SBNation.com User Blog: MatthewH

My vision of next year.

MatthewH — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 03:48:25 -0000

This is both something that I think would really work and something that I think could really happen.

I think Chris Grant wants to build the bench entirely from the draft and castoffs. When Oklahoma City asked if CG was still interested in trades, Grant said "If you still have draft picks, we're still open for trading". This is in spite of the fact that we have eight draft picks over the next two years.

There is, I think, good logic to this. We've done very well with castoffs, like Livingston, Ellington, and Speights. I expect next year's bench to be Livingston, Ellington, Miles, Gee, and Zeller. Even if all we do is pick up two first round picks in the draft, that's still one starter and one bench player. By doing this, we continue to be extremely cheap- I don't know how much we'll end up paying Livingston, but the other four will make $10M combined. That's a damn cheap bench.

So, if we're really going to spend so little on the bench, and so little total (we'll be about $35M after resigning Livingston), where is that money going to go? At first, I thought there was no free agent worth getting- the best was Josh Smith, and he's simply not good enough to be worth a max contract. But there is one, and I think he's gettable, and in spite of having played a million years in the NBA, is only 27.

Dwight Howard.

D'Antoni's system isn't a good fit for him. The team is getting old. Kobe Bryant is considering retiring. And maybe most importantly, I don't think he's raking in the marketing dollars he thought he would. I think he's going to be on the market. And I think Chris Grant is planning to make a hard push for him. Why worry about getting Nerlins when we can just sign somebody's who's better?

Now, you may be thinking that this would keep us from getting Lebron James, but that isn't so. Varejao's contract has a team option in 2014-2015. If we think that we have a serious shot at Lebron, we can just decline Varejao's option and be under the cap. Or if not Lebron, then a different max contract.

Imagine a starting lineup of, let's say: Irving-Waiters-Porter-Thompson-Howard. With a bench of Livingston-Ellington-Gee-Varejao-Zeller plus Miles and another first round pick.

I think that's a championship team right there, if they're healthy. The max contract space and the extra draft picks in 2014 are just gravy.

The future is so bright I'm wearing shades.

This is both something that I think would really work and something that I think could really happen.

Dwight Howard.

Imagine a starting lineup of, let's say: Irving-Waiters-Porter-Thompson-Howard. With a bench of Livingston-Ellington-Gee-Varejao-Zeller plus Miles and another first round pick.

I think that's a championship team right there, if they're healthy. The max contract space and the extra draft picks in 2014 are just gravy.

The future is so bright I'm wearing shades.

For my own amusement- Kobe Bryant trade.

MatthewH — Sat, 30 Mar 2013 02:59:21 -0000

Suppose the Lakers barely make the playoffs, and get crushed in the first round.

The Lakers do the smart thing, and decide to blow up the team at the end of the year, rather than trying for a ring for one more year. Pau gets traded, Nash gets traded, most of the other players over 30 are dumped.

But then there's Kobe Bryant. He agrees to be traded, but only if he gets his full kicker, increasing his salary to a whopping $35M next year. That's the end of the contract, though. The Lakers offer us this player for one year in return for the Lakers getting their first round pick back. We can afford it, but it means that we can't sign any more free agents over the summer besides the ones already on our team (we're over the cap but below the luxury tax). In the summer of 2014, he'd come off the books, so we'd have lots of cap space for a title run.

I don't know why it would matter, but the Lakers would be re-signing Dwight for a max contract, and still be under the luxury tax threshold thanks to trading away Kobe. It's a huge difference for them- likely to be over $100M difference next year alone, and getting under the luxury tax means that they could go over in 2014 without the repeat offender penalty.

So, would you make this trade?

Suppose the Lakers barely make the playoffs, and get crushed in the first round. The Lakers do the smart thing, and decide to blow up the team at the end of the year, rather than trying for a ring for one more year. Pau gets traded, Nash gets traded, most of the other players over 30 are dumped. But then there's Kobe Bryant. He agrees to be traded, but only if he gets his full kicker, increasing his salary to a whopping $35M next year. That's the end of the contract, though. The Lakers offer us this player for one year in return for the Lakers getting their first round pick back. We can afford it, but it means that we can't sign any more free agents over the summer besides the ones already on our team (we're over the cap but below the luxury tax). In the summer of 2014, he'd come off the books, so we'd have lots of cap space for a title run. I don't know why it would matter, but the Lakers would be re-signing Dwight for a max contract, and still be under the luxury tax threshold thanks to trading away Kobe. It's a huge difference for them- likely to be over $100M difference next year alone, and getting under the luxury tax means that they could go over in 2014 without the repeat offender penalty. So, would you make this trade?

Poll

Would you trade for one year of Kobe Bryant?

Yes! I'd happily give the Lakers their pick to see Kobe on this team.

19 votes

Meh. Maybe if it was a second round pick, or Omri Casspi.

4 votes

I don't want him period.

11 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Shaun Livingston and the Orlando game

MatthewH — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 06:13:54 -0000

With 4:19 left in the first quarter and the Cavaliers up 10, Waiters was replaced with Shaun Livingston, who played shooting guard (Irving stayed in). The Magic outscored the Cavaliers 11-2.

For one glorious minute to start the second quarter, Shaun played point guard. Then he picked up his third foul, and Waiters played PG for the next 5 minutes.

With 4:36 left in the third quarter and the Cavaliers up 10, Waiters was replaced with Shaun Livingston, who played shooting guard (no, this is not a repeat). The Magic outscored the Cavaliers 11-7 during this time.

Looks like the Cavaliers were testing Shaun to see how he'd play at shooting guard. His stint in the first quarter was a disaster- nobody had any idea where they were supposed to be, and the Magic swarmed Irving. The third quarter, the last 2:28 was Irving/Livingston/Gee/Walton/Speights. The only reason why we were merely outscored 7-1 during that time is because Orlando missed some easy shots.

According to 82games.com, it looks like the Irving-Livingston combination is about 20% of Shaun's minutes- a little under 4 minutes per game, and normally they're a little above average together (compared to when they aren't together). Certainly, it's not a train wreck like it was this game.

I can understand why the Cavaliers would be tempted to make a three-guard rotation of Irving, Waiters, and Livingston, and I'll be watching from now on to see how it goes. Based on what little I've seen of it, I'd rather have Ellington, Miles, or Gee play shooting guard when Waiters is out.

With 4:19 left in the first quarter and the Cavaliers up 10, Waiters was replaced with Shaun Livingston, who played shooting guard (Irving stayed in). The Magic outscored the Cavaliers 11-2. For one glorious minute to start the second quarter, Shaun played point guard. Then he picked up his third foul, and Waiters played PG for the next 5 minutes. With 4:36 left in the third quarter and the Cavaliers up 10, Waiters was replaced with Shaun Livingston, who played shooting guard (no, this is not a repeat). The Magic outscored the Cavaliers 11-7 during this time. Looks like the Cavaliers were testing Shaun to see how he'd play at shooting guard. His stint in the first quarter was a disaster- nobody had any idea where they were supposed to be, and the Magic swarmed Irving. The third quarter, the last 2:28 was Irving/Livingston/Gee/Walton/Speights. The only reason why we were merely outscored 7-1 during that time is because Orlando missed some easy shots. According to 82games.com, it looks like the Irving-Livingston combination is about 20% of Shaun's minutes- a little under 4 minutes per game, and normally they're a little above average together (compared to when they aren't together). Certainly, it's not a train wreck like it was this game. I can understand why the Cavaliers would be tempted to make a three-guard rotation of Irving, Waiters, and Livingston, and I'll be watching from now on to see how it goes. Based on what little I've seen of it, I'd rather have Ellington, Miles, or Gee play shooting guard when Waiters is out.

Poll: would you do this trade?

MatthewH — Sun, 27 Jan 2013 13:24:05 -0000

The day after the season ends, Miami offers us Lebron James for our #5 pick and the Miami, Memphis, and Golden State first round draft picks we've collected. Lebron agrees to sign a Larry Bird extension right before he's traded. I'd rather not get into why Miami would do this. If we were offered the trade, should we take it? Personally, I would be inclined to- I think this is a championship team with the addition of Lebron, and I don't think that we'll get him if we wait until 2014

Poll

The day after the season, trade 4 1st round picks for Lebron James.

Yes

72 votes

No

25 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed

Playing Varejao and Thompson together.

MatthewH — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 02:16:09 -0000

Some people think that Thompson isn't going to be a good center, and some think that Varejao should be traded. I disagree on both counts, and that's in part because I think they'll work very well together.

On offense, Varejao's best move is being the pick in the pick-and-roll (or pick and pop, or whatever). He has a good 15 foot shot, and isn't all that tall or athletic. When he works with Kyrie, he will set the pick, and then either head for the hoop or take a pass and shoot it. This keeps him from wrestling inside too much.

In contrast, Tristan's not going to hit anything outside the paint. His job will be to stay just outside the paint. If he's left open, there'll be a quick pass and a slam. If he's not left open, his job is to gather offensive rebounds and put 'em back in or pass them back out. He certainly will have the physical tools for it, if he bulks up (and I can guarantee he will). The problem for him will be mental- when to pass it back out instead of shooting it. He hasn't had a real pre-season yet, and he's not being used properly this year, but I have faith in him. It's not rocket science, after all- Varejao's job requires more mental work. Luckily, Varejao has a very high basketball IQ.

On defense, their jobs are very similar. Once again, Varejao is the elbow-out guy, who guards big guys who are well outside the paint, and occasionally doubles the man with the ball. He's shown he can do this very well. It takes a lot of energy, but it isn't as physical as 'bumping uglies'.

In contrast, Tristan needs to work the inside. Against some teams, he does very well at this. Against others, he gets pushed around too much. He's also getting those damn 3 second lane technicals, which I believe is mostly caused by him getting pushed. I think he's strong for his weight already, and will be able to hold his own inside once he gains weight. At that point, his athleticism will get him steals, blocks, and rebounds.

Having an elbow-in guy like Tristan combined with an elbow-out guy like Varejao should work well together. Each one has a weakness that's the other guy's strength. Varejao can roam while Tristan stays home. Together, I think they'll work even better than each one did individually. Kyrie and Varejao can play the two-man game, while Tristan's good enough on offense that opponents can't cheat off him. All we need to add to it is a wing or two who can reliably score when their man cheats and tries to help out against Kyrie and Varejao. Luckily, we have lots of cap space and a nice pick or three in the draft. Getting that wing should be very doable this summer.

Poll

Should we trade Varejao and/or Tristan for whatever we can get?

Both

5 votes

Just Andy

5 votes

Just Tristan

1 votes

Neither

35 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

Rebuttal on drafting a wing.

MatthewH — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:27:33 -0000

Do we need a wing? Absolutely. But I'd much rather draft a big man.

The first question is, will there be a good big man available when we draft? I think it is extremely likely. Keep in mind, last year two of the top five draft picks were spent on European big men, and most people (including me) haven't even looked at Europe yet. I don't want another 19 year old rookie unless it's a phenom type like Irving or He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named. And that's a major part of the equation. If we want to maximize the Irving Window, to steal a term from somewhere else, now is the time to get older rookies and younger vets who can play together.

That leads into the second question- we clearly need both a big man and a wing.

Do we need a wing? Absolutely. But I'd much rather draft a big man.

That leads into the second question- we clearly need both a big man and a wing.

Luckily, we need have both quite a bit of money and a good draft pick. Are we better off spending a draft pick on a wing and getting a big man in free agency, or a big man in the draft and a wing in free agency?

Part of that can be seen in our roster. At guard, we have Irving, Sessions, Parker, Boobie, and Gee. The dropoff from Irving-Parker to Sessions-Gee is almost nonexistent, and we still have Boobie. On the other hand, after Varejao, Jamison, and Tigger, we have...Erden? Samuels? Hollins? Harangody? The dropoff in big men is huge, and for guards it's a lot lower.

That gets me to the second point. Would you rather get a Wilson Chandler or Aaron Affalo type in free agency, or a Glen Davis type? Only two power forwards in the top 40 free agents last year changed teams, and they were Glen Davis and David West. For Centers, there were three- Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, and Kwame Brown. Pretty slim pickings in free agency. Seven shooting guards in the top 40 changed teams. Competition is much higher for good big men in free agency.

So, do we actually need three good big men? Heck yes. Most big men go 36 minutes in the playoffs or less. This means your third big man can get almost as much time as the first two. Sometimes it seems like the big man off the bench is actually more important, as he can support his teammates on both offense and defense.

In short, we need both, but a big guy will be easier to get in the draft and be better for us, both in the short and in the long run.

Dwight Howard Poll, for my amusement only.

MatthewH — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 02:45:13 -0000

As everybody knows, Dwight Howard is a fantastic player. I also really liked how after the game tonight, he hunted down Andy and had some kind words and a hug for him.

As everybody also knows, Dwight Howard has said he won't be on the Magic next season. What was surprising was that he said he'd be willing to join the Bulls because of Derrick Rose.

So, here is my idle question:

Suppose that Orlando offered us Dwight for our first round unprotected pick and Antawn Jamison. Furthermore, suppose that thanks to Kyrie, Dwight was willing to sign an extension with us for a supermax contract.

Would you make the trade?

As everybody knows, Dwight Howard is a fantastic player. I also really liked how after the game tonight, he hunted down Andy and had some kind words and a hug for him.

As everybody also knows, Dwight Howard has said he won't be on the Magic next season. What was surprising was that he said he'd be willing to join the Bulls because of Derrick Rose.

So, here is my idle question:

Would you make the trade?

Poll

Would you trade our unprotected 1st round pick for Dwight Howard, if he agreed to extend with us for a max contract?

Heck yes.

50 votes

Maybe if we got some less in return.

2 votes

Heck no.

6 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

Known Unknowns- week 1.

MatthewH — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 18:52:28 -0000

So far it looks to me like this is the roster for next year:

Point Guard: Irving, Sessions

Shooting Guard: ?, Gibson

Small Forward: ?, Casspi

Power Forward: Varejao, ?

Center: T. Thompson, Samuels.

I'm unhappy with Casspi so far. He doesn't look like a starter on a good team to me. Sure, he'll probably get better as the season goes along, but as of now he's a bench player.

Boobie's problem has always been defense...until this year. Now he's guarding shooting guards and looking good doing it. That, combined with deadly three point shooting, makes him a valuable member of the rotation. Even so, I don't think he's a starter on a good team- he can't create his own shot, and I'm not eager to see him go against an All Star.

Why do I have Varejao and Tigger switched? Varejao has a lot of trouble guarding 7 footers. He can't jump much (or at all right now thanks to his ankle), and his jump shot isn't as bad as people claim. Tristan doesn't look tall enough to play center, but his mad hops more than makes up for it. When he puts on some muscle (which I guarantee he will do in the offseason), he'll be the ideal center: stopping big guys, moving over to help with the smaller guys, and slam dunks and putbacks on the other side of the floor.

So far it looks to me like this is the roster for next year:

Point Guard: Irving, Sessions

Shooting Guard: ?, Gibson

Small Forward: ?, Casspi

Power Forward: Varejao, ?

Center: T. Thompson, Samuels.

I'm unhappy with Casspi so far. He doesn't look like a starter on a good team to me. Sure, he'll probably get better as the season goes along, but as of now he's a bench player.

When I look at this, the obvious draft pick would be for another power forward. Ideally, you need 3 big men playing 30 minutes each with a fourth guy to take up the remainder and back up in case somebody gets hurt. Centers don't translate well to the NBA: they're a crap shoot. A college center may never have guarded a 7-footer, and it's very unlikely he guarded a guy like Hibbert. In addition, the NBA game is 100 games in 200 days if you make it far into the playoffs. It's tough to know if a college center can take that kind of abuse. On the other hand, Power Forwards are already playing against guys who are 6'8", and the season isn't as wearing on them as it is for the really tall guys. I don't like spending lottery picks on centers, except the occasional guy from Europe who has had experience against big guys.

Well, you say, why not shooting guard or small forward? Unless there's a guy like He Who Shall Not Be Named in the draft, I'd rather get those in free agency. There's always a pile of them, and they tend not to get max contracts like the point guards and centers. Obviously, if there's a very good one of those where we pick, we should take one.

As far as WHICH Power Forward, I'll give you a hint: he goes to Ohio State. Here's a list of the likely 1st round draft picks:

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

And here's a list of the 2012 free agents. I still hope the Cavaliers put in a good bid for Wilson Chandler this year: he's a restricted free agent, but we should be able to make him an offer that's bigger than Atlanta's. Then he'd have a couple of months to work with the team.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2012-nba-free-agents/

Who would you pick up?

Piling on...five yards, first down.

MatthewH — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 22:48:00 -0000

I am getting so, so, so tired of people piling onto Lebron James for switching to the Heat.

I'm not talking about Cleveland fans. Hey, if you've been following the Cavs for two decades and you want to say that Lebron James' move was halfway between Cain and Benedict Arnold, that's cool. I can deal with hyperbole.

What gets me is the media. The very same media that has been pushing Lebron to do this for a decade castigates him for actually listening to them.

I am getting so, so, so tired of people piling onto Lebron James for switching to the Heat.

What gets me is the media. The very same media that has been pushing Lebron to do this for a decade castigates him for actually listening to them.

Let me give two examples, from Yahoo Sports:

1. Adrian Wojnarowski's piece on how this all started in 2006:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=ArmhZfJA6L1QZ1o3SHjeitO8vLYF?slug=aw-heatfreeagency071610

Funny thing about this article. I don't think he woke up on July 16th, 2010 and had a revelation that Lebron James was almost kicked off the Olympic team for being an ass. No, he waits until Lebron is already being derided, and THEN he writes the article, years after the event.

2. Kelly Dwyer's piece on the kids selling lemonade to pay for Gilbert's fine:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Cleveland-kids-push-lemonade-to-help-pay-Cavalie;_ylt=AnYAIuDj8R02XkS5Qi_zsE3YrYZ4?urn=nba,256512

You want to know who "enabled" Lebron to be "the distateful type that he's become", Mr. Dwyer? Go look in a mirror. This whole thing has been media driven. If people like Wajnarowski and Dwyer had written about this in 2008, instead of waiting until now, we'd still have Lebron.

Lebron has this horrible tendency to push and push and push until somebody pushes back. Kind of like, well, every other person on this planet. When he pushed too hard in the Olympics, and Nike said quit it, he quit it. If he'd been getting bad press about his behavior and friends from the start, he'd have changed. Instead, it was all these wonderful articles about how perfect Lebron was.

The worst thing that any of these writers said about Lebron before he switched teams was that he celebrated too much. Celebrated too much! Who cares! Was this other stuff not newsworthy until now? Why wait on this?

Ever met a topper? If you're telling a story about how you broke your leg, this idiot has to interrupt with a story about how he broke all four limbs. Lose a dear uncle, and he has to interrupt about how he lost both parents in the same day. Well, that's what this feels like. Cleveland is mourning the loss of one of the greatest players to play for Cleveland, and the national media is horning in, trying to make it that it wasn't just about Cleveland.

Well, it was just about Cleveland. If you're a Knicks fan, you're going to see Lebron play for a rival, just a different one. He didn't die. He didn't retire. If you feel sympathy for us, great. If you think Lebron was a jerk, fine. If you write a 14 paragraph screed about how Lebron was nasty to the Knicks...um, no. Your timing is terrible.

These guys had seven years to write about Lebron. To write about this stuff now that it's 'safe' is cowardice. I don't appreciate people piling onto my grief, telling me how horrible Lebron is now, when you knew all along but kept it to yourself. Lebron didn't kill anyone, didn't trap a 17 year old in the bathroom in order to rape her, didn't train dogs to kill each other for sport, didn't set up a hit on his girlfriend, didn't try to get past airport security with a gun, didn't push illegal drugs onto rookie teammates, and didn't charge into the stands to fight with a fan. Lebron was just an insensitive jerk. That's it. The media needs to quit horning in so we can grieve in peace.