UFC 105 kind of snuck up on me, and now we're just two days away from seeing Randy Couture fight on Spike TV.  Because the show is free on Spike, the UFC has done little to advertise it, and it's caught between Fedor Emelianenko's debut on network television and what was once Brock Lesnar's return date.  The three top fights are still very important for the UFC going forward, and for a free show it's very strong.

The main event fight is particularly interesting.  Randy Couture is the biggest star to ever fight in the UK, which helps explain why they are doing so well in the ticket sales department after a number of sluggish showings overseas.  Brandon Vera is probably the most dangerous 205 fighter outside of the top 10, inasmuch as he has the talent and skills to be a top fighter, but it remains to be seen whether he has the heart.

There's a palpable sense of anticipation among the MMA press and fans alike that this show will be Vera's breakout fight.  Randy's lost two in a row, people have raised questions about his chin, and Vera has a dangerous Thai striking game.  Personally, I'm conflicted on what will happen here.  Vera has the quicker path to victory, but his reluctance to pull the trigger against a guy like Krystof Soszynski makes me wonder if he'll freeze when he sees Randy on the other side of the octagon.  I also have doubts about his power at light heavyweight, as he's yet to really drop anyone at this weight class.  

Many fans know the two trained together back at the Olympic Training Center, but only Brandon Vera and a select few know how far above Vera's level Couture was in the wrestling department at that time.  Has time narrowed the gap?  We'll see Saturday.  

From a business perspective, the UFC desperately wants Couture to win this fight and extend his career, but a spectacular Vera win wouldn't be the worst thing either.  Depending on how long Machida is out with his hand injury, I would not be surprised to see the winner of this fight take on Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, with the winner of that fight facing Machida in May or June.

Michael Bisping and Dan Hardy are both fighting on this card, which is a big deal for the UFC's UK expansion plans.  There is a lot more risk than reward on the line here.  If Bisping and Hardy both get stopped, which is a real possibility, the UFC will have to completely start over with its plans to create British stars.  I have no doubt that members of the UFC UK office will be at ringside hoping and praying Dan Hardy and Michael Bisping pull off victories.

Photo via Showtime

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I was initially discouraged by the Strikeforce ratings news, but the final number for the Fedor fight was very good.  5.46 million viewers tuned in and saw Fedor fight.  

People are going to argue that viewers tuned in for the news, but it's an irrelevant point.  The viewership numbers are an average from 11:00-11:15.  If someone tuned in for the news and it wasn't on, they'd turn the show off.  If they didn't and kept watching, then there's no reason not to count those viewers.  Eyeballs are eyeballs.  Someone seeing it and then telling people about it is just as good if not better than someone seeking it out.

The fight came in below Kimbo Slice's fights on CBS and on Spike, and also came in below Gina Carano's fight with Kaitlin Young on the first CBS show.  The important thing to note is the large increase in viewership in a short period of time, the half hour before had just 4.01 million viewers, which means the main event segment posted a viewership increase of 1.45 million viewers.  It's an impressive number, and probably enough for CBS to do another MMA show with Fedor on top.  He'll probably draw even better next time.

The final number is supposedly a 2.5, which is a respectable number even if not a home run.  For a show built around a Russian nobody knew with no Gina Carano fight anchoring the main event, this is not a bad rating.  I believe if there was a Gina co-main event the Fedor fight could have potentially rivaled the numbers Kimbo did.  It would have also done better if the Shields-Miller match didn't kill the show's ratings growth.

Unfortunately for Strikeforce, it looks like Fedor is out for at least 6 months with an injury.  They have a solid Showtime deal and can continue to build stars over there, but with Gina out for the forseeable future it's hard to see who they could main event a CBS show with before Fedor returns.  My advice would be to hold off on a second show until he is healthy.  The decision to do a second CBS show for EliteXC in July was disastrous, and it was entirely forseeable that the number would be poor.  Strikeforce and CBS shouldn't set themselves up for failure; instead they should spend 6-8 months building stars on Showtime and in the press and then return to CBS with Fedor's next fight. In the meantime, CBS can contribute by continuing to promote and advertise Strikeforce and its stars.

One thing is for certain: Fedor Emelianenko is no longer an unknown quantity in the U.S.  5 million people saw him win a fantastic fight with a spectacular knockout.  His value increased a lot as a result of this show.

There were a number of winners and losers coming out of Strikeforce's first CBS show.  Below I've listed the winners, losers, and those who fell somewhere in the middle.

Winners:

Gina Carano: Before the show, I noted Carano would be an interested observer in the ratings on CBS.  Now that the numbers have come in and CBS took last place in its timeslot, it's clear that they need Gina to do a big number on broadcast television.  Instead of gaining 1.5 million viewers on the undercard with Gina and building toward the main event, the show lost a ton of steam with the Jake Shields fight, which turned viewers off.  To break the 3.0 barrier they need Gina.

Fedor Emelianenko: Fedor is a big winner coming out of the first Strikeforce CBS show.  His previous largest audience in the United States was at just about 100,000 viewers for Affliction.  Close to 5 million viewers watched him knock Brett Rogers out in spectacular fashion in a show built entirely around him. 

Brett Rogers: Rogers did well for himself.  I expected him to get blown out, but he put up a hell of a fight and actually had Fedor in trouble.  If he can put together a few wins he could have a legitimate claim on a rematch.

MMA Fans: When CBS first presented MMA, they built around Kimbo Slice, who is a celebrity that can't fight.  Fedor is the exact opposite.  He's the best fighter in MMA history, but he's not a celebrity.  At least not yet.  I have a feeling his days of anonymity are coming to an end.  Those of us who are fans of the sport should be thankful a network like CBS was willing to dedicate a Saturday night to a foreign icon with no name value in the United States just because he is the best in the world.

Losers:

Jake Shields: Shields is the only guy that undisputedly came out of this show in a worse place than he was at before.  The crowd hated him more and more as the fight went on, and the ratings demonstrate that he drove viewers away in droves.  He "won" the fight but lost the war.  He's not going to be on CBS again any time soon.

Mark Miller and Deray Davis: These guys didn't get a chance to fight despite training to fight for weeks.  It's nice they were paid their "show" money, but at that level it is more about the opportunity to fight than the peanuts they make to fight.  They gave up other fight dates to train for this one, and it's a shame they didn't get the opportunity to fight.

Somewhere in the middle:

Strikeforce: The name of the company was rarely mentioned on the telecast.  This was clearly "Saturday Night Fights" and not "Strikeforce."  Maybe that's for the best, but I don't think they gained much in terms of name value from the CBS opportunity.  They did a decent rating and put on a nice card, and I do think they'll get another opportunity, so from that perspective it was a success.  It's worth noting they only got into the national television business in early 2009, and in less than a year they've signed Fedor, promoted Carano vs. Cyborg, and secured a spot on CBS.  Not bad at all.  

CBS: The broadcast was a mixed bag.  Gus Johnson was better than he's been in the past, Mauro was informative at times and way too jokey at others, and Frank was insightful even though he constantly mispronounced Sokoudjou's name.  The pacing of the show was very good, but the cutaways between rounds and before decisions to interviews really rubbed me the wrong way, especially for non-interviews with Fedor's people and translators.  At least they didn't have any skeleton segments.  

Fast overnight ratings are out for Strikeforce.  The overnights only measure the ratings from 8:00pm to 11:00pm, which means the numbers contained do not include the main event of the show.  The main event started at about 11:02, so the entire main event was in the overrun, which was not measured here.

But the fight was more interesting than the ratings which were not through the roof (though on par with previous MMA bouts that CBS has aired, like the one with Kimbo-Slice), keeping in mind that the post 11pm portion I haven’t seen yet will be higher, from 9p-11pm it averaged 3.79 million and a 1.7/6 rating share with adults 18-49.  It did win the 10pm-11pm hour with adults 18-49 and had better results with men 18-34 where it won every half hour. Here are the ratings notes via CBS…

9:00 p.m. – Viewers: 3.50 million (#4), A18-49: 1.5/ 5 (#3)
9:30 p.m. – Viewers: 3.53 million (#4), A18-49: 1.6/ 5 (#2)
10:00 p.m. – Viewers: 4.12 million (#3), A18-49: 1.9/ 6 (#1)
10:30 p.m. – Viewers: 4.01 million (#3), A18-49: 1.8/ 6 (#1).

Even without the overrun, it looks like the show came in much stronger than Lawler-Smith but below the Kimbo Slice shows.  The first Kimbo show really benefitted from a long overrun and a 15 minute fight that went so far over that it infuriated local CBS news affiliate.

The overrun number is really the key number; everyone wants to see how Fedor did in terms of viewership.  The current numbers don't tell us much about that, so we'll have to wait another day or two to find out.  Be very skeptical of anyone out there calling this a disaster until we see the overrun.  This show was built entirely around one fight, the main event, and did not have someone like Gina Carano to push up numbers in the co-main event.

Photo by Dave Mandel via ESPN.com

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Perhaps the most amazing part about Fedor Emelianenko is that he is just a man.  He's not chiseled out of stone, he has plenty of weaknesses, and he bleeds like the rest of us.  He is mortal. 

Throughout his career, the most famous moments are those in which he looked vulnerable.  When Fujita rocked him.  When Randleman slammed him.  When CroCop landed on him.  When Lindland landed and cut him.  When Arlovski stalked him.  And then tonight, when he was cut early and Rogers was on top landing, I wondered if the magic would really end with Brett Rogers.  It didn't.

Fedor continued his streak of highlight real KO's with an overhand right that would make Chuck Liddell blush.  Rogers immediately melted, along with his chance of making history.  After the fight, Rogers said that if he had another chance he would win.  That's what they all say after losing to Fedor.

While I would love to see Fedor fight Brock Lesnar, there's a small part of me that thinks it should never happen.  For Fedor to lose his streak at the hands of a giant 60 pounds bigger than him seems like an injustice to the greatest fighter in the history of the sport.  I won't complain about seeing Fedor fight for free on CBS against dangerous opponents.

Brett Rogers proved me wrong, and brought more to the table than I expected.  He fought patiently, which was the right tactic.  I expected him to bullrush Fedor and get crushed, but instead he fought a smart fight for the most part. His key mistake was moving away from the jab and failing to continue pressing the fight up against the fence.  Out in the open he was just a slow-moving target and Fedor ate him alive.  I do think he put in a good enough performance to warrant an opportunity for a rematch if he can win 3 or 4 fights in a row.

Who's next for Fedor?  My guess is Fabricio Werdum, which isn't exactly thrilling, but I don't have faith they'll be able to get Overeem back any time soon.  More important for his career are the ratings, which could push his value even higher if they come in strong. 

It was fairly surreal to see an American broadcast network promoting a show around a mysterious Russian.  But by the time the bell rang for the fight, there really was a "big fight" atmosphere, and the fight delivered in spades.  The only question remaining is: how many people saw it?

In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required), Dave Meltzer reported that updated trending data since his original report suggests UFC 104 did better than expected, clocking in around 475,000 buys.  If the number holds up, it's a very strong showing for a show with no co-main event and a feature bout between Brazilians.  

The show supposedly did very well in Los Angeles, which is not surprising considering the huge media push in L.A.  They weren't able to convince a lot of people to buy 300 dollar tickets, but they convinced a lot of people to buy a 50 dollar show.  

The time between shows clearly affects pay per view numbers; there have now been a number of shows that smashed expectations because they came more than a full month after the last pay per view. This is something to watch if the January 2nd show doesn't get a bigger top fight.

Finally, and most importantly, it's great news for Lyoto Machida, who in his second fight as champion is already a stronger draw than Anderson Silva is three years into his title reign.  The rematch should do very strong numbers if and when it happens.

Since her loss in August, Gina Carano has been virtually silent.  She is expected to return to Strikeforce in the summer, after she finishes filming Steven Soderbergh's new movie.  Though many have dismissed her following her disappointing performance, she is still a ratings powerhouse and a critical component of Strikeforce.  It's almost become expected that every time she fights she will set some kind of ratings record.

All eyes are on the numbers Strikeforce pulls this weekend.  I don't expect them to do blow away numbers, nor do I expect them to bomb.  I expect them to come in somewhere in the middle; perhaps something like a 2.3 household rating.  That's the kind of number that could earn them another show, but won't have CBS executives jumping up and down for joy.  If I'm correct, CBS and Strikeforce will be begging Carano to return on CBS in the summer.

Despite a large increase in salary, Carano is still underpaid.  She's the only media lightning rod in Strikeforce, and she delivers where it counts.  Strikeforce is paying Fedor significantly more than Gina, but it remains a question whether or not he is actually a bigger draw.  If Fedor bombs this weekend, Carano will find herself in an even stronger negotiating position.

Disclaimer:  This post will detail a legal complaint.  Please note that a complaint is just one side’s view of events.  I will describe some of the allegations below, but I am not saying any of them are true.  I am simply relaying M-1 and Fedor’s claims.

On October 28, 2009, M-1 and Fedor Emelianenko filed a lawsuit against Affliction Clothing, Affliction Entertainment, and 50 unnamed John Does in the Central District of California.  The complaint states claims for breach of contract, breach of the violation of good faith and fair dealing, and declaratory relief.  If they are able to join other parties, the complaint might be amended to include claims for tortuous interference with contract and related claims.

There are likely many targets among the unnamed John Does, but the UFC has to be considered the central target based on language of the complaint.  After reading the complaint, it seems possible that M-1 believes the UFC was somehow involved in the cancellation of Affliction’s third show.

The complaint alleges that Strikeforce, Affliction, and M-1 reached an agreement with M-1 to allow Brett Rogers to fight Fedor Emelianenko at Affliction: Trilogy, but unbeknownst to Fedor and M-1, Affliction was simultaneously working on a renewed sponsorship deal with the UFC that would necessarily force Affliction out of the MMA promoting business.  In short, the complaint alleges that Affliction was putting up a false front about searching for a replacement for Josh Barnett, and was simply buying time while they were trying to make a deal with the UFC.

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On November 7, Strikeforce will present the most important show in the history of the promotion, and its success hinges on whether or not a few hundred thousand viewers decide that watching a guy hyped as the greatest fighter in the world is worth their time on Saturday night.

Though they will try to lower expectations publicly, CBS is looking for fairly strong numbers.  They know it won't hit Kimbo Slice levels, but they are hoping to do significantly better than the July 2008 show featuring Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith.  Anything below four million total viewers would be a disappointment for CBS.

Nobody really knows what Fedor will draw.  His pay per view record is decidedly mixed.  Affliction's buyrates were not strong enough to keep the promotion afloat, but they were the best numbers ever done outside of the UFC.  It's also important to note that it is much easier to convince people to watch a new fighter for the first time on free TV than it is to convince them to pay to see a guy they've never seen before.  There may be a curiosity factor that drives ratings up.

When EliteXC was successful on television, they had two main events pulling in viewers.  Gina Carano set record with the viewership increases she drew, and then Kimbo followed up by breaking records of his own.  On this show, there is only one fight with the prospect to be a really strong draw.

From my perspective, anything below a 2.0 is a big disappointment.  Something in the mid-2's would be a strong showing, and a number above a 3.0 would be an unqualified success.  If they bring in a number above a 2.5, expect CBS to order a number of additional shows.

Following his victory over Ben Rothwell, news broke that Cain Velasquez could fight for the heavyweight title in Mexico City next year.  This would be a very bad idea, and I think Joe Silva and company are smart enough to avoid rushing Cain's title shot.

Cain Velasquez is a future UFC superstar.  At just 6-0 he made Ben Rothwell, a man nearly thirty pounds bigger than him, look like a weak rookie.  He tossed Rothwell around like a child.  Given his skill at this point in his career, his background in wrestling in jiu-jitsu, his all-action fighting style, and his Latino heritage, the man is destined for stardom. Unless they blow his star early by forcing him into a position he's not ready for.

It's worth stepping back and recognizing that most UFC fans barely know who he is.  This past weekend was the first time he got any sort of star reaction from a crowd.  His name is on its way to becoming part of the regular vocabulary of the casual UFC fan; in a year, with 2 or 3 more victories, he will be a big star poised for his first title shot in a very marketable main event.  If they give him a title shot in April, it will help draw in Mexico, but on PPV it will be worth about as much as any random heavyweight going for the title.

Cain Velasquez is young.  He's not like Shane Carwin, who's already up there in age.  His eventual fight with Brock Lesnar for the title, assuming Lesnar holds onto it for a while, could be a huge event.  If they don't blow it too early.  Giving Cain his shot now would be like giving Lyoto his shot 4 months after beating Sokoudjou.  Would he have been ready?  Sure.  Was it the right time? No.

From a marketing perspective, it's best to avoid having to introduce fighters challenging for the title, because they just might win.  Nobody's talking about it, but Shogun winning the title in a long, drawn-out decision would have been bad for business.  The fans barely know Shogun.  But now he has an identity.  He was screwed, or so a lot of people think. Now fans will care about him, the rematch will be bigger than the first, and if he wins he'll be a star instead of another new champion the UFC has to strain to promote.  It's counterintuitive, but it's how the fight business works.

They should exercise patience with Cain Velasquez.  They already have a marketable contender heading toward the end of his career in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, they should spend their time building their young contenders so they actually have some new stars when the older class of stars retires.  There are all sorts of options for Cain Velasquez: Mirko CroCop, Frank Mir, Junior Dos Santos, Heath Herring, and Gabriel Gonzaga would all make sense.

There's a simple trick you can do to figure out if a title shot is coming too soon from a business perspective.  Think of how the UFC would market the fight in the United States if it happened.  In this case, the 30 second spot in April would probably have a narrarator reading something like this:  "UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon to defend his heavyweight title at UFC 113.  After knocking out Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar is looking to cement his legacy as the best heavyweight fighter in the world.  Standing in his way is undefeated up and coming heavyweight Cain Velasquez, who destroyed former IFL champion Ben Rothwell at UFC 104...."  

You get the picture.  The ad would focus completely on Lesnar, and then mention his opponent briefly at the end. And it would make sense to do it that way.  Fans care about Brock at this point way more than they care about Cain.  They shouldn't fight until fans care about both.