SB Nation User Blog: McCleak

Trade Machine nonsense

McCleak — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:03:32 -0000

In lieu of trying to find good in blowout after blowout, I thought I might put together a reasonable trade for the Timberwolves to even things out. Below is a Sacramento/Memphis/Minnesota trade.

Sacramento gets:

Corey Brewer

Steven Hunter

The Memphis' second round pick owed to the Timberwolves

Memphis gets:

Al Jefferson

Utah's first round pick owed to the Timberwolves

Sacramento's second round pick

Minnesota gets:

Marc Gasol

Rudy Gay

Kevin Martin

Notes:

Memphis takes on a few more dollars this year, but gets rid of their backcourt controversey, and doesn't trades a young big man on a short contract for a comprable young big man on a longer contract, one that they can build around. It basically takes them out of the FA market for next year, but it's not like they were going to use that cap space anyway.

Sacramento saves $3.1 million this year, and $6.7 million next year. It drops them down to $34.6 million in salary for 2010-2011. If you approximate the cap holds for the first rounder at $1.9 million (the #10) then the Kings would have $36.5 million in cap space used, and the Kings would have $18.5 million for free agents, assuming a $55 million cap. Additionally, they also get to avoid a burgeoning controversy at shooting guard.

Minnesota spend an additional $1.2 million this year. They get a center in Gasol, a shooting guard in Martin, and a small forward in Gay. But for the 2010 offseason, they drop their actual salaries from $35.1 million to $32.1 million. However, the cap holds become tricky. Assuming the Wolves would get the #4 pick and the #13 pick they would then have $7.2 million in draft holds, plus an additional $9.8 for Rudy Gay ($17.0 million total). If you add that to the $32.1 million, then the Wolves would have $49.1 million in used cap space, or $5.9 in salary cap room. However, the Wolves could also do something like renounce Ryan Gomes and Nathan Jawai's rights, freeing them up to $11.2 million in cap room.

So what do you think? Does this put the Wolves on the right track, or does doom them to a half-decade of .500 ball? Would it be worth it just to set this season right? And could Sacramento be convinced of the benefits of having a massive hoard of cap space?

Desmond Mason To Leave The Thunder

McCleak — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 02:38:20 -0000

Mason won't return to Thunder

Is it just me or would this be a really good pickup for a single season? I know he's looking for a multi-year deal, but those seem to be gone at this point. I think he's exact the type of player that the Wolves need for a season, and could add some really solid perimeter D to the team if he's paired with Brewer on the court.

3-Way Holiday Trade!

McCleak — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 18:53:15 -0000

I figured while we're all waiting for some news or another to break on Rubio, we might as well engage in our favorite pastime, speculation about possible trades. Last week, Chad Ford mentioned in a chat that the Kings are also big fans of Johnny Flynn. Based on that, here a Minnesota/Sacramento/Utah trade I came up with:

Sacramento

Sends Kenny Thomas to Utah

Sends Kevin Martin to Minnesota

Receives the rights to Johnny Flynn from Minnesota

Receives Andrei Kirilenko from Utah

Utah

Sends Andrei Kirilenko to Sacramento

Sends the New York Knicks' 2010 first round pick to Minnesota

Receives Kenny Thomas from Utah

Receives Brian Cardinal from Minnesota

Receives Craig Smith from Minnesota

Minnesota

Sends the rights to Johnny Flynn to Sacramento

Sends Craig Smith to Utah

Sends Brian Cardinal to Utah

Receives Kevin Martin from Sacramento

Receives the New York Knicks' 2010 first round pick from Utah

Why Sacramento does this:

They get better at the 3 and the 1, while reducing the years that have an 8 digit contract on the books (Kirilenko's contract ends after 2010-2011, Martin's ends after 2012-2013). In terms of productions, Martin is +5.5 on PER relative to his team at SG (5.0 versus -0.5), while Kirilenko would be +7.7 at SF for the Kings. It also makes Nocioni redundant, so they can trade his contract either space of functional shooting guard later on.

Why Utah does this:

It clears their cap by $16,451,250 for the next season, and allows them a reasonable chance to keep Millsap. It also means that if/when they lose Boozer, they have a good young replacement in Smith. The real value is that even if they extend Millsap and Smith, they'd still have a lot of money to go after free agents in 2010 (probably around $15-20 million worth of cap space).

Why Minnesota does this:

They get Kevin Martin, meaning that they have an above average player at the 2, 4, and 5. They fix their roster imbalance, and should make a definite step forward in terms of of overall team skill. It gives the team another first round pick next year, almost certainly in the top 10. It gives the team an identity as an offensive force, and means the Wolves should have enough free space to pay a bit more than the midlevel in 2010 for a free agent, if needed. It also gives everyone who is being viewed through their potential a chance to prove themselves. Love, and Telfair get their minutes, as does Ellington while playing as Martin's backup. Jefferson and Brewer get a year to prove they're back and ready to contribute to the team. Here's how the team would look for the next season:

1 - Rubio/Telfair/Brown

2 - Martin/Ellington

3 - Gomes/Brewer

4 - Love/Songalia/Pecherov

5 - Jefferson/Thomas/Madsen

When combined with the 1-4 draft picks next year, the Wolves could look very good in a few years.

Now, some questions:

Is Martin worth it? Do you think he is overpaid? Do you think the Wolves could get better value for their expiring contracts?

Would you do this if Rubio was staying in Europe for a year? Permanently?

How much better do you think this makes the Wolves? 30 win team? 40?

Quick Kahn Hits

McCleak — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:32:48 -0000

First, in what is an utter non-shock, the players are already walking back their unconditional support of McHale:

"We have to put Mac out of our heads right now," Jefferson said. "I talked to some of the guys today. In a way, we're glad it's over with."

I'm sure will see more quotes like this soon.

Also, for those of you with ESPN Insider, there's a story about the Spurs' drafting abilities that relies heavily on quotes from Kahn. They're very effusive; hopefully he'll use them as a guidepost for making a front office.

New Game: Build A Better Timberwolves

McCleak — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:17:17 -0000

Considering the doldrums the Wolves are in right now, and how we can't do anything but wait for a the draft to come around, I figured we should play a game of Build A Better Timberwolves. Here's how it works: go onto ESPN's website and hit up the trade machine. Then, try and work the best trades you can, as judged by the increase in wins per game that pops up at the successful trade screen. Don't worry about having a full roster (if there are 5 guys left, that's fine), but the one rule is that you have to be able to field a reasonable team (so a Duncan/Jefferson/Garnett/Howard/Oden lineup won't cut it). Then save the trade, and post it here so we can join in the fun. My first attempt is after the jump

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=qngbn9

I traded Mike Miller and Mark Madsen for Tony Parker, Randy Foye for Brandon Roy, and Gomes, Smith, and Telfair for Caron Butler. Increase in wins: 21.

On the draft

McCleak — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 03:34:24 -0000

First, the more I look at the draft, the less I like the Wolves choices with their first pick. If they stay at the 5 they're in a complete and utter crapshoot. With that in mind, I would like to discuss Tyreke Evans. First, I think people should stop by Draft Express and compare Tyreke Evans and Derrick Rose. They're very comprable players, right down to their listed strengths and weaknesses. In fact, the only areas of noticable difference are: 1) Rose has better assist numbers than Evans. That's pretty straight-forward though I'd note that Evans didn't play PG for the half (except for that half-season, Evans has always played PG, so the learning curve isn't as steep as, say, Randy Foye's); 2) Evans has much better steal and rebound numbers, and seems like a noticably better defender; and 3) Evans has SG height and length.

Now, think for a moment what the Wolves would be like if they had someone who could, potentially, be a stronger defender at the 1 and the 2. Now, add him in with Brewer, so that Brewer guards the best shooters while Evans guards the PG and helps Foye (or hopefully Josh Childress, but probably Randy Foye) with Foye. Doesn't that solve a lot of the perimeter defensive problems? Wouldn't that give them a lot of flexibility on floor, and the chance to actually push advantageous matchups in the backcourt? Hell, is it possible that Jefferson and Love would look a bit less foolish guarding the pivot if the perimeter didn't leak like a sieve? Finally, I would like to point out that Evans' increase in production occurred when he took over at point. Also, that's when Memphis went on it's strong end of year win-streak leading into the tournament.

As for DeMar DeRozan, take a look at Draft Express' best and worst case scenarios. Make sure you have a garbage basket handy in case you feel ill.

Finally, I was wondering if someone could put John Bryant into the Hoopus score system and report the results? I realize he comes out of a weaker conference, but looking at his numbers and size, I have to think he has second-round steal potential possibility.

Trade Possibility

McCleak — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 01:29:50 -0000

Following up on a mentioned trade in the Phoenix thread, doesn't it make a ton of sense for the Timberwolves to trade for Tyson Chandler? You get excellent young interior D with a price tag that doesn't preclude moving him if it becomes a necessity. For the Hornets, it reduces their price tag quite considerably, and if I was the Wolves I would definitely throw in a pick of two to grease the wheels. Allow me to offer something on behalf of the Wolves

To Minnesota:

Tyson Chandler
Ryan Bowen

To New Orleans:

Jason Collins
Calvin Booth
Rashad McCants
Boston's 1st round pick
The best of the 3 second rounders we have this year

He's why the Wolves do it: Tyson Chandler. He's had injuries this year, but if comes back next season ready to go, the Wolves have an amazing 3-man front court in place for the next 5-7 years. This lets you focus on finding a 3 and a point to fill out the team.

Here's why New Orleans does it: It saves money this year, and wipes out the rest of Chandler's contract. It nets you a look at McCants, a first rounder, a not bad second rounder, and some bodies for the front (if you're trading Chandler, you obviously want quantity over quality in the front).It also costs less this season, doesn't cost anything after that unless you want it to (except the first), and guarantees the Chandler won't haunt you in the playoffs this year. If that's not enough, the Wolves should be able to swap in the Utah pick for the Boston one.

To finish, I'll add that I think this necessitates the Wolves trading off Mike Miller and Craig Smith for expiring contracts. If they did that, then they'd have around $10 million in cap room this offseason, enough to bring in a solid 3 (*coughcoughJoshChildresscoughcough*). In this situation, the Wolves just need to start praying that Rubio or Curry falls into their lap. If it does, they're set. If not, then they just need an upgrade at point and they're ready to roll.

What says the rest of Hoopus?

Trade Watch Suggestions

McCleak — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:21:48 -0000

With the trade deadline approaching, I figure it would behoove us to look at moves the Wolves could conceivably make in order to improve this team. Now, the caveat with these is that I don't think the Wolves should necessarily look at something for this season. It would take a rather larger miracle for the Wolves to make the postseason, and they'd probably get waxed in the first round anyway. But they could make some moves to get things set for the next seaon.

As has been discussed here several times, the two weakest positions for the Wolves right now are point guard and small forward. Now, contrary to that sentence, I will say that I think the Wolves have solid depth at those two positions. Gomes, Telfair, Brewer, and Telfair are all very fine second-string options for those positions. I would go further and say the only depth the Wolves are missing is a 7' swatter, as you can add Mike Miller, Randy Foye at point, and Craig Smith at the 4 as very capable backups. So the Wolves need to get some solid starters. But how?

First, let's look at the point guards. The first target on the list is Mike Conley. He's been having a rough year, as Mayo has emerged as the young face of the Grizzlies, and he's being made redundant by the mangement and/or OJ Mayo's insistence that the #3 pick plays the point. On top of that, his numbers have been dropping this year. But those are misleading numbers, and hiding the sucess he's been having. First, the sucess; Conly is hitting 39% of his threes, takes a very solid 4 points per 100 possessions off opponents' offense, he's a plus rebounder, and has a very good ast:to ratio. If he drives to the hoop a bit more, and steps out on the long twos, his efg% should improve nicely and he should see the line a lot more. Now, the problems is that his points and assists have dropped like a rock this year. That's the opposite of what you want to see in a point guard, but there is a very simple reason for this: OJ Mayo.

For those that remember, I spent a lot of time early in the season banging on about how OJ Mayo got his numbers through and absurdly high number of touches. But taking it from a Wolves perspective, I never considered where he was getting those numbers. It turns out it was coming at Conley's expense. Conley currently has a usage % (that's the percentage of plays that occur on the court the player is involved in, for the non-uber nerds in the crowd) of 16.0. Let me read off some known names that are between 15.5 and 16.5, and you tell me what they have in common: Delonte West. Trevor Ariza. Corey Brewer. Wally Szczerbiak. Sasha Vujacic. Al Horford. Sean Marks. Vladimir Radmanovic. Brandon Rush. Figure out what they all have in common? That's right, they're not point guards, nor are the on the court to create offense for others. There are three other point guards in that range. Two (Mario Chalmers and Chris Quinn) of them play for Miami, whose use of Dwayne Wade seems to be Memphis' template for using Mayo, and the other (Derek Fischer) plays in the triangle offense, which has no need for a traditional point. And to further prove the Mayo Affect, Conley has played 805 of his minutes with him. I think there's little doubt that Conley will improve, possibly vastly and quickly, should he be put on a team that uses point guards in a more traditional way. Two additional points on Conley. First, we know that he does very well when playing with a low-post beast. Can you think of anyone like that on the Wolves' roster? Second, he's some whose trade value is actually very easy to figure out. First, Milwaukee scuttled a deal that would have sent out Ramon Sessions and Joe Alexander, then Memphis killed a trade for Travis Outlaw. So why don't the Wolves offer Craig Smith, Rashad McCants, and a first rounder (ideally Boston's, but the lesser of the Utah/Miami set, if needed) to bring in a young, solid defending, woefully misused point guard?

Next up is Raymond Felton. The argument for him is a lot simpler. First he's going to get moved by the start of next season. Second he's pretty much a super-charged Bassy (bad shooting, good ball movement, workable defense). Along with Conley, he would probably benefit from a change of scenery. And it would be a lot of fun to see Larry Brown deal with Rashad McCants for half a season. The downside to this idea is that Felton is a restricted free agent after this season, which could result in limiting the Wolves future cap room. Additionally, he's 24, and while points take longer to mature, I like where Conley is at 21 a lot more. The upside is that it would probably cost the Wolves a lot less, and not damage that depth I was bragging about two paragraphs ago. Considering how hot Charlotte is to drop him, I see McCants, Booth, and the Celtics pick as being sufficient to get it done. But if the Wolves do like him, there's no reason they can't spend some money on him in the offseason, as I imagine Charlotte wouldn't match any contract, no matter how reasonable for the team.

Now, the small forwards. This seems to be much more difficult, as there don't seem to be any truly quality, young SFs in the discount bin at the moment. Additionally, I'm starting to think that you won't be able to get your hands on a young FA small forward for blood or money this offseason. In this environment, nere's the best I can find: Gerald Wallace, Brandan Wright, and Luol Deng (seriously).

The one that Wolves fans seem to like the most is Gerald Wallace. I like him too, but the only question is what the cost would be for the Wolves. While I don't think getting rid of one or two of the draft picks is necessarily bad, this trade would seem to be between two teams looking for similar things. Both are young teams looking to rebuild, and as such I imagine Charlotte would hope to get a young player back. But is there really any youth that we should throw to the non-wolves at this point? Besides McCants, who is pretty much just an expiring contract at this point?

The Brendan Wright situation is interesting. He's a solid rebounding, plus defending, good scoring small forward sophomore who seems to already be in Nellie's doghouse. He seems to be like the type of guy who the Wolves need, an athletic, fast jump shooter/ball control freak. In the past I've mentioned that I love Al's ability to not turn the ball over, and Wright is the exact same with the 11th lowest turnover rate in the league (second in SFs). I don't know why Nellie doesn't like him and I don't care. He would be a good fit, and could probably be had for McCants and pick, if he's truly as far out with Nellie as he seems to be. As an aside, I think Golden State is the one place McCants could redeem himself, as he seems tailor-made for Nellieball. The big caveat with Wright is that he only plays 16 minutes a game, and I have no idea how well he would hold up getting 30 minutes a game. But he's only 21, and I have to think that even if increased minutes resulted in decreased play for this season, he'd figure it out in fairly short order.

Now people might think I'm crazy, but I'm fairly positive that Luol Deng is on the move this summer. There are several interlocking reasons why. First, this Chicago team needs to be blown up. Everyone on it is underperforming, and they have dont' have a truly top guy like the the Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, Lakers, or ever the Wolves have. This is a team that needs a change. Also, in 2010 we're going to be having the summer of LeBron/Bosh/Wade. Now, one of the big players is going to be New York. Despite being an awful team, they get respect for being a massive sports market. But why would you sign with New York, when you can sign with Chicago and get almost as much press on a much better team, as well as inherit the land of Jordan? The reason would be money. Right now the Bulls are way over the cap, but that is a lot easier to remedy than it looks. If they can move Hinrich (probable), Nocioni (maybe), and Deng (definite if they want to try), and combine that with the Larry Hughes expiration date, they will have around $30 million on the books in 2010, which gives them more than enough room to sign a max free agent. It probably a pipe dream, and couldn't happen until the BYC is removed from Deng (which should happen this offseaon), but I wouldn't be suprised to see Deng on the move within a year.

In any case, those are the trades I would like the Wolves to pursue. What do people think of them? And who else should they look at?

DON'T PANIC: Of Effective Field Goals

McCleak — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 05:50:17 -0000

Like a disturbance in the Force, I can sense the number Minnesota Flagellants about to explode. So I thought I'd do a little to quell fears about the Wolves. Now, when I was watching the Wolves get slaughtered by the Kings tonight, I realized something about them: they're not doing that badly on offense. Now at first that seems laughable, but hear me out. They're above average at offensive rebounding (thanks to Kevin Love), above average on turnovers, and to the low end of middle of the pack on free throws per shot attempt (but that's the least important of the four factors, honestly). So what's the problem? They can't shoot. Right now the Wolves have an efg% of 45.5% good for dead last in the league. And while that's before tonights laffer was added in, they were right at that mark for the night (Saccy shot 56.% efg tonight, which would put them tops in the league if they kept it up all season). Right now the the league average is 49.2% efg. Currently the Wolves have 4 players (Mike Miller, Craig Smith, Al Jefferson, and Ryan Gomes) who are shooting at or above that mark. And that sad part of that is that it's not even close. The worst of the four is Jefferson, who had a 48.9% mark prior to the Kings game, and probably put himself at or above average with his 11-20 night. But the next BEST player is Randy Foye. He's shooting 42.7% right now. That's pretty disgusting. Right now there are two other teams with so few average shooters. The first is Chicago, which mitigates that situation by having their four good shooters take all the shots. Second is Oklahoma. Does anyone want to be compared with Oklahoma right now? I thought not.
So why is this DON'T PANIC and not WE'RE DOOOOOOOOOOMED? Because there are three and a half forces in play here. The first is seasonal progression. In the NBA, teams tend to shoot better as the season goes along. So it wouldn't be shocking to see an increase in shooting effectiveness over the course of the season. The second is that the two worst offenders, Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, should be a lot better. McCants was second best efg% player last year on the team (third if you count Mike Miller's season in Memphis), while Foye was just under average. Their shooting woes are compounded by the fact that get the most touches on the team, behind Jefferson. And while I don't expect them to have an average year, if they could get it together for the last two-thirds of the season, things will look a lot better in a hurry. Now the three and a half is this a bit complicated. First is a basketball stats rule. It's called the Fluke Rule, and is one of John Hollinger's pet studies (incidentally, if you care about basketball at all you should go over and read Hollinger's stuff at Four Letter. It's behind their pay wall, but his content alone is worth it). There are several part to the rule, but one is relevant to our purpose. It is this: that a large, sudden dip (or spike) in a player's fg% that can't be explained by injury is almost certainly an abberration, and will correct itself the next year. Which is a fancy way of saying that even if things don't turn around this year, they will next season (long parenthetical: remember that no one expected this Wolves team to contend, or even make the playoffs this season. And things like this happen. Sometimes teams that are supposed to win 55 games win 45, and 45ers win 35. And sometimes 30 win teams are on pace to win 15. In the NBA, so it goes. End parentheses). Now here's the half point comes in. The Wolves are currently 4% behind the league average. The last time a team came in worse than 3.3% behind was the 2002-2003 Nuggets. The season after that, the Nuggets won 27 more games (from 17 to 44) and made the playoffs. So there's always hope. And this season was built on the hope the future. It's still there, and that's a better reason than you need to not panic.

*Effective Field Goal Percentage, which is (2P + (3P *1.5))/FGA.

The Cost Of Disruption?

McCleak — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:40:35 -0000

Over the past couple of weeks, Wolves fans have been hoping, not without cause, that the team would make a trade. Specifically mentioned was getting one of Memphis' gazillion point guards, or pulling a heist and taking off with Gerald Wallace. After the last 24 hours, both of those plans seem to be irrelevant. With the Augustin and Richardson trades, it appears like these teams no long have need for the Wolves.

Personally, I'm wondering if all the FO turmoil knocked the Wolves out of these discussions at a critical time. Now, this isn't to suggest that the Wolves shouldn't have dumped McHale, but it would have been nice to have have Augustin or Wallace and a new GM.

What do you say?