SB Nation User Blog: Metty5

Draft Review

Metty5 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:34:52 -0000

Since it is the boring off season I figured I would post my leagues amy draft. I've been this pretty deep league competitive league for 3ish years but the league has been around for 10 years. We get a pick a month too which means each team is getting 14ish players a year. If the player doesn't sign (we start the draft in July and end in October) you loose him and get a compensation pick the following year.I think the signing deadline was around pick 70. Oh and we do FA compensation based on our comish's formula so you see that here too.

Let me know what you think.

Round 1:

1. AZ-Steven Strasburg RHP- Nationals
2. Hou(Stl)-Dustin Ackley OF -SEA
3. CWS- Donovan Tate OF Padres
4. LAD- Jacob Turner RHP- DET
5. CHC- Grant Green - SS - Oak
6. Det-Aaron Crow RHP KC
7. NYY-Tyler Matzek LHP Col
8. Sea-Zach Wheeler RHP SF
9. LAD(ATL)-Kyle Gibson RHP- MIN
10. Tor-Mike Minor LHP ATL
11. Hou- Mike Leake P Cin
12. Bos-Tanner Scheppers RHP - TEX
13. Tex(AZ(Tex))-Matt Purke - LHP - TEX
14. Phi-Shelby Miller - RHP - STL

Round 1 Sandwich:

15. Cubs (Aaron Crow)-Alex White - RHP - CLE
16. Sea(Phi (AJ Burnett))-Bobby Borchering -3b -AZ
17. Phi (Adam Dunn)-Matt Hobgood Balt SP
18. Tor (Trevor Hoffman)-Drew Storen RHP Wash
19. ATL(LA (Pat Burrell))-Mike Trout OF LAA
20. Tex(Det (Gerrit Cole))-Jiovanni Mier SS Hou

Round 2:
21. AZ-Slade Heathcott, OF NYY
22. CWS(Chc(Stl))-Jared Mitchell OF CWS
23. CWS-Tony Sanchez C Pit
24. LAD- Reymond Fuentes OF BOS
25. CWS(CHC)-Chad James SP Fla
26. Det-Eric Arnett, P-MIL
27. NYY- Tim Wheeler OF Col
28. Phi(Sea)-James Paxton LHP Tor
29. ATL-Matt Davidson 3b AZ
30. Tor-Rex Brothers LHP Col
31. Hou-Chad Jenkins SP TOR
32. Sea(Bos)- Garrett Gould, RHP LAD
33. Tex-Victor Black, RHP Pit
34. Phi-A.J. Pollock, OF Ariz

Round 2 Sandwich:

35. Det (Andy Pettitte)-Billy Bullock, RHP-MIN
36. AZ (Orlando Hudson)-Brett Jackson OF- CUBS
37. CHC(Det (Tanner Scheppers))-Everett Williams -SD - OF
38. Phi (Juan Cruz/Drabek)-LeVon Washington OF TB

Round 3:

39. AZ-Marc Krauss OF Arizona
40. AZ(Stl)-Alex Wilson P Red Sox
41. CHC(CWS)-Wil Myers - C/3B - KC
42. LAD-Rich Poythress 1B Sea
43. ATL(LAD(CHC))- Randal Grichuk, OF LAA
44. Det-Max Stassi, C Oak ;
45. AZ(NYY)-Nolan Arenado INF Rockies
46. Sea-Andy Oliver, LHP Detroit
47. LAD(ATL)-Josh Prince, SS MIL
48. Tor-Tommy Mendonca, 3B Tex
49. Hou- Pat Corbin P LAA*
50. Sea(Bos)- Nick Franklin, SS - SEA
51. Tex- Tommy Joseph, C/1B - SF
52. Phi-Tyler Kehrer, LHP - LAA

Round 3 Sandwich:

53. Det(CHC (Alex Meyer))- Tyler Skaggs, LHP - LAA
54. Det (Casey Blake)-Kyle Heckathorn, RHP - MIL
55. Phi (Jason Izzy)-Mychal Givens, RHP - BAL
56. Det (Jon Garland)-Max Walla, OF - MIL
57. Bos (Jason Varitek)-Brad Boxberger - P - Reds
58. LAD (Russell Branyan)-Matt Bashore - P, MIN

Round 4:

59. AZ-Trayce Thompson OF-White Sox
60. Det(Stl)-Jason Kipnis, OF - CLE
61. Det(CHC(CWS))-Jason Stoffel, RHP - SF
62. LAD- Chris Dominguez - 3B - SF
63. Bos(CHC)-Aaron Miller - LHP - LAD
64. CHC(Det)-David Renfroe SS/RHP BOS
65. NYY-Robert Stock C- STL
66. Chc(Sea)-Sam Dyson - RHP - OAK
67. Phi(ATL)-Steven Matz LHP NYM
68. Tor-DJ LeMahieu 2B Cubs
69. Hou- Steven Inch P Phi*
70. Bos-Zack Von Rosenberg P Pit
71. Tex-Robbie Erlin SP Tex
72. Tex(Atl(Phi))-Colton Cain SP Pit

Round 4 Sandwich:

73. Tex(Atl (Nick Punto))-Kent Matthes OF Col
74. NYY (Griffey)-Brandon Jacobs OF BOS
75. CWS (Freddy Garcia)-Mike Belfiore lhp AZ

Round 5:

76. Bos(Sea(Phi(AZ)))-Chris Owings SS AZ
77. Stl-Jeff Kobernus 2b WAS
78. CWS-Trevor Holder rhp Was
79. LAD-Jake Marisnick OF TOR
80. Atl(Phi(CHC))-Keyvius Sampson P SD
81. Det-Daniel Fields, SS-DET
82. Tex(Phi(Sea(NYY)))-Madison Younginer SP Bos
83. Sea-Brody Colvin RHP Phi
84. ATL-Todd Glaesman OF TB
85. CWS(Phi(Tex(Tor)))-Chris Dwyer P KC
86. Sea(Hou)-Kendal Volz, RHP BOS
87. Bos- Kentrail Davis OF MIL
88. Atl(Tex)-Luke Bailey C TB
89. Sea(Phi)-Daniel Webb, RHP TOR

Round 6:

90. AZ-Billy Hamilton SS Reds
91. Tex(Stl)*-Wes Musick P Col
92. Det(Cubs(CWS))- Ben Tootle, P-MIN
93. Phi(ATL(LAD))-Robbie Shields SS Mets
94. LAD(CHC)-Ryan Wheeler, 1B, ARI
95. Det-Brooks Raley, P-CHC
96. NYY-Steven Baron C Sea
97. Sea-Jeff Malm, 1b TB
98. ATL-Cameron Coffey P Balt
99. Tex(Tor)-David Nick 2B AZ
100. Hou- Ryan Buch P CWS*
101. AZ(Sea(Bos))- A.J. Morris- Wash
102. Phi(Tex)-J.R. Murphy (C, Yankees)
103. Phi-Josh Phegley (C, White Sox)

Round 7:

104. Phi(Tex(AZ))-Garrett Richards (RHP, Angels)
105. Stl-Blake Smith OF Dodgers
106. CHC(CWS)-Michael Ohlman C BAL
107. LAD-Ian Krol, P, OAK
108. CHC- Brooks Hall P/3B MIL
109. Stl(Det)-Joshua Fellhauer CF reds
110. NYY- Brooks Pounders RHP Pit
111. Chc(Sea)-Bryan Mitchell NYY RHP
112. ATL-David Hale P ATL
113. Tex(Tor)- Carlos Ramirez C LAA
114. Hou- Randy Henry - Balt
115. AZ(Bos)- Tanner Bushue-P-Astros
116. Tex- Jonathan Singleton, 1B Philly
117. Tex(Phi)- Chris Balcom-Miller, SP Colorado

Rising Stars Chat

Metty5 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:24:28 -0000

I figured we would see something like this - but there isn't one yet.

Post your thoughts, reactions, ideas etc.

AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFLAFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL AFL

Twins Acquire J.J. Hardy For Carlos Gomez

Metty5 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:19:40 -0000

Interesting steal for the Twins.

Brewers trade Hardy for Gomez By Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel

Nov. 6, 2009 10:50 a.m.

As it turns out, the Brewers will not be trading shortstop J.J. Hardy for pitching help after all. Instead, the Brewers used Hardy today to address their centerfield position, trading him to the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez, a speedster who has been an offensive underachiever.

The move makes it clear that the Brewers have decided to part ways with veteran centerfielder Mike Cameron, who is eligible for free agency. Cameron, 36, has been the starter in center for two years but made $10 million in salary this year, and the Brewers obviously plan to use that money in their attempts to upgrade their starting rotation.

Gomez, who will be 24 on Dec. 4, was one of four players traded by the New York Mets to the Twins on Jan. 29, 2008 for left-hander Johan Santana. Considered one of the top prospects in the Mets’ organization, he replaced the departed Torii Hunter as Minnesota’s starting centerfielder and batted .258 in 153 games that season with 24 doubles, seven triples, seven homers, 59 RBI and 33 stolen bases.

Gomez began the 2009 season as the starting centerfielder but batted only .195 through the first month and was moved to a reserve role. In 137 games and only 315 at-bats, he batted .229 with three homers and 28 RBI, with 15 doubles, three triples and 14 stolen bases. His on-base percentage was .287.

In 348 major league games, the right-handed-hitting Gomez has batted .246 with 12 homers and 99 RBI, with 59 stolen bases. He has a .292 on-base percentage and .337 slugging percentage. Not exactly what you want to see from a player whose main tool is speed.

Hardy, 27, became the Brewers’ starting shortstop in 2005, a role he held until August of this season. Mired in a dreadful slump that he couldn’t shake, Hardy was sent down to Class AAA Nashville in a somewhat stunning move and replaced by prospect Alcides Escobar, promoted from that club.

In 115 games, Hardy batted .229 with 11 homers and 47 RBI. It was in start contrast to the previous two seasons, when Hardy batted .277 with 26 homers and 80 RBI, and .283 with 24 homers and 74 RBI, respectively.

By keeping Hardy in the minors exactly 20 days, the Brewers pushed back his free agency until after the 2011 season, making him more palatable in a trade. In the meantime, Escobar took over the shortstop job and excelled, batting .304 in 38 games.

Hardy mostly sat on the bench after returning in September, and it was evident that the Brewers were ready to turn the page at shortstop. It was quite a fall from grace for a player who made the National League all-star team in 2007.

Escobar, who turns 23 in December, batted .298 with 24 doubles, six triples, four homers, 34 RBI and 42 stolen bases in 109 games with Nashville before being promoted. A superior defensive shortstop, he is rated the No. 1 prospect in the organization by Baseball America magazine.

Hardy made $4.65 million this season and Escobar will make just over the minimum of $400,000, so there’s a financial component to the deal as well. Hardy is eligible for arbitration again this winter and such players usually get raises even with off seasons.

Gomez made $437,500 this year and I believe he qualifies for arbitration this winter exactly with the 2 years, 141 days needed for “Super 2” status.

The Brewers will lose considerable pop in center with the exodus of Cameron. He hit 25 homers with 70 RBI in 2008 after signing a free-agent deal, and socked 24 homers with 70 RBI this year. Cameron also played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center but was strikeout prone, with 142 Ks in ’08 and 156 this year while compiling a .342 on-base percentage.

Cameron is a Class B free agent. To get a supplemental draft pick in exchange for him signing with another club, the Brewers would have to offer him salary arbitration. Because the signing club doesn’t forfeit a pick, he might sign before that deadline, however, giving the Brewers the draft pick.

Cameron filed for free agency Thursday, the first day players were eligible to do so. Other Brewers filing were catcher Jason Kendall, second baseman Felipe Lopez, and outfielders Frank Catalanotto and Corey Patterson.

HERE IS A QUOTE FROM GM DOUG MELVIN ABOUT GOMEZ:

“Carlos brings to our club great speed, athleticism and energy at a position that we needed to fill,” said Melvin. “His defense will serve as a key component to us improving our pitching. At only 24 years of age, Carlos can further develop the offensive aspect of his game and give us a different look to our lineup.”

AND ABOUT HARDY:

“J.J. has been a steady performer for the Brewers,” said Melvin. “His professionalism and popularity with our fans and his teammates made this difficult, but he has been given the opportunity to go to a great organization to play and perform at the high level he is capable of playing.”

Bumgarner up?!?

Metty5 — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:25:57 -0000

Hmmmmm.

UPDATE: Bumgarner to start tonight for Lincecum?

Henry Schulman reporting from the ballpark:

I want to stress that I have not confirmed this directly, but I'm getting a strong vibe that Madison Bumgarner is being promoted so he can start tonight's game in favor of Tim Lincecum, who presumably cannot start because he is hurt.

I've been told that manager Bruce Bochy is going to make an announcement at 3:45 p.m., when the clubhouse opens to the media, which is very unusual. He normally talks around 4:30.

I'll update as soon as possible:

Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' best pitching prospect, is being called up to the majors today.

If it was a surprise catcher Buster Posey got a September promotion, this is even more of a stunner considering Bumgarner is two years out of high school. He was the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft.

The Giants might want to see how Bumgarner handles himself this month because he might be a candidate for a rotation spot next year.

At Double-A Connecticut, the lefty was 9-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 107 innings, striking out 69 and walking 30.

He opened the year with Single-A San Jose and was 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA in five starts.

Bargaining the Draft

Metty5 — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:38:31 -0000

Much has been made about this year's draft breaking the mold. Many prospect watchers and fans have called for an overhaul. In the end, only two first rounders Washington (Tampa Bay) and Purke(Texas) refused to sign contracts. Equal to the number that didn't sign last season (Cole with NYY and Crow with WAS). Crow has a different set of circumstances surrounding his deadline, but to date, he hasn't entered the 2010 draft pool yet.

Does the draft need to be reworked? Lets take a look.

There are varying view points on what the draft really is in place for. I believe it is a combination of two schools of thought. The first and more traditional concept is to help level the playing field. The second, is to keep salaries down by limiting draftees' options. As I said before, the answer lies in between these two scenarios.

Today, Major League Baseball has a slotting recommendation which, as we saw the 16th, means absolutely nothing. Teams willing to spend money will work the system (Tigers, Royals, Yankees, As, Red Sox) and teams who don't get left behind (Mets are an obvious one). Does the current system lead to the worst teams having a shot at the best players? Yes. Does it mean they'll end up signing them? No, and that could be why they are drafting so highly in the first place. How can a team like the Nationals take the 10th best player available, when they need to sign the best player for 15.67 million? They would/could need to make sacrifices like the Pirates did with Tony Sanchez.

The draft doesn't work in a bubble however. The international system and free agency are heavily correlated to the draft. So we'll need to account for that as well.

How do we fix the draft?

1. Draft Pick Signing Bonuses

In order to ensure that the best players end up on the worst teams I would institute a hard slotting system. Each draft position would be designated a dollar amount prior to the draft. One's first thought should be, why would the Union ever agree to such a thing? Its a bargaining situation, so the owners would have to give something up. Before I get into that though, lets round out the hard slotting system. Personally, I see the money being spread out throughout the slots a little more, to account for the players who are signing after round 5 for a million dollars. They money spent by an organization is less overall, because teams wouldn't be able to go over slot randomly and by 600%, but the slots would be slightly higher.

2. Move the draft back

Right now, the June draft is at the end of the college season. I'd move it back slightly to the All - Star break. Have the draft be the night of the futures game (or something). Trotting the players out and about could build some hype for the draft. It also allows teams to know exactly what they are drafting. They don't have to worry about players being used as a RP the day after a start, after they draft their rights. Maybe have a combine for the players that are in the draft pool.

3. Add in the International Players to the draft pool.

Have a overall draft with the international guys too. Doesn't it seem strange that 16 year old (really? these guys are 16?) showcase players have a market advantage over Americans born kids? This needs to be corrected and the scandals need to be cleaned up. Without the high money incentive to the bucones there could be less talent. But I see the teams taking their place with training facilities. Lots of secrecy could be involved with teams hiding talent from others so they can draft their own guys. Regardless if the latter of this idea happens, adding these players into the same draft pool will keep money in owner's pockets, while cleaning up the system.

4. What do the Owners change for the Union? Arbitration.

In order to keep the "outrageous" prices down in the draft, the Union would be agreeing to a hard slotting system which would lower the amount paid to amateur players. In return they'll ask for arbitration to be revamped. First, rather than three arbitration years at 40/60/80% of the player's perceived value, there will be four arbitration years at 20/40/60/80. This would result in just two minimum salary years, rather than an additional year of arbitration. What this does, is spread the money in the owners' pockets that would have been spent on draft to veteran major leaguers who actually make it to the "show". The new first year arbitration year will allow players to deserve to make money, to actually get it.

5. The Union wants a few more changes to arbitration. Service Clock

This is a tough one to change. Right now, the service clock starts when a player reaches the major leagues. Typically one gets to arbitration after his third year in the MLB, but there is also super two status. Super two players are players who've been in the MLB 86 games the previous year and are in the top 17% of players who've played 2 years in the league, but not three.

But, now we have a system where a player reaches arbitration after his second year. But that doesn't stop a team from prolonging that process. What the Union and owners agree to is if a player plays in 60 games in a season it is considered his full year of service time (including injuries, demotions, etc...but not the expanded roster period). What this accomplishes is greater pressure on teams to call up their players for a full season. If a team is going to wait until almost August to bring up a player who would help their team be in possible playoff contention, that something they'll have to answer to their fan base about.

6. Changing Free Agent Compensation

MLB wouldn't penalize teams for signing players. Each FA would be offered arbitration from their previous team like they are today. Decline the offer would mean the team has a window to sign the player on their own. Not offering arb at all means the team would not receive compensation for loosing said player. The new element is that a team wouldn't loose a pick for signing a player, rather a new pick would be created. Last season, the Yankees signed CC, Tex, and AJ and both Milwaukee and Toronto got screwed by a situation entirely out of their hands. Each FA will be evaluated and assigned a compensation pick(s), regardless of who signs them. The other element is the Juan Cruz situation. Cruz, after paying his dues in the MLB, wasn't really a FA, because which ever team signed him would lose their first rounder. This enables players to truly be free.

7. Trading Picks

This will add excitement. Period. While there are owners (maybe one in Florida) that could force their GMs to sell their picks to increase profits, it would destroy a team in the long run. Especially because they cannot go over slot later to compensate or sign international players.

Three Ideas/Modifcations

1. Instead of having a hard slotting system throughout, maybe have it from the 1s round on, forgetting the 1st round. The 1st would become an open round with no slots. This would increase the amount of trades in the first round and allow those exceptional players to get more money.

2. Like the idea above, this idea is gauged to the exceptional players. Each team could get one slot exemption that they could sign any player they drafted for any amount the team and player agree on.

3. Personally, I think the above is possible. However, I don't think that there should be a draft. I think each player should be able to choose his employer. This is radical, but if you graduate college, would you expect someone to come to your house and say, "pack up, we're moving cross country. Oh and by the way this is the only way for you to work in this field of work."

I hope you enjoyed.

Poll

What do you think of these draft changes?

July 10th Minor League Tread

Metty5 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:02:36 -0000

Yesterday was the first day in quite some time we haven't had one of these. Maybe because Minor League Splits is doing such a fantasic job.

Today we found out Villalona went down for 4 weeks with a quadrcep injury.

Pitching Today: Cortes, JC Ramirez, Jeff Allison, J. C. Sulbaran, Dave Bush (Rehab), Kyle Davies (rehab), Martin Perez, Robbie, Ross, Eric Arnett.

For a complete (or more complete) list, check out Splits.

Duel of the Day: Rome v Greenville,Randall Delgado vs. Steven Fife.

Since there wasn't a post yesterday, here are some nice lines.

Latos: 5IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 7 SO

Paker: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO

Alverez: 2-3 2B BB, ZERO SO (YAY) 3R

Jaff Decker 3-4, 2B BB, 3R

Chris Heisey 3-6 HR, 2B, 4RBI

Roy Halladay for...??

Metty5 — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:28:49 -0000

Hey all,

Obviously there has been a lot of speculation about Doc this season. It seems now that J.P. will listen to offers at this point.

So let speculating begin!!!

I'm going to assume that no team in the AL East is going to be considered, if you disgree thats cool, but I won't mention them.

Phillies -- everyone has been pointing at them it seems. Could a package of Drabek, Donald, and Taylor get it done?

Mets - they have no farm, but if they want them maybe they deal Flores, Mejia, and Martinez. Could that get it done? ( I don't think so)

Braves - They have enough, but do they really need pitching?

Florida - A great fit if they can fork up the dough. Doc could really teach that staff something. Uggla (shift hill to SS) Maybin, Stanton? Too much?

Dodgers - I don't think they NEED him, but he would certainly put the World Series in California, right? Ethier, Gordon, and Troncoso?

Colorado - They could try, but would Doc nix the deal? I think so. Gomez, Stewart, and Chacin (Friedrich too?)?

St. Louis - They need a bat, or they could invest in cloning Albert Pujols. But if they were to make a run, do they have enough?

Brewers - This seems like a good fit to me, Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie compare to what the Phillies can offer.

Cubs - Do they have the money left? I don't think they have enough, though.

White Sox - Flowers and Beckham would have to be the starting place.

Twins - this doen't seem like their type of move.

Angles - Brandon Wood (Free Wood! Free Wood!) Reckling, Rodriguez?

Texas - Another good fit, IMO, Perez, Davis (would they take a chance on him? would tex deal him), M. Ramiriez, and Borbon?

just some quick ideas.

Metty5's Top 50**

Metty5 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:27:33 -0000

Top 50 Prospects with NO MLB experience. I figured I'd get into the action.

I like this better because it gets names flowing back and forth. Having Matt Welters, McCutchen, and F-Mart a top a list has been the same for several years. Not that I believe these players aren’t prospects, I’m just looking for fresh names to generate conversation.

I obviously missed people. But let me know what you think and I'll try and make adjustments and answer questions. I hope the blurbs help with the rationale. I mostly use Fangraphs, FI, MiLB.com, and Splits.

Also, I want to apologize for any grammar/spelling//anything that looks weird. I did this pretty quickly.

If anyone wants more detailed conversation you can reach me at J.D.Sussman@gmail.com.

Jason Heyward – This kills me as a Mets fan, but this guy is the complete package. Offensively he will hit for more power as he gets older (which is scary), and I haven’t heard a single negative thing about his defense. Only positive.
Jesus Montero – No, he isn’t a catcher. But he has the best bat in the minors. He is tearing up AA at 19.
Jarrod Parker – Great fastball and two other plus offerings make him my top pitcher. The walks have been up in AA, but he should settle those back down.
Madison Bumgarner – Like parker, the strikes outs are down, and the walks are up in AA. He does have some regressing to do with his great strand rate and career HR/9 rate. I do worry about his secondary offering, but all reports are that it has improved.
Chris Tillman – In my opinion, he is a larger version of Parker with 3 plus offerings. Born in the same year as Bumgarner and Parker, he is already in AAA. His walk rate is down and he is still striking out over a better an inning.
Justin Smoak – Smoak is probably the most polished player in the minor leagues, he is a great hitter and fielder. The Rangers were very lucky he dropped to them in the draft. He is already in AAA after dominating AA walking more times than he struck out (39 to 35).
Carlos Santana – As you can see in the MLB a good hitting back stop is tough to come by. Santana has great athleticism, and will be a good MLB back stop. Clearly, he can crush the ball as well. He has huge power, and very underrated plate discipline (His BB:SO is 58:42).
Mat Latos – Latos has really came into his own this season posting great numbers in both A and AA. His FIP stands at 2.06 in AA and while his HR rate will certainly change that once a few go out of the park, he has been dominate. There are some injury concerns, but no one will complain about a 4.33 K/BB ratio.
Brian Matusz – Like Latos, Matusz has been dominating this year. His walk rate is slightly higher than I expected for him based on the reports I heard. However they aren’t anything to worry about, just higher than expected. Also higher than expect is his strikeout rate. Matusz has stuck out an impressive 96 batters in 85 IP. With great control and several plus pitches Matsuz could make an impact next season.
Buster Posey – I’ve heard good things about his defense behind the plate, but I’m honestly not sure I’ve heard enough to say anything on way or another about it. His bat is another story. He has raked this season posting a 425 wOBA in A+ ball. I’m excited to see what he’ll do at the next level.
Mike Stanton – Although he has hit a rough patch in AA, one can’t forget the 430 wOBA he put up in 750 PA before reaching AA (starting last season). It has only been 100 AB in AA, so it isn’t concern yet.
Pedro Alvarez – Yes, thus far he has been disappointing, but his huge potential is still there, and I have faith he will figure things out. He needs to cut down the strike outs. Even scarier than the SO rate is the LD rate. I don’t know if that will regress to the mean, or mean his demise, but 8% at Lynchburg is awful. With that said, his power is still at the top of the minor league food chain.
Jhoulys Chacin – I love the way the Rockies are challenging him while at the same time letting him get comfortable at each level. I’m hoping they leave him in AA all year. While he doesn’t miss bats at the elite level, he isn’t a slouch. He’ll get groundballs and miss bats enough to make him a very solid number two starter in Colorado that is a difficult task.
Logan Morrison – Although he missed a lot of time early in the year, he is doing fantastic at AA hitting 5 HR in just under 100 AB and walking more than he is SO. He seems to have great bat control and has a 400 wOBA despite a lowish (but not too low) BABIP. To me, he is a very safe bet to be a successful hitter at the major league level.
Chris Carter – You’ll notice a slew (3) 1B prospects in the next several spots. I wrote about Carter briefly the other day. While the SO are a concern, his power is real.
Lars Anderson – He has had his fair share of struggles in AA, but is still very young (and a HUGE 6-5). He’ll put it together, but I’d like to see his walk rate and ISO creep back up.
Josh Vitters – His walk rate is non-existent, but his pedigree and 50 point jump in SO (15 HR this season) make him a great prospect. From what I hear, staying at 3B isn’t a problem. I like that his SO rate has dropped, but he needs to walk more, for now, I’ll chalk that up to lack of experience and youth.
Neftali Feliz – While his stock has dropped in the eyes of many, I never had him THAT high to begin with. Everyone on these lists are in the top 1% of players or something like that… Anyway, he still throws as hard as anyone, and the worst case scenario is that he ends up as a dominate relief pitcher. However, I have higher hopes.
Brett Lawrie - As a 2B Lawrie in a good spot, if he moves to the OF, he probably falls in the 35 range for me. He has good power, a nice ISO, and a very respectable BB rate. The position will determine his future, because ~~he'll need more power at a corner outfield spot.~~ He certainly doesn't need power per today's numbers. I'm not sure how "real" it is, and would like a larger sample size. If he continues to produce a 200 ISO from second base and maintains the rest of his numbers, he'll climb even higher. I do want more reports on his 2B defense, obviously without real minor league defensive data it is hard to make an accurate statement.
Jenrry Mejia – I see him a lot like people saw Feliz last year. Though, my understanding is that his changeup is a better offering than what Feliz is/was showing. He is only 19 and holding his own in AA and missing a ton of bats.
Kyle Drabek – He is about two years older than Mejia, but his numbers have been nasty in A+ ball. Striking out over 10 per 9 with a 1.82 FIP. Of course, that has to do with Drabek not allowing a single HR in 61.2 IP. His rates have dropped significantly in 20 less IP in AA, but I’d expect him to rebound has he gets more comfortable.
Michael Taylor – Talk about a breakout. Taylor, 22, is putting on a clinic in AA. His wOBA is 442, however is this really a breakout when he has been over 400 for the past 500 AB? He could be a superstar.
Brett Wallace – Sometimes it is hard to peg the young guys who are being challenged, but I am really confidence in Wallace’s bat. Where he winds up defensively is another story. If he stays at third he’ll be even higher up the list. I think his walk rate will bounce back over time as well.
Jake Arrieta – I like him a good deal, he misses a good chuck of bats, gets ground balls, and is consistent. ERA and FIPs of 2008: 2.87/3.39 2009: 2.59/3.08, 2.92/3.08. I think his K rate will increase in AAA as well.
Dominic Brown – Though he really needs to be challenged in AA, he has been great in A+ ball with a 410 wOBA. He has the tools and they seem to be turning into skills.
Tim Alderson – I’m a fan of him, though I don’t see his ceiling higher than a 3rd starter. I honestly believe his strange leg kick effects minor league hitters to a small degree. With that said, it is hard to argue with his command and minor league numbers.
Tyler Flowers – He is doing very well in AA, I didn’t realize how old he was though. I thought he was around 20, but he is 22 and a January birthday as well. There are still questions about his defense, but the bat seems to be for real. He needs to cut down the SO though.
Michael Saunders – How can’t one love what he is doing this season? I really like Canadian prospects because when they break out, they tend to explode and that is what Saunders ahs done this year.
Casey Kelly – I’m a believer, though I hope he gains some velocity on his fastball so he can be a true number 1. If he is sitting at 90 he’ll have to rely on his already great control and secondary stuff, which isn’t always easy to do. Given his youth and desire to play SS, I love the way BOS is handling him.
Dee Gordon – I’m a big believer in his bat and walk ability. The steals are pretty insane and given how raw he is, he really could break out even further.
Hector Rondon - He is doing really well in AA, has good rates, and very little regression from what I can see. I love that his BB have decreased from last year.
Brad Holt – It is exciting to see a few Mets prospects on a top 50 list for something other than hype, but Holt is very similar to some other high velocity SP. He has a high floor because he would probably be successful in an MLB pen today. His AA sample size is way too small to even make mention. But his other numbers are fantastic.
Martin Perez – It almost seems that you could have entire top 50 list filled with young Texas pitching, but Perez’s SO rate really stands out for someone born in the 90s (4/4/91). If he can get his walks down even slightly, I think he’ll be a top 10 pitcher when everyone a top this list graduates next year.
Desmond Jennings – Tools and sometimes hurt, Jennings has been outstanding this season. He could be a 7 skill player when he reaches the majors. His injury tendency is a concern though.
Yonder Alonso – His small sample size in AA is disappointing, but then again it is a SSS. His A+ ball numbers were expected. He needs to bring his game up in AA, and I think he will.
Matthew Moore – Has he walked a ton of people? Yes. Has he also struck out 13 batters per 9? Yes. Even with the high walk rate he has only allowed 44 hits this season in 70.2 IP. He also has some slight GB tendencies.
Jordan Lyles – Another filthy youngster, Lyles brings both stuff and control to the hill for the Astros. He might have been slightly over looked last year with an abnormal HR rate added to his season line in 2 A- starts.
Jason Knapp – All three of these guys have put up remarkable numbers, but you can’t mention the first two without mention Knapp too. This 6’5” righty also misses a ton of bats.
Nick Barnese –Barnese gets a ton of GB, but was gimpy to start the year. Sadly, this season he has a small sample size, just 28 IP (1.29 ERA, 19:6 SO: BB). But last season he was dominate striking out 84 in 66 IP.
Freedie Freeman - I like Freedie, but I have some concerns. First, his stats are very BA dependant and he has a very high BABIP. I'd like to see him gain a few percentage points in his walk rate and add at least 50 points to his ISOP. He is young, but without the pop he won't be a major leaguer.
Adrian Cardenas – Very consistent for a IF, though I believe it remains to be seen if he could play 2B at the MLB level. Most likely he’ll be at 3B with Weeks at 2B. I do believe that hurts is value some because he doesn’t have 3B power. His on base skills are great though. The power could be developed down the line.
Brandon Snyder – I was hoping that it would be Rowell that had the break out. But it was Snyder who increased his BB rate and his ISO significantly in AA this year. If he can cut down the walks and his power continues to develop he could certainly replace Huff next season.
Chris Heisey – The oldest guy on this list, Heisey broke out this year with a .457 wOBA in AA. Cutting down his SO rate had to help, and I’m sure those additional HRs didn’t hurt either.
Derek Norris – A bright light for the Nationals in terms of hitting, Norris has great pop and instincts at the plate, but it remains to be seen if he’ll stick behind it. Moving to 1B would really hurt his value. The Nationals aren’t going anywhere though, and can be leisurely with their efforts to move him off catcher.
Jemile Weeks – Weeks is electric and has shown more pop than I think anyone expected with 7 HR in his first 28 games. He does strike out a bit much for my liking, though maybe it is his size that makes me think lead-off hitter.
Wilmer Flores – While I didn’t really like the ARL take that the Mets had with F-Mart and him “holding his own” all those years in the minor leagues, I do like Flores a lot. The fact that be blasted 8 balls last season at age 16 is amazing to me. While he hasn’t hacked in the minor leagues, his ISO has been sliced in half from last year to this one.
Thomas Neal – Old for A+ ball, and I think he needs to jump to AA to justify this spot. Its hard to ignore the 13 HRs he has hit thus far though.
Nick Weglarz – I’ve never been high on him, but he has been very consistent. Can he stay in the OF? If he can, that’ll make him have solid value if he doesn’t butch the ball. He is a walk machine, who hits for very solid power.
Lonnie Chisenhall – The doubled SO rate stands out to me, but so does almost three times the amount of HRs. If he can stick at SS, I think he’ll skyrocket (if he keeps the SO down too).
Wade Davis – I used to love him, now I’m not so high on him because of the iffy SO rate when added to the iffy BB rate. He is a solid three.
Tim Beckham – I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt (but not Hosmer). The scariest part of his not so hot numbers is the high BABIP, SO rate, and low walk rates. On the surface his triple slash line of 283/338/420 look decent for a SS, but the wOBA of 337 is just too low for a number one overall pick. He needs to cut down the SO and take some bases.
Robbie Ross – Ross is a small lefty, but is missing bats at an alarming rate. His 15.05 K/9 is outstanding. But he also has the control, 1.77 BB/9 really stands out for someone his age. His strand rate is very high, but so his BABIP. I think his numbers will get better as his BABIP normalizes, and maybe with less base runners his strand rate too will normalize with less negative effect. He has also been a groundball machine (65%). If though it has only be 20 IP, I’d like to see him start the second half in A+ ball, skipping A.

DISCLOSURE: THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS ARE ON MY FANTASY TEAM, WHICH I HAVE DRAFTED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. IT IS A VERY VERY DEEP LEAGUE WITH HUNDREDS OF MINOR LEAGUERS ON EACH TEAM.

PARKER, TILLMAN, MORRISON, CARTER, KELLY, RONDON, BARNESE, ROSS. RECENTLY I'VE TRADED VILLALONA, ALDERSON, LATOS, CODY JOHNSON, GREG HALMAN, NOLAN REIMOLD.

I think my rationale backs up my opinions well. This isn't just another baseless list. I don't believe I have a bias towards my guys, but you can be the judge. If you would like to hear more from me (I have tons of time in the summer) let me know by posting something or rec'ing this.

Rip away.

~Metty

Mid Season Rookie of the Year Conversation

Metty5 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:57:40 -0000

Hey all,

Since we are around the mid-season point, I figured now would be a good time to talk Rookie of the Year. While there haven't been huge performances to date, a few rookies do stand out. I'm only going to mention people with over 100 AB.

Colby Rasmus - Rasmus has more AB than any other rookie and has a triple slash line of 270/313/455. The walks really aren't there yet, but the power has been nice. According to UZR, Rasmus has been great this season being +10 in the OF.

Andrew McCutchen - Just over 100 AB at this point, but he has impressed. Only one homerun to date, but 5 triples. Obviously, we'll need a larger sample size.

Chris Coghlan - He has played 2B in the minors, but is now in the OF blocked by Uggla. His 262/360/360 line isn't great, but he has shown some pop in the minors. With the Marlins in the chase, he'll need to step it up a little.

Tommy Hanson - He has really battled this year getting to 4-0, his SO are down in the MLB and his walks are way up, but his ERA is a shiny 2.48. His LOB% is an insanely high 87.6% so his ERA should rise. If he can keep the hits down, as he has and stop walking batters he could put together a nice year.

Kenshin Kawakami - Another Braves pitcher. He was signed out of Japan and is 34. 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA, he has missed a good amount of bats, but the walks are a little high. His numbers look solid, but one has to wonder if he'll start to let up a few more HR.

Jordan Zimmermann - Zimmermann has great SO numbers, and not an awful amount of walks (8.92 K/9, 2.50 BB/9).. His ERA is high for a Rookie of the Year candidate (4.52) but that has to be a product of the Nationals league worst defense to some degree. His FIP stands more than a full run lower than his ERA at 3.38. With improved defense behind him, and some better luck, Zimmermann could pull away from this pack. That could be a nice story for the Nats (whom rarely have nice stories). He'll have to win more games, because one has to assume that Hanson will improve.

AL -

Nolan Reimold - One of two AL players with over 100 AB (his teammate Weiters is at 85 with an OPS of 685) he has crushed the ball thus far. His OPS is 883, the highest of any rookie by a large margin. His 9 HR also lead all rookies, and he has a nice K/BB ratio 24/17. His wOBA is 383. However, his defense hasn't been great UZR has him at -11 thus far in the OF.

Elvis Andrus - One can't say the same about Andrus's defense. Anchoring SS during a revival of the Ranger's defense. UZR has him at +5.3. While he hasn't shown much with the bat, he has exceeded my expectations by a large margin. 269/330/380 is his current line, but one can't over look his 15 SB with just 1 CS.

Ricky Romero - He has been pretty filthy lately. His season stats are looing great at this point, 2.85 ERA with 61 SO in 72.2 IP. However, like Hanson his strand rate is awfully high at 86.9% and his FIP shows some regression in his ERA. The 6-3 record will help him with voters though, especially if he can duplicate that record in the 2nd half.

Brad Bergesen - Kind of a dark horse here, but his ERA is a nice 3.53. I don't this he has the stuff though moving forward. His SO are extremely low, and his BABAIP is quite low as well.

Rick Porcello - The 20 year old top prospect has throwing 83 innings already this season with a 3.80 ERA. His GB rate has been great, but he really needs to miss more bats (4.77 K/9). He has been hurt by the long ball, and those numbers could regress. Though, when a pitcher is only has a 20% FB rate, I guess he'll have a few more go out. His 8 wins put him in great position though.

Andrew Bailey - Bailey has sliced his way through the AL this season dominating batters in the late innings. His SO rate is phenominal (10.84) and while his walks are high, they aren't awful (3.61 BB/9) especially when he isn't allowing many hits. Baily does have some regression coming to his stats though. His BABIP (254) LOB% (84.5%) and HR rate 5.8% per FB all could bring his ERA (2.09) down.

(AL Notables - Matt Weiters and Gordon Beckham)

Conclusion:

I'm going to take Zimmermann and Porcello with the runners up being Rasmus (followed by Hanson) and Gordon Beckham (followed by Nolan Reimold). I think the addition of Nyger Morgan will help Nationals pitchers immensly. Porcello's also a great story with pedigree. Pitching this well at his age 20 season is going to be tough to beat. He'll need those other guys to regress some though.

Sorry if you think I missed someone.

RIP Mrs. Schoeneweis

Metty5 — Wed, 20 May 2009 23:11:13 -0000

FOUNTAIN HILLS, Ariz. (AP) -- The wife of Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Scott Schoeneweis has been found dead at her home.

The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office says deputies found the body of 39-year-old Gabrielle Dawn Schoeneweis on the floor of the master bedroom in the family's suburban home shortly after noon Wednesday.

Authorities say her 14-year-old daughter called the sheriff's office to report that she had found her mother lying there and unresponsive.

The sheriff's department says the cause of death hasn't been determined.

I was looking for a good picture of Scott and the Family and couldn't find anything. ~~I found one picture of his wife, but will only post the link because it would be in poor taste to make this post be entirely about her looks.~~ I know its over the internet, but I'm trying to be sincere.

Scott took his lumps in Queens, but no one deserves this. God bless him and his family during these tough times.