SB Nation User Blog: MichaelRed

JohErardi's RISP Column... Uninformed flat out Gibberish

MichaelRed — Mon, 30 Jul 2007 02:33:04 -0000

news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070729/SPT04/707290354

I'll summarize the column by quoting Erardi's conclusion "Turns out, it (RISP) means almost nothing." and citing the two primary points which lead him to his conclusion:
-"For a career, most batters hit within a few points of their overall average with RISP." and
-"The NL overall batting average is .261; with RISP, it's .260."

How's that for third grade thinking?

And Based on Erardi's other columns, "The case for Keeping Adam Dunn" and "Trade Arroyo, Keep Dunn" it's not hard to figure out where he's coming from with all this mess and what he hopes to accomplish.

I won't fact check Erardi, I'll assume his two facts are correct - that "most" batters do hit near their overall avg. with RISP and that the league overall and RISP averages are usually fairly close. HOWEVER, in the context of the CINCINNATI REDS and ADAM DUNN those facts MEAN NOTHING.

Adam Dunn is NOT "most" batters. ADAM DUNN IS and has been the cleanup or 3/5 hole hitter on this team for years. His batting avg. with RISP is consistently ~30 points BELOW an already RELATIVELY LOW batting average. The whole construct of major league batting orders is to get top of the order hitters on base and in scoring position so 3/4/5/6/7 hole hitters can drive those runners in. To the CINCINNATI REDS it makes no difference what league averages or "most" hitters do. What matters to the CINCINNATI REDS is what Cincinnati Reds hitters do and when the Reds arguably most important rbi guy in the lineup with RISP is CONSISTENTLY ~30 points below an already low Batting Average this is a problem ! These are opportunities LOST............stranded Runners... defense, pitching and TIMELY hitting are the age old components of WINNING Baseball. A big part of "timely" hitting is hitting with RISP.

What makes up an "average" John Erardi? Well, typically a certain number of "entities/trials" which are on or near the average, another group which are above, and another group which lie BELOW......... when one of the Cincinnati Reds key RBI guys year after year is BELOW average this is a problem. 7 years of RISP struggles !!! Your line of thinking Erardi is wait 7 more years for the Law of Averages to kick in for Adam?? ... ?.....not going to happen...........

More likely John Erardi, not being able to hit with RISP is an attribute of Adam Dunn. It is an attribute which has its roots in his bad hitting fundamentals, feast/famine approach and inability to situationally/technically adjust as a hitter. These are qualities of Adam Dunn which show no signs of changing. These are some of the things that make Adam NOT "most" batters..............and NOT in a good way.........more likely Adam Dunn will continue to struggle with RISP for the next 7 years and some other hitter in baseball on the Cardinals, Red Sox or Yankees will continue to hit with RISP above his already fairly good batting average. This is how "averages" work John. Problem is the Reds are on the wrong end of all this courtesy of Adam Dunn (for one).

I don't know who you are John Erardi but I do know your steps for reaching a conclusion are suspect and that you don't know baseball.

Jay Bruce to take his cues from Adam Dunn?

MichaelRed — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 14:31:51 -0000

The spillover/collateral damage of Adam Dunn....

When Jay Bruce arrives on the scene do you want Adam Dunn to be the one to take Bruce "under his wing"? Do you want Jay Bruce to take his cues from Dunn?

When they arrive in Sarasota next spring do you want Jay Bruce to join Dunn for a couple rounds of golf on Sundays? Go fishing down at Siesta Key? Toss down beers and talk Texas at the Dacquiri Deck? Is this what will serve Jay Bruce best in his development as a BASEBALL PLAYER??

Yes, these things don't show up in an OPS or RC number but they show up in the standings.

Will Adam Dunn tell Bruce stories of how when he first came up to the majors he had trouble with strikeouts, fielding, hitting the better pitchers, over-eating but through HARD WORK, focused off season drills, winter ball, treadmill he transformed himself into a more rounded, versatile baseball player?? Through a committment to doing whatever it takes he overcame those obstacles? Ummmm no, don't think any of those stories will be coming out of Dunn's mouth.......................

For years now the individual players on this team have NOT had a "whatever it takes" attitude and the team as a whole hasn't either. When you look to what is the root source for the collective attitude of a team look no further than the team's most charismatic, visible, influential, powerful players........in the Reds case, look to Adam Dunn.

Sure the bullpen blows but it is the everyday players that more times than not are the source of the personality of a TEAM. If you're just looking at Dunn's numbers this year and thinking maybe he's worth 13M? Then you're not looking into this broadly enough..................

You thought It couldn't get any worse for Dunn than August? Welcome to September

MichaelRed — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 03:17:03 -0000

August was a robust .188 BA (and for you who won't look at anything but SLG and OBP... an equally horrific .284 OBP and .416 SLG) For good measure Dunners tossed in 39 Ks in 101 ABs for August. Not too shabby....

But stop the presses. It's September Baby. Reds making their final last ditch run for the playoffs. A check in on the Donkey?...

BA an unspeakable .145
OBP .337
SLG an impressive .264

Ok... so let's hear it?? It's a slump? yea.. right... But isn't he on the brink of his "peak years" ?? Isn't this the "franchise player"?

This is the most laughable fiasco is Cincinnati Reds baseball history. (oh yea and 36 Ks in 76 ABs for the month of September. 47% of his official ABs end in K)

Adam Dunn Lacks Savvy

MichaelRed — Fri, 22 Sep 2006 17:53:57 -0000

I'm of the opinion that Dunn's career is on the downslide. Some will point to his age and say his "peak" years still lie ahead. I don't think so. But of all the things missing from Adam Dunn's baseball game (and the list is long)..... perhaps savvy is one of the most important and glaring......

savvy - "practical understanding; shrewdness or intelligence; common sense"

Dunn's game lacks intelligence. His game lacks gamesmanship. His game lacks shrewdness. I can imagine him gunslinging back in his grid iron days. But I doubt he was a Joe Montana.

When you have a hand in poker one strategy is to raise "a little". Send out an "invite" for others to call you... maybe even raise you. With Dunn there is no cat and mouse. Dunn swings at his pitches and tries to hit them over the fence. Period.

Muhammad Ali had the "rope a dope". Good football defenses "bend but don't break". With 2 outs a good pitcher might give 2 free bases on balls just to get to the hitter he wants to strikeout to end the inning and win the game.

Dunn doesn't swing at pitches that aren't strikes very often. Is that good? In one sense .... probably yes. However, in poker there are times you raise a not very good hand and cost yourself chips just so you can be in a better position to win lots of chips on a big hand later in the game.

Dunn has no such savvy. Suppose with a man on second (first base open) and one or two outs Dunn had the game to be aggressive on the first pitch...even the second pitch. Suppose he went down 0-1. Then maybe got in a hole 1-2. A pitcher may have been planning to pitch around the donkey but if he gets up on him 1-2 awfully tough to not take one or two more tries at getting the out. If Dunn had the game and the "smarts" he'd know what was coming and if he had the skill the result could be an opposite field double to drive in the run and put himself on second base.

Alas, you'll see no such savvy from Adam Dunn. Adam is a walkman. Adam is HR/K/BB. You'll always feel like you have the short straw with Adam Dunn.

The Dunn has "No Protection" MYTH

MichaelRed — Tue, 19 Sep 2006 02:11:56 -0000

For those of you who buy into the "Dunn has no protection" myth or its because of the slot in the batting order that Dunn was horrid for 4 out of 6 months this year......

Have a look across the diamond at Lance Berkman. Berkman has had NOTHING hitting behind him all year but what did he do? He put up a .311 avg., 122 RBIs, 40+ homers etc..... he has almost as many walks as dunn in far fewer games. He was no doubt pitched around all year but HE (because he's a "good hitter") found a way........

with "good hitters" it matters very little "where" they hit in order - they just hit. They hit all kinds of pitches, frequently to all fields and from any slot in batting order.

Fragile, overrated, overpaid slumping big swing guys can be derailed by a "rain delay" and need a month to get back on track...........

OVERRATED AND OVERPAID

Try Evaluating Adam Dunn from this Perspective

MichaelRed — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 13:27:00 -0000

To all of you defending Dunn and Dunn-type production and who see Dunn as a contributor to this Reds team..............

Try looking at Dunn "contributions" from the other direction. This player in question puts up the following numbers annually:

-Leads (or close to it) all outfielders in errors every year
-Leads the majors and sets new all time records in strikeouts every year
-hits sub-.250 every year
-has a lifetime BA with RISP which is ~.215
-doesn't run the bases well, doesn't steal bases

Those are things you can count on every day, every year with Dunn. So.... what type of "production" in homeruns and BBs would it take for you to put up with the above (which are all clearly BAD) ??

Remember Dunn BBs aren't the same as BBs to base stealers or table setters. And Remember close to 60% of Dunn homeruns are SOLOS (113 of 198).

If it was 25 homeruns and 75 BBs, surely that wouldn't be enough right? You all wouldnt put up with league leading error numbers and hitting struggles just for 25 HRs and 75 BBs would you?

So you who suppport Dunn are effetively saying the extra 15 homeruns and 25 BBs over the course of 162 game season is enough to sway you? Those extra 15 homeruns (9 of which will be solo) and 25 BBs are enough to endure all the bad that Dunn brings every night?

When you start with the things you get EVERY NIGHT from Dunn (bad defense, lots of Ks, low BA, no baserunning, low motor, questionable concentration/focus) it would take a whole lot more than 100 BBs and 40 HRs (mostly solos) for me to want to have him anywhere near the starting lineup every night especially as one of the team's HIGHEST PAID every day players.

And has for hoping that there is still "improvement" to his game yet to come?? He has had 6 years as a starter now. With his body type he has long since peaked physically he is on the downturn physically. He hasn't improved any game component in first 6 years how can he be expected to improve now?

OPS Accuracy as Measure of Run Production?

MichaelRed — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 03:06:44 -0000

Two hitters both with 200 official ABs and no walks.

Player A: Hits 50 solo homeruns during the season but goes 0 for 150 with Runners in Scoring position.
Player B: Hits 0 homeruns but goes 50 for 150 with RISP with 50 singles. 0 for 50 in remaining ABs.

Not all Player B hits with RISP result in runs but most do and some of his hits drive in 2 runs. So for sake of example we assume Player A DRIVES IN 50 Runs (50 solo dingers) and Player B DRIVES IN 50 Runs also.

Both players "produce" 50 ACTUAL runs for their team but look at how their "stats" would differ.

Both players would have a .250 Batting Average (50 for 200) and a .250 OBP (50 for 200).

But look at their SLUGGING PCT. Player A would have a SLG of 1.000 Player B would have a SLG of .250

Player A OPS = 1.250
Player B OPS = .500

Something else very important, in each case with Player A, after his homerun bases are again empty. Rally effectively dead. After Player B drives in a run he is on first base and possibly teammates ahead of him on basepaths. Player A is effectively a "rally killing" influence with his outs with RISP and his homeruns but Player B keeps 50 rallies alive with his 50 singles and ends up on first base after his hit representing additional opportunity for TEAM to score MORE RUNS.

Player A and Player B both end up with 50 RBIs but their SLG is .750 apart.

In this example, BBs were left out of OBP but suppose you add to SLG a BB-driven OBP similar to a player like....say...Adam Dunn. You end up with a very healthy OPS. I think some of this is why a guy like Dunn can be an "OPS machine" but leave many of us feeling like he's just not worth it.

OBP and its Fallacy of Composition

MichaelRed — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 17:13:05 -0000

"A Logical Fallacy describes an error in reasoning that can lead you to a false conclusion."

One of the problems with saber heads and their reasoning about OPS (OBP + SLG) correlating with runs scored is the following:

And by the way this is CONCEPTUAL. Stat heads like to play the same games car salesman do when they ask you "What do you want your monthly payment to be?" Once you get a dollar amount you can then of course go through gyrations with numbers/formulas and beat it by 20 bucks to presumably get "the sale" (don't look at the down payment or years on loan though).......

As HORRIBLE as Dunn has been this year stat heads will say look at his OPS only Ross is higher. Then they will say OPS correlates with Run Scoring stronger than OBP, SLG or BA so the conclusion is simple - Ross hasn't played every daye, so Dunn has been the best offensive player on team.....(not really though).....

As a pitcher who would you rather walk? Ryan Freel or Adam Dunn? You'd rather walk Dunn. Who is more likely to cause trouble on the bases and presumably more likely to score starting from first base? Freel or Dunn? Freel of course. Freel on first base is of much higher value to the team than Dunn but OBP awards them equal value.

Similarly, suppose you have two outs and bases empty. A pitcher now has in essence 3 free bags at his disposal to use to get ONE out. If he tries to get ahead with the first batter (Dunn for example) but doesn't, then he just walks him - no sweat. That walk has NOWHERE NEAR the same value to the TEAM as a walk with no outs or a bases loaded walk, etc...etc... with Dunn on first and no risk of stealing second, the pitcher now still has 2 free bags at his disposal to get just ONE out. Again, he can pitch to get ahead, get batter to make a mistake....

In above situation, a homerun "threat" will be far more likely to pick up a tactical walk. It will count as a base for his OBP but it will be of far less value to team than a walk in other situations or to a different player.

If you've ever played Texas Hold 'em you know POSITION is everything. A pair of fours has one value when you're on the button and a whole different value when you're first to play.

Trying to place a value on tactical walks is dicey and difficult. So what do the saber formulas do? They just dismiss the different values. They dismiss the fact that walks have different values depending on player receiving walk or situation and treat them all as the same.....all comes out in the wash right? wrong

Ryan Freel walks will ALWAYS be of higher value than Adam Dunn walks. And Ryan Freel not being a homerun threat will always get fewer tactical walks based on situation/men on base/outs etc and his speed.......

Furthermore, apart from a bases empty situation a walk will ALWAYS be of less value than a "single". Hits advance runners at least one base but maybe more and force defense to execute. OBP treats singles and walks equally. OBP as a measure of value would say a player who received 100 walks had the same value to team as a player who had 100 singles. This couldn't be further from the truth.

Be wary of the slow "power hitter" with the high OBP - his OBP is artificially inflated. He is being given the open jump shot because the defense wants him to shoot. Check out the BA of a high OBP power hitter before making appraisal. If you see high OBP and relatively high BA (along with POWER) then you have a find. If you see OBP but peculiarly LOW BA....red flag it baby !!!

Dayton Daily News Article... and leaders, slackers, duds....

MichaelRed — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 15:23:04 -0000

http://www.daytondailynews.com/search/content/oh/story/sports/reds/2006/09/07/ddn090706arch.html

So those who dismiss intangibles, dismiss team leaders, dismiss chemistry etc.... read the above article and then think about it. And think about the last time you were on a sports team....

<<<<<
Is resolve giving way to resignation?

Dunn shrugged at the questions: "I have no idea. We're just playing bad at the wrong time. There's nothing we can do. I guess we could take extra batting practice, but that's not really going to do anything ..."

But as he left the clubhouse, the big outfielder showed he was going to get some swings in.

He picked up the golf bag by his locker, slung it over his shoulder and, with clubs rattling, headed for the door.

Might as well start working on the game he'll be playing when the postseason starts.
>>>>>>>>

Dunn grew up on a street named after his family. Dunn grew up being told that don't worry about getting a job as long as you can play ball you'll be fine. Dunn himself has said he has read two books in his entire life.

In Dunn's world when adversity comes, Dunn grabs the golf clubs. That got him to where he is today presumably............

But again, noone else on this Reds team will ever hit a ball into the river. I doubt anyone else on this Reds team grew up on a street named after its family.

If Dunn was just an afterthought "member" of this team it wouldn't be a problem. But by virtue of his personality, charisma, SALARY, role on team ... Dunn is one of the leaders of this team. And if noone else steps up than by default he and Griffey are THE leaders.

When your LEADERS are grabbing the golf clubs in early September this is not a good thing - particularly when you're headed to the links as leader in baseball in strikeouts, leader in baseball for errors for outfielders, hitting ~.230 with RISP and .240 on the year.....

Yes, this team's pitching has been a big problem for 5+ years but this is illustrative of how a more subtle problem has existed and still exists with this team. This everyday player mix is still not right and there are some individuals who have had plenty of chances...... and not raised their game and still not provided the leadership or onfield contributions that a baseball team needs from its highest paid players.

ok Redreporters.... Dunn revisited...

MichaelRed — Fri, 01 Sep 2006 02:38:08 -0000

After Dunn's July, folks in this forum and others were all George Grande giddy about Dunn and his new lighter bat, his shorter swing, his new approach (??)....etc..etc....

Me and a few other cranky strikeout haters went on record that we were not witnessing a Dunn rebirth. Instead we maintained that we were only witnessing a Dunn hot streak which we have seen plenty of times before (unfortunately most always followed by a Dunn cold streak of at least equal duration and intensity).

By the numbers.... how did Dunn follow up his hot July? In August.....

-Dunn hit a lofty .188 with 39 Ks in 101 ABs (39% K rate)
-His OBP was a weak .284 and SLG a weak .416

The past 4 months Dunn has hit
May .212
June .221
July .354
Aug .188 (could have been .158 if not for 3 hits off soft tossing hendrickson the other night)

Some of you are the same folks who say Dunn is no Kingman or Deer, based on the last 4 months.... if not Kingman/Deer than who?

So please, to quote JD in a recent one of his "diaries" ... "admitting you have a problem is the first step"... who is ready to come clean? Who is ready to come to the other side?

This is a player Reds are slated to pay 10+ million to next year - roughly one sixth of their entire payroll. This is a player who has NOT improved one iota in any part of his game in 6 years. His struggles now are the exact same as his first year in the bigs. Are any of you still prepared to take the position that Adam Dunn is a good fit for the Cincinnati Reds going forward?

Reds have Hopper, Denorfia, soon Bruce (I'll leave out Hollandsworth) and probably others slightly lower profile or easily obtainable all either waiting in the wings or easily available as substitutes. Isn't pitching still priority #1? Wouldn't 10 million buy a little extra pitching?

Who is ready to go on record? Who is ready to admit Dunn just isn't developing? Who is ready to join me in advocating that Dunn be traded ASAP?