SB Nation User Blog: Michael Rome

UFC 93 on Spike TV?

Michael Rome — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:04:16 -0000

There have been a rash of stories over the past few days suggesting UFC 93 would be on PPV. I was kind of surprised because I knew negotiations were ongoing and I knew Dana wants to only do one PPV a month next year. This may just be an online gaffe, and maybe the show is still on PPV, but the newest image put up today on UFC.com suggests the show is on Spike TV. Head over to the UFC's home page for the image.

Hopefully the show is on Spike, there is a PPV overload early next year.

Update: They have changed the image. This afternoon, there was a promo image for UFC 93 that had a Spike TV logo on it. Now it is changed and no longer has the image, suggesting it was a mistake.

I didn't post it because the people over there have been especially militant about going after sites for using their pictures lately, so I didn't want any trouble.

Gina Carano Should Be in the UFC

Michael Rome — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:40:53 -0000

While the internet celebrates Dana White's change of mood regarding Gina Carano, I remain very skeptical of the plan to bring her to the WEC. For better or worse, the WEC is a novelty promotion. Due to its lack of exposure and funds, it doesn't get much attention, which is why the followup to Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver did just half as well as that fight.

Enter Gina Carano, the third biggest free television draw in MMA history, behind Tito Ortiz and Kimbo Slice. She may even be bigger than Tito, because she drew ratings completely on her own as opposed to being in a big title fight or in a big grudge match built over months on a reality show. Not only were her gains unbelievable, they came mostly in the target demographic of males 18-34.

So here's the question: why in the world do you take the third biggest TV draw in MMA history and put her on a show where the maximum possible rating is probably something like a 1.2? It makes no sense, it's a complete waste, and it's reeks of condescension. There is no reason to "test the waters." The waters have been tested, and women's MMA passed with flying colors.

I was at UFC 91, and during a break between fights I got up to get a drink, and saw Carano entering with a group toward her seats. She was absolutely mobbed by adoring fans, the same fans who would certainly accept her fighting in the UFC. Surely there is room when UFC cards are filled with fights like Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha Al-Turk.

If they really need to "test the waters," they should do Carano vs. Santos on the Spike TV special scheduled for February 7th. In the main event, it will outdraw just about anything they can do in that spot.

Anderson Silva Begins Boxing Training With Freddie Roach

Michael Rome — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:16:14 -0000

As if Anderson Silva's opponents needed more reason to worry, Anderson Silva began training with Freddie Roach today. The fact that Roach is becoming more and more involved with MMA is an interesting story in and of itself, but Silva may also be doing this in order to see where he stands for a potential boxing career once he's done with MMA.

On another note, Silva has definitely been tapped for the main event of London in February. They are considering a few possibilities against him, including Chuck. I think the only obstacle to this fight happening is the idea of Liddell vs. Couture for the summer, potentially at UFC 100. I suspect they will pull the trigger on it though, seeing as both men want it.

The 1.2 Million Strategy

Michael Rome — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:04:23 -0000

All week Dana White proclaimed that he thought UFC 91 would do 1.2 million buys. I was skeptical from the beginning that this show would break the million mark, and two weeks out when the hype was not there, I thought they'd come way short.

The rating that Ortiz-Shamrock drew in 2006 opened up a lot of media eyes. The numbers at that point were undeniable, they all knew they'd have to cover it. They were burned again in early 2007 by missing the media story of the year, Randy Couture coming out of retirement to beat up a giant. This time, the promise of Randy and huge success brought them in, and the presence of Brock Lesnar certainly didn't hurt.

The kind of coverage the show got this week was simply amazing. Dana White was on First Take and Jim Rome, the UFC was all over SportsCenter, and the MMA Live team covered the show on location. The coverage was also completely respectful: it focused on the fights rather than focusing on whether this was even a sport to begin with. In a word, that is progress.

The trending numbers look very good early. I expect the buys to break the 800 mark, which is the internal prediction of the show as of a few days before it. If they do 1.2 million, they'll be doing cartwheels in the street, but 800 is an incredible number and there's no reason to slam it. If I had to go out on a limb, I am going to predict 900,000 buys, and my guess is we'll know soon enough.

Live at UFC 91

Michael Rome — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:13:12 -0000

I attended UFC 91 in Las Vegas this past weekend, and before I discuss the show, I just want to say that very little can match the live experience of a big UFC main event. The tension and excitement in the crowd absolutely blew away anything I've ever been a part of.

I loudly predicted Randy Couture would defeat Brock Lesnar, and obviously I have to eat humble pie. For the first round, the fight went as I expected. Lesnar took him down, but Randy was able to fight his way back up. After the round, I still believed Randy could win. He essentially stuffed Brock's wrestling, an ominous sign for Brock's future against guys like Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez.

What I didn't expect was Brock beating Couture in standing exchanges. I didn't expect such effective knees out of the clinch and that brutal elbow. I also didn't know if he could take a clean, straight punch--but he did, and appeared completely unfazed.

I don't think the fight necessarily says anything bad about Randy. His work getting up against Lesnar was extraordinary, but Lesnar's power was just too much. I got the feeling Randy trained so hard for wrestling and just assumed he'd pick Brock apart standing, and it just didn't happen.

Going forward, Nogueira-Lesnar is a classic match. The story is perfect for Nogueira, and if they hype it right it is a gigantic fight. I'm also very interested to see what is next for Randy. Despite reports to the contrary, I am hearing that they want to hold Chuck off until June to fight Randy in Germany. If I was Joe Silva for a day, I'd do that fight at heavyweight and give the winner a shot against the tournament winner. Brock-Randy II would be even bigger, but Chuck-Brock would probably be the biggest fight in UFC history. And of course either of them vs. Nogueira would be great too. If they insist on moving Randy back to 205 to end his career, fights against Chuck and Anderson would be big ones and a good way to go out.

One other note: the UFC does a terrible job with sound. Now that I've seen the broadcast, it just doesn't even come close to conveying the emotion in the audience. The crowd just absolutely went berserk for everything Randy did, and they really need a sound upgrade to capture that emotion for television.

More ESPN Coverage of UFC 91

Michael Rome — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:21:43 -0000

The coverage for this show already blows away what ESPN did for Rampage and Chuck last May. I've been very critical of their coverage in the past, but it's hard not to smile when thinking about the possibility of ESPN one day covering every major MMA event this way. Sure the host mispronounces Gracie's name, but really, I think we should all just be happy they're doing their best to learn and cover it.

Economy Hits PPV Industry Hard

Michael Rome — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:45:04 -0000

Historically entertainment is relatively recession proof. Hollywood is famously counter cyclical, and boxing has a history of doing well in hard times. However, if the latest two boxing buyrates are any indication, the PPV industry is getting hit hard by economic problems.

According to Dave Meltzer, Bernard Hopkins vs. Kelly Pavlik did 195,000 buys, while Roy Jones Jr. vs. Joe Calzaghe did 225,000 buys. Some at HBO expected the latter to do half a million based on the great 24/7 preview series.

I still believe the UFC will be fine as long as they stick to about one PPV show a month with a good main event to sell, but I think the idea of WEC on PPV is crazy at this point.

Dana White Is Open to Promoting Gina Carano vs. Cyborg Santos

Michael Rome — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:25:23 -0000

In an important nugget buried in the latest episode of MMA Live, Dana White confirmed to Jon Anik that he would be interested in promoting Gina Carano vs. Cyborg Santos. His answer represents a major change in UFC policy:

I wouldn't be opposed to it...and if I did do it, it would probably be in the WEC.

The other night in an interview for Wrestling Observer Radio, Gina Carano made it very clear that it is her dream to compete in a big fight in Las Vegas for the UFC. Dana White has gone from completely opposing the entire concept of women's MMA to considering promoting this fight for the WEC. The position is clearly changing in rapid fashion, and if fans keep pressing women can finally get their chance to shine in the UFC.

The Case for Randy Couture: It's All About Instincts

Michael Rome — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:39:39 -0000

Most expert opinion is moving in the way of Brock Lesnar now as the fight approaches. He's too big, too strong, too good of a wrestler, too athletic...and Randy is just too old.

There are so many key factors in this fight that it's impossible to address them all in one post, but I believe the deciding factor in this fight will be instincts. A great comparison is to look at how both followed up their knockdowns of Tim Sylvia and Heath Herring. Randy looked shocked at first, but immediately rushed in, landed several lefts, and took the back to try to get a choke. Brock Lesnar followed with...I don't know, a quarterback sack type maneuver. He ended up against the cage holding Herring in a headlock while he looked to his corner for advice and then figured out what to do.

The problem for Lesnar is his instincts aren't there. If Randy ends up on top in half guard, Lesnar is not going to be able to take 15 seconds, remember what to do in this situation, and then do it. He'll have to be ready to defend immediately, or he'll get pounded. I have no doubt Randy can recover and survive a bad shot, but for Brock, as soon as something goes wrong, I think it's over for him.

When Brock Lesnar trained for Frank Mir, he trained the escape to that leg submission thousands of times with great submission coaches. But in the heat of the moment, when Frank got it, Brock didn't even go for the most rudimentary of escapes. He felt the pain in his leg and just tapped. He panicked, and that is the kind of thing Randy Couture does not do.

If Randy Couture floors Brock and grabs his back, I have no doubt he'll easily grab a choke and finish, just because I don't think Brock will show the poise Tim showed that night. He will one day, but it's just too early. For Brock to win, he needs to finish early, or go a full 5 rounds without making a mistake. The latter is highly unlikely, so he needs to finish early.

I'm obviously not ruling out a Brock victory. If it turns into a pure wrestling match, it's Brock's fight. He could bust Randy's eye socket from the top and it will be over, he could catch Randy with a perfect punch...but the odds of Randy catching Brock with that punch are much higher.

In the end, Randy Couture is fighting a phenom, but the phenom is 2-1. He has never been punched in the face in a fight. He looked clueless in the clinch just 3 months ago. I believe Randy Couture will finish Brock Lesnar, and finish him early.

Has Age Caught Up With Randy Couture?

Michael Rome — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:07:13 -0000

I've been unwilling to buy this argument mostly because I have contacts in his camp that vehemently deny it and claim his punching power and wrestling are the best they've ever been. However, this picture comparison over at Yahoo may really be worth a thousand words.

Expect the line to really spread against Randy after the weigh-ins.

[UPDATE] by Nick Thomas: Audio from the UFC 91 workout day via Steve Cofield / ESPN Radio1100:

Randy Couture: - "I think in a lot of ways Lesnar's brash kind of bravado is covering up a little of his insecurities."

Brock Lesnar: - "By the looks of it, Randy looks like he took a year off."