SB Nation User Blog: Mechem

An Updated Wild Card look

Mechem — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 15:04:57 -0000

Well I'm still aroused from last night.... But now's time to look at the business end of the stick. We are in a multi-way tie with 7-7 as our record. Fortunately for us, there are only two teams above us, a few with us, and a few below us.

So hows about we take a gander at our still slim but entirely mathematically possible wild card hopes?

The first things first. Our division winners, most likely, are Cincy, Colts, Whales Vagina, Cheaters.

Below them, our front runner is the Denver Farmsecks Broncos. They have a 8-6 record. Just one game above us.

And just below them, at the 6 spot, the Purple Browns with an identical 8-6 record.

And below those folks, lots of hungry birds squaking for some food to fall to them. They are as follows:

You're very own Pittsburgh Steelers, at a 7-7 record, with an AFC conf record of 4-6.

The Ten'Teeth Titans, sitting at 7-7, with a 4-7 Conference record.

The Maurice Jones-Drew's at 7-7 with a 6-4 Conf record.

The Sea Monkeys (dolphins) at 7-7, and a 5-5 Conference Record.

The Jetsons with a 7-7 record also at 5-5 for conference.

And the Expansion team with a 7-7 record, with a 4-6 conference record also.

Lets start at the top. The unfortunate situation is this: We can't finish tied with The Purple Browns and get into the playoffs. They will have the conference record on us. For them to concede their spot to us, they will have to lose next week to us, and @ Oakland in the last week. Which isnt impossible. Just improbable.

But the 5 seed got a lot more interesting. Denver is also 8-6, and if you recall, we own a head to head tiebreaker. And this "Denver" has to go to the Eagles, which should be a very difficult matchup, in fact one I feel they will lose.

Of the Wild Card Teams, the Sea Monkeys play us to close out the regular season. A win there will eliminate them from contention. So we neednt worry about them.

Houston plays the Dolphins, and the Pats. Theres at least one loss there. They wont be a factor.

Jacksonville goes to New England next week in a likely loss. This will get them, our biggest 7-7 threat, out of the way.

The Ten'Teeth Titans are tied with us, but lost to us to start the year, meaning they wont hurt us at all even if they win out.

The Jetsons get a fun trip to Indy next week, and host the Bengals after that. No way they win both of those.

So the simple fact here is this: The other 7-7 teams have incredibly hard roads to hoe, and will be eliminated.

So now the 8-6 teams: Denver has to lose one game. Simple as that. We will leap-frog them via tiebreaker. Look no further than the eagles game this week. Baltimore alternately could lose to us, and then to oakland in the last week of the season.

Folks, expect to see a Pair of 9-7s enter the playoffs this year as wild cards. And one of them will be the Steelers.

Your Rooting Guide:

Week 16: Cheer for:

Indy to beat the Jets

Dolphins to beat Houston

New England (I know it sucks) to beat JAX

The Iggles to beat the Broncos.

And of course, the Steelers to beat the Ravens.

December is where it is decided

Mechem — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:13:13 -0000

While I have tried to be the voice of optimism over the last few weeks, we certainly have to be a bit concerned about where our season is going. The thing of it is, we are at a fork in the road. The December Fork. The question is, what road will we take? Lets examine the roads we HAVE taken, and see where each one will lead. This is the month where the season is decided

The Steelers over the last 4 years have won two Super Bowls. But they also have had two somewhat let-down-like seasons, back to back in 2006 and 2007.

However, we know, above all, that December determines where you land in the postseason picture. Good news for us is, we usually tend to finish strong. Lets look at some of our previous november/december periods. I want to mainly focus on the last 4 games of the season being the most important.

In 2005, we had a bit of a rough November. We went 2-3 if you include the very first december game (we had a January first that year). The team was in question at 7-5. However, they would go on to win their next 4, marching into the playoffs triumphant at 11-5 and winning out as we know.

In 2006, November was, again, a bit of a brutality. 2-2, with pastings from Baltimore and Denver. This season, we also finished very strong, and regained our peak form. Going 4-1 in December. Unfortunately, we were just one win shy of making the playoffs. I tend to write this season off due to injury, but we can see that once the team got healthy, they cleaned house down the stretch.

In 2007, we did a bit of the opposite. We came into December having won 3-1 in November. But in December, we folded like an origami swan, going just 2-3. Stumbling into the playoffs, we found ourselves at a loss against Jacksonville, despite nearly winning that game anyway.

And in 2008, we showed our true best. Just one loss in November, and a bit of a throw-away game loss in December to the Ten'Teeth Titans.

So what is my point? In our two super bowl years, we finished strong in December. This time, we really cant afford a loss. The only one we might be able to concede is to the Packers, depending on how things play out.

We can take the 2007 road in this December fork, and fall apart and sit and watch the playoffs on TV. Or we can take the road we've taken the other 3 years, and go out and take some names. I personally feel if we made the playoffs in 2006 we could have gotten at least to the AFCCG, as that year was a bit weak overall. Fortunately, we are in no more of a hole than we were in 2005 and 2007. We CAN win out.

I also feel its good to note that Tomlin has seen this situation before. He was there for the 07 meltdown at the end, and for the 2008 charge forward into the postseason. Hopefully, he knows what needs to be done to make sure we repeat last years late season performance.

We have the perfect schedule to do so, mostly soft teams, and Baltimore at home.

The season is not over, really, it is just beginning. Even the Titans have a shot at the playoffs. Who would have thought!? Lets watch December with an eager expectation of things to come.

Lets not panic, A review of the playoff picture

Mechem — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:31:41 -0000

Yes today's loss was a brutal, stupid, and ultimately poorly timed loss. In a day where the entire AFC North lost, we could have helped secure a division title and instead, probably lost it.

But this poast will examine our Wild Card prospects, which are completely intact. In fact, we are still in the drivers seat. Observe after the hippity hop.

Currently, as it stands we have several probable division "locks"

AFC North: Cincinnatti at 7-3. While we could surpass them, I dont quite see it. This is more of a Wild Card Examination.

AFC East: New England Patriots at 7-3. Two games up over the Dolphins (more on them later). They only have one tough opponent left in New Orleans.

AFC South: Colts at 10-0. Still rolling like Santonio Holmes. The only team behind them is the Jags at 6-4.

Assuming these teams clinch divisions, it leaves the following Wild Card Contenders:

San Diego at 7-3

Denver at 6-4

Jacksonville at 6-4

Miami at 5-5

Baltimore at 5-5

And possibly Houston, who would be 6-4 if they win on MNF.

Lets examine each of these scenarios.

The beauty of San Diego and Denver is this. One of them WILL win the division. More than likely, its San Diego. However, we've had the luck of beating both of those teams. Meaning a tie with them is to our advantage. This pushes both of them out of our way.

Denver is also spiraling out of control. 4 Straight losses and a trip to Indy in two weeks do not bode well.

Jacksonville is going to be in the thick of it, yet also plays New England and Indy before the season's end. Good news for us. In addition, most all of their wins have been against lousy opponents, and they have been plastered by those who are superior. However, they are Wild Card enemy #2

Miami is in the hunt, but behind us. We get the chance to put them down when we play them in the upcoming weeks. A win there would eliminate them from stealing our Wild Card spot.

And we control Baltimore's destiny. Beat them twice, and they are gone. Even once would likely hurt their chances.

Houston is the other big wild card threat. A win on MNF puts them at our record, 6-4. They too however play New England, and Indy.

Our two biggest WC threats then, are Jacksonville and Houston. The beauty of this problem, is they play eachother one more time, and face the tough common opponents of Indy and New england. This puts us at an advantage.

So friends, please put down the rope. Turn the car off and open the garage door. We have an extremely positive chance of taking the 5th seed in the league. And division is not over yet. We all know what this team can do when they play their best, they didnt today, but if they do the rest of this year, Trophy #7 is still very much available.

Jamal Lewis.... In Pittsburgh?

Mechem — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:03:31 -0000

I just was reading about Jamal Lewis' recent early retirement announcement. The 30 year old Lewis is trapped in the pit we call the Cleveland Browns. The pour soul.

He has indicated in the past he wants a championship ring, which is likely why he decided to resign to the Browns after their 10-6 year, possibly seeing hope.

Now, last we checked, whos the team who won the last championship? Yep, ours.

And what could said team use? Why a RB that doesn't fumble for one thing!

And what could we give to pry said RB away? I propose we try and sweet talk and get him to ask to get out of there.

I'd love to see him in a Steeler Uniform, I think he really fits our style. He could help mentor Mendy, and maybe get his ring.

Ten Things I liked about this game

Mechem — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 03:53:14 -0000

I feel like pointing out a few plays and moments, and just things in general, that I found enjoyable about the game overall. Maybe some obvious points, and maybe some lesser seen ones. Hope you like.

These are, in no real particular order by the way:

1. LaMarr Woodley. The man seemed to start this year off sluggish and out of shape, yet seemed involved on a lot of plays today. And I think he had some big one in there... Aside from letting the 40 year old Favre juke him out of a sack, it was pretty great to watch him play at a high level.

2. 2008 defense in the 09 season. Best run game in football, check. Undefeated team, check. Highest rated passer in the league, check. And what happened? 10 points. That was the finest display of defense I've seen from this unit since I dont know when. Sacks, CLUTCH turnovers, and general blitzing shenanigans... more on this later.

3. Trusting Brett Favre more than Purple Jesus: I love it when a team decides to put their goal-line fate in the hands of a rusty old QB instead of the best running back on the planet. Observing Peterson get one out of 3 attempts on the goalline made our work that much easier. And it was capped off by a Childress pansy field goal. Bra-vo.

4. Maxamillion Starks. He earned his keep today. I dont think I hardly ever heard the name Jared Allen flutter through my ears. In fact he finished with just 1.5 tackles, and most importantly, no real impact on the game. I knew Max had his number on a passing play early in the game, I believe with 12:57 left in the first, Max just flat out pancakes him to the floor. I jumped up and shouted on that block. Today Max was worth every cent of his fat contract.

5. The Review Crew: For making an excellent review of a sideline Vikings catch that from a glance, hell, from a stare, didnt seem to be a catch. But fantastic work. They also made the right call in our favor on another review, 2/2. Good work and even when they go against us, I still prefer a clean review.

6. Keyaron Fox. Losing your fastest LB when playing a fast offense hurts, especially when he's been all over the field in this game. But talk about filling in some shoes. Great play, and only really made one bad move on AP, and there's no shame in that. And of course, made the big clutch play to prove he can handle the load on defense.

7. Ziggy Hood. He didn't play much, but looked energetic out there. The thing I absolutely love his that he hauls his ass all the way down to follow Fox's INT return. Thats a good sign out of the kid. He showed hustle even though there likely wasn't anybody to block, but you can bet if there had been, he'd have them on the ground.

8. Dick Lebeau's Blitzburgh. I saw a lot of 1-5-5 looks and plenty of other exotic 5 man rushes late in the game. 4-5 man rushes are not really a big deal, except out of that formation they can be deadly. Favre had men in his face. Dick started the year out a bit timid, perhaps concerned about pass coverage without Polamalu and B-Mac, but he's got into a groove right now, and looks to be back in top shape.

9. James Farrior. Farrior deserves a big nod today. Many feel he's lost a step. In fact, I have been wanting Fox to fill in for him more. But its hard to argue that when he posts 9-6 in the tackle column, with a sack, and was involved in breaking up a few passes.

10. Physical Play. On both teams, the play was quite strong. I'm probably never going to forget Purple Jesus mowing down William Gay like a hummer going over a speedbump in the walmart parking lot, nor Ward taking a hard hit and dropping it. And of course, Professional Wood Layer Ryan Clark did his weekly decleater and forced a timely drop. Favre even got knocked around a bit and to his credit threw his classic low block. Great stuff on both sides of the ball for both teams.

So thats my 10 spot. Hope you like. There was quite a bit about this game to love but to me this one was just a pure great football game. Seems like we really step up for people wearing purple jerseys... Watch out B-more!

Mechem's Review of the Refs

Mechem — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:26:40 -0000

Now I'm not here to criticize the refs, but merely to offer my explanations of what happened today in our game. We had several bizarre calls that were just a little out of the ordinary. In addition we had quite a few no calls that altered the flow of the game. I feel like analyzing a few of the more important ones in my new (possibly recurring) segment, Mechem's Review of the Refs.

The Phantom First Down:

The first play we will look at is likely the most talked about one. Browns fans (an endangered species) will likely be freaking out over this one.

For those who dont know the TV showed a close 4th and 1 Big Ben Sneak. And the Chain Gang showed up and pulled the stick out, and it fell just past the ball, by no more than an inch or two. Only to subsequently signal first down Steelers. Seems like a Madden game error, but perhaps it was something else.

What we see here is a football about to be measured by a talented NFL professional who likes his job and makes a fine salary doing it.

This picture is the only one I could get online that shows a hash mark, which I feel is the key component here. Observe the angle. The camera here is clearly not centered. Lets take it to photoshop and whip out some math!

Observe the drawn lines of math. The baseline follows the flat edge of the hash, which of course should be parallel with the ball. The grey vertical line is for a 90 degree reference. The second black line follows the side of the hash. Measuring with the fancy tool in PS (tool usage visible here), declares the difference to be about 32 degrees.

Where does that put mister cameraman? Lets find out shall we:

We were at the Cleveland 14. Using the ol' Pythagorean theorem, we can get an idea. We know the field is 160 feet wide, and the ball was roughly in the middle. That means, more or less 80 feet from the sidelines. Therefore (i wont breakdown the math but you can check it if you must) assuming that 32 degree angle measure is accurate and that hash mark was painted correctly, that gives us a 50 foot distance to the right of where the line was.

This means the camera guy was standing likely about 15 yards back when he takes this shot. Fifteen yards is a big difference when measuring an inch.

And certainly the ref, standing RIGHT OVER the ball, could see what was going on. Lets toss away our conspiracy theories. Just because Ben goes to WWE doesnt mean the game is rigged. Chalk this one up to a bad camera angle and lets move on to a subsequent play.

The Ward INC TD ruling:

This play comes just 2 plays after Ben's unstoppable sneak. Ben hits Ward over the left side of the EZ. Ward clearly secures the ball right away. He lands with both legs inbounds, and hits the ground with his body, and rolls over. As he's rolling like a barrel in Donkey Kong, he goes OOB and loses the ball off his leg. It also hit the ground.

The key behind this call is the rule that says one must maintain control "through the entire play." This rule is very relevant in cases such as Santonio's GWTD in SB43. When a player just gets his toes down, the play is not over. He has to land with the ball. But, when a player catches the ball in the EZ, and goes to the ground in the EZ, the play should be over. His rolling on his body OOB should not matter, nor should him losing the ball well after doing so.

I believe in this case the Ref is extending the above rule to more plays than it was designed for. Its a good rule, just not in this application.

Sorry for the lack of photo here, the internet recaps all decided to skip over all that last 4 minutes of the 2Q.

The Mendenhall Strip:

Since my viewing partner was kinda fuming over this one I felt like including it. Mendy goes down, falls on a pile of bodies like its Call of Duty, and somebody more or less waltzes over and strips the ball.

I feel like, in this one, Mendenhall was sliding forward slightly for a while. I prefer a ref crew NOT to blow the whistle early. It was a close one, but to me I think they erred on the right side of letting the play run a bit. Irregardless, its Rashard's job not to let some jag off just take the ball like candy from an infant.

Good call. Again, couldnt find pix.

Our Weekly Horribly Held Harrison:

I dont like to bring this up all the time. But on this particular play, it was quite noticeable. The Browns were called for a whopping one penalty, which was a hold. And the refs were particularly light in the penalty calling which I loved.

This one I bring up because, not only was it the most blatant, but it was costly. This play would lead to a TD later. Cleveland's only offensive production of the game not named Joshua Cribbs.

Crappy picture I know. Observe the meast on the right edge. In this shot, just before the camera moves away, the guy is yanking him by the shoulder, FROM BEHIND.

I cant find a shot of it, but if you watched the CBS feed, you could see right after, the lineman got a 2nd hand on his shoulder, and dragged him to the floor. If that isn't holding I dont know what is.

Runner up for Hold of the Week goes to the great jerk off of Stefan Logan which DID result in a TD. Logan, the fastest player on ST, was reduced to molasses by having his jersey pulled at like it was a hooker's top in Vegas.

Ryan Clarks spotting on his INT:

This one is tough for me to call. And while it didnt impact the game much, it put us in a possibly compromising situation. Clark clearly caught the ball, and landed right about the 2 yard line. But, sliding backwards from momentum, skidded into the EZ. He at that point brushed the legs of the defender, and was ruled down at the 2.

I personally think that it should have been a touchback assuming the following is true:

1. The ball was in the EZ when he was downed.

2. He was not downed until getting into the EZ with the ball.

Lets pretend, for a minute, that the Browns player was nowhere near Clark when he landed. Since he had not gone OOB, he could have simply gotten up from inside the EZ, and started to go outwards to get yardage.

But in this case, he was not touched until getting into the EZ, which last I checked is a touchback.

If this is how they call it, you could catch a ball at the 40, in bad weather, slide backwards all the way to the EZ like you are on a slip n' slide, and then get downed and given the ball at the 40. Which, to me, doesnt make a lot of sense. I understand that forward progress may play a part in the ruling, but to me if you have to be spotted where you are downed.

Still, not a BIG deal, but I felt like bringing it up.

Well personally thats all I felt it necessary to comment on. So hopefully you enjoyed my Ref review.

Honestly I think they called a pretty square game overall. I didn't love some of the calls but there weren't too many straightforward ones either, they were all kinda sketchy.

Hopefully MP gets on NFL network this week and explains a few of them.

Fin

What I'd like to do to the Bye Week

Mechem — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:38:09 -0000

Every year as we know each team gets a bye week. Some of these byes come early, and some late. For some teams it can be helpful, and for some, not so much. In a world where "Mechem" rules, the Bye week would be completely re-changed. And how? Observe:

The Bye week is a good thing. A chance for teams to rest, and for some, to make changes. Practice for an upcoming game and so forth.

However, the Bye week, as it is currently established, has faults. Firstly:

Its subject to random assignment. Meaning, some teams will get an early bye, others a late one.

It promotes unfair matchups. For some teams, the bye is a momentum killer. For others, its a blessing and a vacation week to restore strength. The problem is, some teams play a team after that teams bye, and are disadvantaged from a rest position. And sometimes, the schedule makers stick a team with 3-4 of those scenarios. Whereas, you only can possibly have one yourself.

What should be a blessing to all teams becomes a potential weapon against some.

So how to fix it? Simple answer. Level the playing field.
I would propose a universal bye week for each conference. Of course, the last thing we want is a week without football. So week 8 would be the AFC bye. Week 9, the NFC.

So look at the impact. The Bye week is now centralized. All teams heal equally. No more week 4 bye's for a team with no injuries.

No more teams playing others after uneven rest periods.

No more stupid teams being a half game back for 5 weeks in the season.

The only possible drawback would be the Fantasy Football impact. Half the players out at once. Oh well, make due with what you got. I would propose a bye week bench system, so you could retain your AFC players on the NFC week, and vice versa.

Whats the consensus BTSC? Elect me Fuhrer of the NFL!

Looking at the positives, And a follow up on my last post.

Mechem — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 00:40:14 -0000

A bit ago, I poasted an in-depth look at our defense's ability to withstand an opposing team's offense with under 3 minutes to go in the half. In particular, the goal then was to see if Troy Polamalu was the key to our defense.

I just felt like following up on that review. Yet another game, and two 3 minute or less opportunities were converted into 3 points, and 8 points, Those last 8 being the deciding ones.

Since we have more data this year now, I wanted to look at it a bit more.

Its interesting to note this. Last year, we allowed 8/29 of those 3 minute or less to go in the half opportunities. Thats just 27.5%. And of that, just 36 points were scored, 7 of which were against backups in a blowout. But I'll count them nonetheless. Not a single one of these were game winning drives.

Since the abscence of Troy Polamalu, throughout the 09 season, we've given up a hefty 5/7 chances, or 71.4%. And a total of 25 points, and TWO game winning drives.

This sets up next week as an interesting scenario. Polamalu wishes to return for Detroit. Which is one week after our game against Whale's Vagina next week. I personally think we can beat detroit without TP and we should just let him heal up more at that point.

But getting to the point, this week we will face a Chargers team with a potent offense. Much like the last few teams we've played. Should we be worried? I think so. But I also feel inclined to point out that our offense has developed too.

Today we saw a run game. And although the Bengals locked it down more in the second half, I personally attribute that to the playcalling more than anything. I felt we went way more conservative, and forced Ben into more 3rd and longs. I also think the officiating sucked in the second half, but it certainly wasn't impossible to overcome. The holding call on Willie Colon was atrocious, and took away a very precious first down.

But the point is, we had a very versatile offense that put together plenty of chances, and we just didnt take them in. Firstly I think Limas Sweed showed progress. How can I say that? Well this drop was later than the last. Yes its sad to say this, but think of it this way: In the AFCCG, he let it clank off his hands. This time, he at least got it into his body. He just felt he had the TD and relaxed too much. Hopefully next time, he actually gets it all the way. I'm not about to give up on him.

The O-line did an absolutely fantastic job today. They should be given a freaking medal. This shows us, that despite playing a very tenacious D, we can certainly hold up.

Willie Parker critics, shut your damn mouths. I've sat here all last week, and pointed out how nobody is going to do better than Parker, and its just the fault of our O-line. Well here you go. Almost 100 yards, and a huge TD reception, and another catch later on. Yes, Willie's our back. I dont recall seeing Mendenhall even touch the field. So thats something to think about. When the O-line Plays well, and plays are called well, Parker wins. Period.

For next week, we need to realize that our offense probably has to carry the load. Its almost certain we'll give up at least one half ending drive against a fast paced offense. The only way to prevent this, is to sustain a long drive toward the end ourselves. By using ball control and clock management toward the end, we can probably keep the other team off the field long enough to prevent this glaring weakness from showing up again.

I feel its entirely possible we go 1-3 before Troy returns. However, even if that is the case. Its a long season. Dig in, because I think we have shown immense improvement this week, and have incredible potential to do a great job down the stretch.

Dont abandon ship, dont jump out your windows, and hang in there. When our lord and savior returns, this game will be laughed about later on.

Troy Polamalu's Impact on our "Short-Clock" defense

Mechem — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:03:07 -0000

Now, I'm not one to make snap judgements. I personally like to take my time. And this current post is not one that is going to jump down the throats of anybody on our team. Its simply to make a comparison.

I think we've all noticed a serious problem in our first two games, that of the short clock defense going horribly down the tubes. In 4 two minute opportunities, The opposing team has 2 TDs and a FG, 3/4 opportunities have been converted. Needless to say this should be a time of lockdown and shutting out, not a time to yield over half your points allowed this year.

So this got me wondering, why prytell is this the case? My thought went to Troy Polamalu's absence. And to find out, I dug through our 07 and 08 game records. We know Polamalu was there all last year, but not toward the end of 07, nor right now. I've compiled the numbers. The results, shocking. Put your children in another room and have a look.

I decided to take a look back to observe our "short time" defense. I decided that if a drive goes past 3 minute territory on a half, then it counts as a opportunity. Meaning a drive starting in the 4th quarter early, that ends with 2:52 left on the clock will count as an opportunity. The goal is to see how the defense locks down when the clock gets low. I did however choose to make a side note when we have a drive end in a TD that ends say at 3;02 or 3:10, cause thats still bad

I didnt count any hopeless last heaves or any drive that started under 30 seconds to go, unless they were inside our territory. Also, if the opposing team never had the ball at the end of the half, then obviously thats not an opportunity.

If the team gets the ball within the 3 minute mark of regulation, TRIES to advance it, and then the drive sputters and they go into OT, thats a defense. If they just chose to kneel it, say from 1 minute to go, I dont count that as an opportunity because they just were happy to go into OT.

I chose not to count OT because teams run very different schemes, some treat it like Q1 and others like a 2 minute drill.

Author edit: Folks have commented that it would be best to include all 07 contests that HAD troy polamalu as well, as 07 and 08 are different years. While I dont see a definite NEED to do this, I think it can only further inform. So for the sake of a well rounded statistical review, I will expand my search and update results.

Turnovers that killed an opportunity are noted.

Starting with the 07 Season, all games with TP from the start:

Week 1 Against Cleveland, 0/2, Fumble and INT

Week 2 against Bills, 0/1, Punt

Week 3 against 49ers, 1/2, TD, Downs, both in 2nd half.

Week 4 against Cardinals, 0/1, Missed FG, They ran the clock out at the end to seal the win.

Week 5 against Seattle, 0/2, INT, Punt

Week 7 Against Broncos, 1/1, FG,

Week 8 against Cincy, 1/1, FG

Week 9 against Ravens, 1/2, TD and Punt

Week 10 against Cleveland, 0/1, MIssed 52yd FG to tie game.

Week 11 against NYJ, 2/2 FG, they made a FG in OT to win.

Week 12 Against MIami, 0/1, Punt, Mud bowl game.

Looking at the 08 Season,

First game against Houston: 1/2, A TD. It was in garbage time toward the end though.

Week 2 against Cleveland: 0/0,

Week 3 Against Eagles, 2/3, 2 FGs and an INT.

Week 4 against Ravens, 1/2, 1 FG

Week 5 against Jags, 0/1, Fumble recovery

Week 7 against Cinci, 1/2, TD (mind you this was a 38/10 ass beating, yet 7 points were at the end of 1H)

Week 8 against Giants, 0/1, They had a TD with 3:08 to go in the 4th though... still gotta draw the line somewhere.

Week 9 against Redskins, 0/2, Punt Block and a INT. Great game by our short time D.

Week 10 against Colts, 1/2, Punt, TD 1st half, they scored a TD in the second half with 3:10 left. Bad.

Week 11 against Chargers, 0/1, INT.

Week 12 against Cincy, 0/3, Punt (which was muffed, giving them a second chance), Downs, INT.

Week 13 against Pats, 0/2, Missed FG 27 yarder, and downs at end of game. Shoulda had a FG.

Week 14 against Cowboys, 1/3, FG, INT (desheas pick 6), downs.

Week 15 against Ravens, 1/2, FG, INT

Week 16 against Titans, 0/2, Both got into our territory but ended in punts. Good effort by the D.

Week 17 against Browns, 0/2, Punt and Downs

Now, I want to look at our stats, WITHOUT Troy Polamalu, Looking back in 07 and Going into this year:

07, Bengals, 0/1, Downs

07, Against pats, 1/2, FG

07, Against JAX (not playoff), 2/2, Both TDs

07, Rams, 1/2, FG and Downs

07, Ravens, 1/2, FG and Punt

07 Jax Playoff, 1/2, Missed FG, and a GWFG.

Week 1, Titans, 1/3, Blocked FG in the first chance, TD right after, then punted. They ran out clock for OT later.

Week 2, Bears, 2/2, Huge TD drive for the 1st half, and a big GWFG at the end.

First of all, what can we learn from these numbers? Well, in 2008, we allowed 223 points. Tops in the NFL on defense. 36 points were allowed under 3 minutes to go. Thats 16% of the points we give up come in just 10% of the game.

In 2007, we allowed 269 points in total. 2nd in the league. Thats 46 more points than in 08. 145 Points were given up in 12 games with Troy Polamalu. We gave up 26 points, or 16.5% of our points in the final 3 minutes of halves with TP in house. Nearly IDENTICAL to the 16% we gave up last year in 08.

Looking at the points allowed without Troy Polamalu:

In the mentioned 2007 games without TP, including the one playoff, we gave up 155 points, thats a shit ton... Thats more than the rest of 07 in just half the time, 6 games. Plus these two this year makes for 182 points in 8 total games.

Of those 182, we gave up 43 points in the final 3 minutes of halves. Thats 24%.

The math: We gave up 16.5% of our total points in the final 3 minutes of games in 07, and 08, WITH TROY. Without him, that number jumps 50% to 24%.

What we also learn is, without Troy Polamalu, we've allowed 9/16 opportunities to convert to points. Thats 57%, whereas with him, its just 14/46 chances, or 30% (07 data included)

Let that sink in, and let me rephrase it: Without Troy Polamalu, our opponents have a 27% greater chance of scoring inside 3 minutes to go in a half. Without Troy Polamalu we are giving up nearly a quarter of our total points allowed in the most important moments in the game. In addition our points allowed in 07 skyrocketed without Troy Polamalu. Allowing more than your first 12 games worth, in just 6 games, is quite a feat.

Yes without Troy Polamalu our defense is hurting. Quality of our opponents is not the real problem here. We all know the vicious schedule we played last year. It was a brutal one. Yet we handled most all of those without many issues. Even those scores we did give up, several came off of short field situations such as a turnover. This year, we played two quality teams, and looked quite bad in short time without Troy Polamalu.

Folks, we need to pray and hope that we get this man back soon, and that in the meantime we figure out a way to stop that fast paced offense that we are so poorly performing against.

I hope this detailed review has shown us just how valuable our Troy Polamalu is. Harrison may have won the DMVP award, but on this team, its clear who makes the difference.

*Having expanded the research field through the back of 07 only further confirms the analysis. Throughout all of 07 our team played great short time defense, that is, until Troy left. In addition we see that the percentage of points given up inside 3 minutes with Troy is the same from 07 to 08.

Mechem's Titans vs Steelers Preview

Mechem — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:10:15 -0000

Thanks to Mechem for an excellent early preview that is full of great tidbits on what to expect for Thursday's season opener. Be sure to stop back this week as the content, analysis, and news will be flowing fast and furious in preperation for the Week One Match-Up versus the Tennesse Titans. (DYM)

The much anticipated beginning to the NFL season is almost upon us. Yes in just 3 days we will be watching the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Tennessee Titans. The long offseason is over. Time for football. And really, could there be a better way to start the season than taking two very similar, very potent teams with some bad blood and sour grapes, and smashing them together on primetime? I think not.

The last game ended up being a 17 point loss, but in reality, it was not nearly so bad on the field. I believe this game showed us that there are plenty of things that work against the Titans, and it can give us some clues as to what to expect on Thursday.

We also face the EXACT same team as last year. The Titans also return 20/22 starters. One of those that is gone is Albert Haynesworth, who we didnt play anyway. The other is Ryan Fowler, who started every game up until ours, and was replaced by Stephen Tulloch. Fowler was released the other day. So we literally face an identical opponent. Even recent acquisition Nate Washington is not a lock to play due to injury.

Breaking down the last game a little closer:

The passing statistic was quite interesting. Ben Roethlisberger went off to the tune of 25/39 for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. Quite a high set of numbers for him on all accounts. His counterpart Kerry Collins, kept the passing game low key. Mostly dink and dunk catches chewed up 215 yards, with just one pass over 20 yards.

The rushing of each team was relatively mild. The Titans averaged 3.8 per carry, and the dynamic duo of Smash and Dash got just 117 combined. 21 of which was a long break by Chris Johnson from a rare missed tackle by Ike Taylor. Our own Willie Parker was rendered mute by the Titans defense, as was rather expected. Interestingly though, Waltzing Mewelde Moore had a 9.3 yard per carry average, going 3 for 28 with a 17 yard long run in there.

Despite throwing for more yards, slowing the usually devastating Titans run game, rare GOOD punting by Berger (44 average, and 2 in the 20 on 5 attempts), and even winning the time of possession battle by just one minute, the Steelers lost handily. And this was due to several horribly timed turnovers. Mr Roethlisberger was harassed more or less all day, and this led to 4 fumbles. Two of his were lost.

In addition, Ben threw 2 interceptions. One was the game ending heave returned for a touchdown, further inflating the final score. But the other was costly, and gave the Titans much needed points.

Fast forward to Thursday. Where do I see this game heading:
I expect entirely to see us come right out with a lot of quick passing routes. Shortening the drops and keeping Ben upright should be a priority. While we did manage several passes deep, over 20 yards in the last game, Ben took way too many hits for that to continue. The short game worked then too, with Heath Miller getting 8 catches for 69 yards and only one over 15 yards.

This game will be an immense challenge for an offensive line, that will return 4/5 starters from last year. None of which stood out as being particularly great. But 3 of our starting linemen have new contracts, and hopefully they can form a core unit. This week will be a huge test, but if they pass, it should spell good things for the season to follow.

When the short passes are working, we can hopefully get the tight front 7 of the Titans to back off just a bit. This will open up the running game for "Finally Well Parker." In addition, I'm sure the coaching staff will be excited to mix in Mendenhall and perhaps Moore for some carries. As we saw, when Moore snuck in there, his change of pace resulted in big gains last time around. I expect the same with whoever we change up to.

Our offense should also be given the help of our new return man Stefan Logan. We had exactly a 1 yard per punt return average, and just 15 per kick return. Hopefully that changes.

Defensively, what worked last time will work again. I don't see much of a threat here. The one thing we will likely see is more attention towards Justin Gage. He quietly broke the 100 yard mark against us in the last game on just 5 receptions. He came up big on several 3rd downs, and every catch was a long one. He was the only one to break a long catch on us in that game, and so its important to isolate that and remove it. In addition, we need to bring the heat on the pass rush. Even man-beast James Harrison was held to our only sack, and nobody else got anywhere near Collins. With plenty of time, Collins will do his dink and dunk junk all day.

I foresee with a revised game plan, designed to prevent Ben taking a boof every other snap, we wont lose any fumbles to the Tennessee Titans. And in addition, Ben should have no problems with INTs. The one INT that mattered was from pressure. Ben chewed up their secondary otherwise.

Essentially this game comes down to our offensive line. Can they give Ben just a little more comfort room? Can Ben get rid of the ball if they cant? And can somebody on defense make a play when needed? Perhaps a Brett Keisel line tip that gets picked off, or a Polamalu INT out of nowhere? Kerry Collins is quite safe with the football, and therefore we need to elevate our game to win that Turnover battle.

Considering that the final score of the last one should have been 24-14, that is the score I predict for this game. Only the other way around. Were it not for that last desperate INT returned for a TD, that score would have happened. This last game felt worlds apart, but was very close. I think the Steelers close the gap, fix the only problem they had, and win this one in a tough fight.