyle Kendrick (R): AAA STATS: 4.03 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45.5%
pitches: 72% fb, 21% sl, 6% ch, 0.5% cb for 2007-08 (allegedly has been working on changeup in AAA this year)
r/l: .704 vs .937 ops; 3.0 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .791 vs .852 ops; 1.6 vs 1.25 k/bb

Kendrick vs. Red Sox:

Kotsay: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ellsbury: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Lugo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Red Sox:

Bay: 6/15, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Drew: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Lowell: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Red Sox:

Varitek: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 4 K
Kotsay: 2/8, 5 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Drew: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Mets: June 9-11

MattS — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:03:44 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Cole Hamels and the Phillies head to New York to face the Mets. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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The Phillies (33-22) head back east to face their rivals up north, The New York Mets (30-25), this week for a three games series. The Mets have taken three of four games from the Phillies thus far in the season series, but the Phillies will get a chance to go up against a very hobbled Mets team. The Mets are without four above average baseball players-- Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Oliver Perez, J.J. Putz-- and a number of people who replaced them, including Angel Pagan and Ramon Martinez. Many others have had injuries as well. With probably 13 WAR of talent on the DL, the Mets are an average team, and the Phillies are not. With a three game lead, it's pretty clear how much this series can tell the story. If the Mets sweep, the Phillies early advantage will have completely eroded. If the Phillies sweep, the Phillies will have built a six-game lead that people will be floored if they lose. If the Phillies take two of three, they come out with a solid four game lead, and if the Mets take two of three, they have closed the gap to just two games. Clearly, a lot of the story of the first 58 games depends on this series.

The Mets sent their ace, Johan Santana, to the mound against the Phillies' J.A. Happ for game one. This doesn't look promising for the Phillies, but the two faced off once before with an outcome that many did not expect.

In game two, the Phillies will send out their ace, Cole Hamels, to the mound, against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has a mediocre ERA of 4.85, but even that is lucky as he has allowed exactly zero homeruns this year on 60 flyballs-- which probably has lowered his ERA by nearly a point and a half.

The series finale will pit Jamie Moyer up against Tim Redding in a game that could very well screw with the CitiField park factors. Moyer has put together a couple solid starts in a row, but still has struggled mightily this season, especially against good teams. Tim Redding is probably not who the Mets intended to throw out against the Phillies in possible rubber matches, but then, again Alex Cora wasn't their intended shortstop either.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Johan Santana (L)

Wednesday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Mike Pelfrey (R)

Thursday, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Tim Redding (R)

(Thursday starter typo edited thanks to some helpful comments)

METS

LINE UP

1) IF Alex Cora (L): .297/.403/.406

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .277/.378/.329

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

3) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .342/.436/.554

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .259/.394/.455

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B David Wright (R): .345/.448/.500

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

6) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .247/.330/.370

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

7) RF Ryan Church (L): .277/.331/.362

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(8) C Brian Schneider (L): .219/.316/.313

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .261/.287/.435

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Wilson Valdez (R): .200/.238/.350

proj: .245/.305/.340
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 59%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: slightly poor eye, somewhat impatient, average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .526 vs .535 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .594 vs .459 ops; 1.6 vs 10.5 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Martinez (L): .200/.300/.314

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .311/.344/.393

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .273/.345/.404

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez: (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 2.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 13/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/22, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/20, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/20, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 6/17, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K

WEDNESDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.85 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/15, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 5/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Tim Redding (R): 6.97 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.11 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/32, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Howard: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Utley: 8/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/16, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 2/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.99 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Livan Hernandez (R): 3.88 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.22 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.12 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 0.68 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.78 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/7, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.96 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.35 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.25 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/25, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Fernando Nieve (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.49 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Sean Green (R): 5.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1 BB

Ken Takahashi (L): 2.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 39% GB

Takahashi vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.261/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.343/.467

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .296/.438/.548

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .259/.337/.577

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.355/.437

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .329/.386/.676

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .306/.361/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .309/.435/.511

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .229/.341/.414

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.212/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .188/.273/.354

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .324/.500/.618

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY'S STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.40 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Pagan: 2/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.27 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 6.09 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 13/59, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 16/38, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/30, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 4/17, 2 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Tatis: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.48 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 2/6, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.22 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.89 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/14, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1 Sac

Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Beltran: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 1 BB
Pagan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Pagan: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Reed: 3/14, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Dodgers: June 4-7

MattS — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:21:34 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

J.C. Romero is back with the Phillies, in time to face the team that leads the NL in runs. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (31-20) head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers (37-18), on the heels of two sweeps. The Dodgers continue to surge as well, having taken two of three from the Diamondbacks and winning eight of the their last ten games. The Phillies now have the second best record in the majors, but the Dodgers have the best record. Both teams send three lefties to the mound in four games.

MATCHUPS:

Thursday, 10:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Clayton Kershaw (L)

Friday, 10:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Eric Milton (L)

Saturday, 4:10-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Hiroki Kuroda (R)

Sunday, 8:00-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Randy Wolf (L)

Below the jump, I preview all the players, splits, and matchups.

DODGERS

LINE UP

1) OF Juan Pierre (L): .371/.434/.483

proj: .285/.325/.360
bb: 5.5%
k: 7%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: he's projected around average (.300) but my research puts him closer to .310 he's very fast though not powerful and does popout a little. however, he spreads the ball around pretty well.
s/c/z: quite bad eye the past few years despite having a good eye early in career, somewhat impatient, great contact skill
r/l: .726 vs .694 ops; 0.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .735 vs .700 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: none

2) SS Rafael Furcal (S): .244/.308/.301

projection average (proj): .285/.355/.410
projected BB/PA (bb): 10%
projected K/AB (k): 13.5%
career gb% (gb): 50%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 7%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected slightly above average due to speed; he spreads the ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits so the .315-ish BABIP projection makes sense
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye and patient, good contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .749 vs .801 ops; 1.4 k/bb both ways; more power as RHB
home/away (h/a): .821 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; much more power at home
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other):

3) 2B Orlando Hudson (S): .329/.410/.468

proj: .280/.355/.415
bb: 16%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected above average (.315-ish)-- pretty good at avoiding infield flies and has done very well on line drives historically despite unamazing power; my research indicates he should be around .323
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient; pretty good contact skill too
r/l: .808 vs .709 ops; 1.6 k/bb both ways
h/a: .824 vs .745 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as RHB but opposite field hitter as LHB
other: better against groundball pitchers (.835 vs .703 ops)

4) RF Andre Ethier (L): .262/.363/.435

proj: .295/.365/.470
bb: 9.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected high (.330-ish) which makes sense given that he rarely pops out, and hits his flyballs far; my research suggests he should be around .335
s/c/z: pretty good eye and good contact skill (especially high given high strikeout rate)
r/l: .882 vs .758 ops; 1.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .889 vs .822 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) C Russell Martin (R): .267/.377/.318

proj: .285/.380/.430
bb: 12.5%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .315, but my research sees him around average (.301) since he pops out a lot and isn't especially fast
s/c/z: very patient, pretty good eye, average contact
r/l: .762 vs .900 ops; 1.3 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .803 vs .786 ops; 1.1 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) 1B James Loney (L): ..284/.350/.379

proj: .295/.350/.455
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320, probably because he hits a lot of balls hard. my research suggest around .309.
s/c/z: not so great eye but close to to average, good contact skill, thrown a lot of pitches out of the strike zone
r/l: .865 vs .731 ops; 1.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .729 vs .925 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

7) CF Matt Kemp (R): .310/.376/483

proj: .300/.350/475
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 3%
ifh: 10%
babip: extremely high BABIP on groundballs which makes sense somewhat given infield hit rate, but .354 career seems high. however, my research sees him coming in around .352. Avoiding popouts explains why his BABIP is high on flyballs and he hits balls hard, so he should be good on flyballs. projected .360 BABIP isn't all that ridiculous, but probably should be lower.
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .782 vs .930 ops; 4.1 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .865 vs .787 ops; 3.7 vs 3.4 k/bb; much power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers (do the dodgers play the same terrible groundball pitcher or something?)

8) 3B Casey Blake (R): .295/.368/.542

proj: .265/.335/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 22%
gb: 40%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. my research puts him around .315. he doesn't popout much and gets a decent number of infield hits.
s/c/z: patient hitter with okay eye and slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .765 vs .822 ops; 2.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .726 vs .832 ops; 2.4 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Brad Ausmus (R): .314/.368/.343

proj: .220/.300/.290
bb: 9.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 51%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .270, which makes sense given his mediocre strikeout rate, weak power, his propensity to pop out, and his slow speed.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .653 vs .729 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .641 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Mark Loretta (R): .288/.408/.339

proj: .275/.340/.365
bb: 9%
k: 11%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around average which seems about right.
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, very good contact
r/l: .742 vs .805 ops; 1.4 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .802 vs .722 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Juan Castro (R): .326/.396/.435

proj: .220/.270/.320
bb: 5.5%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected very low (around .260). he doesn't have much power and isn't particularly fast, so this could be right.
s/c/z: good eye, not very patient, average contact
r/l: .605 vs .582 ops; 4.1 vs 1.8 k/bb; much more power against RHB though
h/a: .600 vs .598 ops; 3.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Jamie Hoffman (R): .167/.150/.144

proj: .250/.305/.360
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 37% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: looks like he's projected to be average but not much info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: better eye against lefties in minors so better but tought to tell
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Clayton Kershaw (L): 4.34 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% cb, 5% ch, 0.3% sl
r/l: .752 vs .741 ops; 1.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .667 vs .843 ops; 2.9 vs 1.4 k/bb

Kershaw vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/7, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 2/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Eric Milton (L): 3.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 66% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 6% sl, 0.2% ct
r/l: .775 vs .807 ops; 2.4 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .779 vs .784 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb

Milton vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 6/11, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
WertH: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Hiroki Kuroda (R): 2.53 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 59% fb, 26% sl, 12% sf, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .605 vs .703 ops; 3.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .615 vs .688 ops; 4.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Kuroda vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utey: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Randy Wolf (L): 3.21 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 18% cb, 13% sl, 9% ch
r/l: .761 vs .706 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .724 vs .776 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Wolf vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/16, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Chad Billingsley (R): 2.59 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.85 FIP, 49% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 19% ct, 18% cb, 2% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .634 vs .766 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .695 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Billingsley vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/8, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/7, 3 BB (2 IBB), 4 K
Victorino: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/7, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Jonathan Broxton (R): 1.33 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.26 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 75% fb, 22% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .539 vs .694 ops; 7.7 vs 1.7 k/bb (major difference is walks)
h/a: .559 vs .671 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Broxton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ronald Belisario (R): 2.23 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.61 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 81% fb, 18% sl, 0.4% ch
r/l: .533 vs .862 ops; 8k/0bb vs rhb, 9k/7bb vs lhb
h/a: .769 vs .615; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Belisario vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Cory Wade (R): 4.82 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 56% fb, 28% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .588 vs .584 ops; 2.3 vs 8.7 k/bb (not much data)
h/a: .421 vs .730 ops; 6.2 vs 2.2 k/bb (not much data)

Wade vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Guillermo Mota (R): 6.53 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.47 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 55% fb, 25% sl, 20% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .678 vs .727 op; 2.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .680 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Mota vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brent Leach (L): 5.63 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.15 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50% in minors last year
pitches: ?
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb in minors last year
h/a: not enough info

Leach vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ramon Troncoso (R): 1.83 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% ch, 4% sl, 0.5% ct
r/l: .647 vs .633 ops; 2.6 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .617 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Troncoso vs Phillies:

Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

Jeff Weaver (R): 4.05 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.57 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.15 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 50% fb, 20% sl, 16% cb, 7% ct, 8% ch
r/l: .687 vs .858 ops; 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .770 vs .785 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Weaver vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 13/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 7/17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 5/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Travis Schlichting (R): has not played

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 40% in mionrs
pitches: ?
r/l: better control against RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Schlichting: has not played any Phillies

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.270/.336

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.349/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .298/.437/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.348/.591

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall-- my system sees him at .310.
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .251/.346/.448

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .337/.395/.703

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .298/.356/.421

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .291/.419/.477

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288, but he seems to have trouble matching projections for him.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .135/.190/.243

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .200/.288/.378

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .303/.477/.606

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .246/.364/.446

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Dodgers:

Blake: 4/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Hudson: 2/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Loney: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Pierre: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ethier: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.56 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Hudson: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Blake: 3/19, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Pierre: 3/13, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Furcal: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/21, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 Sac
Kemp: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 4/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Frucal: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 1.50 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 19% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1 SF
Kemp: 1 BB
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.40 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.39 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.93 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/14, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Hudson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 1/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Loney: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1 BB, 2 Sac
Kemp: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.84 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 6.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 4/15, 2 BB, 4 K
Furcal: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Pierre: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac
Ausmus: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Furcal: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ausmus: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.23 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kemp: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Loretta: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/1, 0BB, 0K
Pierre: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 7/8, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 4/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Blake: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 7.32 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.23 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 13/28, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 Sac
Furcal: 8/25, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 7/23, 0 BB, 5 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 Sac
Hudson: 5/14, 2 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ethier: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Martin: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/10, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 2/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 3 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies at Padres: June 1-3

MattS — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 03:04:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Adrian Gonzalez leads the majors in homeruns despite hitting at Petco Park. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies crept back barely into first place this weekend, maintaining a half game lead by sweeping the Nationals. The Padres had an early season lead in the West when they came to Philadelphia during the second weekend of the season, and they took two of three from the Phillies before the fourth game of the series was rained out. Now, the Padres are back down to .500 at 25-25. The Phillies themselves sit in first at 28-20.

Monday's game pits Joe Blanton against Kevin Correia. Correia is an okay pitcher who is able to put up decent number in a pitcher's park, though not particularly this year. Blanton is coming off a solid starts in which he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out a career high eleven batters.

Tuesday's game will be a tough one as still-a-Padre Jake Peavy goes up against Antonio Bastardo, who will be making his major league debut. Bastardo is a lefty who has torn through AA and AAA this year, earning him the start in Myers' stead. Peavy is putting up another solid season, despite swirling trade rumors.

Wednesday's game pits the Phillies' J.A. Happ against the Padres' Chris Young. Chris Young has been okay this year, but has struggled to strike out as many hitters and has walked quite a few more as well. Happ has been solid in his first couple starts since joining the rotation after a solid display in the bullpen early on.

All three games will be pretty late in the eastern time zone, so stay tuned to The Good Phight for coverage if you have some silly reason that you can't stay up til one in the morning.

MATCHUPS

Monday, 10:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Kevin Correia (R)

Tuesday, 10:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Jake Peavy (R)

Wednesday, 10:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Chris Young (R)

After the jump, I breakdown the players and their splits.

PADRES

LINE UP

(1) RF Brian Giles (L): .192/.282/.285

proj: .280/.375/.420
bb: 13%
k: 12%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: excellent eye and excellent contact skill
r/l: .966/.788 ops; 0.6 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: about the same
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(2) 2B David Eckstein (R): .246/.326/.322

proj: .275/.340/.350
bb: 7%
k: 9%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: pretty good on groundballs but pretty low on line drives, high groundball rate helps-- about average overall
s/c/z: very good contact and sees a lot of pitches in zone. swings at below average number of strikes but average number of non-strikes.
r/l: .700/.741 ops; k/bb is 1.2 vs 0.8
h/a: .738/.687
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: used to steal bases more frequently but only tried 3 times last year and was caught once. He hasn't tried to steal yet this year. In 2007, he cut back to 11 attempts.

(3) OF Scott Hairston (R): .326/.387/.560

proj: .255/.325/.465
bb: 8.5%
k: 23%
gb: 36%
iff: 16%
ifh: 12%
babip: slightly below average, .290ish, since he pops out a lot, but good on groundball since he gets infield hits and decent on line drives as he has some power
s/c/z: slightly below average contact
r/l: 3.5 vs 2.5 k/bb; .712 vs .842 ops
h/a: a bit better at home in career but seemingly mostly luck so far
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(4) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L): .287/.394/.641

proj: .280/.355/.500
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 5%
ifh: 2%
babip: above average, around .315, rarely pops out, though doesn't get many infield hits. power indicates he should do well on linedrives
s/c/z: swings at average amount of balls, but lets fewer strikes pass than other players; somewhat below average contact
r/l: .886/.743 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: far more power on road (park effects) but slightly better k/bb at home (1.9 vs 2.4) and better babip at home (.328 vs .283)
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well for power hitter
other: far more success against finesse pitchers

(5) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R): .228/.281/.348

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 5.5%
k: 20%
gb: 41%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: average all around, low on groundballs and high on flyballs due to infield hit/fly rates
s/c/z: free swinger and chases a lot of pitches while at it, pitchers don't throw him that many pitches out of strike zone, despite that and somewhat low contact rate
r/l: typical
h/a: better on road, even at k/bb rates
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

(6) LF Chase Headley (S): .236/.309/.366

proj: .265/.345/.430
bb: 10%
k: 27%
gb: 38%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projection systems have him high-- like .330s+, but it seems like it he should be around .310 or so, since even though he pops out rarely, he doesn't get many infield hits and his groundball rate was abnormally high last year. even then, given that his eye is nothing special and his contact skills aren't great, he's likely due for a drop-- i think his overall projections are probably high
s/c/z: not a great eye and prone to chase, poor contact skills
r/l: only 140 career PA as RHB so it's tough to know
h/a: not enough info, so far better away but mostly luck based stats
p/o: definite pull hitter both ways
other:

(7) C Nick Hundley (R): .250/.348/.408

proj: .235/.285/.400
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected to be poor and tough to tell from small mlb sample size
s/c/z: average all around so far, it seems
r/l: very small sample size but 5.0 vs 2.9 k/bb difference
h/a: 3.1 vs 5.3 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(8) SS Chris Burke (R): .206/.270/.324

proj: .245/.325/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17.5%
gb: 38%
iff: 18%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .285 which might be a little high given popout rate and lack of significant power or contact skill, though he has some success with groundball babip
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, okay contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .648 vs .730 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .708 vs .652 ops; 2.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Henry Blanco (R): .172/.273/.345

proj: .240/.290/.350
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: not much power and tendency to pop up; below average
s/c/z: good eye, okay contact
r/l: a little more power right-handed
h/a: a little better k/bb at home but fewer extra base hits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Edgar Gonzalez (R): .180/.261/.426

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: definitely above average, rarely pops out and makes solid contact
s/c/z: great eye and good contact
r/l: k/bb of 4.7 vs 1.6; .685 vs .750 ops
h/a: typical given park effects
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Josh Wilson (R): .209/.292/.279

proj: .245/.305/.365
bb: 7%
k: 20%
gb: 43%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected slightly below average, around .295, which seems about right
s/c/z: not a great eye but somewhat patient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .600 vs .594 ops in 259/104 PAs; 3.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .578 vs .623 ops; 4.9 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. (L): .320/.393/.440

proj: .250/.315/.330
bb: 8%
k: 16.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 5%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected around .305 which seems about right
s/c/z: very patient with pretty good eye and above average contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
r/l: .599 vs .688 but only 30 career PA vs LHP; 2.3 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .585 vs .628 ops; 1.6 vs 4.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Cliff Floyd (L): 0 for1 with 1 K

proj: .255/.340/.410
bb: 9.5%
k: 20%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290 which could be right given powerful slow popout hitter
s/c/z: good eye with so-so contact, but his eye is actually deteriorated
r/l: .856 vs .793 ops; 1.5 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .861 vs .823 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Kevin Correia (R): 5.11 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 42%

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 27% sl, 9% ch, 4% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.2; .762 vs .819
h/a: similar

Correia vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Jake Peavy (R): 3.67 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.13 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 57% fb, 18% sl, 17% ct, 7% cb, 6% ch
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.6 k/bb, .603 vs .740 ops
h/a: .614/.737 ops's, 3.7/2.5 k/bb's

Peavy vs Phillies:

Feliz: 8/39, 2 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 7 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B< 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Chris Young (R): 4.45 eRA, 4.45 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.85 ERA, 3.85 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 75% fb, 18% sl, 5% ch, 2% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb, .647 vs .674 ops
h/a: 2.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Young vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/15, 1 Bb, 3 K
Utley: 4/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 2/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Josh Geer (R): 5.17 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 64% fb, 22% ch, 14% sl

Geer vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Chad Gaudin (R): 4.76 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.94 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 64% fb, 28 sl, 8% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .744 vs .812 ops; 2.7 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .773 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb

Gaudin vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/18, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULPEN

CL Heath Bell (R): 1.27 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 4.7 vs 2.2 k/bb but .687 vs .616 ops since more power surrendered to lhb
h/a: .573/.726 ops split but k/bb even

Bell vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 0/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
WertH: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Edward Mujica (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 67% fb, 9% sl, 6% cb, 2% ch, 17% sf
r/l: 8.0 k/bb vs righties, but mostly just no walks; 1.5 k/bb vs lefties in minimal experience
h/a: not enough info

Mujica vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Greg Burke (R): 1.35 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.96 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53% in majors so far
pitches: 71% fb, 28% sl, 1% ch
r/l: not much of a clear split in minors
h/a: not enough info

Burke: has not played any Phillies

Cla Meredith (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 61% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 69%
pitches: 79% fb (I think sinkers count as fastballs on fangraphs), 18% sl, 3% ch
r/l: 4.3 vs 1.4; .612 vs .794: major ROOGY
h/a: .637 vs .721 and 2.9 vs 2.7 k/bb

Meredith vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/9, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Luke Gregerson (R): 3.38 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: unprojected
gb: very high groundball rates in minors
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 9% ch, 3% cb in majors so far
r/l: much better against righties and walks a lot of lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Gregerson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Thatcher (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 78% fb, 13% sl, 6% ct, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .717 vs .978 ops in majors with 1.1 vs 3.0 k/bb-- reverse split
h/a: 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb; .725 vs .851 ops

Thatcher vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Luis Perdomo (R): 4.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47% in AAA
pitches: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Perdomo vs Phillies:

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Werth: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.270/.337

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .293/.342/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .294/.430/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.340/.573

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .253/.342/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .332/.394/.684

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .302/.365/.432

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .304/.427/.506

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .254/.356/.460

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .132/.250/.211

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .281/.465/.594

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Padres:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 3/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): has not played in majors 2009; but in AA: 1.82 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9 in 34.2 IP; in AAA: 2.08 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 in 13 IP

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

WEDNESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Padres:

Hundley: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Burke: 4/15, 1 BB, 6 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/12, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 4/10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Eckstein: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Headley: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.57 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Padres:

Eckstein: 14/56, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Giles: 4/17, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 3 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sf
Kouzmanoff: 5/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 5/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Hariston: 0/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.71 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Padres:

Eckstein: 2/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 2/8, 1 3B, 2 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Kouzmanoff: 3/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.90 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Padres:

A.Gonzalez: 4/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 3/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.09 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.50 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Padres:

Giles: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Eckstein: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Burke: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Padres:

Eckstein: 1/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Padres:

Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Padres:

Eckstein: 7/23, 2 2B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 7/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/11, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 HBP
Gerut: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Burke: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Kouzmanoff: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Padres:

Giles: 1/8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Gerut: 0/7, 2 BB, 3 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K