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It's been quite a while since Anderson Silva fought a wrestler.  As Sonnen took Silva down again and again with shots he did not bother to set up, I was not surprised in the least.  Anderson Silva has never been difficult to take down.  It's been a long time since we've seen him on his back because he's been fighting a steady diet of men without wrestling credentials, but wrestlers have never had a hard time finding Anderson Silva in the cage.

Perhaps the most stunning thing about tonight's main event was Anderson's complete inability to defend himself from guard for the better part of four and a half rounds.  His primary strategy was to try to stall for a standup, and when that didn't work, he had no answers...until round 5, when he pulled off one of the greatest comeback wins in UFC history.

There's a false belief that spending hours training a skill will necessarily make someone proficient in that skill.  The truth is that no amount of training would have prepared Anderson Silva to deal with Chael Sonnen's wrestling.  He's not a very good wrestler, and it's far too late for him to get up to speed.  

I've long been in the minority amongst MMA writers and fans in my belief that Georges St. Pierre would defeat Anderson Silva.  Tonight further cemented what I already believed: GSP would take Anderson Silva down at will, and unlike Chael Sonnen, he has the top game to take a dominating decision (at worst).

I believe Anderson will defeat Chael Sonnen in a rematch the same way he won tonight: by submission.  No amount of submission defense training over the next few months will plug the holes in Sonnen's jiu-jitsu game, and in a 5 round fight the odds are really stacked against him.  

If Anderson Silva wins a rematch against Chael Sonnen and Georges St. Pierre defeats Josh Koscheck, it's time to make that fight happen.  The idea that it would be a blowout was always patently absurd, but after tonight it's laughable.  It would be a competitive fight between the best fighters in the world, which is exactly the kind of fight the UFC should be promoting.

We are hours away from Anderson Silva's most anticipated middleweight title defense since his fight with Dan Henderson in March of 2008.  Since that fight, Silva has looked spectacular in two appearances at light heavyweight, and less than inspiring in three fights at middleweight.  

Early in his UFC career, Anderson Silva's one clear weakness was his defensive wrestling.  He was taken down by Travis Lutter, Nate Marquardt, and Rich Franklin with ugly takedown attempts, and was also taken down by Dan Henderson.  Of course, taking him down was not enough.  None of the aforementioned challengers had the top game to truly put Silva in danger, and Silva stopped all of them inside of two rounds.

If Chael Sonnen has a chance at UFC 117, that chance hinges on the fact that Anderson Silva has not competed against a wrestler with legitimate wrestling credentials since he defeated Dan Henderson at UFC 82.  Since March of 2008, Anderson Silva has fought men who either had no desire to take him down or no ability to do so. Chael Sonnen wants to take him down, and certainly has the ability to do it.  

Dan Henderson is the best wrestler Silva has ever competed against, and while Henderson has incredible wrestling credentials, few would argue that his MMA wrestling is as effective as Chael Sonnen's.  Chael's double leg covers a lot of distance in a short period of time, which allows him to take opponents down without first having to put himself in danger by closing the distance, unlike Dan Henderson.  

Make no mistake about it: Chael Sonnen is the best offensive wrestler Anderson Silva has ever fought.  Further, Silva fans should be concerned that Silva's main wrestling training partner for this fight, Mark Munoz, was completely unable to take down a fighter that Chael Sonnen took down with ease.

But is a great double leg enough to beat the best fighter on the planet? Probably not.  Taking Silva down won't do the trick on its own; he is quite capable off of his back, and very good at minimizing damage while he waits for an opportunity to get back to his feet.  This is the real reason a GSP fight is so intriguing: St. Pierre is perhaps the only fighter alive who possesses both the ability take Silva down and the ability to cut through his guard and threaten him offensively from top position.  Chael Sonnen will have to do his work from guard, and it's hard to see him succeeding given his long history of poor submission defense.

Chael Sonnen's best hope at winning is to drag this fight into the championship rounds by securing takedowns and playing a conservative game from top position.  Instead of posturing up and putting himself at risk for submissions, he should stay close to Silva while landing body shots and close range elbows.  If the ref stands them up, rinse and repeat.  If he can make it to round 3 and take one of the first two rounds, his odds of winning skyrocket.  We've seen Silva in rounds 4 and 5, and he is certainly not the killer in those rounds that he is in rounds 1 and 2.

While it's true that a five round fight favors the man most capable of finishing, it's also true that there are very few instances in UFC history in which a striker comes back to score a knockout after being put on his back for multiple rounds.  Intense wrestling and grappling is physically exhausting, and by rounds 4 and 5 a knockout finish becomes very unlikely after multiple rounds of wrestling.

Ultimately, getting past round 2 with Anderson Silva is easier said than done.  Especially when he's angry.  The most likely outcome of this fight is a submission win for Anderson Silva, and the second most likely outcome is a KO win for Anderson Silva.  However, of all the men Anderson Silva has fought in the UFC, Chael has the greatest chance of scoring a decision victory.  That chance is still very low, but it's real.

This morning, Bloody Elbow asked Strikeforce President Scott Coker for his thoughts on the UFC running an event in Northern California, which is traditionally Strikeforce's backyard.  Scott Coker released the following statement exclusively to Bloody Elbow:

This weekend, UFC is headed to Oakland, California, and I want to welcome them to the area.  

Since 2006, when Strikeforce put on the first regulated event in California history and broke the standing record for largest audience at an MMA event in the U.S., we have helped build a huge fan-base in the state.  By holding great live events with high-profile matchups featuring Fedor, Cris Cyborg, Frank Shamrock, Nick Diaz, Gina Carano and more, we've exposed thousands of new fans in California to this great sport.

Our Bay Area MMA fans have come to expect dramatic, thrilling live fights, and I'm sure they won't be disappointed with the card the UFC has put together for Oakland this weekend.

Whether it's put on by STRIKEFORCE or another promotion, any time fans get access to live MMA action in the state, it's a win for the sport.  Over the least few years, we've seen huge growth in the MMA fan-base, and we're excited to see any events that will continue that growth.  This is an amazing sport that requires discipline, focus, endurance and incredible skill, and it's great to see so many new fans embrace it.

On behalf of STRIKEFORCE and our Bay Area fans, we welcome the UFC and the talented fighters on this Saturday's Card to Northern California.

Just over a week or so ago, Dana White was doing a PR appearance at a Dave and Buster's in San Diego to promote UFC on Versus 2.  In the midst of shaking hands and talking to fans, one fan approached Dana and told him that in his excitement to meet Dana, he got a $300 speeding ticket.  Upon hearing the news, Dana White opened his wallet and gave the fan $300 to pay off his ticket.

This is the kind of PR that money just can't buy.  No multi-million dollar ad campaign on radio or television could instill the kind of brand loyalty in the UFC that Dana created in this interaction.  Not only is that one fan a fan for life, so are all the fans that saw it happen, including the hundreds of thousands that saw it on Youtube.  While other executives hire advertising firms and spend six figures just to turn around their image, Dana achieves more on a regular basis just by directly engaging his consumers.

Among his executive peers, Dana White is no pariah.  If anything, his fellow executives admire what he's done, as evidenced by his rockstar-level reception at a CEO summit in Seattle.  He facilitated a miraculous turnaround of a dead industry, and simultaneously made himself more popular than the workers on the ground--in this case, the fighters.

In a lot of ways, Dana White is the quintessential new age CEO.  He directly engages his customers, channels their emotions, and turns those emotions into revenue by making customers feel like UFC shareholders.  Instead of shaking their heads in shame when Dana goes off on swearing tangents at press conferences, media members should try to grasp what he's doing and why he's doing it.

When Dana White went nuts after UFC 112, he wasn't just venting for himself.  He was expressing the feelings of hundreds of thousands of angry people that were considering avoiding future UFC purchases after feeling ripped off. In the process of venting, Dana made sure that angry fans would hold the disgraceful effort against Anderson Silva, not against the UFC.  Crisis averted.

No man is without flaws, and that brings us to the story about Dana's gambling habit.  Personally, I could not possibly care less about what people do with the money they've earned on their own time.  For all I care, Dana can pile his money up and burn it in an attempt to set the world record for largest pile of money ever burnt.  That being said, allowing a reporter to observe it was a crass PR mistake that the UFC should seek to avoid in the future.  It's one thing for Dana to give big tips and show off his hard-earned wealth, it's another to publicly brag that you can only relax by gambling amounts of money away in one night that most fighters will not earn in their entire career.

There are those in the industry that believe that Dana's attitude will eventually come back to bite him.  They think it's only a matter of time before Lorenzo pushes Dana out and hires someone more polished to be the face of the UFC.  People with this view are engaging in delusional wishful thinking, because Dana White is not going anywhere, and he's not going to change.  For better or for worse, the tone of media coverage is moving towards White's style, not away from it, and I suspect that in 20 years we'll be listening to other sports executives that sound a lot like the Dana White of today.

This post kind of got buried in the avalanche of Fedor coverage so I wanted to give it a little more exposure. Kid Nate.

At the end of 2009, the MMA championship scene looked a bit...dull.  The sport had such dominant champions in each major weight class that it seemed like nobody could challenge them.  Eight months later, every single allegedly untouchable champion has either disappointed in victory or lost.

Georges St. Pierre dominated Dan Hardy for 25 minutes, and came very close to submitting him twice.  But he did not finish an underdog that everyone expected him to finish, and he admitted to being disappointed in his performance.  Of all the champions, he had the best performance so far in 2010.

Anderson Silva came back from the most impressive win of his career by stinking up the joint against Demian Maia.  He dominated the early rounds of the fight, but gassed out as a result of his ludicrous antics and looked poor in the final 2 rounds of his fight.  He won easily, but enraged the entire MMA community.  Anyone disappointed with St. Pierre's performance forgot about it quickly after UFC 112.

On the same night Anderson Silva embarrassed the organization in front of its new investors, BJ Penn looked like he wanted to be anywhere besides the octagon.  I actually scored the fight for Penn, but even the most ardent critic of the judges wouldn't argue that Penn looked good in this fight.  When things weren't working he showed no ability to change his gameplan on the fly, he let Edgar get off first all night, and reacted with no urgency at all when it appeared his title was in jeopardy. 

Lyoto Machida was once heralded as unbeatable.  After demolishing Rashad Evans, some fans even put him above Georges St. Pierre in pound for pound rankings.  In May, Shogun Rua stormed through him in a matter of minutes.  Takedowns provided Machida with slight reprieves from Shogun's onslaught, but it was clear about 45 seconds in that Machida was in a lot of trouble.  The "Machida Era" is right up there with "Dow 36,000" in terms of bold predictions gone awry.

And finally, we get to Fedor.  Fedor has been a source of stability in the sport for a very long time.  In a sport where a guy like Chuck Liddell goes from being the king of the mountain to a "shot fighter" in a matter of 16 months, there was always Fedor.  Fedor's loss to Werdum was no fluke--he almost got caught on the way down in an armbar, and then got caught in a triangle seconds later.  If not the triangle, he was bound to get submitted if this fight hit the ground. 

Fedor is the greatest heavyweight the sport has ever seen, but with this loss, he probably relinquishes his spot as the greatest fighter the sport has ever seen to Georges St. Pierre or Anderson Silva.  Fedor's streak resulted from a combination of spectacular wins with fights against "contenders" like Hong Man Choi, Mark Coleman, and Gary Goodridge.  In a sport with so many ways to lose, it's virtually impossible for anyone to fight a steady diet of top 5 contenders every couple months for a period of years without eventually losing.

If there's a lesson to be taken from all this, it's that fans should be more skeptical before they put fighters up on a pedestal.  It's easy to get caught up in the belief that some guys are a level above the pack, but often times the pack is nipping at the heels of the champion. 

MMA is a fickle, unpredictable sport.  2007 was a year of incredible instability--Pride collapsed, Randy Couture beat Tim Sylvia, Georges St. Pierre lost to Matt Serra, Chuck Liddell was dethroned, and Mirko CroCop fell apart before our eyes.  2008 and 2009 were years of relative stability, with the exception of Brock Lesnar's meteoric rise to the top.  Some people thought they might finally have a handle on MMA, but 2010 is looking like the year the sport's unpredictability struck back.

Rich Franklin has lost to four men in his career: Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, Vitor Belfort, and Dan Henderson.  The loss to Dan Henderson, in my view, was one of the worst decisions of 2009, but we'll leave that for another day.  Rich Franklin is intelligent, well-spoken, highly skilled, and exactly the type of spokesman that MMA's diehard fans should respect.  

So why don't they?  Because he's the UFC's "company man."

Distaste for Franklin can be traced back to the UFC's firing of Matt Lindland.  For whatever reason, a number of fans latched onto the idea that the UFC terminated Lindland to protect Franklin.  The charge is absurd, but for whatever reason a lot of fans subconsciously blamed Franklin.  Fans who dislike Dana and the UFC see Rich as some sort of extension of the company, and refuse to give him the respect he deserves.

All week I read that the real question going into UFC 115 was whether Rich Franklin could avoid Chuck's right hand for 15 minutes, as if he would melt upon impact.  There's a meme that goes around that Rich Franklin can be "broken."  Lurking behind that assertion is the idea that he does not have a strong will to fight.  That he's some pretty boy, hoisted to a position of prominence by sneaky promoters trying to make a quick buck.  If you just press him, he'll fold.  

Recent history strongly suggests otherwise.

Very few fighters would fight through a broken hand all the way to the end of a five round fight.  For most fighters, that one instance of courage would be enough to carry a career.  But for Franklin, fighting through pain is part of the gig.  Against Yushin Okami, he found himself in a deep kimura that would have elicited a submission from a majority of top middleweights.  Instead of quitting, he gritted through the pain and kept on fighting.  When Franklin fought Travis Lutter, he found himself in an armbar that would have elicited a tap out from most of his peers.  He grimaced in pain, but found a way out.

Rich took a huge shot from Dan Henderson in the first round.  It was the kind of right hand that sends guys to the floor upon impact.  He recovered and came back to put on a thrilling comeback performance, only to lose a decision that should have been his.  He took big shots from Wanderlei Silva in the second round of their fight, weathered the storm, and kept on fighting.  And last night, after breaking his left arm, he stayed in the pocket with Liddell and found a way to win, despite eating a whole bunch of those killer right hands that people said would end his night.

Rich Franklin deserves the respect of MMA's hardcore fans.  Hopefully he gets it while he's still fighting.

Note:  For those wondering (all 2 of you), I'm absent from writing at the moment while I study to take the California Bar Exam.  I'd complain about the process, but I know Rich Franklin would fight through it and pass, so I'll try to do the same.

MMA Live made its ESPN 2 debut on Saturday night, and for the most part I thought the shows were very good. The association of MMA with ESPN graphics is very beneficial to the sport. ESPN simply lends a certain legitimacy to MMA.

I found the post-show better than the pre-show. We typically only hear from fans and writers immediately after fights, and it was nice to hear Kenny Florian and Rashad Evans add their perspective on the action in the Octagon.
Kenny Florian has really turned into an excellent analyst for ESPN. When he started he was a talented public speaker with a rare ability (among fighters) to articulate his points effectively, but he was a little rough around the edges. He’s improved ten-fold since the beginning of his stint, and now comfortably makes concise and valuable points without worrying about going too far by insulting his fellow fighters.

Jon Anik has always been very good, but as a viewer it is easy to tell that he’s become more comfortable in his job over time. Every episode he exudes a little more personality on-air, but still hits the right balance as the lead anchor. The rapport between Anik and Florian may not be Olbermann-Patrick, but it’s pretty good.

This brings us to Franklin Mcneil. Like everyone who writes about him, I will preface this by saying I’m sure he’s a nice guy, and I have nothing against him. That being said, he needs to be replaced as soon as possible. He openly roots for his favorites, has worse sources than MMA Bay, and simply does not know the sport well enough to be an anchor on the most important show in the sport. It’s worth repeating that he complimented Junior Dos Santos’s ground game based on his submission win over Mirko CroCop, even though the submission was due to strikes.

Everyone makes mistakes, but certain mistakes, made on a regular basis, betray a fundamental lack of understanding about the sport. The argument that he adds quality reporting to the show simply doesn’t fly; his report on Shogun’s knee was clearly way off-base, and frankly without being 100% sure of it he should not have come forward with that kind of information the night of a major fight. I’ll be frank: I let out a huge sigh of relief when the pre-show came on and Rashad was sitting in the third seat rather than Franklin Mcneil.

The same can be said about Gareth Davies, who is now on the show for reasons simply beyond comprehension. I appreciate his efforts to support the sport in the UK, but on the totem pole of intelligent MMA analysts, well, he isn’t even on the list at all. I never give people grief over fight picks; god knows I’m not that good at picking fights. That being said, was anyone surprised when Davies picked Hardy over GSP, or Daley over Koscheck? Gareth Davies will probably pick Michael Bisping over Anderson Silva if they ever fight.

Who is the ideal third man? There are a lot of choices. The best pick would be Randy Couture, who steals the show whenever he is on MMA Live. He’s always been very good at play by play, and he’s a natural for a gig like this. His presence would lend authority to the show.

If not Randy, there are plenty of other analysts out there that could add something to the show. Ariel Helwani is a very good speaker with a deep knowledge of the sport. Luke Thomas of this website would be a great pick given his speaking ability and his knowledge of the sport. Dave Meltzer would be a great pick as well if they’re really looking for someone with an ability to add hard news to the broadcast.

Another great pick would be Joe Rogan. Joe is a fantastic MMA analyst outside of his role as a play-by-play guy. His podcasts deal with all kinds of crazy issues, but when Joe speaks about MMA as a fan and analyst, he is one of the most insightful guys in the entire sport. His appearances on Josh Gross's show are fantastic, and he really was the only guy who really called Machida-Shogun 2 correctly.  Obviously Rogan cannot do pre-show specials due to his commentating job, but he would be a great regular host and post-show host.

Overall, the show has improved significantly since its inception, and I’m excited to see it on television. I think the post-show in particular could have a very strong future, especially if they can get the UFC to plug it on-air.

Why did Shogun have trouble with Mark Coleman just 9 months before going 25 minutes with Lyoto Machida?  It’s an interesting question that begs multiple viewings of his fight with Coleman.

Throughout the fight, Coleman has no problem taking Shogun down.  For all his skill, one of Shogun’s flaws is that he tends to let his opponents dictate where his fights take place.  By the end of the first round, Shogun was tired.  His kicks, knees, and punches had all slowed down to the point where he was landing at will but he wasn’t able to put Coleman away.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this fight was Shogun’s inability to submit Mark Coleman.  Coleman put himself in a lot of bad positions, and has no jiu-jitsu defense of note.  His main defense is his strength, and that was enough to stay out of submissions.

The Coleman that showed up for this fight was no different than the Coleman who fought Randy Couture in February of this year.  He kept his hands down, got hit at will, and moved straight back whenever he got hit.  Coleman’s wrestling kept him in the fight well into the third round, and he actually landed a number of punches throughout the fight.  It was never close, but it’s surprising how often Coleman was able to land, and how easily he was able to take Shogun down.

After his last 3 performances, most observers and fans think Shogun has solved his cardio issues.  That may be the case, but I remain unconvinced.  We see this kind of thing happen with BJ Penn all the time—after he gasses and the media slams him for his unwillingness to train, he’ll dominate two fights in a row without looking tired, and everyone will deem his cardio problems solved.  Then he gasses in a tough, gritty fight and everyone assumes he didn’t train hard enough.  The truth of the matter is that fighters tend not to gas when they control the pace of the fight, especially if the fight stays standing.

Shogun has had two extremely competitive fights featuring lots of grappling, clinch work, and time on the ground in the UFC.  He’s gassed in both of them.  I’m sure his injuries contributed, but I am not even close to being willing to assume that his cardio issues are resolved.  We’ll find out the truth about his conditioning when he’s forced to fight a tough wrestler.

That brings me back to the Coleman fight.  It’s convenient to dismiss it as an aberration, but it may portend a short title reign for Shogun if his opponents look to turn fights with him into grinding, slow affairs.  Yesterday a lot of people dismissed the idea of Shogun fighting Randy Couture, but Randy is a complete nightmare compared to the Coleman that Shogun struggled against 16 months ago.  Would Shogun he be able to handle someone like Rashad Evans if Evans decided to use his wrestling to control the fight?

For whatever reason, fans love to deem fighters unbeatable well before they’ve earned such a reputation.  Jose Aldo has been deemed untouchable with only one title defense, and BJ Penn had the same kind of reputation despite a demonstrated recent history of inconsistent performances.  After UFC 98, the discussion about Lyoto Machida was such that you’d have thought there was no reason to even have him defend his title.  He was supposedly going to dominate for years, and people were already talking about him fighting Fedor Emelianenko or Brock Lesnar.

For better or for worse, Anderson Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, and Georges St. Pierre are the exception, not the norm.  Shogun is a dynamic, excellent fighter, but I’d be surprised if we’re in for any sort of extended era.  People are already calling for a super fight with Anderson Silva.  Personally, I’d like to see him beat a good light heavyweight wrestler before we’re ready to crown him as a top pound for pound fighter.

The rumors about Shogun's injury were incorrect, but he was not 100% for tonight's fight against Lyoto Machida.  Shogun came down with Apendicitis a few months before the fight, and had to undergo major surgery.  The procedure was kept under wraps, but Shogun confirmed it tonight on MMA Live.

According to UFC sources, the UFC was prepared for the worst case scenario.  It was rumored earlier this week that the company had Randy Couture ready to step in to fight Lyoto Machida incase Shogun could not fight.

MMA Live is currently doing a live pre-fight preview show on ESPN 2 for the first time.  Franklin Mcneil checked in to analyze a few fights, and then broke the news that he's learned that Shogun's left knee is less than 100%, and that it affected his training camp.  It's hard to know how much to put into a report like this, but it's something to look for in tonight's main event.

[UPDATE]:  Dave Meltzer is reporting that Dana White says this is not true, and Shogun confirmed his knee is 100%.

In September 2007, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua made his much-anticipated UFC debut against Forrest Griffin.  In 2007, the big debate among MMA fans was not over who the best pound for pound fighter in the world was.  Rather, it was over which stable of fighters was better: Pride fighters or UFC fighters? 

Heading into UFC 76, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua was a consensus top 3 Light Heavyweight.  Many experts considered him the top 205 pound fighter in the world given his dominant wins over Ricardo Arona, Alistair Overeem, and Rampage Jackson.  He also participated in and won the fight of the year against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in 2006.  Most expected Shogun to walk right through Griffin, who had been knocked out by Keith Jardine just 9 months earlier.

At the time, despite the consensus that Shogun would win, many fans had lingering doubts about Shogun.  Mirko CroCop had recently been destroyed by Gabriel Gonzaga, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira came dangerously close to the same fate against Heath Herring.  Was the long-held notion that Pride had the superior fighters a myth?  This fight would tell the story, supposedly.

It was apparent as the fight started that this was not the Shogun fans had come to love in Pride.  He was flat footed, lethargic, and unable to handle Griffin's size.  His punches had nothing behind them.  Shogun kept it close for two rounds, but succumbed to Griffin's pace in the third and suffered a devastating and humiliating loss.  The win launched Griffin to another level of stardom, and supposedly put the nail in Pride's coffin.  Ringside reports even suggested that UFC officials were ecstatic that "their guy" beat Shogun.

Shogun took scorn from all directions after the fight.  UFC loyalists mocked the idea that he was the top fighter in the world.  Pride fans blamed him for embarrassing them.  Stories of his knee injuries only brought on further mockery.  Shogun underwent surgery, and was set to face Chuck Liddell at UFC 85.  In the midst of his preparation, Shogun blew out his knee again, and underwent a second surgery.  When Shogun finally returned to face Mark Coleman, he looked even worse than he did against Forrest.  He gassed after one round, and actually found himself in very compromising positions on the ground. 

Most experts wrote Shogun off after his fight with Mark Coleman.  I fully admit that I was one of them.  I couldn't explain what happened to Shogun; I resigned myself to believing that his excellence in Pride must have been a result of the lack of drug testing.  I didn't buy into the injury story.

UFC 104 was Shogun's true UFC coming out party.  He shocked the world by taking the fight to Machida, breaking his ribs and decimating his legs.  If the measure is damage, the fight was not close.

At UFC 113, Shogun has the chance to complete his long journey to the UFC title and achieve a level of personal redemption that most fighters only dream of.  One can only imagine the mental anguish he must have endured following his loss and throughout his endless recovery period.  This Saturday night, he can put it all behind him and achieve the level of success most experts predicted he would have in 2007.

"I think one really important thing we need is monitors...there are certain positions the judges are in where they can't see what's going on.  It happens all the time with us too, where a camera man will be in front of me or a referee will be in front of me, and I can't see what's happening, so I have to look at the monitors, and if I didn't have those monitors and I had to judge the fight just based on what I saw, you know, there's going to be some stuff I miss.

When I brought that up to Keith Kizer, he said 'well thats why there's 3 judges,' which I thought was one of the most retarded answers I've ever heard in my life.  That's why there's 3 judges, so one guy can fuck it up and the other 2 can get it right?  That doesn't even make any sense.  Like, how about giving them some monitors.  Why not just give them monitors?  Give them monitors like we have monitors.

We have a huge problem with the boxing people...people with no martial arts experience or people with no grappling experience.  There are some people who have never been kicked in the legs going around saying stupid things like "leg kicks don't win fights," you know, or "leg kicks don't stop fights" and these guys are actually judges for MMA events, and that's a ridiculous statement, and this is coming from someone who is a professional judge who has judged some huge events, gigantic championship fights.

There are a lot of really intelligent people who are mixed martial arts fans who would love those jobs and would do a much better job at it.  We have these people who are grandfathered in...they've been involved in boxing, others have been involved with Karate...it's difficult to get rid of them...They're like government jobs.  You have to really screw up or be involved with a scandal [to get fired]."

Joe Rogan, speaking with Josh Gross about judging incompetence in MMA.

I think Rogan's point about monitors is unassailable.  In a fight like Penn/Edgar, you had a series of exchanges where Edgar threw a whole lot of punches but rarely landed while Penn effectively countered for the first three rounds.  If the judges were behind Penn, it would be very hard to tell exactly what landed in those exchanges.  They should have monitors, it's pure arrogance to believe that the in-person experience can somehow give you a better perspective than HD monitors.  Kizer's explanation would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

Rogan also revealed that it looks like Douglas Crosby is done judging fights, at least for the time being, as a result of his antics on the Underground forums.

Early patterns indicate a strong showing for Aldo vs. Faber on PPV.  Say what you will about Dana White, the man knows how to promote and has the infrastructure to do it well.  I think the key lesson coming out of this show is that the UFC's fans are willing to pay to see smaller fighters.  That being proven, it's time to fold the Bantamweight and Featherweight Divisions into the UFC.

There are a whole number of reasons why, many of which have been articulated over and over again, so I won't rehash them here.  Simply put, the UFC should be the home of elite fighters at all major weight classes.  I believe Featherweight and Bantamweight belong among the major weight classes, and as such they should be featured in the top organization.  That being said, a pure merger doesn't make sense.  It creates conflicts with Comcast, puts the WEC's employees out of work, and puts too big of a promotional burden on the UFC without the relief of a secondary organization.

It's one thing to insist upon a merger, but most people fail to describe a plan that makes sense.  In this piece I'll set forth a plan that will attempt to meet the following goals:

--Improve the current UFC product by replacing middling bigger fighters with elite smaller fighters.

--Enable stars at Bantamweight and Featherweight to earn a living.

--Enable fans and athletes to determine the true top fighters at Bantamweight and Featherweight.

--Introduce UFC fans to the personalities of the smaller fighters in the WEC.

--Allow WEC employees to keep their jobs.

--Keep Versus and Comcast happy.

The plan I propose is fairly simple.  Generally speaking, it involves folding the Featherweight and Bantamweight divisions into the UFC while continuing to use the WEC as a developmental league.  There's no reason a company like Bellator should be grabbing prospects like Ben Askren while the UFC can't even find proper prospects for its reality show.  I'd suggest setting a rule where fighters with less than a certain number of professional fights must cut their teeth in the WEC before joining the UFC.  These shows would be on Versus.  Of course, there are occasional big draws and incredible prospects that belong in the UFC right away, so they could have a mechanism for waiving the rule.  This is the fight game after all, there is room for exceptions.

Folding in two new divisions into the UFC will be no easy task.  Fans care about fighters they can relate to, and they need to get to know these fighters.  Just adding a bunch of fighters in won't do any good.  In order to make sure UFC fans have an attachment to these newcomers, I propose a special season of The Ultimate Fighter featuring the actual top fighters of the Featherweight and Bantamweight divisions, minus Urijah Faber, Miguel Torres, Jose Aldo, and Dominick Cruz.  The coaches for the season would be Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres, who would meet each other in a Bantamweight dream fight at the end of the season.  Meanwhile, the winners at 135 and 145 would get a shot at the respective champions a few months after the finale. From a practical perspective, you could even arrange for Aldo and Cruz to have title defenses against top contenders during the ongoing season to keep them active.

The above-described plan would accomplish a number of things.  It would introduce the fans to all the stars of the Bantamweight and Featherweight divisions, while simultaneously featuring the two strongest stars in the WEC to date.  You would get immediate contenders in both weight classes, a dream fight, a future contender at 135, and extensive fan recognition of the actual top stars in these weight classes.

There are small issues remaining, including loe pay for living in the house and whether these stars would actually be willing to go into the house for 6 weeks.  These are minor issues that the UFC can easily handle.

As far as the current WEC 155 division goes, I'd recommend taking the top fighters in the class and simply moving them into the current lightweight division.  Frankly, I don't expect a whole lot of these lightweights to do all that well in the UFC, but they deserve a chance.

The elephant in the room is Comcast, the cable giant that owns Versus and NBC.  The UFC is excited about their partnership with Comcast, and they have no desire to jeopardize it.  In order to get Comcast on board for something like this, they'd probably need to give Versus a few more UFC shows a year.  The UFC could either add 3-4 more "UFC on Versus" events or they could give Versus two major European UFC events per year (think UFC 105).

In the end, folding the Bantamweight and Featherweight divisions into the UFC while simultaneously keeping the WEC alive is the best option for everyone.  It gives Zuffa more title fights to headline UFC shows with, it allows smaller fighters to earn the money they deserve, it enables fighters to sort out who the truly elite fighters are at the smaller weight classes, it would allow most of the employees at the WEC to keep their jobs, and it could keep Comcast happy with a few concessions.

K-1 was offering me $187,500 per fight - five times what the UFC was offering - and I was still willing to stay with them for one-third of that amount. This was when the relationship took a turn for the worse, and my view of White changed drastically. From that point on, I knew when it came to money, we couldn't trust him to treat us right. Did I like him at the dinner table? Sure. But at the negotiating table? Not at all. The pressure to perform and safeguard other people's money had changed him, even though he was constantly bragging to anyone willing to listen about how 'big this thing was going to be.' Things between us would never be the same.

When it was finally official I was going to fight in Japan, White called me up and told me his true feelings. 'You motherfucker! You're fucking done! You'll never fight in the UFC again! You're finished. You're scorched earth, motherfucker. Scorched earth. Don't call me crying saying you want to come back because you're fucking done!' And on and on and on, like a true professional - even going so far as to tell me I would never see my face again in a UFC video, promotion, or anything else. He also planned on removing my fight with Hughes from the UFC 46 DVD so no one would even know who I was. 'It doesn't have to be this way,' I told him. 'You know it wouldn't take that much to make this work.' But he just kept yelling.

--BJ Penn, discussing Dana White's reaction to his decision to leave the UFC after defeating Matt Hughes at UFC 46.  This is from BJ Penn's new book.

While I haven't read the whole book, it's very likely that White's anger over Penn's book stemmed from this section.  The biggest surprise to me is that Penn would come forward with a story like this while he is still an active UFC star.  It's one thing to release a tell-all book after retirement, but one has to wonder what the motivation was to tell a story like this now.

As far as the veracity of the above story, I am strongly inclined to believe it is true.  I've heard from enough agents and fighters about breakdowns in communication with the UFC to know what happens when they think someone is trying to screw them over.

"It was hard to watch…I didn’t watch the whole thing, but I tried.  I saw the beginning and I saw the end.  I was having plenty of conversations during it, I’m in the same boat as the rest of the world.  Who cares?  Nobody cares about Anderson Silva."

"He talked about retiring and nobody cared.  He talked about going heavyweight and nobody cared.  Now he talks about going to 205, and nobody cares!  I did an autograph signing with Anderson Silva, there was a line around the building to get to my room.  You could have heard a rat piss on cotton in his room!  Nobody was in there.  Nobody cares about Anderson Silva, it’s the hardest sell in the world.  Nobody shows up to see him.  If BJ Penn wasn’t on that card that building’s empty Saturday night."

"I’ve stuck my finger in this guy’s chest for 3 and a half years and he’s fought everyone in the world that isn’t named Chael Sonnen. I can’t tell you what a nuisance he is. This isn’t like some exciting thing to get to fight him, it’s just truly an annoyance, and I’m looking forward to it being over with just so I can move on and be done with the jerk."

Chael Sonnen, speaking to Mauro Ranallo on the Fight Show about Anderson Silva..  Who knows how the fight will be, but the build to the fight will be tremendous.  Behind all the bravado, Sonnen has to know how dangerous this fight is, but if he finds a way to pull it off he could become the most popular fighter in the UFC.

Can Sonnen steal one of the first 3 rounds and then grind out 4 and 5?  That has to be the strategy.

When the negotiations for a "Superfight" between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. fell apart, MMA fans smirked and nodded.  The general reaction was something like this: "You see, this is exactly what is wrong with boxing.  They finally get a big fight that everyone wants to see, the fighters agree to all of the material issues in principle, and then it falls apart over some minor issue."  Dana White was among those that mocked the sport of boxing for failing to promote such a huge fight.

He who lives in a glass house should not throw stones.

Most fans and experts agree that Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre are the top two pound for pound fighters in the sport of mixed martial arts.  Over the last three years, both have amasssed resumes that nobody else in the sport can even approach.  Despite the fact that the UFC has never announced or promoted a fight between the two, both men are repeatedly forced to answer questions about when they will fight one another.  In the past week, the one issue supposedly preventing this fight was happening was resolved: Anderson Silva conceded on the issue of weight by repeatedly voicing his willingness to take on St. Pierre at 170 pounds.  St. Pierre stated he would take the fight at that weight.  

Here's the big difference between these two situations: Dana White has the power to make this fight happen.  Every major issue is now agreed upon.  All he has to do is sign off on the fight, put on a "UFC: Primetime" series and let the money roll in.  Fans will be so galvanized against Silva as a result of this charade that they'll pay in droves to see a fan favorite like St. Pierre try to end his streak.  Egos got in the way of Mayweather-Pacquiao; Dana White is currently all that is standing in the way of St. Pierre-Silva.

Even though a fight between Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre has not been announced, fans have loudly chanted for it all the way from Montreal to Abu Dhabi.  Let me restate this, so that the importance of this point is not lost: fans all the way in the Middle East were chanting for Georges St. Pierre vs. Anderson Silva.  We're often told that Brock Lesnar vs. Fedor Emelianenko is the biggest dream fight possible, and that a fight between the two would shatter all buyrate records.  Despite the supposed groundswell of support for such a fight, we've never heard either man's name chanted at the other during one of their fights, and this is in spite of a concerted effort to do such a thing at UFC 100.  We've heard it happen twice to Anderson Silva. 

Here's a thought: what if the supposed support for Fedor-Lesnar is just hardcore media support, and actual UFC fans have voiced their "dream fight" preference loud and clear?  The fans have made it clear again and again that they want to see Georges St. Pierre fight Anderson Silva.  They've made it clear at autograph signings, they've made it clear at Q and A's, and now they've made it clear during Anderson Silva's fights.  Is anybody listening?  

Zuffa brass ought to think about what brought the UFC to the dance.  A large part of it was creating the perception that the UFC responds to the fans, and delivers the fights they clamor for.  If Zuffa decides to "punish" Anderson Silva with a meaningless fight and put St. Pierre against someone like Paul Daley, then I will have no sympathy for the company when its top stars continue to fight down to the level of their competition.  After the disaster of a main event at UFC 112, Dana White promised to make it up to the fans.  I'd suggest doing it by giving them what they are clearly asking for.

Finally, I'd like to address a persistent (and ridiculous) argument against this fight.  Some people think St. Pierre will lose, so the fight ought not happen.  Newsflash: BJ Penn just lost to Frankie Edgar of all people.  Champions eventually lose one way or another, and it can either be in dramatic fashion in the context of a mega fight, or it can be in a dull fight that almost nobody remembers three days after it happened.  The fact that one of these dominant champions might lose is not an argument against doing this fight.  It's an argument in favor of continuing to book mismatches that result in pedestrian and disappointing performances.

I called for this fight shortly after UFC 100, and predicted that if we didn't get it we'd end up seeing a series of boring, uninspiring title fights from both men in 2010.  So far, it's way worse than I could have anticipated if I was asked to draw up a worst case scenario.  If the UFC really has the gall to book St. Pierre-Koscheck 2 and Silva-Belfort, they deserve the boring fights that are surely on their way.

Anderson Silva has defended his title three times since defeating Dan Henderson at UFC 82.  Each time, we've seen the same thing.  He dominates his opponents, but lets them hang on just so he can put on an extended show.  Each time this has happened, we go through the same charade after his fight.  Is he trying to send a message?  What message is he trying to send?  Why isn't he trying to finish?  Does he want more money?  Is he bored?

Here's a better question:  Who cares?

It strikes me as a colossal waste of time to try to figure out the reason the greatest fighter alive is throwing temper tantrums when he fights.  It really gives him too much credit to engage in this kind of guess work, and that's really what it is: guess work.  We have no valuable insight into what's going on with Anderson Silva, all we see is a carefully managed public face.  We get conflicting reports on everything related to the guy, ranging all the way from the veracity of his injury claims to salary negotiations.  He doesn't speak english, so the only quotes we get from him are short, translated answers to simple questions.  

Ultimately, the "why" question doesn't matter to me.  I don't care why Anderson Silva fought like a spoiled brat; I just don't want to see it again.  Last time Silva engaged in this kind of behavior, the UFC rewarded him with a huge fight against Forrest Griffin in the co-main event of a big card.  There's an argument out there that the UFC should force him to fight on free TV to deny him a PPV bonus.  While he certainly deserves that and worse, I think he'd put in another protest performance, and at the end of the day you end up punishing the fans.

The answer to the problem is simple.  In the past week, Anderson conceded on the issue of weight: he said he'd go down to 170 to fight St. Pierre.  According to Dave Meltzer, St. Pierre is up for the fight if Silva will come down.  This is a fight that people have wanted to see for a very, very long time.  Rather than trying to punish Silva and continuing to promote mismatches, Dana should simply go ahead and make this fight happen.  I don't know who will win, but I am sure that Silva will have to perform at his peak to beat St. Pierre at 170.  Clowning around will not be an option.

In Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre, the UFC has a unique opportunity.  These two have amassed (by far) the most impressive resumes in the sport over the past three years.  Both men are in their primes, and both are willing to fight.                 

Dana White is excellent at positioning himself as a man of the people.  When he loses it and starts calling a boring main event a disgrace, average fans feel like Dana is really on their side.  Jordan Breen put it well on his radio show last night: Dana makes fans feel like shareholders, and he creates a lot of good will by doing so.  Now he has a chance to put up or shut up: is the populist routine an act?  Or is he really going to give the fans what they want?

UFC 112 marked the second time fans have chanted "GSP" during an Anderson Silva fight.  Does anyone recall this kind of anticipation for any other superfight?  Fans didn't chant for BJ while St. Pierre fought Fitch, and they didn't chant for Fedor while Lesnar fought Mir.  At UFC 112, fans in Abu Dhabi chanted for this fight.  

Dana White says he's not interested in Anderson Silva.  Quite frankly, right after the fight, neither was I.  But I can assure you that there are a number of people interested in seeing him lose.  If the UFC puts on a show with another Anderson Silva mismatch on top, it will bomb.  But if they put him against someone that fans truly believe in, they will tune in en masse to see what happens.

At UFC 112, the unthinkable happened: BJ Penn lost to Frankie Edgar.  After a relatively uneventful five rounds, the judges came back with a unanimous verdict in Edgar's favor.  Say what you want about the decision, but BJ let a close fight go to the judges.  He looked like a broken and beaten man after the fight.

Does Frankie Edgar jump to number one for beating BJ Penn?  I'm sure some people will say yes.  Fight Matrix already has Edgar at number one.  I'm not a big rankings guy, but I think there is a strong case for ranking Shinya Aoki number one.  Edgar's win was not exactly dominant, and a lot of people think he should have lost the fight on the cards.  Aoki and Penn have been neck and neck for the top lightweight spot for a long time now, and Penn's loss should push Aoki to the front of the line.

If you accept that Aoki is the number one lightweight in the world now, that makes his title fight with Gilbert Melendez this weekend at Strikeforce all the more consequential.  It may be too late to change the way the fight is being hyped, but I think CBS should take advantage and start running promos about featuring Shinya Aoki, the number one lightweight in the world.  Sure, people will have issues with it, but now it's debatable and they can run something like that in good faith.

Gilbert Melendez has only 2 career losses, and he has a chance on CBS to get the biggest win of his career.  He's fought a lot of good fighters, but Aoki is the best fighter he's ever competed against, and certainly the highest ranked.  After losing his ranking and a lot of status with the MMA community following his losses to Ishida and Thomson, Melendez has a chance to vault himself straight to the top of the lightweight division with a win over Shinya Aoki.

The Strikeforce card may not have Fedor, but there's no denying that it's a strong card.  The three main events are all very interesting fights, and the lightweight title match just became that much more meaningful as a result of Penn's defeat.

I'll admit it: I like a little showmanship in my fighting.  When Silva started juking and jiving, I was laughing along at first.  Then I really wanted Maia to hit him.  And then it got...weird.

There's no defending what Anderson Silva did tonight, though I'm sure some will try.  For all the talk about St. Pierre not finishing, at least he tried to finish.  Anderson made a mockery of Maia, disrespected him for three rounds, and then disrespected the fans for the last two rounds.  Nobody's saying you have to finish, but it's completely reasonable for fans to expect their champions to try to finish.

In the post-fight, Anderson claimed Maia disrespected him as a fighter.  I can only assume he's mad that Maia said he would dominate Silva on the ground.  Regardless of whether or not Maia was disrespectful (he wasn't), at least he didn't disrespect the fans.

Maia saved his career in the fifth round.  Instead of being remembered as Thales Leites, he went out and put everything he had into the fifth round, and even won a full blown punching exchange with Silva.  The biggest problem was Silva's reach--he was able to use his length and power to keep Maia so far away that Maia couldn't effectively work for the takedown.

Silva did a lot of work tonight to undo the good will he had coming out of his win over Forrest Griffin.  Any progress he made in establishing himself as a draw in that fight may have been undone in Abu Dhabi.  Is GSP next?  It's hard to say.  If Anderson is willing to make the cut, St. Pierre will take the fight, but I don't see St. Pierre looking to add on muscle to fight a crowd killer like this at 185.  Where's the upside for him?

What's next for Anderson Silva?  Who knows.  Dana White is enraged right now, and seems uninterested in GSP vs. Anderson Silva after what we saw tonight.  Here's a Dana White quote from the press conference via Ariel Helwani:

I don't want to see GSP vs. Silva after tonight.  Silva might be the first champion fighting on a prelim.  I don't want to see that shit.

Say what you will about Dana, but that sentiment sums up the way a lot of fans are feeling.  One has to feel bad for Frankie Edgar, a guy who pulled off (?) an incredible upset and is getting no attention.

Prior to UFC 94, Dana White was in favor of an Anderson Silva vs. GSP superfight.  After St. Pierre destroyed BJ Penn with ease, White's tune began to change.  He's retrospectively justified his attitude change by pointing to Anderson Silva's performance against Forrest Griffin, but the real reason he is opposed is a business reason.  

In Georges St. Pierre, the UFC has an incredible cash cow.  His fights draw such monstrous numbers in Canada that they're assured a successful number every time he fights.  He's a poster boy for moving the UFC to the next level with sponsors, he represents the sport well, and he's likely to draw huge numbers for years to come.  

Hilariously (sadly), there is a group of psuedo-informed MMA fans that actually like to bash Georges St. Pierre for not wanting to move up and fight a man that naturally walks around 40 pounds bigger than he does.  Apparently taking on a steady diet of top contenders in the most talented weight class in mixed martial arts is no longer enough to avoid being deemed a coward by keyboard warriors, even though 3 of his last 4 opponents have been bigger than him.

The truth is much kinder to St. Pierre's legacy than it is to Silva's or Penn's.  Unlike Penn, St. Pierre has never claimed to be bored in his weight class before demanding to move all over the place.  He's simply taken on all challengers with the desire to be the best.  Unlike Anderson Silva, he hasn't had injuries that depend on the drawing status of his opponents.  Regardless of the business implications of the fight, St. Pierre has done nothing but accept whatever opponent the UFC gave him, whether it was Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch, or Thiago Alves.  The fact that this discipline and respect for the sport is being held against him would be humorous if it wasn't so utterly insane.

This brings us to Anderson Silva.  On the Countdown to UFC 112, Anderson Silva talked about being interested in potentially testing himself at 170 pounds.  I blew the comment off at first, but I see he made the point again to Kevin Iole.  Silva is always looking for "big" fights because his compensation is tied to buyrates, and he knows a fight with St. Pierre will do a monster number.

I have no doubt Anderson Silva can make the cut if he wants to.  He noted on the Countdown, filmed nearly two weeks ago, that he was already down to 192 and would be 185 before even getting on the plane to Abu Dhabi.  He can make 170, but that doesn't mean he'll maintain his power, reflexes, and endurance at that weight.

Further, Silva no longer faces a complete absence of challengers in his own weight class.  Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, and Wanderlei Silva could all potentially challenge him in the next year.  But without strong semi-main events, none of those fights are going to draw big buyrates, and if Lyoto retains at UFC 113 he's not going to be doing much at 205 anytime soon. 

I believe we're seeing a little bit of boxing politics between St. Pierre and Silva.  St. Pierre is a superstar in his own right; he is a monster draw, and can make millions fighting a steady diet of contenders at 170.  He doesn't need to fight Silva to make spectacular money.  Silva, on the other hand, has a mixed track record as a draw.  He's never headlined a show that did a good number without a huge co-main event.  If Silva wants this fight, he's going to have to cut the weight and go down to St. Pierre's comfort zone rather than vice versa.

As far as the fight itself, I think it would be very interesting.  I think St. Pierre can take Silva down at will, but Silva's wrist control and length will present problems on the ground.  Given the immense size difference between the two men, making Silva deal with the cut down to 170 might make it a little more fair, all things considered.

Any worries that the loser of this fight will be damaged as a draw should be dismissed.  After BJ got destroyed at UFC 94, nobody knew what his future held.  There were rumors he'd retire, and some wondered if his drawing power, which had never been substantial, would be destroyed altogether as a result of such a severe beating.  The opposite turned out to be true: Penn's next two shows drew better numbers on pay per view than any show he'd ever headlined besides his fight with St. Pierre.

I've long been a proponent of this fight, because first and foremost I am a fight fan.  I want to see dream fights, and I want to see fights where I genuinely don't know what is likely to happen.  If Silva is really willing and able to make the cut, then I'm all in favor of this fight happening.

At this point, it's close to a cliché.  All discussions about beating Anderson Silva sound something like this: person A claims the key is getting him to the ground, and then person B scoffs at the idea that Silva has a poor ground game.  Both points are valid.  The key to beating Anderson is getting him to the ground, but his ground game is also excellent.  It's just less excellent than his striking game.

For some reason, Silva's doubters continue to point to a fight with Travis Lutter that took place over 3 years ago as an example of the way to beat Silva.  Since that fight, Silva has put in a tremendous amount of work to shore up his liabilities on the ground.  He's made significant strides in his jiu jitsu game, and he's put in a tremendous amount of effort to improve his wrestling game.  The effort has paid off.  He was able to pull off a fight-changing switch against Nate Marquardt, easily nullified Franklin on the ground in their rematch, choked out Dan Henderson with ease, and easily stymied Thales Leites when Leites finally got the fight to the ground.

The problem for Maia isn't necessarily getting inside and getting this to the ground.  Virtually all of Silva's opponents who have tried to get it to the ground have succeeded at least once.  The bigger problem for him is that Anderson is good enough and crafty enough to nullify Maia on the ground by grappling defensively, and it's unlikely Maia will get two bites at the apple.  Maia's best hope is to execute a throw and wind up in half guard or side control.  If this happens, I fully believe he can submit Silva in short order.  But if he pulls guard or simply winds up in Silva's guard, I don't think he'll be any more successful than he was against Dan Miller at UFC 109 in the third round.

I disagree with the majority consensus that this fight is less interesting than Vitor Belfort vs. Anderson Silva.  Unlike Vitor, Demian Maia has a realistic path to victory.  Submitting Anderson Silva is not impossible; it's been done before, and I believe it will happen again before Anderson retires.  Will Maia be the one to do it?  I doubt it, but he's got enough of a chance that I'm really looking forward to seeing what gameplan he brings to the table this Saturday.

In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription only), Dave Meltzer reports on a very interesting internal survey commissioned by the UFC:

UFC has done extensive studying regarding its PPV buyers and there were some interesting things that it showed. The average number of viewers per household at a UFC PPV show is ten…The research showed that it varies based on the event. The stronger the event, the higher the average…For UFC, a live show on Spike, the number is closer to 1.5 per household.

The feeling is there are about 200,000 UFC hardcore PPV fans who will watch the show. The rest are going to buy if friends want them to buy, which is why the numbers vary so much. Most of the audience variance are people who are not MMA fans, but fans looking to watch entertainment that people are talking about. It has more of an entertainment lure than a sports lure to the general public.

The feeling is well over 16 million people saw UFC 100 on television, which is as big as the biggest sporting events on network television except NFL playoffs, World Series and NCAA finals.

There's a lot to unpack here.  I'd really love to see the actual study, just to get an idea of how big the sample was and where it was drawn from.  It certainly does not include the number of people who stream the show illegally, but at the same time that number only adds to the total number of viewers watching the show, so it doesn't hurt the study.  

I'd be interested to know if the sample includes those that pay for the Yahoo stream.  In my personal experience, if I order a show I am far more likely to have people over to watch it than if I just watch it on the Yahoo stream.  I've always questioned the "10 people per event" number the UFC throws out, but I've been to a fair share of event parties with 10-20 people at the show, half of whom see a couple events a year, if that.  It would be also interesting to know if this study includes events at sports bars, which often have upwards of 200+ people.

The fact that 10 people show up to watch PPV events on average is very significant, if true, especially when you consider the 1.5 multiplier for Spike shows.  Some writers, including yours truly, have floated a theory that it's better to compete against the UFC on PPV nights because even their biggest number is still smaller than their average number on Spike TV.  This new data suggests that competing against the UFC on PPV dates would be a flawed strategy.

Many have argued that the UFC is stunting its long term growth by sticking to a PPV model.  According to proponents of this theory, the UFC should be willing to take a short term revenue loss in order to get a broadcast teleivision deal, which would help expose the product to the masses.  But if this internal survey data is correct, going on free television is unlikely to increase the total number of people that see the fights.  If these numbers are correct, over 16 million Americans watched UFC 100 on PPV.  Does anyone think they'd have done much higher than that on broadcast television?  It seems like people find a way to see these shows regardless of whether they're free.

The survey's conclusion that most fans that watch are not hardcore MMA fans is not a huge surprise.  This is why companies like the IFL fail while PPV's like Ortiz-Shamrock 2 draw huge numbers.  However, it would be a mistake to assume that entertainment and sports are entirely distinct from one another.  The fact that Machida-Shogun drew a bigger number than Griffin-Ortiz suggests that even those fans that watch for entertainment purposes are largely influenced by sports considerations.

Update:  I got an email from Dave Meltzer saying that the survey does not include bars.

Over the past few years, we've seen a number of situations in which a fighter works his way up to the number one contender spot, loses the title fight, and then spends the next few years proving that he can beat anyone in the division except the champion.  Jon Fitch and Rich Franklin come immediately to mind, and now Kenny Florian finds himself in a similar position.

Florian has to be considered the favorite against anybody in the UFC lightweight division besides BJ Penn.  The next logical fight for Florian is Gray Maynard, and while it's a tough fight, I would pick Florian to win it.  If he does, he'd effectively knock off the UFC's only legitimate remaining contender for BJ Penn after Frankie Edgar. 

The best fight at this point for both Florian and the UFC is a Kenny Florian vs. Diego Sanchez rematch.  They are big enough names to co-headline a PPV event, and there is a good story behind the fight.  The f act that i t wouldn't eliminate immediate contenders for Penn's title is an additional benefit.

Can Kenny Florian beat BJ Penn?  Nothing is impossible in MMA, but it would be an uphill battle.  It's hard to imagine him putting Penn on his back and dominating from top position, and the striking gap between Penn and Florian was huge at UFC 101.  It's possible Florian can close that gap over time, but it's not as if Penn is over the hill or declining.

Unfortunately for Kenny, dropping down a division is not really an option.  He'd find himself out of the UFC and on Versus in a sinking promotion, out of sight and out of mind.  Perhaps the best idea for Florian is to keep finishing fights and to bide his time until BJ Penn abdicates his title and leaves the Lightweight division altogether.

After screaming in horror at Dan Miragliotta's decision to allow Shane Carwin to repeatedly punch a man laying face down with his arms out, it struck me that Frank Mir's career is once again at a crossroads.  Having lost two of three fights at heavyweight, he once again finds himself in a position where he must win his next fight to stay relevant.

Frank Mir is one of the company's top attractions, mostly because of his way with words.  He doesn't need to be a world beater to stay on top of cards, he simply needs to stay relevant.  Even though he lost to Shane Carwin this past Saturday, if he wins two fights while Brock, Shane, and Cain work out the title situation, he could find himself right in line for a shot at the title again.  I don't believe he has the physical gifts required to be the UFC heavyweight champion, but he certainly has the brains to remain a top draw.

The first thing Mir must decide is whether to continue his effort to put on size.  His physical transformation suggests to me that he spends almost as much time lifting as he does training his skills.  Coming out of his fight with Lesnar, I believe Mir drew the wrong conclusion.  He convinced himself that strength was the only reason for his loss, and that if he could close the gap he had the skills to beat anyone.  

He may have looked as big or bigger than Shane Carwin, but it didn't matter.  Carwin was the stronger man, and had his way with Mir.  Mir's defense against the cage was hapless; he simply stood still without making any notable efforts to create distance or pull guard.  It was almost as if he didn't anticipate the fight taking place anywhere besides on the ground or at striking range.

I think an appropriate fight for Frank Mir is Junior Dos Santos.  Dos Santos has been on a reign of terror since debuting in the UFC against Fabricio Werdum, but he's still a few fights away from a title shot.  A dominant win over Frank Mir would put him in prime position to go for the title at the end of 2010.  For Mir, in order to prove his relevance he must show that he can beat one of the UFC's young lions at heavyweight. 

UFC 111 is the biggest UFC show in a long time.  Georges St. Pierre, their biggest star outside of Brock Lesnar, finally makes his return after 8 months on the sideline, and an interim heavyweight champion will be crowned.  The show is already a success at the gate, having sold out to a tune of over $4 million.

How will it do on pay per view?  It's hard to say.  The company has done three straight weak numbers, but all for cards that nobody expected to draw anyway.  The best point of comparison is UFC 107, which featured BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez and Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo.  That card did about 650,000 buys.

GSP is a bigger draw than BJ Penn, primarily due to the fact that every GSP card brings in an extra 100,000 purchases from Canada.  But is Dan Hardy a draw at all?  He has a big personality, but he's certainly not as credible in the eyes of UFC fans as Diego Sanchez.  Based on the poll pictured above, the vast majority of UFC fans expect Dan Hardy to lose.  Will over 600,000 fans buy a card just to see GSP dominate a random opponent?

UFC 107 built a ton of steam the week of the event thanks to Frank Mir, who relentlessly antagonized Cheick Kongo.  Mir has done nothing but compliment Shane Carwin this time around, most likely because he wants to avoid the spotlight so soon after the "scandal" over his comments.  Shane Carwin means next to nothing to casual UFC fans from a buyrate perspective.  

From a business perspective, Mir-Carwin may be the most important fight on the card, because the winner is probably fighting Brock Lesnar at UFC 116.  If Mir wins and they set up a third fight, it's probably worth in excess of 500,000 buys more than a Lesnar-Carwin fight.

The card took a big blow in the loss of Thiago Alves.  I don't expect that to affect the buyrate much, but it was the fight on the card I was looking forward to the most, and I don't think I'm alone there.  

I think this card will do between 575,000 and 650,000 buys in North America, which is a really strong number if you consider the fact that it's really just for one man: Georges St. Pierre.

As a long time proponent of using the slow track for developing fighters, I am willing to admit when an exception should be made.  Jon Jones is so uniquely talented that I see virtually no reason to put him on the slow path to stardom.  He's been in the featured fight of the last two shows he's been on, and on both occasions he put on what I consider the performance of his career.  He has nerves of steel and the skills to back it up; there's no reason to put him against someone like Matyushenko or Ryan Bader at this point.  

The usual case for the slow track goes something like this:  fighter X obviously has the potential to be a top fighter, but he's not there yet, and there's no reason to rush his progression when there are so many holes in his game.  Phil Davis is a good example of a fighter who should be on the slow track.

Jon Jones has the skills to be competitive with just about anyone at Light Heavyweight.  He dominated Vera in the clinch, took him down at will, and maintained his composure after taking a nasty illegal shot.  His progression as a fighter reminds me of Georges St. Pierre: he has the flashy standing skills to win, but he's going to use his wrestling to keep people off balance and control the pace of his fights.  

So who is next for Jon Jones?  I say put him against the winner of Forrest Griffin vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.  I fully expect Nogueira to win that fight, and a Jones-Nogueira fight would really give us the answers about both men in 2010 that we're all looking for.  It would also establish a legitimate number one contender for the Light Heavyweight title for the year-end show, once the whole Shogun/Machida/Rampage/Evans situation sorts itself out.

It's time to get Jon Jones in the mix at 205.  If he does lose to a top fighter like Shogun or Nogueira, he is still very young and has plenty of time to rebuild himself. 

UFC 111 takes place on March 27, a day before the WWE's biggest event of the year, Wrestlemania.  Competing with WWE on PPV is nothing new for the UFC, they do it all the time.  The most interesting story of the weekend is whether Georges St. Pierre can draw a bigger number in Canada than Bret Hart's return to wrestling against Vince McMahon.

Dave Meltzer has a lot of valuable information on the race between Bret and GSP in Canada this week in his newsletter:

An interesting note is that both these shows in theory should do their biggest per capita business in Canada. The Hart vs. McMahon story, more because of Hart and secondarily because the incident was in Montreal, and became far more of a mainstream news story, means far more in that country.

GSP has drawn the three biggest buy rates of any kind in the history of Canada, with the two biggest in his last two fights. UFC 111 right now is trending 24% ahead of Mania in the U.S., with Arizona being the WWE strong point. In Canada, UFC 111 is tripling Mania as of this week. Bret Hart, on the other hand, trends stronger than GSP by 14% in Canada this year, with Montreal and Vancouver the only major markets in GSP’s favor. But in the past week, GSP has tripled that of Hart.

St. Pierre's strength as a PPV draw in Canada is something to behold: he first set the Canadian PPV record against Matt Serra in 2008, and went on to set it again at both UFC 94 and UFC 100.  It will be interesting to see how well he draws in Canada against Dan Hardy, who is nowhere near the draw BJ Penn was.  I don't know anybody that sees Dan Hardy as a legitimate threat to St. Pierre, and it's not as if this card is anywhere near the epic card that UFC 100 was.  If St. Pierre breaks the record again against Dan Hardy, it will go a long way in cementing St. Pierre as the top drawing star in the UFC.