SB Nation User Blog: Matthew

7/3: Open Game Thread Part 2

Matthew — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 01:15:23 -0000

Please be good, Shawn.

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

Matthew — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:37:20 -0000

Seattle: 40-38
Boston: 48-30

SUMMARY

	MARINERS	RED SOX	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-45.3 (28th)	29.4 (5th)	BOS
FIELDING (UZR)	22.6 (5th)	-17.8 (26th)	SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)	5.4 (14th)	19.1 (10th)	BOS
BULLPEN (pRAA)	-13.2 (26th)	14.3 (4th)	BOS
OVERALL(RAA)	-30.5	45.0	Boston

Boston is a really good team at everything but fielding.

I know we lost the series to the Yanks, but we did not lose badly, and really, as long as do not get swept by Boston, I am declaring this road trip a success. 4-5 against the three best teams in baseball, on the road? That is fine. Anything else is gravy.

Of course, the first game gives us that best chance, with Felix on the bump. I am not that afraid of Brad Penny, but I am afraid of Garrett Olson against the Red Sox offense. Ditto Morrow, and facing Lester is not a great situation either. Lose tonight and I will get worried about a sweep. Win tonight and there is nothing left but a ride on the Good Times slip'n'slide of grooviness.

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Tim Wakefield
Game 2: Garrett Olson* vs. Brad Penny
Game 3: Brandon Morrow vs. Jon Lester*

Watching this team hit against Wakefield should hopefully be a spectacle of some nature. Speaking of, what is there to say about him? Interestingly, while his tRA has remained stable, his 2009 is a major outlier in terms of pitch results. Always around the 35% mark in ball% and a shade under 9% in missed bats, Wakefield is at 38% and 6% this season. As you would guess, the strikeouts are down and the walks are up. In fact, the only thing keeping his tRA low is a flukey low home run rate.

Brad Penny is having some moderate success this year, despite me thinking that he has been terrible. His fastball velocity has rebounded to pre-injury levels and some of his control has returned, though his swinging strike rate remains mediocre. Penny is a fastball-curveball guy almost exclusively.

Jon Lester has been really good this year, his fastball velocity is up over a mile per hour and his swinging strike rate eclipsing 10% for the first time. He has also maintained his strong ground ball rates. A poor home run rate and .336 BABIP is making him look more human than he has pitched.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Pushing the Envelope Extreme
Willimantic Brewing Company. Willimantic, CT

"An India Pale ale brewed with 755 lbs of malt and aggressively hopped with Centennial, Chinook, Simcoe and Columbus." That is how you make an imperial IPA, by amping up the malts and the hops.

Report Card: Position Players, June

Matthew — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:13:17 -0000

Record: 15-10, 39-37 overall
Position: 3rd, 3.5 games back of Anaheim
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 23.0% (+9%)
CoolStandings Odds: 14.9% (+10%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEFENSE

Source: FanGraphs. Standard caveats that this is only one measurement and a very small sample.

Our third month, and our third month with a new division leader. If you are holding out hope that Oakland is leading come August 1st, I have a bridge to sell you.

The Mariners defense was outstanding in April, when they racked up a +7.3 UZR. They slowed down to a +3.4 figure in May, leaving them at +10.7 total, a very good number. Their UZR for the month of June was 12.1! They key difference was a decided lack of black holes dragging down the team total. Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt actually both turned in positive months! A feat so outrageous I had to put it in font as dark as Yuni.

Once again, Franklin Gutierrez continued to be a man beast with a massive 5.5 Range rating. For a center fielder to get a Range that high is just mind boggling. That man covers more prime real estate than a Kirkland strip mall. Endy Chavez also busted out in a big way, with a team-leading 5.3 UZR right up to the point where his knee went kablooey. Endy compiled that 5.3 figure in 70 innings. 70 innings! That is about eight games worth. During June, Endy's glove alone was 1.5 runs above average per game. He will be missed. At least, until we finally get to see Ryan Langerhans play dammit.

Speaking of injuries, it is a wonder to think how good the team would have looked had Adrian Beltre had a more typical Beltre month instead of a rather big outlier. Not that it was that surprising, any man would be hard pressed to maintain a +4.5 UZR/month pace at third pace, even a man such as Beltre. Not to mention doing so with stabbing pain in his shoulder.

GRADE: A+

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HITTING

Click for full size. 2009 Mariners wOBA for June 2009. Source StatCorner.com

Griffey rebounds to a useful June. He still cannot hit for average, as his horrible line drive rate and BABIP (not unlucky) indicate, but he still finds ways to put the ball over the fence and poke some doubles that used to be home runs. His patience at the plate remained one of the best on the team and his resulting 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio helped propel him to an above average wOBA for the month.

I wrote last time that Adrian Beltre had a lower home run per fly ball rate than Mike Sweeney during May. Well, it happened again in June. Luckily, Beltre did smack eight doubles and a plethora of singles and his resulting .319/.347/.468 line was well above league average. Mike Sweeney also did not embarrass himself.

Branyan in May: .317/.412/.614 and 31 strikeouts to 17 walks. Branyan in June: .265/.376/.590 with 28 strikeouts to 16 walks. The inflated BABIP disappeared in June (.286) and Branyan simply responded by growing a longer penis and smacking one out of every five balls he put in the air (whether fly, line or pop up variety) over the wall. He even hit a triple! I would love for you to stick around Branyan because you have become one of my favorite players ever.

I have a fear that Chris Woodward, who sucks, is going to have a decent enough month of July while the Mariners fiddle about, and become the new Mike Morse, championed by those that ignore the tenets of statistical analysis. I guess there are worse things that could happen, like him sucking and the team tanking. Can we just find a real third baseman please?

Endy's bat will not be missed. More (read: some) Ryan Langerhans please!

44 hits, including nine for extra bases and two triples, for Ichiro and six walks gave him a .407/.439/.528 line in June, bettering his .377/.417/.515 May. The man could hit .400 in 2012 and I would not be surprised. Or he could lose his eye for bat control and be finished by 2011 and I would not be that surprised either. I do not know how to put a standard deviation on Ichiro and I have long since stopped caring. Just sit back and enjoy.

Remember how much Jeff Clement sucked at hitting in Seattle last year? Well, his .296 wOBA that year would be worth 27 more runs than Rob Johnson's current season line of .245. I do not care if Rob Johnson gets in his catcher's gear and fluffs up the entire pitching staff before each game to get them relaxed, Jeff Clement is more valuable in the measurable qualities of baseball.

Four home runs from Gutierrez gave him one of the higher home run per fly ball rates on the team. There is that power we have been hoping to see. Four other extra base hits and a solid .300 average gave Guti a .513 slugging on the month. Combined with his natural patience, his June wOBA of .380 was the third highest amongst regulars. Who else has to pinch themselves a couple times a day to remember that no, we do get to watch him and Ichiro in the outfield for the next four years, at least?

Jose Lopez, five home runs! :) His .592 slugging percentage was tops on the team in June. Even higher than Branyan's. One walk. :( His .325 OBP was sadly nowhere near the low on the team. Thank you Ronny Cedeno and your .204 OBP, which was actually higher than your slugging of .167.

In the end, it was not actually a great month. I have focused a bit on the positive, but Yuni, our two catchers and Ronny Cedeno were just terrible and wiped away the positives of everyone else. The team ended June with a .330 wOBA, around .335 after park-adjustments. That is a touch below average.

GRADE: C

Erik Bedard Pushed Up in Schedule

Matthew — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:12:08 -0000

From July 4th in Boston to July 7th in Seattle.

Wait a minute...

Happy Canada Day

Matthew — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:37:59 -0000

Which, of course, means hockey talk!

Canada Day is also the start of the free agent signing period and unlike in those shitty other sports, hockey makes hay right away.

ESPN NHL Free Agent Tracker

The big news so far:

-Dany Heatley is still a Sen (thank god, that Edmonton deal stunk)
-Nikolai Khabibulin is now an Oiler (4Y, $15M)
-Marian Hossa is now a Blackhawk
-The Canucks resigned the Sedin twins
-The Canucks lost Ohlund to Tampa Bay on a 7-year, $26.25M deal

In the craziness of the day, Marian Hossa's deal pays him more than the Sedin twins, combined!.

Hossa: 12 years, $62.8M
Sedin Twins: each got a 5-year, $30.5M deal

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

Matthew — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:23:30 -0000

Seattle: 39-36
New York: 43-32

SUMMARY

	MARINERS	YANKEES	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-45.9 (29th)	61.0 (2nd)	NYA
FIELDING (UZR)	22.6 (5th)	-17.6 (18th)	SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)	8.2 (12th)	-15.3 (24th)	SEA
BULLPEN (pRAA)	-13.6 (25th)	-11.1 (24th)	NYA
OVERALL(RAA)	-28.7	17.0	New York

Another stellar week for the defense, rising four more runs. Expect the trend to start reversing with Beltre removed from third base, where he had racked up an outstanding 8.7 UZR to date. His loss on defense will be felt greatly. Even with his horrid start to the season, his loss on offense is likely to be felt if the team goes with this retarded idea of Jose Lopez and/or Chris Woodward. God that is dumb.

Offense. eeeeeeep. Granted, the Yankees offense will likely diminish in perceived potency once we are able to gather enough of a sample size to properly determine the park factors on New Yankee Stadium, factors that are almost assuredly friendly to the hitters, and retroactively apply them. That does not do much to us now though.

We won a series on the road against the best team in baseball and our overall numbers shifted upward by 1.2 runs, most of that part of the week-long defensive update. Such is the result of being blown out in your one loss.

GAMES

Game 1: Brandon Morrow vs. Joba Chamberlain
Game 2: Jarrod Washburn* vs. Andy Pettitte*
Game 3: Jason Vargas* vs. CC Sabathia*

With a roughly equal number of pitches between 2008 and 2009 in the rotation, we have a decent comparison for Joba Chamberlain. The comparison is not pretty. His swinging strike rate has fallen from 10.7% to 7.9% and his ball percentage has risen from 36.3% to 41.2%. To counter that, his ground ball rate has risen a tad and the line drive rate has dropped, though the latter is certainly far more volatile.

Andy Pettitte's last three tRA+s: 107, 107 and 108. This year, it is down to 88 as his swinging strike rate has fallen a point and his ball% has risen a couple ticks. Correspondingly, the strikeouts are down and the walks are up, much like with Joba above. Unlike Joba, Pettitte's ground ball rate has actually fallen.

CC Sabathia posted tRAs of 2.96 and 2.95 the past two seasons. This year, it is up to 4.18. Notice a pattern going on here? Guess what has happened to his missed bat and ball rates? A supressed BABIP is helping to mark Sabathia's decline to the general public. Not a great sign for the first year of a seven-year, $161-million contract. Perhaps 500 innings pitched over the past two years are taking their toll? It really would not surprise me to see Sabathia miss a full year's worth of starts over the life of his Yankee contract.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Moonglow Weizenbock
Victory Brewing Company. Downington, PA

Think hefe's are a touch too light and bocks a touch too dark? Well then, combine them! This amber-colored beer comes packed with lots of head and lacing. The aroma is wheaty and perhaps honey with a faint raspberry fruit kick. On the taste, the malts come through and you get a slightly sugary note to match and complement the aroma rather than the thin and slightly acidic taste you normally get from fruity smelling beers.

Side note, many people here are fans of the Prima Pils. However, there's word that Victory's newest pils, Sapphire, is supposed to be even better. Keep an eye or an ear out for it.

Just a Reminder

Matthew — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:35:00 -0000

We are down to about 40 spots left on the USSM/LL event August 8th, so if you want to attend and haven't purchased a ticket yet, you might want to consider doing it rather soon. Just to give you an idea of how soon, Dave's last update was about five days ago and at the time he estimated there was ~100 slots open. Availability might not make it through the July 4 weekend.

Original Entry

Dave's Last Update (also incl ordering info)

Filling in at Third Base

Matthew — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:49:40 -0000

Option One:
1B Mike Carp
2B Jose Lopez/Chris Woodward
SS Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno
3B Russell Branyan

Option Two:
1B Russell Branyan
2B Chris Woodward/Ronny Cedeno
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Jose Lopez/Mike Morse

Option one is the more unconventional answer and certainly punts defense a bit, but let us have a look at the numbers.

DEFENSE

Option One: ?/-5/-10/-10. Total: -25
Option Two: -5/0/-10/-5. Total: -20

Based on UZR, with some question marks as to how Mike Carp and/or Jose Lopez would field given sample sizes, but some legitimately horrendous prospects of seeing Mike Morse on the field. All in all, it looks like it could be about a five run difference or so. And I feel like I am being conservative toward the more traditional option two here. Worth noting is that by moving Branyan over and inserting Carp at the corners, you leave Woodward and Cedeno both open to sub in at the middle infield positions. In the currently proposed Option Two, you are losing half of that flexibility.

The key here is how bad you think Branyan would be at third base. Branyan's actually been mostly a third baseman lately, logging almost 2.5x as many innings there than at first and logging significant time there as recently as last season. His career UZR/150 at 3B is -6.9. I've projected that all the way down to -10 to further worsen the case against.

OFFENSE

Mike Carp's projected wOBA: .323
Chris Woodward's projected wOBA: .287
Difference between two, over a full season: 20 runs

This operates under the assumption that the normal starter's offense does not suffer from moving positions. All numbers come from updated ZiPS projections.

Do it, Wak. I know you love defense. We love it too. But what's more important than defense is offense plus defense and there's just no way to justify starting three terrible middle infielders while you let Mike Carp and Jeff Clement go to waste somewhere.

Scrappy's Sense of Humor

Matthew — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:15:23 -0000

A list of current Mariners who are free agents at the end of the season:

David Aardsma: Currently lighting it up in the closing role. Legit sale piece. (Update: Aardsma is not a free agent at year's end. He is, however, still possible trade bait.)

Miguel Batista: Owed money and been merely average out of the pen.

Erik Bedard: Started off excellent, petered out a bit and currently is about to hit the one month mark on the disabled list.

Adrian Beltre: Even with his offense as horrid as it has been, his defense was still stellar and on pace for about 2.5 to 3 wins. He might have still fetched some interest at the deadline. And now he's on the shelf for two months.

Russell Branyan: Awesome. Legit sale piece.

Endy Chavez: Outstanding defense and expected level of offense would have made him a possible package piece to a team valuing outfield defense. Out for the year.

Ken Griffey Jr.: hahaha.

Mike Sweeney: hahaha.

Jarrod Washburn: Shiny ERA! Shiny ERA! Get him quick, other teams. Seriously, he's owed quite a bit of money still and his numbers are starting to slip. Compounding that are some balky back and knee issues. Fantastic.

Losing Beltre and the extended absence of Bedard makes this team much more unlikely to contend, even in the weak AL West. And if this team tanks over this difficult stretch of schedule and the front office decides to sell off their short term assets, they are now left with just a few pieces, Aardsma and Branyan, that might fetch much of anything somewhat valuable back in return.

Buy or sell was an interesting discussion a few weeks ago. Now it looks like the team is unlikely to be in position to do either. Well played, Scrappy. Well played.

Adrian Beltre to Have Surgery

Matthew — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:01:02 -0000

Well, that didn't last long. Larry LaRue with the word:

Just when hasn't been decided, but within the next week Beltre will have surgery that will likely keep him out of the Seattle Mariners lineup 6-8 weeks.

According to reports, Beltre is under a severe amount of pain every time he lifts his arm above shoulder height. That he was going to try and play through that for three months and change is a testament to just how strong willed the man is. Unfortunately for him and for the team, he is not going to be able to make it.

Based on the timeline, do not expect to see Adrian back until around the middle to end of August.

SB Nation User Blog: Matthew

7/3: Open Game Thread Part 2

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

SUMMARY

GAMES

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Report Card: Position Players, June

Record: 15-10, 39-37 overallPosition: 3rd, 3.5 games back of AnaheimPECOTA Playoff Odds: 23.0% (+9%)CoolStandings Odds: 14.9% (+10%)

DEFENSE

GRADE: A+

HITTING

GRADE: C

Erik Bedard Pushed Up in Schedule

Happy Canada Day

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

SUMMARY

GAMES

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Just a Reminder

Filling in at Third Base

Scrappy's Sense of Humor

Adrian Beltre to Have Surgery

Record: 15-10, 39-37 overall
Position: 3rd, 3.5 games back of Anaheim
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 23.0% (+9%)
CoolStandings Odds: 14.9% (+10%)