SB Nation User Blog: Meddler

Outfielder Valuation and Mike Cameron

Meddler — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:56:27 -0000

With all the talk of Jason Bay floating around, and specifically comparing him to Mike Cameron, I thought now would be a good time to discuss methods of outfielder valuation. When we talk about valuing players, we often talk about positional adjustments, which per 150 games are typically interpreted in this way:

C: +12.5 runs
SS: +7.5
2B/3B/CF: +2.5
RF/LF: -7.5
1B: -12.5
DH: -17.5

Regarding the infield, this is particularly important, since different skillsets are required to defense different infield positions. Because of this, we can interpret the values of different infielders at different positions as fixed to the position they play. Even if their offensive value remains the same at a different position, their value relative to the defensive average will vary widely from position to position in completely different ways for different players, depending on what defensive skills they have. Long wingspan and quick reactions will play well at first base and third base. A strong arm will play well at third base and shortstop. First step quickness and ability to stay low to the ground will play well at shortstop and second base. The ability to take hard slides will play better at second base. Moving a quality defensive Shortstop to first base, you wouldn't likely get enough extra defensive production to make up for the difference in the baseline positional values, and the same is true vice versa.

The outfield, however, is a completely different story. In the outfield, skillsets generally translate well position to position. There really isn't anything technically different a right fielder does than a left fielder, or even from a center fielder. There are some nuances that are different, a ball hit to left or right field generally travels differently than a ball hit straight. Right fielders have longer throws to make. But neither of these things even come close to accounting for the primary aspects of defensive value for outfielders. Research done by Tom Tango using 2007 and 2008 UZR data supports this assumption. By comparing players who have played multiple outfield positions, he has determined that players switching between a corner outfield spot and center field usually gain or lose about 11 runs compared to average. This suggests that the average defensive corner outfielder is worth roughly 11 runs less than the average defensive center fielder, and further that moving a center fielder to a corner spot, his UZR numbers would be expected to increase by about 11 runs over a full season. This 11 run mark is very similar to the 10 run difference in positional adjustments that we make when evaluating a center fielder against a corner outfielder. And what it means in most cases, except for the very extreme ones where a player's skillset would diminish his value in a different position (Think Jack Cust in centerfield), is that an outfielders total value is going to be roughly the same in a corner outfield position as compared to center field.

One of the problems with applying this conclusion to Mike Cameron is that at first glance, he seems not to fit the model. He did play one full season in a corner outfield spot, and many of us remember it well as the year Carlos Voltron usurped his center field position, where "Cammy" had been oh-so-stellar through most of his career. His UZR in right field actually decreased from the marks he'd been putting up prior, and his career UZR/150 is lower in right field than in center field. There are some problems with this type of analysis though. First, there is no UZR data prior to 2002, Cameron's age 29 season. Intuitively, adding this hypothetical "missing data" you might say that it would probably bring his career UZR/150 in center field up, only enhancing the separation. But if we assume that prior to 2002 Cameron had been an elite center fielder, in line with much of the UZR data we have as well as his reputation, it does look like there's an actual drop-off in his production right before 2005. Rather than providing elite defense in center in 2004, he was merely decent. He had a 4.0 UZR in 135 games, which is his career low up until that point using the data available, and could have very well been his career low up until that point if there was data available prior to 2002. And then, when Cameron returned to center field after being traded away by the Mets in 2006, his UZR fell to -0.1 in 141 games, and the following year all the way to -10.2 in 150 games. Its bounced back in the two seasons since to the elite level it was at prior to 2004, but it does look like Cameron may have just gone through a sustained period of his career where his defense simply wasn't as good as its been at other times. In fact, if you tally up his UZR in the roughly 430 games he played in center field from 2004-2007, his UZR/150 mark is -2.25. While that may not be a 10 run difference from his 1.9 UZR mark from 2005 in RF, it is much more consistent looking with Tango's results than just looking at Cameron's career scope, and it also falls within the realm of a typical normal distribution swing given the sample sizes we're dealing with. In addition, -1.4 of Cameron's right field UZR mark comes from a career worst ErrR, which is at least as likely to be a small sample size aberration as a representation of an actual skill difference, if not moreso.

If the opportunity cost of signing Jason Bay is a much less expensive deal that entails a shorter commitment to Mike Cameron, signing Bay is probably a mistake. It may very well be that Cameron doesn't want to come back to New York, or would prefer to continue to play center field. But if he's willing to consider a reunion with his former New York club, its an avenue the front office must explore. If you assume his value doesn't change much between CF and RF/LF, he projects very similarly to Bay in the short term and should absolutely be an option for a team that's had such a hard time finding valuable corner outfielders over the last few years. The money saved with Cameron could be used on numerous and necessary fixes to a roster filled with holes, both in the immediate short term and down the road, when Bay is less likely to be worth the value of whatever contract he gets.

Chapman to Throw Next Week, Mets to Watch

Meddler — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:05:46 -0000

Chapman to Throw Next Week, Mets to Watch

There's some buzz now that despite the $60 million pricetag that was floated around earlier this offseason, Chapman may get less than $20 million. If this is the case, he could very well become one of the better high-risk fits for a team like the Mets. The problem presented with matching up a different high risk guy, say Sheets or Bedard, with a lower upside "innings eater," is that it forces someone, most likely John Maine, out of the rotation right away. Then if they did get hurt, Jon Niese and Nelson Figueroa would essentially be the only replacement options. With Chapman, who would be in his first year of service time, he could be out-righted to the minors after the spring if he didn't look quite polished enough yet. Maine could keep his spot warm, and Niese and Chapman could essentially compete in Triple-A to be the guy who forces Maine to the pen eventually.

Yanks, D'Backs, Tigers Three-Way is Close

Meddler — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:48:06 -0000

Yanks, D'Backs, Tigers Three-Way is Close

According to multiple sources. The Yankees would receive Curtis Granderson, the D'Backs Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers would get Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth. I'm personally hoping this deal goes through, so we can stop hearing about how "great" Austin Jackson is from Yankee Fans.

Bob Melvin Brought into the Fold

Meddler — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:20:57 -0000

Bob Melvin Brought into the Fold

According to Joel Sherman, he's been hired as a Major League scout. Just one more manager waiting in the weeds for Jerry to let Pedro Feliciano pitch to Matt Diaz again.

Davey Johnson Advocated False Hustle

Meddler — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:58:08 -0000

Davey Johnson Advocated False Hustle

All it ever got him was a championship.

Hat tip to arnec at BtB for the link.

Project Prospect Rankings By Position

Meddler — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:23:48 -0000

Project Prospect Rankings By Position

Projectprospect.com has been running a series on the top prospects in the minors for each position, going 15 deep at each position and 30 deep for pitchers. The Project Prospect philosophy is more about giving credit for high floors than some other big prospect pundit, though upside is still obviously considered. Here are the Mets farmies who appear in the rankings (rank on respective list in parenthesis):

John Niese, P (16)
Jenrry Mejia, P (18)
Fernando Martinez, CF (3)
Ruben Tejada, SS (13)
Reese Havens, 2B (5)
Ike Davis, 1B (7)

The Mets had no ranked players on the Catcher, Third Base, or Corner Outfield lists.

Rays Closing in on Shoppach

Meddler — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:36:35 -0000

Rays Closing in on Shoppach

How come whenever we all agree on an idea here at AA, it seems like the Red Sox or Rays are the ones to pull the trigger on it?

The Inevitable, Alex Cora Close to Resigning

Meddler — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:38:43 -0000

The Inevitable, Alex Cora Close to Resigning

Apparently he's getting his $2 million, once again guaranteed, this time with some type of vesting option.

Josh Thole: Too Good for the Venezuelan Winter League

Meddler — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:34:45 -0000

Josh Thole: Too Good for the Venezuelan Winter League

After going 2 for 4 with his third HR of the season, in 37 games, Thole is now hitting .392 / .493 / .584. He leads the league in AVG, OBP, OPS, and doubles, and has a crazy 24/13 BB/K. He's sixth in walks, and his 3 HR are more than he's hit in any stateside professional season save his 2008 in the FSL. He's also among the league leaders with 17 total XBH. He's essentially the Joe Mauer of the VWL.

Free Mock Draft Site - Couch Managers

Meddler — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:51:44 -0000

Free Mock Draft Site - Couch Managers

For those of us who go a little stir crazy in the baseball offseason, Mock Drafts are a good way to pass the time until, at the very least, the Fantasy Draft season starts. Mock Draft Central is the most commonly known resource for Mock drafting, especially this early in the year, but non-premium users are limited to one per day, and even for premium users, they're only running two drafts each day anyway. Couch Managers appears to be completely free, but no one uses it, so I figured I'd pimp it out a bit and see if I could get some traffic over there so I'm not just competing with 9 auto-draft slots.