How many W's in Pedro's arm?
posted: Wednesday, March 14, 2007

LAKELAND, Fla. -- A high-ranking official of an American League team told me this winter he doesn't think Pedro Martinez will win 10 more games the rest of his career.

Yeah, that's 10.

As in: Not even as many as Mark (Unemployed 'Til Last Week) Redman won last year.

Does anyone have a subscription to ESPN Insider, and if so, can you tell us if this article has anything worth reporting?

Many here know I have a man-crush on Pedro and will be chomping at the bit to see him pitch again. But mainly I want him to be healthy. I think the prediction above is ridiculous. But on the other hand, I think even Pedro himself would say he's all about the team, and even if he personally never wins another game, that would be OK, as long as the Mets win his starts. All one has to do is look at Pedro's May of last year to see how easy it is to get an undeserved N/D or an L.

I'm sure the Mets held back this info until last night's ceremonies were over. Anyway, here's a snippet:

Glavine, 40, has experienced coldness in a finger on his pitching hand, and the New York Mets left-hander is scheduled to undergo medical tests next week in hopes of finding the cause, sources told the New York Daily News.

Glavine, a 287-game winner, is scheduled to have a CT scan Monday and an angiogram on Wednesday, the newspaper reported. Doctors are unsure whether Glavine's problem is related to a blood clot or possibly a "knot" in an artery near his left shoulder.

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2555246

This sounds ominous, but I'll be saying prayers for Tommy and hoping it's nothing serious -- and not just because the team needs him.

So, Glavine's next start was supposed to be Tuesday, right? If he's having an angiogram on Wednesday, I don't see how he can pitch on Tuesday. Anyway, get better Tom, and as far as the Mets go, I'm really really grateful we have a 14 game lead at the moment.

Well, I feel pretty low right now about our team, so I had to lift my spirits by telling you that Amazin' Avenue is one of my favorite sites (along with Metsgeeks). Not only do I appreciate the analysis, but also the people who frequent the site. The criticism is constructive, and in the game threads, when you folks get mad, you criticize the play, for the most part, rather than the player. And when you've had your fill of a certain player, you talk about it in terms of their baseball talent (or lack thereof) rather than attack the person, i.e. the human being. I also thought it was cool that a lot of people here are fed up with the booing of Kaz Matsui. I've never believed in booing your own players. Show them continued support, and they just might come out of their funk. (I'm not saying that will happen with Kaz; just hoping.) Also, you're all civil to each other, which is very refreshing. I also like the diaries. Great job, Eric! If you let in kids under 13, I think I'll let my son join. If he learns new curse words, that's OK. He's bound to learn them eventually anyway. (grin)

Well, after his start against the Brewers, giving up only 3 hits but 5 runs, Pedro said he felt "draggy." That start was a little weird, as he looked excellent except for the two innings in which the Brewers scored off of him. Today, 5 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned. On the one hand, I didn't like what I saw out there today. On the other hand, I suppose you could say it was mainly one batter (Grudzielanek) that really nailed him. But I think that would be rationalizing away a poor start. He definitely didn't have his "A" game today.

Last season, which was certainly uncharacteristic, after 8 starts, Pedro's ERA was 3.73; he'd had 6 quality starts, and the Red Sox were 5-1 in those. Pedro had 2 bad starts (one against Baltimore, the other against Texas). One of the quality starts was a game against the Yankess (whose offense was struggling at the time), in which he went 7 innings and gave up no runs.

This season, after 8 starts, Pedro's ERA is 3.38. He's had 5 quality starts, and the Mets are 4-1 in those. Only Looper (in the 1st game of the season) prevented that from being a 5-0 record in Pedro's quality starts. He's had one start that I'd call mediocre (against Atlanta), where he gave up 4 runs, and we lost. The start against the Brewers was weird. It's hard for me to call it bad, since his command/control looked really good, i.e. he was hitting his spots, throwing a lot of strikes, and innings 1-3, 5-6 were perfect. I read one story in which the writer said something along the lines that few pitchers could look so good while giving up 5 runs. Still, you certainly don't expect him to give up 5 runs to the Brewers. But at least the Mets won that one.

I'd characterize today's start as bad. Not a total stinker or a blowout, but not what I want to see from Pedro. Like last year, he's starting to give up too many homers. Take away those 2 homers today, and we get a win.

Let's look at 2003. That year, Pedro only gave up 7 home runs all season. After 8 starts, his ERA was 3.15. He'd had 6 quality starts and 2 bad ones, one really bad in which Grady Little left him in to give up 10 ER. In his 6 quality starts, he had 1 game in which he gave up no runs period (against Tampa Bay), and 2 other starts where he gave up no earned runs (once against Tampa, once against Texas).

One of my concerns this year is that he hasn't had a game yet where the opponent hasn't scored. That's not Pedro-like. Not that a 3.38 ERA is bad after 8 starts. But considering he's given up so few hits, you'd think his ERA would be microscopic, and we'd be 8-0 in his starts, assuming everyone else (bullpen, offense, defense) does their job. I'd obviously prefer that those hits be harmless and not score any runs. As it stands, we're now 5-3 in Pedro starts. That's very good, but 6-2 is what I would have expected, again, assuming everyone else on the team does their job.

Again, I'm not trying to slam Pedro. He's been my all-time favorite pitcher for awhile now. I don't expect him to be perfect, but I doubt that he's happy with his performance today. Let's hope he can do a better job of keeping runners from scoring and keeping the ball in the park.

If you haven't already read Damien Heath's brief study over at metsgeek.com, it's very interesting and relevant to this post.

P.S. I may be prematurely concerned -- after all, it's only 8 starts. Mainly I'm wondering what the rest of you think. Also, I realize I focused a lot on ERA, and there are many other stats/factors associated with evaluating pitching performance. But this wasn't intended to be an official analysis. Like I said, I'm just wondering what others think.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is that I think Piazza is way better behind the plate in many ways than the Red Sox's Varitek, i.e. pitch calling, pitcher-catcher communication, helping the pitcher keep a good rhythm going, and so on. I watched lots of Pedro's games while he was with the Sox  (I've been following him for quite awhile), and Varitek moves around so much, it seemed to me that he would sometimes give away location to the batter at key moments. Varitek has an annoying propensity to stand up to catch high fastballs. Talk about wasted pitches. Almost every batter would see those coming. Prior to Pedro's injury, Varitek's constant moving around didn't seem to matter since Pedro was a power pitcher and just blew people away left and right. But when he came back from his injury, he lost some of his power, changed his style to adapt and finessed a lot. Under those circumstances, I think Varitek's style of catching hurt Pedro. Now Pedro has regained a lot of his strength. He can blow fastballs right by batters again, and he has tremendous movement on his pitches. He can also finesse by changing speeds and hitting his spots. Despite the three supposed wild pitches (which Pedro said were really only two) last week, Pedro is showing great control, IMO. As for Mike, he has a lot of stillness as a batter, and he has that same quality as a catcher. You don't see him jumping around at the last minute behind the plate. He presents Pedro with a target, but not so it tips off any batters as to what's coming. As noted in another post, Mike said he's still learning how to catch Pedro. I fully expect them to just get better and better as a battery.