Here we go again.

A quick intro/refresher of what is going on here - I am a huge MMA fan who spends too much of his day watching fights, reading about fights, thinking about fights and waiting for fights. My wife not only doesn't kill me for this, she's a bit of a fan herself. Definitely more of a "casual" fan than I am, but she knows the difference between an Americana and a kimura, gets mad at crowds that boo ground fights and thinks Mike Goldberg might be mentally slow, or at least have ADD. We always end up having fun conversations about upcoming fights, and starting back at UFC 112, I started sharing our thoughts and picks here at Bloody Elbow.

Now, not that anyone is keeping score, but the Mrs. chipped one fight off my lead last time out, knocking me lead down to 8. Saturday night has a lot of close fights that could go either way, so she might erase more of the lead...

Daniel Roberts (9-1, 0-1 UFC) -165 vs. Forrest "The Meat Cleaver" Petz (17-7, 2-3 UFC) +135

Mr: Petz gets back into the UFC for the first time in nearly three years and gets a chance to even up his record in the Octagon. He has to get through Roberts first though. While Roberts didn't make much of an impression in his debut against John Howard, Petz doesn't really have the power to put him away quickly. The longer the fight goes, the better chance Roberts has to get the fight to the ground and submit Petz, who has proven susceptible to good submission artists previously.

Winner:Roberts, Submission, Round 1

Mrs: How do you get a nickname like Meat Cleaver? I love it. Meh...Meat Cleaver is old, and seems to have had his chance in the UFC. Most of his wins are by way of TKO.  And most losses are by Submission. And Roberts, is the exact opposite. So who do you go for? Punching dude or JJ dude? In this case I'd usually go for the guy with the cooler nickname , and this time won't be any different.

Winner: Cleaver by "lucky punch", I mean, TKO.

Gerald Harris (15-2, 2-0 UFC) -270 vs. David Branch (6-0, UFC debut) +110

Mr: I know Harris is ridiculously strong for the opening round, has some stamina issues, but shows a lot of heart. I don't know much about Branch, but he's never been out of the second round and I know he's going to spend a lot of energy early trying to get the hard hitting Harris to the ground. If he gets it down, he has a good chance of finishing, but he also stands a good chance of tiring out trying to get it there, not to mention the first time jitters adrenaline dump.

Winner: Harris, TKO, Round 1

Mrs: PS: his name is Dave Branch...per Sherdog. Gotta go with experience here. Harris has more UFC experience and seems to be able to handle himself in the Octagon. Good luck to the newcomer.

Winner: Harris, TKO

Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove -165(11-7, 6-4 UFC) vs. Goran Reljic (8-1, 1-1 UFC) +145

Mr: I suspect this will be one of the better fights of the night, but since Grove hates SPIKE right now, we won't be seeing for free. Oh well...hopefully it makes the PPV. Once they're in the cage, we will have two tall, long fighters who will both be looking to get the fight to the ground. Once they're there, it is going to be a matter of who catches who. Reljic is good, but Groves' ground game has proven to be sneaky.

Winner:Groves, Submission, Round 2

Mrs: You'd think I'd like this one...but really, I get upset when the guys I like act stoopid in the cage or worse...when they lose! You know how I feel about Kendall...so I gotta go with him. I hope this is a super-cool JJ match. I hate it when JJ guys try and be "tough" (not sure if "tough" is the right word, but you know what I mean) and not use their JJ and try to bang with the other guy (*cough* Jorge Gurgel *cough*). I'm hoping for a super cool submission victory by my guy Kendall.

Winner: Grove, Submission

Jon Madsen (5-0, 2-0 UFC) -105 vs. Karlos "The Terminator" Vemola (7-0, UFC Debut) -125

Mr: Madsen is just a good enough wrestler to hang on at the bottom of the division and give the rest of his skills a bit of time to develop. Vemola has a good looking record, but it's mostly in England, which hasn't produced much in the way of top level heavyweights, and he certainly hasn't faced a wrestler as good as Madsen. All that spells to me is three rounds of getting grinded down.

Winner: Madsen, Unanimous Decision

Mrs: Ok at first I was going to say: Go with the guy who has more UFC experience, but really...TUF 10 Finale and Al-Turk...meh. Then I was going to say Vemola since he looks meaner. But THEN, I read that Vemola is expecting a new baby on or around the time of the fight (and I know this is a total "chick-thing" to say) but this might distract him from the fight. So...my money is on...

Winner: Madsen, Decision

Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub -350 (5-1, 1-1UFC) -410 vs. Chris Tuchscherer (18-2, 1 NC, 1-1 UFC) +260

Mr: Tuchscherer should have by all rights lost his last fight, and probably be gone from the UFC already. He got hammered by Gabriel Gonzaga in a hurry in his first fight, and look for more of the same here as this fight looks like it was put together to showcase Schaub's speed and power. He already got his mojo back with a quick win over Chase Gormley, and now he gets to get some buzz going.

Winner:Schaub, TKO, Round 1

Mrs: The Hybrid?

Mr: Yes, The Hybrid.  

Mrs: Yowza. Maybe we could change it to something MORE LAME like "energy efficient" or "good for the environment" wait...does that make me sound like I hate the environment?  Cause I don't, really.

Mr: I think it's more a reference to his fighting style, not his environmental friendliness.

Mrs: Oh..right. Guess that makes more sense. But it's still LAME! Uh...quick thought...How is Brendan Schaub's nicknamed "the hybrid" if all his fights have been won and lost by way of  (T)KO?? Isn't that an oxymoron?

Mr: I never said it was a good nickname.

Mrs: It's a lie! A sham! I'm confused...why is the giant meat-head-man who only has two losses not expected to pummel the guy who lies about how diverse he is?

Mr: Schaub has looked really good in his fights (except his loss) and is thought of as a good prospect.  Giant Meat Head Man isn't thought of as all that good.

Mrs: And he fights in North Dakota...does that mean he trains with Brock? AKA: the man with toasters for hands?

Mr: Yes.

Mrs: Hmmm... See how I peiced that together. I is Smrt. Yes I is.

Mr: Brock trains in Minnesota.

Mrs: OK..Giant Meat-Head-Man is 265lbs. The Liar is 240lbs. If it stays in the first round, my money is on the meat-heat. I'm going against the odds here.  Meat-Head by submission...HAHA, just kidding. KO.

Winner:Giant Mea...Tuscherer, KO

Seth "The Silverback" Petruzelli -125 (12-4, 0-2 UFC) vs. Ricardo Romero +105 (10-1, UFC Debut)

Mr: Weird fight to have on SPIKE, except that you know Petruzelli's entrance should be entertaining. Once the fight gets going though, I have a feeling that Romero – who trains with the tough Miller brothers in New Jersey – will get the fight to the ground and tap out the Kimbo Killer. I mean, seriously, Petruzelli IS NOT THAT GOOD. And, he's kind of annoying.

Winner:Romero, Submission, Round 1 (Look at the picture to the right, and tell me Petruzelli losing by submission isn't funny.)

Mrs:Oooh! Petruzelli beat Kevin Furguson in 14 seconds eh. Good ol' Kimbo...Did I see that fight?

Mr: It was on CBS two years ago...I watched it when I was at that seminar in New York.

Mrs: Oh...I wonder if I did. Maybe. What is Ring of Combat?

Mr: Minor league show.

Mrs: Oh. Don't care about this fight. Will go for Seth Petruzelli. TKO.

Winner:Petruzelli, TKO

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle (28-17-5, 7-8 UFC) -195 vs. Matt "The Immortal" Brown (11-8, 4-2 UFC) +155

Mr: Both guys have nicknames, a sure sign we've reached the main card. Odd piece of trivia – the last time either guy fought outside of the UFC, was against each other as Lytle pulled off a submission win. I think the odd part of that might be that Lytle submitted him, since eveyone envisions this as an out and out war. Since then however, Lytle has turned into the go to guy for a UFC stand up brawl, and Brown went through the TUF house, looked like he would be a one dimensional brawler , but managed show some good ground skills over his half dozen UFC fights. He's also 7 years younger than the 36 year old Lytle, who's wars have to start showing up sometime. I think it starts Saturday night.

Winner:Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: I can't really see this being a fight I'll be super pumped to watch.

Mr: Any reason you're not pumped? Most people are really looking forward to it.

Mrs: I'm just not a Matt Brown fan. Sure he's tough, but so am I.....No, wait, I'm not. But still. Plus I don't like his tattoos...they're lame. Oh...wait! Is this a rematch? You didn't tell me that.

Mr: Does it being a rematch change anything?

Mrs: Nope.

Winner: Lytle, Decision

George Sotriopoulos (12-2, 5-0 UFC) -195 vs. Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino +155 (16-4, 7-3 UFC) +250

Mr: I keep betting against Sotriopoulos, and I keep being wrong. He has really come into his own and is one of the most dangerous jiu jitsu practioners in MMA right now, and not only for his threatening submissions, but for the way he uses his jiu jitsu to control his opponents. Pellegrino would seem to have a decided wrestling advantage, but Sotriopoulos is dangerous off his back. On their feet, where a fair bit of this fight could take place as each avoids the other's strength, I think Sotriopoulos is better, if not more powerful. This could be the fight of the night, or three rounds of snoozing.

Winner: Sotriopoulos, Unanimous Decision

Mrs: I have never been a Pellegrino fan, and I don't plan on starting now. Plus, why would I when George Sotir... has such a cute accent. Since fights are decided by cute accents in my world...

Winner: Sotiropoulos by Submission

Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski (21-9-1, 4-1 UFC) -250 vs. Stephan "The American Psycho" Bonnar (11-7, 5-6 UFC) +190

Mr: I think we all know what we're going to get here. These two went at it in their last fight, and despite a semi-controversial finish due to Bonnar's cut, Soszynski looked to be getting the better of the fight. I expect more of the same here, and more calls for Bonnar to lose his job after another loss to a mid-level opponent.

Winner: Soszynski, Unanimous Decision

Mrs: Two super creative nicknames, this is going to be a tough one. I'm surprised that Stephan Bonnar is such an underdog here. I am a huge fan.

Mr: He's 2-5 in his last 7.

Mrs: But then again...It is Canada day...and our good friend Krzysztof is a Canadian. Sorry, Stephan, I heart you, but I just can't go against a Canadian unless he sucks, or pisses me off ; you know who you are  (kalib starnes).

Winner:K-dawg Canadian by Submission.

Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, 2 NC, 1-0 UFC) -225 vs. Chris "The Crippler" Leben (20-6, 10-5 UFC) +185

Mr: Leben will make the quickest turnaround in the UFC since they abandoned one night tournaments. And I think he's going to win. Akiyama has been preparing for Wanderlei Silva for nearly a year, and now has to deal with a different beast in Leben. Akiyama doesn't have the power to hurt or finish Leben, and if Aaron Simpson couldn't wrestle him down, Akiyama won't be able to. So short of a dynamic throw and great top control, Akiyama is going to sexy sleep.

Winner: Leben, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: I feel bad for Leben here, but at least he's got balls to come into this fight on such short notice. Or maybe it's just sheer stupidity, what do I know?

Winner: Akiyama, TKO

Brock Lesnar (4-1, 3-1 UFC) -170 vs. Shane Carwin (12-0, 4-0 UFC) +140

Mr:I'll leave the over ananlyzing to others. Here are the basics of this fight – Lesnar has had one fight in the past 20 months, still hasn't regained his size from his sickness and, after the fight with Mir, I really question his chin. Carwin has destroyed both Gabriel Gonzaga and Mir in the meantime, will be the bigger man, we know he can take a shot and fire back, and we know he hits like a Mack truck. This will not last long, and we will have a new champion.

Winner: Carwin, KO, Round 1

Mrs: This should be interesting and to be honest, I have no idea how it will go, but I can tell you who I won't be rootin' for and that's the idiot who tells the world that he wants to "get on his wife" after a fight. Loser.  Fine, he's strong and is a big dude and works hard to try (operative word – TRY) to be a well rounded MMA fighter and not just a wrestler...but the dude has a flippin' penis tattooed on his god darn chest. A PENIS. I know, I know...this has been written about at least a million times already. But still. It’s. A. Penis. 

How would you feel if Cris Cyborg came out with vagina-like object tattooed on her chest? Not sexy.

Mr: Wow.

Mrs:  Ok…back to the fight. So you’ve got dude with the giant toaster-like hands (as my husband says) and dude with the toaster-oven-like hands. As long as Carwin can handle Lesnar’s excellent wrestling, I think it’s a no brainer.

Winner: Carwin, TKO. Here's hoping.

Here we go again.

A quick intro/refresher of what is going on here - I am a huge MMA fan who spends too much of his day watching fights, reading about fights, thinking about fights and waiting for fights. My wife not only doesn't kill me for this, she's a bit of a fan herself. Definitely more of a "casual" fan than I am, but she knows the difference between an Americana and a kimura, gets mad at crowds that boo ground fights and thinks Mike Goldberg might be mentally slow, or at least have ADD. We always end up having fun conversations about upcoming fights, and starting back at UFC 112, I started sharing our thoughts and picks here at Bloody Elbow.

Now, not that anyone is keeping score, but on the strength of a nice 9-2 showing at UFC 113, I am up 9 fights overall on my better half. UFC 114 was not the greatest showing for either of us, so let's see if we can make some hay in our home and native land this time around.

Jesse Lennnox (11-2, 1-1 UFC) -135 vs. Mike Pyle (18-7-1, 1-2 UFC) +105

Mr: I think experience wins out in what could be a pretty good undercard fight. Lennox has had less than stellar results when he has stepped up form the regional promotions, with a loss in the IFL, a loss in the UFC after winning his debut by cut in spite of getting beaten in the fight, with only a WEC win to balance that out. While Pyle has had mixed results in his UFC run, he has fought just about everywhere a pro fighter can in a career and has had good success as well. While he'll never be a title contender in the UFC, he should have more than enough skills to deal with Lennox long enough on his feet to get the fight to the ground where he is very, very dangerous.

Winner: Pyle, Submission, Round1

Mrs: Quicksand Pyle?? Really? Why not just Sand Pyle? Can you really have a "pile" of quicksand? Yikes….neither one has a great UFC record, and both are coming off of losses. Who cares who wins. I won't remember either one of these guys five minutes after they fight. Sorry, but you know it's true. I'll put my money on Jesse, since he's got enough sense to not name himself "quicksand".

Winner: Lennox, in some way I don't really care about.

PS: What does that even mean? Quicksand Pyle??? There are so many lame jokes going through my head right now...oh...he's sinkin' fast...brutal, I know, but it won't go away!

 

Claude Patrick (11-1, UFC Debut) -325 vs. Ricardo Funch (7-1, 0-1 UFC) +250

Mr: Patrick is a big favourite here, but he's making his UFC debut, so keep that in mind if the fight goes past the first two minutes, as the rule of thumb is that first timers gas quickly. Funch, in spite of a reportedly good ground game developed under Gabriel Gonzaga, is going to look to keep the fight standing as Patrick will look for the submission advantage on the ground. If it does go to the ground though, Funch showed he has the cardio to last three rounds in his last fight against Johny Hendricks, and should have some good submission defense. If Patrick expends his energy in attempted takedowns too early, look for Funch to pound out a win over a tired opponent.

Winner: Funch, TKO, Round 1

Mrs: Yowza...did you see the picture Sherdog.com has posted of the "Golden Boy". I can't root for a white dude with crazy braids in his hair. I just can't. I say good luck to Claude Patrick in his UFC debut; I'll be rrootin' for ya (unless you some how turn into a white boy and put ridiculous braids in your hair). Just saying. Oooh, and as a special bonus, turns out my buddy Claude is Canadian! And, he’s cute. It’s really a no brainer.

Winner: Patrick by Sub. Or maybe the other guy realizes that his braids are too much and just stays home. Either way, I'll be happy.

James Wilks (6-3, 1-1 UFC) -355 vs. Peter Sobotta (8-2, 0-1 UFC) +275

Mr: Wilks looked like a million bucks with his transitions and submission combos in winning the TUF finale, but then looked like he was way out his league in getting pounded by Matt Brown in his first post-TUF fight. The truth of Wilks is likely closer to the Brown fight, but Sobotta doesn't have the skills to take it to Wilks the way Brown did. How long the fight lasts likely depends on how good Sobotta's submission defense is. I'm guessing the undercard is going to go by quickly for the live crowd.

Winner: Wilks, Submission, Round 1

Mrs: First off let me say that I really, really like the name of Peter's Camp: Team Planet Eater..It's cute. Though, judging by his picture (solely by his picture), he seems like too much of a nice-guy to be a fighter. Both are coming off losses and neither one have a particularly impressive UFC careers. I seem to remember liking Wilks in the TUF 9 season, so I’ll pick him.

Winner: Wilks by decision.

Mario Miranda (9-1, 0-1 UFC) -195 vs. David Loiseau (19-9, 2-3 UFC) +155

Mr: Miranda has a good all around game, and despite running into the emerging buzzsaw that is Gerald Harris in his UFC debut, he's a legit prospect at middleweight. Loiseau gets another shot at the big time, and will look to prove that he belongs again. He started out hot and seemed to be on the verge of becoming one of the most popular fighters in the sport with his viscous elbows and active striking…until Rich Franklin seemed to beat the fight out of his career. He has bounced around the regional circuit since, but has lost every big fight since (vs Villasenor in EliteXC, Ed Herman at UFC 97 on short notice and Jason Day with a return to the UFC on the line). He looks tentative and gun shy when the pressure is on, but if he can get past that mental hurdle, he does have the skills to give almost anyone in the mid level of the division a good fight. That being said…

Winner: Miranda, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: Huh…guy who has a chick's last name or a guy whose last name mean chick (en Francais)...tough call. Well...it means bird...but my line wouldn't have been as cute if I had said bird. Yowza...birdman lost to Ed Herman. Not good. Miranda (all I can picture is the Miranda from Sex and the City trying to fight, in heels..it's really not a very good image), seems to be a bit more well rounded, but lacks experience. I'll go with the bird, I mean chick...

Winner: Loiseau, TKO

Mac Danzig (19-7-1, 3-3 UFC) -135 vs. Matt Wiman (11-5, 5-3 UFC) +105

Mr: I don't like Wiman and his annoying bible quotes after winning his fights, so I'd be cheering for Danzig even if I didn't like him, which I do. He also looks a lot like a good friend of mine, so I feel bad when he gets beat on. Danzig's game plan should be pretty obvious - use his boxing to get close (and hopefully avoid the power of Wiman) and get the fight to the ground where he should have an advantage. From there, the question is does he get the sub, or grind out a decision. Wiman is a solid fighter, and while Danzig doesn't seriously outclass him in any field of the sport, his best chance to win is to land the big shot and finish if he hurts Danzig, who has shown he can be stunned and put out.

Winner: Danzig, Unanimous Decision

Mrs: Oooh this is a tough one for me. I like 'em both.

Mr: Even though wiman always quotes the bible after he wins?

Mrs:Ick. Well. Nuff said.But he's cute? Does that cancel out the bible-speak? No, no it doesn't. Mac by Sub. Maybe he'll squeeze the jesus-lovin' soul right out of Matt. What? Too much?

Winner: Danzig by Sub

Tyson Griffin (14-2, 7-2 UFC) -260 vs. Evan Dunham (10-0, 3-0 UFC) +200

Mr: As far as title contender implications go, this is possibly the most interesting fight on the card (along with Kampmann/Thiago). Griffin has been floating around the peripheral of the title picture for what seems like years now, and with his strong wrestling and improved boxing is a threat to almost anyone in the division. Losses to current champ Frankie Edgar and former champ Sean Sherk have come at inopportune moments, though, and kept him from mounting a title challenge. Now, he is faced with the dangerous but still relatively unknown Evan Dunham. He's a strong, good all around fighter, and a fight live on SPIKE could be his coming out party. The line on the fight is a bit deceptive, and if I wanted to make some money on this card, I'd put a few down on Dunham to pull the upset. Outside of gambling though, I think Dunham's time is still in the future, while I think Griffin is ready to make the next step as he enters the prime of his career.

Winner: Griffin, Unanimous Decision

Mrs: These guys both fight with Xtreme Couture? huh...I thought that wouldn't do that? Put two guys from the same camp against each other. Or is that just main events?

Mr: Nope..Xtreme Couture will do that, unlike some other camps, like AKA.

Mrs: Oh I see. Both have good records, this could be a good fight. Or it could be a long fight that goes to decision. My vote is for Dunham since he seems to finish his fights more often than Griffen.

Winner: Dunham, maybe submission? (Don't know really. If I had picked Griffen, I would have said: Decision. But since I didn't, I'm not really sure.)

Rory MacDonald (10-0, 1-0 UFC) -150 vs. Carlos Condit (24-5, 1-1 UFC) +120

Mr: I will go on record and say that I am a big Condit fan, have been since his WEC days, and I think he's one of the most exciting and well rounded young fighters in the sport. Now that that is out of the way, here is why he is going to lose this fight. MacDonald is the best little known guy in the sport. He's dangerous everywhere, but especially on the ground. Against someone like Condit who is also good everywhere and has the confidence to go anywhere with anyone, MacDonald will have a chance to play to that strength at some point, and when he does, I think he finishes the double tough Condit and really starts making a name for himself. This will also be my pick for fight of the night as, no matter how long it goes, it's going to be a lot of action and strategy and two guys going for the finish.

Winner: MacDonald, Submission, Round 1

Mrs: Has Condit ever actually killed anyone? If not, his nickname is false advertising. Either way, I like the young Canadian Kid; hope he can stay undefeated. I'm a bit worried since he's never gone all the way. I hope he wins. Condit has a boat-load more experience though...and it seems they both have similar strengths. This doesn't bode well for the young Canadian. I think, despite my preference, that I have to go with Condit.

Winner: Condit, Decision

Ben Rothwell (30-7, 0-1 UFC) -150 vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-14-1, 0-1 UFC) +120

Mr: Both of these veterans took beatings at the hands of the next generation of heavyweights in their last outings, and will be desperate to make their marks in the Octagon here. The loser is likely getting a pink slip, while the winner might be able to make a decent living as a mid level gate keeper in the division. Rothwell certainly has the better overall skill set and is five years younger than Yvel, but if he's not able to get the fight to the ground, the "Hurricane" could put his lights out at any time. However, that's really the only chance Yvel has here, and it's not like Rothwell doesn't have some power in his fists himself. Also, it's not like Yvel is suddenly going to develop good takedown defense, so we are pretty much guaranteed of a takedown and ground and pound TKO finish here.

Winner: Rothwell, TKO, Round 1

Mrs: Really? Big Ben isn't from the UK, so his nickname is inappropriate. Whoa...he's a big dude..guess it's not that inappropriate. Jeez...I can't imagine how this fight is going to go. All I can picture is (overweight) rock em sockem robots going at it. Someone is going to get knocked the F out!

Winner: Rothwell, KO

Paulo Thiago (13-1, 3-1 UFC) -215 vs. Martin Kampmann (16-3, 7-2 UFC) +170

Mr: A very important fight in the welterweight division. This will be Kampmann's last real chance to make himself a contender, as a loss here will likely relegate him to middle of the pack status, and a good next fight for Rory MacDonald to continue his march up the division. He is good enough overall to have a chance against Thiago, but the Brazillian has improved his game nearly every time into the Octagon and has to be on the verge of #1 contendership at this point. We know he has good power and improving technique to deal with the Dutch kickboxer on the feet, and we know that his ground game is very good, so that, along with his improved physical strength, should give him the advantage there as well. This is a closer fight than some people may be expecting, but I think Thiago is just a bit better everywhere.

Winner: Thiago, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: Don't really know what to say here. Paulo Thiago Submission. That's all I got.

Winner: Thiago, Submission

Pat Barry (5-1, 2-1 UFC) -165 vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (26-7-2, 3-3 UFC) +140

Mr: The Cro Cop retirement tour ends here. Barry is younger, faster, stronger and hits harder. A lot has been made about Cro Cop taking the fight to the ground, but do your really think Barry hasn't improved there since the Hague embarrassment? This is going to be a fast, brutal and ugly end to everyone's favourite legend.

Winner: Barry, KO, Round 1

Mrs: What does "HD" in Barry's nickname stand for?

Mr: I don't know….Hi Def?

Mrs: Ugh….terrible.

Mr: Oh…it means "Hype or Die".

Mrs: THAT IS TERRIBLE. Shit….Really?

Mr: Yup.

Mrs: Bad nicknames aside, this fight should be interesting. Do you think they'll just kick each other until one of them falls over? I think it'll end TKO kicks...For Cro Cop. I can't root for a guy whose nick name is "Hype or Die" - get over yourself. Plus...I like Crop Cop, even though he's old.

Winner: Cro Cop, TKO

Rich Franklin (26-5, 12-4 UFC) -150 vs. Chuck Liddell (21-7, 16-6 UFC) +125

Mr: Liddell looks great in his training camp photos. It's obvious he's training hard for this fight, and having Franklin step in has probably guaranteed that Liddell put in his best camp in ages. Unfortunately, you can't train your chin. No, Franklin doesn't have one punch KO power, but what he does have is a cleaner, crisper, straighter punching style that is going to land all day once Liddell starts to open up and reverts to his haymaker punching style (I'm sorry, no amount of training with Howard Davis is going to make a 40 year old former world champ stop throwing haymakers when he gets hurt or excited). One of those straight punches isn't going to end Liddell's night, but four or five in a quick flurry will put him on the ground where Franklin has been showing increasing skill in both his submission game (not a likely finish here) and his ground and pound (put money on it). Liddell is 40 now, and his success was predicated on using his speed to KO fighters who couldn't take him to the ground. That speed and reaction time is gone now, and whether or not Franklin takes it to the ground no longer matters.

Winner: Franklin, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: So...Chuck and Rich...what can I say? I think they are both getting a bit too old for this game. Don't get me wrong, I love 'em both, but c'mon. My money is on Rich.

Winner: Rich, Decision

Third time is the charm.

A quick intro/refresher of what is going on here - I am a huge MMA fan who spends too much of his day watching fights, reading about fights, thinking about fights and waiting for fights. My wife not only doesn't kill me for this, she's a bit of a fan herself. Definitely more of a "casual" fan than I am, but she knows the difference between an Americana and a kimura, gets mad at crowds that boo ground fights and thinks Mike Goldberg might be mentally slow, or at least have ADD. We always end up having fun conversations about upcoming fights, and starting back at UFC 112, I started sharing our thoughts and picks here at Bloody Elbow.

Now, not that anyone is keeping score, but I used a nice 9-2 showing at UFC 113 to go up 8 fights overall over two show on my better half, but I'm sure that tide will change sooner rather than later, and given the number of fairly close fights on Saturday night, that could start really soon.

Melvin Guillard (23-8-2, 7-4 UFC) --275 vs. Waylon Lowe (8-2, UFC Debut) +215

Mr: I don't know much about Lowe, who will be making his Octagon debut Saturday night. That usually doesn't bode very well for young fighters whose biggest experience is a Bellator fight, so he has a strike against him coming in. The second strike is that Guillard looked really good against Ronnys Torres in his first fight under the tutelage of Greg Jackson. He has always had a lot of talent, but lacked the maturity and calmness of mind to take full advantage of it. Against Torres you could see him slowing down his thoughts and doing the smart, safe things to win the fight. Not as exciting as his fights against Stevenson of Diaz, but he lost both of those on quick mistakes. He just turned 27 and if his maturity is for real, he's just reaching the precipice of his physical prime as well, and that could spell issues for a lot of UFC lightweights going forward. He takes the next step towards that here.

Winner: Guillard, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: Lets go for the guy with more experience. Do you think Melvin will keep his nickname when he hits 30? 40? Is that still young?

Winner: Melvin, Decision

Luis "Banha" Cane (10-2, 3-2) -575vs. Cyril "The Snake" Diabate (15-6-1, UFC Debut) +375

Mr: Here's my upset pick for the night. Cane was in the discussion for a tittle shot prior to being nearly decapitated by Li'l Nog in hist last fight. It was the kind of beating that could really stick with a fighter, especially one that fights with the style that Cane does. So, while Diabate is making his UFC debut here, they're not really doing Cane any favors by putting him in with a "rookie". Diabate's striking is lethal with his background as a pro kick boxer in Europe, but he is no slouch on the ground either, with five carrier subs. Still, Cane is likely the much stronger of the two on the ground, but Diabate should be able to hold his own and given his training history with Team Quest he might even have the wrestling edge in this one. Add in his 6'6 frame and the reach that gives him, and I think "Banha" is going to be seeing stars at the end of this one.

Winner: Diabate, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: I don't really care about either fighter, so I will go for the favorite.

Winner: Cane by TKO

Aaron Riley (28-12-1, 2-4 UFC )-175 vs. Joe Brammer (7-1-1, 0-1 UFC) +145

Mr: I think Riley is just too tough for Brammer. Should be a fun brawl as long as it last though, as both guys will be fighting for their UFC lives in this one.

Winner: Riley, Decision

Mrs: Who?? Blah. Give the new kids a chance.

Winner: Brammer by Submission

Jesse "Kid Hercules" Forbes (11-4, 0-2 UFC) -120 vs. Ryan Jensen (14-6, 1-4 UFC) -145

Mr: Another pink slip battle. Neither guy is likely to ever be a major factor in the middleweight division, and I think the odds are right for this fight - it's a toss up. I flip the coin and get….

Winner: Forbes, Decision

Mrs: Who and who?

Winner: Apathy

Amir Sadollah (3-1, 3-1 UFC) -145 vs. Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim (12-0-1, 3-0-1 UFC) +120

Mr:This has a chance to end up as the fight of the night as the styles of these two should make for a pretty explosive battle. Kim has some of the best judo in MMA, an if he was able to send Karo Parisyan flying, then Sadollah is going for a ride at some point. Sadollah is not without ground skills though, so he should be able to survive after the throw. On their feet, ,Sadollah will look to use his punishing leg kicks to weaken the base of Kim and hopefully avoid throws and trips after the first round. Neither man has demonstrated finishing power in their UFC careers so a three round war should be expected, and it will likely come down to Sadollah's kicks vs Kim's top control for the win.

Winner: Sadollah, Decision

Mrs: Ok….who is Kim?

(Mr: He's a Korean, good at judo, he lost to Karo in the last fight you saw either of them in, only Karo was high on Dilaudid, so it was ruled a No Contest.

Mrs: OH…Dilaudid…that's not good. Well, Because Kim's last name sounds like a lady's first name, I vote for Sadollah. Now that I think about it, I like Sadollah even more now since he didn't incorporate some lame nickname or tagline like "holla" for Sadollah or Sadollah needs a "dollah".  

Mr: Wow….."Hollah for Sadollah:? Did you really just say that?

Mrs: Yup. Too much? Do I embarrass you?

Mr: No ma'am.)

Winner: Sadollah, Submission

Efrain Escudero (12-1, 2-1 UFC) -500 vs. Dan "The Upgrade" Lauzon (12-3, 0-2 UFC) +365

Mr: Escudero showed some chinks in his armor for the first time in his loss to Evan Dunham, and while a fighter's first fight following his first loss is always an interesting proposition, Escudero strikes me as the kind of competitor who will use that as motivation to improve. Even if he's the same fighter we saw last time, I think he destroys Lauzon here. His stand up is still improving, and his wrestling advantage should be enough to avoid any submission advantage that Lauzon may have. Add in the fact that MMAth says Escudero is better (he beat Cole Miller by TKO who beat Lauzon by submission) and I think this is the easiest pick on the card. And, at what point should Dan have his nickname taken away? There's no way he's an upgrade over his far better older brother

Winner: Escudero, TKO, Round 2

Mrs: I don't remember being very impressed with Dan the first time I saw him, if I may say. I don't think he stands much of a chance honestly. I won't really be interested in the fight unless Joe i s in his corner. Joe is cute…as in baby cute, not handsome hunk cute.

(Mr: Joe won't be there. They had a falling out.

Mrs: Really? Oh…that sucks.

Mr: Joe posted on his blog that Dan wasn't working hard so they wouldn't corner him

Mrs: Ok…fair enough. Efrain all the way then.)

Winner: Efrain, somehow..not really sure how

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez (21-3, 10-3 UFC) -230 vs. John "Hitman" Hathaway (12-0, 3-0 UFC) +190

Mr: Usually when a fighter gets beat up so bad that he leaves a division, he drops a weight class, but Sanchez has never been one to do things the usual way. After having his forehead do the best impression of a goat's vagina since Marvin Eastman, Sanchez pops back up to 170lbs, which is the weight class he is best suited for. Yes, he might be a tad small, but he went three rounds with each of Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck, and was never in real danger of being finished. He is not outclassed even if he is outsized. At 155lbs, he looked scrawny, weak and tired from the cut and just was not the same fighter. The Penn fight was the first time he got his ass handed to him though, so there is a chance that his already tenuous grip on reality might have slipped. Not sure if that is a good thing or bad thing for his career inside the cage though. Hathaway is a good, young fighter who has had good showings throughout his first year in the UFC, but a 3-0 start in the promotion always means a jump up in competition. He will be game, but wherever he wants to take the fight, Sanchez should be just a bit better.

Winner: Sanchez, Decision

Mrs:: Diego…..this guy (makes silly prayer motion Diego always does during intros, see photo on left). I hate Diego, but he's a pretty good fighter, so I'll take him over unknown random guy.

Winner: Diego, TKO

Todd Duffee (6-0, 1-0 UFC) -400 vs. Mike Russow (12-1, 1-0 UFC) +300

Mr: Stage two in the Duffee experiment. The guy looks like a million bucks, is already on the cover of non-MMA magazines, and has only been in the cage for a total of 7 seconds. I like his attitude about the situation though, suggesting that while Russow possesses the wrestling skills to push Duffee in what theoretically is his weakest area, he most likely will have worked on enough defense to not get into trouble. Working at Xtreme Couture probably isn't hurting his learning curve either. Look for Russow to be desperate to get the fight to the ground, get frustrated with a few failed attempts, and end up eating a big KO fist sooner rather than later.

Winner: Duffee, TKO, Round 1

Mrs: Who?

Mr: Duffee is the guy who set the record for quickest KO….7 seconds.

Mrs: Oooooooooooooh. Ok, if Russow can get it to the ground, he wins by submission, but I suspect he'll get clipped when he gets tired of going for the takedown.

Winner: Duffee, TKO

Antonio Rogerio "Minitoro" Nogueira (18-3, 1-0 UFC) -800 vs. Jason"The Hitman" Brilz (18-2-1, 3-1 UFC) +500

Mr: All credit to Brilz for stepping up and taking a big fight on short notice, but I don't think he is in line for the Rocky ending here. Li'l Nog looked as good as he ever has in dismantling a potential title contender in Luiz Cane, while Brilz has a loss to Elliot Marshall on his recent record. He's a good fighter, and stepping up will do him good in the eyes of the UFC brass, which is goodwill he'll need after the nasty KO he is fixing to take in this one.

Winner: Nogueira, KO, Round 1

Mrs: Little Nog, eh? I won't vote against Little Nog.

(Mr: He was supposed to fight Forrest Griffin, but he hurt his shoulder, so this other guy stepped up with about a month's notice.

Mrs: Huh….no chance for Bucko then. PS - I hope Forrest is ok.)

Winner: Little Nog, TKO

Michael "The Count" Bisping (18-3, 8-3 UFC) -210 vs. Dan Miller (11-3, 3-2 UFC) +150

Mr: Miller is in the middle of the issue that Hathaway is just starting on. He went 3-0 to start his UFC career, and was rewarded with harder fights. He's 0-2 against Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia since, but those are also the last and next title challengers, and Miller went to a decision with both. So, it is not like he is being totally outclassed in his step up in competition, but he is still coming up short. Given his personal problems that have come to light in the last few days regarding the health of his children, you would have to be a heartless bastard to cheer for anyone over him, let alone Bisping. However, Bisping is no chump. His boxing is good if not powerful, he avoids damage pretty well (usually) and his top control and ground and pound are verging on scary. Miller is definitely in this fight, and with his aggressive submissions game he is dangerous from any position, but I think Bisping ekes out the decision here.

Winner: Bisping, Decision

Mrs: Ooohhhhh…Bisping. Ok…both are coming off of losses, but I say Bisping. Not sure why, but I like this kid.

(Mr: Kid?

Mrs: What's wrong with that?

Mr: Well, he's older than you for one. And been around for a few years now too.

Mrs: I don't care…..I'm sticking with it. I like him.

Mr: Wait…I thought you hated him after he coached TUF?

Mrs: Well, I like him again now. At least for today, when I am making my picks.)

Winner: Bisping, Decision

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (30-7) EVEN vs. Rashad Evans (14-1-1) -13

Mr: After all the (mostly childish and unfunny) trash talk, these two finally get into the cage and should shut up long enough to put on a pretty good fight. I'd be concerned about Rampage having some ring rust, but judging from the shape he is in and the motivation of hate, I don't think that will be much of a factor. With both guys at their best, Jackson wins this fight nine times out of ten. Much cleaner, straighter punches, enough power to see if Rashad still has a stanky leg left in him,, and good enough wrestling….well, that wont' matter..this is going to be a fist fight. Evans has the power to win the fight with one punch, but that has become as much of a problem for him lately as it is an advantage. The Liddell KO seems to have made him fall in love with his power, but really, he loops his punches too much for the them to be as dangerous against most opponents. I actually see this fight going pretty similar to Rampage's revenge win over Wanderlei. If, and that is a big if, Evans is willing and able to get some takedowns, this could go into the later rounds, but if not…

Winner: Rampage, KO, Round 1

Mrs: You know I hate Rashad especially when he opens his mouth or tweaks his nipples, but I think he'll pull out the win here. Rampage has been so focused on his "Hollywood career" (if you could call it that), that I'd say he hasn't been training properly.

Winner: Rashad by TKO

(Mr: I'm watching the prime time shows…looks like Rampage has been training.

Mrs: Oh really? Ruh oh.

Mr: So, if Rampage is in shape, still picking Rashad?

Mrs: Yup. Who are you picking?

Mr: Rampage.

Mrs: Really? .WHo i s the favorite?

Mr: Rampage slightly, but a few people have Rashad the favorite.

Mrs: Oh, ok.

Mr: I'll bet you Rampage wins, and loser has to do Sunday dishes.

Mrs: Oh come on.I don't wanna take that bet.

Mr: No faith in Rashad huh?

Mrs: I just don't wanna do the dishes!!!!)

 

It was fun once, let's play again.

THe Mrs and I had a fun time discussing and predicting UFC 112, so we thought we would try it again.  For those who don't know - and really, why would you? - I am an MMA dork.  I am constantly on BE, I watch fights obsessively and try to think out every possible strategy a fighter might take into the cage with him.  The Mrs, on the other hand, usually starts getting hyped for the fights about a half hour before they come on.  That's not to say she's not a huge fan, because she is - she just doesn't obsess about like I (and probably a lot of you) do.  She's the very definition of the smart casual fan.

After UFC 112, I am up by four in the "Correctly Picked Winners" department, but since my couch isn't that comfortable, I won't dwell on that fact, and just get one with giving you our thoughts on Saturday's card:

Jason MacDonald (24-13, 5-5 UFC)  -420

 vs John Salter (4-1, 0-1 UFC) +390

 

Mr: Normally a last minute fill in comes into fights as big underdogs, but in this case, "The Athlete" comes in as a big favorite, in spite of having possibly the worst nickname in the sport.  Salter came up short when he played the fill in role in his UFC debut, so this should be make or break for him.  Luckily, he catches MacDonald in what will be his third fight in 45 days, with the previous two going to decisions. Also lucky for him, MacDonald will likely play into his strengths as a grappler. Both guys are fighting for their UFC careers here, and as much as it pains me to pick against a fellow Bluenoser, I think youth prevails.

 

Winner: Salter, Decision

 

Mrs: Given that I am Canadian, I have a soft spot for Jason "I have the worst nickname in the history of martial arts" MacDonald. He has a boat-load more experience than his opponent and is tough as nails. Oh, and did I mention, he's Canadian?

 

Winner: Jason MacBadNickname by submission.

 

 

Joey Beltran (11-3, 1-0 UFC) -110 

vs Tim Hague (10-3, 1-2 UFC) -120

 

 

Mr: Another undercard "Battle for Relevance".  Beltran won his debut, but that was more a case of Rolles Gracie looking awful rather than Beltran looking good,, so this will be the first time we get to see what he can do.  Hague's stand up isn't great though, and he can be KO'd, and that will play right into Beltran's game plan.  Hague probably should have won in his last fight, but I would guess this will be his UFC swan song, and that he will be going out on his back.

 

 

Winner: Beltran, KO

 

Mrs:  Ooh another Canadian eh?  Can I just pick all the Canadians to win?  Just kidding….ok...On paper Tim (the Canadian, eh) looks more well rounded, but closer inspection leads me to think there is no doubt a boot it, that he's gonna get his clocked cleaned.

 

Winner: Beltran by Mexicution..yeah I went there.

 

 

Joe Doerksen (44-12, 1-5 UFC) +390 

vs Tom Lawlor (6-2, 2-1 UFC) -430

 

Mr: Hopefully this fight doesn't get too dirty.  Sorry…couldn't resist.  That being said, Doerksen is a late fill in and is most likely going to make the worst record in the history of the UFC one loss uglier here.  Lawlor is really coming into his own as a fighter and looks like he might be a solid middle of the pack middleweight for the foreseeable future.  Doerksen goes back to being a journeyman.

 

Winner: Lawlor, Submission

 

Mrs:  What the F kind of last name is Doerkson?  No wonder he fights…he probably got beat up a lot as a child.  Ok so since the dork guy (is that mean to say?) is replacing Cradeur, he might not be ready for this fight. That being said, he has more experience than most people entering the Octagon. I don’t know…and to be honest, I’m not sure I care…I’m going to say Lawlor by beat-down.  I was going to say something about lawlor beating him by "wrestling" but then I figured he's been knocked out by wimps, so it should be pretty quick

 

 

Winner: Lawlor, TKO

 

 

 

Michael Guymon (11-3-1, 0-1 UFC)+390 

vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-4, 2-2 UFC) -430

 

Mr: Man…I get the feeling that Joe Silva is using this undercard to give out as many pink slips as possible.  A loss for either guy will be the end of their UFC run, and other than that, this could go either way.  Guymon obviously has some skills, but Yoshida is probably a step ahead across the board.  Or, at least he was until Koscheck turned his lights out and Anthony Johnson blitzed him.  He just doesn't look like he used to.  So, with that in mind, I'd put some money on Guymon.

 

Winner: Guymon, TKO

 

Mrs: I don't care how this fight goes...to be honest. My money is on the Joker, since the other dude can't seem to take a punch. 

 

Winner: Guymon by TKO.

Jonathan Goulet (27-10, 4-4 UFC) +660 

vs Marcus Davis(16-6, 8-3 UFC) -720

 

Mr: My immediate reaction was "HAHAHAHA!  GOULET!  HAHAHAH!"  But, then I stopped and thought about Davis, his age, being on a two fight losing streak and getting his lights turned out by Ben Saunders in his last outing.  Goulet has no chin though, and while Davis' chin may be deteriorating itself, he does still have the power to give Goulet a short stay in the cage.

 

Winner: Davis, KO, Round 1

 

Mrs:   Is this even really a fight? I think it's cute/good that the UFC is filling the card with Canadians, but you gotta make the fights close. C'mon.  Goulet will lose by bad hair..er..I mean TKO.

 

Winner: Davis, TKO

 

TJ Grant (15-3, 2-1 UFC) +380 

vs Johnny Hendricks (7-0, 2-0)-420

 

 

Mr:  The second Bluenoser of the card, and the second time I pick against one.  Grant is a very, very sold fighter - especially if a fight goes to the ground - but this is a bad fight for him.  Hendricks has more power on his feet, and his wrestling skill should be more than enough to control Grant if the fight goes down.  As long as he doesn't overreach going for the finish on the ground he should be able to avoid submissions easily enough to get the win here.  This should be the dark horse for Fight of the Night, so at least TJ will have that to take back to the Darkside with him (local humor).

 

Winner: Hendricks, TKO, Round 3

 

Mrs:   While Hendricks has the better record, my money is on Grant. He's tough as balls and is from the East Coast. (What more can you ask for?) 

 

Winner: Grant by TKO…maybe

 

Alan Belcher (15-6, 6-4 UFC) -135 

vs. Patrick Cote (13-5, 4-5 UFC) +105

 

Mr: Cote is making his return after blowing out his knee during Anderson Silva's first sign of mental issues in 2008.  While Cote has been rehabbing, Belcher has been improving and putting in good showings inside the Octagon.  Cote has never been very exciting, has a limited ground game and really only has the one big punch…which he never seems to land.  Belcher's game plan should be to outwork Cote and drain his gas tank, which shouldn't be too hard coming in off of the extended layoff.  He won't knock out the stiff stubbled Cote, but once the tank runs dry, Belcher should be able to pound out a stoppage.

 

Winner: Belcher, TKO, Round 2

 

Mrs:   I love watching Cote fight; he's cute, Canadian, and a pretty darn good fighter. Belcher won't be a walk in the park though; he too is a dynamic well-rounded MMA fighter. However this fight ends, it should be a good one. My very biased decision is for Cote (for being a cute French Canadian).

 

Winner: Cote, Decision

 

Sam Stout (15-5-1, 4-4 UFC) -220 

vs. Jeremy Stephens (16-5, 4-4 UFC) +180

 

Mr:  A battle between two mid level lightweights, hopefully this fight opens the PPV as it should be fun for however long it lasts.  Both guys are tough and have good power, but Stout's superior technique and conditioning should allow him to pull away as the fight goes on.  Plus, we get to play a little MMAth on this one - Stephens lost by submission to Joe Lauzon in February 2009, while Stout UD'd Lauzon in January.  Based on that, Stout should win as anytime two fights share a mutual opponent with all three fights within 24 months, you can guess the outcome.  And FINALLY, I can pick a Canadian.

 

Winner: Stout, TKO, Round 3

 

Mrs:  Usually if I don't really care about either fighter, I'd go for the Canadian...and this time won't be any different. 

 

Winner: Sam Stout by Decision (seems like a safe bet given his last 5 fights)

 

Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson (4-1, 1-0 UFC) -120 

vs. Matt Mitrione (1-0) +105

 

Mr:  Hard to believe these two are on a UFC PPV.  With only six fights between them, this is one of the most collectively inexperienced fights inside the Octagon in years.  All that being said, I think this is going to be the end of Kimbo as any sort of draw.  I am sure he's been working hard, but you can't train your chin.  Mitrione is far from a complete fighter, but he hits like a Mack truck and goes balls out for as long as he can.  He only needs to land one punch to turn Kinbo's lights out.  Hopefully they've both worked on their conditioning because if they haven't, and Kimbo avoids a few punches, this could get fugly.

 

Winner: Mitrione, KO you will be watching on highlights for the next few years, Round 1

 

Mrs: Kimbo has been way, way less than impressive since his MMA debut. I'd like to see him  win, but I don't think it's gonna happen. 

 

 

Winner: Meat-head, oh, I mean Matt, by decision.

 

Josh Koscheck (14-4, 12-4 UFC) -300 

vs. Paul Daley (23-8-2, 2-0 UFC) +220

 

Mr: The trash talk coming into this fight has been epic, but I have a feeling this fight is going to be VERY anti climactic.  There's a probably title shot on the line here, and both guys know it.  WIth that in mind, does anyone think there is any chance that: 1) Koscheck actually tries to stand up with Daley, and 2) is there any chance Daley can keep the fight standing up if Koscheck doesn't want to.  Me neither.  The hole in Daley's game is glaring and the blueprint on how to beat him is out there, and Koscheck is pretty much custom made to follow it.  Daley will always have a puncher's chance, but whenever that tired expression gets tossed around,  you know you're in trouble.  Just ask Dan Hardy.

 

Winner: Koscheck, Submission, Round 2

 

Mrs: Koscheck eh...mmmm...well, dude is a pretty good wrestler, but will he be able to handle Daley's punches? I'm gonna say no.

 

Winner: Daley, KO

(Mrs: You picked Koscheck?  Did you say by long, drawn out boring decision?

Mr: Sub.

Mrs: What? Really?

Mr: Well, Daley doesn't have much of a ground game.  I figure Koscheck will get him down, grind on him, hit him a few times, take his back and choke him out.

Mrs: I hope he gets knocked the F out before that happens)

 

 

Lyoto Machida (16-0, 8-0 UFC) -200 

vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-4, 2-2 UFC) +160

 

Mr:  Who makes the adjustments?  That's the major question.  Both fighters are too smart for this to be a complete repeat of the first fight, so the question is who has adjusted the game plan the right way.  Machida is obviously going to come more prepared to check some leg kicks, but even doing that is likely to take away his mobility over the course of the fight.  That being the case,, and the fact that Shogun got better and better on his feet as the first fight went on, I think we might get to see Machida utilize his ground game a lot more this time.  Given that TIto Ortiz snuck a DEEEEEEP triangle on him and that Shogun has a pretty good ground game himself, that could be even more dangerous.  As for Shogun, he has to come in with confidence.  He knows he won the fight (if not the match) the first time out, and knows that he is the first man to confuse Machida.  How will Machida respond to that?  Shogun knows how to handle the way Machida has traditionally fought, is a good enough counter fighter to deal with an aggressive switch from him, and has a good enough ground game to not be overly worried about going to the ground.  In every way but on the judge's score cards, Shogun handed Machida his first loss the last time out, and now he's coming to take the title he feels is already his.

 

Winner:  Shogun, Submission, Round 3

 

Mrs: I hope the judges have their eyes open this time. I can't see Rua letting this go to the judges scorecards this time. Machida can drink all the pee he wants, I don't think it'll help him this time. Rua by......

 

Winner:  Rua, TKO

 

During the lead up to UFC 112, Anderson Silva said he would be willing to cut to 170 and face Georges St. Pierre.  It was all we heard about through the broadcast of the main event, St. Pierre was at ring side and it was pretty clear that he was expected to do a face off with Silva post fight and make official the biggest fight the UFC has in their back pocket right now.

 

 

Then Silva had whatever happened to him happen in that main event, ruined his marketability in the short term, pissed off his boss and earned himself four months of listening to Chael Sonnen come up with creative ways to call him a douche.

 

But where does that leave St. Pierre now?

 

While Silva was looking for the super-fight because the middleweight division is a void of legitimate challengers, and has been for nearly its entire existence, St. Pierre is the figurehead of the, with all due respect to the light heavyweights, the most talent deep division in the sport.  St. Pierre's problem is not that he has no quality challengers, but rather that he has already beaten them all.  But with the Silva fight indefinitely delayed, what is next for "Rush"?

 

The obvious choice for his next challenger is the winner of the upcoming UFC 113 semi-main event between #4 welterweight Josh Koscheck and #9 Paul Daley.  Regardless of the outcome, neither fighter would be given much of a chance against St. Pierre.  Daley, given his punching power, would likely be pushed as a threat the same way his Rough House teammate Dan Hardy was - outclassed, but with a puncher's chance.  However, in the more likely event that Koscheck wins, there is almost no way to make a compelling pitch for that fight.  They fought less than three years ago with St. Pierre debuting his dominating wrestling on his way to an easy unanimous decision.  Koscheck has not impro ved anywhere near as much as St. Pierre has in the intervening years.

 

After that ostensible #1 contender's fight, the #'s 2 and 3 welterweights in the world will go head to head, most likely at UFC 115 in Vancouver, when Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch finally rematch.  With both having suffered sound and face swelling defeats to the champion over the past two years, this is a battle for best in class.  Neither showed in their first fight that they were anywhere near close to being a legitimate threat to St. Pierre's reign.

 

Perhaps the most interesting challenger waiting in the wings - if only because he has not fought St. Pierre yet - is Brazilian police officer Paulo Thiago.  He was thrown into the deep end of the division upon his debut in the UFC, and certainly showed he can swim with  KO win over Koscheck and lasting three full rounds with Fitch, before treading a little bit of water against Jakob Volkmann and Mike Swick in his last two fights.  He has looked impressive, and will face #10 Martin Kampmann at UFC 115.  A win there, if combined with a boring Koscheck/Daley fight, should catapult Thiago ahead of Fitch and Silva and get him a title shot by the end of the year.

 

 

It is sad that the most compelling fight on the horizon for St. Pierre is Thiago, and that is only because he has not already been beaten by the champion and isn't entirely one dimensional.  When these are the guidelines you use to judge challengers, you know the champion is more than just dominant - he is nearly transcendence.  

 

Of course, this could all change based on how Silva handles his "punishment" fight with Sonnen.  An impressive KO or even just an exciting, hard fought bout should be enough to put the super-fight train back on the tracks, and set up a huge New Year's show, perhaps in Montreal.  In the meantime though, St. Pierre will be left in limbo, having to either start lapping the field or dismantling the few members of the division he has not already.

 

On one hand, comparing the UFC and WWE is easy for casual fans to make - each company features tough looking men meeting head on in combat (be it choreographed or not), with cable shows building toward monthly pay per view cash cows with names like Extreme Rules, Invincible, Over the Limit, Relentless  and  Declaration.By extension of the two products having such artificial similarities, the comparison always extends to their respective head honchos - WWE's Vince McMahon and the UFC's Dana White.  But it is not just casual observers or UFC-detractors making these kind of statements anymore - just look at the BloodyElbow main page and see the article Kid Nate wrote about such comparisons being made.Asking if the comparisons are accurate is one thing, but I am left to wonder what the point of making such a comparison is.  Dana White is Dana White, and in order for the UFC to continue its upward mobility, he needs to stay in the role he has mapped out for himself.

 

By its very nature, the sport of MMA makes creating major stars who stand the test of time difficult.  It takes one punch or one bad fight to dig a hole that a previously marketable fighter might never be able to dig out from.  Chuck Liddell was the face of the sport for several years as he feasted on wrestlers who could not handle his striking, and a three fight rivalry with one who could - Randy Couture - helped launch the UFC into its current stratosphere, but it did not take long for him to go from a guaranteed headliner to an after thought for most fans.  Fans can forgive a loss - just as they did when Rampage Jackson left Liddell laying - but when that happened one more time against Rashad Evans, Liddell was done as a pay per view headliner.  While they will test the waters with him headlining the Vancouver event, they are doing it with a full season of TUF to hype the fight and still cannot be expecting huge numbers.

 

Unlike the WWE who can groom and market stars who they know - barring injury - will be around for a long time and build long term plans, White and the UFC brass only know what they have in a  fighter RIGHT NOW.  Georges St Pierre is considered the greatest welterweight of all time right now, but what if he had lost a split decision to Josh Koscheck in his first fight after losing to Matt Serra?  Would he be the "golden boy" that he is considered presently?  If he had lost, and the UFC gave him time to right the path of what suddenly would be a career at a crossroads, fans would most likely be complaining that he was being fed easy opponents so that the UFC could make more money off him (see Liddell's title reign for an example of this).

 

For another current, non-hypothetical case of this, look at the mess they have on their hands with Anderson Silva.  There is no way that a Silva/GSP match has not been on the radar of White et al. for months, and judging from the comments of announcers Mike Goldberg and Joe Rogan at UFC 112, if Silva had won in any way other than that in which he did, we would be talking about that fight as a definite and not a hypothetical.  WIth Goldberg and Rogan doing their best impression of St. Pierre uttering his classic "I am not imprezzed wit your per for manze" line, they obviously expected a face to face between the welterweight and middleweight champions post fight.  Silva's actions in the cage killed those plans though.  Suddenly, White goes from having the best fighter on the planet who fans get excited about - the guy who KO'd Forrest Griffin with a jab and destroyed James Irvin in what felt like seconds - and are left with a guy that nearly no one wants to see fight right now.  Yes, there are the 250,000 fans who will buy almost any fight they put on PPV, but no casual fan wants to shell out cash to see Silva right now.

 

 

This is where White comes in.  No matter who wins, or who loses, White is the constant.  He is a known commodity that will not change.  And not only is he a constant, he is really the ONLY constant from event to event.  In WWE, they can pick one performer and build each event around him for the next several years.  They know that barring injury, the same set of performers are available week to week, month to month.  The UFC is just the opposite - the best case scenario is that their best fighters enter the Octagon there, maybe four, times per year, and never in back to back events.  Even a fighter with infinite momentum and popularity can not sell an event he is not on, and so, enter Dana White, personality.

 

Fans trust - or at least understand - him.  We know he is there to promote the fight, and we know that he is prone to hyperbole, but fans know that and expect it.  But they also expect him.  They expect to see him out there promoting the sport and the individual events.  But, and this is the major difference between Mr's White and McMahon, once the lights go up on a PPV event, White more or less disappears.  Usually, his most prominent appearance on a PPV is put the title around the champion's waist.  When it comes time for action, he lets the fighters be the stars and takes a back seat.  

 

So is White the "shoot" version of McMahon?  Not really, but in the end, it does not matter at all.  White's role is indispensable to the UFC and the sport right now, and that does matter.

First, an explanation.

Like most of you reading this, I am a huge MMA fan, perhaps even bordering on the obsessive.  I over think just about every fight,  and when not thinking about upcoming fights, I watch old fights.  I am a quasi-historian of the UFC from my old gig doing retro reviews over at 411mania, so much so that Kid Nate quoting me in his History of MMA series was how I stumbled onto Bloody Elbow.  So, yeah, I'm a big MMA dork.

Luckily, my wife not only tolerates this in me, but she's actually a fan herself.  Be that as it may, she's a very different type of fan than I am, as you'll see below.  She can break down technique, knows sloppy stand up from good stand up, gets mad when crowds boo ground fighting, knows Mike Goldberg says the stupidest things imaginable and even has a favorite fighter (GSP - I try to keep my jealousy in check).  However, she doesn't obsess like I  do (and probably you, too).  She's the epitome of the smart, casual fan.

We usually end up having some interesting discussions and arguments over fights, and thought it might be entertaining to share them and our picks for UFC 112 with you.  Though, if she gets more picks right than I do, I may never hear the end of it from her.

 

 

Mostapha Al Turk (6-5, 0-2 UFC) -120 vs. Jon Madsen (4-0, 1-0 UFC) -105

 

Mr:  I think Madsen's path to victory is pretty clear cut in this one.  Al Turk is a less than stellar wrestler, while that is the best tool Madsen has in the toolbox, if not his only one.  Al Turk might have a chance if he's able to keep the fight standing, but I just don't think he'll be able to.  Look for Madsen to take him down at will and have good enough top control to avoid any submission attempts from the bottom.  The only question at that point becomes are we in for three uneventful rounds of "just enough action to win" ground and pound, or has Madsen worked hard enough on his skills to actually get a finish in his first fight on  a big show?  Personally, whether it's through improved finishing skills or just wearing Al Turk out, I don't see this going to the judges.

 

Winner: Madsen, TKO, Round 3

 

Mrs: I don't know either of these guys.  I'd put my money on the guy with the better record...unless one of them had a super strength that is the other ones super weakness.   Guess my vote is for Madsen.

 

( MR: Madsen is a wrestler....bald pudgy dude form the heavyweight TUF season....AL Turk is that furry guy that Cro Cop poked in the eye). 

 

Ick to both.  Turk lost to Kongo, who has a cute accent, but isn't what I would call a great fighter. My vote is still for Madsen, but most of Al Turk's losses are to punches.  Can Madsen punch????  Either way, it seems like Al Turk is going to come out swinging.

 

Winner: Madsen, Decision….fi he doesn't' get knocked out!

 

 

Paul Kelly  (9-2, 3-2 UFC)-115 vs. Matt Veach  (11-1, 1-1 UFC)-125

 

Mr: Veach made a good accounting of himself when he stepped in on short notice against Frankie Edgar at the TUF 10 finale, but the holes in his game that Edgar exploited (poor defensive boxing and a questionable chin) are the exact ones that Kelly will look to take advantage of as well.  The problem for Kelly, though, is that he is no Edgar on the feet, and he is certainly no Edgar in terms of wrestling.  Veach was able to take Edgar down several times in the first round,including a few  emphatic slams.  Coming off his first pro loss to Edgar, Veach knows he can be tagged, so look for him to rely on his wrestling and ground the fight early.  Kelly is certainly a tough and durable fighter, but in spite of his reputation as a brawler, he's lacking the finishing power he'll need to take out Veach, but he is tough enough to last three rounds on the bottom if Veach doesn't submit him.

 

Winner: Veach, Round 2, Submission

 

Mrs: I don't really like either of these guys...the 11-1 guy has only ever fought one "known" fighter. and lost.  Even thought Kelly will have the cuter accent of the two, I have to go with the American.  

 

Winner: Veach by Submission

 

 

DaMarques Johnson( 10-7, 1-1 UFC) -115 vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1, 3-1 UFC) -125 

 

Mr: It's always fun when two guys share a recent opponent, as you get to do a little MMAth.  In this case, both guys fought Edgar Garcia in hard fights in 2009, with Blackburn getting a split decision victory, and Johnson getting a submission of the night victory with a first round triangle in a war.  Going by that, you'd think Johnson might have a bit of an edge in this one, except that Blackburn has only lost by submission once, and that was five years ago.  And while Amir Sadollah battered Blackburn for three rounds in his last fight, Johnson doesn't have the stand up skills - especially the kicks - to do the same.  While I think the fight is going to be competitive, look for Blackburn to control enough of the stand up exchanges to get the decision.

 

Winner: Blackburn, Decision

 

Mrs: Oh God…Blackburn has a terrible nickname.  I liked Johnson on the show, but he got tapped out by that British bloke.  He looked strong, but a bit cocky.  This has the potential to be a boring fight.  Blackburn usually wins by TKO, Johnson only has two TKO losses….so I'm going to say…..

 

Winner: Blackburn, TKO (actually, I think it will be a boring decision, but I'm trying to be optimistic)

 

 

Nick Osipczak (5-0, 2-0 UFC)+110 vs. Rick Story (9-3, 2-1 UFC) -120 

 

Mr:  Two good young fighters with the chance at a decent future in the division ahead of them going head to head always makes for a good fight.  Osipczak looked great in dismantling Matt Riddle in his last outing, but should have a much harder time with Story just based on their similar skill sets.  Both guys have some power in their fists, but both are more than comfortable looking for the win on the ground.  Their ground skills could possibly negate each other, leaving us with a stand up battle.  While neither guy is a world beater on their feet, they are both good enough to make this an entertaining fight.  In the end though, I think the experience of Story wins out.

 

Winner: Story, TKO, Round 2

 

Mrs: Gotta go for the Brit.  Even though Rick's nickname made me chuckle, and he has a bunch of fights under his belt, and he doesn't seem to quit, ever... my money is on the Brit. I think the easy way out is to say it'll be a decision loss. But I'm going to say RNC first round.

 

Winner: Osipczak, RNC, Round 1

 

 

Paul Taylor (10-5-1, 3-4 UFC) -420 vs. John Gunderson (22-7, 0-1 UFC)+380 

 

Mr:  While Taylor has always been exciting in his UFC bouts, I just don't see why he's such a huge favorite in this fight.  Gunderson is by no means a world beater, but he is experienced, tough, good on the ground and has fought regularly at 155.  This will be Taylor's first time making the cut in the UFC, and when you add in the travel involved getting to Abu Dhabi and the heat in the region, you have to be concerned that it might be a rough one for him.  Taylor showed some power at 170lbs, but it wasn't enough to put anyone in the division away, so unless he manages to carry ALL of that power to 155, he is likely going to have to rely on flurries of punches to grind Gunderson down.  The problem with that is that if he opens up,  the durable Gunderson - who has never been TKO'd - will have a chance to get the fight to the ground, where he'll have a decided advantage.  If Marcus Davis could catch Taylor, Gunderson can as well.  Just based on the odds, this is your upset pick.

 

Winner:  Gunderson, Submission, Round 2

 

Mrs: Quick submission by "guns" Gunderson. Terrible…oh it's worse than I thought! Quick Guns!!?!?!  Terrible.  Meh…I don't really care about these two…is that wrong?  Shiiiit...Taylor's last five fights have come by way of decision. Win or Lose.  Wait….Gunderson has only been in the UFC one fight, and he lost.  I'm guessing Taylor is the favorite here…ok. keep with his boring past and say decision taylor.

 

Winner: Taylor, Decision

 

 

Phil Davis (5-0, 1-0 UFC) -600 vs. Alexander Gustafsson (9-0, 1-0 UFC)+400 

 

Mr:  By no means is Phil Davis a complete fighter at this stage in his career.  As a matter of fact, he's pretty much one dimensional, and certain fighters would eat him alive right now.  Does anyone think Gustafsson is that fighter?  In spite of the good striking and excellent power he's shown so far in his career, he's unlikely to be able to deal with Davis' wrestling ability.  If the heavy fisted Brian Stann couldn't touch Davis or stay off his back, is Gustafsson likely to fare much better?  He'll have the puncher's chance, but…

 

Winner: Davis, Decision

 

Mrs: Hard to say - they are both newcomers to the UFC. Gotta go with the dude who has more fights. The mauler by TKO. (When I don't know either fighter I'd usually pick the cuter one, but not this time - I'll go with the guy with the better record, oh and the cute accent!.)

 

Winner: Gustafsson, TKO

 

 

Mark Munoz (7-1, 2-1 UFC) -185 vs. Kendall Grove (11-6, 6-3 UFC) +155

 

Mr:  You're going to hear about Grove beating high level wrestler Jake Rosholt a lot in the build up to this fight, but keep in mind one thing about that - Mark Munoz is NOT Jake Rosholt.  Munoz got a big wake up call when Matt Hamill KO'd him in his UFC debut.  He hooked up with possibly the best camp in the world right now and he's become a much more complete mixed martial artist in a shorter period of time than most manage.  He's looked very good since losing to Hamill and I honestly don't see any way that Grove wins this.  Munoz's stand up is more technical and more powerful, which will likely let him get inside of Grove's reach.  If Grove tries to open up with kicks, he's likely to find himself on his back.  Grove might have an advantage in the submission game, but Munoz would have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to have picked up a few tricks training with Black House.

 

Winner: Munoz, TKO, Round 2

 

Mrs: Ooooh…You know how I feel about Da Spider - I say Kendall Grove by submission because I have a crush on him!  Hey…he actually spells his nickname "Spyder"….that's kind of lame, but I won't hold it against him.  PS: "The philippines wrecking machine" is almost as bad as "the Athlete" BRUTAL. .

 

 (Mrs: Do you think Kendall will get KO'd? 

Mr: Yes, yes I do.

Mrs: Oh oh…it's a definite possibility.  You're mean.

Mr: Munoz has been training with Silva and the Nogueira brothers.

Mrs:  Double Oh Oh.  See…I don't know this shit…..And I don't care!  GO KENDALL!  GO KENDALL!)

 

 

Winner: Grove by Submission

 

 

Terry Etim  (14-2, 5-2 UFC)-165 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4, 2-2 UFC) +135 

 

Mr: I keep waiting for Dos Anjos good jiu jitsu game to equal a submission, but I'm not sure that will ever actually happen.  He's turning into a decision king, but at least he's been making fights interesting if not outright exciting lately, but this might be the fight he finally gets the tap.  Etim might be the favorite coming in, but he likes to hit the ground himself, only he's been doing it with lower levels of the 155lb division.  Outside of a win over Sam Stout, there isn't a standout name on his resume, while Dos Anjos gave Tyson Griffin a handful last year.  Etim's on a hot streak, but I think that ends here.

 

WInner: Dos Anjos, Sub, Round 1

 

Mrs: I don't really know….I'll say Etim by submission.  He seems pretty good and has been in the UFC for a while.  I have nothing witty say…no one has a nickname to make fun of.  Too bad.

 

(Mr:  Did you notice that Dos Anjos looks like Frankenstein?

Mrs:  Ha!….He does….he really does!)

 

Winner: Etim, Submission

 

 

Matt Hughes (43-7, 16-5 UFC) -500 vs. Renzo Gracie (13-6-1, UFC Debut) +350

 

Mr:  I find it funny that the oldest man on the card is the only guy making his UFC debut in this one.  Do you think the dreaded "Octagon Jitters" will come into play here?  I don't either, but what will come into play is that Renzo hasn't fought in 3 years and this will be his most competitive fight since he fought BJ Penn in 2005.  A Gracie always has the "submitter's chance", but I don't see Hughes leaving many openings here.  As much as I dislike Hughes, he's like the 50 year old golfer making the jump to the Senior Tour here - he's going to dominate.  I don't see this fight being even very close.  Hughes is still a strong wrestler with good top control, and I think Renzo is leaving with a lumpy face.

 

Winner: Hughes, TKO, Round 2

 

Mrs:  Blah…..I would never, ever pick Matt Hughes (except for that time he was fighting Matt Serra, who I HATE!).  I am just not a Matt Hughes fan.  And I never will be.  I personally think both guys are a bit old for the sport and should probably hand up their gloves.  I've never seen Gracie fight, so I'm basing this off of stats and what not.  But be sure - I will not be rooting for Matt Hughes. 

(Mrs: Just brought up Renzo's pick.  Not what I was expecting at all.  Weird.

Mr: What were you expecting him to look like?

Mrs: Is it bad to say "More Brazilian?"  Ok…back to the fight)

 

 Renzo hasn't had a fight since 2007???  That's a long time…jeesh.  Matt Hughes is a wrestler  - so he's most comfy on the ground. But....Renzo is a JJ dude- also will want to be on the ground.  If Hughes is stronger - and I expect him to be - he should be able to control Renzo on the ground and GP his way to viceroy.

 

 

Winner: Hughes, TKO  (BUT I WILL NOT BE ROOTING FOR HIM.  In fact, I'll be rooting for RG to arm bar his arm right off!  Is that mean?)

 

 

 

BJ Penn (15-5-1, 11-4-1 UFC) -1000 vs. Frankie Edgar (11-1, 6-1 UFC) +500 

 

Mr:  On their feet, Penn is the better boxer with better power.  In the clinch, Penn is the stronger man with better balance.  On the ground, Penn has better top control, ground and pound and submissions.  Edgar MIGHT have a wrestling edge on paper, but Penn is nearly impossible to takedown unless you have a three letter nickname.  Edgar is a very, very, very good fighter, but this is the worst championship match up he could have ever asked for.  I imagine this will go like Penn's other title fights - work the jab, tire the other guy out, and then go for the kill in the third or fourth.

 

Winner:  Penn, Submission, Round 3

 

Mrs:  Unless BJ is fighting GSP, I would not usually vote against BJ. He's a freakishly good fighter. He can get himself into some trouble when he underestimates his opponents, so I hope he didn't do that this time. Should be short and sweet. BJ by Annihilation.

 

Winner: Penn, by annihilation?

 

Anderson Silva (25-4, 10-0 UFC) -850 vs. Demian Maia (12-1, 6-1 UFC)+600

 

Mr: IWe all know Maia has one chance here - get the fight to the ground, avoid guard, get the submission.  That's it.  He'll be eaten alive on his feet, and he knows that.  Unfortunately for Maia, not only do the fans know what he needs to do….so does Silva.  Rushing in on Silva is a BAD idea - just ask Forrest Griffin - but Maia can't stay outside and wait for a chance for very long.  And it's not like Silva is weak in the clinch - just ask Rich Franklin.    I love Maia and think his submissions are things of beauty, and as much as I'd love to see one Saturday night, it's just not going to happen.

 

Winner: Silva, KO, Round 1

 

Mrs: I can't see it going any other way than a Silva destroying Maia. Maia has a jiu jitsu equivalent of a "punchers chance" at wining this fight. Good luck to you sir. Overall, I think it'll be a typical (bordering on boring) fight and it will be completely one-sided. If I decided to have a nap mid way through, I'm sure no one would fault me for it.

 

Winner: Silva, One sided and drawn out beating

Athletes often put their foot firmly in their mouth when they step out of their comfort zone and comment on political matters, but rarely do they manage to create controversy in two countries at once.

As in his many athletic endeavors, it looks like Brock Lesnar is an exception to this rule.

While commenting on his illness and recovery Tuesday on ESPN, Lesnar made his displeasure with the treatment he received at a Canadian hospital clear, and in a later teleconference, referred to Canada as resembling a "third world country".  While it set off an interesting and entertaining debate on many forums (and right here on Bloody Elbow as well), it also has drawn the ire of the CEO of the Brandon Regional Health Authority, the hospital that Lesnar felt he would die at if he stayed.

In the Globe & Mail article, Carmel Olson goes so far as to say. "We have checked this particular health record and were are quite confident that the correct diagnosis was given and the best course of treatment offered.”  This contradicts Lesnar's claim that he was not treated properly or diagnosed while in Canada, and had to speed to Bismark, ND before getting a diagnosis.

As fans, we should all be happy that Lesnar will be back in the Octagon in the next few months, though if he does so in Canada, he is likely to be booed out of the building.  As a political commentator, Lesnar should perhaps stop.

Following his upset victory over Mike Swick last weekend, does Dan Hardy deserve a title shot? 

If we are being entirely honest, the answer is no.  In reality though, the welterweight division is a bit of a mess right now as far as challengers go. Jon Fitch is working towards another shot, but he's not there yet. A win in his upcoming rematch with Thiago Alves will likely put him in that position, but he has to win first.  As for Alves, he will need another win or two beyond a victory over Fitch to get back in discussion for a title shot.  Josh Koscheck is still trying to rebuild himself after that KO loss to Paulo Thiago, and champion Georges St. Pierre handled him pretty easily in their fight in 2007. The Swick/Maritn Kampmann contest was supposed to decide a title challenger, but that got blown out of the water, and then Kampmann got blown out of the water by Paul Daley. Daley could become an attractive option as a future challenger, but only has one fight in the UFC and needs another win or two to get to a title shot.

That leaves Anthony Johnson, who couldn't make the 170lb limit in his last outing. He'll need to show 1)that he can still make the weight limit, and 2)handle the BIG step up in competition he's making against Koscheck. If he does both of those, he's realistically still another good win or two away from a title shot in an ideal world. He's still young, and you get the feeling the UFC would love to have Johnson as a centerpiece of either the welter or middleweight divisions.

As for Hardy, he's built up a bit of a fan base with a run of exciting fights. Does he finish them all? No, but when you can put on exciting three round fights, you don't necessarily need to in order to build up your reputation. On one hand, a win is a win is a win, and on the other, an exciting decision is just as good as a KO. The man is also a talker. He's already trash talked GSP a bit in the lead up to the Swick fight, and expect him to keep that up in building to title shot. Since he'll be the first Brit to challenge for a title, the UFC can do the fight in London or in Montreal and bring in a huge gate, and probably some solid PPV numbers.

And then GSP will smash him. It's a good comeback fight for GSP. Hardy can do some damage with his fists, but GSP with take him down and pound a win fairly easily. You get a PPV main event, use Hardy's limited appeal to it's full ability and you don't risk damaging their lone remaining, easy to deal with, easy to market, top 3 pound for pound fighter. Plus, you also don't rush a strong challenger and waste a big money fight. Koscheck's visibility and notoriety could make him a good challenger with a couple of wins, and Johnson takes his first real step towards being a contender Saturday by being in the semi-main event for the first time.

So, in a pure 'sport' sense,  Hardy probably doesn't deserve a title shot. But it's not entirely outlandish seeing as GSP has cleaned out the top of the division already, and it makes good business sense.

_________________

Locked down.  After UFC 100 & 101, that term has been thrown around to describe all five of the weight divisions.  Each has a champion that many feel is unbeatable by every challenger in his weight class.  With lightweight champion BJ Penn, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar each putting in dominant performances over their top contenders, middleweight champion Anderson Silva on a 10 fight win streak after moving up and destroying Forrest Griffin, and light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida looking untouchable so far in his career, many fans - and internet pundits - have started to wonder if any of them will ever lose their title in the cage.

But is there any actual truth to the notion?

While these five are almost certainly the most talented and dominant group of champions in the company's history,  it was not long ago that the same was said about Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres in the WEC.  A quick look at the recent and distant past tells us throwing the term 'Locked Down' is more than a bit premature for most of the divisions.

_____________________________________________________________________________


The Champion - Anderson Silva

If you look up dominant in a dictionary, whichever one does not have a picture of Georges St. Pierre is going to have a picture of Anderson Silva.  Since destroying Rich Franklin for the title at UFC 64 three years ago, Silva has made five consecutive title defenses, tying him for the most all time.  Wedged in among his title fights are 3 non-title wins as well, two of which have come in ventures into the light heavyweight class.  Add in his title win over Franklin in their first fight and his debut KO over Chris Leben, and Silva is 10-0 in the UFC.  While there are a myriad of fans out there who like to point out the flaws they believe Silva has and that he may not be as good as everyone thinks, a 10-0 record with six wins coming in title fights kind of speaks for itself.  So does the fact that, prior to Silva taking over the division, no one had defended the belt more than twice.

Perhaps more than any other champion, Silva represents a huge step up in talent over his contenders.  He has already beaten two of his top three contenders in title fights in the past two years, and the talent field in the division is shallow enough that, even though he is now splitting time between 185 and 205, he has to begin recycling challengers.  

Unlike BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre who are unlikely to move out of their divisions in the near future, Silva's most compelling fights seem be on the horizon at 205lbs.  It's unlikely the UFC would want him to relinquish the middleweight title, but match ups against the likes of Quinton Jackson, Rashad Evans and Chuck Liddell are fights that would draw much better than any of Silva's potential title challengers.  Randy Couture has even made mention of dropping back down to light heavyweight to take on Silva.  The main reason Silva is unlikely to make the full time move, though, is that his friend and training partner Lyoto Machida is the current champion of the division.  

Even with a good portion of his future likely to be spent at light heavyweight, Silva's title reign is not without some challenges.

The Next In Line:  Dan Henderson

The former two division champion in Pride,  Dan Henderson has already had a shot at Silva.  After losing in a light heavyweight title unification bout to Quinton Jackson, Henderson took on Silva to unify the middleweight titles.  He used his wrestling effectively to ground Silva in the first round, but in the second found Silva all over his back raining punches down before being choked out.

Now, after a profile raising stint on the Ultimate Fighter show and a destructive KO of rival coach Michael Bisping on the most watched PPV in UFC history, Henderson looks like he is going to get a second shot.  While he is certainly confident and there is no doubt that he will come prepared, it is hard to see what will be different this time around.  Even though he won the first round of their initial meeting and was active enough on top not to get stood up, Henderson did very little actual damage to Silva before getting tapped out.  Henderson always has a punchers chance with his sledgehammer of a right, but with the speed and head movement that Silva has demonstrated against opponents, is there any chance he could actually get caught by it?

 Like Silva, Henderson has the size and skill to be  a top level competitor in the light heavyweight division, so size is a non-factor between the two.  And still, if Henderson - who is easily the #2 man in the division - were to pull out a win it would be an epic upset.  Brian Bowles recently showed that those do happen sometimes, but they are rare for a reason.

Future Challengers

UFC 102 will play a role in the future of the division when Nate Marquardt takes on Demian Maia in what was previously thought to be a #1 contender's fight before Henderson's title shot was announced.  Marquardt is looking to get his second shot against Silva.  Prior to his first at UFC 73, Marquardt was thought to be the exact kind of middleweight who could give Silva fits.  It did not work out quite that way, as Silva was able to keep his distance and devastated thechallenger just before the end of the first round.  Marquardt has looked more dynamic since that loss, and has said Silva has never fought the Marquardt that exists now.  How much of that is a fighter talking himself up or is legitimate confidence remains to be seen, but Marquardt is still the kind of fighter who could give Silva problems.  He has very good power in his hands, and has worked hard to become a diversified striker who can throw opponents off balance with odd striking combinations.  He is also about as big and muscular as a 185lb man can be, so he might actually be strong enough to muscle Silva around a bit.  On the ground, Marquardt is good defensively and a finisher, so he would have a shot there as well.  All these are hypothetical though, with the facts being that Silva handled him fairly easily the first time out.

As for Maia, his jiu jitsu is probably a level beyond anyone else in the sport right now, while his striking is light years behind the likes of Silva.  He has stated publicly that he uses his striking the way some fighters use "anti-wrestling."  He uses strikes just to get close to an opponent so that he can start using his jiu jitsu.  Against the likes of Silva, that could be a huge problem.  The long, lanky, powerful Silva has shown the ability to make people pay for trying to get close to him, and unless you have some striking to worry him, you are unlikely to accomplish a take down (the Travis Lutter fight does not count in this discussion....Silva was fighting on two bad knees).  If he did manage to get a fight against Silva to the ground though, all bets are off.  Silva is no slouch on the ground, but Maia is one of the best jiu jistu practitioners in the world.  

Many actually had expected Maia to be Silva's next opponent, but after the Thales Leites debacle, the UFC was hesitant to put Silva in against another light hitting jiu jitsu expert.  If he wins against Marquardt - especially if in exciting fashion - he will be all but guaranteed a title shot.  When that would happen would be a good question though.  Silva has Henderson lined up, and it's hard to imagine that the UFC will not pull the trigger on one of the light heavyweight superbouts before Silva defends the title again.  That would move his next title fight until the later parts of 2010, so whoever wins out of Maia and Marquardt will likely have another fight in between.

That fight might be against the winner of UFC 104's Yushin Okami/Chael Sonnen showdown. Okami is the last man to hold a victory over Silva, and he is another fighter who many think has a style to give Silva fits.  An incredibly strong wrestler, the assumption is that Okami would be able to put Silva down and grind out a victory.  In their Rumble on the Rock fight that ended with Silva being dq'd for an illegal kick, Okami was not presenting that many issues for Silva.  He did score a takedown, but was unable to do much damage on the ground.  The fight was certainly inconclusive, and it very well could be that Okami could grind away on Silva to a win, but Silva's striking has grown by leaps and bounds in the last 3 years, while Okami is essentially the same fighter.  Okami has an impressive 7-1 record in the UFC, and likely deserves a title shot, but came up short in his one shot against the upper level of the division when he lost to Rich Franklin with a title shot on the line. He should be able to beat Sonnen in a battle of wrestlers, but if Sonnen moves in the possible mini tournament, he is likely to handled easily by Marquardt or Maia.

Of course, the newly signed Vitor Belfort might have something to say about who gets the next title shot, if he's able to get past former middleweight champion Rich Franklin at UFC 103 and if he stays at middleweight as expected.  The UFC 103 bout is going to be a catch weight bout, as the UFC has somehow stalled out Franklin's move to 205 and made him a de facto gatekeeper for big name fighters to get at Silva.  Beflort has looked rejuvenated and fantastic as a middleweight, and a win over Franklin likely moves him ahead of the previously mentioned four fighters, and might even be a big enough fight to have Silva defend the title in two straight fights.  He has a chance against Franklin thanks to his hand speed and power, but against Silva his aggressiveness is likely to have him napping on the map sooner rather than later.  An appropriate comparison might be what Machida did to Thiago Silva in their fight.

Franklin's last opponent could also be a factor in the division.  Wanderlei Silva is making the move to 185lbs, but having lost to Franklin, he will  have to build up to a title shot from scratch.  At his age and with no fight currently scheduled, time could be a huge hurdle for Wanderlei to climb.  Not to mention that he is 1-5 in his last six fights.  Still a tough fight for anyone, "The Axe Murder's" best days are certainly behind him.

Prior to his devastating loss to Henderson at UFC 100, Michael Bisping was on the verge of  a title shot, but that fight might have exposed him.  Bisping is a good fighter, but he has very little power,his wrestling is not that strong and now there have to be questions about his chin.  Henderson was the first to knock him out, but Bisping has been rocked in several fights against lesser opponents.  If he was unable to deal with the loaded up and telegraphed right hand that Henderson nearly decapitated him with, he would be lucky to last through the opening minute of a fight with Silva.  No need to worry though, as that is unlikely to ever happen at this point.

The rest of the division is made up of either fighters who are good, but have already reached their potential, or fighters who seem to have the talent to make waves but have questions all around them.  The first category would cover the likes of Nate Quarry, Patrick Cote, Kendall Grove,  Ed Herman, Chris Leben and Drew McFedries.  These fighters are likely to be showing up on cards for the next while but will never be factors at the upper reaches of the division.  At this point, the high points of these fighters' futures might be stopping younger fighters from moving up.  

The latter group is made up of the likes of Yoshiro Akiyama, Alan Belcher, CB Dolloway and Dan Miller.  Each is a talented fighter who could be a visible factor in the division if they are able to work on their weaknesses and string together a few wins in a row.  Most likely though, these fighters will end up in the same pile as the former group.


Outside of fighters like Okami and Maia who have specialized skill sets that could potentially pose a problem for Anderson Silva, the middleweight cupboard really does appear to be bare.  It has traditionally been the weakest division in the UFC, and having a preternaturally talented fighter like Silva in charge of it has only served to highlight that.  When the likes of Patrick Cote and Thales Leites are title contenders, you know you have depth problems.  Outside the UFC there is not much more talent that would pose a threat, as the likes of Robbie Lawler, "Jacare" Souza and Kazuo Mizaki do little to suggest Silva might be toppled anytime soon.  Unlike the welterweight and lightweight divisions, there does not even appear to be a batch of younger fighters just in need of seasoning before making a run at the title.  Silva has beaten everyone at the top of the division save Okami and Maia, and other than those two, there are no new challenges on the horizon.  One intriguing possibility might be more fighters dropping down from light heavyweight to compete at 185, as rumors of Stephan Bonnar, Rashad Evans and others making the move have been floating around recently.  But even with a new influx of talent, it is hard to see right now who could take the title from Silva.

Locked down.  After UFC 100 & 101, that term has been thrown around to describe all five of the weight divisions.  Each has a champion that many feel is unbeatable by every challenger in his weight class.  With lightweight champion BJ Penn, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar each putting in dominant performances over their top contenders, middleweight champion Anderson Silva on a 10 fight win streak after moving up and destroying Forrest Griffin, and light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida looking untouchable so far in his career, many fans - and internet pundits - have started to wonder if any of them will ever lose their title in the cage.

But is there any actual truth to the notion?

While these five are almost certainly the most talented and dominant group of champions in the company's history,  it was not long ago that the same was said about Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres in the WEC.  A quick look at the recent and distant past tells us throwing the term 'Locked Down' is more than a bit premature for most of the divisions.

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The Champion:  Georges St. Pierre

Josh Koscheck. Matt Hughes. Matt Serra. Jon Fitch. BJ Penn. Thiago Alves.  

Those are the last six opponents for welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre.  Not many champions, let alone professional fighters have fought that level of quality fighters in a row. At the time of their respective fights, each opponent was a top ranked welterweight.  More impressively, they are still top five welterweights now, with the exception of Serra, who was the champion at the time, and Penn, the current lightweight champion.

And GSP beat them all rather...handily.

After his impressive victory over Alves at UFC 100 last month - dominating for a full five round even after suffering a groin injury in the 3rd - the general feeling is that St. Pierre has very little challenges left at 170lbs.  As dominant a run as he is currently on though, this may be an exaggeration of the truth.  Remember, this is St. Pierre's second title reign...the first having been ended by a right hand thrown by Serra of all people.  And that shocking upset was just 2 years ago, and also at a time when St. Pierre was considered "the next evolution in fighting."

While St. Pierre has definitely matured and tried to take the out of the cage factors that played a hand in that loss out of the equation, it was still a right hand from what should have been - and later proved to be - an over-matched opponent that took the title from him.  While his skills are undeniable, and one avenged loss certainly does not define a career, it does mean that St. Pierre CAN be taken out with a punch.  Seeing it done before and doing it again are two incredibly different situations, but knowing it can be done has to give a lot of fighters hope.

And it's not like St. Pierre has been untouchable.  While the fight with Fitch was a clear cut victory for the champion, that title defense in particular showed that St. Pierre is not going to steamroll everyone in the division.  While he won without ever really being in danger, and Fitch certainly took the worst of the beatings that night, St. Pierre did not come out unscathed.  Two black eyes and a nasty knot on his forehead bore witness to the damage that Fitch was able to do over five rounds, and it's unlikely that St. Pierre felt entirely "dominant" after that fight.  Of course, the fight was a unanimous decision win over the second best fighter in the division and an easy top 15 or 20 pound for pound talent.

The fact that the fight went five rounds is another factor to take into account when considering how firm St. Pierre's hold is atop the division.  With the exception of his recent destructions of Hughes and Serra, he seems to have been game planning for decision victories since the loss to Serra.  Koscheck went a full three rounds, Fitch and Alves both went five rounds and, while the Penn fight ended after the fourth, St. Pierre made no effort to finish the fight, instead just constantly grinding on the smaller Penn.  The type of effort it takes to constantly go five rounds against the best in the world has to start to wear on a fighter eventually.

The fact that has been dominating against the best welterweights in the world have many calling for St. Pierre to move up a weight class.  At middleweight, he could eventually have the champion vs champion SuperFight with Anderson Silva.  While St. Pierre might have some level of success against the mid tier of the division, it's unlikely that the fight with Silva would be a competitive one.  While Silva is not undersized for a light heavyweight, St. Pierre would be a smaller middleweight.  He would most likely be on par size wise with Ricardo Almeida at UFC 101, who  after winning his fight, announced a drop in weight class so that he would not get "manhandled".  Giving up such size and reach to possibly the most powerful non-heavyweight striker in the sport is about as bad a mix as possible.

Besides....challenges do remain at 170.

The Next in Line:  Martin Kampmann or Mike Swick

Two former middleweights who made the cut in weight after being dominated by larger opponents (that sounds familiar...), Martin Kampmann and Mike Swick will meet at UFC 103 on September 19th.  The winner of the fight has been all but officially promised the next shot at St. Pierre's title, which thankfully all but confirms that the UFC has no real intention of putting the St. Pierre/Silva fight on anytime soon.

 

Kampmann made his welterweight debut at UFC 93 with a second round TKO of Alexandre Barros.  But it was at UFN 18 that he made his first real statement in the division, defeating the highly touted former WEC champion Carlos Condit in a very competitive battle that many have on the short list for fight of the year so far.  A former Danish Muay Thai champion who is known as a dangerous striker, Kampmann has worked hard at developing his submission game and now has nearly as many tap out victories (5) as he does (T)KO wins (7).  In his UFC career, those numbers are 3 submissions to 2 TKOs.  This will mark the third time in his UFC career that Kampmann has been on the verge of a title shot, the first being taken away due to a knee injury that kept him out of the cage for 18 months and the second because of a one sided loss to Nate Marquardt.  It was that loss to a larger opponent that made him move down, and at this class he could offer some interesting challenges to St. Pierre.  A very well rounded fighter, Kampmann is unlikely to be blown through by St. Pierre like Serra and Hughes were, but he does has the wrestling skill to deal with St. Pierre's takedown.  And while Kampmann has a good submission game, he does most of his work from the top, or by reversals, both of which are situations not likely to happen against St. Pierre.  The only real questions are can he land a shot before being taken down, can he stall enough of St. Pierre's offense to get back to his feet and can he last five rounds if he can't.  Not exactly the type of questions that would lead one to think a title change might occur.

Swick is 4-0 since his drop to welterweight on the heels of being dominated by Yushin Okami (sense a theme here?).  His first two fights resulted in wins, but were a bit lackluster.  He had a hard time with the cut in his win against Josh Burkman, and was suffering from injuries that required surgery after his fight with Marcus Davis.  His last two fights have been exciting though, with a KO win over Jonathan Goulet and an impressive TKO win over Ben Saunders.  His submission game hasn't been on display as a welterweight yet as his power seems to be a bit much for the lower ranks of fighters to deal with.  His power unlikely to be too much for Kampmann, who should have a weight advantage, a striking advantage and an advantage on the ground.  If he does pull off the upset though, Swick probably poses little issue for St. Pierre. His lanky frame gives him a reach advantage over the champion, but he is likely to end up on his back early on and stay there.  Unless Swick has developed a stellar guard game - and not many at AKA have one - we would likely see a replay of the Okami fight, just with a much more aggressive fighter on top.

Future Challengers

Assuming a victory over the Kampmann/Swick winner, St. Pierre will have bested 5 of the top 10 welterweights in the world - in under 3 years.  That's an impressive run, and it also means that he is likely to start seeing some repeat challengers

Fitch is at the top of that list.  He has won two fights since his title shot loss, making him an incredible 10-1 in his UFC career.  That one loss hurts him in trying to get another title shot though.  He did last five tough, hard rounds with St. Pierre, and lost by 50-43 on one card (that's 2 10-8 rounds) and 50-44 on the other two.  He put up a fight, but it wasn't really close.  And he's the #2 welterweight in the world right now.  It is going to take several more wins and more impressive showings than he put in against Paulo Thiago to get back on the UFC's radar for a title shot.  His next fight is rumored to be against Almeida at UFC 106.

Thiago Alves is in much the same boat that Fitch found himself in after his loss.  A talented fighter who just ran into the elite and got outmatched.  He will need needs to build himself back up after the beating an injured St. Pierre handed him,   No word yet on when his return fight will, or if he will even stay at welterweight.  He has had problems making weight before, and might move up to middleweight, though it is doubtful that he would fare much better there.

Matt Hughes is still (somehow) a highly ranked contender, but to be honest, he is a total non-factor in the division and has been since Serra injured his back and had to call off their December 2007 fight. Instead, he got matched up with St. Pierre, who dominated him and left no doubt what would happen if they met a fourth time.  Realistically, the immediate future for Hughes is probably a going away present from the UFC in the form of Dennis Hallman, who holds two wins over Hughes earlier in their careers.  Avenging those two quick losses would likely be a capper for Hughes, who could quietly move off into retirement at that point.

 A teammate at AKA to both Swick and Fitch, Josh Koscheck was thought to be in line for a title shot.  He put in a relatively good showing against St. Pierre in their August 2007 bout, at least having won a round en route to a unanimous decision loss. He seems to have abandoned his wrestling though, and his attempt to be an exciting striker got him KO'd by Paulo Thiago in his last fight.  Now, he has to rebuild himself as a contender if he ever wants a title shot, and that process begins with a fight against the returning Frank Trigg at UFC 103.  As for Trigg, even with an upset win, this is the same fighter who was manhandled by St. Pierre a couple of years ago and is nearing 40.

So, with the top of the division already having fallen to St. Pierre, some new blood is likely to get some chances.  Condit could be a factor.  Had he beaten Kampmann in their fight, he would be facing Swick next month with a title shot on the line, but instead he's looking for his first win in the Octagon.  Despite that loss, Condit could be a real factor in the division.  A legitimate but strong welterweight,  Condit might be one of the few who could give St. Pierre serious trouble.  He is a dangerous striker but, more importantly against St. Pierre, he has a dangerous guard.  St. Pierre would likely not be able to muscle around Condit like he did Penn when he was on top, and that might give Condit opportunities for submissions and sweeps.  He is also a finisher, as he is the rare fighter who has never won a decision, having lost the only two out of his 28 fights to go to the distance.  Of his 23 victories, he has an impressive 10 (T)KO's and 13 submissions.  He is a fighter who pressures his opponents, and that is something St. Pierre has not had to deal with in his recent bouts.  "The Natural Born Killer" will start his path to a title shot at UFN 19 against newly signed Jake Ellenberger, a late replacement for an injured Chris Lytle.  

Almeida could also be a factor.  He stated he fought at UFC 101 at 187lbs, which is comparable to what St. Pierre reportedly weighs when the bell rings for most fights.  With size and power likely negligible factors, a fight with St. Pierre would likely come down to wrestling versus jiu jitsu.  Almeida has a high level jiu jitsu game, but it is hard to say what he would be able to do off his back with St. Pierre on top of him.  We should get a good idea of what kind of factor Almeida will be at welterweight rather quickly if his proposed fight with Fitch happens.

Outside of those contenders, there's a drop off in either talent or in Q rating, one of which is usually required to get into the title mix.  Thiago made a big splash with his KO over Koscheck, and proved it was not a complete fluke with his showing against Fitch, but he has a long way to go to even think about a title shot.  Dan Hardy, Marcus Davis and Lytle are exciting action fighters who will always get fights either to open a PPV or main event a Fight Night, but none are at the level to compete with the elite in the division.  Davis and Lytle in particular have been handled with relative ease any time they've stepped up in quality of opposition.

Karo Parisyan actually does not suffer from a lack of either talent or visibility among MMA fans, but he seems to have enough personal issues going on to have derailed his career, perhaps permanently.  He is currently serving a suspension for use of prescription pain killers in his decision win - since changed to a no contest - over Dyong Hyun-Kim.  He will not be eligible to fight until December.  Even if he comes back, Parisyan has not been a serious contender since missing out on his shot at Hughes several years ago, and would have to seriously alter some aspects of his training to even be considered a title threat.

There are, however, a couple of possibly exciting options for the division on the horizon.  Dustin Hazelett has become a fan favorite for his exciting fights and even more exciting submission wins, but he has also worked hard to develop his striking game as well.  At only 23, he's accumulated a 5-2 UFC record, but is also out of action recuperating from knee surgery until the early part of 2010.  Certainly not a threat to St. Pierre right now, Hazelett could be a title contender in a year or two and, with his submission skills, could always have a "puncher's chance" to win, if you will pardon the oxymoron in that one.

Also brought over from the WEC along with Condit, Brock Larson has gone 2-0 in his second stint in the UFC.  His only career losses have come against Condit and Fitch, and is a well rounded fighter with strong wrestling skills, excellent submissions and surprising power.  He will need a couple of wins against the upper end of the division before even being considered for title contention, but he is skilled and gritty enough to give anyone some problems. At 31 years old, Larson has likely reached the peak of his skills, but a potential match up against St. Pierre is still not a favorable one for Larson. He could however make a good challenger between bigger fights if he continues to win and is built up properly.

And finally, one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC is currently working his way up through the bottom reaches of the division.  With a record of 7-2, Anthony Johnson has electrified fans with his stand up skills and explosive KO's.  His 2007 loss to blown up lightweight Rich Clementi is a mark against him and his ground game, but he seems to have taken that as a learning experience.  He rebounded from a controversial loss to Kevin Burns to avenge himself in a rematch, and will make a step up in competition level when he takes on the tough Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 104 on October 24th..  Like Hazelett, Johnson is probably a year or two away from being a legitimate contender, but at just 25 years old he has the time and natural ability to eventually be dangerous to anyone.

Unlike the lightweight division, there are not a lot of immediate contenders who many would give a legitimate shot against St. Pierre.  With only one top 10 fighter not currently in the UFC - Jake Shields - there are not a lot of outside competitors to bring in to challenge the champion either.  Also unlike the lightweight division, there is essentially no chance that St. Pierre is going to move up to middleweight.  His camp has never seemed to interested in that move, and with Silva splitting time between middleweight and light heavy, the UFC is likely less eager to make that fight happen as well.  For the foreseeable future, this division might be as locked down as possible.  But, keep in mind that in 2006, Matt Hughes was an unstoppable beast who had only suffered a shocking loss to BJ Penn in the previous five years.  It does not take too long for a fighter to develop from talented young contender into a legitimate championship challenger, as St. Pierre did between 2004 and 2006.   Two years from now we might be asking who could possibly take the title from Johnson.

 

Locked down.  After UFC 100 & 101, that term has been thrown around to describe all five of the weight divisions.  Each has a champion that many feel is unbeatable by every challenger in his weight class.  With lightweight champion BJ Penn, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar each putting in dominant performances over their top contenders, middleweight champion Anderson Silva on a 10 fight win streak after moving up and destroying Forrest Griffin, and light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida looking untouchable so far in his career, many fans - and internet pundits - have started to wonder if any of them will ever lose their title in the cage.

But is there any actual truth to the notion?

While these five are almost certainly the most talented and dominant group of champions in the company's history,  it was not long ago that the same was said about Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres in the WEC.  A quick look at the recent and distant past tells us throwing the term 'Locked Down' is more than a bit premature for most of the divisions

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Lightweights

The Champion:  BJ Penn

 

The lightweight division is the newest to enter the mythical 'lockdown' stage. While it was Penn's first title defense in well over a year, the surprisingly easy victory over consensus #1 contender Kenny Florian has put the division on notice.  But Penn is a very interesting case - when he loses a fight, the masses seem to quickly begin thinking of him as washed up and overrated.  People question his heart, skills and conditioning (albeit, this one is legitimate).  However, when he wins a fight in the manner that he did at UFC 101, everyone forgets their criticisms in falling over themselves to heap praise upon him.  The truth likely lies somewhere in between - Penn is an incredibly skilled fighter who is at his best when motivated by either embarrassment or disrespect, but also a fighter who can either be beaten by himself through lax  training, or  by other fighters who game plan correctly and then stick to said game plan.

Penn's skills are undeniable.  His jiu jitsu is excellent, as evidenced by his transitions from back to mount and back again before choking out another excellent jiu jitsu player in Florian.  His boxing is often underrated, by his fast hands and good defense were a large reason why Florian did very little damage.  He's never been knocked down in his career, nor can I remember him ever being really stunned by punch, and his wrestling is underrated. Florian is certainly not an elite wrestler, but he spent three round trying for a takedown to no avail, only to be thrown to the mat on Penn's first attempt.

 His bigness weakness appears to come from himself - too much confidence in his own skill set and not enough humility to do the training necessary to be as good as he can be.  At 155lbs, the training is a bit less of an issue as Penn seemingly needs to dedicate himself in the gym more tha usual just to make weight.  The fitness level he showed against Florian was something new though.  The training regiment he went through at the hands of Marv Marinovich has been detailed already, but the patience and relaxedness that Penn showed through the first three rounds against Florian may have been even more impressive.  He fought enough to probably win all three rounds, but he conserved his energy until he felt Florian tire, then pounced and quickly finished the fight.  Of all the outcomes possible, not many would have expected Penn's biggest weapon in the fight to be his cardio.  An in shape Penn is a beast at 155lbs, but there are several challengers looking to break out and dethrone him.  No lightweight champion has ever made more than two title defenses, so history may be on the side of the challengers.

The Next in Line: Diego Sanchez

Penn's next challenge is going to come from Diego Sanchez, who since moving down from 170lbs, has put together a modest streak of two wins over top 20 contenders in Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.  Sanchez - the winner of the original Ultimate Fighter at 185lbs - has not looked fantastic as lightweight though.  His fight with Stevenson was lacking in excitement, though he did show some improved striking.  That striking was also on display against Guida, but "The Carpenter" was able to rebound from nearly being KO'd in the first round to nearly winning the fight.  Had it been longer than three rounds, every indication was that Sanchez was on his way to a defeat.

 

Against Penn, Sanchez will not be so lucky to have the fight stop in the third, nor is he likely to survive on the ground as he did against Guida.  Cutting down from welterweight will make Sanchez one of the bigger lightweights in the UFC, but in reality, so is Penn. With the extra muscle he showed against Florian, size will be a negligible issue between these two.  And while even a Marinovich trained Penn is unlikely to push the pace like Guida did, the conservation of energy he showed against Florian means he should be able to turn up the heat in later rounds, just as he did on Florian.  A similar result with Sanchez tapping out is likely as well.

Future Challengers

Even if the new #1 contender may not pose a major threat to Penn's title, that doesn't mean that there aren't  some potential stumbling blocks standing in the way of Penn's dominance.  Seemingly being groomed for a future title shot is Xtreme Couture standout Gray Maynard.  He will have his highest profile fight to date next month at UFN 19, as he was handpicked by ZUFFA to send Roger Heurta out of the promotion with a loss.  A win on SpikeTV should give Maynard a boost in visibility and popularity, but timing would seem to dictate that he would have to win at least one more fight before getting a title shot.  And if Penn and Sanchez both count as big lightweights, then Maynard is a HUGE 155lber.  In the division, Maynard could very well have the wrestling skills to act as a 'GSP light'.  In the hypothetical match up with Penn, he could very well put the champion on his back ,allowing him to either hold him there and grind out a win, or unleash some ground and pound and try to break the will of the champion.  Of all the challengers,  Maynard could very well pose the biggest threat to Penn's reign atop the division.

Another Xtreme Couture product could also be in line for a title shot if he is able to put a few more wins together.  Prior to his loss to Sean Sherk, Tyson Griffin was probably ahead of his teammate Maynard in the pecking order,  having put together a four fight win streak.  The loss to former champion Sherk put him back at square one though.  A talented wrestler with incredibly strong legs, Griffin has abandoned that base in recent fights and instead tried to reinvent himself as a striker.  He lost the decision to Sherk in what was essentially a kickboxing match, and got himself into trouble in his last outing with Rafael Dos Anjos, when he was nearly submitted by a leg lock.  He will have to be more conscious of his submission defense in his upcoming UFC 103 fight with Hermes Franca, and would have to be very conscious of the same in any title shot against Penn.  His boxing is not good enough that he could stand with the champion, as he drops his hands far too much, but if he were to rely more on his wrestling, Griffin might be able to do some damage.  That is a big if though.  Another factor could be that Griffin hasn't been a finisher in his UFC career, as he has gone to decision in all his fights save his debut performance.  That could be a blessing or a curse, as you could look at that as him having the gas to push Penn's new cardio, or a lack of power in his punches and submission skills.  If Penn does not respect your punching or your ground game, you are in for a long night, no matter how short a time the fight lasts.

Former lightweight champion Sherk has altered his game in the same way that Griffin has.  A dominant power wrestler who used to take opponents to the ground and just wear them out with constant pressure, Sherk has tried to become a pure striker in response to calls of him being boring.  While turning a weakness into a strength is always a good thing, for a fighter with the shortest arms in the division to try to become a pure striker has been misguided at best.  He was dominated on his feet in his title shot with Penn, toughed out a close win over Griffin without either man shooting for a takedown, but he was easily handled in the stand up by the much smaller Frankie Edgar, who only had to stuff a takedown attempt or two.  If Sherk were to revert back to his wrestling more so, he would likely have a much better showing in a title rematch, but has shown no inclination to go that route at this point.  Without a re-dedication to his wrestling, it is unlikely that Sherk will even be able to get back into title contention, let alone a title shot.

Somewhat lost in the shuffle of the division right now is the man who beat Sherk in their last outing, Frankie Edgar. While a bit undersized for 155lbs,  he has managed to garner wins over Griffin, Spencer Fisher, Franca and, most recently, Sherk.  That's an impressive list, and Edgar has shown improved skill in almost every aspect of the sport, but he was set back when he was dominated by Maynard at UFN 13 en route to a decision loss.  In hindsight though, that loss to Maynard likely says more about "The Bully" than it does "The Answer."  That being said, and while Edgar is a very well rounded competitor, he is in the same boat that Florian was in against Penn - a level below in every aspect of the game, and with no real avenue to victory.

After these five, the rest of the division is a talented jumble waiting for someone to stand out.  The likes of Nate Diaz, former title challenger Joe Stevenson, Josh Neer, Caol Uno, Kurt Pellegrino, Mac Danzing, Mark Bocek, Guida (sidenote - I don't think I would pick anyone in the division to beat him in a fiver round fight), Jim Miller, Sam Stout, Matt Wiman,  Fisher and Joe Lauzon are all talented, but also have substantial holes in their games that would need to be addressed before they make the move up to legit title contender.  In the meantime, this group has been trading wins and losses among themselves with no one really being able to break out from the pack.

In his immediate future, Penn is likely to be faced with Sanchez and Maynard, and beyond that is anyone's guess.  It could be a few challengers will step out of the pack and claim a shot, or the UFC could add to it's lightweight ranks with the likes of Shinya Aoki (unlikely), Eddie Alvarez (hopefully) or Joachim Hansen (again, hopefully) to create new challengers.  To consider the division 'Locked Down' by Penn is premature though.  He has only defended the title twice, has a track record of losing interest and setting himself up for defeat, and don't forget -  Penn has been though of as unbeatable before. Right before he lost his first title shot to Jens Pulver, and then drew with Caol Uno in his second chance.

 

 

Because the MMA world can't go a day with an anticipated fight falling through, MMAMania.com is reporting the Chris Lytle has had to pull out of his UFN 19 fight against Carlos Condit.  Lytle has blown his ACL, according to agent Ken Pavia.

 While not the actual main event of UFN 19, the Lytle/Condit fight was one third of a triumvirate that was functioning almost as a triple main event .  It was also Condit's chance to get his first UFC win after coming up short in a solid debut against Martin Kampmann. As for the always exciting Lytle, he is coming off an exciting comeback victory over Kevin Burns.  No immediate time table for a return is mentioned, but ACL injuries can often take up to a year of recovery.

No  replacement for Lytle has been announced yet.

Televised Card:
Melvin Guillard vs. Nate Diaz
Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta
Carlos Condit vs. Chris Lytle
Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

Prelim Card:
Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann
Chris Wilson vs. Mike Pyle
Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson
Sam Stout vs. Kyle Bradley
Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Buchholz
Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss

Dana White and ZUFFA are not known for their generosity towards competing organizations, but the current mess that Affliction: Trilogy has turned into thanks Josh Barnett and positive drug test may present an opportunity for them to step in and become the knights in shining armour for MMA fans worldwide.

As it stands now, Tom Attencio and Affliction are staring monumental losses square in the face.  Even if the rumoured replacement main event of Vitor Belfort moving up two weight classes to take on Fedor Emelianenko takes place, the PPV is likely to spell financial doom for Affliction as a fight promotion.  There is a good chance that even if Barnett had not tested positive and the original main event went off without a hitch that the promotion would be finished after Aug 1st anyway, but this essentially guarantees it.

With their main event in disarray, and most of their advertising already out to broadcasters, their losses will be multiplied in trying to get word out that the fight has changed.  Any replacement - even the rumour of Tito Ortiz - is not going to mitigate the losses at this point.

Enter ZUFFA.

With Affliction possibly looking to cut their losses, they are, in the short term, in an interesting position.  They have Fedor under contract for one more fight, and at a very reasonable salary thanks to the huge signing bonus they gave him prior to their first event, Banned, last year.  In the world of MMA, that is possibly the most valuable commodity going, and one ZUFFA is most likely very interested in.

With the right offer, it is not inconceivable that ZUFFA could swoop in and buy the entire promotion.  The potential income derived from being able to promote either Couture/Fedor or Lesnar/Fedor - or both, if all goes well - would certainly make a respectable payment for the Affliction organization feasible.

This would not be without precedent either, as ZUFFA purchased the floundering WFA essentially just for the contracts of Rampage Jackson and Lyoto Machida several years ago.  Along with Fedor, ZUFFA would also acquire the rights to Belfort - whom White has gone on record on SPIKEtv as being a potential opponent for Anderson Sliva - a few other attractive fighters, namely Babalu and Jorge Santiago.

Yesterday, this idea would have been ludicrous.  Today, with Barnett out, Attencio sounding less than convincing about the show taking place at all and the chance to finally have Fedor inside the Octagon, the timing may be perfect for ZUFFA to sweep in a pick the Affliction carcass clean.

After the Strikeforce Challengers and Ultimate Finale events over the weekend, judges' scoring and the overall scoring system in MMA are coming under renewed and increased scrutiny.  It's a topic that never fully goes away, and is always one controversial fight away from being a huge topic once again, but these events - particularly two fights from the Ultimate Finale - have fans and industry insiders upset, with many - including Kid Nate here on Bloody Elbow - calling for an end to the 10 point must system, ot that 10-8 and 10-7 rounds must be more prevalent.

But it is not the 10 point must system, but rather the inconsistency in scoring that is increasingly aggravating.  Watching the Guida/Sanchez fight, I said to my wife after the second round that Guida won that round and she nearly attacked me.  I thought Sanchez beat him soundly with elbows on the ground, but I know that being on top is usually enough to win a round. 

The problem is two fold.  First, judges don't seem to give much credit to a fighter on the bottom forcing the top fighter into defensive positions with submissions.  Sanchez had several fairly close submissions and while Guida was never on the verge of tapping, he was constantly having to defend those submission attempts instead of producing any offense of his own.  It's akin to a boxer being on the ropes and blocking most of the punches coming in, but the guy throwing all the punches is going to get some credit.  Sanchez was the busier fighter, had the more dangerous and active offense and therefore outweighed Guida's takedown and positional control in the second round.  I don't think any of the three judges scored it that way though, and that's the real travesty that most people aren't discussing. 

The Unifed Rules of MMA state:

(f) Effective grappling is judged by considering the amount of successful executions of a legal takedown and reversals. Examples of factors to consider are take downs from standing position to mount position, passing the guard to mount position, and bottom position fighters using an active, threatening guard.

(g) Fighting area control is judged by determining who is dictating the pace, location and position of the bout. Examples of factors to consider are countering a grappler’s attempt at takedown by remaining standing and legally striking ; taking down an opponent to force a ground fight; creating threatening submission attempts, passing the guard to achieve mount, and creating striking opportunities.

Looking at round 2 of the fight, Guida should - and did - get credit for the takedown and keeping the fight there, but Sanchez should - and apparently did not - get credit for hold Guida in his guard, the number of submission attempts and sweep attempts he tried to position for, as well as for the extremely effective elbows he threw, creating a 16-3 advantage in power strikes from the ground, according to FightMetrics.

As for scoring a round like that, the judging criteria states:

(k) Judges shall use a sliding scale and recognize the length of time the fighters are either standing or on the ground, as follows:

1. If the mixed martial artists spent a majority of a round on the canvas, then:
i. Effective grappling is weighed first; and
ii. Effective striking is then weighed

The absolute best case for Guida under these criteria is a draw in the grappling, but he should still lose the round based on the striking.

Secondly, there has been the suggestion that 10-10, 10-8 and 10-7 rounds should be more liberally applied. If this were to be the case, I feel it would have to come in conjunction with all fights moving into longer (ie 5 round) formats.    A 10-7 first round means that the figher on the beating end of that round has no chance to win the fight (barring a decisive finish, of course), even if he clearly comes back and wins the second and third.  If it's a three round fight, and you win two rounds, you deserve better than to lose 28-27.

MMA is an evolving sport, and things will continue to change over time.  The outcry from fans, fighters and promotions - Rogan was rightfully harsh on the judging in his commentary Saturday night - is getting to the point where state athletic commisions are going to have little choice but to improve their judging systems, even if only for PR purposes at least.

Josh Gross at SI has an article up suggesting that Chuck Liddell is not as eager as Dana White to see him retire from the Octagon.

Quoting trainer John Hackleman, Gross suggests that "[they]'re not going to do what [people on the] Internet say, or what any one person says."

The "one person" most vocal about Liddell's loss to Mauricio Rua being his swan song has been Dana White, so much so to the point that many outlets have reported Liddell's retirement as official based on White's comments.