news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070729/SPT04/707290354

I'll summarize the column by quoting Erardi's conclusion "Turns out, it (RISP) means almost nothing." and citing the two primary points which lead him to his conclusion:
-"For a career, most batters hit within a few points of their overall average with RISP." and
-"The NL overall batting average is .261; with RISP, it's .260."

How's that for third grade thinking?

And Based on Erardi's other columns, "The case for Keeping Adam Dunn" and "Trade Arroyo, Keep Dunn" it's not hard to figure out where he's coming from with all this mess and what he hopes to accomplish.

I won't fact check Erardi, I'll assume his two facts are correct - that "most" batters do hit near their overall avg. with RISP and that the league overall and RISP averages are usually fairly close. HOWEVER, in the context of the CINCINNATI REDS and ADAM DUNN those facts MEAN NOTHING.

Adam Dunn is NOT "most" batters. ADAM DUNN IS and has been the cleanup or 3/5 hole hitter on this team for years. His batting avg. with RISP is consistently ~30 points BELOW an already RELATIVELY LOW batting average. The whole construct of major league batting orders is to get top of the order hitters on base and in scoring position so 3/4/5/6/7 hole hitters can drive those runners in. To the CINCINNATI REDS it makes no difference what league averages or "most" hitters do. What matters to the CINCINNATI REDS is what Cincinnati Reds hitters do and when the Reds arguably most important rbi guy in the lineup with RISP is CONSISTENTLY ~30 points below an already low Batting Average this is a problem ! These are opportunities LOST............stranded Runners... defense, pitching and TIMELY hitting are the age old components of WINNING Baseball. A big part of "timely" hitting is hitting with RISP.

What makes up an "average" John Erardi? Well, typically a certain number of "entities/trials" which are on or near the average, another group which are above, and another group which lie BELOW......... when one of the Cincinnati Reds key RBI guys year after year is BELOW average this is a problem. 7 years of RISP struggles !!! Your line of thinking Erardi is wait 7 more years for the Law of Averages to kick in for Adam?? ... ?.....not going to happen...........

More likely John Erardi, not being able to hit with RISP is an attribute of Adam Dunn. It is an attribute which has its roots in his bad hitting fundamentals, feast/famine approach and inability to situationally/technically adjust as a hitter. These are qualities of Adam Dunn which show no signs of changing. These are some of the things that make Adam NOT "most" batters..............and NOT in a good way.........more likely Adam Dunn will continue to struggle with RISP for the next 7 years and some other hitter in baseball on the Cardinals, Red Sox or Yankees will continue to hit with RISP above his already fairly good batting average. This is how "averages" work John. Problem is the Reds are on the wrong end of all this courtesy of Adam Dunn (for one).

I don't know who you are John Erardi but I do know your steps for reaching a conclusion are suspect and that you don't know baseball.

The spillover/collateral damage of Adam Dunn....

When Jay Bruce arrives on the scene do you want Adam Dunn to be the one to take Bruce "under his wing"? Do you want Jay Bruce to take his cues from Dunn?

When they arrive in Sarasota next spring do you want Jay Bruce to join Dunn for a couple rounds of golf on Sundays? Go fishing down at Siesta Key? Toss down beers and talk Texas at the Dacquiri Deck? Is this what will serve Jay Bruce best in his development as a BASEBALL PLAYER??

Yes, these things don't show up in an OPS or RC number but they show up in the standings.

Will Adam Dunn tell Bruce stories of how when he first came up to the majors he had trouble with strikeouts, fielding, hitting the better pitchers, over-eating but through HARD WORK, focused off season drills, winter ball, treadmill he transformed himself into a more rounded, versatile baseball player?? Through a committment to doing whatever it takes he overcame those obstacles? Ummmm no, don't think any of those stories will be coming out of Dunn's mouth.......................

For years now the individual players on this team have NOT had a "whatever it takes" attitude and the team as a whole hasn't either. When you look to what is the root source for the collective attitude of a team look no further than the team's most charismatic, visible, influential, powerful players........in the Reds case, look to Adam Dunn.

Sure the bullpen blows but it is the everyday players that more times than not are the source of the personality of a TEAM. If you're just looking at Dunn's numbers this year and thinking maybe he's worth 13M? Then you're not looking into this broadly enough..................

August was a robust .188 BA (and for you who won't look at anything but SLG and OBP... an equally horrific .284 OBP and .416 SLG) For good measure Dunners tossed in 39 Ks in 101 ABs for August. Not too shabby....

But stop the presses. It's September Baby. Reds making their final last ditch run for the playoffs. A check in on the Donkey?...

BA an unspeakable .145
OBP .337
SLG an impressive .264

Ok... so let's hear it?? It's a slump? yea.. right... But isn't he on the brink of his "peak years" ?? Isn't this the "franchise player"?

This is the most laughable fiasco is Cincinnati Reds baseball history. (oh yea and 36 Ks in 76 ABs for the month of September. 47% of his official ABs end in K)

I'm of the opinion that Dunn's career is on the downslide. Some will point to his age and say his "peak" years still lie ahead. I don't think so. But of all the things missing from Adam Dunn's baseball game (and the list is long)..... perhaps savvy is one of the most important and glaring......

savvy - "practical understanding; shrewdness or intelligence; common sense"

Dunn's game lacks intelligence. His game lacks gamesmanship. His game lacks shrewdness. I can imagine him gunslinging back in his grid iron days. But I doubt he was a Joe Montana.

When you have a hand in poker one strategy is to raise "a little". Send out an "invite" for others to call you... maybe even raise you. With Dunn there is no cat and mouse. Dunn swings at his pitches and tries to hit them over the fence. Period.

Muhammad Ali had the "rope a dope". Good football defenses "bend but don't break". With 2 outs a good pitcher might give 2 free bases on balls just to get to the hitter he wants to strikeout to end the inning and win the game.

Dunn doesn't swing at pitches that aren't strikes very often. Is that good? In one sense .... probably yes. However, in poker there are times you raise a not very good hand and cost yourself chips just so you can be in a better position to win lots of chips on a big hand later in the game.

Dunn has no such savvy. Suppose with a man on second (first base open) and one or two outs Dunn had the game to be aggressive on the first pitch...even the second pitch. Suppose he went down 0-1. Then maybe got in a hole 1-2. A pitcher may have been planning to pitch around the donkey but if he gets up on him 1-2 awfully tough to not take one or two more tries at getting the out. If Dunn had the game and the "smarts" he'd know what was coming and if he had the skill the result could be an opposite field double to drive in the run and put himself on second base.

Alas, you'll see no such savvy from Adam Dunn. Adam is a walkman. Adam is HR/K/BB.  You'll always feel like you have the short straw with Adam Dunn.

For those of you who buy into the "Dunn has no protection" myth or its because of the slot in the batting order that Dunn was horrid for 4 out of 6 months this year......

Have a look across the diamond at Lance Berkman. Berkman has had NOTHING hitting behind him all year but what did he do?  He put up a .311 avg., 122 RBIs, 40+ homers etc..... he has almost as many walks as dunn in far fewer games. He was no doubt pitched around all year but HE (because he's a "good hitter") found a way........

with "good hitters" it matters very little "where" they hit in order - they just hit. They hit all kinds of pitches, frequently to all fields and from any slot in batting order.

Fragile, overrated, overpaid slumping big swing guys can be derailed by a "rain delay" and need a month to get back on track...........

OVERRATED AND OVERPAID

To all of you defending Dunn and Dunn-type production and who see Dunn as a contributor to this Reds team..............

Try looking at Dunn "contributions" from the other direction. This player in question puts up the following numbers annually:

-Leads (or close to it) all outfielders in errors every year
-Leads the majors and sets new all time records in strikeouts every year
-hits sub-.250 every year
-has a lifetime BA with RISP which is ~.215
-doesn't run the bases well, doesn't steal bases

Those are things you can count on every day, every year with Dunn. So.... what type of "production" in homeruns and BBs would it take for you to put up with the above (which are all clearly BAD) ??

Remember Dunn BBs aren't the same as BBs to base stealers or table setters. And Remember close to 60% of Dunn homeruns are SOLOS (113 of 198).

If it was 25 homeruns and 75 BBs, surely that wouldn't be enough right? You all wouldnt put up with league leading error numbers and hitting struggles just for 25 HRs and 75 BBs would you?

So you who suppport Dunn are effetively saying the extra 15 homeruns and 25 BBs over the course of 162 game season is enough to sway you? Those extra 15 homeruns (9 of which will be solo) and 25 BBs are enough to endure all the bad that Dunn brings every night?

When you start with the things you get EVERY NIGHT from Dunn (bad defense, lots of Ks, low BA, no baserunning, low motor, questionable concentration/focus) it would take a whole lot more than 100 BBs and 40 HRs (mostly solos) for me to want to have him anywhere near the starting lineup every night especially as one of the team's HIGHEST PAID every day players.

And has for hoping that there is still "improvement" to his game yet to come?? He has had 6 years as a starter now. With his body type he has long since peaked physically he is on the downturn physically.  He hasn't improved any game component in first 6 years how can he be expected to improve now?

Two hitters both with 200 official ABs and no walks.

Player A: Hits 50 solo homeruns during the season but goes 0 for 150 with Runners in Scoring position.
Player B: Hits 0 homeruns but goes 50 for 150 with RISP with 50 singles. 0 for 50 in remaining ABs.

Not all Player B hits with RISP result in runs but most do and some of his hits drive in 2 runs. So for sake of example we assume Player A DRIVES IN 50 Runs (50 solo dingers) and Player B DRIVES IN 50 Runs also.

Both players "produce" 50 ACTUAL runs for their team but look at how their "stats" would differ.

Both players would have a .250 Batting Average (50 for 200) and a .250 OBP (50 for 200).

But look at their SLUGGING PCT. Player A would have a SLG of 1.000 Player B would have a SLG of .250

Player A OPS = 1.250
Player B OPS = .500

Something else very important, in each case with Player A, after his homerun bases are again empty. Rally effectively dead. After Player B drives in a run he is on first base and possibly teammates ahead of him on basepaths. Player A is effectively a "rally killing" influence with his outs with RISP and his homeruns but Player B keeps 50 rallies alive with his 50 singles and ends up on first base after his hit representing additional opportunity for TEAM to score MORE RUNS.

Player A and Player B both end up with 50 RBIs but their SLG is .750 apart.

In this example, BBs were left out of OBP but suppose you add to SLG a BB-driven OBP similar to a player like....say...Adam Dunn. You end up with a very healthy OPS. I think some of this is why a guy like Dunn can be an "OPS machine" but leave many of us feeling like he's just not worth it.

"A Logical Fallacy describes an error in reasoning that can lead you to a false conclusion."

One of the problems with saber heads and their reasoning about OPS (OBP + SLG) correlating with runs scored is the following:

And by the way this is CONCEPTUAL. Stat heads like to play the same games car salesman do when they ask you "What do you want your monthly payment to be?" Once you get a dollar amount you can then of course go through gyrations with numbers/formulas and beat it by 20 bucks to presumably get "the sale" (don't look at the down payment or years on loan though).......

As HORRIBLE as Dunn has been this year stat heads will say look at his OPS only Ross is higher. Then they will say OPS correlates with Run Scoring stronger than OBP, SLG or BA so the conclusion is simple - Ross hasn't played every daye, so Dunn has been the best offensive player on team.....(not really though).....

As a pitcher who would you rather walk? Ryan Freel or Adam Dunn? You'd rather walk Dunn.  Who is more likely to cause trouble on the bases and presumably more likely to score starting from first base? Freel or Dunn? Freel of course. Freel on first base is of much higher value to the team than Dunn but OBP awards them equal value.

Similarly, suppose you have two outs and bases empty. A pitcher now has in essence 3 free bags at his disposal to use to get ONE out. If he tries to get ahead with the first batter (Dunn for example) but doesn't, then he just walks him - no sweat.  That walk has NOWHERE NEAR the same value to the TEAM as a walk with no outs or a bases loaded walk, etc...etc... with Dunn on first and no risk of stealing second, the pitcher now still has 2 free bags at his disposal to get just ONE out. Again, he can pitch to get ahead, get batter to make a mistake....

In above situation, a homerun "threat" will be far more likely to pick up a tactical walk. It will count as a base for his OBP but it will be of far less value to team than a walk in other situations or to a different player.

If you've ever played Texas Hold 'em you know POSITION is everything.   A pair of fours has one value when you're on the button and a whole different value when you're first to play.

Trying to place a value on tactical walks is dicey and difficult. So what do the saber formulas do? They just dismiss the different values.  They dismiss the fact that walks have different values depending on player receiving walk or situation and treat them all as the same.....all comes out in the wash right? wrong

Ryan Freel walks will ALWAYS be of higher value than Adam Dunn walks. And Ryan Freel not being a homerun threat will always get fewer tactical walks based on situation/men on base/outs etc and his speed.......  

Furthermore, apart from a bases empty situation a walk will ALWAYS be of less value than a "single". Hits advance runners at least one base but maybe more and force defense to execute.  OBP treats singles and walks equally. OBP as a measure of value would say a player who received 100 walks had the same value to team as a player who had 100 singles. This couldn't be further from the truth.

Be wary of the slow "power hitter" with the high OBP - his OBP is artificially inflated. He is being given the open jump shot because the defense wants him to shoot. Check out the BA of a high OBP power hitter before making appraisal. If you see high OBP and relatively high BA (along with POWER) then you have a find. If you see OBP but peculiarly LOW BA....red flag it baby !!!

http://www.daytondailynews.com/search/content/oh/story/sports/reds/2006/09/07/ddn090706arch.html

So those who dismiss intangibles, dismiss team leaders, dismiss chemistry etc.... read the above article and then think about it. And think about the last time you were on a sports team....

<<<<<
Is resolve giving way to resignation?

Dunn shrugged at the questions: "I have no idea. We're just playing bad at the wrong time. There's nothing we can do. I guess we could take extra batting practice, but that's not really going to do anything ..."

But as he left the clubhouse, the big outfielder showed he was going to get some swings in.

He picked up the golf bag by his locker, slung it over his shoulder and, with clubs rattling, headed for the door.

Might as well start working on the game he'll be playing when the postseason starts.
>>>>>>>>

Dunn grew up on a street named after his family. Dunn grew up being told that don't worry about getting a job as long as you can play ball you'll be fine. Dunn himself has said he has read two books in his entire life.

In Dunn's world when adversity comes, Dunn grabs the golf clubs. That got him to where he is today presumably............

But again, noone else on this Reds team will ever hit a ball into the river. I doubt anyone else on this Reds team grew up on a street named after its family.  

If Dunn was just an afterthought "member" of this team it wouldn't be a problem. But by virtue of his personality, charisma, SALARY, role on team ... Dunn is one of the leaders of this team. And if noone else steps up than by default he and Griffey are THE leaders.

When your LEADERS are grabbing the golf clubs in early September this is not a good thing - particularly when you're headed to the links as leader in baseball in strikeouts, leader in baseball for errors for outfielders, hitting ~.230 with RISP and .240 on the year.....

Yes, this team's pitching has been a big problem for 5+ years but this is illustrative of how a more subtle problem has existed and still exists with this team.  This everyday player mix is still not right and there are some individuals who have had plenty of chances...... and not raised their game and still not provided the leadership or onfield contributions that a baseball team needs from its highest paid players.

After Dunn's July, folks in this forum and others were all George Grande giddy about Dunn and his new lighter bat, his shorter swing, his new approach (??)....etc..etc....

Me and a few other cranky strikeout haters went on record that we were not witnessing a Dunn rebirth. Instead we maintained that we were only witnessing a Dunn hot streak which we have seen plenty of times before (unfortunately most always followed by a Dunn cold streak of at least equal duration and intensity).

By the numbers.... how did Dunn follow up his hot July? In August.....

-Dunn hit a lofty .188 with 39 Ks in 101 ABs (39% K rate)
-His OBP was a weak .284 and SLG a weak .416

The past 4 months Dunn has hit
May .212
June .221
July .354
Aug  .188 (could have been .158 if not for 3 hits off soft tossing hendrickson the other night)

Some of you are the same folks who say Dunn is no Kingman or Deer, based on the last 4 months.... if not Kingman/Deer than who?

So please, to quote JD in a recent one of his "diaries" ... "admitting you have a problem is the first step"... who is ready to come clean? Who is ready to come to the other side?

This is a player Reds are slated to pay 10+ million to next year - roughly one sixth of their entire payroll. This is a player who has NOT improved one iota in any part of his game in 6 years.  His struggles now are the exact same as his first year in the bigs.  Are any of you still prepared to take the position that Adam Dunn is a good fit for the Cincinnati Reds going forward?

Reds have Hopper, Denorfia, soon Bruce (I'll leave out Hollandsworth) and probably others slightly lower profile or easily obtainable all either waiting in the wings or easily available as substitutes.  Isn't pitching still priority #1? Wouldn't 10 million buy a little extra pitching?

Who is ready to go on record? Who is ready to admit Dunn just isn't developing? Who is ready to join me in advocating that Dunn be traded ASAP?

Well let's first list a handful and then look for some common ground.  

Tom Brady       George Brett     Larry Bird
Dwayne Wade     Derrick Brooks   Johnny Bench
Steve Nash      Albert Pujols    Roberto Clemente
Derek Jeter     Magic Johnson    Jackie Robinson
Pete Rose       Michael Jordan   Joe Montana

Above are some No Brainers. One thing they all have in common is "smarts". Look at all of them they can all speak, think, orchestrate. They are all smart/confident.

What else? None are physical "freaks". Most all of them have physiques not uncommon in their sports of choice. They aren't athletes who separate themselves because of their statures.

Excitability, Passion, Urgency, .... You can picture highlights of all of these players in the heat of moments exuding intensity.

SKILL. These players aren't sliding by on an ability to jump high, throw far, run fast.....they may be able to do all of those but they are also craftsman. They are skilled. They put in the time. They honed their crafts.

- - - - - - - - - - -

Now let's look at our current Reds team by way of its highest paid players, its "presumed" leaders ie Ken Griffey, Adam Dunn, Eric Milton. What's wrong with THIS picture? Griff may have had the above attributes in his day but this is twilight Ken Griffey Jr. we see now.

Are there leader/high value player types on this team?? perhaps?.... maybe Phillips one day? Freel? .... not many.....

One thing is for sure, with a 60 million dollar payroll you need to pick the guys you pay big money to VERY CAREFULLY.  Griffey, a nice idea which didn't turn out all that great.  Dunn and Milton, bad spending !!!  Those guys should have been gone a long time ago.

Sure it would be fun to see the Reds hang on.  But this team still has some serious fundamental problems. Unlikely........

Ok. I'll be perfectly honest. I can't be totally objective on this. I have years of anger at some of the choices made by the Reds regarding their choices of players, style of play etc. However, I have played and watched sports all my life. I know how it "feels" to be on a team and I know what a big part "momentum" plays in sports and I know how "contagious" things can be in a lineup, on a team, in a game. I have played on teams with "star players", I have been something of a "star player" (ahem) - this team chemistry stuff is not new to me as a spectator or participant........

Last night just might be a very pivotal night for this team. It took a little bit of guts (not that much) for Narron to bench (ahem..."rest") the donkey. You can bet the donkey wasn't asking for a rest and you can bet he didn't like it. However, with eight strikeouts in his last nine ABs and up against a lefty...well...you can certainly make a case for it.

There's no taking away the run production Dunn can bring to a team "when" he's hot (see July). But see May and June and the start of August for the flip side.

What you saw last night with the Reds was a team that no way was going to be able to sit around and wait for homeruns (no Kearns, no Dunn, slumping Griff).  You also saw the addition of a scrappy and solid fielding Denorfia.

Without ABs from Pena, Kearns, Dunn, Griffey (slumping) this offense has an entirely different feel to it !! Furthermore, I'll argue that games take on a whole different feel because rather than Reds turning every game into homerun derby as they have in recent years, last night you had the Reds playing for a run or two at a time.

Would a lineup like last night yield less runs night in and night out than we have seen in recent years?? Undeniably Yes.  However, would a lineup like last night also likely lead to fewer runs by the opposition? I would submit equally confidently and undeniable...... Yes.

And what some of you will call a stretch, a lineup like last night would make the Reds pitching staff look a whole lot better night in and night out.  

If I shoot a 3 pointer, you shoot one to retaliate (if you can). If you're going to haymaker/roundhouse punch me and turn bout into a brawl well I might just respond in kind. If you're going to try to score runs in bunches with HRs well you know what I'm not playing for one run !!  Yes GABP is clearly a hitters park but it is the Reds style of play in recent years which has also contributed to turning games into slugfests more often than not.

No doubt Narron saw some of this last night too - and felt it !!  I don't expect Dunn to be benched again tonite and "maybe" he shouldn't?? But circle last night on the schedule.  I think Narron, Krivsky et al likely saw/felt some important differences last night just like I did. Maybe a player like Dunn felt it too?? Maybe?...........

It occurred to me while watching 90 minutes of sport end in a 0-0 tie and along the way seeing players flopping/faking injuries and an overall "lack of execution" that Soccer is sort of like Adam Dunn.

Don't get me wrong, I like soccer. It has the simplicity of basketball. It spans cultures, ages. It is continuous play and doesn't lend itself to George Grande interrupting a pause with a Domino's 5 for 5 special or shilling for Skyline Chilli.

Part of what plagues soccer however is much like what plagues Adam Dunn - the little things. There's nothing wrong with the premise of soccer. And Dunn is certainly fundamentally a fine "athlete" if not a fine "baseball player".

However, the game of soccer is screaming for some small rule changes which if implemented could take it from a "club sport" and an "event sport" enjoyed abroad to a sport which could truly capture the attention/interest of fans of all types.  Whether basketball, hockey, soccer etc...the basis of defense is the defender staying between the man/ball and the goal. The off sides rule in soccer pretty much guarantees this will always be the case.  Something needs to be tweaked here with this rule to equal out the unfair advantage given to the defense in soccer.

Furthermore, the soccer athletes have "skills" but just not to the level that they can consistently execute/demonstrate those skills when under pressure from defenders in a game skewed to favor the defense. Something needs to be done to create the space and better angles for offensive players to allow them to show their stuff to the fans and actually get the ball in the goal once in a while.

At present, when all is said and done a game of soccer can often be summarized as 90 minutes of unsuccessful scoring chances, good ideas unrealized, near misses, close but no cigars, passes too long, shots too wide or too high...etc...etc..

It wouldn't take dramatic re-engineering to make a few rule/game changes to soccer which would result in a game that could easily be embraced by fans. Instead of counting "touches" and using "touches" as a statistic, at the end of a game you would actually have "scorers", players with "assists" etc...etc..... Soccer, however, has resisted change for years.  The standard reply is that there is nothing wrong with the game. In fact it is the "most popular" game in the world people will tell you. And of course it is.  However, remember think of the context here. How many African nations (for example) can you think of that can afford to support football/baseball teams or build gymnasiums for basketball?

"There is nothing wrong with Adam Dunn" his fans will tell you. But much like soccer, watch him with an honest/objective eye and you'll see the absurdity of that statement.

Recently I read someone pumping up Dunn with his 1 HR per ~11 ABs stat and making the statement that effectively you can count on Dunn for a homerun every series.  On the surface, you might think "wow". He is some player but look a little deeper........

Dunn has 7 errors in the outfield this year. He also has a double digit number of "misplays" in the outfield which haven't shown up as errors. For a while I counted those misplays but I quit when I was about to run out of fingers.  Add misplays to errors and for comparison sake it's pretty accurate to say that Dunn's homeruns and his outfield "fumbles" (either error or misplay) are close to equal.  Much like his "homeruns" you can pretty much count on Dunn to average one bad play in the outfield every series.

Now remember there is a 65% chance that Dunn's homerun will be a "solo", are you willing to take that deal?  Fielding problems in the outfield can result in significant swings in runs. They are often 2 base errors and extend innings......

Then with Dunn we have the low BA, the RISP, the strikeout issues.... all of those to the naked eye it would seem only require some adjustments to the "little things".  However, much like with soccer, I wouldn't hold your breath for any changes to come any time soon.................

haven't done one of these in a while...let's have a look... by the way, if you missed last night's game thread I am on record a/o 9:09 pm predicting Dunn to get the pine tonite.

career totals projected as a 162 game season:

BA
Dunn .248
Kingman .236  
Both very bad ... call it a wash.... guys probably hit for slightly better avg. in today's game but either way both bad...wash.....

Strikeouts
Dunn  180
Kingman  152
As with BA, both bad and close to a wash.  However, Dunn truly is the new strikeout King. Kingman's high year was 156.  Dunn has surpassed that 3 times already.  Slight nod to Dunn. It wouldn't be fair to Dunn to not give him credit for a 180/yr avg.

Walks
Dunn  113
Kingman  51
Kingman played in an era where hitters reluctantly took their walks they didn't seek them out and skip and dance their way out of batter's box after receiving one. Years ago, unless you were Joe Morgan and were going to swap 50+ bases guys didn't wear walk totals as a badge of honor.  Nonetheless, Dunn gets the nod here for BB-inflating is OBP.

RBIs
Dunn  92
Kingman  101
Neither of these guys were great with driving in people other than themselves. I'd find it hard to believe that Kingman ever went a month without driving in a teammate but hey if Dunn can do it? I guess it's possible...call it a wash.....

HRs
Dunn  39
Kingman  37
This is an easy one. We'll give Dunn the benefit of the doubt and call this a wash. I suspect if accurately era-adjusted for "homerun hitters" of the 70s/80s vs. the 2000s, Kingman would come out on top but either way ... close enough for this far from low level comparison...call it a wash.....

Doubles
Dunn 31
Kingman  20
Gotta give the donkey the nod here. Although, based on his 6 doubles so far this year he is trending in the wrong direction.

Runs
This has pretty much already been addressed with above categories.  They hit for similar avg, similar number of homers but Dunn walks and hits more doubles so yes, Dunn scores more runs.... but this is double counting to count it as a whole separate bucket..................NA......

Stolen Bases
hahhaahaha....wash.....

Fielding
I'd be tempted to call this a wash and probably should but......how do you call anyone the "equal" of Dunn with the glove? Dunn is horrific in LF and maybe even more horrific at first base?.....ok....call it a wash...............

So 8 categories,
5 of them are a wash
Dunn wins Doubles and BBs
Kingman gets edge for his "relatively" better ability to make contact

No they're not the exact same player but they're pretty close.  And judging by the direction Dunn is headed they are likely to grow even closer...............

I heard an interview with a AAA umpire this morning. I don't imagine this is a particularly controversial or conversational topic but I found it very surprising.

The umpire talked a little about how he ended up becoming an umpire (couldn't hit a curve ball). Maybe we'll see Brandon Larson umpiring in a few years? He said he wanted to stay in the game and umpiring was his way to do that.

Then he got to the topic he was promoting a bit. He was getting the word out to some extent about the compensation umpires receive in the minor leagues. He went on to be specific about what he earned last year as a full time AAA umpire. Anyone care to guess? (hint: guess LOW)....

He said his per diem was 25 bucks a day.  And their pay was 2700/month.  He said his w2 for last year was ~13,500.  Yikes.  

I didn't have my pad and paper so just my mental notes.....<insert wisecrack>..........

I laughed out loud when I walked up the ramp and caught first glimpse of players and field. Take a guess who WMP was playing catch with in warmups? You guessed it, Manny Ramirez.

It couldn't get much better than that but also I found amusing to see WMP trot out to "right" field realizing that there was probably only one left fielder in baseball more worthy of "left field" then WMP, Of course again, Manny Ramirez.

They hit WMP behind Manny in the lineup. I can't help but think Boston is thinking "now watch him WMP...... watch what Manny does, and do it"....

When WMP came to bat the first time, they played "Welcome Back Kotter over PA"....

Ken Griffey Sr. was in attendance. People are shameless what they will do in pursuit of an autograph.

Buchanan is the reincarnation of Rob Stratton so it seems. He is a large guy.

I got to see a representative night from two of my favorites Dunn and EE.  Dunn walked, struck out and gripped and ripped a ball to "right" field....(only for a single though)...  EE went down swinging twice gripped/ripped a yank down third baseline for a double and then left side of the field popout/flyout to "left".  EE also came with an inch of a throwing error to first base.

It was the largest crowd in "Reds" Ed Smith Stadium history.  And second largest crowd in Ed Smith history, something like 7600 people...

Manny Ramirez homered leading off the second with a ball that is likely just now rolling to a stop.

Williams wasn't much to see in person - pretty unassuming. Of course, not that this means a heck of alot ... just nothing very memorable.....

Freel stole third. He was still in lineup after all the other starters were long since showered and headed home. Couldn't help but think they are trying to get him right as practice games become fewer and fewer....he hit the ball on the nose at least a couple times I know....

Marty B. was in attendance and appeared to get a kick out of the "Harry Canary" over-sized, costumed figure who sang for 7th inning stretch then walked around stadium.

Fun was had by all. Reds win.  There you have it.

I wouldn't not yet.

It's quite possible the best part of the 2006 season has already happened. Castellini et al have taken over and appear to be just what is needed. DannyO is gone, Kriv is in. We'll see how Kriv does over time. But it looks like Kriv has a chance to be pretty good.

Now for this team. Unbelievable. Too early to hammer/blame Kriv for the roster but somebody should be taking a lethal injection for it.

First and foremost, I'd venture even Vince Young would grasp that something is wrong when you have a game like baseball which is so heavily reliant on pitching and you are paying close to a third of your payroll on an oft-injured, aging star and 1b/Lf homerun-strikeout man.  If Kriv watched the games the last two days he got his first taste of what reds fans have seen from adam dunn for 5 years. He follows an HR/2B Friday up with an 0-5 with 4 strikeouts Saturday and Sunday.

For the nth year in a row Reds are banking on pretty much the same pitchers to magically somehow some way become much better pitchers one year removed from being craaaappppy pitchers.

You can pay 2 million/year and get an 80 RBI, 80 Run .280 hitting player to replace Dunn. You'd free up 14 million over the next two years to spend on pitching plus whatever pitching prospects you could obtain for Dunn.

Griff we pretty much just have to live with. Dunn we don't.  

I could have driven 20 miles to catch the Johnson v. Harang matchup.  I could have driven 60 miles today to see the Rays v. Reds matchup in Sarasota. But with the price of gas these days and being that I don't like bridges too much I just didn't really see the payoff.

Reds play Toronto in Dunedin Tuesday. Ten minutes of gas? no bridges....I "may" get my first look Tuesday.

Let's take a closer look at Dunn's "phenomenal" 100 RBI and 100 Runs season.

In a game of ERAs, OBPs, BAs, Fld pct.s etc..etc ...it is clear player appraisal is typically based more on "rate" than cumulative numbers - assuming a player has a minimum number of chances.

How does Dunn's rbi rate and run rate compare to teammates? Let's take quick/dirty look....for RBIs, noone except Griffey batted in as preferable a slot in order for accumulating RBIs this year as Dunn however, look at some of Dunn's teammates when you extrapolate their rbi totals to Dunn's number of PAs.

Kearns 102 RBIs (and we know how rough he was this year)
LaRue 98 RBIs
Pena 101 RBIs
Valentin 131 RBIs
Griffey 111 RBIs
Aurilia 96 RBIs

How about Runs?
Lopez 100 Runs
Griffey 102 Runs
Kearns 94 Runs (and again we know how rough Kearns was this year)
Freel 108 Runs
Valentin 94 Runs

So when it comes to runs batted in there are 6 other reds with comparable rbi rates despite batting in less optimal rbi slots in the order.

When it comes to runs, 5 others project to 90+ runs had they the number of PAs Dunn had.

DO WE PAY ALL THESE GUYS 8 MILLION AND SIGN THEM ALL TO A LONG TERM CONTRACT??

Dunn's type of productivity is no great find on this team or anywhere in baseball.  Plenty of guys on this team (who make far less money) are capable of giving equal or better contributions. So dunn stays healthy how big a benefit is that? It allows him enough innings to annually be amongst league leaders in errors for his positions(s) and lead league in strikeouts.  

This is no superstar. This is a guy who stayed healthy enough to play entire season in a hitter friendly ballpark in a lineup which led league in numerous offensive categories and he was given optimal run producing slot in batting order for much of the year.

Reds need to funnel all available and excess money towards pitching. Paying dunn high $$$ for a production rate which is already readily available on this team is a mistake.

I don't understand. How is it that the Texas Rangers can be approaching a record number of homeruns (259) - 43 more team homeruns than our beloved GABP Reds but the Rangers have only struck out 1083 times compared to the Reds 1275?? almost 200 less ! !

How is that possible. The Redszone says strikeouts are good because they mean homeruns. Don't the Rangers know this?

Is it possible that we got zapped? You mean we don't have to settle for hitters who strike out 5 times for every homerun they hit? As Lance MCalister would say "WOW".

Not only that but their team batting avg. is 7 points higher, they slug 24 points higher, they even have scored 50 more runs.  Their OBP is lower though. I wonder if that means their power hitters don't get excited and skip down to first base when they draw an open base or two out walk to raise their personal OBP/OPS?  Again, WOW.

Does anyone have Dan O'Brien's or Jerry Narron's phone number? I think I'd like to give them a heads up.

Well actually I must share this with Marty too.

I used to always say Dunn's hot streaks are always followed by deathly north pole-like cold streaks. Then one day I heard Marty state a bit more eloquently that Dunn's hot streaks (quoting loosely) are "always followed by cold streaks of equal or longer duration and of equal or greater intensity".

I direct you to Dunn and his "Player of the Month" honors in July. What comes next? Take a stroll down the game by game log for August and September. I'll summarize for you:

August
.233 Batting Average 4 HRs

September
.239 Batting Average 2 HRs

sigh......................

Tiger Woods gets reputation for coming up big in majors, charging strong on back nines and being unbeatable with leads etc.. etc...

We all know reputation of Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady. Or on flip side Rob Johnson or Chris Rix.

Anyone who follows tennis has watched matches where a final score was 6-3, 6-4 but the reality was that the match was never close.  Important game/set points always went to the victor.

Witness the domination of Roger Federer in recent years. Does he have hardest serve? no. Does he lead in all statistical categories? (unforced errors, winners, double faults etc..) no. However, he has dominated to an extent some are arguing he is the greatest ever.

How about Reggie Miller? Michael Jordan? The guy who sits at foul line with no time left on clock and makes 3 in a row vs. guy who bricks the first one off the backboard?
-----------------------------------

I have heard it contended that "clutch" doesn't exist in baseball. Some argue it is one of those things that is talked about but doesn't exist. You hear "the statistical evidence doesn't support" its existence or something along those lines etc... etc.....

So I ask which is more of a stretch?  That "clutch" and/or an intangible "winning edge" does in fact exist in baseball but is just difficult to quantify because in baseball it can be so subtle and difficult to accurately identify/measure? Or..... that all the other major sports (both individual and team) clearly have clutch players/performances but baseball is the exception? baseball does not?  Which is more of a stretch?

Heck not even just sports. Entire books are written on the subject of pressure performance. There are theories, mantras, guidelines, practice techniques etc.. etc.. for performing well under pressure for all types of people.  Musicians, surgeons, actors  - people in all walks life recognize the existence of "pressure" in different forms and in different degrees but baseball players don't?

Sweaty palms, increased heartbeat, overthinking, confidence, choking...... exist everywhere in life except on a baseball field??

Link to this is posted at bottom but figured I'd just paste it in for convenience. Impressive Numbers and check this out: "double major in Hispanic Studies and International Relations" that wouldn't hurt one bit with baseball's mix of guys from different countries. Possibly some leadership potential?

Chris Denorfia taken in the 19th round of the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft by the Cincinnati Reds

June 8, 2002

NORTON, MA- Wheaton College senior outfielder Chris Denorfia (Southington, CT/Choate-Rosemary School) became the first baseball player in the brief five-year existence of the varsity program to be taken in the Major League Baseball amateur draft, as he was selected in the 19th round by the Cincinnati Reds of the National League.

Denorfia will report to rookie orientation in Sarasota, Florida and then is expected to play for either the Gulf Coast League Reds in Sarasota or Billings Mustangs in Montana, both of which are rookie affiliates of the Cincinnati Reds. This announcement capped a great week for the 6' 1", 185-pound Denorfia. On Thursday, May 30, he earned a starting role in the New England Intercollegiate Baseball Coaches Association (NEIBCA) All-Star game at Fenway Park.

He was one of only three outfielders in the nation selected to the 2002 American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) NCAA Division III All-America first team. Finishing his college career with a .403 batting average, 264 hits, 182 runs and 168 RBI in 169 games, Denorfia was also named to the All-New England first team, the New England Regional All-Tournament team, an Eastern College Athletic Conference (ECAC) All-Star and New England Women's and Men's Athletic Conference (NEWMAC) Player of the Year.

Denorfia paced the Lyons in several categories this spring, including hits (85), runs scored (58), stolen bases (34) and a national ranking in batting average (.457). He was also second on the team in RBI (62), homeruns (7), triples (5) and doubles (17). Denorfia shattered Wheaton's single-season marks in batting average, hits, runs scored, stolen bases and total bases (133). Practically rewriting the career record book, he holds one of the top two marks in every major statistical category with the exception of walks, where he currently stands third overall.

A double major in Hispanic Studies and International Relations where he posted an impressive 3.29 grade point average, Denorfia helped the Lyons make history with an astounding 37-9-1 record. Wheaton reached its first New England Regional championship game in addition to qualifying for its third straight appearance in the NCAA Division III Tournament.

Earning their fifth consecutive postseason appearance overall, the Lyons won their conference tournament title for the fourth time in the NEWMAC,s four-year existence, while also finishing as regular season champions for the fourth season. Ranked seventh in the country and second in New England this season, Denorfia has been a part of one of the nation's elite programs that has registered an overall record of 124-46-1 (.728) in the last four years.

Honored as a three-time All-New England selection and All-NEWMAC choice over his illustrious career, Denorfia also played for the Manchester Silkworms of the New England Collegiate Baseball League (NECBL), where he was named to the All-Star team in each of the last two summers.

http://www.wheatonma.edu/Athletics/baseball/News/pr20020608a.html

This is getting comical. I'm just a working stiff computer grunt. I don't have a Dan O'Brien expense account and no chief Bender scout of the year awards etc......but I saw this EE hitting struggles from a mile away - AND it was NOT something that had to be worked out at mlb level.

We've seen it with Larson, Dunn, Pena (and others those 3 just happened to be the most visible, recent and best examples.) and now EE .............

Just because you can put up some numbers in the minors if you have shortcomings with basic hitting fundamentals those will more than likely be exposed at major league level. How many dead pull "power" hitters will we have to see brought up to the bigs only to see their numbers fall off considerably because THEY DON'T USE THE WHOLE FIELD ? ? ? ? CINCINNATI - - -  HAVEN FOR DEAD PULL HITTERS.......

Look EE may become a solid major leaguer. There have been plenty of third baseman who have done worse than 9 errors in first 43 games and hit every bit as badly as his .220s batting avg. and ultimately turned it around.  However, you could see this coming from a mile away ! ! !  Just like Pena did, just like Larson.....EE has a relatively big right handed dead pull swing. Major league pitchers sniff it out the first time they see him and give him steady diet of breaking pitches away, bust him with heat and outside corner heat.. etc .... - pitches he can't handle with his swing.

In the majors (particularly right handed hitters), if you can't or don't use the opposite field you might as well only get two strikes - pitchers have a head start from the time you step in the box.

It was a mistake to move Randa. He was a guy who could have held down the third base spot for a few more years with solid play, leadership and for an affordable price.
- - - - - - -

FINALLY, Chris Denorfia..... a right handed hitter who clearly has the stroke to use whole field. I'm guessing more just dumb luck and numbers catching up than O'Brien et al realizing that a hitter of his type has a much better chance of being successful at mlb level with what he does than the Larsons/Encarnacions....(sigh).......

Here are a few photos of Jay Bruce et al from Saturday's GCL Reds v Twins. You'll note your chances are pretty good at getting a foul ball at these games....

http://www24.brinkster.com/michb/baseball/photos.asp

No scoreboard, no tickets, no concessions. Watching these games you're struck by all of what is going on beneath the surface. Because frankly on the surface not much is going on. You note the number of dominican et al players. You think for a moment about what their journey was to now arrive in Sarasota, FL. You wonder for a minute what the fields were like where they played as they learned the game.

You notice the "youth" of the players. You can't help thinking of your own high school, legion days. You note only two umpires. Once a runner is on, first base umpire moves between second and pitcher just like back in little league.

You think for a minute about the turnstile nature of a team like this. You have to think either a player does well and soon moves up to the next level or if he doesn't do well you have to think there is another group of young hopefuls waiting for their chance to wear that jersey for a summer.

Again, you note how empty the stands are. You rememember just like high school baseball games - It was always football and basketball that drew the crowds.

Then you see young Jay Bruce with his huge signing bonus mixing with the other players. You can't help wondering about the contrasting pay levels of guys on field.

Crack of bat takes you out of daydreaming. Coach screams to runner to take wide turn and break down after rounding first despite the fact that there is no way hit will be anything but single. For a minute you look at the coach and think what is he in it for? After a while you relax and enjoy a little baseball.........

Chris Booker......... unbelievable.

When was the last time the Reds had a reliever at any level punchout 59 in 43 innings? Especially if you factor in the 27 hits in 43 innings, we're talking back to the Nasty Boys days......

ok, 20 BBs in 43 innings is a little higher than you'd like but when he's only giving up 27 hits I think you can live with the walks.

Based on his minor league career http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/chris_booker.shtml  appears he has always struggled with control but has also always been tough to hit and always struckout alot. There must be another downside to this guy or how else could he be in the Reds minor leagues right now? What is it? off the field police blotter stuff? drug suspensions? illegal alien?

Dunn is a 7 footer hanging out beyond the 3 point line launching 3s. He may put up his INDIVIDUAL 20+ points but what about the team?

His role on TEAM is to hit the boards, provide inside presence, pass to other open players when he is doubled down on etc......but instead he is hanging outside playing JJ Redick-Ball.

So if he is launching 3s who is providing inside presence? That means you either get no inside presence or you have to run another 7 footer out there to do what Dunn isn't doing. How many teams can afford($$) two 7 footers? And what would you give up defensively and in other areas of game if you have two unathletic 7 footers on court at same time?

Also, what are your 6 footers doing if your 7 footer is taking the shots they would otherwise be taking?

Trading Dunn/Getting him out of lineup would be addition by subtraction for the TEAM.